金融期权 2025-07-25 金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金融期权策略早报概要： （1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股、中小盘股和创业板股表现为偏多头震荡上行的市场行情。 表3：期权因子—量仓PCR | 期权品种 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | 成交量 | 量PCR | 持仓量 | 仓PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （万张) | | （万张） | | PCR | 变化 | PCR | 变化 | | 上证50ETF | 98.71 | -106.85 | 105.03 | -41.25 | 0.89 | 0.30 | 1.09 | -0.23 | | 上证30 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies dominated by sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical futures showed different price movements, trading volumes, and open interest changes on July 26, 2025. For example, crude oil (SC2509) closed at 507 with a 0.56% increase, while liquefied gas (PG2509) closed at 4,037 with a 1.08% increase [4] 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different energy - chemical options were presented, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options was 0.55 with a 0.07 change, and the open interest PCR was 0.51 with a - 0.03 change [5] 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different energy - chemical options were analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil options was 640 and the support level was 500 [6] 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different energy - chemical options was provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options was 28.965, and the weighted implied volatility was 33.64 with a 0.07 change [7] 5. Strategies and Recommendations Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will increase oil supply in August, and the US supply rebounds with oil prices. The crude oil market showed a short - term weak trend. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **Liquefied Gas**: The LPG futures showed a weak trend. The demand side has potential negative feedback risks. Option strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Port inventory increased, and the market showed a weak rebound. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory decreased, and the market showed a weak and narrow - range oscillation. Option strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: PP inventory showed different trends, and the market was weak. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Domestic synthetic rubber production increased, and the market showed a low - level consolidation trend. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12] Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: PTA load remained stable, and the market was weak. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12] Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: The capacity utilization rate changed, and the market showed a bullish trend. Option strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Soda Ash**: Inventory was at a high level, and the market showed a bullish trend. Option strategies include constructing a bullish call spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] Urea Options - Urea inventory showed different trends, and the market oscillated under bearish pressure. Option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides strategies for different metal options, including constructing seller neutral volatility strategies for non - ferrous metals with a fluctuating and strengthening trend, building bullish option bull spread combinations for the rapidly rising black series, and creating spot hedging strategies for precious metals like gold which is in a high - level consolidation and bullish state [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures are presented, such as copper's latest price of 79,290 with a - 0.69% change, and lithium carbonate's price increase of 7.21% to 76,680 [3] 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different metal options are shown, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For example, copper's volume PCR is 0.38 with a 0.05 change, and open interest PCR is 0.68 with a 0.01 change [4] 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different metal options are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, copper's pressure point is 82,000 and support point is 75,000 [5] 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different metal options is provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, copper's at - the - money implied volatility is 12.96%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility is - 2.81 [6] 5. Strategies and Recommendations for Different Metals Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Based on fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, it is recommended to construct a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Strategies include a bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc/Lead**: Similar to aluminum, it involves a bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: A short - volatility option combination with a short delta and a spot long - hedging strategy are suggested [10] - **Tin**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are recommended [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: A bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination with a long delta, and a spot long - hedging strategy are proposed [11] Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: For gold, a short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended. For silver, based on its market conditions, corresponding option strategies are also provided [12] Black Series - **Rebar**: A bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination with a long delta, and a spot long - covered call strategy are recommended [13] - **Iron Ore**: A bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination with a long delta, and a spot long - collar strategy are suggested [14] - **Ferroalloys**: A bullish option bull spread combination and a short - volatility strategy are recommended for manganese silicon, and corresponding strategies are also provided for industrial silicon and polysilicon [15] - **Glass**: A bullish option bull spread combination, a short - volatility option combination, and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [16] 6. Metal Option Charts - Charts for different metal options are provided, including price trends, option volume and open interest, option volume and open interest PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, and pressure and support levels, which visually present the market conditions of various metal options [18][38][57]

| 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏强震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖反弹回升震 荡上行，棉花多头上涨，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 农产品期权 2025-07-25 农产品期权策略早报 2025-7-25 2 农产品期权研究 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

文字早评 2025/07/25 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、国务院总理李强将于 7 月 26 日出席在上海举行的 2025 世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级 别会议开幕式并致辞； 2、国务院国资委：优化国有资产增量投向，调整存量结构，带头抵制"内卷式"竞争，加强重组整合； 3、郑商所：近期影响玻璃、纯碱市场的不确定性因素较多 提醒投资者理性参与 合规交易； 4、价格法修正草案公开征求意见 规范市场价格秩序、治理"内卷式"竞争； 5、马斯克称特斯拉接下来可能面临几个艰难的季度，预计全年资本支出超过 90 亿美元，此前预计超过 100 亿美元； 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.05%/-0.19%/-0.90%/-1.58%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.38%/-1.07%/-3.00%/-4.70%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.38%/-1.23%/-3.97%/-6.39%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.11%/0.15%/0.20%/0.20%。 消息方面：1、欧元区 7 月制造业 PMI 初值为 49.8，预期 49.7，前值 49.5；服务 ...

