Workflow
Yin He Qi Huo
icon
Search documents
工业硅周报:或还有一轮下跌,等待矛盾积累-20250622
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 11:43
工业硅周报:或还有一轮下跌,等待矛盾积累 研究员:陈寒松 期货从业证号:F03129697 投资咨询证号:Z0020351 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 5 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 11 | GALAXY FUTURES 2 工业硅综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 供需情况:DMC产量暂稳,出口和铝合金对工业硅的需求变化不大,6月多晶硅产量环比5月增加2000-3000吨。 综合来看,受有机硅和多晶硅拉动,6月工业硅需求环比5月或增加1-1.5万吨。供应方面,云南、四川部分企业开始逐 渐复产,龙头大厂本周开炉数增加,6月工业硅产量环比5月增加2-3万吨。 策略分析:近两周工业硅期货价格反弹,一方面是商品情绪普遍好转,焦煤价格反弹带动,另一方面是下游采购意 愿增加,仓单持续去化。总体而言,工业硅供需过剩的格局并未改变,近期纸面库存降低有下游采购增加的原因,更多 是部分现货被"锁住"失去流动性,进而导致现货价格和基差偏强。随着工业硅产量持续增加,现货市场流动性逐渐充 裕,现货价格可能进一步下跌,此外,倘 ...
需求转弱,镍价下行
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 11:28
需求转弱 镍价下行 研究员:陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号:F03107034 投资咨询资格证号:Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 镍交易逻辑及策略 需求端 宏观方面,关税前景多变,地缘冲突升级,市场避险情绪上升。美联储按兵不动,美元上涨。 6月逐步进入传统淡季,市场按需逢低采购,成交略有好转;不锈钢降价减产或将导致NPI减产;电动车去库影响三 元电池订单,拖累硫酸镍减产。 供应端 供应端 头部钢厂仍在国内生产,减产多为印尼和国内中小型钢厂,200系为主。 国内镍铁厂倒挂明显,维持低开工率。印尼低成本镍铁产量增加,利多矿价。 300系不锈钢累库压力较大,代理出货情况不理想。 精炼镍6月产量预计环比小幅下降,匹配需求淡季。净进口因进口亏损收窄有所上升。 镍矿价格坚挺,但下游接受度下降,上下游博弈,后市关注NPI减产情况,预计镍矿三季度见顶。 交易逻辑及策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 地缘冲突升级,市场避险情绪上升。美联储按兵不动,符合市场预期。精炼镍6月需求放缓,三元电池产量环比负增 长,中印不锈钢均有减产计划,合金电镀也进入淡季, ...
锌:供应放量态势不改,锌价依旧承压
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 11:27
锌:供应放量态势不改 锌价依旧承压 研究员:陈寒松 期货从业证号: F03129697 投资咨询证号: Z0020351 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 市场数据 第三章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 交易逻辑与策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◼ 产业供需: ➢ 矿端,6月预计国内北方矿山基本完成复产。国内锌精矿产量仍持续释放。6月进口锌精矿窗口关闭,但前期锁价的货物仍有流入。整体看,6月国内锌精矿供 应预计维持偏松,当前国产锌精矿加工费3600元/吨,进口锌精矿加工费45美元/吨。锌精矿加工费仍有上调趋势。 ➢ 冶炼端,6月国内进口矿的补充和国内矿山的产量释放,加工费继续上涨,冶炼厂原料充足下,生产积极性较高;6月精炼锌进口窗口关闭,但前期锁价的货物 仍有流入。预计6月国内精炼锌供应或有明显增加。 ➢ 消费方面,当前锌消费仍处淡季,但国内"以旧换新"政策的延续或对消费仍有一定提振。关注基建、汽车、家电等消费的情况。 ➢ 库存数据:截至6月19日, SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.96万吨,较6月12日增加0.25万吨,较6月16日增加0.15万吨。LME锌库存(6月20日)12 ...
