1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, tin prices fluctuated strongly. In terms of supply, the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is progressing steadily, with the expectation of increased production in the third and fourth quarters. However, short - term smelters in China still face raw material supply pressure, and processing fees are at historical lows. The combined operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces is still at a low level. In terms of demand, domestic off - season consumption remains poor, with overall weak orders from downstream factories and cautious restocking of tin raw materials. In June, the operating rate of domestic sample tin solder enterprises declined significantly compared to May, while overseas demand for tin continues to be strong driven by AI computing power. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly this week. As of July 18, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,096 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last Friday. Overall, the tin supply is at a low level, and the demand side is also weak. In the short term, both supply and demand are weak. Due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is progressing. A resumption meeting was held this week, and some mining license applications were approved. Tin ore production is expected to be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. However, short - term domestic smelters still face raw material supply pressure, processing fees are at historical lows, and the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces remain low [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: In May, 13,448.797 physical tons of tin ore and concentrates were imported, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, a total of 50,200 physical tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51%. 1,770 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were exported, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, a total of 9,584 tons were exported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. 2,076 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were imported, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, a total of 9,508 tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91% [11]. - **Demand**: Off - season consumption is poor, with weak overall orders from downstream factories and cautious restocking of tin raw materials. After the end of the photovoltaic rush to install, orders for photovoltaic tin bars in East China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. The production schedules of home appliance enterprises in July have also declined significantly. In July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year. Orders for consumer electronics and automotive electronics are growing weakly, and the market is waiting and watching. The demand for tin in the tin - plating and chemical industries is relatively stable [11]. - **Conclusion**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, despite the current low - level supply and weak demand [11][12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The report presents the charts of the basis of Shanghai Tin main - contract and the LME tin premium (0 - 3), but no specific analysis content is provided [19][20]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The report shows the charts of tin export and import profits, but no specific analysis content is provided [25][26]. - **Inventory**: The report shows the charts of China's social inventory and LME inventory, but no specific analysis content is provided [28]. 3.4 Cost Side - Tin ore supply is generally tight, and processing fees remain low [33]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Tin Ore Imports**: In May, 13,448.797 physical tons of tin ore and concentrates were imported, a year - on - year increase of 59.83% and a month - on - month increase of 36.38%. From January to May, a total of 50,200 physical tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 36.51% [11]. - **Refined Tin Production**: Affected by the shortage of raw materials and low processing fees, the domestic refined tin production in May was 14,670 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [38]. - **Imports and Exports of Unforged Non - Alloy Tin**: In May, 1,770 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were exported, a year - on - year increase of 18.01% and a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. From January to May, a total of 9,584 tons were exported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 38.48%. 2,076 tons of unforged non - alloy tin were imported, a year - on - year increase of 226.14% and a month - on - month increase of 84.07%. From January to May, a total of 9,508 tons were imported, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.91% [41]. 3.6 Demand Side - **2024 Consumption Structure**: In 2024, consumption showed a steady growth trend, with the increase mainly coming from the recovery of semiconductor consumption and the rise in photovoltaic module production. In China, solder consumption dominates, and the increase comes from photovoltaic module production and semiconductor consumption recovery. Overseas, the recovery of semiconductor consumption has also driven the growth of tin consumption, but the overall growth rate is lower than that in China, showing a trend of stronger domestic and weaker overseas consumption [51]. - **Semiconductor Sales**: The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and global semiconductor sales have maintained high growth [56]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: In the first four months of 2025, there was a phased rush to install photovoltaic in China, with significant production growth. However, the component production schedule in June decreased significantly compared to the previous month [62]. - **Home Appliance Industry**: According to the latest production schedule report of three major white - goods appliances, in July 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 29.6 million units, a 2.6% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year. Specifically, the