1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view presented in the given content 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices and Changes - DCE01 dropped from 806.5 to 762.5, a decrease of 44.0; DCE05 fell from 812.0 to 794.0, a decline of 18.0; DCE09 decreased from 793.5 to 776.5, a drop of 17.0 [2] - The optimal delivery product is Carajás fines, with a price of 848, a 01-factory basis of 34, a 05-factory basis of 28, and a 09-factory basis of 47 [2] - Most spot iron ore prices decreased by 1 yuan per ton, while Carajás fines and KUMBA remained unchanged [2] Price Spreads and Import Profits - The spread between Carajás fines and PB fines increased by 1 to 81; the spread between Newman fines and Jimbob fines remained at 43 [2] - Import profits of most iron ore varieties increased, such as Carajás fines increasing by 4 to -1; Newman fines rising by 3 to 60 [2] Index Changes - The Platts 61% iron ore price decreased from 106.5 to 105.9, a drop of 0.5; the Platts 65% price fell from 122.2 to 121.7, a decline of 0.5; the Platts 58% price decreased from 96.0 to 95.5, a drop of 0.5 [2] - The difference between SGX main contract and DCE01 increased by 2.9 to 2.8; the difference between SGX main contract and DCE05 decreased by 0.3 to 2.1; the difference between SGX main contract and DCE09 decreased by 0.4 to 4.5 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn report is bearish, but the global corn supply pressure is weakening, and US corn has stabilized and rebounded. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2,142 yuan. The FOB price at northern ports has declined, while the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is relatively strong. The supply of corn in North China has decreased due to weather, leading to a rise in the spot price and an expansion of the price difference between Northeast and North China corn. The domestic aquaculture demand remains stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The short - term corn spot is relatively stable, and the market is currently concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [2][5]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the Shandong corn spot price has risen, and the Northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are still strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is also strong, and enterprise losses have intensified. It is expected that the short - term 03 starch futures will fluctuate at a high level [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk Data**: For example, the closing price of CS2601 is 2,241, down 41 with a decline rate of 1.83%; the trading volume is 576, an increase of 14,300.00%; the open interest is 428. Different contracts have different price, trading volume, and open - interest changes [1]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: In terms of corn, the prices in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, and Zhucheng Xingmao are 2,150, 2,200, and 2,350 yuan respectively, with corresponding price changes. For starch, the prices of enterprises such as Longfeng, COFCO, and Yihai (Heilongjiang) are 2,730, 2,700, and 2,700 yuan respectively, with corresponding price changes. There are also data on basis, spreads between different contracts, and cross - variety spreads [1]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn report is bearish, but the supply pressure is weakening. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The northern port FOB price has declined, while the Northeast corn price is strong. The North China corn price has risen due to reduced supply. The wheat - to - corn price difference is large, and corn has cost - effectiveness. The domestic aquaculture demand is stable, and the downstream feed enterprise inventory has increased. The short - term corn spot is relatively stable, and the market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and downstream inventory - building [2][5]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the Shandong corn price has risen, and the Northeast starch price is stable. The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are strong, and the corn - starch spot price difference is low. The starch spot price is strong, and enterprise losses have intensified. It is expected that the short - term 03 starch futures will fluctuate at a high level [6]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Short - sell 03 corn with a light position and short - sell 03 starch at high prices [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Start reverse arbitrage for 35 starch [9]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Use a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [10]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple graphs, such as the northern port corn FOB price graph, corn 05 contract basis graph, corn 5 - 9 spread graph, corn starch 5 - 9 spread graph, corn starch 05 contract basis graph, and corn starch 05 contract spread graph, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different indicators [13][14][18].