有色金属日报 2025-7-25 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 欧洲通过对美关税反制计划，美元指数企稳，铜价震荡回调，昨日伦铜收跌 0.8%至 9854 美元/吨， 沪铜主力合约收至 79290 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 50 至 124775 吨，注销仓单比例提高 至 15.9%，Cash/3M 贴水 68 美元/吨。国内方面，电解铜社会库存较周一下滑，昨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, methanol, urea, rubber, PVC, styrene, polyolefins, and polyester. It believes that in the context of low Cushing inventories, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum, but the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. For other products, it provides specific analyses based on factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory, and gives corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.74, or 1.13%, to $66.16; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.69, or 1.00%, to $69.36; INE main crude oil futures rose 6.60 yuan, or 1.27%, to 527 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.74 million barrels to 12.97 million barrels, a 6.02% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 1.19 million barrels to 7.87 million barrels, a 13.15% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.31 million barrels to 23.70 million barrels, a 1.34% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.14 million barrels to 44.54 million barrels, a 0.32% decrease [1]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Given the low Cushing inventories, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and it is recommended to buy on dips and take profits [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the 09 contract rose 69 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 48 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15 [4]. - **Analysis**: The market is significantly driven by news, with increased volatility and operational difficulty. The upstream operating rate continues to decline, and profits have slightly decreased but remain at a relatively high level. Overseas plant operating rates have returned to medium - high levels, and market fluctuations have narrowed. The port olefin load has increased this week, while traditional demand is in the off - season, with the operating rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid decreasing and those of chlorides and MTBE increasing. The overall demand is weak. After the methanol price decline, downstream profits have been repaired but remain at a low level, and the methanol spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside is expected to be limited. The domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see after a sharp rise [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the 09 contract rose 12 yuan/ton to 1785 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 15 [6]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the deepening of the domestic anti - involution policy, the domestic industrial products have risen sharply, and urea has also increased significantly. However, most fixed - bed plants have completed technological upgrades, and it is mainly affected by short - term sentiment. The domestic operating rate has slightly decreased, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, with cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The compound fertilizer operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and the subsequent operating rate will continue to increase, which will support the demand for urea. Export containerization continues, and port inventories continue to rise. The domestic urea supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. Currently, the urea valuation is neutral to low, and the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. It is more advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips and not to chase the market when the price rises [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: After continuous rises, NR and RU showed volatile trends, and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has weakened [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may contribute to rubber production cuts, the seasonal trend usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [15]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Rubber prices are likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view should be maintained, and positions should be built at appropriate times. In the short term, due to the large increase, the risk of a pullback should be guarded against. A neutral approach is recommended, with quick entry and exit. There is an opportunity to increase positions in the spread operation of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 87 yuan to 5238 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 5090 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 148 (-67) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 114 (+4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The cost side remains stable, the overall PVC operating rate has increased, the downstream operating rate has decreased, factory inventories have decreased, and social inventories have increased. Corporate profits have continued to improve, the number of maintenance operations has gradually decreased, and production is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of plants will be put into operation. The domestic downstream operating rate is at a five - year low and is still in the off - season. The anti - dumping extension in India has marginally improved the pessimistic expectations, and the cost support has weakened. The pessimistic expectations in the fundamentals have improved due to the extension of the anti - dumping in India, but there are still pressures in supply - demand and valuation. In the short term, the price is strong under the stimulation of the anti - dumping extension and anti - involution sentiment, and the risk of sentiment fading should be guarded against [13]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [15]. - **Analysis**: After the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the China Iron and Steel Association issued statements on the anti - involution policy, the coal sector rose and then stabilized, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The bullish view is based on demand expectations and production cut expectations, while the bearish view is based on the falsification of demand. The cost side of pure benzene has increased its operating rate, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply - side profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the styrene operating rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased significantly. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products has fluctuated and increased. In the short term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price is expected to follow the cost side [15][17]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [19]. - **Analysis**: The black sector rose and then stabilized, and the cost side still has support. The polyethylene spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventories are fluctuating at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. In the seasonal off - season, the demand - side agricultural film orders are fluctuating at a low level, and the overall operating rate is declining. The short - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - driven downward trend to the high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. With the commissioning of the Huizhou ExxonMobil ethylene plant in July, the polyethylene price is expected to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [20]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, with the marginal return of propylene supply. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. In the seasonal off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the polypropylene price is expected to be bearish in July [20]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 96 yuan to 6956 yuan, the PX CFR rose 14 dollars to 856 dollars, the basis was 87 (+16) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 108 (+24) yuan [22]. - **Analysis**: The PX maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA maintenance season is also over, and the load level is high. The processing fee has been repaired, and the inventory level is low. Even though the polyester and terminal sectors are in the off - season, the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following the crude oil price [22][23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 66 yuan to 4850 yuan, the East China spot price rose 5 yuan to 4815 yuan, the basis was 0 (-2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 26 (+22) yuan [24]. - **Analysis**: The PTA load remains unchanged. The downstream load has increased. The social inventory has increased. The spot processing fee has decreased, and the futures processing fee has increased. In the future, the supply - side maintenance volume in July is small, and new plants will be put into operation, with expected continuous inventory accumulation. The PTA processing fee repair space is limited. The demand side is under pressure in the off - season. Due to the low inventory level and the repair of the processing fee, the upward negative feedback pressure is expected to be small. The PXN has support under the pattern improvement brought about by PTA commissioning. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips following PX [24]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 49 yuan to 4485 yuan, the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 4530 yuan, the basis was 58 (-4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 3 (-3) yuan [25]. - **Analysis**: The supply - side load has increased, the downstream load has increased, the import arrival forecast is 15.7 million tons, the East China departure volume on July 23 was 0.8 million tons, and the warehouse - out volume has increased. The port inventory has decreased by 2 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit is - 279 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit is - 556 yuan, and the coal - based production profit is 955 yuan. The cost side of ethylene remains unchanged, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines has increased. The overseas and domestic maintenance plants are gradually starting, and the downstream operating rate is continuously declining due to the off - season. The port inventory reduction is expected to gradually slow down. The valuation is relatively high compared to the same period. The maintenance season is gradually ending, and the fundamentals are changing from strong to weak. However, recently, under the consistent weak expectations, the actual operating rate has exceeded expectations. The unexpected situation of Saudi plants has led to a decrease in import expectations, and multiple domestic plants have had unexpected situations, combined with the low arrival volume, resulting in a reduction in low - level inventories. The short - term valuation has upward support [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. labor market remains resilient as the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19, 2025, was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. - Despite Powell completing his remaining term, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually shift to a more accommodative stance. Given that international silver prices tend to perform strongly when the Fed's stance is dovish, the current precious metals strategy recommends maintaining a bullish outlook, with a focus on long opportunities in silver. The reference trading range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9095 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Precious Metals Prices**: Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.78% to 778.08 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.55% to 9369.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold declined 0.16% to 3368.10 dollars/ounce, while COMEX Silver rose 0.27% to 39.33 dollars/ounce [2]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.43%, and the U.S. Dollar Index was at 97.47. Among global stock indices, the Dow Jones Index decreased by 0.70%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.07%, the NASDAQ Index rose by 0.18%, the London FTSE 100 climbed 0.85%, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index advanced 1.59% [2][4]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold Data**: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) dropped 0.77% to 3371.30 dollars/ounce, with a 19.07% decline in trading volume to 20.67 million lots, and a 1.22% increase in open interest to 44.85 million lots. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) decreased 1.79% to 778.74 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 17.55% to 43.78 million lots, and open interest fell 3.92% to 42.44 million lots. The inventory increased 1.74% to 29.36 tons, and the settled funds outflow was 5.64% to 52.875 billion yuan [6]. - **Silver Data**: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.59% to 39.29 dollars/ounce, open interest (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased 5.33% to 17.15 million lots, and inventory decreased 0.08% to 15483 tons. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) dropped 1.12% to 9386.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 19.57% to 159.93 million lots, and open interest fell 3.04% to 96.46 million lots. The inventory increased 0.02% to 1188.72 tons, and the settled funds outflow was 4.12% to 24.444 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Price - Related Charts and Analysis - **Gold**: There are multiple charts showing the relationship between COMEX Gold price and the U.S. Dollar Index, real interest rates, volume, open interest, and the near - far month structure of COMEX Gold and Shanghai Gold, as well as the price difference between London Gold and COMEX Gold, and Au(T + D) and Shanghai Gold [8][11][16][18]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, there are charts depicting the relationship between COMEX Silver price and volume, open interest, the near - far month structure of COMEX Silver and Shanghai Silver, and the price difference between London Silver and COMEX Silver, and Ag(T + D) and Shanghai Silver [27][29][31]. 3.4 Fund Position and Price Relationship - There are charts showing the relationship between the net long positions of COMEX Gold and Silver managed funds and their prices, indicating the influence of fund positions on precious metals prices [40]. 3.5 ETF Holdings - The total holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 2.29 tons to 957.09 tons, and the total holdings of the SLV Silver ETF remained unchanged at 15207.82 tons [4]. 3.6 Internal - External Price Difference - **Gold**: On July 24, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 0.74 yuan/gram (3.23 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.64 yuan/gram (7.12 dollars/ounce). - **Silver**: The SHFE - COMEX price difference was 346.62 yuan/kilogram (1.51 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 372.20 yuan/kilogram (1.62 dollars/ounce) [50].