Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recently, policy - side disturbances in the oil and fat market are significant, and the overall oils and fats are oscillating. The total inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats is gradually decreasing slightly, but the overall inventory is still sufficient. Malaysian palm oil has entered the production - reduction period, with slow de - stocking and high inventory likely to persist. Indonesia will continue the B40 policy this year, and the potential bullishness from B50 has temporarily disappeared. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de - stocking, and the inventory is not expected to be tight. Rapeseed supply in China is expected to increase, which may lead to a weakening oscillation of rapeseed oil. However, considering the time for rapeseed shipments to arrive after March and the expected release of the US biodiesel plan in March, there is some bullish driving force for soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and the decline space of near - month rapeseed oil contracts may be limited [5][31]. Summary by Directory International Market Malaysian Palm Oil - MPOB data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in December unexpectedly increased to 3.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. Production decreased by 5% to 1.83 million tons, and exports increased by 8.5% to 1.32 million tons. The market believes the negative impact has been digested, causing the price to rise. SPPOMA predicts that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of January decreased by 20.49% compared with the same period last month, and ITS predicts that exports increased by 29%. It is expected that the inventory in January will be around 2.92 million tons. Additionally, Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year, maintaining it at 40%, and will raise the CPO export levy from 10% to 12.5% from March 1 [8]. Indian Oils and Fats - SEA data indicates that India imported 1.38 million tons of edible oil in December, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons. Among them, soybean oil and sunflower oil imports were relatively large at 510,000 and 350,000 tons respectively, an increase of 140,000 and 200,000 tons, while palm oil imports were only 510,000 tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. Due to less palm oil imports, the inventory decreased to 460,000 tons, slightly lower than the 5 - year average. There are rumors of palm oil purchases this week [14]. US Bio - fuel - The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 bio - fuel blending ratio quota by early March 2026. The US EPA is considering setting the target at 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons in 2026, slightly lower than the previous proposal of 5.61 billion gallons. It is expected that the US EPA will abandon the plan to penalize imported renewable fuels and raw materials, which eases the concerns of oil refiners [18]. Domestic Market Palm Oil - As of January 9, 2026 (Week 2), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 736,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons, an increase of 0.30%. The import profit inversion has narrowed, currently around - 100. There are rumors of 4 - 6 near - month shipments this week. In the short term, the palm oil market lacks obvious drivers, and the high - inventory situation is expected to continue with slow de - stocking. It is recommended that short - position holders consider partial profit - taking [21]. Soybean Oil - As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,000 tons, a decrease of 0.73%. The inventory has reached an inflection point and is gradually de - stocking, but it will not be overly tight. Considering potential customs policy changes and the de - stocking expectation, the short - term performance is relatively good, but there are no prominent contradictions currently [26]. Rapeseed Oil - As of January 2, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 273,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,000 tons. The inventory is in a neutral position historically and is continuously decreasing. The spot market trading is light. It is expected that China will reduce the comprehensive tariff rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15% by March, and the trade between China and Canada may resume. Although rapeseed supply is expected to increase, the decline space of near - month rapeseed oil contracts is limited due to the time for rapeseed shipments to arrive after March and the expected release of the US biodiesel plan in March [29]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: In the short term, the overall oils and fats market may maintain an oscillating trend, with limited upside and downside. It is recommended to conduct high - selling and low - buying range operations. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see [33].

跟随调整后，底部支撑较强 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端样本企业开工率与产量双双下降，同时，为避免加收高额差别电价，陕西地区部分企业存在技术改造需求，未来 供应端仍有收缩预期。需求方面，本周钢联数据显示，钢材表需与产量双双增加，短期原料需求存在支撑。不过从高炉检修数据推 算，未来高炉复产节奏放缓，拖累远期需求。成本端方面，产区铁合金电价近期平稳运行，关注主产区电价政策动态。受有色金属 等商品龙头调整拖累，硅铁有所调整，但自身估值水平不高，且底部成本支撑较强。 锰硅方面，供应端 ...

股指期货周报：题材过热 市场降温 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 目录 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国务院总理李强1月16日主持召开国务院常务会议，听取提振消费专项行动进展情况汇报并研究加快培育服务消费 新增长点等促消费举措，部署做好清理拖欠企业账款行动和保障农民工工资支付有关工作，审议通过《国务院关于 修改和废止部分行政法规的决定（草案）》。 1月15日，中国证监会召开2026年系统工作会议。会议指出，坚持稳字当头，巩固市场稳中向好势头。及时做好 逆周期调节，强化交易监管和信息披露监管，严肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规行为，坚决防止市场大起 大落。 据国家税务总局有关部门消息，税务机关持续加强对居民个人境外所得纳税的宣传辅导，去年以来提醒纳税人对 2022年至2024年从境外取得的收入进行自查。 中国证监会在总结实践经验的基础上，起草形成了《衍生品交易监督管理办法（试行）（征求意见稿）》，征求意 见稿指出，证监会遵循审慎监管原则，健全衍生品市场监测监控制度，可以对衍生品交易实施逆周期调节管理。 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 周度核心要点及 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Short - term Fluctuations Intensify, Long - term Bullish Trend Remains Unchanged [1] Report Author - Researcher: Wang Wei. Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03143400. Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0022141 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core View - Short - term bullish sentiment has weakened, and the market fluctuates greatly under the influence of funds and sentiment. However, the main bullish logic has not changed, and the long - term upward trend continues. It is recommended to control positions and protect long positions [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Macro Aspect - US CPI was lower than market expectations, which initially increased market expectations for Fed rate cuts. But Powell's criminal investigation raised concerns about the Fed's independence and hawkish stance. The short - term is hawkish, but the Fed's loose monetary policy will not change [7] Copper Ore - The negotiation of the Mantoverde copper mine incident in Chile was fruitless, and the strike will continue. The 2025 output of Mantoverde is 74,000 tons. Chinese smelters finalized the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark with Antofagasta at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound. The long - term negotiation is difficult and the progress is slow [7] Scrap Copper - Enterprises are being inspected for the compliance of "reverse invoicing". After New Year's Day, many enterprises need to red - offset some non - compliant amounts. Since Wednesday, new raw material orders of enterprises are mainly invoiced [7] Refined Copper - In December 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper output was 1.1781 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons (6.8%) and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative output from January to December was 13.4326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.372 million tons (11.38%). SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in January 2026 to be 1.1636 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,500 tons (1.23%) and a year - on - year increase of 156,300 tons (14.78%) [7] Consumption - After the price slightly回调 in the second half of the week, the market's rigid demand procurement increased. Although Nvidia adjusted the data on copper demand in data centers, it has little impact on AI copper consumption. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period's 4 - trillion - yuan fixed - asset investment of the State Grid Corporation provides demand support [7] Spread and Ratio - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic spread will remain in the C structure. After domestic export goods flow into the LME market, the LME's short - term squeeze risk decreases. It is expected that the ratio will deteriorate later, and the domestic export window will remain open [7] 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Price Trends - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper futures and LME copper futures in 2023 - 2026, and the price changes under different events such as processing fee decline, tariff investigations, and production plan adjustments [9] 3.3 Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking Copper Spot Market - As of January 15, 2026, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 47,100 tons (17.2%) to 320,900 tons compared with last Thursday, and the total inventory increased by 212,800 tons year - on - year. The domestic bonded - area copper inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 80,000 tons. The LME inventory increased to 144,000 tons [7][16] Copper Concentrate Market - On January 16, 2026, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was reported at - $46.53/ton, a decrease of $1.12/ton from the previous period. The port inventory increased to 690,400 physical tons, an increase of 50,000 physical tons from the previous period. In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, and from January to December, the cumulative import was 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [32] Scrap Copper Market - As of this Friday, the scrap - refined copper price difference is 3,391 yuan/ton. This week, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 13.52%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 9.01 percentage points year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 902,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.18%. In November 2025, China imported 208,100 tons of scrap copper, a year - on - year increase of 19.99%, and from January to November, the cumulative import was 2.1036 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.63% [44] Blister Copper Market - On January 16, 2026, the average domestic southern blister copper processing fee was 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. In October 2025, the blister copper output was 1.0367 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.62%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 10.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.02%. In November 2025, China imported 58,300 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.47%. From January to November, the cumulative import of anode copper was 692,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.13% [50] Domestic Copper Supply - In December 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper output was 1.1781 million tons. SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in January 2026 to be 1.1636 million tons. From January to November 2025, China's refined copper imports totaled 3.0948 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.12%, and exports totaled 692,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57.68% [56] Copper Products Operating Rate - On January 15, 2026, the copper rod operating rate increased by 9.65 percentage points to 57.47%, far lower than the 70.46% of the same period last year. The operating rate of recycled copper rods declined again after a rebound. The weekly operating rate of wire and cable decreased by 0.59 percentage points to 55.99%, a decrease of 4.95 percentage points compared with the same period last year [62] Downstream Operating Rate - In December 2025, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 61.33%. It is expected to be 65.01% in January 2026. The comprehensive operating rate of the enameled wire industry in December was 66.28%, and it is expected to be 66.84% in January. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises in December was 68.89%, and it is expected to rise to 70.77% in January [76] Air - conditioner Consumption - In November 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 1.0577 million units, a year - on - year decline of 36.7%. The production schedule of household air - conditioners in January 2026 is 1.851 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11% [81] Automobile Consumption - In December 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million units respectively. In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 16.626 million and 16.49 million units respectively. It is predicted that the total automobile sales in 2026 will be 34.75 million units, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 19 million units [83] Grid Investment - From January to November 2025, China's grid investment completion was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period's 4 - trillion - yuan fixed - asset investment of the State Grid Corporation provides demand support [86] Real Estate Market - From January to November 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 787 million square meters, a year - on - year decline of 7.8%. The national housing completion area was 394 million square meters, a year - on - year decline of 18% [93] Overseas Data - In November 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales were 2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 8.53%. From January to November 2025, the new energy vehicle sales in the US were 1.4681 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.71% [108] Photovoltaic and Wind Power - From January to November 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 274.98GW, a year - on - year increase of 68.59GW (33.24%). The new wind power installed capacity from January to November 2025 was 82.5GW, a year - on - year increase of 30.75GW (59.42%) [102] 3.4 Industry News and Macro Data - The US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, less than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The Trump administration ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities. The Mantoverde copper mine strike will continue. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell. The Congolese state - owned mining company will directly purchase 100,000 tons of copper from the TFM copper - cobalt mine in 2026. Codelco expects its 2026 copper output to reach 1.344 million tons [109]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR - RU spread is the best tool to reflect the supply difference in the rubber sector, offsetting most macro and consumption disturbances and highlighting the supply differences between synthetic and natural rubber [58]. - The ENSO index suggests that in the first half of 2026, natural rubber supply is likely to increase, putting downward pressure on RU. The fixed - asset investment in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry indicates limited production pressure, and BR is expected to stabilize [58]. - As of the end of 2025, the absolute spread of BR - RU has reached a stage low. Before the third quarter of 2026, a strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber is recommended [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rubber Comprehensive Analysis - **Spot Prices**: The price center of RMB - denominated rubber has generally risen. The price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 115 yuan to 15,750 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase. The price of Shandong STR20 mixed rubber rose by 166.5 yuan to 15,069 yuan/ton, a 1.12% increase. The price of North China BR9000 first rose rapidly and then fell, closing at 11,500 yuan/ton on Thursday, down 100 yuan from last Thursday, but the weekly average price of 11,510 yuan was still 230 yuan higher, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to around 17% [2]. - **Supply**: For natural rubber, domestic production areas have fully stopped tapping. Overseas, the tapping season in northern Thailand and Vietnam is coming to an end, and only southern Thailand is in the peak production stage, showing a pattern of "decreasing supply at home and increasing supply abroad". For cis - polybutadiene rubber, the average operating rate of domestic high - cis cis - polybutadiene plants was 75.9%, the same as last week. The overall output was stable [2]. - **Demand**: After the festival, the operating rate of tire factories increased, and rigid demand procurement rose. However, the rising price center suppressed buying sentiment, and there was only limited replenishment on dips during the week, with limited real - deal follow - up [3]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.96 million tons to 563,900 tons, a 3.6% increase. The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber in production enterprises decreased by 3.24% month - on - month, but the social inventory increased slightly. The overall inventory level was still lower than the same period last year [3]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Single - sided Trading**: Hold short positions in the RU main 05 contract, with the stop - loss price lowered to the recent high of 16,115 points. Try short positions in the NR main 03 contract at an appropriate time, with a stop - loss set at the recent high of 12,970 points. Try a small number of short positions in the BR main 03 contract, with a stop - loss set at the previous low of 11,945 points [4]. - **Arbitrage**: The spread of BR2603 - NR2603 (2 lots vs. 1 lot) closed at - 850 points. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to the support at the recent low of - 945 points [4]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber Supply - **Apparent Consumption**: In November 2025, the apparent consumption of butadiene increased to 556,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.4%. The apparent consumption of cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased to 131,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The net import volume of butadiene and cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased year - on - year, which was slightly positive for the BR - RU spread [14][16]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber increased to 34,900 tons, a 5.50% month - on - month increase. Due to strong downstream resistance to high - price raw materials, the inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises increased to varying degrees [18]. - **Supply Scale and Cost Support**: In December 2025, the apparent consumption of BR&BR (calculated) increased