Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Sentiment Warms Up, Zinc Ingot Supply Remains Loose - Zinc Weekly Report 2025/11/29" [1] - Analyst: Zhang Shijiao from the Non - ferrous Metals Group [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The current weak situation of the zinc industry does not resonate with the strong macro - sentiment expectation, which greatly reduces the attractiveness of zinc to speculative funds. The total position of SHFE zinc weighting has reached a new low since March 2025. It is expected that the zinc price will show a wide - range oscillation in the short term [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 0.04% at 22,436 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 188,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME zinc 3S fell 9 to 3,037 dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 222,400 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,370 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 50 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 10 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 15 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 65 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 151,000 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 67,600 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton [11] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 50,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 5,500 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was 165.44 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 30 dollars/ton [11] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,631.06 yuan/ton [11] - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 2,050 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was 61 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 279,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 644,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.54%, with a raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.30%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.37%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] 3.2 Macro Analysis - The content mainly presents multiple macro - economic charts, including the US fiscal revenue and expenditure, debt ratio, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [14][16][19][20] 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In September 2025, the zinc ore output was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 10.0% and a month - on - month change of - 8.8%. From January to September, the total zinc ore output was 2,739,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 3.5%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,340,600 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1% [25] - **Total Zinc Ore Supply**: In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5,023,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2% [27] - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the zinc ingot output was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 21.4% and a month - on - month change of 2.8%. From January to October, the total zinc ingot output was 5,686,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2% [33] - **Total Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5,967,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [35] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.54%, with a raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.30%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.37%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [39] - **Apparent Demand**: In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 5,804,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [41] 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 163,100 tons [52] - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In August 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 33,100 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 138,900 tons [55] 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 151,000 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 67,600 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton [60] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 50,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 5,500 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was 165.44 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 30 dollars/ton [63] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,631.06 yuan/ton [64] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc decreased, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [67]

低估值下成本上涨， PVC迎来反弹 PVC周报 2025/11/29 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2475元/吨，周同比上涨50元/吨；山东电石价格报2830元/吨，周同比上涨25元/吨；兰炭陕西中料870元/吨，周 同比持平。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润持续下滑，乙烯制利润低位运行，目前估值中性偏低。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率80.2%，环比上升1.4%；其中电石法83.6%，环比上升2.3%；乙烯法72.4%，环比下降0.7%。上周供应端负荷小幅上升， 主因河南联创、陕西金泰负荷提升，下周预期负荷进一步回升。11月整体负荷预期仍然在高位，且有多套装置试车投产，供应压力较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面印度BIS认证政策撤销，另外反倾销税率市场预期不落地，因此年末出 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global soybean new - crop production has been marginally lowered, with total production equal to total demand. Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, indicating that the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and soybean meal inventory is large, putting pressure on crushing margins. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range with cost support and pressured crushing margins [9][10][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, US soybeans traded in a range. China's continuous purchases and low domestic stock - to - sales ratio provided support, but the high global stock - to - sales ratio limited the upside. Brazil's soybean premium increased by about 15 cents per bushel, raising the cost of imported soybeans. Brazil's main growing areas were drier than normal in November, but rainfall is expected to recover in early December, though the southeast region may see less rain. The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has shifted from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand, with the global stock - to - sales ratio dropping from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently, providing a bottom - line support for global soybeans. Without significant problems in South American weather, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to remain volatile [9] - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, domestic soybean meal spot prices and basis fluctuated, and the futures market followed the cost with narrow - range movements. Oil mills' profit from soybean purchases was slightly in the red. Domestic soybean meal sales were decent, and提货 was at a relatively high level. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were higher than the same period last year, and the de - stocking process was slow. As of November 25, institutional statistics showed 876,000 tons of soybean purchases in September, 773,000 tons in October, 652,000 tons in November, and 465,000 tons in December. Current purchase plans suggest that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline, and with high - level提货, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [9] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. The core driving logic is the same as the core view of the report. No specific strategy is recommended for arbitrage [11] 2. Spot - Futures Market - **Spot Prices**: The document presents historical data charts of soybean meal spot prices in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot prices in Huangpu, Guangdong [17][18] - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Charts show the basis of soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract [20][21] - **Price Spreads**: Charts display various price spreads, including soybean meal 01 - 05, 03 - 05, 05 - rapeseed meal 05, and 01 - rapeseed meal 01 [22][23] - **Fund Positions**: Charts show the net long positions of managed funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal [25][27] 3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Charts present data on US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate [31][32] - **Weather Conditions**: There is a risk of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. Charts show precipitation in Argentine and Brazilian soybean - growing areas, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America and South America [34][37][39] - **US Soybean Processing and Export**: Charts show US soybean processing profit, monthly processing volume, NOPA soybean oil inventory, and US soybean export progress, including signed export contracts and shipment volume to China [45][48][50] - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Charts show monthly imports and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [52][53] - **China's Oil Mill Processing**: Charts show the processing volume of soybeans and rapeseeds in major Chinese oil mills [54][55] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Charts show the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills [58][59] - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory and forecast of soybean meal in major coastal oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills [61][62] - **Protein Meal Processing Profit**: Charts show the processing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the processing profit of imported rapeseeds in coastal areas [63][64] 5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: Charts show the cumulative sales volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [66] - **Breeding Profit**: Charts show the profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the profit per feather of white - feather broilers [67][68]

缺少强驱动， 单边上涨概率不高 棉花周报 2025/11/29 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，本周美棉花期货价格小幅反弹，截至周五美棉花期货3月合约收盘价报64.73美分/磅，较之前一周上涨0.8美分/磅， 涨幅1.25%。价差方面，美棉3-5月差震荡，报-1.24美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.02美分/磅。国内方面，本周郑棉价格延续震荡，截至周五 郑棉1月合约收盘价报13725元/吨，较之前一周上涨265元/吨，涨幅1.97%。中国棉花价格指数(CCIndex)3128B报14896元/吨，较之前一周上 涨105元/吨。基差走弱，报1189元/吨，较之前一周下跌132元/吨。郑棉1-5月差震荡，报40元/吨，较之前一周上涨25元/吨。 ◆ 行业信息：据Mysteel最新公布的数据显示，截至11月28日当周，纺纱厂开机率为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Last week, stainless steel prices rebounded, boosting market confidence. The supply side saw high - level production scheduling by steel mills and a steady increase in spot arrivals. The demand side showed marginal improvement, with downstream enterprises' low - price restocking and traders' inventory - building activities increasing market activity. However, the nickel - iron price on the cost side remained at 880 yuan/nickel point, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing production enthusiasm. Despite the demand recovery, the inventory pressure caused by high supply was still significant, and the inventory clearance speed was slow due to the impact of the futures order delivery cycle. Additionally, the net export volume of stainless steel has been shrinking since the second half of the year, further exacerbating the inventory pressure. Overall, the market lacks clear upward momentum, and it is expected that stainless steel prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot and Futures Market**: On November 28, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,365 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61% [12]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to October. In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [12]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%. In October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively, while the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 21.2% [12]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11,076 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 189,800 tons, 669,200 tons, and 227,100 tons respectively, with the inventory of 300 - series increasing by 1.58% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 60,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.19%, and the unloading volume was 85,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.14% [12]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 885 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Ironworks in Fujian were currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both single - side and arbitrage strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [14]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On November 28, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,365 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61% [20]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 65 yuan (- 66) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about 135 yuan (- 46) higher than the main contract. The trading volume on the disk was 220,005 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.85% [23]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 70 (+10), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 145 (+0) [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to October [31]. - In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [34]. - It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in October was 440,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 103,300 tons in October, with a month - on - month increase of 7.92% [37]. - In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 21.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%. The cumulative net export from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [40]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%. In October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60% [45]. - In October, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively, while the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 21.2% [48]. - In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 16.30% and a year - on - year increase of 0.00%. The automobile sales volume in October was 3.3221 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82% [51]. 3.5 Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11,076 tons [56]. - The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 189,800 tons, 669,200 tons, and 227,100 tons respectively, with the inventory of 300 - series increasing by 1.58% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 60,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.19%, and the unloading volume was 85,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.14% [59]. 