1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, concerns about liquidity due to the US government shutdown and negative feedback from high copper prices have caused copper prices to fall from their highs. However, in the long - term, the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease, and emerging consumption such as energy storage and AI has become a growth point. It is still recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Long - term non - US supply is generally tight, and after the inventory declines later, inter - period positive spreads (buying near - term and selling far - term) can be considered. After the import ratio rebounds, there are also opportunities for inter - market positive spreads [7][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Macro - aspect**: The record - high shutdown of the US government has increased short - term liquidity concerns in the market, and the uncertainty of a December interest rate cut has led to a rebound in the US dollar index, putting pressure on copper prices. But in the long - run, the expectation of US monetary easing remains unchanged, and the short - term liquidity problem will be resolved after the government reopens [7] - **Copper Mine**: In September, China imported 258.7 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, and the cumulative import volume from January to September was 2,263.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. Supply - side disturbances in copper mines have increased, with the production of Grasberg, QB Phase II, etc. falling short of expectations. On November 7, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 42.04 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.11 US dollars per ton from the previous period [7][30] - **Scrap Copper**: As of Friday, the refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,988 yuan per ton. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises this week was 27.57%, up 4.77 percentage points from last week and 2.65 percentage points year - on - year. Due to the uncertainty of the tax refund policy, most recycled copper rod enterprises in Jiangxi have stopped production, resulting in a strong demand for taxed scrap copper raw materials, and most of the taxed scrap copper raw materials in Ningbo and Guangdong are transported to Jiangxi. From January to September 2025, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 4.18%. In September, China imported 21.23 million tons of scrap copper, and the cumulative import volume from January to September was 169.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53% [38][42] - **Refined Copper**: In October, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China decreased by 2.94 million tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% and a year - on - year increase of 9.63%. The cumulative increase was 11.96%. SMM expects that in November, electrolytic copper production will decrease by 0.4 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 8.21%. The cumulative year - on - year increase is 11.62%. In December, after the concentrated maintenance in October and November, production may increase slightly, but some smelters have a low willingness to increase production due to high copper prices [5][48] - **Consumption**: Domestically, demand has weakened marginally. The real estate market continues to drag down the market, and the production schedules of photovoltaic and air - conditioning industries have declined significantly. The main support for the market in the later stage comes from orders from the two power grids, the automotive industry, and energy - storage batteries. Downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high prices, but there is an increase in purchases around 85,000 yuan per ton [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China increased by 0.32 million tons to 20.33 million tons compared with Monday, and increased by 2.07 million tons compared with last Thursday, showing a continuous 5 - week weekly inventory accumulation. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.03 million tons to 8.82 million tons. As of November 7, the LME inventory decreased to 13.5 million tons, but it is expected to increase later. The COMEX inventory has increased to over 35 million tons, and the COMEX - LME price difference is maintained at 3% - 4% [10][14][17] - **Price Difference and Ratio**: The COMEX - LME price difference is maintained at 3% - 4%, and a large amount of copper from South America is still being shipped to the US. It is recommended to consider inter - period positive spreads (buying near - term and selling far - term) after the inventory declines later. After the previous export window opened, the LME inventory is expected to increase periodically, and the import ratio may rebound slightly. After the ratio rebounds, there are opportunities for inter - market positive spreads [10] 3.2 Copper Price Trends in 2025 - Throughout the year, copper prices have been affected by multiple factors such as US trade policies, production plan adjustments of major mines, and supply - side disturbances. For example, in March, the US imposed a 25% tariff on copper, which drove up copper prices; in April, due to the US imposing reciprocal tariffs globally, copper prices plummeted panic - stricken; in September, Grasberg adjusted its production plan [12][13] 3.3 Copper Market Data - **Copper Concentrate Market**: In August 2025, the global copper concentrate production decreased. In Peru, the copper production from January to August was about 1.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In August, the copper production was 419.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.05%. In Chile, due to a collapse accident in a new mining area of the world's largest underground copper mine in July, the state - owned copper company Codelco lowered its annual copper production forecast [31][32][36] - **Scrap Copper Market**: As of Friday, the refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,988 yuan per ton. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises this week was 27.57%, up 4.77 percentage points from last week and 2.65 percentage points year - on - year. Due to the uncertainty of the tax refund policy, most recycled copper rod enterprises in Jiangxi have stopped production, resulting in a strong demand for taxed scrap copper raw materials, and most of the taxed scrap copper raw materials in Ningbo and Guangdong are transported to Jiangxi [38] - **Crude Copper Market**: In July 2025, the crude copper production was 1.0585 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 6.9996 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.76%. In September, China imported 50,100 tons of anode copper, a year - on - year decrease of 32.84%. From January to September, the cumulative import of anode copper was 578,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.58% [44][46] - **Domestic Copper Supply**: In October, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China decreased by 2.94 million tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% and a year - on - year increase of 9.63%. The cumulative increase was 11.96%. SMM expects that in November, electrolytic copper production will decrease by 0.4 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 8.21%. The cumulative year - on - year increase is 11.62%. From January to September, China imported 2.5416 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.06%; the export of refined copper was 489,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.15% [48][52] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: In October, the operating rates of refined - copper rod, copper tube, enameled wire, and copper cable enterprises all decreased month - on - month, but are expected to increase slightly in November. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased in October and is expected to continue to rise in November. The operating rate of SMM's copper plate and strip enterprises decreased slightly in October and is expected to increase slightly in November [58] - **Consumption Areas** - **Air - Conditioning Consumption**: In September 2025, China's domestic air - conditioning production was 10.567 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%; sales were 10.884 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. In November, the production schedule of domestic air - conditioners was 12.76 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.7% [62] - **Automobile Consumption**: In September, automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September, automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9%. From January to September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9% [66] - **Power Grid Investment**: From January to September 2025, China's power grid investment reached 437.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.9%, but the growth rate dropped significantly compared with that from January to August [69] - **Real Estate Market**: From January to September 2025, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing in China was 658 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the housing completion area was 311 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [70][74] - **Overseas Data**: In the US, the sales of newly - built houses and the number of newly - started private residential buildings, as well as automobile sales, and in Europe, the registration volume of passenger cars all show certain trends and changes [76][77] - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: From January to September 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 79.39GW or 49.34%. From January to September, the new wind - power installed capacity was 61.09GW, a year - on - year increase of 21.97GW or 56.16% [80] - **Global New - Energy Vehicle Sales**: In August 2025, the global new - energy vehicle sales were 1.7134 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.97%. From January to September, the new - energy vehicle sales in the US were 1.2903 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10.01% [87] 3.4 Industry News and Macro Data - In October, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China decreased month - on - month. The CSPT group did not set a TC guidance price for the fourth quarter in its third - quarter meeting. Indonesia granted Amman Mining a 400,000 - ton copper - concentrate export quota. The US and euro - zone manufacturing PMIs showed different trends. Anglo Asian Mining signed a sales contract for copper concentrates. Glencore plans to shut down a smelter in Canada. Codelco lowered its annual copper production forecast. The US government shutdown has affected market liquidity. The US employment market has shown signs of stabilization. The US included copper in its new critical - mineral list. The Fed's December interest - rate cut direction is unclear. Tanzania reopened its border with Zambia [88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market is influenced by both policy drivers and supply - demand fundamentals. Policy - driven short - term fluctuations are unsustainable, while the continuous looseness on the supply side will be the main factor dominating the market [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rubber Downstream Consumption - Rubber downstream consumption shows a significant characteristic of "stronger in the long - term, weaker in the short - term". As of November 2025, the CSI 1000 Index has risen for 7 consecutive months, with a year - on - year increase of 45.1%. The European automotive industry index has increased year - on - year for 5 consecutive months but remains negative in absolute value. The electricity consumption of the domestic rubber and plastics industry has reached a new high since 2024, but the year - on - year increase in tire production is only 1.5%, indicating that terminal demand has not fully recovered [2][14] 3.2 Policy Influence - Policy expectations have become an important factor driving the rubber market. After the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued an "anti - involution" initiative in May 2025, the correlation between rubber and policy - related commodities soared from less than 32% to over 80%. However, the policy - driven rise in rubber on October 29 was short - lived, showing the uncertainty of policy drivers [2] 3.3 Supply Situation 3.3.1 Natural Rubber - From January 2025 to March 2026 is the supply peak season for natural rubber. In November 2025, the daily average rainfall in Thailand