production schedule of household air conditioners in July was 15.8 million units, a 1.9% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 7.35 million units, a 2.4% decrease compared to the previous year; and the production schedule of washing machines was 6.445 million units, a 4.2% decrease compared to the actual production performance of the same period last year [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High temperatures have led to a decline in egg production rates, alleviating supply pressure. Combined with market stocking sentiment, the spot price of eggs bottomed out earlier and rose more than expected, causing short - sellers in the near - term contracts to exit. However, with a high premium, long - sellers still lack confidence. In the short term, the near - term contracts will fluctuate mainly following the spot price, lacking a clear trend. For contracts after September, the earlier bottoming of the spot price further reduces the sentiment for culling hens. With limited cost changes and an expected continuous increase in theoretical supply, the upside space for the spot price is limited, and the high - price period is expected to be short. It is recommended to continue to look for short - selling opportunities after price rebounds [12][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices rose and then stabilized. High temperatures reduced egg production rates, leading to a shortage of large - sized eggs. Traders were bullish, and market purchasing enthusiasm was high, but cautious sentiment after the price increase led to price stabilization. The increase in egg prices was greater than that of costs, and profitability returned to a balanced state. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.3 yuan to 2.9 yuan/jin, in Guantao by 0.18 yuan to 3.18 yuan/jin, and in Huilongguan by 0.37 yuan to 3.39 yuan/jin, while in Dongguan, it decreased by 0.11 yuan to 3.15 yuan/jin. With high inventory of laying hens, the supply is sufficient, but high - quality large - sized eggs are in short supply. After consecutive price increases, terminal sentiment has become cautious. Consumption is in the traditional peak season, and it is expected that next week's demand will be weak first and then strong, with egg prices likely to rise again after a small decline [12][21]. - **Replenishment and Culling**: Due to low costs, the number of replenished chickens has been high since the second half of last year. However, since May, the monthly replenishment volume has decreased due to increased breeding losses and seasonal factors. In June, it further dropped to 81.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.4%. In June, low - price losses led to a large - scale culling of hens, and the average age of hens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, the bullish sentiment in the market has increased, culling has stagnated, and the age of hens has returned to the current high level of 506 days [12]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of June, the inventory of laying hens at sample points was 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 60 million and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, in line with expectations. Assuming normal culling, the inventory will continue to increase, peaking at 1.355 billion in November this year, a 1.1% increase from the current level, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [12]. - **Demand**: After the plum - rain season, inventory consumption has improved. With the approach of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year. After the pulsed stocking, the consumption peak in the second half of the year will gradually arrive [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short - sell on price rebounds for contracts 09, 10, and 11, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of 1 - 2 months, and a core driving logic related to inventory, spot price, cost, demand, and culling. For arbitrage, no strategy is recommended at present [15]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - **Spot Price Trend**: The spot price of eggs rose and then stabilized last week. High temperatures affected production, and large - sized eggs were in short supply, driving up prices. After the increase, cautious sentiment led to price stabilization. Although the supply of laying hens is high, high - quality large - sized eggs are scarce. Consumption is in the peak season, and it is expected that demand will first weaken and then strengthen, with egg prices likely to rise again after a small decline [21]. - **Basis and Spread**: After the spot price strengthened, it lost its upward momentum. The current basis is still low, putting pressure on near - term contracts, and the spread between months is suitable for reverse arbitrage [24]. - **Culled Hen Price**: Previously, more old hens were culled, and the price difference between white chickens and culled hens decreased significantly. Recently, due to the expected price increase in the peak season, culling has stagnated [27]. - **Chick and Pullet Price**: No specific analysis in the text. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Replenishment**: Due to low costs, the number of replenished chickens has been high since the second half of last year. However, since May, the monthly replenishment volume has decreased due to increased breeding losses and seasonal factors. In June, it further dropped to 81.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% [34]. - **Culled Hen Exit**: In June, low - price losses led to a large - scale culling of hens, and the average age of hens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, the bullish sentiment in the market has increased, culling has stagnated, and the age of hens has returned to the current high level of 506 days [37]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of June, the inventory of laying hens at sample points was 1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 60 million and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, in line with expectations. Assuming normal culling, the inventory will continue to increase, peaking at 1.355 billion in November this year, a 1.1% increase from the current level, indicating an overall oversupply in the future [39][42]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Sales Volume in Sales Areas**: After the plum - rain season, inventory consumption has improved. With the approach of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year. After the pulsed stocking, the consumption peak in the second half of the year will gradually arrive [47]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Cost has increased slightly but is still low compared to the same period last year. Profitability is at a relatively low seasonal level [52]. 3.6 Inventory Side - With the start of spot consumption, inventory pressure has eased, showing a seasonal downward trend, but it is still relatively high compared to the same period [57].