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet. The domestic soybean import cost is oscillating and slightly rising due to a single - supply source. The soybean or protein supply is still in surplus, and the domestic soybean meal market has a complex situation of multiple long and short factors [2][4]. - The palm oil market is influenced by various factors. The US biodiesel policy and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price, but the high - level production forecast, high production in producing areas, and other factors limit the upside space [6][9]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline if the external market price does not rebound significantly [12]. - The cotton market has shown a partial rebound, but the downstream consumption is average, and the potential issuance of sliding - scale import quotas is a negative factor [15]. - The egg market is currently stable with limited trading. The short - term price is guided by the spot price and lacks a clear trend, while the post - festival contracts after September may offer short - selling opportunities [18][19]. - The pig market has a short - term divergence between futures and spot prices. The market has expectations of capacity reduction in the future, but the hedging pressure is high. Attention should be paid to the pressure after the seasonal rebound [22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: North American weather is favorable, limiting the upside space of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal futures prices fell at night on Thursday, and the spot prices dropped significantly. The downstream inventory days are higher than the same period last year. The domestic soybean import cost is affected by a single - supply source and is oscillating slightly upward [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean meal market has multiple long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the higher end, waiting for new drivers from the Sino - US tariff situation and the supply side [4]. Oil - **Important Information**: The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil shows different trends in different periods. The production in July has increased. The MPOB expects an increase in the production and export of Malaysian palm oil in 2025, while the GAPKI expects a decrease in Indonesia's palm oil exports. The domestic palm oil is oscillating, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in the three major oils have changed slightly [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The palm oil price is rising due to the optimistic sentiment in the commodity market. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the upside space is limited by factors such as high - level production expectations, high production in producing areas, and uncertain RVO rules. It should be regarded as an oscillating market [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose slightly on Thursday. The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed different trends. The sugarcane yield and sugar content in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in June [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market is in a good import profit window, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate on Thursday. The spot price of cotton in Xinjiang increased slightly. The weather in major cotton - producing areas is favorable, and the expected yield per unit of new cotton in 2025 is expected to increase [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the downstream consumption is average. The potential issuance of sliding - scale import quotas in July - August is a negative factor [15]. Egg - **Important Information**: The egg prices in most regions are stable, with only a few adjustments. The inventory of eggs in the market is small, the demand in the sales areas is stable, and the trading volume is average [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High temperatures have reduced the egg - laying rate, and the supply pressure has eased. The short - term price is guided by the spot price and lacks a clear trend. The post - festival contracts after September may offer short - selling opportunities [19]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig prices continued to fall on Thursday. The market supply is sufficient, and the terminal consumption is weak [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: There is a short - term divergence between futures and spot prices in the pig market. The market has expectations of capacity reduction in the future, but the hedging pressure is high. Attention should be paid to the pressure after the seasonal rebound [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, and the prices of finished products continue to be strong. The cost side provides significant support for steel prices. With low inventory levels and supply - demand stimuli, the futures market is expected to strengthen. The market should focus on policy signals, terminal demand repair, and cost support [3]. - The short - term price fluctuations of various commodities are mainly driven by market sentiment and expectations. It is difficult to determine if the prices have reached a short - term peak. Speculators should be rational, and industrial players can consider hedging [9][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.610%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2995 tons, and the main contract open interest decreased by 16348 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai changed differently. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3456 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.523%). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 296 tons, and the main contract open interest increased by 12461 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai also had different changes [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side supports steel prices. In the short term, supply - demand factors and low inventory levels are expected to drive the market up. The demand for rebar increased slightly this week, and inventory decreased, while the demand for hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The inventories of both are at a five - year low. The market should pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 811.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00), and the open interest decreased by 17104 lots to 56.28 million lots. The weighted open interest was 103.95 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 29.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.46% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Market Analysis**: Recent overseas iron ore shipments rebounded, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average molten iron output was high but decreased slightly. Port and steel mill inventories increased slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to demand and supply changes [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.17% at 5948 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5860 yuan/ton, with a premium of 102 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.34% at 5754 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, with a discount of 54 yuan/ton [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: The long - term fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are bearish, but short - term price fluctuations are dominated by market sentiment. It is recommended that speculators be rational, and industrial players can consider hedging [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 24, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 1.73% at 9690 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China increased, with different basis relationships [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Industrial silicon still faces over - supply and insufficient demand. The short - term price may be affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of a short - term peak [12]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China changed differently. The total inventory of national float glass decreased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to avoid short positions. In the long term, the price trend depends on real estate policies and supply - demand balance [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but the medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction remains. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term and wait for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment cools down [16].