Report Title - Apple Weekly Report: New Apples are Gradually Being Stored in Warehouses, and Apple Prices Remain Stable [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This year, apple production has declined, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and preservation is more difficult. Market expectations suggest that the cold - storage inventory data is likely to be lower. As of November 6, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.68%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.62 percentage points; the inventory was 6.8274 million tons, 17.04% lower than the same period last year. Considering that it's not the peak of storage yet, it's highly likely that this year's inventory will be lower than last year, and the apple quality is relatively poor, so the effective inventory is likely to be low. However, the current futures price is at a high level, with a significant increase in positions and greater market divergence. Short - term risks are relatively high, so it is recommended to wait and see [17]. Summary by Directory 1. Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1.1 Apple Spot Analysis - This week, the ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is gradually ending, concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. The storage work is in the later stage. In Shandong, some areas haven't completed the harvest, with many merchants, and striped apples are on the market. In terms of storage progress, Gansu has basically finished, Shaanxi is nearing completion, and in Shandong, some areas are still actively storing. The trading atmosphere in the sales areas is weak, with fewer trucks arriving during the week, and the demand side is under pressure. The prices in major producing areas are generally stable with a slight upward trend in Shandong and a slight decline in Shaanxi due to quality [7]. 1.2 Supply Analysis - As of November 6, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.68%, with an inventory of 6.8274 million tons, 17.04% lower than the same period last year. Shandong's cold - storage capacity utilization rate is 48.95% and is still in the storage process. Shaanxi's is 52.56%, with most areas having completed storage, and some areas still receiving external supplies. The overall storage in Shaanxi is lower than last year due to smaller fruit sizes and higher defect rates. There is a small amount of出库 from cold - storage recently, and there are reports of water - rotting apples in some cold - storages [12]. 1.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of trucks arriving in the morning has significantly decreased compared to last week, with an average of about 24 trucks per day. The new - season late Fuji apples are moving slowly, and there is pressure on daily digestion and some backlog in transit warehouses. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on November 7 was 6.94 yuan per kilogram, slightly lower than last Friday, at a medium - high level in recent years. The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2025 - 2026 production season is temporarily not counted [15]. 1.4 Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: Apple fundamentals are strong, but the current price is high, and there is a large divergence between bulls and bears in the market. It is recommended to wait and see. - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [17]. 2. Weekly Data Tracking 2.1 Apple Supply and Demand Situation - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content, only some historical data charts of apple production, consumption, and export are presented [21]. 2.2 Inventory and Shipment - Similar to the supply analysis, it shows the cold - storage inventory trends of apples in the whole country, Shandong, and Shaanxi over the years, and also the national cold - storage apple shipment trends [24]. 2.3 Spread and Basis - The report presents the historical data charts of 5 - month basis, 10 - month basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, and 1 - month basis, which can be used for analyzing the price differences between different contract months and the relationship between spot and futures prices [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market has fully reflected the positive factors, and the subsequent upward momentum may be limited. However, there are also many uncertainties, and the downward space is expected to be limited if the overall market demand does not decline significantly [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows a volatile trend. The near - term contracts are relatively strong due to the loss of soybean crushing profit, the lack of competitiveness of US soybeans compared with Brazilian soybeans, and the tight supply in the long - term domestic market. The current domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with high inventory and general trading volume [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong trend, mainly affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed supply. However, the high inventory of granular rapeseed meal limits the price increase space [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the long - term contracts for unilateral trading, expand the MRM spread for arbitrage, and adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - The US soybean market shows a high - level volatile trend. The improvement of export prospects has been fully reflected in the price. Further upward movement requires more positive changes in supply. The South American market is under pressure. Brazilian soybean export volume is expected to increase, and the price increase space is limited. Argentina also faces price pressure due to large production [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market has a near - term strong and long - term weak pattern. The near - term strength is due to factors such as crushing profit loss and tight long - term supply. The domestic spot market has a loose supply - demand relationship and high inventory [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market is affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed import, but the high inventory of granular rapeseed meal restricts the price increase [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on the long - term contracts. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread. - Options: Sell wide straddles [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 US Soybeans: Export Prospects Improve, and the Market Remains at a High Level - The US soybean futures market continues to show a high - level volatile trend. The export prospects have improved, but the price increase space is limited without a significant decline in supply. The US soybean harvest progress is expected to be fast, and the single - yield estimate has been slightly adjusted. The soybean crushing profit has declined, and the export is still slow with high uncertainty [8]. 