1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The positive news of Iranian plant shutdowns has materialized, leading to a shift in market sentiment. The market has rebounded significantly, and the inter - month spread has strengthened rapidly. The short - term market bottom is expected to have emerged. However, there is still some pressure on the 01 contract inventory, and the reduction in imports will mainly be reflected in the 05 contract [11]. - The supply is expected to remain high, which will limit the further upward space of methanol prices. After the positive news is fully priced in, the market is expected to shift to a volatile adjustment phase. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading and focus on positive spread trading opportunities in the inter - month spread [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Review**: The positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns has been realized, the market sentiment has changed, the futures price has rebounded sharply, and the inter - month spread has strengthened rapidly. The 01 contract still has some inventory pressure, and the reduction in imports will be mainly reflected in the 05 contract [11]. - **Supply**: The enterprise operating rate is 89.09%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%, at a high level compared to the same period last year, with short - term room for further improvement. The latest arrival volume is 22.54 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.4 tons [11]. - **Demand**: The port olefin operating rate is 87.09%, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. The operating rate of traditional demand MTBE remains flat, while the others have increased, indicating an improvement in downstream demand [11]. - **Fundamentals**: Port inventory is being depleted at an accelerated pace, the 1 - 5 spread has bottomed out and rebounded, the 5 - 9 spread has increased more significantly, the basis has strengthened, and the futures market logic has started to reverse. Raw material prices remain strong, and coal - based production profits have fallen to the seasonal average level [11]. - **Valuation**: As methanol prices rebound, MTO profits have declined. Currently, methanol valuation is relatively neutral [11]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 136.35 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.58 tons. The improvement in market sentiment and the decrease in arrivals have led to an accelerated depletion of inventory. Enterprise inventory is 37.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 tons, at a low level compared to the same period last year. Enterprise orders to be delivered are 23.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56 tons [11]. - **Market Logic**: After the shutdown of overseas plants, the market sentiment has changed, the spot price has bottomed out, the basis has strengthened, and the inter - month spread has widened [11]. - **Strategy**: Focus on positive spread trading opportunities in the inter - month spread [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of various methanol contracts and spot markets have generally increased. For example, the 09 contract price has increased from 2201 to 2223, the 01 contract price has increased from 2004 to 2135, and the 05 contract price has increased from 2138 to 2219. Spot prices in regions such as Jiangsu, Fujian, and Shandong have also risen [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The market has rebounded with a significant reduction in positions [22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: Coal - based production profits have fallen to the seasonal average level, and MTO profits have declined as methanol prices rebound [11]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is being depleted at an accelerated pace, while enterprise inventory has increased slightly but remains at a low level compared to the same period last year [11]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: The domestic methanol operating rate is at a high level and has room for further improvement in the short term. The weekly production shows an upward trend [47]. - **Imports**: The latest arrival volume has decreased. The import volume from Iran and other countries shows certain fluctuations. The reduction in imports is expected to be mainly reflected in the 05 contract [11][50]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Methanol - to - Olefins**: The olefin operating rate has increased slightly, but MTO profits have declined as methanol prices rebound [80]. - **Traditional Demand**: The operating rate of traditional demand MTBE remains flat, while the others have increased, indicating an improvement in downstream demand [11]. 3.6 Options - related - **Options Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of methanol options show certain trends, and the PCR indicators of open interest and trading volume also reflect market sentiment [108]. - **Volatility**: The volatility of methanol options includes historical volatility and implied volatility, which can be used for risk assessment and trading strategies [110]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - The document provides diagrams of the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis mind - map, which helps to understand the overall structure and influencing factors of the methanol industry [113][115].