to 3.28 million tons. In January, the explicit inventory of BD&BR increased for five consecutive months to 47,000 tons. The combined figure of the above two items was 375,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%, which was positive for the BR - RU spread. In January, the price of Brent crude oil fell for four consecutive months to $60.8 per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 25.4%, which was negative for the BR - RU spread [27]. - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: The profit of the C4 extraction process was 2,376 yuan/ton, an increase of 234 yuan/ton from the previous period. The profit of the oxidative dehydrogenation process was 681 yuan/ton, an increase of 595 yuan/ton from the previous period. The theoretical production cost of cis - polybutadiene rubber increased significantly, and the production profit decreased [37]. - **Processing Margin**: In January, the margin of domestic butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation plants improved for two consecutive months to - 50 yuan/ton, and the margin of domestic butadiene C4 extraction method increased for two consecutive months to 1,877 yuan/ton. The domestic production margin of cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased for two consecutive months to 211 yuan/ton. The BD margin - BR margin was reported at + 0.17 million yuan/ton, a year - on - year decline of - 0.37 million yuan/ton, which was negative for the BR - RU spread [41][45]. - **Margin Variance and Import Margin**: In January, the FOB price of butadiene in South Korea and the CFR price in China both increased for two consecutive months. The margin of BD to South Korea was reported at - 35.0 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of + 7.5 US dollars/ton, which was positive for the BR - RU spread. The variance of the three margins was reported at 7.3×10^5, a year - on - year decline of - 188.2%, which was negative for the BR - RU spread [52]. 3.4 Rubber Supply: Synthetic Rubber Production vs. Natural Rubber Climate - Although the valuation of the chemical industry has been under pressure due to oversupply during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the BR - RU spread can reflect the supply difference in the rubber sector. The ENSO index is favorable for the increase of natural rubber supply in the first half of 2026, and the fixed - asset investment in the chemical industry indicates limited production pressure on synthetic rubber. Before the third quarter of 2026, a strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber is recommended [58]. 3.5 Natural Rubber Supply: ANRPC Member Countries' Production and Export - In October, the total production of natural rubber in the ANRPC increased to 1.144 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% with a narrowing growth rate. The total export volume increased to 826,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% with a narrowing growth rate for four consecutive months [64]. 3.6 Micro - consumption - The average year - on - year production increase of automobiles in China and South Korea was 7.7%, which was positive for the single - sided trading of BR. In November, the export value of domestic tires increased to 1.82 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, which was negative for the single - sided trading of BR [65][70]. 3.7 Micro - consumption: Tires - The semi - steel tire market was weak, with sufficient supply and mainly rigid - demand replenishment in the channel. The all - steel tire market continued to be weak, with low purchasing willingness among merchants. As of January 15, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 47.92 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.56 days and a year - on - year increase of 5.49 days. The average inventory turnover days of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 46.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 days and a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 days [77]. 3.8 Macro - consumption - In a series of data affecting the downstream consumption of the rubber sector, the data farther away from rubber had larger increases, while the data closer to rubber had not yet stabilized. For example, the CSI 1000 index declined for two consecutive months but still had a year - on - year increase, the global auto industry index rebounded for two consecutive months with a narrowing growth rate, the domestic rubber and plastic industry electricity consumption declined with a narrowing growth rate, and the cumulative production of domestic and foreign tires increased year - on - year with a marginal increase for two consecutive months [86].

电解铝 ：商品情绪转弱 铝市场中期仍看好 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 ◼ 衍生品：暂时观望。 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 宏观：美联储降息预期、地缘政治风险叠加去美元化预期推动资金青睐实物资产有色金属，去年四季度以来资金持续流入推动铝价随板块 上涨，同时关注伊朗地区地缘政治风险。但近日市场风险偏好有所变化，前期强势上涨品种的市场氛围降温带动沪铝资金流出。商品市场 情绪转弱，引发多品种回调。 ◼ 产业供应：供给端刚性预期明显，安哥拉新项目如期投产，越南电解铝项目投产预期从二季度推迟至7月初；欧洲部分产能寻求复产但仍 处于前期规划阶段、所处国家寻求欧盟补贴以应对高昂的电力成本。负基差较大带动短期铸锭增加、铝棒加工费短期转负，后续持续关注 铝水就地转化率。 ◼ 产业需求：表观需求短期有所 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market has entered a volatile period. The Shanghai Composite Index once soared to 4190 points last Tuesday, but then fluctuated due to the increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading. Market enthusiasm declined, and funds shifted from theme stocks to stable - growth technology stocks. The net outflow of funds from equity ETFs suppressed the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices, and the index performance was differentiated [19]. - The bond market sentiment has recovered, but there are still unfavorable factors. Although the central bank maintains a loose monetary policy tone and there is room for increasing total - volume policies, the probability of short - term policy rate cuts is not high, and there are more disturbances in the capital market next week. The downward momentum of long - term bond yields is also insufficient [22][23]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply pressure of protein meal increases, and the overall disk is under pressure. The sugar price shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic due to the large increase in sugar imports in December. The vegetable oil market may