decreased for 2 consecutive months, which is conducive to rubber tapping. In September 2025, the total natural rubber output of Southeast Asian major producing countries was 1.102 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. In the past 10 months, there have been 9 months of year - on - year increases [29] 3.3.2 Synthetic Rubber - In September 2025, the domestic butadiene apparent demand decreased to 494,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.2%, with year - on - year increases in the past 12 months. The domestic cis - butadiene rubber apparent demand increased to 131,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.9%, with year - on - year increases in 10 out of the past 11 months [29] 3.4 Inventory and Import - As of Thursday this week, the total natural rubber futures warehouse receipt inventory was 119,100 tons, a decrease of 2,570 tons from the previous period. The total 20 - rubber futures warehouse receipt inventory was 48,586 tons, an increase of 3,729 tons from the previous period. As of the week ending October 31, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 12,200 tons to 436,300 tons, a rise of 2.88% [30][31] 3.5 Market Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the RU main 01 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high of 15,085 points; hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the NR main 01 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high of 12,145 points; conduct a small - scale short - selling trial on the BR main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the recent high of 10,310 points [4] - **Arbitrage**: Hold the RU2601 - NR2601 (1 - to - 1) contract at + 2,945 points and raise the stop - loss to the recent low of + 2,915 points [4] - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] 3.6 Other Market Data - In September 2025, the domestic mixed rubber supply scale was 6.69 times that of standard rubber, compared with 4.10 times in the same period last year. Global automobile sales increased marginally for 8 consecutive months. The preferential amount in the domestic passenger car market in September was 27,000 yuan per vehicle. In October 2025, the domestic manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 points, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2% [41][49] - As of September 2025, the net import scale of cis - butadiene rubber was 17,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,300 tons. The output supply scale of cis - butadiene rubber was 289,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.0%. The domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory scale was 38,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [52][54] - As of last Friday, the operating rate of the domestic all - steel tire production line increased to 65.5%, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, with the increase rate expanding for 2 consecutive weeks. The finished product inventory of the all - steel tire production line remained at 39 days, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%, with marginal inventory accumulation for 4 consecutive weeks. The operating rate of the domestic semi - steel tire production line increased to 73.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 7.2%, with the decrease rate expanding for 2 consecutive weeks. The finished product inventory of the semi - steel tire production line remained at 45 days, a year - on - year increase of 19.6%, with the increase rate narrowing for 24 consecutive weeks and marginal inventory reduction [71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market remained in high - level oscillation this week, with price - rising factors and future expectations dominating market hotspots. The index followed technical indicators and rebounded after filling two upward gaps in the Shanghai Composite Index in late October. A - share trading volume remained around 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index will continue to rise while oscillating [4]. - The "V - shaped reversal" of the U.S. stocks on Friday night improved global capital market sentiment. The turn of China's CPI from decline to increase and the narrowing of PPI decline in October are positive for corporate profits [4]. - In the futures market, the basis widened during the decline, the discount reached the weekly maximum on Wednesday when the market rebounded, and then began to converge on Thursday with a significant decline in positions, indicating signs of short - position reduction [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Weekly Key News - On October 31, Chairman Wu Qing proposed to improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system [3]. - Affected by the AI bubble, concerns about the U.S. government shutdown, and the liquidity crisis, U.S. stocks fell across the board this week, with the Nasdaq posting its largest single - week decline since early April [3]. - In October 2025, China's CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, PPI fell 2.1% year - on - year with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and turned from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month [3]. - In October, China's export growth in U.S. dollar terms was - 1.1% (previous value 8.3%), and import growth was 1.0% (previous value 7.4%) [3]. - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [3]. - In the third quarter of 2025, China's current account surplus was 1.3948 trillion yuan, and the capital and financial account (including the net error and omission in the current quarter) had a deficit of 1.3948 trillion yuan, with inbound direct investment remaining in net inflow [3]. - On November 7, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Measures for the Administration of the Securities Settlement Risk Fund", which will come into effect on December 8, 2025, with differential adjustments to the payment ratio of the risk fund [3]. 