Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report - Ferroalloy Daily, March 2, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [2] - Contact: zhoutao_qh1@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF主力合约: Closing price 5764, up 38 (0.66%) from the previous day, weekly increase of 272, trading volume 275339 (down 71618), open interest 221874 (down 14296) [3] - SM主力合约: Closing price 6082, up 56 (0.93%) from the previous day, weekly increase of 312, trading volume 440382 (down 135210), open interest 454840 (up 8585) [3] Spot - Silicon Iron: Prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Tianjin increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [3] - Manganese Silicon: Prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Jiangsu increased by 20 - 150 yuan/ton [3] Basis/Spread - Silicon Iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis -364 (up 12), weekly change -142; Ningxia - main contract basis -364 (up 62), weekly change -152; Qinghai - main contract basis -414 (up 12), weekly change -172; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread 350 (down 50), weekly change -130; SF - SM spread -318 (down 18), weekly change -40 [3] - Manganese Silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis -332 (down 6), weekly change -182; Ningxia - main contract basis -382 (down 6), weekly change -162; Guangxi - main contract basis -262 (down 36), weekly change -242; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread 70 (down 30), weekly change -60 [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Australian lump unchanged at 42.3 yuan/ton degree, weekly increase of 0.3; South African semi - carbonate up 0.2 to 37.7 yuan/ton degree, weekly increase of 0.7; Gabon lump up 0.2 to 43.2 yuan/ton degree, weekly increase of 0.4 [3] - Lanthanum Coke Small Material: Prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: After the sharp price increase, the risk - return ratio has decreased. Partially take profit on the previously recommended long positions [5][6][7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7] Key Information - A silicon iron enterprise in Ningxia plans to resume production of 3 * 33000 silicon iron electric furnaces on March 1, affecting daily production of 300 tons, and the 4th furnace is expected to resume production at the beginning of the month [8] - On the 2nd, the price of South African semi - carbonate Mn35.4%Fe4% at Tianjin Port was 37.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump Mn42.1% was 42.5 yuan/ton degree, and Gabon lump Mn47% was 43.5 yuan/ton degree [8] Group 4: Cost and Profit Silicon Iron | Region | Production Cost (yuan/ton) | Profit (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Inner Mongolia | 5500 | -250 | | Ningxia | 5321 | -121 | | Shaanxi | 5505 | -325 | | Qinghai | 5839 | -589 | | Gansu | 5687 | -437 | [19] Manganese Silicon | Region | Production Cost (yuan/ton) | Profit (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Inner Mongolia | 5977 | -377 | | Ningxia | 5949 | -399 | | Guangxi | 6280 | -580 | | Guizhou | 6164 | -514 | [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has significantly impacted the global commodity market, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty. The conflict has affected the supply and prices of various commodities such as energy, metals, and agricultural products. [122][62][109] - The performance of different industries and commodities varies. Some industries are supported by cost or demand, showing a strong or stable trend, while others are under pressure due to factors such as oversupply or weak demand, showing a weak or volatile trend. [28][34][57] Summary of Each Section Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: After the Spring Festival, the stock index showed differentiation. The A - share market was driven by price - increase expectations, with the main driving force coming from improved product supply - demand relationships and abundant social funds. The geopolitical conflict may lead to market fluctuations, but the stock index is still expected to maintain an upward trend. [21][22] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The short - term market risk - aversion sentiment has increased due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the bond yield is expected to decline. However, the strengthening of the bond market may not be sustainable. The "Two Sessions" policy stance may focus on promoting domestic technology development and industrial transformation, and the impact of bond supply on the market is expected to be limited. [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Geopolitical factors and weather conditions have increased market uncertainty. The US soybean processing volume and Brazilian soybean harvest are affected by various factors. The domestic soybean market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar production is expected to decline, but the start of the Brazilian new - sugar season in April and May may increase supply pressure. The domestic sugar market has supply pressure but is also supported by low prices and potential import - policy tightening. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, with a short - term slightly stronger trend. [29][31][32] - **Oils**: The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may drive up the price of crude oil, and the price of oils is expected to follow the upward trend. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the supply pressure of domestic soybean oil may be postponed. The overall domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term. [33][34] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The price of US corn has risen, and the domestic corn spot price has increased due to factors such as the start of deep - processing enterprises and the increase in corn supply in North China. However, considering the post - festival selling pressure, the upward space of the futures price is limited. [36][37] - **Hogs**: The overall supply of hogs is still large, and the price is generally in a downward trend. However, due to factors such as the good completion of large - scale enterprise slaughter and the decrease in the inventory of secondary fattening, the short - term spot price may be supported, and the downward space of the futures price is also limited. [38][39] - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the price of peanut oil is also stable. The supply of peanut kernels for oil is relatively loose, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [41][42] - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg market enters the off - season. Although the inventory has been alleviated to some extent, the overall de - stocking has weakened due to the good egg price performance. It is recommended to short the June contract. [44][47] - **Apples**: The inventory of apples has decreased significantly recently, and the demand is expected to improve further in March and April. The high cost of apple warehouse receipts also supports the price. It is recommended to go long on the May contract. [48][50][51] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals of cotton are relatively stable, with no obvious negative factors. The global cotton supply is expected to be slightly tight, and the signing situation has improved. It is recommended to go long on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices. [53][55] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The fundamentals of the steel market continue to weaken, with reduced production, increased inventory, and weak demand. However, the geopolitical conflict may drive up the price of non - ferrous metals, leading to a short - term strong - oscillating trend in the steel price. [57] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The international geopolitical conflict may support the domestic coking coal price. The current coking coal price has basically priced in the existing negative factors, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [59][60] - **Iron Ore**: The geopolitical conflict has little impact on the supply of domestic iron ore. The supply of iron ore is abundant, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate. [62] - **Ferroalloys**: The price of ferrosilicon is expected to be strong due to cost support, and the price of ferromanganese silicon may be adjusted after a rapid increase. It is recommended to hold long positions in ferrosilicon and partially take profits in ferromanganese silicon. [64][65] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical risks have led to a sharp rise in the price of gold and silver. The market is dominated by risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is expected to continue to be strong. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and hold the remaining positions. [67][68] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The price of platinum and palladium is mainly affected by the risk - aversion demand of funds. The price of platinum is expected to be slightly strong in the short term, while the price of palladium is expected to follow the trend of platinum. It is recommended to go long on platinum at low prices and wait and see on palladium. [70][71][72] - **Copper**: The short - term copper price is in a high - level consolidation state. Although the geopolitical conflict has limited direct impact on copper, long - term war may support the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips in the long term. [74][76] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina is supported, but the expectation of oversupply restricts the price. The price is expected to decline in an oscillating manner. [79] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict may increase the price volatility of electrolytic aluminum. It is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. [80][81] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate with the aluminum market. It is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. [82][83] - **Zinc**: The price of zinc is affected by geopolitical factors and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes. [84][85][86] - **Lead**: The price of lead is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. [87][88][89] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel is mainly affected by macro factors, and the supply - demand relationship is still in a surplus state. However, the expected tight supply in Indonesia may support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the macro - capital trend. [90][91] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the price of nickel ore, and the price follows the trend of nickel. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices. [93][94] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a state of multiple factors, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see. [96][97] - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals of polysilicon are bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see the spot trading situation. [98][99] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and it is necessary to pay attention to the resistance at the previous high. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices. [102][105] - **Tin**: The price of tin is in a high - level consolidation state. The impact of the Indonesian tin export ban is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. [106][108] Shipping and Carbon Emission - **Container Shipping**: The escalation of the Middle East situation has led some shipping companies to reroute to the Cape of Good Hope. The spot freight rate is in the off - season, but the conflict may drive up the freight rate. It is recommended to go long on dips. [109][110] - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The deterioration of the trade environment in the Persian Gulf may boost the freight rate of small - sized ships in the short term. The BDI index has declined slightly, but the performance of small and medium - sized ship markets is better. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Middle East geopolitical situation. [112][113][115] - **Carbon Emission Market**: The domestic carbon market price is stable but lacks activity. The EU carbon market has not摆脱 the downward trend. In the short term, the domestic carbon price is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner, while the EU carbon market is affected by policy uncertainty. [116][119][120] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil**: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a significant rise in the price of crude oil. The price of Brent crude oil is expected to be in the range of $78 - 85 per barrel. It is recommended to take profits on out - of - the - money call options. [122] - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt is supported by cost but is affected by weak demand. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract and pay attention to geopolitical risks. [124][125] - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are the main driving force for the price of fuel oil. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply changes in Iran and Russia. It is recommended to hold long positions in the FU2605 contract and not chase the high price. [127][129] - **LPG**: The escalation of the Middle East situation has increased the cost support of LPG, and the price is expected to rise significantly. [130] - **Natural Gas**: The conflict in the Middle East has led to a supply - side risk in the natural gas market, and the price is expected to rise significantly in the short term. It is recommended to buy a TTF straddle option. [133][134] - **PX & PTA**: The supply of PTA is gradually returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [137][139] - **BZ & EB**: The supply of benzene and styrene is returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions and conduct reverse arbitrage. [140][142] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has improved, but the inventory has been continuously increasing. The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. [144][145] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions and reduce the processing cost spread at high prices. [146][147] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply of bottle chips is expected to be tight, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [148][149] - **Propylene**: The supply of propylene is partially returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [150][151][153] - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of PP at ports has been increasing. It is recommended to try to go long on the L 2605 contract at low prices and wait and see on the PP 2605 contract. [154][155] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is expected to be weak in an oscillating manner. It is recommended to wait and see. [156][158] - **PVC**: The price of PVC is expected to follow the upward trend of the market. It is recommended to follow the market trend. [159][161] - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. It is recommended to go long at low prices and not chase the high price. [162][163][164] - **Glass**: The price of glass is affected by macro - sentiment and is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to short at high prices or sell call options. [165][166][167] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is expected to rise strongly due to the geopolitical conflict. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation. [168][169] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is at a high level, and the demand is expected to start. The price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions. [170][173] - **Pulp**: The price of pulp is expected to be strong in the short term, but the market is still in a state of oversupply. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on European pulp supply. [174][175][178] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The high inventory of offset printing paper restricts the price rebound. It is recommended to short at high prices. [179][180] - **Logs**: The supply and demand of logs are both weak, and the price is expected to be supported by cost. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions. [182][183] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The inventory of tires has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to short a small amount of the RU 05 contract and wait and see on the NR 05 contract. [184][185][187] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of tires has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to reduce the holding of the BR04 contract and hold long positions in the BR 05 contract. [188][189][191]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market conditions of L plastic and PP polypropylene fluctuate daily, affected by factors such as geopolitical events, inventory levels, and检修情况. Different indicators like M1 - M2 scissors - difference, ZEW global auto industry index, and import - export data of raw salt have impacts on the market, leading to different trading strategies for L and PP contracts [1][2][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: - On 26 - 03 - 02, the L main 2605 contract closed at 6633 points, up 36 points or +0.55%. LLDPE market prices fluctuated, with a change range of 20 - 80 yuan/ton. Some traders actively sold goods, while some held