3.2.2 South America: Sowing Slows Down, and Prices Decline - The South American soybean price shows a downward trend. The Brazilian soybean price has declined, and the new - crop price is relatively firm due to the slow sowing progress. The Brazilian soybean sowing is affected by weather, the demand is general, the crushing profit is low, and the export volume is expected to remain high. The Argentine new - crop sowing has started, and the supply is expected to decrease with limited market impact [11]. 3.2.3 Trade Relations: Changes Increase, and Soybean Meal Fluctuates at a High Level - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows a high - level volatile trend. The oil mill operating rate is expected to decline, the inventory pressure is large, and the crushing profit is average. The demand is good due to high livestock and poultry inventory, but the further inventory accumulation space is limited. The reduction of tariffs on US soybeans does not make them competitive, and the long - term soybean import is expected to decrease [14]. 3.2.4 Market Supply: Loose, and Demand Remains at a Low Level - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong trend. The market is affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed import. The supply of rapeseed for crushing is low, the inventory is low, and the demand is general. The high inventory of granular rapeseed meal makes the market supply - demand relationship relatively loose, and the price increase space is limited [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes 3.3.1 International Market - The data includes US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit; Brazilian and Argentine soybean monthly export and crushing volume [20][23]. 3.3.2 Foreign Premium - It shows the FOB prices of US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina soybeans and the CNF price of rapeseed [25]. 3.3.3 Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - It involves the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso, and the shipping freight rates of Panamax vessels on different routes [32][38]. 3.3.4 Supply - The data includes soybean and rapeseed import volume and weekly crushing volume [40]. 3.3.5 Demand - It shows the weekly提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [42]. 3.3.6 Inventory - The data includes the inventory of soybeans, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal [45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Internationally, the sugar production in major global producing areas is increasing. Brazil's sugar production is at a historically high level, and India may export more sugar than expected, leading to a weak fundamental situation for raw sugar with a downward long - term trend [3]. - In the domestic market, short - term sugar production is expected to increase, and international sugar prices have dropped significantly. Although the supply and sales pressure is increasing, the tightening of syrup and premix imports and high previous pricing costs support the domestic sugar price. So, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, it will be affected by the international market and is expected to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited due to policy support [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Core Logic - International sugar prices are weak due to high production in Brazil and potential high - volume exports from India. Domestic sugar prices are affected by both international factors and domestic policies, with short - term fluctuations and long - term weakness [3][4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices have ended the rebound and resumed the downward trend. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, so it is recommended to operate within the range, selling high and covering low [5]. - Arbitrage: Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar [5]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar supply - demand gap is significantly narrowing. ISO predicts a 23.1 - million - ton supply gap, while Czarnikow predicts a 740 - million - ton supply surplus [11]. Brazil - Sugar production is expected to remain high at 4502 million tons in the 2025/26 season, slightly higher than the previous estimate [12]. - In the first half of October 2025, the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region decreased by 3 percentage points to 48.24%, and ethanol production showed a mixed trend [14]. - As of October 16, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region increased by 0.89% year - on - year, and the ethanol price center of gravity is expected to decline due to the gasoline price cut [23]. - As of the first half of October, the sugar inventory in the central - southern region increased by 18.2% year - on - year, and the export volume in October increased by 12.8% year - on - year [28]. Thailand - The new sugar season is expected to see a slight increase in production, and the export volume is expected to increase by 100 million tons [32]. India - The ISMA estimates the 2025/26 sugar season's total production at 3435 million tons, and the net production (excluding ethanol use) at 3095 million tons. India is capable of exporting nearly 200 million tons of sugar [41]. - As of July 2025, the 24/25 cumulative net export volume was 75.08 million tons. The November 2025 domestic sales quota decreased by 20 million tons year - on - year [41]. Domestic Market - Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have mostly started production. Rainfall may increase beet yield but reduce sugar content. Yunnan's sugar mills may start production in mid - November [42]. - Import profits are relatively high. For example, the in - quota profit from Brazil is 1750 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota profit is over 600 yuan/ton [47]. - In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 14.63 million tons. The import of syrup and premix decreased significantly. The predicted out - of - quota raw sugar arrival in October is 11.9 million tons [53]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Data on Brazil's central - southern region includes cumulative cane crushing volume, sugar production, bi - weekly sugar - making ratio, etc. [23][55]. - Data on India includes double - week cumulative sugar production, domestic sales quota, and export volume [41]. - Domestic data includes sugar production progress, import volume of sugar, syrup, and premix [42][53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current pig market still has certain supply pressure, and subsequent pig prices are expected to fluctuate with relatively limited changes [3]. - The futures market is mainly affected by the near - end spot price, and the overall situation will