铜周报 2025/11/29 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 减产预期下铜价冲击历史高位 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润库存 06 资金端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费下滑，粗铜加工费持平，冷料供应维持相对宽松。消息面：（1）智利官方数据显示，该国10月铜产量环比微增， 同比下降约7%，至45.8万吨。（2）据悉中国铜原料采购小组（CSPT）达成协议，计划2026年减少矿铜产量10%以应对历史低位的加工费。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存环比增加0.9万吨，其中上期所库存减少1.3至9.8万吨，LME库存增加0.4至15.9万吨，COMEX库存增加1.7至37.9万吨。 上海保税区库存减少0.6万吨。现货方面，周五国内上海地区现货升水期货110元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M升水44.7美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：国内电解铜现货进口亏损扩大，洋山铜溢价下滑。海关总署数据显示，2025年10月我国精炼 ...

博弈难度加大， 短线建议观望 白糖周报 2025/11/29 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，本周原糖价格反弹，截至周五ICE原糖3月合约收盘价报15.12美分/磅，较之前一周上涨0.35美分/磅，涨幅2.37%；价 差方面，原糖3-5月差震荡，报0.47美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.02美分/磅；伦敦白糖3-5月差震荡，报3.8美元/吨，较之前一周下跌1.8美 元/吨；3月合约原白价差震荡，报100美元/吨，较之前一周上涨2美元/吨。国内方面，本周郑糖价格小幅反弹，截至周五郑糖1月合约收盘 价报5400元/吨，较之前一周上涨47元/吨，涨幅0.88%。广西现货报5450元/吨，较之前一周下跌30元/吨；基差走弱，报50元/吨，较之前一 周下跌77元/吨；1-5价差震荡，报73元/吨，较之前一周上涨22元/吨；配额外现货进口利润报573元/吨，较之前一周下跌63元/吨。 ◆ 行业消息：据沐甜科技报道，截至11 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Sentiment Warms Up, Zinc Ingot Supply Remains Loose - Zinc Weekly Report 2025/11/29" [1] - Analyst: Zhang Shijiao from the Non - ferrous Metals Group [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The current weak situation of the zinc industry does not resonate with the strong macro - sentiment expectation, which greatly reduces the attractiveness of zinc to speculative funds. The total position of SHFE zinc weighting has reached a new low since March 2025. It is expected that the zinc price will show a wide - range oscillation in the short term [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 0.04% at 22,436 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 188,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME zinc 3S fell 9 to 3,037 dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 222,400 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,370 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 50 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 10 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 15 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 65 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 151,000 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 67,600 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton [11] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 50,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 5,500 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was 165.44 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 30 dollars/ton [11] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,631.06 yuan/ton [11] - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 2,050 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was 61 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 279,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 644,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.54%, with a raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.30%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.37%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] 3.2 Macro Analysis - The content mainly presents multiple macro - economic charts, including the US fiscal revenue and expenditure, debt ratio, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [14][16][19][20] 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In September 2025, the zinc ore output was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 10.0% and a month - on - month change of - 8.8%. From January to September, the total zinc ore output was 2,739,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 3.5%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 340,900 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 3.3% and a month - on - month change of - 32.5%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,340,600 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.1% [25] - **Total Zinc Ore Supply**: In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 484,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.3% and a month - on - month change of - 10.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 5,023,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.2% [27] - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the zinc ingot output was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 21.4% and a month - on - month change of 2.8%. From January to October, the total zinc ingot output was 5,686,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. In October 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 13,100 tons, a year - on - year change of - 79.3% and a month - on - month change of - 43.7%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 280,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 30.2% [33] - **Total Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 630,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 10.3% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5,967,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [35] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.54%, with a raw material inventory of 15,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 366,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 51.30%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 57.37%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished - product inventory of 6,000 tons [39] - **Apparent Demand**: In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 610,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.6% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 5,804,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [41] 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 20,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 163,100 tons [52] - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In August 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 33,100 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 138,900 tons [55] 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 151,000 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 67,600 tons, the basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton [60] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 50,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 5,500 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract was 165.44 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 30 dollars/ton [63] - **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the disk SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 4,631.06 yuan/ton [64] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc decreased, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [67]