3.6 Cost Side - In October, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.50% and a year - on - year increase of 11.81%. Currently, the quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.9976 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% [64]. - Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 885 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Ironworks in Fujian were currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [67]. - Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 52 yuan/dry ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. The high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan/50 base tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in October was 825,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.54% [70]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 844 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 6.23% [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Currently, the surplus pressure on nickel remains significant. However, with the stabilization of ferronickel prices and the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may shift to a volatile pattern in the short term. Future focus should be on the trends of ferronickel and ore prices. In terms of operations, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and make judgments after the ferronickel prices stabilize. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M nickel contract is expected to be between 13,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: This week, nickel ore prices remained stable. In the Philippines, the cost inversion of domestic ferronickel smelters intensified, leading to a significant weakening of ore demand. However, miners still tried to support prices in the short term, so ore prices did not decline significantly. In the future, ore prices may face downward pressure due to weakening terminal demand. In Indonesia, some areas in Sulawesi entered the rainy season, reducing the production efficiency of some mines. With weakening demand and a lower HMM benchmark price, ore prices have a downward impetus. The wet - process ore market remained relatively dull, with prices mainly stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: This week, terminal consumption was weak, and the negative feedback effect drove ferronickel prices to decline continuously. As the downstream entered the traditional off - season, stainless - steel terminal consumption was weak, and industry inventories were high. Many stainless - steel enterprises planned to cut production at the end of the year, reducing the procurement demand for ferronickel. Some traders sold at lower prices, and the market quotation and transaction center further declined. In the future, the ferronickel production profit level is at an absolute low, and there is downstream procurement demand when the ferronickel price is around 880 yuan/nickel. It is expected that ferronickel prices will gradually stabilize [11]. - **Intermediate products**: This week, the overall transaction of intermediate products was average, but the coefficient price remained high under cost support. In terms of supply, sulfur prices remained strong, and sellers were more willing to support prices. However, the demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year. The overall market transaction was rather cold [11]. - **Refined nickel**: After hitting a new phased low this week, nickel prices rebounded in the short term as the macro - atmosphere improved. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract on Friday was 117,080 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from last week, and the LME nickel price on Friday was 14,820 US dollars/ton, up 1.37% from last week. In terms of the macro - aspect, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut continued to rise this week, and market risk appetite gradually recovered. In the spot market, prices fluctuated with the futures market, and the premium and discount remained generally stable [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures nickel price trend**: Nickel prices rebounded this week. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract on Friday was 117,080 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from last week, and the LME nickel price on Friday was 14,820 US dollars/ton, up 1.37% from last week [17]. - **Nickel spot premium and discount**: The spot premium and discount were stable with a slight upward trend. As of November 28, the average spot premium of Russian nickel against the nearby contract was 400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 4,700 - 4,800 yuan/ton, with the average price up 550 yuan/ton from last week [21]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: Ferronickel prices continued to be weak. As of November 28, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 879 - 887 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 8 yuan/nickel point from the same period last week. Nickel sulfate prices gradually weakened. As of November 28, the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was reported at 27,660 - 27,800 yuan/ton, with the average price down 350 yuan/ton from the same period last week [24]. 3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: Nickel ore prices remained stable. On November 28, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 52.02 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week, the delivered price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week, and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines was reported at 57 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week [33]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic refined nickel monthly output was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with September [48]. - **Demand**: The report shows relevant data on stainless - steel production, inventory, and terminal demand in the manufacturing and real - estate sectors, but no specific demand summary is provided [50][52]. - **Import and export**: Not specifically summarized in the text, only relevant data charts are presented [54]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 2,382 tons to 308,476 tons [57]. - **Cost**: The report presents relevant data on the production cost and profit rate of different refined - nickel production processes, but no specific cost summary is provided [59]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows data on the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China, but no specific supply summary is provided [63]. - **Demand**: The report shows data on the production volume of ternary power batteries and ternary precursors, but no specific demand summary is provided [66]. - **Cost and price**: The report presents data on the production cost, price, and profit rate of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials, but no specific summary is provided [68]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides data on global nickel supply outlook and quarterly supply - demand balance forecasts from 2023 to 2025. Overall, the supply exceeded demand from 2023 - 2025, with the surplus increasing year by year [73].