continue to fluctuate due to the possible resumption of Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade [27][30][34]. - In the black metal market, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. The driving force for coking coal and coke is not obvious, and they will continue to fluctuate. Iron ore prices are treated with a bearish attitude at high levels, and ferroalloys have strong bottom support after adjustment [58][62][66]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals such as gold and silver are affected by multiple factors and have large fluctuations. Platinum and palladium are in high - level oscillations. Copper has a short - term increase in fluctuations but maintains a long - term upward trend. Alumina runs weakly, and aluminum prices decline due to the cooling of market sentiment [73][76][78]. - In the shipping market, the spot freight rate shows an inflection point, and there are differences in the market's view on the strength of the pre - Spring Festival rush. The large - scale resumption of shipping on the European line is still difficult in the first half of the year [110][112]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices may be under pressure due to the fading of geopolitical premiums. Asphalt supply and demand are weakly operating, and fuel oil has large fluctuations due to geopolitical risks [115][118][120]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Core View**: The market is in a volatile period, with funds shifting from theme stocks to technology stocks. The futures basis has changed, and the net short position has increased [19][20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility, grid operation for single - side trading; IM\IC long 2606 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; double - selling strategy for options [20]. Treasury Futures - **Core View**: The bond market sentiment has recovered, but the short - term policy rate cut probability is not high, and the long - term yield downward momentum is insufficient [22][23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for single - side trading; short the basis of the 30Y active bond for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Core View**: The supply pressure increases, and the domestic cost side is under pressure. Although the spot has some support in the short term, the overall disk pressure still exists in the long term [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: A bearish mindset for single - side trading; expand the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell the wide - straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - **Core View**: The sugar price shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic due to the large increase in imports in December. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, and the domestic sugar price will maintain a volatile trend [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider low - buying and high - selling in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options for options [31]. Vegetable Oil - **Core View**: The possible resumption of Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade may increase the supply, and the vegetable oil market will continue to fluctuate [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - selling and low - buying in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Black Metals Steel - **Core View**: The demand has support, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment may affect the price [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: The steel price may be under pressure in a volatile manner for single - side trading; short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short coil - rebar spread for arbitrage; wait and see for options [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Core View**: The driving force is not obvious, and they will continue to fluctuate. The spot price increase is difficult to sustain [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate and operate for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [63]. Iron Ore - **Core View**: The market expectation is repeated, and the iron ore price is treated with a bearish attitude at high levels due to the weakening of the domestic fundamentals [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Lightly short at high levels for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [66]. Ferroalloys - **Core View**: After adjustment, the bottom support is strong. Although affected by the overall market adjustment, the alloy valuation is not high, and the cost support is firm [67][68]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider as a long - position allocation when the price is low for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options when the price is high for options [70]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Core View**: Affected by multiple factors such as macro, policy, and emotion, the price fluctuates greatly. Silver may maintain a high - level and high - volatility pattern, and gold is relatively more stable [73][74]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a low - buying strategy for Shanghai gold; protect profits for Shanghai silver. Use the bull call spread strategy for options [74]. Platinum and Palladium - **Core View**: The tariff expectation has failed, and they are in high - level oscillations. Platinum has stronger upward driving force than palladium [75][76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long platinum at low levels; wait and see for palladium; wait and see for arbitrage and options [77]. Copper - **Core View**: Short - term fluctuations increase, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. The domestic market has entered the inventory accumulation period, and the LME inventory will increase [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to profit protection in the short term and control positions; wait and see for arbitrage and options [78]. Alumina - **Core View**: It runs weakly. The increase in warehouse receipts and the downward trend of cost drag the price [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core View**: The market sentiment cools down, and the aluminum price回调. There are uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs [85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be vigilant against the callback risk in the short term and be optimistic in the medium term for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [85][86]. Shipping Container Shipping - **Core View**: The spot freight rate shows an inflection point, and there are differences in the market's view on the strength of the rush. The large - scale resumption of shipping on the European line is difficult in the first half of the year [110][112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; go long 6 - 10 contracts for cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price is low [113]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Core View**: The geopolitical premium fades, and the oil price may be under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate widely [115]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate widely for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [116]. Asphalt - **Core View**: The supply and demand are weakly operating, and the price is in high - level oscillations due to the large fluctuation of crude oil cost [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillations for single - side trading; pay attention to the BU4 - 6 cash - and - carry arbitrage; wait and see for options [119]. Fuel Oil - **Core View**: The geopolitical risk fluctuates greatly, and the single - side fluctuation of fuel oil increases. The high - sulfur fundamentals are expected to be weakly stable in the first quarter [120]. - **Trading Strategy**: Strong oscillations, be vigilant against geopolitical risks for single - side trading; pay attention to the FU59 cash - and - carry arbitrage; wait and see for options [121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile trend before the Spring Festival, but prices may fluctuate due to market sentiment. It is recommended to continue monitoring the impact of macro - news on the market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. - For trading strategies, it is suggested that the single - side position maintain a volatile trend, for arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio between hot - rolled coil and coking coal, and for options, it is advisable to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the output of small - sample rebar decreased by 0.74 million tons to 190.30 million tons, while the output of small - sample hot - rolled coil increased by 2.85 million tons to 308.36 million tons. The average daily molten iron output of 247 blast furnaces decreased by 1.49 million tons to 228.01 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 1.2 percentage points to 36%. With the increase in scrap steel prices, the cost of electric arc furnaces has continuously increased, leading to a decline in profits. Although molten iron production decreased this week, the capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnaces increased, and scrap steel consumption was 51.29 million tons per day. It is expected that there may be further production cuts in the future. Long - process steel mills maintained profitability, and molten iron production continued to increase this week [4]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar increased by 14.44 million tons to 190.34 million tons, and that for small - sample hot - rolled coil increased by 5.55 million tons to 314.16 million tons. With the temperature rising and the improvement of downstream funds, the demand for hot - rolled coil was good due to pre - holiday inventory replenishment in the manufacturing industry, and the export situation in January remained strong. From January to November, the growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment continued to decline month - on - month, and the increment of domestic project investment was insufficient. In November, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, new construction, and completion area narrowed but still maintained a negative growth of about 20 - 30%, indicating weak real - estate data and insufficient willingness of residents to buy houses. In December, the official manufacturing PMI and S&P Global manufacturing PMI were both 50.1%, with new orders, exports, and production data strengthening. In November, China's automobile production increased by 12.7% year - on - year, and exports increased by 49.17% year - on - year. In December, the production schedule of three major white - goods decreased by 14.1% year - on - year, but the decline narrowed, and overseas exports still had rigid support. The US manufacturing PMI declined in November, and the initial jobless claims in the US were at a relatively low level, suppressing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in January and putting pressure on gold prices. The eurozone manufacturing PMI further declined in December [4]. - **Inventory**: For rebar, the factory inventory decreased by 5.27 million tons, the social inventory increased by 5.23 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 0.04 million tons. For hot - rolled coil, the factory inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 5.80 million tons. The total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.91 million tons [4]. - **Outlook**: The output of five major steel products increased slightly this week. Affected by steel mill maintenance, molten iron production declined, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil production increasing. The total steel inventory decreased. The social inventory of rebar accumulated while the factory inventory decreased, indicating that steel mills increased production cuts, but social demand further declined. The hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline, and with the resumption of production, the factory inventory decreased more slowly than the social inventory. The funds of downstream construction sites improved this week. Near the end of the year, the payment collection situation of housing construction projects was slightly better than that of non - housing construction projects, but infrastructure projects were worse than last year. The warming weather led to the recovery of rebar apparent demand. Before the Spring Festival, the manufacturing industry had inventory replenishment demand, and the steel export situation in January was still strong, supporting the demand