back due to the Middle - East situation. Downstream factories made rigid purchases [1] - On 26 - 02 - 27, the L main 2605 contract closed at 6604 points, down 64 points or - 0.96%. LLDPE market prices slightly declined, with price drops in different regions [5] - On 26 - 02 - 26, the L main 2605 contract closed at 6758 points, down 19 points or - 0.28%. LLDPE market prices partially rose, but trading was light [9] - On 26 - 02 - 25, the L main 2605 contract closed at 6826 points, up 6 points or +0.09%. LLDPE market prices partially rose, and some downstream buyers made purchases [13] - On 26 - 02 - 24, the L main 2605 contract closed at 6644 points, down 90 points or - 1.34%. LLDPE market prices were stable, and there was little trading [16] - **PP Polypropylene**: - On 26 - 03 - 02, the PP main 2605 contract closed at 6641 points, up 30 points or +0.45%. The domestic PP market price center had a narrow adjustment, and afternoon trading was limited due to geopolitical factors [1] - On 26 - 02 - 27, the PP main 2605 contract closed at 6605 points, down 70 points or - 1.05%. The domestic PP market was partially weak, and downstream demand was limited [5] - On 26 - 02 - 26, the PP main 2605 contract closed at 6734 points, up 14 points or +0.21%. The domestic PP market still had some price increases, but downstream inquiries were weak [9] - On 26 - 02 - 25, the PP main 2605 contract closed at 6747 points, up 1 point or +0.01%. The spot market was boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, and downstream factories made some purchases [13] - On 26 - 02 - 24, the PP main 2605 contract closed at 6568 points, down 80 points or - 1.20%. The domestic PP market price changed little during the holiday, and trading was scarce [16] Important Information - On 26 - 03 - 02, the US and Israel launched a "pre - emptive" military strike against Iran on February 28, and Iran retaliated. Missile debris hit Dubai and Abu Dhabi, causing at least one death [1] - On 26 - 02 - 27, global refined oil demand will enter the end of growth in the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. China's refining and refined oil industry will enter the "transformation acceleration period" [5] - On 26 - 02 - 26, the 1000 - million - ton/year refining and chemical integration transformation and upgrading project of Yanchang Petroleum in Yan'an, with a total investment of 80.29 billion yuan, has completed pre - preparations and been submitted to the State Council for approval [9] - On 26 - 02 - 25, in 2025, the petrochemical industry achieved stable progress. Crude oil production increased for seven consecutive years, and natural gas production increased for nine consecutive years. However, industry investment and import - export trade volume decreased [13] - On 26 - 02 - 24, the EU's Waste Technical Adaptation Committee for the Single - Use Plastics Directive approved a draft implementation act regarding the accounting rules for recycled PET in plastic beverage bottles [16] Logical Analysis - In January, the domestic M1 - M2 scissors - difference was - 4.1%, slightly positive for commodities. As of last Friday, the registered warehouse receipts of the DCE L contract increased by 74.1% year - on - year, and those of the PP contract increased by 138.0% year - on - year. From February, PP port inventory has increased for three consecutive months [2] - In February, the ZEW global auto industry index dropped to - 7.2 points, slightly negative for commodities. In December 2025, the domestic raw salt import - export volume decreased by 46.0% year - on - year, negative for the chemical industry. The weekly maintenance loss of domestic LLDPE and PP increased, but the growth rate narrowed [6][10] - In December 2025, US auto and parts new orders increased by 11.4% year - on - year, positive for commodities. In January, the VXD index rose by 2.8% year - on - year, positive for the chemical industry. The monthly maintenance loss of LLDPE and PP increased, and the ratio of the two indicated that L was relatively strong [14] - As of the holiday, the registered warehouse receipts of the DCE L contract increased by 43.2% year - on - year, and those of the PP contract increased by 94.2% year - on - year. In January, the monthly maintenance loss of LLDPE increased by 37.1% year - on - year, positive for L [17] Trading Strategies - **26 - 03 - 02**: For the L main 2605 contract, try to go long at an appropriate time and set a stop - loss at 6550 points. For the PP main 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines [2] - **26 - 02 - 27**: For the L main 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines. For the PP main 2605 contract, hold short positions and set a stop - loss at 6700 points [6] - **26 - 02 - 26**: For the L main 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines. For the PP main 2605 contract, hold short positions and set a stop - loss at 6700 points [10] - **26 - 02 - 25**: For the L main 2605 contract, try to go long at an appropriate time and set a stop - loss at 6700 points. For the PP main 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the pressure at 6770 points [14] - **26 - 02 - 24**: For the L main 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the support at 6600 points. For the PP main 2605 contract, try shorting a small amount and set a stop - loss at 6620 points [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The global natural rubber market is expected to face a supply - demand imbalance for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with production growth lower than expected due to various factors such as adverse weather, limited replanting, low productivity, and leaf - fall disease [22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **RU Natural Rubber**: Prices of RU main contracts and related rubber