徐绍祖（联系人） 供需双弱不变， 宏观情绪回暖 聚烯烃周报 2025/07/26 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 政策端：宏观预期转强，化工企业响应"反内卷"政策，国内资本市场情绪回暖。 ◆ 估值：聚乙烯周度涨幅（成本＞期货＞现货），聚丙烯周度涨幅（期货＞成本＞现货）。 ◆ 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-1.70%，Brent原油下跌-0.01%，煤价上涨1.88%，甲醇上涨1.24%，乙烯上涨1.56%，丙烯上涨0.80%， 丙烷下跌-2.35%。成本端价格涨跌各异。 ◆ 供应端：PE产能利用率80.26%，环比上涨2.07%，同比去年上涨5.84%，较5年同期下降-6.41%。PP产能利用率76.58%，环比下降- 1.40%，同比去年上涨4.89%，较5年同期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices as large price drops have curbed supply and the market is in a bottom - building phase. It's advisable to turn long at an appropriate time [11]. - The recent sharp rise in rubber prices is due to the supply concerns caused by the Thailand - Cambodia border friction. There is a need for dynamic assessment as the conflict may either expand and push prices up or end suddenly and lead to price corrections [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices have risen significantly, and there is a risk of a pull - back. Attention should be paid to the situation where tire companies in China, Thailand, and Vietnam may over - export in the short term to avoid tariffs, which could lead to lower - than - expected future exports [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the July 4, 2025 rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy is a significant macro - level positive factor. The current environment and commodity prices are similar to the commodity price rally in 2016 [11]. - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices. Due to large price drops suppressing supply, the market is in a bottom - building phase, and it's advisable to turn long at an appropriate time. The market responded positively to this view [11]. - The Thailand - Cambodia border friction on July 24, 2025, led to supply concerns and a continuous sharp rise in rubber prices. The outcome of the conflict is uncertain, so dynamic assessment is required [11]. - The short - term price increase is large, and there is a risk of a pull - back. Attention should be paid to the potential over - export situation of tire companies [11]. - For rubber RU, a neutral approach with quick in - and - out trading is recommended in the short term, and a long - position strategy is recommended in the mid - term. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 as the price spread is at a low level [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year and rise in the second half [25]. - Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [29]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [32]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratio - Most of the price ratios, such as rubber to copper, rubber to Brent crude oil, rubber to螺纹 steel, rubber to iron ore, rubber to the Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber to the ChiNext Index, show normal values without special points of concern [40][43][47]. 3.4 Cost Side - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex rubber in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex rubber is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [51]. - Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic. Higher rubber prices lead to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, while lower prices result in less maintenance and lower costs [51]. 3.5 Demand Side - The operating rate of all - steel tire factories is 65.02% (- 0.08%), and the inventory of all - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and future recovery is expected, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The sales volume of commercial vehicles corresponds to domestic supporting demand [61]. - The export of truck tires is booming, but a slight decline is expected in the future [64]. 3.6 Supply Side - In May 2025, the total rubber production was 791.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The cumulative production was 3700 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.11% [102]. - For major rubber - producing countries in May 2025, Thailand's production was 272.2 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.99% and a month - on - month increase of 157.52%; Indonesia's production was 200.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77% and a month - on - month increase of 3.19%; Malaysia's production was 20 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.88% and a month - on - month increase of 11.11%; Vietnam's production was 85.5 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.00% and a month - on - month increase of 42.50% [102]. - Most of the supply - related data in the supply - demand balance sheet show normal values without special points of concern [72][76][79].