铅周报:需求未见好转,铅价维持震荡-20250622
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 09:49
铅周报:需求未见好转 铅价维持震荡 研究员:陈寒松 期货从业证号: F03129697 投资咨询证号: Z0020351 目录 第一章 行情与逻辑 第二章 原料端 第三章 冶炼端 第四章 需求端 1.1 交易逻辑与策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 ◼ 产业供需: ➢ 供应端,本周国内原生铅冶炼厂开工仍维持高位,对铅精矿需求度较大。国产铅精矿加工费下调50元/金属吨至550元/金属吨,SMM进口铅精矿周度加工费下调10美元/干 吨至-55美元/干吨。近期含铅废料回收困难,废料价格小幅上涨。据SMM数据,截至本周五废电动车电池均价+0.49%至10225元/吨,废白壳均价+0.5%至10125元/吨, 废黑壳均价+0.24%至10450元/吨。 ➢ 冶炼端,本三省原生铅开工率较上周下滑0.79%至70%,河南、云南地区开工维持稳定,湖南地区某冶炼厂生产边际波动,开工小幅下滑。云南地区此前预期检修的冶炼厂将 于下周进入常规检修,本周生产仍维持稳定。三省样本外,华北地区此前定于6月常规检修的某冶炼厂电解铅常规检修如期进行,华东地区某冶炼厂生产小幅提产。本周再生 铅四省周度开工率为29.66%,较上周下滑2.41 ...
铁水产量高位,矿价底部存支撑
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 09:15
铁水产量高位,矿价底部存支撑 研究员:丁祖超 期货从业证号:F 0 3 1 0 5 9 1 7 投资咨询证号:Z0018259 目 录 第一部分:综合分析与交易策略 第二部分:铁矿核心逻辑分析 * [16] A. A. K. K. GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 逻辑分析:本周铁矿价格底部窄幅震荡,价格阶段性低位市场涨跌驱动因素较弱。基本面方面,供应端主流矿山发运平稳,环比进入季 节性发运高峰,上半年全球发运同比持平;5月初至今,非主流矿发运持续处于高位,但从月度级别来看,非澳巴发运量同比减量难以 看到较快扭转。需求端,本周铁水产量环比小幅增加,终端需求韧性延续,制造业用钢需求维持高增长。海外需求方面,上半年海外铁 元素消费量同比小幅增加。 整体来看,当前市场主要关注点在于淡季弱现实能否持续得到市场交易。去年5月底开始,黑色系价格开启下跌走势,且去年5月底黑 色系品种估值非常高,同时淡季宏观和基本面持续偏弱得到市场交易。但今年有两点不太一样的地方,一是当前是黑色估值较低;二是 近期的下跌黑色系呈现出小幅正套走势,去年同期呈现持续反套结构。这两点可能会是阶 ...
成本端扰动增多,合金低位震荡
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 09:15
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alloy market is experiencing low - level fluctuations due to increased disturbances on the cost side [1] - For ferrosilicon, the supply is expected to remain low, demand has short - term resilience, and energy cost increases have boosted sentiment, leading to short - term low - level fluctuations [4] - For silicomanganese, supply has a slight recovery, demand weakens moderately, and supply - side news disturbances cause low - level fluctuations [4] - The trading strategies include a low - level fluctuation outlook for single - side trading, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options on rallies for options trading [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Ferrosilicon**: After the previous alloy plant overhauls ended, production increased slightly. Given the current profit level, the resumption of production is expected to be limited, and overall supply will likely stay low. Downstream steel demand has entered the off - season, but the decline is not significant. Steel mill blast furnaces had a slight resumption this week, so demand has short - term resilience. Recently, coal prices stabilized, and international crude oil prices rose significantly, increasing energy costs. As an energy - intensive product, ferrosilicon sentiment was boosted, resulting in short - term low - level fluctuations [4] - **Silicomanganese**: Supply also increased slightly, with the absolute value remaining low. The demand for rebar has entered the off - season, and the weakening is mild according to micro - data. There were multiple news disturbances on the manganese ore supply side, but data shows the supply is currently normal. Due to the low valuation of manganese ore prices, sentiment is prone to repeated disturbances, causing silicomanganese to fluctuate at a low level [4] Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Low - level fluctuations [5] - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see [5] - **Options**: Sell call options on rallies [5] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: According to Mysteel data, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 242.18 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.57 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) was 20,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons. The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types (70% of the total demand) was 123,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [8] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in China was 32.69%, a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The weekly ferrosilicon output was 97,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,800 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises in China was 36.39%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09%. The weekly silicomanganese output (99% of the supply) was 176,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons [9] - **Inventory**: In the week of June 20, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in China was 68,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,900 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises in China (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) was 205,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [10] Spot Price - Basis - The content provides price and basis data for Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi from 2021 to 2025 [13] Double - Silicon Enterprise Production Situation - The content shows the weekly output and operating rate data of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises from 2021 to 2025 [17] Steel Mill Production Situation - The content presents data on the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, and social steel inventory of 247 steel mills from 2020 to 2025 [21] Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - On June 19, 2025, the