Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn supply is abundant, and although the price has been falling, the decline space is limited due to significant trading volume at the current level. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the December Brazilian import price at 2,100 yuan. [5] - The domestic corn spot market is relatively stable in the short - term, but is under pressure from imports and domestic corn auctions. In North China, the supply of corn is expected to be tight in August due to low trader inventories and some feed enterprises' stocking. [5][7] - The corn starch inventory has increased this week. In the long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a loss state. The short - term 09 starch futures contract is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures, contracts C2601, C2605, and C2509 had closing prices of 2,188, 2,255, and 2,262 respectively, with price changes of 4, 7, and 7 and percentage changes of 0.18%, 0.31%, and 0.31% respectively. For corn starch futures, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 had closing prices of 2,560, 2,616, and 2,642 respectively, with price changes of 8, 7, and 0 and percentage changes of 0.31%, 0.27%, and 0.00% respectively. [3] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions showed some fluctuations, with prices in Qinggang, Jiajishenghua, and other places ranging from 2,220 to 2,514 yuan. Starch spot prices in different enterprises were between 2,800 and 3,020 yuan, with a 30 - yuan decrease in Hengren Gongmao. [3] - **Spreads**: Corn inter - period spreads such as C01 - C05 was - 67 with a change of - 3, and starch inter - period spreads like CS01 - CS05 was - 56 with a change of 1. The cross - variety spreads, for example, CS09 - C09 was 380 with a change of - 7. [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn supply is loose, and the price decline space is limited. The domestic corn spot market is relatively stable in the short - term, but is affected by imports and auctions. In North China, the supply is expected to be tight in August, and the price is expected to have strong support around 2,400 yuan/ton at the end of August. [5][7] - **Starch**: The inventory of corn starch has increased. In the long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises will be in a loss state. The short - term 09 starch futures contract is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The domestic 09 corn futures contract will fluctuate within a narrow range. Short - term long positions can be taken when the 09 corn price pulls back, and short - term short positions can be taken at high prices for the 01 corn contract. [10] - **Arbitrage**: Buy spot and short 09 corn in a rolling manner, and wait and see for the spread between 09 corn and starch. [10] 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategies suggest that enterprises with spot positions can close out short positions in corn call options, or short - term traders can try to sell at high prices and operate in a rolling manner. [13] 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn spot prices in different regions, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spreads, corn starch 9 - 1 spreads, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch - corn 09 contract spreads from different years. [15][16][17]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The supply of peanuts is still low, but the downstream demand remains weak, so the peanut prices are expected to be relatively weak in the short term. The price of peanut oil is stable, and the peanut meal has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mills from peanut pressing is acceptable. Peanut 10 futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. With the expected increase in planting area, decrease in planting cost, and the listing of some spring peanuts, Peanut 10 will continue to oscillate narrowly [5][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: PK604 closed at 7960, down 10 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 24 (up 26.32%) and an open interest of 252 (up 6.33%); PK510 closed at 8074, down 24 (-0.30%), with a trading volume of 34,942 (up 3.59%) and an open interest of 98,959 (down 0.27%); PK601 closed at 7948, down 10 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 3,815 (up 76.70%) and an open interest of 16,339 (up 8.21%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China were stable. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.2 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.25 - 4.35 yuan/jin, and in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was 8300 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of peanut oil was 7650 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost - price of oil mills was 8110 yuan/ton. The price of domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil was 14800 yuan/ton, and the market price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton [5]. - **By - products**: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal was strong, reaching 2930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from yesterday. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and the peanut meal was expected to be weak in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3250 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spreads**: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was - 12 (unchanged), PK04 - PK10 was - 114 (up 14), and PK10 - PK01 was 126 (down 14) [3]. Second Part: Market Analysis - The prices of peanuts in Henan and Northeast China were stable, and the price of imported Sudan refined peanuts was also stable. It is expected that the peanut spot will be relatively weak in the short term. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, and the prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable [5]. Third Part: Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Peanut 10 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see, and mainly short after a rebound [10]. - **Month - spread**: Wait and see [11]. - **Options**: Sell pk510 - C - 8800 [12]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between Peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between Peanut 1 - 4 contracts [14][20][23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Short - term, the market focuses on the cease - fire negotiation between the US and Russia on the Russia - Ukraine issue and India's attitude towards Russian oil sanctions. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to be falsified, and the price is bearish. Brent should pay attention to the support around $65.5 per barrel [1][2] - **Asphalt**: It maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term and more resistant to decline than crude oil. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3450 - 3550 [3][5] - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly reduced, and the demand is mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil's supply is rising and the demand has no specific driver. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7] - **PX**: Supply is recovering in August, and the demand side lacks upward drive. The price is expected to be in a range - bound consolidation [7][9] - **PTA**: Supply load has rebounded, and the demand side lacks upward drive. The price is expected to be in a range - bound consolidation [9][10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [12][13] - **Short Fiber**: The processing fee has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [15][16] - **PR (Bottle Chip)**: The processing fee has rebounded and stabilized. The price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [18][19] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene's supply and demand are expected to be relatively balanced, and the price has strong support. Styrene's supply is expected to increase, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The price of pure benzene is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [19][21] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC's supply and demand are expected to be weak, and short positions should be held. Caustic soda's price is expected to be in a volatile trend, and short positions should be closed at low prices [25][26] - **Plastic and PP**: The overall supply - demand pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [27][28] - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, and the strategy is to short at high prices without chasing the short [29][30] - **Urea**: Supply is abundant, and demand is declining. The strategy is to short at high prices without chasing the short [31] - **Soda Ash**: Supply increases, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [33][34] - **Glass**: After the price increase, the inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [35][37] - **Log**: Supply is in a pulsed fluctuation, and demand improvement is limited. The market is generally stable and slightly strong, but long - term demand needs to be observed [38][40] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Supply is slightly reduced, and demand support is general. The price is generally stable [40][42] - **Pulp**: The inventory shows a marginal destocking trend. The strategy is to hold short positions in the main 11 - contract [42][44] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The strategy is to try to go long in the main 09 - contract [45][47] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: For the RU main 01 - contract, wait and see; for the NR main 10 - contract, try to go long. Consider arbitrage opportunities in RU2511 - NR2511 [47][49] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2509 was stable at $63.88 per barrel, Brent2510 rose $0.16 to $66.59 per barrel, and SC2510 fell to 493 yuan per barrel. The Brent main - secondary spread was $0.61 per barrel [1] - **Related News**: The US and Russia may negotiate to end the Ukraine war, and India has put on hold the plan to purchase US weapons and is open to reducing Russian oil imports [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term feed demand is okay, and the market focuses on geopolitical events. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to be falsified [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: gasoline cracking is weak, diesel cracking is strong; Options: wait and see [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3484 points (+0.17%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3394 points (+0.09%) at night [3] - **Related News**: Shandong's mainstream transaction price fell by 5 yuan per ton, and the supply - demand pattern was loose [3] - **Logic Analysis**: July's actual output was higher than expected, and the demand in the south and north was weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [4][5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; Options: wait and see [5] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 2776 (-0.82%) at night, and LU10 closed at 3464 (-0.89%) at night [5] - **Related News**: Iraq seized an oil tanker, and the domestic low - sulfur production in July decreased [5][6] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply pressure is slightly reduced, and low - sulfur supply is rising [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: wait and see [7] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6726 (-0.33%) on Friday and 6748 (+0.33%) at night [7] - **Related News**: China's PX and PTA operating rates increased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is recovering, and demand lacks upward drive [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [9] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4684 (-0.09%) on Friday and 4692 (+0.17%) at night [9] - **Related News**: China's PTA and polyester operating rates increased [9] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply load has rebounded, and demand lacks upward drive [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [12] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4384 (-0.27%) on Friday and 4391 (+0.16%) at night [12] - **Related News**: China's ethylene glycol operating rate increased [12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [14] Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 closed at 6382 (-0.16%) on Friday and 6398 (+0.25%) at night [15] - **Related News**: China's short - fiber operating rate increased, and the inventory increased [16] - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has slightly increased [16] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [17] PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2510 closed at 5898 (-0.34%) on Friday and 5924 (+0.44%) at night [16][18] - **Related News**: The bottle - chip operating rate was flat, and the export price was lowered [18] - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee has rebounded and stabilized, and the price is expected to be in a low - level oscillation [19] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: range - bound consolidation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [20] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 6204 (-0.70%) on Friday and 6213 (+0.15%) at night. EB2509 closed at 7235 (-0.84%) on Friday and 7230 (-0.07%) at night [19] - **Related News**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene and their downstream products changed [21] - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene's supply and demand are expected to be balanced, and styrene's supply is expected to increase [21] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [20][22] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices were weakly volatile, and caustic soda spot prices were stable [22][23] - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling changed [23][24] - **Logic Analysis**: PVC's supply and demand are expected to be weak, and caustic soda's