Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: "Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: July 1, 2025 [2] 2. IM (CSI 1000 Index Futures) 2.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 6,373.77, up 0.28%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 181,858 lots, an increase of 9,846 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 327,974 lots, an increase of 10,329 lots from the previous day [4][5]. - The main contract of IM (IM2509) fell 0.36% to close at 6,133.4 points. The main contract was at a discount of 240.37 points, a decrease of 32.79 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -17.66% [4][5]. 2.2 Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 1000 | 6,373.77 | 0.28% | 24,354 | 3% | 3,343 | -1% | - | - | - | | IM2507 | 6,286.80 | -0.04% | 52,561 | -1% | 659 | -1% | 84,569 | 1,694 | 128 | | IM2508 | 6,210.40 | -0.22% | 5,612 | 33% | 70 | 33% | 8,638 | 1,368 | 13 | | IM2509 | 6,133.40 | -0.36% | 103,226 | 9% | 1,263 | 9% | 164,955 | 6,227 | 243 | | IM2512 | 5,951.40 | -0.47% | 20,459 | 2% | 243 | 1% | 69,812 | 1,040 | 100 | [4] 2.3 Dividend Impact and Basis Information - The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 13.64 points, 16.17 points, 18.13 points, and 18.91 points respectively [5]. 2.4 Main Seats' Information - The information of the top five, ten, and twenty seats in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions for each contract (IM2507, IM2508, IM2509, IM2512) is detailed in the report, showing changes compared to the previous day [18][20][22] 3. IF (CSI 300 Index Futures) 3.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 3,942.76, up 0.17%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 70,001 lots, a decrease of 8,991 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 238,772 lots, a decrease of 5,835 lots from the previous day [23][26]. - The main contract of IF (IF2509) fell 0.03% to close at 3,886 points. The main contract was at a discount of 56.76 points, a decrease of 6.48 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -6.58% [23][26]. 3.2 Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 3,942.76 | 0.17% | 12,896 | -11% | 2,361 | -18% | - | - | - | | IF2507 | 3,911.60 | 0.10% | 28,002 | -9% | 328 | -9% | 60,998 | -4,473 | 86 | | IF2508 | 3,895.00 | 0.01% | 1,906 | -6% | 22 | -6% | 4,228 | 546 | 6 | | IF2509 | 3,886.00 | -0.03% | 34,558 | -14% | 403 | -14% | 132,977 | -2,451 | 186 | | IF2512 | 3,850.20 | -0.17% | 5,535 | -8% | 64 | -9% | 40,569 | 543 | 56 | [23] 3.3 Dividend Impact and Basis Information - The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 22.14 points, 28.03 points, 30.97 points, and 30.97 points respectively [32]. 3.4 Main Seats' Information - The information of the top five, ten, and twenty seats in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions for each contract (IF2507, IF2508, IF2509, IF2512) is detailed in the report, showing changes compared to the previous day [36][37][39] 4. IC (CSI 500 Index Futures) 4.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 5,934.67, up 0.33%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 68,686 lots, a decrease of 2,617 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 220,821 lots, a decrease of 540 lots from the previous day [41][42]. - The main contract of IC (IC2509) fell 0.19% to close at 5,764.6 points. The main contract was at a discount of 170.07 points, a decrease of 23.48 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -13.29% [41][42]. 4.2 Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 500 | 5,934.67 | 0.33% | 15,419 | -7% | 2,136 | -6% | - | - | - | | IC2507 | 5,868.00 | 0.01% | 31,394 | -5% | 368 | -5% | 70,063 | -3,404 | 99 | | IC2508 | 5,817.60 | -0.13% | 3,013 | -1% | 35 | -1% | 5,616 | 796 | 8 | | IC2509 | 5,764.60 | -0.19% | 26,248 | -5% | 302 | -5% | 92,761 | 1,286 | 128 | | IC2512 | 5,639.60 | -0.28% | 8,031 | 3% | 90 | 3% | 52,381 | 782 | 71 | [41] 3.3 Dividend Impact and Basis Information - The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 12.64 points, 17.83 points, 19.77 points, and 26.34 points respectively [47]. 3.4 Main Seats' Information - The information of the top five, ten, and twenty seats in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions for each contract (IC2507, IC2508, IC2509, IC2512) is detailed in the report, showing changes compared to the previous day [53][55][57] 5. IH (SSE 50 Index Futures) 5.