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - CME platinum and palladium inventories are continuously increasing, and the tightness of overseas platinum spot has eased, but tariff transactions will still support platinum prices. The prices of platinum group metals showed weakness this week. It is expected that the prices of platinum group metals will show a weak shock pattern at high levels in the short term, and platinum prices will perform better than palladium prices [9]. - The total platinum production of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a decrease of 1.9% compared to 2024, indicating a certain contraction expectation in the mine - end supply of platinum this year. The total palladium production of the top 15 mines in 2025 will slightly contract, with a 0.86% decrease to 165.78 tons [68][71]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price and Volume Data**: The closing price of the NYMEX platinum active contract fell 1.55% to $1,433.6 per ounce, and the trading volume (five - day average) decreased 12.18%. The closing price of the NYMEX palladium active contract fell 2.06% to $1,260 per ounce, and the trading volume (five - day average) decreased 27.76% [9]. - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: CME platinum inventory increased significantly from 11.4 tons on July 18 to 16.04 tons on July 25, and CME palladium inventory increased from 1.49 tons to 2.01 tons. Platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.22% to 75.4 tons, and palladium ETF holdings increased 0.84% to 13.23 tons [9][50][53]. - **Technical Analysis**: NYMEX platinum's weekly - level price is relatively strong, with support at $1,376 per ounce. NYMEX palladium is expected to consolidate in the range of $1,206 - $1,373 per ounce [12][16]. 3.2 Market Review - **Price Changes**: This week, the price of the NYMEX platinum main contract fell 1.55% to $1,433.6 per ounce, and the total position decreased slightly by 1,017 lots to 90,701 lots. The price of the NYMEX palladium main contract fell 2.06% to $1,260 per ounce, and the total position was 20,819 lots. The price of Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum fell 2.66% to 332.9 yuan per gram [21][24][27]. - **CFTC Net Positions**: As of the latest report on July 22, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased by 2,925 lots to 17,158 lots, and the net short position of NYMEX palladium managed funds was 2,617 lots [36][39]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: As of July 25, CME platinum inventory increased by 7.4 tons to 16.04 tons, and platinum ETF total holdings were 75.4 tons [50][57]. - **Palladium**: CME palladium inventory is currently 2,015 kg, a significant increase of 519.8 kg from last week, and palladium ETF total holdings were 13.23 tons [53][62]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The total platinum production of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024. The total palladium production of the top 15 mines in 2025 will be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease [68][71]. - **Demand**: China's platinum imports in June were 11.79 tons, a decline from May; palladium imports were 2.34 tons, an increase from May [74][77]. 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: Relevant data charts are provided to show the price differences between different contract months of NYMEX platinum [93][94]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: Relevant data charts are provided to show the price differences between different contract months of NYMEX palladium [101][106]. - **London Spot and NYMEX Spreads**: Charts show the price differences between London spot platinum/palladium prices and NYMEX platinum/palladium prices [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a short - allocation view on the asphalt valuation ratio [15]. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the crude oil cost side has returned to normal. As the small off - season in August approaches, the cost support for asphalt is expected to weaken, and the valuation ratio is expected to remain volatile. However, with the approaching hurricane season in the US in September, the asphalt profit is expected to be gradually compressed by unexpected device impacts on the crude oil cost side, thus lowering the valuation. Meanwhile, the asphalt's own operating rate is in a seasonal upward period, and the supply will be further relaxed. The domestic "anti - involution" macro - orientation is not expected to cause a large - scale supply disruption for asphalt, so the short - allocation view on the asphalt valuation ratio is maintained [15]. - In the medium - term, the import of asphalt is expected to remain low. The main refineries are expected to resume a certain level of operation, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation. The demand side has slightly improved compared with previous years, but the overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure seasonal peak. The upward space for oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the widening volatility center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. Overall, the asphalt valuation is likely to decline in the second half of the year [16]. - In the short - term, the supply side shows a neutral situation, the demand side is bearish, the inventory side is slightly bearish, and the cost side is slightly bearish. The "anti - involution" macro - orientation will not cause a large - scale supply disruption for asphalt, and the increase in cracking profit will stimulate refinery production and lower the asphalt valuation [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The current crude oil cost side has returned to normal, and the cost support for asphalt is expected to weaken as the August small off - season approaches. The asphalt operating rate is in a seasonal upward period, and the supply will be more abundant [15]. - **Medium - term Impact Factors and Evaluation**: Import is expected to remain low. The main refineries are expected to resume operation, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation. The demand side has slightly improved, but overall demand is expected to be flat. Oil prices are expected to have limited upward space in the second half of the year, and the asphalt valuation is likely to decline [16]. - **Short - term Factor Evaluation**: Supply is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is slightly bearish, and cost is slightly bearish. The "anti - involution" macro - orientation will not cause a large - scale supply disruption, and refinery production will be stimulated to lower the asphalt valuation [17]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report presents the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, East China, and North China regions [20][23][24][26]. - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [29][30]. - **Term Structure**: The report presents the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts [32][33][34]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt [42][43]. - **Import**: The report presents the import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, as well as the import profit from different regions [45][47][49]. - **Valuation Ratio**: The report shows the valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent [57][58]. - **Refinery Profit**: The report presents the refining profits of main refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the operating rate and production profit of petroleum coke [60][61][63][64]. 