price is expected to be volatile [25][26] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: PVC hold short positions, caustic soda close short positions at low prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [27] Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The prices of LLDPE and PP in different regions changed [27] - **Related News**: The inventory of major producers increased [28] - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity is being put into production, and demand is expected to be weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [28] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [28][29] Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 2384 (-0.17%) at night [29] - **Related News**: International methanol production increased [29] - **Logic Analysis**: International supply is recovering, and domestic supply is abundant. The strategy is to short at high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: short at high prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell call options [30][31] Urea - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1728 (-0.52%) [31] - **Related News**: Northeast urea arrivals decreased [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is declining, and the strategy is to short at high prices [31] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: short at high prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell put options on dips [31][32] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1249 (-1.4%) on Friday and 1242 (-0.6%) at night [33] - **Related News**: Domestic soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [33][34] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [34][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: wait and see [35] Glass - **Market Review**: The futures closed at 1063 (-1.21%) on Friday and 1064 (+0.09%) at night [35] - **Related News**: Glass inventory increased, and production was stable [35][36] - **Logic Analysis**: After the price increase, the inventory is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [36][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: weakly volatile; Arbitrage: consider going long FG01 and short SA01; Options: wait and see [38] Log - **Market Review**: The 9 - contract price fell to 830.5 yuan per cubic meter [39] - **Related News**: Log prices were stable, and imports decreased [38] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is in a pulsed fluctuation, and demand improvement is limited [39][40] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: wait and see, aggressive investors can short near the previous high; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [40] Offset Printing Paper - **Market Review**: The double - offset paper market was generally stable [40] - **Related News**: Some production lines were shut down for maintenance, and Suzano cut production [40][42] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is slightly reduced, and demand support is general [42] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP main 11 - contract rose 0.23% [42] - **Related News**: Jiulong Paper raised prices, and downstream packaging enterprises responded [43][44] - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory shows a marginal destocking trend [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: hold short positions in the main 11 - contract; Arbitrage: wait and see [45] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The BR main 09 - contract rose 1.26% [45] - **Related News**: China's rubber imports increased [46][47] - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory changes vary [47] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: try to go long in the main 09 - contract; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [47] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: The RU main 01 - contract rose 0.77%, and the NR main 10 - contract rose 0.06% [47][48] - **Related News**: China's rubber imports increased [49] - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory changes vary [49] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: RU main 01 - contract wait and see, NR main 10 - contract try to go long; Arbitrage: consider RU2511 - NR2511; Options: wait and see [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market currently has low inventory and is in the off - season of demand, with general spot sales. The new - season apple production is expected to change little compared to this season. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Apple Spot Analysis - In the western region, there was limited trading of early - maturing apples this week. Paper - bag Gala apples were sporadically on the market, and the trading of paper - bag Qinyang apples was almost finished. In Shandong, the inventory Fuji apples' sales were slightly faster than last week, but overall transactions were still low. The prices of early - maturing apples were weak, and the inventory apples' prices were stable during the week. In the wholesale markets of sales areas, high - quality apples fetched high prices, but the overall sales were still slow. Next week, the supply of early - maturing paper - bag Gala apples will increase, and attention should be paid to their quality and price trends [8]. - In Shandong, the trading atmosphere has not improved significantly. Buyers are not active in purchasing large and high - quality apples and tend to bargain. Most fruit farmers and sellers sell at the market price, and some are eager to sell. The remaining supply in Shandong is mainly in Qixia and Penglai, and the traded apples are mostly low - priced slice - red apples. In Qixia, the prices of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples are 3.30 - 4.00 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples are 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin, general apples are 2.80 - 3.30 yuan/jin, and third - grade apples are 2.00 - 2.50 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi, the inventory apples are mainly self - consumed by merchants, with slow sales. The prices of high - quality apples are temporarily stable. In Xianyang, early - maturing Gala apples have problems such as greening and poor coloring due to high temperatures. In Weinan and Tongchuan, rainfall after bag - removal is beneficial for Gala apples' coloring. Currently, a small amount of Gala apples are on the market, with a significant price gap between high - quality and low - quality ones. For example, in Chengcheng, the price of early - maturing paper - bag Gala apples starting from 70 with 30% redness is around 4.2 - 4.3 yuan/jin, and high - quality ones are around 4.5 yuan/jin [8]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of August 7, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 3.91%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points in this period (20250731 - 0806), and 2.93 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The de - stocking rate was 93.86%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 6.48%, a decrease of 0.67 percentage points. The overall cold - storage shipment volume was lower than last week, and the current shipment was mainly concentrated in the main production areas. The number of merchants inspecting goods in cold - storage increased slightly this week, and the transactions also improved, but most of the goods were not sent to the market after the transaction, and the actual shipment volume decreased. The cold - storage shipment speed was lower than last year, mainly affected by the low prices of other seasonal fruits. Cold - storage operators were eager to ship, especially for some lower - quality goods. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 3.58%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points. There was little remaining inventory in cold - storage, and there was almost no trading in the cold - storage. Merchants shipped their own goods according to market demand. High temperatures and low prices of other fruits significantly impacted the apple demand, and the merchants' shipment volume decreased [13]. - As of August 6, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas of the country was 53.39 tons, a decrease of 8.02 tons compared to last week. The sales speed slowed down slightly compared to last week and was basically the same as last year [13]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Chalong market in Guangdong, the number of early - morning arriving vehicles decreased slightly compared to last week, with an average of about 14.6 vehicles per day. The typhoon and rainy weather this week affected apple consumption. The low prices of seasonal fruits increased their sales, and some spot merchants switched to seasonal fruits, which impacted the apple market sales. The number of arriving vehicles in the market remained at a low level, the terminal consumption slowed down slightly, and second - and third - level wholesalers purchased on demand [16]. - According to the data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on August 7 was 7 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and it was at the median level in recent years [16]. - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage operators of 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.5 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin compared to last week [16]. - The market arrival volume this week continued to be low, slightly increasing compared to last week. The sales were stable, and the prices were stable. The arrival volume in the wholesale market was not much different from last week and generally remained at a low level. Recently, the supply of new - season early - maturing apples in the market increased, and the cold - storage supply decreased. According to Zhuochuang Information, the apple arrival volume in the Guangzhou Chalong market was about 131 vehicles, an increase of 9 vehicles compared to last week. The apple sales speed in the market was stable. High temperatures in many places recently made watermelons and other fruits the mainstream demand in the market, which significantly impacted other fruits. The overall apple demand was weak, and most merchants were not very enthusiastic about operating apples, with a low shipment volume to the market. The mainstream transaction prices in the market remained stable [16]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ferroalloy market shows a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with a relatively stable fundamental situation. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the potential pressure caused by the continuous increase in supply in the later stage. After the cooling of the "anti - involution" trading sentiment, the weights of the delivery and basis logic for the 09 contract are gradually increasing, and it is expected to fluctuate around the warehouse receipt cost this week [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, despite the previous call for self - restraint in production by leading enterprises, the production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese continued to rise slightly this week due to price increases. On the demand side, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased slightly, and the molten iron output of 247 steel mills also declined, but remained at a high level. Steel production increased slightly month - on - month, and the number of steel mill tenders also rose, providing support for alloys. In terms of cost, electricity prices were stable this week, and port manganese ore prices were generally firm, with overseas mines mostly raising their September US dollar quotes slightly. Overall, the alloy market shows a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with a stable fundamental situation [4]. - **Market sentiment**: The leading "anti - involution" varieties showed differentiation this week. Although polysilicon and coking coal both closed up on the weekly line, their upward momentum slowed down significantly, and their driving effect on other commodities also weakened. After entering August, the weights of delivery and basis logic for the 09 contract began to gradually increase, and it is expected that commodity performance will continue to differentiate [4]. Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Operate around the warehouse receipt cost [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the basis is at a low level [5]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 0.0039 million tons month - on - month. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 20,300 tons, an increase of 300 tons month - on - month; the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products was 125,200 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons month - on - month [10]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 34.32%, an increase of 0.56% month - on - month; the national ferrosilicon production was 109,100 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons month - on - month. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 43.43%, an increase of 1.25% month - on - month; the national silicomanganese production was 195,800 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 8th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 72,000 tons, an increase of 6,200 tons month - on - month; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 161,500 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons month - on - month [12]. Spot Price - Basis - Graphs show the market prices of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi, as well as the basis of the main contract for Inner Mongolia silicomanganese and ferrosilicon from 2021 - 2025 [17]. Production Situation of Double - Silicon Enterprises - Graphs present the weekly production and operating rates of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [23]. Steel Mill Production Situation - Graphs display the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly total steel production, profitability rate, social total steel inventory, and daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [29]. Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - There are tables and graphs showing the production costs, profits, and monthly production proportions of silicomanganese in different regions on August 7, 2025 [31]. Cost - Manganese Ore Price - Graphs show the prices of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps FOB quotes, Tianjin Port manganese ore prices, and manganese ore forward FOB quotes from 2021 - 2025 [39]. Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - There are tables and graphs presenting the production costs, profits, and monthly production proportions of ferrosilicon in different regions on August 7, 2025 [41]. Cost - Carbon Element and Electricity Price - Graphs show the prices of Fugu blue carbon small materials, Yulin thermal coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 - 2025 [48][51]. Double - Silicon Steel Tendering Prices of Representative Hebei Steel Mills - Graphs display the procurement prices of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B and silicomanganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2020 - 2025 [53]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Production - Graphs show the cumulative and monthly production of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon from 2021 - 2025 [60][63]. Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - Graphs present the monthly net imports of Chinese manganese ore and the monthly net exports of ferrosilicon from 2012 - 2025 [68]. Magnesium Metal Demand - Graphs show the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative production of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi from 2013 - 2025 [70]. Silicon - Iron Inventory of Alloy Plants vs. Steel Mills - Graphs display the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the regional silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills, and the regional available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [74]. Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports - Graphs show the available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the regional available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the total manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy plants from 2021 - 2025 [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a state where supply fundamentals are peaking, with high crude steel supply and seasonal decline in demand, resulting in certain supply - demand pressures. However, due to coal mine production checks and expected steel mill production restrictions in August, the subsequent iron - water output may decline, which could drive the futures market up. In the short term, steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level trend. Traders are advised to wait and see for single - side trading, consider positive basis trading when the basis is low and narrowing the spread between hot - rolled and rebar for arbitrage, and wait and see for options trading [4][7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar increased by 10.12 tons to 221.18 tons, while that of hot - rolled decreased by 7.9 tons to 314.89 tons. The daily average iron - water output of 247 blast furnaces was 240.32 tons (- 0.39 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 34.5% (+ 1.4%). The production enthusiasm of the overall steel industry was relatively strong [4]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 210.79 tons (+ 7.38 tons), and that for hot - rolled was 306.21 tons (- 13.79 tons). Steel exports declined due to rising prices. The real estate market was still in a downward trend, but the manufacturing PMI expanded, and the automobile industry maintained positive growth in both domestic and foreign demand, while the home appliance industry entered a demand off - season [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 10.39 tons, hot - rolled inventory increased by 8.68 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.47 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, steel prices may maintain a high - level trend. Future attention should be paid to overseas tariffs and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, maintain a high - level trend and recommend waiting and seeing; for arbitrage, recommend positive basis trading when the basis is low and narrowing the spread between hot - rolled and rebar; for options, recommend waiting and seeing [9]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: The rebar summary price in Shanghai was 3340 yuan (- 20 yuan), and in Beijing was 3300 yuan (+ 40 yuan). The hot - rolled price in Shanghai was 3460 yuan (+ 50 yuan), and in Tianjin was 3400 yuan (+ 20 yuan) [13]. - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of East - China electric furnaces was - 44.37 yuan (+ 9.5 yuan), and the valley - rate electricity profit was + 121 yuan (+ 10 yuan). The profit of long - process steel decreased slightly but remained above 100 yuan [4][30]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Domestic Policies**: A new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" will be implemented on February 1, 2026. Seven departments including the central bank issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new industrialization, and three departments issued a plan for a new round of rural road improvement [32]. - **Foreign Policies**: The US may impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [32]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: In June, the new social financing scale was 4.2 trillion yuan, with an increase in both new RMB loans and government bond issuance. The M1 - M2 growth rate was - 3.7%, with a significant reduction in the decline. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was + 2.8%, with a decline in the growth rate [42]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 blast furnaces was 240.32 tons (- 0.39 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 electric furnaces was 34.5% (+ 1.6%). The small - sample production of rebar increased, while that of hot - rolled decreased [4][62][67]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar increased, while that for hot - rolled decreased. The export of steel decreased due to rising prices. The real estate market was still weak, the manufacturing industry expanded, the automobile industry maintained growth, and the home appliance industry entered an off - season [4][70]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled both increased, and the total inventory of five major steel products also increased [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti -内卷 driving force in the soda ash and glass markets is weakening, and the fundamentals are gradually taking the lead. The market trends are mainly oscillating weakly [14][23]. - For soda ash, supply is increasing, demand is stable, and the inventory is in an accumulating trend. The spot price is falling to narrow the basis. It is expected that the futures price will show a weakly oscillating trend next week [14]. - For glass, the daily production is stable, but due to the release of spot goods in the market, the inventory is increasing, and the demand growth is limited. The spot price is weak, and it is expected that the futures price will also show a weakly oscillating trend [23]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, the soda ash production was 74.