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 2,717.71, up 0.21%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 32,102 lots, a decrease of 8,576 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 83,173 lots, a decrease of 2,668 lots from the previous day [59]. - The main contract of IH (IH2509) rose 0.08% to close at 2,689.8 points. The main contract was at a discount of 27.91 points, a decrease of 4.92 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -4.68% [59][60]. 5.2 Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,717.71 | 0.21% | 3,303 | -14% | 661 | -13% | - | - | - | | IH2507 | 2,696.00 | 0.16% | 11,086 | -22% | 90 | -22% | 24,800 | -1,601 | 24 | | IH2508 | 2,691.00 | 0.12% | 999 | 17% | 8 | 17% | 1,764 | 8 | 2 | | IH2509 | 2,689.80 | 0.08% | 17,755 | -23% | 143 | -23% | 48,099 | -1,034 | 47 | | IH2512 | 2,689.60 | 0.08% | 2,262 | -12% | 18 | -12% | 8,510 | -41 | 8 | [59] 5.3 Dividend Impact and Basis Information - The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 20.88 points, 23.44 points, 24.26 points, and 24.26 points respectively [69]. 5.4 Main Seats' Information - The information of the top five, ten, and twenty seats in terms of trading volume, long positions, and short positions for each contract (IH2507, IH2509) is detailed in the report, showing changes compared to the previous day [73][75]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pulse Daily Report - July 1, 2025: Limited Supply Bullishness, Sideways Market Movement" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Market Performance Futures and Spot Market - **Soybean Meal**: Futures prices showed mixed movements, with different contracts having varying closing prices and changes. Spot basis prices decreased in most regions. For example, the 01 contract of soybean meal closed at 3003 with a gain of 4, and the basis in Tianjin remained at -40. [4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Futures prices generally increased, and spot basis prices also showed some improvements. For instance, the 05 contract of rapeseed meal closed at 2320 with a gain of 6, and the basis in Guangdong increased by 16 to -116. [4] Spread Analysis - **Monthly Spreads**: Soybean meal monthly spreads had a mixed performance, with some spreads narrowing and others widening. Rapeseed meal monthly spreads showed a phased rebound, mainly influenced by the single - sided movement of the market. [4] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the spreads between soybean meal and sunflower meal, as well as rapeseed meal and sunflower meal, also changed. [4] Market Trends - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean market showed a sideways - down trend as the report lacked bullish drivers, and the market focused on the relatively loose supply - demand situation. [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market moved sideways with limited changes, while the rapeseed meal market rebounded. [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - **US**: The new - crop balance sheet of US soybeans improved due to the boost from biodiesel policies on crushing. As of the week ending June 15, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans reached 66%. The old - crop export inspection volume in the week ending June 12 was 21.58 tons, and the soybean crushing data in May was good, with the NOPA - caliber soybean crushing volume at 192.829 million bushels, a 1.37% increase from the previous month. [5] - **Brazil**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress was relatively slow and at a low level compared to historical periods. The recent selling progress continued to slow down, and price pressure emerged. The recent crushing volume decreased, and although the April crushing volume was good, the crushing profit was relatively low. It is expected that Brazil may further increase exports. [5] - **Argentina**: The domestic crushing volume may improve, and soybean exports may increase as the prices of terminal products have gradually stabilized. [5] Domestic Market - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic spot market remained relatively loose, with the oil refinery operating rate increasing, sufficient supply, and gradually accumulating inventory. As of June 27, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 248.78 tons, the operating rate was 69.93%, the soybean inventory was 665.87 tons, a 4.37% increase from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 69.16 tons, a 35.9% increase from the previous week. [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The demand for rapeseed meal gradually weakened, and although the supply was sufficient, the demand decline and high - level granular rapeseed meal still posed supply pressure. As of the week ending June 27, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil refineries was 4.3 tons, the operating rate was 11.46%, the rapeseed inventory was 18.