be in a fluctuating state with a relatively limited increase in supply pressure [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Pig prices across the country continued to decline this week, with obvious supply pressure. Scale enterprises' slaughter volume remained stable, while ordinary farmers initially increased their slaughter volume and then resisted low prices. The number of second - fattening pigs increased, and the slaughter weight also rose, so the overall supply pressure still exists [3]. - In terms of demand, the weekly pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, and the frozen product inventory increased. Although the fresh - sale rate and price of pigs increased, the overall demand change was limited [3]. - In the futures market, pig prices continued to fall this week, and the futures market fluctuated. The main influencing factor was the near - end spot price. The subsequent supply pressure may increase slightly, and the market will mainly fluctuate [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [4]. 2. Data Chart & Logical Analysis Pig Prices - Pig prices across the country declined this week. In Northeast China, it was 12 - 12.1 yuan/kg, down 0.4 - 0.5 yuan/kg; in North China, 12.13 - 12.22 yuan/kg, down 0.35 yuan/kg; in Henan and Shandong, 11.93 - 12.02 yuan/kg, down 0.5 - 0.55 yuan/kg; in East China, 11.95 - 12.45 yuan/kg, down 0.45 - 0.6 yuan/kg; in Southwest China, 11.5 yuan/kg, down 0.75 yuan/kg; in Central China, 11.46 - 12.3 yuan/kg, down 0.55 - 0.8 yuan/kg; in South China, 11.07 - 12.36 yuan/kg, down 0.7 - 1 yuan/kg [8]. - The early - week market slaughter pressure increased, and the number of second - fattening pigs decreased. As prices fell, farmers' acceptance of low prices declined, and the supply pressure improved [8]. Slaughter and Consumption Changes - In terms of slaughter, the early - week pig slaughter volume increased significantly, especially among ordinary farmers. The enthusiasm for second - fattening decreased initially and then increased as prices fell. Scale enterprises maintained a normal slaughter rhythm, and their monthly slaughter plan was adjusted down [9]. - The pig slaughter weight increased this week, and the price difference between large and small pigs decreased, partly due to the decrease in second - fattening. The overall supply pressure is expected to continue [9]. - In terms of consumption, the demand change was limited. The pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, the frozen product inventory increased, and the apparent consumption declined. However, the pig price was firm, and the fresh - sale rate increased, so the actual demand change was limited [9]. Breeding Profits - Pig breeding profits increased slightly. As of the week of November 7, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 89.21 yuan/head, up 0.21 yuan/head from last week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 175.54 yuan/head, up 4.18 yuan/head from last week [15]. - Although pig prices continued to fall, the overall change was limited, and the cost decreased slightly, leading to a slight increase in breeding profits [15]. Sow & Piglet Prices - Piglet prices rebounded slightly. The price of 7 - kg piglets was 198 yuan/head, up 23 yuan/head from last week, and the price of 15 - kg piglets was 284 yuan/kg, up 19 yuan/head from last week. Farmers' enthusiasm for replenishing piglets was average [19]. - Sow prices also rebounded slightly. The sow price was 1546 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs increased, and the market's enthusiasm for culling decreased [19]. Reproductive Sow Inventory - According to Yongyi's data, the reproductive sow inventory in October decreased slightly month - on - month, with the comprehensive sample down 0.8% and scale enterprises down 0.77% [22]. - According to Ganglian's data, the reproductive sow inventory in October increased 0.11% month - on - month, with scale enterprises up 0.12% and small and medium - sized farmers down 0.14% [22]. - Considering the breeding profit loss, the number of culled sows may increase [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The peanut market shows a weak and volatile trend. The trading volume of peanuts has increased. The price of general peanuts in Henan is stable, while the price in Shandong has decreased and that in the Northeast has increased. The price of imported peanuts is stable, but the import volume has significantly decreased. The operating rate of oil mills has risen, the spot price of peanut meal is stable, and the price of peanut oil is stable. The profit of oil mills from peanut pressing has increased. However, downstream consumption remains weak, the peanut inventory of oil mills has increased, and the inventory of peanut oil has continued to rise. The market expects the peanut production to be the same as or slightly higher than last year, but due to the impact of previous rainfall, the quality of peanuts has a relatively high rate of mildew, and oil mills have not yet carried out large - scale purchases. The price of Henan peanuts in the spot market is low, and the 01 peanut contract has oscillated and declined this week, with the 1 - 5 spread being weak [6]. - Options strategy: Consider selling the pk601 - P - 7600 option strategy [5]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a weak - bottom - oscillation mindset. Do not participate in the 01 peanut contract, and consider short - term long positions in the 05 peanut contract on dips. For the spread, conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread when it is high [6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Options strategy: Try selling the pk601 - P - 7600 option strategy [5]. - Trading logic: The trading volume of peanuts has increased. The price of general peanuts in Henan is stable at around 3.5 yuan per catty, the price in Shandong has decreased, and that in the Northeast has increased, with peanuts in the Northeast generally around 4.1 yuan per catty. The price of imported peanuts is stable, with imported Sudan refined rice at 8600 yuan per ton and Senegalese oil - grade rice at 7800 yuan per ton, and the import volume has significantly decreased. The operating rate of oil mills has risen, the spot price of peanut meal is stable, the price of peanut oil is stable, and the profit of oil mills from peanut pressing has increased. Downstream consumption remains weak, the peanut inventory of oil mills has increased, and the inventory of peanut oil has continued to rise. The market expects the peanut production to be the same as or slightly higher than last year, but due to the impact of previous rainfall, the quality of peanuts has a relatively high rate of mildew, and oil mills have not yet carried out large - scale purchases. The price of Henan peanuts in the spot market is low, and the 01 peanut contract