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: The report shows the domestic total inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [68][69][71][73]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main contract [76][77]. - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: The report shows the relationships between inventory, profit, and price [79][80]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: The report presents the asphalt shipment volumes of sample enterprises in East China, North China, and other regions [85][86][88]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The report shows the operating rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [92][93][97]. - **Highway Investment**: The report presents the cumulative highway construction investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly values of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [99][100]. - **Road - Related Machinery**: The report presents the monthly sales of road rollers and excavators, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the cumulative highway construction investment [103][104]. - **Related Consumption**: The report presents the fixed - asset investment completion rate and the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds [106]. 3.6 Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: The report presents the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [109][111][112]. 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: The report shows the exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain [119][120]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: The report shows the classification of asphalt from the production process and usage perspectives, and its main applications [121][123].

商品情绪降温，价格高位回落 甲醇周报 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 2025/07/26 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结 | 行情回顾 | 目前国内受反内卷政策影响黑色板块出现持续大幅上涨，甲醇更多受到情绪面影响，盘面跟随大幅上涨，但随着短期情绪 逐渐走向过热，7月25号夜盘国内商品出现大幅下跌，甲醇下跌超过3%，情绪开始降温，盘面面临进一步回调风险，目前 | | --- | --- | | | 甲醇自身矛盾不支持价格出现单边大幅上涨，波动率高位下需要注意价格风险。 | | 基本面 | 供应  国内开工83.98，环比+1.56%，国内开工逐步见底回升。 需求 | | |  到港17.38万吨，环比-25.66万吨，海外开工进一步回升。 | | |  港口烯烃开工79.28%，环比-0.95%，整体变化不大。 | | |  传统需求甲醛开工回落，二甲醚维稳，醋酸、氯化物、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the bullish sentiment of commodities driven by the unfalsifiable "anti - involution" and Supply - side Reform 2.0 expectations is the dominant factor for the price of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon. The speculative behavior of short - term funds has made the price deviate from the actual fundamentals. Although it's hard to determine if the price has reached the short - term peak, the significant reduction in positions and drop of coking coal on the night of July 25 may symbolize the end of the short - term exuberant sentiment. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline in the market when the sentiment fades, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [15][96] - In the long - term, both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, or the entire black sector, will face a situation of weakening marginal demand, especially the risk of a rapid decline in the demand for coil products and a significant drop in high - level hot metal production [15][96] 3. Summary According to the Directory Manganese Silicon 3.1.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 6010 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6414 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan/ton; the basis was - 214 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton. The calculated immediate profit remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 264 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 124 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 474 yuan/ton. The production cost increased, with Inner Mongolia at 5964 yuan/ton, Ningxia at 5924 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at 6194 yuan/ton. The weekly output was 18.65 tons, up 0.36 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.72% compared with the same period last year. The weekly output of rebar was 211.96 tons, up 2.9 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.56% compared with the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. The estimated visible inventory was 59.48 tons, down 4.04 tons [14] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was at a low level, production profit continued to be in the red, production increased, rebar production was weak, hot metal production remained high, visible inventory continued to decline but remained high, and the tender volume increased slightly while the tender price continued to fall [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline in the market when the sentiment fades, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin (cash flow) safety [15] 3.1.2. Spot and Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 6010 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6414 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan/ton; the basis was - 214 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 3.47%, at a low level in historical statistics [20] 3.1.3. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of July 25, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 264 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton from last week; Ningxia at - 124 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton; and Guangxi at - 474 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [25] - **Cost**: The calculated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5964 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan/ton from last week; in Ningxia, it was 5924 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan/ton; and in Guangxi, it was 6194 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton. The main producing area's electricity price remained stable. In June, the manganese ore import volume was 268 tons, down 25.95 tons from the previous month and up 54.01 tons year - on - year. As of July 18, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 428.5 tons, down 4.2 tons [27][30][33] 3.1.4. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 18.65 tons, up 0.36 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.72% compared with the same period last year. In June 2025, the output was 75.23 tons, up 0.93 tons, and the cumulative output from January to June decreased by 15.67 tons or 3.10% year - on - year [44] - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar was 211.96 tons, up 2.9 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.56% compared with the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. In June, the national crude steel output was 8318 tons, down 342 tons from the previous month and 842 tons year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output was 509 million tons, down 772 tons or 1.49% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 63.54%, up 3.47 percentage points [58][61][62] 3.1.5. Inventory - The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 59.48 tons, down 4.04 tons, continuing to decline but remaining at a high level. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 20.5 tons, down 1.13 tons. In July, the average available days of steel mill inventory was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days, at a historical low [69][72][75] 3.1.6. Graphical Trends - From July 21 - 25, the manganese silicon futures price broke through the upper pressure level on July 25 and rose sharply, hitting the daily limit, with a weekly increase of 624 yuan/ton or 10.74%. On the daily line level, it continued the short - term rebound trend and accelerated upwards. Pay attention to the pressure around the gap of 6586 - 6644 yuan/ton [81] Ferrosilicon 3.2.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year; the cumulative export of ferrosilicon was 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year. The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 17.36 tons, down 0.2 tons, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6166 yuan/ton, up 658 yuan/ton; the basis was - 266 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 4.51%, at a low level in historical statistics. The calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 103 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it was + 201 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton; and in Qinghai, it was 344 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton. The production cost in the main producing areas remained stable [95] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was at a low level, production profit rebounded significantly, production continued to increase, hot metal production remained high, export and magnesium metal demand were average, inventory remained at a relatively high level in the same period, and the steel tender volume increased slightly while the tender price continued to fall [96] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline in the market when the sentiment fades, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin (cash flow) safety [96] 3.2.2. Spot and Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6166 yuan/ton, up 658 yuan/ton; the basis was - 266 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 4.51%, at a low level in historical statistics [101] 3.2.3. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of July 25, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 103 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it was + 201 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton; and in Qinghai, it was 344 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton [106] - **Cost**: The silicon stone price in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, remaining stable, and the semi - coke small material price was 590 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The electricity price in the main producing areas remained stable, and the production cost in the main producing areas remained basically stable [109][112] 3.2.4. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 10.23 tons, up 0.23 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 0.26% compared with the same period last year. In June 2025, the output was 41.4 tons, remaining stable compared with the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to June increased by 5.48 tons or 2.08% year - on - year [117] - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. In June, the national crude steel output was 8318 tons, down 342 tons from the previous month and 842 tons year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output was 509 million tons, down 772 tons or 1.49% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year; the cumulative export of ferrosilicon was 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year. The export profit of ferrosilicon was 63 yuan/ton, significantly weakening, at a relatively low level in the same period. From January to June, the cumulative overseas crude steel output was 419 million tons, down 450 tons or 1.06% year - on - year [126][129][132] 3.2.5. Inventory - The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 17.36 tons, down 0.2 tons, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. In July, the average available days of steel mill inventory was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days, and the raw material inventory of steel mills