短期供给扰动，预计 锡价偏强震荡 锡周报 2025/11/29 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：10月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，原料端供应紧缺略有缓解。但短期刚果（金）冲突恶化，对锡矿运输造成扰动，市场担忧情绪有所 升温。根据中国海关公布的数据，10月锡矿砂及其精矿进口量11632实物吨（折合约4938金属吨），同比下降15.74%，环比增加43.36%。其 中从缅甸的进口量为2367吨（折合约861金属吨），同比下降43.64%，环比增加1.50%；除缅甸外10月从其他国家合计进口量为9266吨（折合 约4077金属吨），同比下降5.90%，环比增加57.05%。 ◆ 供给端：缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进度缓慢，出口量维持低位，云南地区冶炼企业原材料紧张现象仍存，短期开工率持稳，但进一步上行动力不足。 江西地区则因废料显著减少，粗锡供应不足，精锡 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - From the perspective of industrial data, the visible inventory of lead ore has increased, but the smelting start - up rate of primary lead has declined, while that of secondary lead has continued to rise. The weekly start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has increased marginally, and the visible inventory of domestic lead ingots has decreased marginally. In terms of funds, after two consecutive weeks of decline, the lead price has returned to the oscillation center of 17,000 yuan. Considering the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals industry is relatively positive, and the short - term lead price is expected to be strong [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.77% at 17,087 yuan/ton with a total unilateral trading position of 73,500 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME Lead 3S rose 13 to $1,990/ton with a total position of 166,200 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots and secondary refined lead was 16,975 yuan/ton, with a flat price difference between refined and scrap. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,900 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly to 35,300 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 26,300 tons, with an internal primary basis of - 65 yuan/ton and a spread of - 35 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 264,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 140,400 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was - $38.94/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $82.8/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 143.13 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $135/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 102,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.39% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,167,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. The net import of silver concentrate in October was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,507,900 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. In October, China's lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total production was 1,395,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. The net import of lead - containing ore in October was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import was 1,303,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total supply of lead concentrate was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative supply was 2,698,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In August 2025, the global lead ore production was 383,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to August, the total production was 3,008,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.1% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - $135/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting and Production**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. In October 2025, China's primary lead production was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,186,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 102,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. In October 2025, China's secondary lead production was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 3,235,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33]. - **Net Export and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 6,517,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.39%. In October 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 6,526,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40]. - **Battery Export**: In October 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1,614,520 units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries for dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the production decline of electric bicycles directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Gap**: In October 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Gap**: In August 2025, the overseas supply - demand gap of refined lead was a shortage of - 19,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas supply - demand gap of refined lead was a shortage of - 46,900 tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Basis and Spread**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly to 35,300 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 26,300 tons, with an internal primary basis of - 65 yuan/ton and a spread of - 35 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts [71]. - **Overseas Basis and Spread**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 264,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 140,400 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was - $38.94/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $82.8/ton [74]. - **Internal - External Spread**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 143.13 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai Lead decreased significantly, the net long position of investment funds in LME Lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, the short - term guidance is bullish [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows limited marginal changes in the current situation, with a weak supply - demand pattern and non - prominent contradictions. The disk price is easily affected by the capital sentiment of other new energy varieties, mostly showing following or compensatory fluctuations [16]. - The polysilicon market has obvious contradictions between reality and expectations, as well as among industrial upstream and downstream. The supply - demand and inventory situation remains weak, and the price is affected by factors such as warehouse receipt cancellation and the expected landing of platform companies [18]. Summaries by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: The weekly output of polysilicon decreased to 2.73 tons, the DMC output increased to 4.99 tons, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy from January to October was 1576.00 tons, and the cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to October was 59.80 tons [14]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 48.14 tons, with a decrease of 17.87 tons compared to the previous period, mainly due to the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts [14]. - **Price**: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon was 9350 yuan/ton, and the 421 was 9800 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 9130 yuan/ton [15]. - **Cost**: The average cost in Xinjiang was 8504.17 yuan/ton, Yunnan was 9766.67 yuan/ton, Sichuan was 9720 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia was 9000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 8.90 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons compared to the previous period [15]. 02. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged at 9350 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 421 was 9800 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 9130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [23]. - **Polysilicon**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical polysilicon N - type re -投料 was 52.3 yuan/kg, and the N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, both remaining unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2601) closed at 56425 yuan/ton, up 3065 yuan/ton [26]. 03. Industrial Silicon - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 8.90 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons compared to the previous period. In October 2025, the output was 40.48 tons, and the cumulative output from January to October decreased by 63.79 tons year - on - year [31]. - **Output in Main Producing Areas**: Not specifically summarized in text, but data is presented in relevant charts [33][35]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price and silicon coal price in the main producing areas remained stable week - on - week. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8504.17 yuan/ton, Yunnan was 9766.67 yuan/ton, Sichuan was 9720 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia was 9000 yuan/ton [44][47]. - **Visible Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 48.14 tons, a decrease of 17.87 tons compared to the previous period. Factory inventory increased by 0.02 tons, market inventory remained unchanged, and registered warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 17.89 tons [50]. 