has oscillated and declined this week, with the 1 - 5 spread being weak [6]. - Strategy: The peanut market is in a weak and volatile state. Adopt a weak - bottom - oscillation mindset. Do not participate in the 01 peanut contract, and consider short - term long positions in the 05 peanut contract on dips [6]. - Spread strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread when it is high [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Peanut Price - The purchase price of oil mills has been lowered, the price of imported peanuts is stable, and the price of general peanuts is weak. In the domestic market, the price of peanuts in Henan is stable, and that in the Northeast has increased. The price of large peanuts in Junan, Shandong is 3.7 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.25 yuan per catty from last week; the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan is 3.5 yuan per catty, remaining stable from last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.1 yuan per catty, remaining stable from last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.3 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week. The trading volume of general peanuts is average, and the overall price of peanuts in Henan is weak. The purchase price of oil - grade peanuts by oil mills is stable, and most oil mills have stopped purchasing. The basic purchase price of oil mills is between 7600 - 7800 yuan per ton, a decrease of 100 yuan per ton from last week. The price of imported peanuts is stable, with Sudan new rice at 8600 yuan per ton, Senegalese oil - grade rice at 7800 yuan per ton, and Indian 50/60 peanuts at 8000 yuan per ton [9][11]. Domestic Demand - The operating rate of oil mills has increased, and the peanut inventory has increased. As of November 6th, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 16.21%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93%. The arrival volume of oil mills this week is 27,900 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from last week. The peanut inventory of oil mills is 45,900 tons, an increase of 4,100 tons from last week. The inventory of peanut oil is 40,300 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from last week [13][15]. Pressing Profit - The purchase price of peanuts by oil mills has been lowered, the price of peanut oil is stable, and the pressing profit has increased. The pressing profit of peanut oil mills is 266 yuan per ton, an increase of 19 yuan per ton from last week (according to Steel Union data). The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,500 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week, and the price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16,500 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week. Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the price of peanut meal is stable, at 3210 yuan per ton this week, remaining the same as last week [17][19]. Basis and Spread - The 1 - 4 spread of peanuts is weak and stable at around - 80 yuan this week due to the downward oscillation of the 01 peanut contract. The spot - futures price difference has declined. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [21][26]. Peanut Import - The import volume of peanuts has significantly decreased. In September, the import volume of peanut kernels was 34,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to September was 164,000 tons, a 71% decrease compared to the same period last year. The export volume of peanut kernels in September was 10,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to September was 115,000 tons, a 24% increase compared to the same period last year. The import volume of peanut oil in September was 36,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume of peanut oil from January to September was 291,000 tons, a 47% increase compared to the same period last year [28][30]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of peanuts (such as the spot price of general peanut kernels in western Shandong, the price difference between Henan and Shandong peanuts), the spread trends (such as the 1 - 4 spread of peanuts), the import and export volume trends of peanuts (cumulative import volume of Chinese peanuts, cumulative export volume of Chinese peanut kernels), the pressing profit trends (pressing profit of peanut oil mills, price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal), the downstream data (operating rate of pressing plants, peanut pressing volume of pressing plants, peanut oil inventory of oil mills), and the import price and volume trends of peanut oil (import price of peanut oil, monthly cumulative import volume of Chinese peanut oil) [34][40][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a significant decline, the oil market has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, in the short term, there is still a lack of obvious drivers, and the expected increase is limited [25][27]. - It is expected that after the Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulates in October, it will gradually start to decline slightly, but the inventory will still remain at a moderately high level. The production forecast of Indonesian palm oil has been raised, and the inventory is expected to remain low, but the fundamentals have weakened marginally compared to before. The domestic palm oil inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the supply may be relatively loose. Currently, there is no prominent core contradiction in soybean oil, and its price fluctuates more in line with the overall trend of the oil market, with limited upward momentum but greater resilience. In the short term, the domestic rapeseed supply is insufficient, and the import volume of rapeseed oil is also relatively limited. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, but there are rumors of Australian rapeseed arrivals, which alleviates the expectation of a tight rapeseed supply [4][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 International Market - Malaysian Palm Oil - Estimated institutions predict that the Malaysian palm oil production will increase by 6% to 1.95 million tons in October, exports will increase to 1.48 million tons, and the inventory will accumulate to 2.44 million tons. However, MPOA's latest forecast shows a 12% increase to 2.07 million tons, and UOB also expects an increase of 8 - 12%. If these production forecasts are accurate, the inventory in October may increase to over 2.5 million tons. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report next Monday [5][7]. - SPPOMA predicts a 6.8% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 5 days of November. The rainfall forecast indicates that most producing areas will be dry in the next week, with more rainfall in parts of southern Malaysia. The drought will ease in the next two weeks, and southern Malaysia will still have relatively high rainfall [7]. - Some reports predict that the Malaysian palm oil production in the 2025/26 season may be 19.2 million tons, while this year's production is 19.38 million tons. Currently, the market expects the production in the new season to be flat or slightly lower year - on - year [7]. 