production cost of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese was 5,605 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 125 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 56.5%. The production cost of Ningxia silicomanganese was 5,689 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 259 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 20.9%. Other regions also had corresponding cost, profit, and output share data [22] Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On June 19, 2025, the production cost of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon was 5,471 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 371 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 36.6%. The production cost of Ningxia ferrosilicon was 5,427 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 327 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 18.4%. Other regions also had corresponding cost, profit, and output share data [30] Cost of Carbon Elements and Electricity Price - The content provides price data for Fugu semi - coke small materials, Yulin steam coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 to 2025 [37][40] Hebei Representative Steel Mill Double - Silicon Steel Bidding Price - The content shows the monthly procurement prices of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B and silicomanganese 6517 from 2020 to 2025 [44] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Output - The content presents data on the cumulative and monthly output of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon from 2019 to 2025 [50][52][53] Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - The content shows data on the monthly net import of Chinese manganese ore and the monthly net export of Chinese ferrosilicon from 2012 to 2025 [57] Magnesium Metal Demand - The content provides price data for Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and cumulative production data for Shaanxi Yulin magnesium metal from 2013 to 2025 [58] Alloy Plant vs. Steel Mill Ferrosilicon Inventory - The content shows data on alloy plant ferrosilicon inventory, inventory by region, steel mill ferrosilicon inventory available days, and inventory available days by region from 2021 to 2025 [61] Alloy Plant, Steel Mill, and Port Manganese Ore Inventory - The content shows data on steel mill silicomanganese inventory available days, inventory available days by region, Tianjin Port manganese ore total inventory, and alloy plant silicomanganese inventory from 2021 to 2025 [64]
黑色金属早报-20250620
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 08:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium to long term; double - coking is expected to have wide - range oscillations; iron ore prices are expected to have support at the bottom; ferroalloys are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3][8][12][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: In May 2025, automobile production was 2.642 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; from January to May, automobile production was 12.757 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. In May, air - conditioner retail sales increased by 30.4% online and 27.1% offline. In July 2025, the production schedule of household air - conditioners was 14.31 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The spot prices of Shanghai and Tianjin hot - rolled coils and Shanghai threaded steel decreased by 10 yuan [3] - **Logical Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated strongly last night. This week, blast furnaces resumed production, and overall steel production increased. Hot - rolled apparent demand increased, while threaded - steel apparent demand decreased slightly. Steel is still destocking, but the destocking speed of threaded steel has slowed down. It is expected that apparent demand will continue to weaken with the arrival of the off - season. The funds of downstream construction sites have decreased, and steel export data has rebounded. Blast - furnace production has peaked, but profits are high, and some blast furnaces may resume production. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have improved, with a short - term small rebound. After entering the off - season, contradictions may accumulate, triggering a negative feedback [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, steel maintains a bottom - oscillating trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct a 10 - 01 reverse spread when the price is high; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [4][6] Double - Coking - **Related Information**: Tangshan steel mills plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on June 23. The average national profit per ton of coke is - 23 yuan/ton. The prices of coke and coking - coal warehouse receipts are provided [7] - **Logical Analysis**: Recently, some coal mines have reduced production, while others have resumed production. The price of coking coal in some mines has rebounded slightly, but the inventory pressure remains. This week, pig - iron production increased slightly, but steel mills still maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, and some steel mills have proposed a fourth - round price