decreased significantly, at a historical low [140][143] 3.2.6. Graphical Trends - From July 21 - 25, the ferrosilicon futures price continued to rebound and rose sharply on July 25, hitting the daily limit, with a weekly increase of 690 yuan/ton or 12.46%. On the daily line level, it continued the short - term rebound trend, broke through the upper edge of the flag - shaped channel, and entered the acceleration phase. Pay attention to the pressure around 6300 yuan/ton and 6550 - 6600 yuan/ton [149]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish rating on high - frequency exports of the oil and fat industry, indicating "short - term bearish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, factors such as the unexpected U.S. biodiesel policy draft, limited potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia, low inventories of vegetable oils in India for rigid demand, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of oils and fats. From July to September, if demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in producing areas may remain stable, supporting a strong and volatile price quotation. There may be an upward price expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level expectation of increased oil and fat production, relatively high palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro - factors, and demand adjustments in major importing countries. The market is expected to be volatile [11][12][13] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Palm oil rose slightly at the beginning of the week following the optimistic sentiment in commodities, but it was difficult to continue the upward trend due to the record - high net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils and fats and the bearish high - frequency export and production data. It fell at the end of the week following the overall decline in commodities. Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 25 days were expected to decline by 9.2% - 15.22% month - on - month, and the production in the first 20 days of July increased by 6.19% month - on - month. The lower - than - expected exports may imply increased production in Indonesia or weak demand in consuming areas. The narrative of increased palm oil production and weak demand still suppresses the market. Although there are medium - term positive factors such as the expected B50 policy in Indonesia and limited potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia, short - term data deviations bring correction pressure to the market. The price of foreign - traded rapeseed entered a volatile phase after falling from a high level, and the contact between China and Australia on rapeseed purchases suppressed the high valuation of rapeseed oil [11] - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA July monthly report estimated that the U.S. will increase about 1.5 million tons of industrial demand for soybean oil in the 2025/2026 season, which will be supplemented by a decline in soybean oil exports and increased压榨 output. The estimated import of rapeseed oil is only expected to increase by 200,000 tons year - on - year. The shipment volume of Canadian rapeseed is still high, and exports are at a seasonally high level, with signs of inventory accumulation in commercial inventories. The contact between China and Australia on rapeseed trade also suppresses the rapeseed price. The foreign - traded rapeseed price has been mainly volatile this week. The AAFC significantly increased the production of old - crop rapeseed based on large export data, but the new - crop rapeseed is facing a production decline, which supports the rapeseed price. India purchased a large amount of vegetable oils in June, possibly starting a replenishment process, which will support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11] - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: The trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was weak this week, and the spot basis was at a low level. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 400,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient supply. Among them, the rapeseed oil inventory is 300,000 tons higher than last year, the palm oil inventory is about 100,000 tons higher than last year, and the soybean oil inventory is the same as last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will increase with the arrival of soybeans, and the export willingness of palm oil will also increase after production rises. The rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level, but the high price difference and weak consumption lead to slow inventory reduction. It is difficult to see a downward trend in the total domestic inventory of oils and fats for now [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to be volatile. The core driving logic is the same as the core viewpoints mentioned above. There is no specific recommendation for arbitrage trading [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including the FOB - futures price difference of Malaysian palm oil, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil futures, and the basis of 09 contracts of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, which are used to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23][25] 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Export of Malaysian Palm Oil**: The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the monthly production and export of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia. It also includes charts of the weekly arrival of soybeans, soybean port inventory, monthly import of rapeseed, and monthly import of rapeseed oil, which are used to analyze the supply situation of different oils and fats [28][29][30][31] - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: The report presents charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which are used to analyze the impact of weather on palm oil production [33][35] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Situation**: The report shows charts of the total inventory of domestic three major oils and fats, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, which