3.1.2 International Market - Indonesian Palm Oil - Recently, the prices of Indonesian fruit bunches and CPO tender prices have been fluctuating weakly, currently lower than last year but still at a relatively high level in the same historical period. This year's production in Indonesia has recovered beyond market expectations, and Gapki has recently raised this year's production forecast to 56 - 57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8 - 10%. Some reports predict that the palm oil production in Indonesia in the 2025/26 season will be 51 million tons, 4% higher than the previous forecast but still lower than last year. The production forecast for the 2024/25 season has been raised to 53 million tons, reflecting better - than - expected production in July and August. Overall, the market has different forecasts for the production of Indonesian palm oil in the new year [10]. - The Indonesian Statistics Bureau shows that the exports of palm oil and refined palm oil from January to September this year were 17.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.62% [10]. 3.1.3 International Market - Indian Palm Oil and Edible Oil - Due to increased domestic inventory, weak demand in the food industry, and a narrowing price difference with other oilseeds, India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low of 750,000 tons. The main reason for the decrease in imports is the sufficient inventory in Indian ports and warehouses, currently holding over 1.2 million tons of edible oil. In addition, the relatively low prices of soybean oil and sunflower oil have prompted refineries to change their preferences [13]. - Traders said that India's total edible oil imports in the 2024/25 season increased slightly by 0.3% year - on - year to 16 million tons. Among them, palm oil imports decreased by 16% year - on - year to 7.56 million tons, the lowest level in five years; soybean oil imports increased by 61.6% year - on - year to a record 5.56 million tons; and sunflower oil imports decreased by 17.7% year - on - year to 2.88 million tons, the lowest level in three years. This week, there were rumors that India had purchased over 100,000 tons of palm oil and some soybean oil, with the shipping dates mainly concentrated in December and later [13]. 3.1.4 Domestic Palm Oil - As of October 31, 2025 (week 44), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.36%. Recently, the palm oil inventory has decreased slightly and is at a neutral level in the same historical period. The origin quotes are stable, and the import profit inversion has narrowed, currently around - 300. It is rumored that three ships were purchased this week, and it is expected that the palm oil purchases in October and November will exceed 200,000 tons. The basis is stable. Attention should be paid to future domestic purchases and arrivals [16]. 3.1.5 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2158 million tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.76%. Currently, the soybean oil inventory is at a relatively high level in the same historical period, but the inventory inflection point may have been reached, and the basis is strengthening steadily. This week, the total spot trading volume of soybean oil was 81,000 tons, an increase from the previous week, but the overall trading volume is still weak [20]. - China has lowered the import tariff on US soybeans to 13%, but it is still difficult for commercial purchases. However, it is rumored that domestic purchases of US soybeans have begun. Attention should be paid to the purchase rhythm of US soybeans. In the short term, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, the price increase is weak, and there is a lack of obvious drivers. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend [20]. 3.1.6 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 514,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the previous week. It is still at a high level in the same historical period, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally. Currently, the rapeseed inventory has reached the bottom, and the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills this week was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%. It is rumored that Australian rapeseed will arrive at the end of the year, which is the first export of Australian rapeseed to China in five years. The FOB quote of European rapeseed oil has remained stable at around $1,100, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,100. The market still has a sentiment of holding back sales at high prices, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis is strengthening steadily. It is expected that the coastal inventory decline trend will continue [23]. 3.1.7 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: After a significant decline, the oil market has stabilized and is experiencing a technical rebound. However, in the short term, there is still a lack of obvious drivers, and the expected increase is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [27]. - Arbitrage strategy: Long OI 1 - 5 spread and short P1 - 5 spread [27]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [27]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides a large amount of data on the production, export, inventory, consumption, and price of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in Malaysia, Indonesia, India, and the domestic market, as well as data on the import, consumption, and basis of various oils in the domestic market [31][38][43]. These data are presented in the form of tables and charts, including monthly and weekly data, which can be used to track the market trends of the oil industry.