cut. The fundamentals of double - coking have slightly improved, and short - term disk games are intense. The Middle - East geopolitical situation may have an indirect impact on international coal prices, with a greater impact on sentiment than on substance. Short - term disturbances increase, and disk games intensify, with wide - range oscillations expected [8] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see mainly due to wide - range oscillations; for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading, it is recommended to wait and see [9] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On June 19, the national main - port iron - ore trading volume decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, and the trading volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 6.8% month - on - month. The spot prices of Qingdao Port PB powder, super - special powder, and card powder are provided [11] - **Logical Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated narrowly last night. The core factors driving the market are weak. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines are stable, and non - mainstream mines have rebounded rapidly. On the demand side, pig - iron production increased slightly this week, and terminal demand maintains resilience. The market is concerned about whether the weak off - season reality can be continuously traded. Compared with last year, the current black - metal valuation is low, and the recent decline shows a small positive - spread trend. It is expected that there will be support at the bottom of the ore price [12] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, there is support at the bottom; for arbitrage, a 9/1 inter - period positive spread is mainly recommended; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [13] Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: On the 19th, the price of Gabon blocks at Tianjin Port was about 36.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - carbonate was 32.8 - 33 yuan/ton - degree. The June silicon - manganese pricing of Hebei Iron and Steel Group is 5650 yuan/ton [15] - **Logical Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, on the 19th, the spot price in some regions increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, some factories in Qinghai have new overhauls, and this week's production is expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, the steel apparent - demand data is better than expected, driving the overall black - metal to stabilize and rebound, but the sustainability may be weak. Ferrosilicon is affected by energy - price fluctuations and oscillates at the bottom. For silicomanganese, on the 19th, manganese ore was stable, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The supply is also expected to decline slightly, and the demand rebound is not expected to be sustainable. The port manganese ore oscillates weakly at a low level. The steel - procurement price has increased, and there is some support, but the demand is limited, continuing to oscillate at the bottom [15][16] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it oscillates at the bottom; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell call options when the price is high [17]
钢材:高炉小幅复产,钢价支撑较强
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 08:50
钢材:高炉小幅复产,钢价支撑较强 研究员:戚纯怡 期货从业证号:F03113636 投资咨询证号:Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结: GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给:本周螺纹小样本产量212.18万吨(+4.61),热卷小样本产量325.45万吨(+0.8)。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均242.18万吨(+0.57),富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能3107.3元/吨。电炉端,华东平电电炉成本在3396(折盘 面)元/吨左右,电炉平电利润-303.18元/吨左右,谷电成本3231(折理记)元左右,华东三线螺纹谷电利润-138元 /吨。本周钢价维持震荡偏强,谷电亏损幅度仍大,短流程出现减产;长流程钢利润仍在100元以内,本周高炉小幅增 产;废钢日耗维持在52.76万吨附近,总体钢材供应偏高。 需求:Mysteel统计本周小样本螺纹表需2 ...
银河期货每日早盘观察-20250620
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 02:51
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 6 月 20 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究:陈界正 期货从业证号:F3045719 投资咨询证号:Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究: 刘倩楠 期货从业证号:F3013727 投资咨询证号:Z0014425 玉米花生:刘大勇 期货从业证号: F03107370 投资咨询证号:Z0018389 白糖油运:黄 莹 期货从业证号: F03111919 投资咨询证号:Z0018607 原木造纸:朱四祥 期货从业证号 F03127108 投资咨询号:Z0020124 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 市场休市 【相关资讯】 1.油世界:天气发展以及作物前景仍然是价格的重要影响因素。在加拿大的多数 地区,乌克兰,匈牙利,法国,意大利,俄罗斯的部分地区以及中国小麦和菜籽的种 植地区仍然比较干燥; 2.USDA 出口销售报告前瞻:截至 6 月 12 日当周,预计美国 2024/25 市场年度大 豆出口净销售介于 0-40 万吨,2025/26 市场年度大豆出口净销售为 0-20 万吨;预计 美国 2024/25 市场年度豆粕出口净销 ...
银河期货BR日报-20250620
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 01:04
BR 丁二烯橡胶相关:BR 主力 08 合约报收 11765 点,上涨+135 点或 +1.16%。截至前日 18 时,山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收 11700 元/吨,山东民营顺 丁报收 11600 元/吨,华东市场扬子石化顺丁报收 11600 元/吨,华南地区茂名石化 顺丁报收 11800 元/吨。山东地区抚顺石化丁苯 1502 报收 11900 元/吨。山东地区 丁二烯报收 9550-9600 元/吨。 RU/NR 天然橡胶相关:RU 主力 09 合约报收 14070 点,上涨+40 点或 +0.29%。截至前日 12 时,销地 WF 报收 13900-14000 元/吨,越南 3L 混合报收 14900-15000 元/吨。NR 主力 08 合约报收 12185 点,下跌-50 点或-0.41%;新加 坡 TF 主力 09 合约报收 163.4 点,下跌-1.1 点或-0.67%。截至前日 18 时,泰标 近港船货报收 1710-1750 美元/吨,泰混近港船货报收 1700-1750 美元/吨,人民 币混合胶现货报收 13850-13870 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 BR 日报 【银河期货】丁二烯橡胶每日 ...