3.1.2 Comprehensive Analysis - Logic: The market was in high - level oscillation this week. Rising prices of commodities such as phosphate fertilizer and lithium hexafluorophosphate boosted related sectors. Investment expectations in AI, Hainan Free Trade, and Haixi Construction became market hotspots, and bank stocks rose against the trend during market adjustments [4]. - Outlook: The "V - shaped reversal" of U.S. stocks on Friday night improved global capital market sentiment. The turn of China's CPI from decline to increase and the narrowing of PPI decline in October are positive for corporate profits. A - share trading volume remained around 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index will continue to rise while oscillating. In the futures market, the basis widened during the decline and then converged with a decline in positions, indicating short - position reduction [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The market is expected to rise while oscillating. Buy on dips around the Shanghai Composite Index of 3980 points and avoid chasing high prices [5]. - Arbitrage: Conduct spot - futures arbitrage by going long on IM/IC 2512 and short on ETFs [5]. - Options: Buy bull spreads on dips [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 A - share Index Performance - The performance data of A - share indices such as CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 from November 3 to November 7, 2025 are presented [9]. 3.2.2 A - share Trading Volume - The trading volume data of the A - share market and the trading volume proportion of major indices from May 6, 2025, to October 30, 2025, are shown [12][13]. 3.2.3 A - share Rise and Fall - The rise - fall situation and the proportion of stocks hitting the daily limit or daily low limit of the A - share market from August 1, 2025, to November 7, 2025, are presented [15]. 3.2.4 A - share Margin Trading - The margin balance, the ratio of margin balance to A - share floating market value, margin net buying, and the ratio of margin buying to A - share trading volume are presented [19][20]. 3.2.5 A - share Industry Performance - The weekly rise - fall rates and industry popularity of A - share industries are shown [23]. 3.2.6 A - share Industry Fund Flow - The weekly net inflow of funds and margin net buying in A - share industries are presented [26]. 3.2.7 A - share Market Financing - The IPO financing and private placement financing data of the A - share market are presented [28][29]. 3.2.8 A - share Index Valuation - The PE - TTM, PB - MRQ, and their quantiles, medians, danger values, and opportunity values of various A - share indices are presented [31]. 3.2.9 Stock Index Futures Basis Change - The basis change data of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures from October 9 to November 7, 2025, are presented [33]. 3.2.10 Stock Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Change - The trading volume and open interest change data of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures from October 9 to November 6, 2025, are presented [36]. 3.2.11 Comparison of Stock Index Futures and Spot Trading Volume - The trading volume comparison data of IM, IC, IF, and IH stock index futures and their corresponding spot indices are presented [38]. 3.2.12 Stock Index Futures Main Open Interest - The net short - position ratios of the top five and top ten holders of IF, IC, IM, and IH stock index futures are presented [41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand side of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese faces pressure, but the cost side provides some support, and it is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating trend. Previous short positions can be reduced on dips [5] - For unilateral trading, due to the weakening supply - demand margin and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom this week, and previous short positions can be reduced on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations on rallies [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Silicon - iron**: The supply side shows no downward trend, with the start - up rate and output of sample enterprises both rising and remaining at a high level. The demand side sees a decline in the apparent demand and output of steel samples, and an unexpected decline in hot - metal output. Although hot - metal output may rebound after the end of the phased production restrictions in Tangshan, there is a downward expectation on the raw - material demand side due to poor steel profits. The cost side has support as the spot price of thermal coal hits a new high this year, and the ferroalloy electricity price in the southwest production area has risen significantly after entering the dry season [5] - **Silicon - manganese**: The supply side has a slight decline but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. The demand side shows a decline in the apparent demand and output of steel samples, and more high - cost area steel mills are undergoing maintenance, increasing market concerns about negative feedback. Under the pressure of high - level supply and weakening demand, the silicon - manganese inventory has continued to rise recently. The cost side has temporary support as overseas manganese ore quotes are rising steadily, and the electricity cost has increased during the dry season [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Due to the weakening supply - demand margin and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom this week, and previous short positions can be reduced on dips [6] - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [6] - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations on rallies [6] 2. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Supply - demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig - iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 234.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14 tons. The weekly demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) is 1.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 tons; the weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types (70%) is 12.11 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34 tons [11] - **Supply**: The start - up rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 36.26%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18%; the weekly supply of silicon - iron is 11.41 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 tons. The start - up rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 40.