for hot - rolled coil. The production drive of coal mines was insufficient before the Spring Festival, the inventory of raw - material coal mines decreased, the structural shortage of PB powder had not been resolved, and the first quarter was also the traditional off - season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills had a rigid demand for inventory replenishment, and costs were supported. The continuous resumption of molten iron production also limited the further rise of steel prices [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3290 yuan (unchanged), and in Beijing, it was 3180 yuan (+20 yuan). The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3310 yuan (+40 yuan), and that of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3200 yuan (+10 yuan) [13]. - **Profit Situation**: The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric arc furnace was - 100.36 yuan (- 70.5 yuan), and the valley - rate electricity profit was 65 yuan (- 71 yuan) [31]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - As of the week of January 9, the initial jobless claims in the US reached 198,000, lower than the expected 215,000 and the previous value of 207,000. The unemployment data was at a relatively low level in the same period of history [33]. - On January 15, the People's Bank of China announced that it would lower the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing purchase loans to 30% and cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [33]. - In December 2025, China's steel exports were 1.1301 billion tons, an increase of 132.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. From January to December, the cumulative steel exports were 11.9019 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China's steel imports were 51.7 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. From January to December, the cumulative steel imports were 605.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [33]. - In December 2025, China exported 994,000 automobiles. From January to December, the cumulative automobile exports were 8.324 million, a year - on - year increase of 30.0%. In December 2025, China exported 370.11 million household appliances. From January to December, the cumulative household appliance exports were 4.452947 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. In December 2025, China exported 536 ships. From January to December, the cumulative ship exports were 6,690, a year - on - year increase of 16.2% [33]. - In December, the new social financing was 220.75 billion yuan, the previous value was 248.88 billion yuan, and the year - on - year decrease was 22.64%. Both year - on - year and month - on - month decreased. The new RMB loans were 91 billion yuan, and the previous value was 39 billion yuan. The household loans were - 9.16 billion yuan, and the corporate loans were 107 billion yuan. Government bonds and corporate bond financing provided strong support. The short - term financing demand of enterprises continued to recover, but the medium - and long - term investment demand was insufficient. The consumer and housing credit willingness of residents still needed to be boosted [38]. - From January to November 2025, China's fixed - asset investment completion amount was - 2.60% year - on - year, the previous value was - 1.7%, and the growth rate continued to decline rapidly month - on - month. Among them, the cumulative investment in real - estate development was - 15.9% year - on - year, the cumulative investment in manufacturing was + 1.9%, the cumulative investment in infrastructure construction was + 0.13% year - on - year, and the cumulative investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was - 1.1% year - on - year. The growth rates of the three types of investment continued to shrink significantly month - on - month. The real - estate sector lacked financial support and remained a drag on domestic demand. The issuance of government bonds slowed down compared with the same period last year, which affected infrastructure investment to some extent. Corporate loans were low, and the investment growth rate in the manufacturing industry continued to shrink due to insufficient industrial prosperity [38]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.2801 million tons (- 1.49 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 36% (+ 1.2 percentage points). The output of small - sample rebar was 1.903 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.74 million tons, and the output of small - sample hot - rolled coil was 3.0836 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85 million tons [57][61]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 1.9034 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 62.8% in the lunar calendar), a month - on - month increase of 14.44 million tons, and the apparent demand for small - sample hot - rolled coil was 3.1416 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.77% in the lunar calendar), a month - on - month increase of 5.55 million tons [64]. - **Inventory**: For rebar, the factory inventory decreased by 5.27 million tons, the social inventory increased by 5.23 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 0.04 million tons. For hot - rolled coil, the factory inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 5.80 million tons. The total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.91 million tons [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal mine operating rate is stable, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 73% and the Yulin area at 50% as of January 15th. Coal production has recovered, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 4.2 million tons. The pithead price has stopped falling and rebounded slightly [4]. - The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 320 - 350 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains high and stable. Domestic supply is continuously abundant. The US dollar price has risen slightly. Most Iranian plants have shut down due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian operating rates have declined, and the overall foreign operating rate is at a low level. The import volume in January is expected to be around 1.2 billion tons [4]. - The operating rate of MTO plants