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil Daily Report [1] - Date: January 19, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03113636 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018817 [2] Group 2: Market Information - Spot Prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3260 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3150 yuan (-20), Shanghai Angang hot rolled coil is 3290 yuan (-10), Tianjin Hegang hot rolled coil is 3190 yuan (-10) [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Core View - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile before the Spring Festival, but may fluctuate due to market sentiment. The recent decline in macro - sentiment may put pressure on steel prices [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Market sentiment has weakened, with a possible short - term slight correction and a continued volatile and weak trend [5] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7] Group 4: Important Information - China's industrial added value of large - scale industries in December increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a previous value of 4.80% and an expected value of 5% [8] - China's year - to - date urban fixed - asset investment in December decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with an expected value of - 3% and a previous value of - 2.60% [9] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report contains multiple figures showing various indicators such as rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits from 2022 to 2026 [14][16][18]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 19 日 F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： 内蒙古 宁夏 广西 天津 江苏 内蒙古 - -120 100 0 70 宁夏 - - 220 -70 190 广西 - - - -100 -30 天津 - - - - 70 硅锰 :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5548 | -22 | -150 | 114689 | -89005 | 219779 | 9822 | | SM主力合约 | 5808 | -20 | -122 | 123290 | -62382 | 228834 | -2102 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Date: January 19, 2026 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 8,265.65, up 0.40%. The trading volume was 32,669 lots, down 7%, and the trading value was 58.17 billion yuan, down 8% [4]. - The main contract IM2603 rose 0.26% to close at 8,186.6 points. The trading volume was 123,630 lots, down 12%, and the trading value was 20.31 billion yuan, down 12%. The open interest was 195,201 lots, down 5,800 lots [4]. 2.2 Overall Trading and Position - The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 206,367 lots, down 11,966 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 380,256 lots, up 1,234 lots [5]. 2.3 Basis and Annualized Basis Rate - The main contract was at a discount of 79.05 points to the spot, 25.52 points lower than the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -5.78% [5]. 2.4 Main Seats' Positions - In IM2602, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 41,544 lots, down 10,429 lots. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) had the most with 26,627 lots, down 554 lots. For short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) led with 34,089 lots, down 202 lots [15]. 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,734.46, up 0.05%. The trading volume was 26,761 lots, down 18%, and the trading value was 65.51 billion yuan, down 17% [20]. - The main contract IF2603 rose 0.2% to close at 4,728.6 points. The trading volume was 73,045 lots, down 18%, and the trading value was 10.37 billion yuan, down 19%. The open interest was 179,134 lots, down 8,290 lots [20]. 3.2 Overall Trading and Position - The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 120,242 lots, down 18,138 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 290,666 lots, down 4,289 lots [21]. 3.3 Basis and Annualized Basis Rate - The main contract was at a discount of 5.86 points to the spot, 2.81 points higher than the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -0.74% [21]. 3.4 Main Seats' Positions - In IF2602, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 8,889 lots, down 1,576 lots. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) had the most with 7,957 lots, down 536 lots. For short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) led with 7,649 lots, down 402 lots [34]. 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 8,287.95, up 0.67%. The trading volume was 26,150 lots, down 7%, and the trading value was 56.09 billion yuan, down 9% [39]. - The main contract IC2603 rose 0.82% to close at 8,266 points. The trading volume was 98,224 lots, down 4%, and the trading value was 16.25 billion yuan, down 4%. The open interest was 177,228 lots, up 2,736 lots [39]. 4.2 Overall Trading and Position - The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 166,526 lots, down 3,994 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 319,424 lots, up 6,196 lots [40]. 4.3 Basis and Annualized Basis Rate - The main contract was at a discount of 21.95 points to the spot, 0.32 points higher than the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -1.59% [40]. 4.4 Main Seats' Positions - In IC2602, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 36,529 lots, down 4,559 lots. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) had the most with 24,786 lots, up 707 lots. For short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) led with 27,507 lots, up 970 lots [52]. 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 3,075.94, down 0.12%. The trading volume was 5,587 lots, down 23%, and the trading value was 16.62 billion yuan, down 17% [58]. - The main contract IH2603 fell 0.11% to close at 3,077.6 points. The trading volume was 30,016 lots, down 24%, and the trading value was 2.78 billion yuan, down 25%. The open interest was 57,249 lots, down 1,653 lots [58]. 5.2 Overall Trading and Position - The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 46,533 lots, down 11,922 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 91,413 lots, down 1,610 lots [58]. 5.3 Basis and Annualized Basis Rate - The main contract was at a premium of 1.66 points to the spot, 2.98 points lower than the previous day. The annualized basis rate was 0.32% [59]. 