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5 tons (6.4%). The daily production was 10.5 - 10.7 tons. The supply increased due to the capacity enhancement of some enterprises such as Shandong Haihua and Henan Junhua. It is expected that the weekly production next week will be over 75 tons. The large - scale maintenance is expected to start in September, but the maintenance premium and scale are limited [7]. - The theoretical profit of soda ash in China's joint - alkali method (double - ton) was 68.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 38 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was 56.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 yuan/ton. The coal price is rising, and the cost is increasing, while the spot price of soda ash is falling slightly [7]. 3.1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 67.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.1%. The demand for heavy soda ash was 37.9 tons (a 9.5% decrease), and that for light soda ash was 29.7 tons (a 15.3% decrease). After a two - month upward trend, both the intermediate and downstream inventories are relatively sufficient, and the short - term replenishment willingness is not strong [10]. - The futures price first rose and then fell this week, and the spot goods in the market increased, causing the spot price to fall [10]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream: The soda ash factory inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 186.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.9 tons. Among them, the light soda ash inventory increased by 2.5 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory increased by 4.5 tons. In terms of regions, except for Central and South China where the sales rate exceeded 100%, the inventory in Northwest China increased by 6 tons [13]. - Intermediate: The intermediate inventory showed an increasing trend, with the social inventory increasing by 16.4% to 44.9 tons, and the growth rate of social inventory slowed down. There were 3310 warehouse receipts [13]. - Downstream: For the soda ash inventory of float glass enterprises, in some sample factories, the inventory days decreased, while the inventory days including the goods to be delivered increased to varying degrees [13]. 3.1.4 Market Performance and Strategy - The market performance of soda ash was oscillating. With the weakening of the anti -内卷 driving force, the market showed differentiation. Considering the fundamentals, the supply increased, the demand was stable, and the inventory was accumulating. The spot price was falling. - Strategy: For single - side trading, it is expected to show a weak trend, and attention should be paid to macro - disturbances; for arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of going long FG01 and short SA01; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - The daily production of float glass was 15.96 tons, remaining stable week - on - week, with 223 production lines. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 150.36 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; that using coal - made gas as fuel was 111.05 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28.63 yuan/ton; that using petroleum coke as fuel was 130.57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton [17]. - As the futures price fell, the social inventory was released, while some downstream enterprises mainly consumed their own inventories. The supply was sufficient, the upstream inventory was accumulating, and enterprises reduced prices [17]. 3.2.2 Demand - After a two - month upward trend, both the intermediate and downstream inventories were relatively sufficient, and the short - term replenishment willingness was not strong. The deep - processing orders did not improve significantly. As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%. The deep - processing profit was still low [20]. 3.2.3 Market Performance and Strategy - This week, the glass market showed a downward trend. As the futures price fell, the spot goods in the market were released, negatively affecting the spot market. The inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 3.95% week - on - week. The enterprise profit decreased slightly, and the supply side was not yet in the cold - repair loss area [23]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, it is expected to show a weak trend, and attention should be paid to macro - disturbances; for arbitrage, go long glass and short soda ash; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [23].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The trading volume of peanuts has decreased, the price of general peanuts has continued to decline, and the purchase price of oil mills has remained stable. The downstream consumption is still weak, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to establish short positions above 8300 for October peanuts, try the option strategy of selling pk510 - C - 8400, and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 10 - 1 spread when it is high [5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Option strategy: Try selling the pk510 - C - 8400 option strategy [5]. - Trading logic: Decreased peanut trading volume, falling general peanut prices, stable oil mill purchase prices, weak downstream consumption, and oscillating futures prices at the bottom [6]. - Strategy: Establish short positions above 8300 for October peanuts [6]. - Spread strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage for the 10 - 1 spread when it is high [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Peanut price: The price of general peanuts has declined, with the price of Henan peanuts dropping. The purchase price of oil mills and the price of imported peanuts have remained stable. Shandong Junan large peanuts are at 4.1 yuan/jin, Henan Zhengyang new - season peanuts are at 4.25 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin from last week), Liaoning Changtu Baisha is at 4.2 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin from last week), and Jilin Fuyu Baisha is at 4.2 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin from last week). The price of Sudanese peanuts is 8300 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The oil mill's basic purchase price is between 7500 - 7650 yuan/ton, remaining stable [9][11]. - Domestic demand: The operating rate of oil mills has slightly increased. As of August 7, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 5.11%, a 0.8% increase from the previous week. The inventory of oil mills has decreased, with the arrival volume this week at 0.08 million tons, an increase. The peanut inventory of oil mills is 96,300 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week, and the peanut oil inventory is 39,000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week [13][15]. - Pressing profit: The purchase price of peanuts and the price of peanut oil are stable, but the pressing profit has slightly decreased. The pressing profit of peanut oil mills is 119 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from last week. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week, and the price of small - squeezed concentrated fragrant oil is 16,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The price of peanut meal is strong, at 3260 yuan/ton this week, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from last week [17][19]. - Basis and spread: It is advisable to wait and see. This week, the October - January spread of peanuts has remained stable at around 140 yuan, and the spot - futures price difference has declined [21][24]. - Peanut imports: In June, the import of peanut kernels was 27,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative import was 94,000 tons, a 76% decrease compared to the same period last year. The export of peanut kernels in June was 1000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative export was 78,000 tons, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year. The import of peanut oil in June was 39,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative import of peanut oil was 182,000 tons, a 33% increase compared to last year [27][29]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Peanut price: Charts show the historical prices of Shandong general peanut kernels, oil mill purchase prices, and the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts [10]. - Basis and spread: Charts show the historical trends of the 1 - 4 spread, 4 - 10 spread, and 10 - 1 spread of peanuts [39]. - Peanut imports and exports: Charts show the historical import and export volumes of peanut kernels and peanut oil, as well as the cumulative import volume and price of peanut oil [28][56]. - Pressing profit: Charts show the historical pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, and the price of Shandong peanut oil [18]. - Downstream data: Charts show the historical operating rate of pressing plants, peanut pressing volume, and peanut oil inventory of oil mills [51].

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: General Demand Performance, Weak Egg Price Trend [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Supply-side pressure is significant, and demand is general, leading to a decline in egg prices. The rebound of egg prices earlier led to the release of cold-storage eggs, which impacted prices. Although the September contract is a peak-season contract, the current spot price is falling, suggesting potential further decline in futures prices. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. Summary by Directory Part One: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.33 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.09 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.31 yuan per catty from last Friday. The terminal demand at the beginning of the week did not improve significantly, the number of newly opened production continued to increase, and the continuous high-temperature weather in the northern region put pressure on egg prices. After the egg price fell, market confidence was frustrated, and the inventory in the producing areas increased. The price of old hens fell this week as the breeding side's confidence in the future was frustrated, and the terminal demand was weak [5]. 2. Supply Analysis - The shipment volume in the producing areas decreased this week. According to Zhuochuang data, the number of egg-laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas nationwide in the week of July 25 was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week, and the average slaughter age of laying hens in the week of July 24 was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. In July, the inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was 1.356 billion, an increase of 16 million from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in July was 39.98 million, a month-on-month decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Without considering delayed slaughter and concentrated slaughter, the approximate inventory of laying hens in production from August to November 2025 is estimated to be 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [10]. 3. Cost Analysis - The feed cost changed little this week. As of August 7, the corn price was around 2,395 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal price fell to 3,008 yuan per ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2,579 yuan per ton, and the feed cost per catty of eggs was about 2.83 yuan per catty. The egg price fluctuated weakly this week, and the breeding profit decreased. As of August 7, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was -0.26 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.23 yuan per catty from the previous week, and the expected profit of laying hen breeding on August 1 was 13.94 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week [13]. 4. Demand Analysis - The egg price was weak this week. The terminal demand was weak in the first half of the week, and the market mainly cleared inventory. As the egg price hit a new low, there was a sentiment of bottom-fishing and stockpiling in the downstream market, slightly driving the market volume. The sales volume in the selling areas decreased month-on-month. As of August 7, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative selling areas was 7,529 tons, a decrease of 4.6% from last week. The inventory in the national egg market increased month-on-month. The number of newly opened laying hens increased significantly this week, and the supply of small-sized eggs increased, leading to a price decline. The demand decreased under the high-temperature and humid weather, and the inventory levels of all links increased. It is expected that the inventory in the breeding and circulation links will decrease next month. As of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.09 days, an increase of 0.08 days from last week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.23 days, an increase of 12 days from the previous week. The vegetable price index rebounded slightly this week, and the pork price index changed little [16]. 5. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [18]. - **Options**: Sell put options [17]. Part Two: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data tracking charts on inventory, chicken culling, cold-storage eggs, egg-laying hen breeding, price spreads, and basis, including historical data on the inventory of laying hens in production, the number of chicken culling, the price of laying hen chicks, and various price spreads and basis [22][23][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall cotton market shows a trend of slight strength in a volatile pattern. The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a similar trend. The main influencing factors include the supply - demand relationship, policy environment, and weather conditions [8][22][38][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no significant changes in the macro - environment and little change in the fundamentals, the growth progress of US cotton is slightly slow, but the excellent - good rate is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that the US cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of August 3, the budding rate of US cotton was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average. The excellent - good rate was 55%, 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. The main producing areas are hot and dry, but the drought degree is low [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week ending July 31, the net cancellation of US cotton contracts was 0.39 tons, a decrease of 1.28 tons compared to the previous week. The cumulative contract volume was 267.39 tons, a 2% year - on - year decrease. The shipment volume was 4.14 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons compared to the previous week. The cumulative shipment volume was 253.82 tons, a 1% year - on - year increase [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of August 1, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2512 contract decreased by 2,841 to 22,767, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 2,574 to 44,397, equivalent to 1.01 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers on ICE increased to 50,228, equivalent to 1.14 million tons, a decrease of 2,640 compared to the previous week, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous week [8]. - **India**: As of August 1, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.587 million hectares, 256,000 hectares lower than the same period last year. The cotton planting target is 12.95 million hectares, and it is difficult to achieve this target. From July 31 to August 6, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was 19mm, 45.5mm lower than the normal level and 51.9mm lower than the same period last year. The cumulative rainfall from June 1 to August 6 was 493.1mm, 22.4mm higher than the normal level. This week, the precipitation in India decreased significantly, mainly due to the decrease in precipitation in central India [8]. - **Brazil**: As of the week ending August 2, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 29.7%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the previous week, but 8% slower than the same period last year. The harvesting is slower than usual, mainly because the planting progress in Mato Grosso was affected by rain during the planting stage, resulting in a delay in harvesting. However, the cotton is reported to be in good growth condition, and it is expected that the quality of the cotton on the market will be good in the later stage. With the completion of corn and wheat harvesting, it is expected that the cotton supply on the market will accelerate [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Overall Situation**: The market's focus has gradually shifted to the demand side. The current commercial inventory on the supply side is still at a low level in the same period over the years, and the cotton supply may be slightly tight at the end of the year. On the demand side, as the off - season gradually transitions to the peak season, the current downstream demand shows no obvious changes. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern in the short term [22]. - **Supply Side**: As of mid - July, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 28,740 tons compared to the previous period, at a low level in the same period over the years. As of July 24, the cumulative sales volume of cotton in the 2024 season was 6.44 million tons, 1.026 million tons higher than the five - year average. As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.1571 million tons, a decrease of 148,500 tons (a decrease of 6.44%) compared to the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.4111 million tons, a decrease of 132,200 tons (a decrease of 8.57%) compared to the previous week, and the commercial cotton in the inland areas was 410,600 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons (an increase of 0.39%) compared to the previous week [22]. - **Demand Side**: Currently in the off - season of market consumption, as of mid - July, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises in China was 882,100 tons, a decrease of 20,900 tons compared to the previous period. The yarn inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 28.36 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 37.24 days. As of August 7, the operating load of spinning enterprises in the mainstream areas was 65.7%, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the previous week. The operating rate continued to decline. Although the cotton price decreased, the inland spinning enterprises still had no profit, and the situation of shutdown and reduction of shifts continued to increase. The profit of conventional yarn in Xinjiang was meager, and the operation was temporarily stable. The operating rate in the inland areas was 40 - 50%, and that in Xinjiang was maintained at 80 - 90% [22]. 3.3 Option Strategy - **Volatility Trend Judgment**: On August 8, 2025, the 10 - day historical volatility of cotton was 10.1107, and the volatility decreased compared to the previous day. - **Option Strategy Recommendation**: On August 8, 2025, the trading volume of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to sell put options [34][36]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton will show a slightly stronger trend in a volatile pattern in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a similar trend [40]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [40]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The report provides the historical data of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 - month price difference trend [43][44]. - **Mid - end Situation**: It includes the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, the yarn inventory days, and the grey fabric inventory days [47]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The report shows the historical data of cotton commercial inventory, industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [49]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: It includes the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, and the basis of US cotton [52].