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Picking Nears End, Cotton Prices to Fluctuate [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to move sideways due to limited fundamental changes [8]. - The domestic cotton market is likely to oscillate slightly on the stronger side in the short - term. Although there is selling hedging pressure with new cotton hitting the market, the expected increase in production may be lower than previously thought, and the positive outcome of recent Sino - US trade negotiations has been factored into the market [25][42] Summary by Directory Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamentals remain stable, and the market is expected to move sideways. As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 732,700 tons, accounting for 23.3% of the estimated annual production, 22% slower year - on - year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are 80.7% and 78.6% respectively, with the quarterly ratio up slightly. As of September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 54%, and the weekly shipment volume increased by 14% [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton market volume in the 2025/26 season reached 588,000 tons, a 22% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Brazil**: The IMEA maintains the 2025/26 cotton production forecast in Mato Grosso at 2.62 million tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous season. However, due to rising production costs and low lint prices, farmers' planting willingness is insufficient [8]. - **India**: The CAI's assessment of the 2024/25 cotton balance sheet remains stable compared to the previous month. The market expects the 2025/26 production to be between 5.525 and 5.61 million tons [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest September forecast by the USDA, the global cotton production in September was 25.62 million tons, an increase of 230,000 tons month - on - month; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and ending stocks decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8] Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: New cotton procurement is nearing completion, and prices are stable. The cost of new cotton is fixed, providing support. As of November 6, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.26 yuan/kg, and the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.98 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day. The total number of Zhengzhou cotton registered warrants and effective forecasts was 4,281, equivalent to 171,200 tons of cotton [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of November 6, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 65.4%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous week. The spinning mills' cotton inventory was 27.20 days. Although some factories increased their procurement of new cotton, most spinning mills remained on the sidelines [25] Option Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7324, and the trading volume PCR was 0.5889. It is recommended to wait and see [39] Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to move sideways [42]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [42] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: Charts show the historical trends of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 price difference [45][46]. - **Mid - stream Situation**: Data on the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, full - cotton grey fabric mills, and the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric are presented [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The table shows the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, industrial cotton inventory of spinning mills, and reserve inventory [51]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Charts display the basis trends of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US cotton and the basis between cotton yarn spot and Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contracts [54]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of raw coal is firm, the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest has declined, and the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 390 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant with high and stable operating rates. The US dollar price has accelerated its decline, the import parity has widened, and the overseas operating rate has returned to a high level. The MTO device operating rate has rebounded, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, due to high inventory pressure, methanol will continue its downward trend [4]. Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Raw Coal Situation**: As of November 5, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin was 44%. Coal mines resumed production, and the daily coal output in both regions was around 4 million tons. The demand was strong, and the pit - mouth price rose continuously [4]. - **Supply Side**: The price of raw coal was firm, the auction price of northwest mainstream methanol enterprises fell, and the profit of coal - to - methanol was around 390 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol operating rate was high and stable, and the supply was continuously abundant [4]. - **Import Side**: The US dollar price accelerated its decline, the import parity widened. Iran's production was fully normal, the non - Iranian operating rate increased slightly, and the overseas operating rate returned to a high level. The China - Europe price difference narrowed, and the Southeast Asian re - export window closed. Iran had loaded 160,000 tons in November, and the bid - winning situation of Iran's concessionary bidding improved, with abundant non - Iranian supplies [4]. - **Demand Side**: The MTO device operating rate rebounded. Some MTO devices such as Xingxing, Nanjing Chengzhi, Jiangsu Sierbang, Tianjin Bohua, and Ningbo Fude were operating at different loads. The downstream demand was stable [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: The port inventory accumulation cycle ended, and the basis was strong; the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly. The international device operating rate increased, and imports recovered. The port spot liquidity was sufficient, but the overall trading was light, and the spot basis was stable [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short at high levels without chasing the short position; for arbitrage, wait and see; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of November 6, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 76.09%, a 0.31 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.06 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 68.13%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From October 25 to October 31, 2025, the international methanol production was 1,030,859 tons, a decrease of 39,050 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 70.66%, a 2.68% decrease. There were changes in some devices such as the restart of Iran's Marjan, the resumption of the US Nat after a short - stop, the breakdown of Malaysia's Petronas' No. 1 and No. 3 devices, and the restart of a Libyan device after years of shutdown [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of November 5, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 387,000 tons, including 345,800 tons of foreign vessels and 41,200 tons of domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 82.97%, a 0.79 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 90.6%, with slight adjustments in the load of some enterprises [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 5.79%, a 0.52% decrease from last week. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 69.61%, and the formaldehyde operating rate was 41.75%, an increase from last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 23,900 tons, a decrease of 8,500 tons from the previous statistical date, a 26.23% decrease [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise order backlog was 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous period, a 2.57% increase [5]. - **Inventory - Port**: As of November 5, 2025, the total port inventory was 1,517,100 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 24,200 tons, and that in South China decreased by 13,600 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi was 322 yuan/ton. The port - to - northern line price difference was 110 yuan/ton, and the port - to - northern Shandong price difference was - 80 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis was stable [5]. - **Spot Price**: The price in Taicang was 2,100 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), and in the northern line was 1,990 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the egg market from aspects of spot, supply, cost, demand, etc. It points out that although egg demand has improved slightly and prices have rebounded, the overall situation of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the price is still fluctuating at the bottom. The increase in egg prices in the short - term is mainly due to the acceleration of old hen culling and the promotion of "Double 11". The short - term bottom of egg prices is expected to rise, but the long - term price trend still depends on the balance between supply and demand [5][15][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas this week was 2.93 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.06 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from last Friday. The egg price is expected to rise in the short - term, and the bottom is expected to be lifted [5]. - The decline of old hen prices has slowed down. The supply of the old hen market is relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of powder chickens is at a relatively low level, which has a certain supporting effect on the overall chicken price, but some high - price red chicken areas still have a slight decline risk [5]. 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - The national main producing areas' egg - laying hen culling volume in the week of November 06 was 19.81 million, a decrease of 3% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in the week of November 06 was 493 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [12]. - In October, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly hatching volume of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises in October was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [12]. 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of November 06, the corn price was around 2236 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3094 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was around 2493 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.74 yuan/jin for single - jin eggs [15]. - The egg price first fell and then rose this week, and the overall supply exceeded demand. The average egg price decreased week - on - week, so the breeding profit decreased. As of November 06, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous week [15]. 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - Affected by the "Double 11" promotion, the sales volume in the sales areas increased week - on - week. As of November 06, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative sales areas was 7300 tons, a 4% decrease compared with last week [18]. - The production - link inventory decreased week - on - week, and the circulation - link inventory increased week - on - week. As of November 06, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from last week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [18]. - The vegetable price index and pork price both rebounded slightly this week [18]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - The trading logic is that although the culling volume of culled hens has increased and the previous supply pressure has been relieved, the current in - production egg - laying hen inventory is still at a high level, and the short - term capacity reduction speed is expected to be relatively slow. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan/jin, and the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upward space is expected to be relatively limited [19]. - For trading, it is recommended to wait and see in terms of unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - Relevant data on egg - laying hen inventory, culling situation, chick replenishment, cold - storage eggs, egg - laying hen breeding, price differences, and basis are presented in graphical form, but no specific numerical analysis and conclusions are given in the text [22][26][27][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report offers a daily morning observation of the non - ferrous metals market, analyzing the market trends, important information, logical reasoning, and trading strategies of various non - ferrous metals such as precious metals, copper, alumina, etc. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.05% at $3977.17/ounce, London silver closed up 0.03% at $48.01/ounce. The US dollar index closed down 0.45% at 99.67, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.088%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar closed at 7.1188 [8]. - **Important Information**: Trump won't announce new tariffs during the Supreme Court's tariff case. The US House Speaker is less optimistic about resolving the government shutdown. The US included copper, silver, and potash in the 2025 critical minerals list. US private employment data shows a weak labor market. Fed officials have different views on December rate cuts [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple Fed officials are cautious about December rate cuts, pressuring precious metals. But risks like the government shutdown, tariff debates, and labor market risks support prices. So, precious metals are expected to continue adjusting [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use a band - trading approach for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [11]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2512 contract rose 0.33% to 85690 yuan/ton, and the LME copper closed down 0.43% at $10684/ton. LME and COMEX inventories increased [12]. - **Important Information**: The US included copper in the critical minerals list. The Fed's December rate - cut direction is unclear. Chinese copper inventories have been rising for 5 weeks. Tanzania