5.4 Main Seats' Positions - In IH2602, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 10,010 lots, down 2,507 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the most with 6,547 lots, down 257 lots. For short positions, GF Futures (on behalf of clients) led with 10,937 lots, up 181 lots [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous sector has seen a general decline due to the correction of precious metals and copper, but the medium - to - long - term trend remains upward. The cyclical upward trend of non - ferrous metals may have begun, and the industry trend is positive in the medium - to - long - term [6]. - For nickel, it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy after the correction stabilizes, and sell out - of - the - money put options for options trading [5][6]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, passively following the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level, reaching 351,000 tons, with an increase of 3,406 tons this week. Domestic social inventory increased by 2,464 tons, and LME inventory increased by 942 tons. After the New Year's resumption of production, the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel has declined from a high level [11][12]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social inventory of stainless steel is decreasing, and warehouse receipts are at a low level [14]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Nickel - **Supply**: In 2025, the cumulative output of refined nickel increased by 17% year - on - year to 392,700 tons. In January, high nickel prices are expected to further boost production. From January to November 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 48,900 tons, compared with a net export of 24,800 tons in the same period last year. Due to the opening of the import window at the end of December, net imports are expected to increase in January. From January to November 2025, the domestic refined nickel supply was 410,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48% [22]. - **Demand**: It is the off - season for electroplating and alloy consumption. From January to December, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. Electroplating consumption decreased seasonally, while alloy consumption increased slightly, and overall consumption slowed down [23][25]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: In January 2026, the second - round domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore increased significantly month - on - month. On January 14, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources confirmed that the target production of nickel ore in 2026 would be reduced to 250 - 260 million tons from 364 million tons in 2025. The price of Indonesian ferronickel increased, and profits were slightly repaired. The FOB price of medium - and high - grade nickel ore from the Philippines also increased [27]. - **NPI**: The price of NPI has recovered, and the profit margin has been slightly repaired. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia is expected to increase [28]. - **Chromium Series**: The price of chromium series products has started to rise. Zimbabwe will impose a 10% tax on the export of chromium series products starting from January 1, 2026, which has led to a continuous rebound in the price of chromium ore [33][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: Estimated cold - rolling cash cost is around 14,200 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reaches 13,700 yuan/ton [43]. - **Supply**: It is expected that the crude steel production of stainless steel in China and Indonesia in 2025 will be 45.06 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4%. Due to the shortage of hot - rolled products in January, the production schedule of steel mills may be revised downward [45][52]. - **Demand**: The production of shipbuilding plates increased by 29% year - on - year from January to November, providing support. However, the growth rate of other terminal fields is not optimistic, especially the real estate transaction volume has decreased significantly year - on - year [53][54]. 3.2.3 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2% respectively, with a penetration rate of 47.9%, 7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the sales volume in 2026 will be 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. From January 1 - 11, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the domestic market decreased by 38% year - on - year and 67% month - on - month. The production of power cells increased by 41.9% year - on - year to 124.55 GWh from January to December. In January, the decline in power battery production due to poor vehicle sales may be smoothed by the boost of pre - export caused by the reduction of export tax rebates [56][59]. - **Global Market**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 18.39 million. In Europe, the cumulative sales from January to November increased by 29.2% year - on - year to 3.434 million, while in the US, it increased by 0.7% year - on - year to 1.39 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to December 2025 reached 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103% [60][63]. 