products fluctuate daily. For example, on 26 - 03 - 02, the RU main 05 contract closed at 16990 points, down 165 points or 0.96% [1] - **NR 20 - number Rubber**: NR main contracts and related products also show price changes. On 26 - 03 - 02, the NR main 05 contract closed at 13735 points, down 125 points or 0.90% [1] - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: BR main contracts and related products have price movements. On 26 - 03 - 02, the BR main 05 contract closed at 12780 points, up 115 points or 0.91% [2] Important Information - **Global Light - vehicle Sales**: In January 2026, global light - vehicle sales dropped due to a significant contraction in the Chinese passenger - car market, with sales in the US, Western Europe, and China all decreasing. The reasons vary by region [2] - **EU Passenger - car Market**: In January 2026, EU passenger - car market sales decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 vehicles. The market share of pure - electric vehicles increased, while that of gasoline and diesel vehicles decreased [7] - **US Tire Imports**: In 2025, US tire imports increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Imports from China decreased, while those from Thailand increased [12] - **Thai Rubber Exports**: In January 2026, Thai natural rubber and mixed - rubber exports decreased by 10% year - on - year, and exports to China also decreased [17] Logical Analysis - **Macroeconomic Factors**: In January, domestic M1 and M2 growth and the M1 - M2 spread had a slight positive impact on commodities. In February, the ZEW global auto - industry index had a slight negative impact [3][8] - **Inventory Factors**: Inventory changes in rubber contracts, domestic dry - rubber, and tire production lines have different impacts on rubber prices. For example, in January, the inventory of RU contracts in the SHFE increased slightly, while that of NR contracts in the Energy Center decreased slightly [3] - **Production Factors**: ANRPC member countries' production, tire production rates, and natural - rubber production in Thailand all affect the market. For example, in December 2025, ANRPC production decreased year - on - year [13] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Different strategies are proposed for RU and NR main contracts on different dates, such as short - selling a small amount of the RU main 05 contract on 26 - 03 - 02 [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Strategies for arbitrage trading between different contracts are also provided, such as holding the RU2605 - RU2609 spread and adjusting stop - loss levels [13] - **Options Trading**: Generally, the report suggests waiting and seeing for options trading [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for the rubber market, including BR butadiene rubber and RU/NR natural rubber [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: The price of BR butadiene rubber fluctuates. For example, on March 2, 2026, the BR main 05 contract closed at 12,780 points, up 115 points or +0.91%. The prices in different regions also vary, such as Shandong, East China, and South China [1] - **RU/NR Natural Rubber**: The prices of RU and NR also fluctuate. On March 2, 2026, the RU main 05 contract closed at 16,990 points, down 165 points or -0.96%; the NR main 05 contract closed at 13,735 points, down 125 points or -0.90% [2] Important Information - **European Passenger Car Market**: In January 2026, the EU passenger car market sales decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 vehicles. The market share of pure electric vehicles reached 19.3%, up from 14.9% in the previous year, while the combined market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles dropped to 30.1% from 39.5% last year [2][7] - **US Tire Import**: In 2025, the US imported 286.15 million tires, a 4.8% year - on - year increase. The import from China decreased by 15%, while that from Thailand increased by 10% [11] - **Global Natural Rubber Market**: The ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber market will be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. The global natural rubber production is expected to grow by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons in 2026 [19] Logical Analysis - **Macroeconomic Factors**: In January, the domestic M1 - M2 scissors gap rebounded slightly, which is slightly positive for commodities. The ZEW global auto industry index declined in February, slightly negative for commodities [2][3][7] - **Inventory Factors**: The BR contract warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 5.7% to 18,540 tons as of last Friday, and the total inventory was 40,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 128.3%. The domestic butadiene port inventory decreased to 37,200 tons in February, with a narrowing increase rate [3][12] - **Production Factors**: The domestic high - cis butadiene rubber production capacity utilization rate increased to 80.3% in February, a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. The domestic all - steel tire production line start - up rate increased to 29.2%, a year - on - year increase of 36.6% [7] Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: For example, on March 2, 2026, the BR04 contract was recommended to reduce positions and wait and see; the BR main 05 contract was recommended to hold long positions, with the stop - loss set at 12,605 points [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: For the BR2605 - RU2605 (2 lots vs 1 lot) spread, it was recommended to enter the market at an appropriate time, with the stop - loss set at - 4,490 points [3] - **Options Trading**: It was recommended to wait and see [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support for pure benzene is strengthening due to factors such as potential production