reopened its border with Zambia [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term US government shutdown causes liquidity concerns. Copper supply remains tight, but non - US supply pressure eases. High copper prices reduce demand, and domestic inventories increase [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; hold cross - market long positions and exit when the export window opens; wait and see for options [13][14]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell 6 yuan to 2774 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed various changes [17]. - **Important Information**: Australia sold 30,000 tons of alumina at $320/ton FOB. National alumina inventories increased. Some projects in Guinea and China are in progress [17][18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply still exceeds demand. Although there are expectations of production cuts, actual cuts haven't happened, and imports and new projects put pressure on prices [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect narrow - range bottom - grinding for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The SHFE aluminum 2512 contract rose 280 yuan to 21630 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [23]. - **Important Information**: US companies' October lay - offs reached a 20 - year high. US ADP employment in October increased. Chinese aluminum ingot inventories decreased. A US aluminum smelter cut production [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data improved the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut. The supply - demand of aluminum remains tight, with overseas supply concerns and domestic consumption growth [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect an upward - biased trend for single - side trading; consider going long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage; wait and see for options [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract remained flat at 20910 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions were stable [25][26]. - **Important Information**: Similar to electrolytic aluminum, including US lay - offs, ADP employment data, and TGA balance changes. The industry's theoretical profit increased [26][27]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data eased market concerns. Supply shortages and rising raw material costs support prices, and demand is improving [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect an upward - biased trend for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [27]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.11% to $3051/ton, and the SHFE zinc 2512 rose 0.15% to 22630 yuan/ton. Shanghai zinc inventories decreased [29]. - **Important Information**: SMM seven - region zinc inventories decreased [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The mining end is tight, and processing fees are falling, leading to potential production cuts. The export window is open, but new production and export volume are uncertain [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; hold the strategy of buying SHFE zinc and selling LME zinc for arbitrage; wait and see for options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.84% to $2036.5/ton, and the SHFE lead 2512 fell 0.23% to 17405 yuan/ton. Spot prices fell, and downstream buying improved [33]. - **Important Information**: SMM five - region lead inventories increased [33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some lead - storage enterprises cut production due to high prices and high dealer inventories. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is entering the off - season [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose to $15055/ton, and the inventory decreased to 253104 tons [36]. - **Important Information**: Indonesia restricted new smelting licenses and cracked down on illegal nickel mining [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: LME nickel inventories remain high, indicating loose supply - demand. Cost support may weaken in December, and nickel prices will fluctuate weakly [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a downward - biased trend for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle option for the 2512 contract [37][39]. Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: A South Korean stainless - steel factory suspended operations due to a gas leak. National stainless - steel inventories increased slightly [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand is weak, and the supply of cold - rolled products is sufficient. Cost support is weak, and the price trend is downward [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [41]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: An industrial silicon project in Angola was completed [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: In November, demand for industrial silicon decreased, and some factories stopped production. Supply - demand is basically balanced, and prices will fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [42][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips for single - side trading; conduct a long - spread strategy for Si2512 and Si2601 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [44]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The National Energy Administration issued a guidance on coal - new energy integration [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: In November, polysilicon supply and demand both decreased, with supply decreasing more. Without new positive news, the price is weak in the short term [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a full correction for single - side trading; conduct a reverse - spread strategy for far - month contracts; no option strategy [45]. Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: A mining right in Jiangxi was under public notice. Chile's lithium carbonate exports increased in October [46][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: This week's production increased, and inventory decreased. But lithium concentrate arrivals and potential production resumptions will pressure prices in the future [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [49]. Tin - **Market Review**: The SHFE tin 2512 rose 0.11% to 283100 yuan/ton, and LME tin inventories increased [50]. - **Important Information**: Fed officials have different views on rate cuts. Yunnan over - achieved its tin exploration target. A company's tin production decreased. An electronics company's export situation changed [50][52]. - **Logic Analysis**: Fed officials' rate - cut views differ. Tin mining supply is tight, and production recovery may be delayed. Demand recovers slowly [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect high - level fluctuations for single - side trading; wait and see for options [53].