has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while some are under - loaded or shut down. Port inventories are continuously decreasing, and inland enterprise inventories are fluctuating slightly [4]. - The international plant operating rate continues to decline, and gas restrictions in Iran have expanded. The daily output in Iran has dropped to around 6,000 tons. The spot liquidity at ports is sufficient, but the overall trading is light. The import volume in February is expected to be around 800,000 tons [4]. - Coal prices have basically stopped rising, coal - to - methanol profits are stable, inland operating rates are high, market circulation is abundant, and factory prices have fallen weakly. The operating rate of inland MTO is stable, and the domestic MTO shutdown expectation is strong. The Middle East situation is unstable, which provides strong support for methanol [4]. - Trading strategies include gradually building long positions in 05 contracts on dips for unilateral trading, paying attention to positive spreads for arbitrage, and selling put options in the over - the - counter market [4] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply and demand analysis**: Coal mine operating rates are stable, coal - to - methanol profits are good, domestic methanol supply is abundant, and foreign supply is affected by Iranian gas restrictions. MTO plant operating rates have rebounded, and port inventories are decreasing [4] - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral trading: gradually build long positions in 05 contracts on dips; Arbitrage: pay attention to positive spreads; Over - the - counter: sell put options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking 2. Core Data Weekly Changes - **Supply - Domestic**: As of January 15th, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 77.63%, up 0.99 percentage points from last week and 3.48 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load as of December 18th was 70.22%, up 1.35 percentage points from last week [5] - **Supply - International**: From January 10th to 16th, 2026, the international methanol (excluding China) output was 866,709 tons, a decrease of 1,190 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 59.41%, down 0.08% from last week [5] - **Supply - Import**: From January 8th to 14th, 2026, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 240,400 tons [5] - **Demand - MTO**: As of January 15th, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 53.84%, down 13.22 percentage points from last week. The national olefin plant operating rate was 86.93% [5] - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 2.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.78%. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 76.99%. The formaldehyde operating rate was 34.07% [5] - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the Northwest region was 46,400 tons, a decrease of 47,800 tons from the previous statistical day, a month - on - month decrease of 50.74% [5] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise order backlog was 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13% [5] - **Inventory - Port**: As of January 14th, 2026, the total methanol port inventory was 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous period [5] - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi it was 380 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference was 370 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 110 yuan/ton. MTO losses narrowed, and the basis was stable [5] 2. Spot Prices - The price in Taicang was 2,210 yuan/ton (-40), and the price in the northern line was 1,820 yuan/ton (-20) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the methanol market is complex, with high - level stable domestic supply, low - level external market operation, and strong expectations of domestic MTO shutdown. However, the unstable situation in the Middle East provides relatively strong support for methanol [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The futures market declined, closing at 2239 (- 45/-1.97%). In the spot market, production areas had different quotes: Inner Mongolia南线 was 1870 yuan/ton,北线 was 1820 yuan/ton, etc.; consumption areas also had various prices: Lunan was 2160 yuan/ton, etc.; and ports like Taicang were 2240 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - In the current cycle (20260110 - 20260116), the international methanol (excluding China) output was 866,709 tons, a decrease of 1190 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 59.41%, a decline of 0.08% from last week [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply side: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 320 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate was stable at a high level, resulting in continuous abundant domestic supply. Import side: The US dollar price rose slightly, most Iranian devices stopped due to gas restrictions, non - Iranian start - up was stable, the overall external start - up was at a low level, the European and American markets were stable, the internal - external price difference narrowed slightly, the Southeast Asian re - export window closed, 235,000 tons of Iranian goods were loaded in January, non - Iranian supplies decreased, and the expected import volume in February was about 800,000 tons. Demand side: MTO losses continued to expand, raw material inventories were full, and rigid demand reduced purchases. Some MTO devices had different operating conditions. Inventory side: Import arrivals decreased slightly, the port inventory accumulation cycle ended, the basis was strong; and the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly. Overall, the international device start - up rate continued to decline, the Iranian gas restriction expanded, the port spot liquidity was sufficient, the overall transaction was light, and the domestic supply was abundant. The inland MTO start - up was stable, the CTO external procurement ended, and the inland large - scale device had a fault. The Middle East was relatively stable, but the situation was becoming unstable, providing support for methanol [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long at low levels (pay attention to the Middle East situation). - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell call options [5][6]