load reduction and geopolitical concerns affecting crude oil prices. The supply of styrene is returning in February, but the fundamentals are weakening, and the downstream demand feedback of the styrene industry chain is limited [10][42][66]. - With the slowdown of refining and chemical production capacity expansion in China, the new production capacity of pure benzene will slow down in the future, and the new capacity in 2026 is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, roughly matching the commissioning time of new styrene plants [10]. - The global styrene industry is facing the dual pressures of capacity expansion and demand contraction, and the profit space is continuously squeezed. However, the shutdown of some foreign styrene plants is beneficial for exports [49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation 3.1.1 Pure Benzene Cost Support Strengthens - At the beginning of 2026, pure benzene broke through the bottom - shock range. The collective rise of aromatic products is the result of the resonance of cost support, supply disturbances, and macro - sentiment. The long - term production load of pure benzene may be affected by the news of full - scale consumption tax collection in the naphtha circulation link [10]. - In the first quarter, the new pure benzene production capacity is 300,000 tons. In the future, the new production capacity of pure benzene will slow down, and the new capacity in 2026 is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. The import volume of pure benzene is expected to decrease month - on - month in January - February due to the US tariff on South Korean aromatics [10]. - In February, the operating load of domestic petroleum benzene returned to over 80%, while the load of hydro - benzene decreased compared with January. Some plants have restart plans, and the inventory of pure benzene is still high [11]. - The escalation of the US - Iran situation provides support for crude oil prices, strengthening the cost support for pure benzene [11]. 3.1.2 The Weekly Weighted Operating Load of Pure Benzene Downstream Increased in January - As of the 19th of February, the weekly weighted operating load of pure benzene downstream was 76.98%, a month - on - month increase. The operating rates of aniline and adipic acid increased month - on - month, while the load of caprolactam plants decreased, and the spot supply was tight. Phenol - acetone enterprises had serious losses, but the industry operating rate was relatively high [23]. 3.1.3 Styrene Supply Returned in February, and the Fundamentals Weakened - In 2026, the planned new styrene production capacity in China is 700,000 tons, with a capacity growth rate dropping to around 3%. In February, the styrene industry was profitable, and the load increased month - on - month due to the restart of some plants [42]. - The port inventory of styrene increased seasonally, but the increase was lower than expected. The supply - demand structure of styrene weakened during the Spring Festival [43]. - The global styrene industry is facing capacity expansion and demand contraction, and many domestic and foreign production plants have reduced production or shut down. Some foreign plants' shutdowns are beneficial for exports [49]. 3.1.4 The Demand Feedback of the Styrene Industry Chain Downstream was Limited - During the Spring Festival, the operating rates of EPS, ABS, and PS downstream of styrene decreased month - on - month. The procurement demand of small and medium - sized downstream enterprises may gradually weaken, and the transaction volume is difficult to increase effectively [66]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of the three S products (EPS, ABS, PS) are still weak. The demand of ABS is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors, the willingness of EPS downstream to receive goods at high prices may continue to decline, and the supply - demand pressure of PS still exists [66]. 3.2 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The new production capacity of pure benzene in the first quarter is 300,000 tons, and the new capacity will slow down in the future. The import volume of pure benzene is expected to decrease month - on - month in January - February. The styrene industry is profitable, but the profit space is squeezed. Some foreign plant shutdowns are beneficial for exports [75][76]. - Strategy Recommendations: - Unilateral: Buy on dips after a pull - back. Without the cooperation of cost - side crude oil drivers, the upward driving force is not strong [77]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities and shrink the EB - BZ spread when the price is high [77]. - Options: Wait and see [77].

Report Title - The report is titled "Gold and Silver March Monthly Report 2026", released on February 27, 2026 [3][9] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The report indicates that with the strengthening of the macro - narrative, gold and silver are expected to operate in a relatively strong manner [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The report presents the disk trends of London gold, London silver, Shanghai gold, and Shanghai silver, but no specific review and outlook content is provided [12][13] 2. Macroeconomic Factors - **GDP**: The report shows the quarterly performance of US GDP and the contribution of GDP sub - items. There are fluctuations in the actual GDP annualized quarterly growth rate and the GDP expenditure method annualized figures [24][25] - **Employment**: The data of US new non - farm and ADP employment numbers (3 - month average) and the structure of new non - farm employment are presented. For example, in April 2026, the total new non - farm employment was 130,000 [30][31] - **Job Vacancies and Unemployment**: The relationship between US job vacancies and the unemployment