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from the previous week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.1 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons from the previous week. [6] Group 4: Macro - analysis - The negotiation between China and the US in London was completed, but the market lacked clear information. There were still many uncertainties in international trade, but as the market gradually stabilized, macro - level disturbances decreased. Due to China's high demand for the US soybean market in the long - term, the price was not likely to drop significantly in the short term. [7] Group 5: Logical Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal market showed some pressure, but after the previous bearish factors were gradually reflected, the market rebounded. The overall bullish effect of the report was limited, and the recent upward trend slowed down. Although there were short - term bearish factors, the deep - decline space was limited as the price had dropped significantly. [7] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market moved sideways. The demand support was weak, and the upward space was limited due to the relatively high inventory level. [7] - **Spreads**: The monthly spreads of soybean meal had some support, and the monthly spreads of rapeseed meal were relatively strong. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was expected to widen in the future. [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: It is recommended to continue to make a small - scale long - position layout for the far - month contracts of soybean meal. [8] - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM09 spread. [8] - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [8] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit of soybeans from different origins and shipping periods varied. For example, the crushing profit of soybeans from Argentina in October was - 72.23, showing a decrease compared to the previous day. [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global inventories are expected to enter a stockpiling phase. The selling pressure after the start of Brazil's new sugar - crushing season has dragged down the raw sugar price center, and the expected increase in Brazil's production and the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere are suppressing raw sugar prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase [4]. - Domestically, the fast production and sales speed is expected to support sugar prices. However, the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market may drag down sugar prices. Coupled with the recent weak trend of raw sugar, sugar prices will maintain a weak trend in the short term [4]. - Raw sugar has fallen recently due to the expected increase in global supply. The change in Brazil's sugar production remains an important indicator for the market. In China, the faster - than - expected production and sales rhythm supports spot prices. But considering the short - term weak operation of raw sugar, the profit from out - of - quota imports has risen again, and the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to passively follow the raw sugar price fluctuations in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: For SR2511, the closing price is 5,775, down 32 with a decline of 0.56%, the trading volume is 190,361 with an increase of 0.80%, and the open interest is 309,811 with a decrease of 0.82%. For SR2507, the closing price is 5,790, down 20 with a decline of 0.34%, the trading volume is 218 with a decrease of 80.64%, and the open interest is 10,034 with a decrease of 1.11%. For SR2509, the closing price is 5,653, down 35 with a decline of 0.62%, the trading volume is 17,336 with a decrease of 5.00%, and the open interest is 53,130 with an increase of 1.89% [3]. - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the prices are as follows: 6150 in Liuzhou, 5895 - 6090 in Kunming, 6175 in Zhanjiang, 6160 in Nanning, 6420 in Bayuquan, 6420 in Rizhao, and 6420 in Xi'an [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The SR07 - SR11 spread is 137 with a change of 15, the SR09 - SR11 spread is 122 with a change of 15, and the SR07 - SR09 spread is 241 with a change of 15 [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, the ICE main contract price is 16.19, the premium is - 0.06, the freight