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75%; the weekly supply of silicon - manganese (99%) is 20.19 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 tons [12] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 7th, the inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 7.87 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.67 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) is 31.95 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 tons [13] 3. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Cost and Profit - **Silicon - manganese**: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost is 5805 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 185 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 48.0%; in Ningxia, the production cost is 5834 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 274 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 21.7%; in Guangxi, the production cost is 6339 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 739 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 4.8%; in Guizhou, the production cost is 6159 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 579 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 7.0%. The production cost in the north is 5814 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 217 yuan/ton; in the south, the production cost is 6234 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 643 yuan/ton [31] - **Silicon - iron**: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost is 5556 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 336 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 31.6%; in Ningxia, the production cost is 5659 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 509 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 25.8%; in Shaanxi, the production cost is 5663 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 543 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 15.7%; in Qinghai, the production cost is 5717 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 547 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 14.3%; in Gansu, the production cost is 5765 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 565 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 11.6% [42] Other Data - **Spot price - basis**: The document provides historical data charts of the market price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17, the market price of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron 72%FeSi, the basis of the main contract of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese, and the basis of the main contract of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron [18] - **Production situation of dual - silicon enterprises**: It shows the weekly output and start - up rate of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises [23] - **Steel - mill production situation**: It includes the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly total steel output, profitability rate, social total steel inventory, and daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills [29] - **Cost of manganese ore**: It shows the price of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, the CIF quotation of South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps for shipment, and the prices of manganese ores from different origins [40] - **Cost of carbon elements and electricity price**: It shows the prices of Fugu blue - charcoal small materials, Yulin thermal - coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices [50][52] - **Steel - procurement prices of representative steel mills in Hebei**: It shows the monthly procurement prices of silicon - iron FeSi75 - B and silicon - manganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [54] - **Monthly output of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron**: It shows the monthly output and cumulative output of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, as well as the cumulative year - on - year change [60][62][65] - **Import and export of manganese ore and silicon - iron**: It shows the monthly net import volume of domestic manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of silicon - iron [67][68] - **Demand for metallic magnesium**: It shows the price of Fugu metallic magnesium Mg99.9% and the cumulative output of metallic magnesium in Yulin, Shaanxi [70] - **Silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants and steel mills**: It shows the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the regional distribution of alloy - plant silicon - iron inventory, the available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory, and the regional distribution of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory available days [73][76][78] - **Manganese - ore inventory of alloy plants, steel mills, and ports**: It shows the available days of steel - mill silicon - manganese inventory, the regional distribution of steel - mill silicon - manganese inventory available days, the total manganese - ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicon - manganese inventory of alloy plants [81][82]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Terminal demand is the main factor influencing medium - term iron ore prices, with domestic demand weakening and overseas demand maintaining high growth. Iron ore fundamentals have changed significantly, and prices are expected to be bearish at high levels [3]. - Unilateral trading should adopt a bearish approach, while arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Iron Ore Shipment - Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 31.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% or 22.7 million tons. Australian shipments decreased by 0.3% or 2.3 million tons year - on - year, while Brazilian shipments increased by 3.5% or 11 million tons year - on - year [14]. - From the perspective of mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil, since 2025, Rio Tinto's shipments have decreased by 0.3% or 1 million tons year - on - year, BHP's by 1% or 2.5 million tons, FMG's increased by 5.6% or 8.9 million tons, and VALE's increased by 0.2% or 0.5 million tons. The overall supply of the four major mines has increased by 5 million tons year - on - year [14]. - In the first three quarters, the total output of the four major mines was 852 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% or 10 million tons, with most of the increase contributed by Fortescue. The total shipments were 830 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% or 1 million tons [14]. Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment - Since 2025, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments is 5.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% or 14 million tons. Australian non - mainstream shipments decreased by 7% or 8 million tons year - on - year, while Brazilian non - mainstream shipments increased by 13% or 10.6 million tons year - on - year [16]. - An increase of $10 in the average Platts index corresponds to an annual increase of about 30 - 40 million tons in non - mainstream ore production. Non - mainstream ore shipments improved in the third quarter, and the year - on - year increase in shipments in the fourth quarter is expected to slow down [16]. Iron Ore Inventory - This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore increased significantly, the port congestion decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly, resulting in a significant increase of nearly 4 million tons in the total domestic imported iron ore inventory [22]. - Since August, the total domestic iron element inventory has continued to increase, with an accumulation of over 10 million tons. The total domestic iron element inventory is currently at a high level in the past five years, second only to the level in 2021 [25]. Iron Ore Demand - Since the third quarter of 2025, domestic hot metal production has increased by 3.7% or 11 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel production has increased by 3.5% or 12.6 million tons year - on - year. However, the apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 5.6% or 9 million tons year - on - year, and the apparent demand for non - building materials has decreased by 1.7% or 3 million tons year - on - year. Domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) has decreased by 3.5% or 11.9 million tons year - on - year [30]. - In the first nine months, overseas iron ore consumption decreased by 2% or 15 million tons year - on - year, but overseas iron element consumption increased by nearly 4% or 27.6 million tons year - on - year. India's overseas crude steel production increased by 10% or 11.6 million tons year - on - year in the first nine months, and is expected to contribute an increment of 15 million tons for the whole year [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The motivation for shipping companies to continue driving up freight rates in the second half of November is weakening. The market has already factored in the peak - season expectations in advance, and short - term fluctuations are expected. It is recommended to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [5][62]. - The demand for shipping is expected to gradually improve from November to December, but short - term performance needs to be tracked based on shipping companies' cargo - booking performance after the China - US meeting and tariff adjustments. The adjustment of the last trading day due to the Spring Festival holiday arrangement may affect the valuation of the EC2602 contract [5][62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Freight Rate Performance**: On November 7th, the SCFI European route was reported at $1323 per TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%. On November 3rd, the SCFIS European route was reported at 1208.71 points, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9% [5][11]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Shipping companies' long - term contracts have improved, but the motivation to drive up freight rates in the second half of November is weakening. From the fundamental perspective, the demand is expected to improve from November to December. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in October, November, and December this year is 233,600, 265,700, and 291,500 TEU respectively, and 300,000 TEU in January 2026. There are changes in ship schedules such as cancellations, delays, and ship replacements [5][62]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see due to expected short - term fluctuations. For arbitrage, also wait and see [5][62]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Market Performance**: The EC futures market showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. The quotes from major shipping companies in the second half of November were lower than expected, which weakened the market's expectation of the implementation of the rate increase, leading to the decline of the EC futures price to around 1800 points [8]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: The latest SCFI European route has a slight decline. The motivation to drive up freight rates in the second half of November is insufficient, and the future freight rate increase may be limited. The SCFIS European route also decreased, with the decline slightly exceeding market expectations [11][15][21]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Side Data** - On November 7th, the deployed capacity on European routes (including the Mediterranean) was 509,600 TEU, showing a slight increase compared to the previous week [25]. - Shipping companies' capacity allocation is more frequent in December. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' blank - sailing plans [28]. - The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - Nordic route in October, November, and December is 233,600, 265,700, and 291,500 TEU respectively, and 300,000 TEU in January 2026. There are changes in ship schedules such as cancellations, delays, and ship replacements [30]. - **Demand - Side Data** - The US tariff increase in August has affected global trade. In October, China's total exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, a significant drop of 9.4 percentage points from the previous month. China's exports to the US continued to decline sharply, while exports to the EU only increased by 0.9%, and exports to ASEAN maintained a growth rate of 11% [35]. - The export performance of different industries varied. The export of mechanical and electrical products remained dominant, with significant growth in the export of integrated circuits and automobiles [35]. - The performance of US - bound and non - US - bound routes continued to diverge. The impact of tariffs may still interfere with the shipping rhythm. In August 2025, the container shipping volume from Asia to Europe was 1.85 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%, while the shipping volume from Asia to North America was 2.014 million TEU, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [42]. - In October, the European economy showed an uneven recovery. The service industry led the growth, but the manufacturing industry was still under pressure. Germany and France showed significant differences, with Germany performing strongly and France's economy continuing to contract [47]. - The China - US tariff negotiation results basically met expectations. China and the US have made adjustments to tariff policies, and attention should be paid to their impact on shipping [49][50]. - **Turnover - Side Data**: The proportion of container ships on European and Mediterranean routes taking detours has dropped to about 60%. As of November 7th, 2025, the number of container ships taking detours on European and Mediterranean routes was 245, accounting for 63% [51]. - **Geopolitical Risk**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is volatile. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of the cease - fire agreement [54][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn: The US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may be further reduced later. The 12 - contract of US corn has strong support at 400 cents per bushel and will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The focus of the market is on the grain - selling rhythm in Northeast China, with expected selling pressure in November. Northeast corn is weak in the short term, while the supply in North China is increasing. The spot price of corn is oscillating at the bottom. The 01 corn futures will oscillate at the bottom with limited short - term rebound, and the 05 is expected to oscillate strongly [4][5]. - Starch: The operating rate of starch factories is rising, but downstream demand is weak, resulting in an increase in inventory. The spot price of starch is relatively weak, and there is still room for the spot price to fall with the large - scale listing of new corn. The 01 corn starch will follow the corn to oscillate at the bottom [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn Situation**: The US corn is expected to see a yield per unit reduction, but the yield is high. The 12 - contract of US corn has strong support at 420 cents per bushel. There is no profit in importing US corn. The market focus is on the Northeast selling rhythm, with expected selling pressure in November. Northeast corn is weak, North China's supply is increasing, and the spot price is at the bottom. The North Port purchase price may fall to around 2070 yuan/ton. The 01 corn futures will oscillate at the bottom with limited rebound, and the 05 is expected to oscillate strongly [4]. - **Starch Situation**: The operating rate of starch factories is rising, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is at a historical high. The spot price of starch is relatively weak, and there is still room for it to fall. The 01 corn starch will follow the corn to oscillate at the bottom [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try to buy the 12 - contract of US corn below 420 cents per bushel. Long - term buy the 05 corn below 2220. Try to buy 01 corn and sell 01 starch, and shrink the spread when it is high. Adopt the strategy of accumulating purchases for the 05 corn at low prices [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International Market - **Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's September report, although the yield per unit of US corn may be further reduced, the overall supply is still loose. The ending stocks of global and US corn have slightly decreased. The import tariffs of US corn and sorghum in China have been adjusted, but there is still no profit in importing US corn [8][11]. - **Market Position and Ethanol Production**: As of September 23, the non - commercial net short position of US corn increased, and ethanol production increased. The 12 - contract of US corn oscillates around 430 cents per bushel [17]. 3.2.2 Domestic Market - **Inventory and Consumption**: Feed enterprise corn inventory increased but is lower than the same period last year. Deep - processing consumption increased, and inventory decreased slightly but is expected to increase next week. North Port corn inventory increased, and South Port grain inventory decreased [21][22][25]. - **Grain - Selling Progress**: The grain - selling progress is faster than last year. The overall progress of 13 provinces is 22%, 3% higher than the same period last year; the progress of 7 provinces is 18%, 2% higher than the same period last year [28]. - **Starch Market**: The operating rate of starch factories increased, downstream demand was weak, inventory increased significantly year - on - year, and enterprise profits decreased [32]. - **Substitute Market**: The wheat price is basically stable, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened [39]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: From October 30 to November 6, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was - 35 yuan per head, a decrease of 10 yuan per head from last week; the profit of purchasing piglets was - 117 yuan per head, an increase of 13 yuan per head from last week. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was - 0.31 yuan per bird, and the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.52 yuan per catty [48][54]. - **Starch Downstream Consumption**: The operating rate of starch sugar and paper mills increased. The operating rate of F55 high - fructose syrup was 40.67%, an increase of 2.62% from last week; the operating rate of maltose syrup was 43.09%, an increase of 1.48% from last week. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 69.9%, an increase of 0.73% from last week; the operating rate of boxboard paper was 71.47%, an increase of 0.63% from last week [57]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitutes**: The price of wheat in North China is around 2490 yuan/ton, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the high - inventory context, methanol will mainly continue its downward trend due to factors such as high domestic supply, increasing imports, and relatively stable downstream demand [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: The futures market fluctuated and closed at 2112 (-4/-0.19%) [2] - Spot market: Various production and consumption regions and ports had different price quotes, with production areas like Inner Mongolia南线 at 1950 yuan/ton and consumption areas like Lunan at 2100 yuan/ton [2] Important Information - As of November 5, 2025, China's methanol port inventory was 151.71 million tons, an increase of 1.06 million tons from the previous period. East China saw inventory accumulation while South China had inventory reduction [3] Logical Analysis - Supply side: Coal - to - methanol profit is around 400 yuan/ton, with high and stable methanol operating rate and continuous domestic supply [4] - Import side: US dollar prices are stable, import profit margins are expanding, Iranian gas restrictions haven't occurred yet, and foreign operating rates are high [4] - Demand side: Traditional downstream industries enter the off - season with a decline in operating rate, while MTO device operating rate rebounds [4] - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, with basis strong; inland enterprise inventory fluctuates slightly [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high positions, do not chase short [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Sell call options [9]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a coal daily report dated November 7, 2025, focusing on the coal market [1] Group 2: Market Review - On November 7, port market quotes rose. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 840 - 850 yuan/ton, 5000 - kcal at 740 - 750 yuan/ton, and 4500 - kcal at 640 - 650 yuan/ton. Different regions had different price ranges for various coal types [2] Group 3: Important Information - In October 2025, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal, a 9.75% year - on - year decrease and a 9.27% decrease from September. From January to October 2025, China imported 38762.30 million tons of coal, a 11% year - on - year decrease [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: Restrictions on production still affected the market. Coal mine opening rates in major production areas like Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were generally stable. As of November 7, the opening rate in Ordos was 71%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 3.8 million tons, and the domestic supply tightened [4] - Import: Affected by the improvement of domestic coal prices, the sentiment in the import market continued to warm up this week. Due to the good price advantage of imported coal, the inquiry enthusiasm of coastal power plants increased significantly, and the market trading atmosphere improved [4] - Demand: Some regions entered the coal - consuming peak season, and the power load showed an obvious upward trend. Most power plants operated at about 70% load, and the available days of power plant inventory remained at a high level. Power plants mainly fulfilled long - term contracts and made only a small amount of necessary purchases in the market [4] - Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line was 1 million tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 20. Port inventory was generally stable. As of November 7, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 22.37 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. Coastal power plants had low daily consumption but continuous inventory reduction, while inland power plants had neutral inventory [4] - Forecast: It is expected that coal prices will rise in the short term as the production in major coal - producing areas is low, power plant inventory is decreasing, import profits are available, and both port inflow and outflow are low [4]

Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical research report focusing on urea, dated November 7, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the domestic urea market may experience a rebound due to the news of the fourth batch of export quotas, but in the medium - to - long - term, the urea fundamentals remain loose and the market is expected to run weakly [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures rose, closing at 1667 (+27/+1.65%) [3] - **Spot Market**: Factory prices increased with fair trading volume. The factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1530 - 1550 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1550 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1530 - 1540 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1410 - 1490 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 7, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.79 tons, an increase of 0.20 tons from the previous working day and 1.44 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.61%, a 3.44% increase from 81.17% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - **Supply Side**: Maintenance devices are gradually resuming operation, and the average daily production has increased to around 19.6 tons. Urea production enterprise inventories have slightly increased by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, remaining at a high level [5] - **Demand Side**: The market rumor of the fourth batch of export quotas (about 600,000 tons) has increased the influence of the international market on the domestic one. However, the compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grass - roots stocking is winding up, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low. The overall domestic demand is showing a downward trend [5] - **Price Trend**: The domestic spot price is oscillating between 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the news of export quotas will boost market sentiment, but in the medium - to - long - term, the market will still be weak due to the approaching end of autumn fertilizers and the upcoming "vacuum period" of domestic demand [5] Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Short - term rebound [6] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]