3.2.4 Nickel Sulfate Market - **Production**: In 2025, the production of nickel sulfate in China decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons. The production of ternary precursors increased by 6% year - on - year to 903,000 tons, and the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 19% year - on - year to 686,000 tons. In January, the demand for nickel sulfate slowed down, but the price followed the strengthening of refined nickel [64][65]. - **Raw Materials**: In 2025, the production of MHP in Indonesia increased by 41% year - on - year to 444,000 tons, while the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 18% year - on - year to 224,000 tons. The increase in sulfur prices led to an increase in the cost of MHP, but the good demand for nickel sulfate boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated production recovery [67][72].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the supply of logs is tightening, with spot prices remaining stable with a slight upward trend. The current log valuation shows a north - south differentiation pattern. The price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and investors are recommended to go long near the previous low. Attention should also be paid to the 03 - 05 reverse spread of logs, while options should be on the sidelines [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: On the supply side, New Zealand's log shipments to China decreased by 210,000 cubic meters week - on - week due to the Christmas holiday but are expected to return to normal next week. China's port arrivals increased by 8% to 411,000 cubic meters, with concentrated arrivals in Shandong and limited arrivals in the South. Total inventory increased slightly by 0.75%, with inventory accumulating in the North and supply in the South remaining tight. On the demand side, the daily average outbound volume increased slightly by 1.77%, showing a strong - weak differentiation in overall demand [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The current log valuation shows a north - south differentiation. The price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/cubic meter, supported by tight supply and factory winter storage, while the price in Shandong remained flat due to concentrated supply and inventory accumulation. The cost of the current round of ship - received logs has decreased, but there is an expectation of an increase in the February foreign quotation. The price of downstream wood squares in Shandong decreased, while that in Jiangsu remained stable. In the short term, the valuation fluctuates with regional supply - demand differentiation and may stabilize next week to absorb the increase [7]. - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, investors should go long near the previous low as log prices are stable with a slight upward trend. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 03 - 05 reverse spread of logs. For options, stay on the sidelines [8]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Log Supply**: In the week of January 10 - 16, 2026, New Zealand's direct shipments to China decreased by 210,000 cubic meters week - on - week. From the cumulative data of the past 4 weeks, the shipments decreased compared with the same period last month. However, next week's shipments from New Zealand ports are expected to return to normal. From January 12 - 18, 2026, the number of pre - arriving ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 18% week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 8% [18]. - **Log Inventory**: As of January 9, the total domestic log inventory increased by 0.75% week - on - week. The inventory of radiata pine, North American timber, and spruce/fir changed by 0.44%, 20.00%, and - 7.14% respectively. In terms of provincial inventories, the inventories of Shandong, Jiangsu, Fujian, and Hebei all increased [21]. - **Log Demand**: As of January 9, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports increased by 1.77% week - on - week. The outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 3.46% week - on - week, while that in Jiangsu increased by 8.29%. As of January 13, the sample construction site funds availability rate increased slightly, with the increase mainly driven by housing construction projects [25]. - **Log Price**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained flat week - on - week and decreased by 7.50% year - on - year. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port increased by 2.74% week - on - week and decreased by 7.41% year - on - year. The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general spruce logs at Rizhao Port in Shandong remained flat week - on - week and increased by 10.48% year - on - year [32]. - **Downstream Wood Square Price**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine wood squares as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1200 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market is 1260 yuan/cubic meter. For 3000*40*90 white pine wood squares, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan/cubic meter [35]. - **Imported Log Cost**: As of January 5, 2026, the January foreign quotation (CFR) range of New Zealand radiata pine logs is 109 - 112 US dollars/JAS square, with the main price at 110 US dollars/JAS square, a decrease of 2 US dollars/JAS square compared with December [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The paper pulp market continues to have a supply - demand imbalance with stable imports, a slight increase in domestic broad - leaf pulp output, a decrease in chemimechanical pulp, rising port inventories, and weak downstream demand [6]. - The offset paper market is in a weak supply - demand balance, with a slight decrease in production, low user purchasing enthusiasm, and an increase in enterprise inventory [6]. - The paper pulp valuation shows a differentiated and volatile trend, and the offset paper valuation is at a low level with increasing losses per ton [6]. - Trading strategies include short - selling