is 36.25, the in - quota price is 4342, the out - of - quota price is 5548, the spread with Liuzhou is 602, the spread with Rizhao is 612.00, and the spread with the futures disk is 242. For Thai imports, the ICE main contract price is 16.19, the premium is 0.83, the freight is 18, the in - quota price is 4378, the out - of - quota price is 5595, the spread with Liuzhou is 555, the spread with Rizhao is 565.00, and the spread with the futures disk is 195 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: It is expected to maintain a sideways trend in the short term [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Take profit on the 9 - 1 spread [7]. - **Options**: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10]. 3.3 Relevant Attached Figures - The attached figures include Guangxi's monthly inventory, Yunnan's monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, the cumulative production and sales rate of domestic sugar, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, the spot price spread between Liuzhou and Kunming, the September basis of white sugar, and the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou sugar [11][13][16][19]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 2025/7/1 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2280 4 0.18% 13,931 -30.94% 115,285 0.96% 2304 0 0.00% 2,522 -41.03% 18,817 2.24% 2383 5 0.21% 426,304 -12.30% 942,750 -2.86% 2678 5 0.19% 2,056 213.41% 5,028 10.14% 2698 7 0.26% 52 -30.77% 221 6.25% 2743 10 0.36% 107,836 -11.75% 156,387 -0.32% 青冈 嘉吉生化 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 2300 2090 2550 2490 2400 2510 2470 10 0 -12 -40 10 0 0 -83 -293 167 107 17 127 87 龙凤 中粮 嘉吉 玉峰 金玉米 诸城兴贸 恒仁工贸 2800 2850 2850 3020 2950 2980 2960 0 50 0 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 河南花生价格稳定，东北花生价格稳定。目前东北吉林扶余 308 通货 4.7 元/斤，较 昨日价格稳定，辽宁昌图 4.7 元/斤，较昨日价格稳定。河南产区白沙通货米报价 4.6-4.75 元/斤，较昨日价格稳定，山东莒南 4.15 元/斤，较昨日价格稳定。进口苏丹精米报价 8300 元/吨，较昨日价格稳定。预计花生现货短期相对偏弱。 今日花生油厂采购价格稳定，主流成交价格维持在 7500-7650 元/吨，油厂理论保本 价 8140 元/吨。今日豆油价格稳定，花生油价格稳定，国内一级普通花生油报价稳定在 15000 元/吨，价格较昨日稳定，小榨浓香型花生油市场报价为 17000 元/吨，价格较昨日 稳定。 1 / 4 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Container shipping: The peak of the shipping season may be postponed, and the spot freight rate center may continue to rise. The trading strategy suggests a sideways trend for the single - side operation, with a focus on buying EC2512 at low prices, and a rolling operation for the 10 - 12 spread arbitrage [4][5][6]. - Dry bulk shipping: The large - vessel market is expected to be weak in the short term, while the medium - vessel market is expected to have a slightly stronger and fluctuating freight rate [17]. - Oil shipping: The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium, and the impact of market sentiment changes on the freight rate needs to be monitored [21]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis - On July 1, the EC2508 contract closed at 1904.9 points, up 8.15%. The final delivery settlement price of the EC2506 contract was 1919.34 points. The SCFI European line reported $2030/TEU on June 27, up 10.6% week - on - week [2][4]. - The spot freight rate center has gradually recovered, with different quotes from major shipping companies. Some shipping companies have raised their freight rates for the second half of July [5]. - In terms of demand, July is the peak shipping season, and the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm needs to be noted. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from July to September has increased compared to the previous schedule, and the market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Sideways. Consider a long - position strategy for EC2512 at low prices [6]. - Arbitrage: Rolling operation for the 10 - 12 spread arbitrage [8]. Industry News - The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Canada cancelled the digital service tax, and the EU and the US are conducting trade negotiations on tariffs [9]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis - The Baltic Dry Index dropped to 1489 points on Monday, the lowest since June 4. The Capesize ship freight index fell to 2111 points, the lowest since May 29, while the Panamax ship freight index rose to 1500 points, the highest since March 31 [13]. - As of June 30, the freight rate of the Capesize ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao decreased by 4.54% week - on - week, while that from Western Australia to Qingdao increased by 3.52% week - on - week. As of June 27, the freight rates of some coal and grain routes of Panamax ships had different changes [13][14]. - From June 23 to June 29, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 149.1 million tons week - on - week. The expected soybean export volume in Brazil in June is 1437 million tons [15][16]. Industry News - From June 23 to June 29, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 18.8 million tons. Guinea's bauxite exports in the first quarter increased by 39% year - on - year [18]. Oil Shipping Market Analysis - On June 30, the BDTI was 984, down 1.80% week - on - week and 12.22% year - on - year; the BCTI was 586, down 4.40% week - on - week and 28.54% year - on - year. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium [21]. Industry News - The average price of crude oil in this cycle first rose and then fell, and the prices of gasoline and diesel may continue to decline. It is expected that oil prices will rise in the third quarter and be under pressure in the fourth quarter. As of June 30, the crude oil arrival volume of Shandong independent refineries decreased by 17.54% week - on - week [22][23][24].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/7/1 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 15.29 | 15.09 | 0.20 | 山 西 | 15.05 | 14.84 | 0.21 | | 湖北（0） | 14.81 | 14.66 | 0.15 | 辽 宁 | 14.77 | 14.69 | 0.08 | | 安徽（300） | 15.29 | 15.15 | 0.14 | 吉 林 | 14.72 | 14.55 | 0.17 | | 湖南（100） | 15.09 | 14.79 | 0.30 | 黑龙江 | 14.55 | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 2 to June 28, 2025, SHFE lead weighted rose 2.39%, and LME lead rose 4.61%. In the first half of the year, apart from macro - impacts, lead prices were mainly affected by secondary lead supply. Due to high prices of lead - containing scrap and low lead prices, secondary lead smelting enterprises frequently cut production due to losses [4]. - In the second half of the year, July - August is the traditional peak season for lead - acid battery consumption in China. With the "trade - in" policy, domestic lead consumption is expected to grow steadily. However, the shortage of lead - containing scrap supply may cause secondary lead smelting enterprises to have periodic production cuts, which may interfere with domestic lead ingot supply. It is expected that the center of lead prices will move up, and there may be periodic gaps in domestic secondary lead supply, leading to price fluctuations [5][117]. Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - From January 2 to June 28, 2025, SHFE lead weighted rose 2.39%, and LME lead rose 4.61%. The lead price trend was affected by factors such as smelting profit, downstream replenishment, "tariff policy", and secondary lead smelting cost [4]. 1.2 Market Outlook - In the second half of the year, domestic lead consumption is expected to grow steadily during the peak season with policy support. But the shortage of lead - containing scrap may cause secondary lead production cuts and affect lead supply and prices [5]. 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The center of lead prices moves up with wide - range fluctuations. Try high - selling and low - buying operations based on secondary lead supply and consumption peak seasons [6][118]. - Options: Pay attention to the boost of consumption on lead prices and secondary lead production cuts, and try selling put options or buying call options at appropriate times [6][118]. 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Raw Material End - **Global Lead Concentrate Supply**: In January - April 2025, global lead ore production was 1.4324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Overseas production was 0.8454 million tons, up 3.12% year - on - year, and China's production was 0.587 million tons, also up 3.12% year - on - year [19]. - **Domestic Lead Ore Supply**: From January to May, domestic lead concentrate production was 0.6339 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.61%. With rising lead prices, by - product benefits, and new mine production, domestic lead concentrate supply improved. In June, northern mines resumed production, and it is expected that production will increase and processing fees may rise slightly in the second half of the year. From January to May, lead concentrate imports were 0.5525 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.93%. The import window may remain open in the second half of the year [21][24]. - **Lead - containing Scrap**: In the first half of the year, lead - containing scrap was difficult to recycle, and prices rose. Although smelters tried to lower purchase prices, prices rebounded due to shortages. In the second half of the year, the "trade - in" policy may increase recycling, but supply may still be short, and prices may remain high. Prices may drop periodically with secondary lead production cuts [32]. 