低估值下成本上涨， PVC迎来反弹 PVC周报 2025/11/29 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2475元/吨，周同比上涨50元/吨；山东电石价格报2830元/吨，周同比上涨25元/吨；兰炭陕西中料870元/吨，周 同比持平。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润持续下滑，乙烯制利润低位运行，目前估值中性偏低。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率80.2%，环比上升1.4%；其中电石法83.6%，环比上升2.3%；乙烯法72.4%，环比下降0.7%。上周供应端负荷小幅上升， 主因河南联创、陕西金泰负荷提升，下周预期负荷进一步回升。11月整体负荷预期仍然在高位，且有多套装置试车投产，供应压力较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面印度BIS认证政策撤销，另外反倾销税率市场预期不落地，因此年末出 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global soybean new - crop production has been marginally lowered, with total production equal to total demand. Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, indicating that the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and soybean meal inventory is large, putting pressure on crushing margins. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range with cost support and pressured crushing margins [9][10][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, US soybeans traded in a range. China's continuous purchases and low domestic stock - to - sales ratio provided support, but the high global stock - to - sales ratio limited the upside. Brazil's soybean premium increased by about 15 cents per bushel, raising the cost of imported soybeans. Brazil's main growing areas were drier than normal in November, but rainfall is expected to recover in early December, though the southeast region may see less rain. The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has shifted from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand, with the global stock - to - sales ratio dropping from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently, providing a bottom - line support for global soybeans. Without significant problems in South American weather, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to remain volatile [9] - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, domestic soybean meal spot prices and basis fluctuated, and the futures market followed the cost with narrow - range movements. Oil mills' profit from soybean purchases was slightly in the red. Domestic soybean meal sales were decent, and提货 was at a relatively high level. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were higher than the same period last year, and the de - stocking process was slow. As of November 25, institutional statistics showed 876,000 tons of soybean purchases in September, 773,000 tons in October, 652,000 tons in November, and 465,000 tons in December. Current purchase plans suggest that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline, and with high - level提货, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [9] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. The core driving logic is the same as the core view of the report. No specific strategy is recommended for arbitrage [11] 2. Spot - Futures Market - **Spot Prices**: The document presents historical data charts of soybean meal spot prices in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot prices in Huangpu, Guangdong [17][18] - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Charts show the basis of soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract [20][21] - **Price Spreads**: Charts display various price spreads, including soybean meal 01 - 05, 03 - 05, 05 - rapeseed meal 05, and 01 - rapeseed meal 01 [22][23] - **Fund Positions**: Charts show the net long positions of managed funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal [25][27] 3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Charts present data on US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate [31][32] - **Weather Conditions**: There is a risk of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. Charts show precipitation in Argentine and Brazilian soybean - growing areas, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America and South America [34][37][39] - **US Soybean Processing and Export**: Charts show US soybean processing profit, monthly processing volume, NOPA soybean oil inventory, and US soybean export progress, including signed export contracts and shipment volume to China [45][48][50] - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Charts show monthly imports and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [52][53] - **China's Oil Mill Processing**: Charts show the processing volume of soybeans and rapeseeds in major Chinese oil mills [54][55] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Charts show the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills [58][59] - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory and forecast of soybean meal in major coastal oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills [61][62] - **Protein Meal Processing Profit**: Charts show the processing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the processing profit of imported rapeseeds in coastal areas [63][64] 5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: Charts show the cumulative sales volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [66] - **Breeding Profit**: Charts show the profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the profit per feather of white - feather broilers [67][68]