SP2505, shorting OP2502, paying attention to the SP3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity, keeping a wait - and - see attitude for SP options, and selling OP2602 - C - 4200 for OP options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - The paper pulp market has an oversupply situation. The import volume on the supply side is stable, the output of domestic broad - leaf pulp increases slightly to 25.2 tons, and the chemimechanical pulp output decreases by 0.2 tons. Port inventories rise to 201.4 tons. Downstream demand is weak overall, with a decrease in the output of tissue paper and coated paper, and a narrow increase in the output of white cardboard and offset paper [6]. - The offset paper market is in a weak supply - demand balance. The output is 20.3 tons with a slight decrease, the capacity utilization rate is 52.0%. The demand is dominated by social orders, user purchasing enthusiasm is low, the shipment volume decreases by 1.0%, and enterprise inventory increases slightly by 0.4% to 140.3 tons [6]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, adopt a short - selling strategy for SP2505 and a bearish operation for OP2502 [6]. - For arbitrage, pay attention to the SP3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [6]. - For options, keep a wait - and - see attitude for SP options and sell OP2602 - C - 4200 for OP options [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Offset Paper - **Supply**: The current production of domestic offset paper decreases slightly. The output is 20.3 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons (0.5% decline) from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate drops to 52.0%. The weekly average profit is - 527.7 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin drops by 0.5 percentage points [10]. - **Inventory**: The current inventory of offset paper production enterprises is 140.3 tons, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. It is expected that the inventory will continue to rise in the next period [14]. 3.2.2 Coated Paper - **Supply**: The current production of domestic coated paper decreases slightly. The output is 8.3 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons (1.2% decline) from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate drops to 61.6%. The weekly average profit is - 58.9 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin drops by 0.4 percentage points [17]. - **Inventory**: The current inventory of coated paper production enterprises is 37.7 tons, a 1.1% increase from the previous period. It is expected that the inventory will increase slightly in the next period [21]. 3.2.3 Domestic Pulp - **Supply**: The sample output of Chinese broad - leaf pulp is 25.2 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons from the previous week. The sample output of chemimechanical pulp is 23.7 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons from the previous period. The production profit of domestic broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable, and the overall profitability is better than that of chemimechanical pulp [24]. 3.2.4 Wood Pulp - **Supply**: The market average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp remains flat at 2575 yuan/ton, and the production profit is at a low level. As of January 15, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports is 201.4 tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period [27]. 3.2.5 Pulp Demand - **Tissue Paper**: The current supply of domestic tissue paper raw paper decreases slightly. The output of sample paper enterprises is 29.30 tons, a 0.10% decrease from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate is 68.06%. As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory is 63.09 tons, a 0.21% increase from the previous period, and the inventory days increase by 0.20% [31]. - **White Cardboard**: The current output of white cardboard increases. The output is 38.4 tons, a 0.26% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate is 80.67%. The production plant inventory is 107.5 tons, a 1.90% increase from the previous period. It is expected that the inventory will remain stable in the next period [35]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Offset Paper and Coated Paper Prices - The average enterprise price of offset paper is stable. The tax - included average price of 70g offset paper is 4642.9 yuan/ton. The price range of 70g natural - white offset paper is 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton, and that of 70g high - white offset paper is 4700 - 4900 yuan/ton [43]. - The average enterprise price of coated paper is stable. The tax - included average price of 157g coated paper is 4975.0 yuan/ton, and the price range of 157g flat - sheet coated paper is 4700 - 4900 yuan/ton [43]. 3.3.2 Various Pulp Prices - The spot tax - included average price of softwood pulp is 5542 yuan/ton, a 0.3% decrease from the previous period [48]. - The spot tax - included average price of hardwood pulp is 4727 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase from the previous period, but the daily price shows a downward trend during the week [48]. - The spot tax - included average price of chemimechanical pulp is 3800 yuan/ton, remaining flat from the previous period [48]. - The spot tax - included average price of unbleached pulp is 5029 yuan/ton, a 1.53% decrease from the previous period [48].