2.2 Smelting End - **Global Refined Lead Balance**: From January to April 2025, cumulative global refined lead production was 4.3916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.08%; cumulative consumption was 4.3697 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.66%, with a cumulative surplus of 21,900 tons [35]. - **Domestic Primary Lead Supply**: From January to May, domestic electrolytic lead production was 1.5651 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.42%. After the lead price recovered and processing fees rebounded, smelters turned profitable. With new plants in production and less maintenance in the second half of the year, production may continue to rise if profitability is maintained [41]. - **Domestic Secondary Lead Supply**: From January to May, domestic secondary lead production was 1.347 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.61%. High scrap prices and low lead prices led to production cuts. In the second half of the year, there are expectations of production resumption and increase, but long - term over - capacity and high scrap prices may still cause production cuts and periodic supply shortages [53]. - **Import and Export Situation**: From January to May 2025, China's refined lead exports were 20,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.53%; imports were 16,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3089.06%. Net exports were 4700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.14%. Cumulative imports of refined lead and related products were 63,500 tons, up 181.46% year - on - year, and exports were 29,900 tons, up 24.37% year - on - year [60]. 2.3 Demand End - **Battery Market**: As of June 27, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid batteries was 68.77%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. From February to May, the operating rate increased due to policies and "rush - to - export" orders. In June, it declined due to the off - season and order over - drafting. In the second half of the year, the peak season and policies may boost consumption, but there may be off - seasons after the peak [71]. - **Terminal Market**: - **Automobile Market**: From January to May, automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 10.9%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million vehicles respectively, up 45.2% and 44% year - on - year. In the second half of the year, production and sales are expected to increase with policy support, which will positively affect lead consumption [84]. - **Electric Bicycle Market**: By May 20, 6.08 million old and new electric bicycles were traded in, driving new vehicle sales of 17.82 billion yuan. The "trade - in" policy continues, but the industry is in the mature stage, and the lithium - battery market may affect lead - acid battery consumption [87]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.1 Future Outlook - Similar to the market outlook in the preface, the second half of the year may see stable growth in lead consumption but periodic supply shortages in secondary lead, leading to price fluctuations [117]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendation - The same as the strategy recommendation in the preface, including unilateral high - selling and low - buying operations and option trading based on consumption and secondary lead production cuts [6][118].

| 2 | | --- | | 232 | 终将落地 | 铜价或再次下行 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | | 铜市场综述 2 | | | 第二部分 | | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、 | | 行情回顾 3 | | | 二、 | | 行情展望 4 | | | 第三部分 | | 铜矿产量下调，增速低于年初预期 7 | | | 一、 | | 铜精矿供应增速不及预期 7 | | | 二、 | | 废铜结构性错配造成供应下降的假象 10 | | | 三、 | | 全球精铜产量情况 12 | | | 第四部分 | | 消费面分析 15 | | | 一、 | | 三季度海外消费保持韧性，四季度不确定性增强 | 15 | | 二、 | | 国内需求分化 17 | | | 三、 | | 新能源行业需求走弱 22 | | | 四、 | | 消费总结 27 | | | 第五部分 | | 供需平衡表 28 | | | | | 免责声明 | 29 | 有色金属研发报告 铜半年报 2025 年 6 月 3 0 日 232 终将落地 铜价或再次下行 第一部分 铜市场综述 2025 年 ...

短期，预计 6 月马棕继续小幅累库，三季度产地仍处增产周期，棕榈油 报价或震荡偏弱运行。目前市场仍关注美国生柴的落地情况，将对盘面造成 较大扰动。当前美豆主产区天气良好，后期继续关注产地天气和季度报告。 国内豆油开始累库，但预计库存仍不会宽松。欧洲菜籽临近上市，另外加拿 大上调旧作菜籽库存，国内菜油基本面变化不大，菜油供大于求的格局持续， 不过国内菜油进入逐渐去库阶段，菜油在国内基本面边际好转的预期下以及 中加关系不确定性仍存，对菜油盘面提供一定支撑。 【策略推荐】 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、 | 行情回顾 3 | | | 二、 | 棕榈油出口表现欠佳，库存整体保持紧平衡 | 4 | | 三、 | 印度阶段性进口高峰有望来临，但本年度整体进口或将明显下滑 | 9 | | 四、 | 提议增加美国生柴义务 12 巴西上调生柴掺混至 B15，EPA | | | 五、 | 国内油脂库存持续累库 油脂基差稳中偏弱运行 ...