缺少强驱动， 单边上涨概率不高 棉花周报 2025/11/29 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，本周美棉花期货价格小幅反弹，截至周五美棉花期货3月合约收盘价报64.73美分/磅，较之前一周上涨0.8美分/磅， 涨幅1.25%。价差方面，美棉3-5月差震荡，报-1.24美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.02美分/磅。国内方面，本周郑棉价格延续震荡，截至周五 郑棉1月合约收盘价报13725元/吨，较之前一周上涨265元/吨，涨幅1.97%。中国棉花价格指数(CCIndex)3128B报14896元/吨，较之前一周上 涨105元/吨。基差走弱，报1189元/吨，较之前一周下跌132元/吨。郑棉1-5月差震荡，报40元/吨，较之前一周上涨25元/吨。 ◆ 行业信息：据Mysteel最新公布的数据显示，截至11月28日当周，纺纱厂开机率为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Last week, stainless steel prices rebounded, boosting market confidence. The supply side saw high - level production scheduling by steel mills and a steady increase in spot arrivals. The demand side showed marginal improvement, with downstream enterprises' low - price restocking and traders' inventory - building activities increasing market activity. However, the nickel - iron price on the cost side remained at 880 yuan/nickel point, squeezing corporate profits and suppressing production enthusiasm. Despite the demand recovery, the inventory pressure caused by high supply was still significant, and the inventory clearance speed was slow due to the impact of the futures order delivery cycle. Additionally, the net export volume of stainless steel has been shrinking since the second half of the year, further exacerbating the inventory pressure. Overall, the market lacks clear upward momentum, and it is expected that stainless steel prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term [11][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot and Futures Market**: On November 28, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,365 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61% [12]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to October. In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [12]. - **Demand**: From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%. In October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60%. In October, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively, while the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 21.2% [12]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11,076 tons. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 189,800 tons, 669,200 tons, and 227,100 tons respectively, with the inventory of 300 - series increasing by 1.58% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 60,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.19%, and the unloading volume was 85,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.14% [12]. - **Cost**: Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 885 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Ironworks in Fujian were currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both single - side and arbitrage strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [14]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On November 28, the average price of cold - rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,365 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.61% [20]. - The market quotation in Foshan Delong was about - 65 yuan (- 66) higher than the main contract, and the market quotation in Wuxi Hongwang was about 135 yuan (- 46) higher than the main contract. The trading volume on the disk was 220,005 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.85% [23]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 70 (+10), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 145 (+0) [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless steel production schedule was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude steel output was 3.0645 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to October [31]. - In October, the estimated crude steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%, and the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 700,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.16% [34]. - It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in October was 440,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 103,300 tons in October, with a month - on - month increase of 7.92% [37]. - In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 21.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.71%. The cumulative net export from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [40]. 3.4 Demand Side - From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.80%. In October, the single - month sales area of commercial housing was 61.4721 billion square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.60% [45]. - In October, the year - on - year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively, while the cumulative year - on - year increase in the fuel processing industry was 21.2% [48]. - In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 16.30% and a year - on - year increase of 0.00%. The automobile sales volume in October was 3.3221 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 2.97% and a year - on - year increase of 8.82% [51]. 3.5 Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0861 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 63,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11,076 tons [56]. - The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel last week were 189,800 tons, 669,200 tons, and 227,100 tons respectively, with the inventory of 300 - series increasing by 1.58% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel last week was 60,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.19%, and the unloading volume was 85,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.14% [59]. 3.6 Cost Side - In October, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.50% and a year - on - year increase of 11.81%. Currently, the quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.9976 million wet tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% [64]. - Last week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 885 yuan/nickel, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/nickel. Ironworks in Fujian were currently losing 144 yuan/nickel [67]. - Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 52 yuan/dry ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. The high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan/50 base tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the high - carbon ferrochrome output in October was 825,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.54% [70]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel iron production line is - 844 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches - 6.23% [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Currently, the surplus pressure on nickel remains significant. However, with the stabilization of ferronickel prices and the improvement of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may shift to a volatile pattern in the short term. Future focus should be on the trends of ferronickel and ore prices. In terms of operations, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and make judgments after the ferronickel prices stabilize. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M nickel contract is expected to be between 13,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: This week, nickel ore prices remained stable. In the Philippines, the cost inversion of domestic ferronickel smelters intensified, leading to a significant weakening of ore demand. However, miners still tried to support prices in the short term, so ore prices did not decline significantly. In the future, ore prices may face downward pressure due to weakening terminal demand. In Indonesia, some areas in Sulawesi entered the rainy season, reducing the production efficiency of some mines. With weakening demand and a lower HMM benchmark price, ore prices have a downward impetus. The wet - process ore market remained relatively dull, with prices mainly stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: This week, terminal consumption was weak, and the negative feedback effect drove ferronickel prices to decline continuously. As the downstream entered the traditional off - season, stainless - steel terminal consumption was weak, and industry inventories were high. Many stainless - steel enterprises planned to cut production at the end of the year, reducing the procurement demand for ferronickel. Some traders sold at lower prices, and the market quotation and transaction center further declined. In the future, the ferronickel production profit level is at an absolute low, and there is downstream procurement demand when the ferronickel price is around 880 yuan/nickel. It is expected that ferronickel prices will gradually stabilize [11]. - **Intermediate products**: This week, the overall transaction of intermediate products was average, but the coefficient price remained high under cost support. In terms of supply, sulfur prices remained strong, and sellers were more willing to support prices. However, the demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year. The overall market transaction was rather cold [11]. - **Refined nickel**: After hitting a new phased low this week, nickel prices rebounded in the short term as the macro - atmosphere improved. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract on Friday was 117,080 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from last week, and the LME nickel price on Friday was 14,820 US dollars/ton, up 1.37% from last week. In terms of the macro - aspect, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut continued to rise this week, and market risk appetite gradually recovered. In the spot market, prices fluctuated with the futures market, and the premium and discount remained generally stable [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures nickel price trend**: Nickel prices rebounded this week. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract on Friday was 117,080 yuan/ton, up 2.66% from last week, and the LME nickel price on Friday was 14,820 US dollars/ton, up 1.37% from last week [17]. - **Nickel spot premium and discount**: The spot premium and discount were stable with a slight upward trend. As of November 28, the average spot premium of Russian nickel against the nearby contract was 400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 4,700 - 4,800 yuan/ton, with the average price up 550 yuan/ton from last week [21]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: Ferronickel prices continued to be weak. As of November 28, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 879 - 887 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 8 yuan/nickel point from the same period last week. Nickel sulfate prices gradually weakened. As of November 28, the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was reported at 27,660 - 27,800 yuan/ton, with the average price down 350 yuan/ton from the same period last week [24]. 3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: Nickel ore prices remained stable. On November 28, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 52.02 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week, the delivered price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week, and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines was reported at 57 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week [33]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic refined nickel monthly output was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with September [48]. - **Demand**: The report shows relevant data on stainless - steel production, inventory, and terminal demand in the manufacturing and real - estate sectors, but no specific demand summary is provided [50][52]. - **Import and export**: Not specifically summarized in the text, only relevant data charts are presented [54]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 2,382 tons to 308,476 tons [57]. - **Cost**: The report presents relevant data on the production cost and profit rate of different refined - nickel production processes, but no specific cost summary is provided [59]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows data on the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China, but no specific supply summary is provided [63]. - **Demand**: The report shows data on the production volume of ternary power batteries and ternary precursors, but no specific demand summary is provided [66]. - **Cost and price**: The report presents data on the production cost, price, and profit rate of battery - grade nickel sulfate from different raw materials, but no specific summary is provided [68]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - The report provides data on global nickel supply outlook and quarterly supply - demand balance forecasts from 2023 to 2025. Overall, the supply exceeded demand from 2023 - 2025, with the surplus increasing year by year [73].

短期供给扰动，预计 锡价偏强震荡 锡周报 2025/11/29 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：10月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，原料端供应紧缺略有缓解。但短期刚果（金）冲突恶化，对锡矿运输造成扰动，市场担忧情绪有所 升温。根据中国海关公布的数据，10月锡矿砂及其精矿进口量11632实物吨（折合约4938金属吨），同比下降15.74%，环比增加43.36%。其 中从缅甸的进口量为2367吨（折合约861金属吨），同比下降43.64%，环比增加1.50%；除缅甸外10月从其他国家合计进口量为9266吨（折合 约4077金属吨），同比下降5.90%，环比增加57.05%。 ◆ 供给端：缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进度缓慢，出口量维持低位，云南地区冶炼企业原材料紧张现象仍存，短期开工率持稳，但进一步上行动力不足。 江西地区则因废料显著减少，粗锡供应不足，精锡 ...