are used to analyze the profit and inventory situation of different oils and fats [41][44][46][47][49] 3.5 Cost Side - **Cost of Malaysian Palm Oil**: The report shows charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil, which are used to analyze the cost of Malaysian palm oil [51][52] - **Cost of Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed**: The report shows charts of the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed in China, which are used to analyze the cost of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [55] 3.6 Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume**: The report shows charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year, which are used to analyze the trading demand for different oils and fats [58] - **Biodiesel Profit**: The report shows charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which are used to analyze the profit situation of biodiesel [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet. However, the import cost of domestic soybeans is in a state of small - scale upward fluctuation due to a single supply source, and it may be difficult to decline before the Sino - US soybean trade improves substantially. - The domestic double - meal market: the domestic soybean meal spot price has followed the futures price down this week. The domestic market has weak trading volume, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have slightly decreased to 8.19 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. The soybean purchase agreement, soybean meal shipping, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' promotion of reducing soybean meal consumption have suppressed the valuation of soybean meal. - Overall, the soybean meal market is intertwined with long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, US soybeans fluctuated weakly. The pressure of a good harvest due to favorable weather and the positive impact of trade agreements on exports were intertwined. The USDA July monthly report maintained the US soybean production level at about 118 million tons in the 25/26 season, with the crushing volume increased by 1.36 million tons and the export volume decreased by 1.91 million tons. The inventory increased by about 410,000 tons month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio in the 25/26 season increased from 6.68% to 7.06%. South American old - crop soybeans are also in a state of good harvest, and the global soybean supply still exceeds demand. The USDA monthly report reduced the export of Brazilian soybeans in the 24/25 season, and the global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio in the 25/26 season increased from 29.54% to 29.65%. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot price followed the futures price down. Information such as possible soybean purchase agreements, soybean meal shipping, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' promotion of reducing soybean meal consumption has suppressed the valuation of soybean meal. As of July 22, the shipping volume in March was 13.79 million tons, 10.29 million tons in April, 11.81 million tons in May, 12.72 million tons in June, 10.5 million tons in July, 8.84 million tons in August, 6.2 million tons in September, and 1.06 million tons in October. The shipping progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September, and the domestic soybean - related prices may bottom out and fluctuate before that. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: Figures 1 and 2 show the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong respectively over the years. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Figures 3 and 4 show the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract respectively. - **Spreads**: Figures 5 - 8 show various spreads such as the soybean meal 09 - 01 spread, the soybean meal 09 - rapeseed meal 09 spread, etc. - **Fund Positions**: Figures 9 and 10 show the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds respectively [17][19][22][25]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Figures 11 - 14 show the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate respectively over the years. - **Weather Conditions**: Figures 15 and 16 show the weighted precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas and the Canadian rapeseed - producing areas respectively, with forecasts up to August 9, 2025. - **El Niño Situation**: Figures 17 - 20 show the CFS El Niño outlook, La Niña occurrence probability, and the impact of La Niña on precipitation in North America and climate in South America. - **US Soybean Processing and Related Data**: Figures 21 - 24 show the US soybean processing profit, the spot price of No. 1 yellow soybeans in central Illinois, the US monthly soybean processing volume, and the NOPA soybean oil inventory. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Figures 25 - 28 show the US soybean's total export contracts signed with China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of the current year, the total export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipment volume to China. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Figures 29 and 30 show the monthly import volume and forecast of soybeans and rapeseeds in China. - **China's Oil Mill Processing Situation**: Figures 31 and 32 show the soybean processing volume and rapeseed processing volume of major oil mills in China [31][34][36][46][50][53][55]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Figures 33 and 34 show the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Figures 35 and 36 show the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills. - **Protein Meal Processing Profit**: Figures 37 and 38 show the processing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the processing profit of imported rapeseeds in coastal areas [59][62][64]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand Data**: Figures 39 and 40 show the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal. - **Breeding Profit**: Figures 41 and 42 show the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers [67][69].