政策面转向 金银承压 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 贵金属基本面数据追踪 13 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 政策面转向 金银承压 ◼【综合分析】 宏观面：上周金银市场宏观环境呈现多空交织格局，地缘政治风险和政策面的变化成为主导因素，数据的影响则偏小。前半周，美国对伊朗态度持续 升级，特朗普政府威胁对伊朗采取军事行动，并宣布任何与伊朗做生意的国家将面临25%关税，中东紧张局势持续发酵，推动市场避险情绪高涨。与 此同时，美国司法机构对美联储主席鲍威尔启动刑事调查，引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧，进一步加剧了市场波动，持续驱动金银续刷历史新高。 但周四、周五市场发生重要转向，特朗普政府于1月15日突然宣布暂缓对关键矿产进口加征新关税，尽管并 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for polysilicon is to "observe range-bound fluctuations and focus on actual spot transaction prices." - The investment rating for industrial silicon is to "sell short at the upper end of the range" [1]. Core Views of the Report - For polysilicon, Tongwei Co., Ltd. will halt all production next week, and GCL Technology will significantly reduce production this month. It is expected that polysilicon output in January will drop below 90,000 tons. From April, export tax rebates for photovoltaic products other than photovoltaic cells will be removed, which may lead to a rush to export silicon wafers, cells, and modules from January to March. Polysilicon inventory is expected to decrease in January. The spot market is cautious, and large - scale spot transactions have yet to occur. After the 20th, there may be bulk transactions, and the spot transaction price will be the core guide for the market. The actual transaction price of polysilicon dense material this month is expected to be in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and the futures price reference range is (45,000, 55,000). Trading volume is low in the short term, with high volatility, so participation should be cautious [4]. - For industrial silicon, demand is weak due to organic silicon production cuts, seasonal decline in aluminum alloy operating rates, and reduced monthly polysilicon output. There are no short - term production cut plans for industrial silicon manufacturers, resulting in a slight supply - demand surplus. The cost of industrial silicon is basically stable. The commodity market's bullish sentiment is fading, and industrial silicon, with a weak fundamental outlook, may decline in a volatile manner, with a price range reference of (8,000, 8,800) [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - Supply - demand situation: Production cuts by major companies will reduce output, and potential export rush may lead to inventory reduction. - Trading strategy: Adopt range - bound trading, with low trading volume and cautious participation. There are no current arbitrage or option strategies [4][5]. Industrial Silicon - Supply - demand situation: Weak demand from downstream industries and a slight supply - demand surplus. - Trading strategy: Sell short at the upper end of the range, sell out - of - the - money call options, and there are no current arbitrage strategies [7][8]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking Market Performance - This week, industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices changed little. Manufacturers had low shipment volumes and no large - scale hedging [11]. Downstream Demand - DMC weekly output was 43,600 tons, a 0.91% week - on - week decrease; polysilicon weekly output was 22,000 tons, a 13.27% week - on - week decrease; primary aluminum alloy operating rate was 58.6%, a 0.6 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 58.4%, unchanged from the previous week [7][14]. Production - This week, industrial silicon weekly output was 78,400 tons, a 2.82% week - on - week decrease. The total number of open furnaces was 222, a decrease of 6 from the previous week. Tongwei Co., Ltd. will cut production of 8 submerged arc furnaces for its industrial silicon capacity, with 6 already cut this week [24]. Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory was 555,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,700 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 210,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,200 tons. Downstream raw material inventory was 233,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons [26]. Product Prices - This week, industrial silicon spot prices remained stable, as did DMC and terminal product prices [32][36]. Intermediate and Related Product Data - The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates decreased slightly, while the price and operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly [42][46]. Raw Material Prices - This week, industrial silicon raw material prices remained stable [50]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking Price Trends - This week, the prices of some polysilicon, cells, and modules increased [55]. Component Data - From April 2026, export tax rebates for photovoltaic components will be removed, which may lead to a rush to export from January to March. It is expected that component production scheduling in January will increase to around 40GW. European component inventory has increased to 31.3GW, and domestic manufacturers' component inventory is 30GW, at a moderately low level [63]. Cell Data - Export tax rebates for photovoltaic cells will be reduced and then removed in 2027. It is expected that cell production scheduling in January will increase to around 48GW [64]. Silicon Wafer Data - Current silicon wafer inventory has decreased to 24.78GW. With the cancellation of export tax rebates in sync with components, there is still demand for silicon wafer exports. Silicon wafer production scheduling in January may increase to 50GW [70]. Polysilicon Data - This week, polysilicon output decreased slightly, and factory inventory increased to 320,000 tons. In January, GCL Technology will lower its operating rate, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. will halt production. Polysilicon output this month will drop below 90,000 tons [75].