04. Polysilicon - **Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon was 2.73 tons, showing a continuous decline. The output in November was 11.46 tons, and the cumulative output from January to November was 118.97 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.07% [55]. - **Capacity Utilization and Scheduled Production**: The capacity utilization rate in October was 50.09%, up 0.66 percentage points month - on - month. The expected output in December is 11.35 tons, showing a continuous decline [58]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 28.21 tons (Baichuan Yingfu口径), and the inventory was 28.1 tons (SMM口径) [61]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon was 41640.63 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 8464.63 yuan/ton [64]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The weekly output was 12.02GW, showing a decline. The output in November was 54.37GW, and the cumulative output from January to November was 603.19GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35%. The inventory was 19.5GW, showing a slight increase, and the predicted output in December is 45.7GW, showing a significant decline [67][70]. - **Battery Cell**: The output in October was 59.27GW, a decrease of 1.7GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate in October was 57.79%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to October was 567.11GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.73%. The inventory was 12.05GW, showing an increase, and the expected output in November is 58.68GW, showing a slight decrease [76][79]. - **Module**: The output in October was 48.1GW, a decrease of 1.8GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate in October was 46.85%, a decrease of 1.85 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to October was 477.6GW, a year - on - year increase of 0.57%. The finished product inventory was 30.2GW, remaining stable, and the expected output in December is 39.99GW, showing a significant decline [84][87]. 05. Organic Silicon - **Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the DMC output was 4.99 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons compared to the previous period. The output in October was 20.09 tons, and the cumulative output from January to October was 206.27 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.39% [94]. - **Price and Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of organic silicon was 13100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the DMC gross profit was 1128.13 yuan/ton [97]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the DMC inventory was 4.47 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons compared to the previous period [100]. 06. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of November 28, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21910 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, and the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21330 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The cumulative output from January to October was 1576.00 tons, a year - on - year increase of 254.20 tons or 19.23%. The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60.2%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.5% [105][108]. - **Exports**: The cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to October was 59.80 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.97 tons or 1.66% [111]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inventory of iron ore remains high, but due to limited availability of some resources, structural contradictions still exist, providing some support for spot prices. - In November, there were no significant macro - events. Starting from December, the macro - impact is expected to gradually increase. - Overall, iron ore prices are expected to move within an oscillatory range [11][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The total global iron ore shipment volume was 32.784 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.374 million tons, a decrease of 2.713 million tons. Australia's shipment volume was 18.396 million tons, a decrease of 2.109 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 15.536 million tons, a decrease of 3.194 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 7.978 million tons, a decrease of 0.604 million tons. The total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 29.395 million tons, an increase of 5.696 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 28.171 million tons, an increase of 5.482 million tons [11][13]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 0.016 million tons from the previous week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week [11][13]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 159.0122 million tons, an increase of 1.6637 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4406 million tons, an increase of 0.0067 million tons [11][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spread**: The PB - Super Special powder price spread was 111 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 3.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price spread was 91 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price spread was 147 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price spread was - 10.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.5 yuan/ton [17][19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: The pellet feed ratio was 14.52%, a change of - 0.03 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.22%, a change of - 0.23 percentage points. The sinter feed ratio was 73.27%, a change of + 0.27 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2145 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 10 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2080 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [23][25]. - **Profit**: The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a change of - 2.6 percentage points from the previous week; the import profit of PB powder according to the Steel Union's data was - 8.18 yuan/wet ton [26][28]. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 152.1012 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 1.5547 million tons. The pellet inventory was 302,350 tons, a change of + 91,800 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 1.28443 million tons, a change of + 360,000 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.97937 million tons, a change of + 163,300 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 63.0746 million tons, a change of + 0.8122 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 59.8703 million tons, a change of - 0.1998 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills this week was 8.94248 million tons, a change of - 0.05875 million tons from the previous week [32][35][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: The latest shipment volume from Australia to China through 19 ports was 15.27 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 2.851 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 7.931 million tons, a change of - 0.548 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment volume to China was 4.975 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.497 million tons. BHP Billiton's shipment volume to China was 4.445 million tons, a decrease of 1.045 million tons. Vale's shipment volume was 5.462 million tons, a decrease of 1.254 million tons. FMG's shipment volume to China was 4.002 million tons, a decrease of 0.184 million tons [47][50][53]. - **Arrival and Import**: The latest arrival volume at 45 ports was 28.171 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.482 million tons. In October, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 19.8492 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2656 million tons [47][59]. - **Domestic Mines**: The latest domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 60.77%, a change of - 0.02 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 474,800 tons, a change of - 20,000 tons [47][65]. 3.5 Demand Side - The daily average pig iron output in China was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 0.016 million tons from the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.3058 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.0066 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 2.8943 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0225 million tons [67][70][73]. 3.6 Basis - As of November 28, the calculated basis of iron ore BRBF was 44.83 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.34% [75][78].