rate is shown. There are data on the JOLTS job vacancy rate and the unemployment rate [33][34] - **PCE and Personal Consumption Expenditure**: The report shows the US PCE price index year - on - year and personal consumption expenditure data, including the monthly year - on - year and month - on - month changes [38] - **Fed Rate Expectations**: The CME FedWatch tool shows the conditional meeting probabilities of the Fed's interest rate decisions at different meeting dates. For example, on March 18, 2026, the probability of the interest rate being in the 325 - 350 range was 4%, and in the 350 - 375 range was 96% [40] 3. Fundamental Factors - **Gold Supply and Demand**: - **Supply**: The supply of gold from various sources such as mines, recycling, etc. is presented. For example, the global mine production in 2025 was 3,672 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [44] - **Demand**: Gold demand includes jewelry, investment, industrial use, and central bank purchases. In 2025, the total gold demand was 4,999.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. Central bank purchases in 2025 were 663.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.0% [44] - **Price**: The LEMA gold price in 2025 was $3,432 per ounce, a year - on - year increase of 43.8% [44] - **Silver Supply and Demand**: - **Inventory**: The report shows the inventory data of silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London LBMA market, and US Comex market [54][57] - **Trade**: The export and import data of silver in China are presented. For example, the export volume of unforged silver with a purity of ≥99.99% in 2025 had certain fluctuations [59][62] - **ETF and Lease Rate**: The total global silver ETF holdings and the lease rate of silver are shown [60][61]

Report Title - Copper Monthly Report for March 2026, released on February 27, 2026 [3][8][19] Core Viewpoint - Due to the increase in strategic reserve demand, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Summary by Directory Part One: Copper Market Overview - Includes copper price trends, spread analysis, and inventory data [12][15][20] Part Two: Tense Geopolitical Situation and Increased Strategic Reserve Demand - Presents data on US CPI, PPI, non - farm employment, inventory cycles, global military expenditure, and copper - gold ratio [29][31][32] Part Three: Supply Side - Capital expenditure in the copper industry has a lagged effect on copper mine growth rates. For example, in 2007, the capital expenditure growth rate was 34.46%, and in 2013, the copper mine growth rate was 8.98% with a 6 - year lag [38] - Shows the production of major global mining companies from 2025 - 2026 [42][44] - Global copper mine supply growth rates from 2020 - 2026 are 0.36%, 2.31%, 3.24%, 2.09%, 2.77%, - 0.13%, and 1.74% respectively [46] - Analyzes China's copper mine production, imports, and other supply - related data [48][52][53] Part Four: Consumption Analysis - In the real estate sector, data on commercial housing sales, new construction, and completion are presented [73] - For the power grid and cable industry, data on wire and cable start - up rates, exports, and investment in power grids and power sources are shown [74][75][76] - In the air - conditioning industry, data on domestic sales, exports, production, and external sales of air - conditioners are provided [81][84][85] - In the automotive industry, data on overall vehicle sales, fuel - powered vehicle sales, and new energy vehicle sales and penetration rates are given [89][91][92] - In the photovoltaic and wind power industries, data on global and regional new - installed capacity, and copper consumption are presented [100][101][111] - For data centers and energy storage, data on global data center IT capacity, US data center power demand, and lithium - ion energy - storage battery demand are shown [121][122][127] Part Five: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - China's refined copper supply - demand balance sheet from 2025 - 2026 shows details of production, imports, exports, inventory, apparent consumption, and growth rates [134] - The global copper supply - demand balance sheet from 2020 - 2026E shows copper concentrate and refined copper supply, demand, and balance conditions [135]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The tin price is experiencing wide - range fluctuations due to the tug - of - war between macro sentiment and demand expectations [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Preface Summary - The tin price is affected by the interaction between macro sentiment and demand expectations, resulting in wide - range fluctuations [3] 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Production - In January, tin production declined, and it is expected that production will remain at a low level in February due to the Spring Festival holiday [29] 3.2.2 Terminal Consumption - **Consumer Electronics**: Consumer electronics are expected to have moderate growth. The report presents data on global smartphone shipments, China's 5G mobile phone shipments, China's integrated circuit production, and global semiconductor sales to illustrate the situation [38][41][43] - **Photovoltaic**: After the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, orders have declined rapidly. The report shows data on new photovoltaic installed capacity and China's monthly photovoltaic module production [44][47] - **Tin Chemistry**: In the long - term, tin chemical consumption may be affected. The consumption of tin chemicals is closely related to housing completion. The report presents data on commercial housing sales area, housing new construction area, housing completion area, and domestic PVC production [48][50][54] 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - No relevant information provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In February 2026, the pulp market was in a game between "cost support, high inventory, and weak demand". The supply was generally loose, with high - level imports gradually decreasing, high domestic production, and rising port inventories. The demand was structurally differentiated, with packaging paper having rigid demand for broad - leaf pulp, the recovery of the tissue paper industry, and weak cultural paper demand dragging down the consumption of softwood pulp. The total consumption of wood pulp decreased month - on - month [4][50]. - In March, the pulp market is expected to oscillate moderately and move upward slightly, with the valuation center likely to rise slightly. However, the high inventory of softwood pulp and the delayed recovery of cultural paper demand will limit the increase. The double - offset paper market is expected to remain "weakly stable with marginal improvement", and it is difficult for the valuation to fluctuate significantly [5][50][52]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface - The pulp market in February was characterized by the game between cost support, high inventory, and weak demand. The Spring Festival holiday exacerbated the supply - demand contradiction, with high inventory and difficult price increases for paper mills [3][4]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Pulp Futures and Spot Price Trends Review - In February 2026, the domestic pulp market showed a differentiated pattern of "weak oscillation before the Spring Festival and improved sentiment after the festival". In the spot market, softwood pulp rose with the futures, broad - leaf pulp increased significantly due to foreign price hikes, and other types of pulp remained stable or had regional differences. In the futures market, the contract oscillated upward after the festival driven by funds [10][13]. 3.2.2 Pulp Supply - Import: The import volume was at a high level but gradually decreased. The supply of softwood pulp remained stable, and the import of broad - leaf pulp was supported by foreign price hikes. In the future, the import scale may decline slowly but remain high in the short term [20]. - Domestic production: The domestic production capacity was accelerating, and the output remained at a high level. The expansion was mainly concentrated in the broad - leaf pulp field, and the substitution effect of non - wood pulp was gradually increasing [21][22]. - Port inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching over 240.1 million tons. The de - stocking pressure was mainly on softwood pulp, while broad - leaf pulp was in a tight - balance state [22]. 3.2.3 Pulp Demand - Cultural paper: Affected by the Spring Festival and the off - season, the demand was weak, and the profit was under pressure. Paper mills purchased pulp cautiously [26]. - Packaging paper: Supported by pre - festival order completion and post - festival restocking, the demand for broad - leaf pulp was rigid [26]. - Tissue paper: After the festival, paper mills resumed production, and the consumption of softwood and broad - leaf pulp increased steadily [29]. 3.2.4 Cultural Paper Market Review - In February, the cultural paper market continued the pattern of "stable price, weak volume, and pressured profit". The prices of double - offset paper and coated paper remained stable, but the industry loss increased, and the inventory continued to accumulate [30]. 3.2.5 Cultural Paper Supply - Demand and Inventory - Production: Affected by the Spring Festival, the production capacity utilization rate of double - offset paper and coated paper was at a low level [38]. - Inventory: The inventory of double - offset paper reached a new high, and the inventory days were far beyond the reasonable range. The inventory removal was difficult [39][40]. - Profit: Although paper mills intended to raise prices, it was difficult to implement due to sufficient downstream inventory, loose supply - demand, and "low - price order - grabbing" by small and medium - sized paper mills [41]. 3.2.6 Cultural Paper Demand Analysis - Import and export: The export volume of double - offset paper was stable but the price was weak, and the cumulative decline narrowed. The export of coated paper remained at a low level [46]. - Downstream demand: Affected by the Spring Festival, the apparent consumption of double - offset paper and coated paper decreased. The demand from the publishing and social printing sectors was weak, and the real demand recovery was slower than expected [46][47]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations 3.3.1 Pulp Fundamental Analysis - In March, the pulp market is expected to oscillate moderately and move upward slightly. The support factors include continuous foreign price hikes, the recovery of downstream demand, and the possible de - stocking of port inventory. The restrictive factors are the high inventory of softwood pulp and the delayed recovery of cultural paper demand [50]. 3.3.2 Pulp Futures Strategy Analysis - Unilateral: Adopt a low - level long - buying strategy. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell SP2605 - P - 5200 [51]. 3.3.3 Double - Offset Paper Fundamental Analysis - In March, the double - offset paper market is expected to remain "weakly stable with marginal improvement". The positive factors are the marginal recovery of downstream demand and the support of pulp prices. The negative factors are the high inventory and the "low - price order - grabbing" by small and medium - sized paper mills [52]. 3.3.4 Double - Offset Paper Strategy Analysis - Unilateral: Adopt a high - level short - selling strategy and pay attention to the post - Spring Festival resumption of work. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Pay attention to the opportunity to sell call options [55].