Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Galaxy Futures' Agricultural Products R & D Report - Fats and Oils Daily Report [1][5][12][17] - Report date: January 19, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean oil**: The 2605 closing price was 7996, down 20. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8516, 8566, and 8386 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 570, 520, and 390 respectively, with no change [2]. - **Palm oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8648, down 26. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8618, 8628, and 8768 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30, -20, and 120 respectively, with no change [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8902, down 161. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9552, 9502. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 650, and 600 respectively, with no change [2]. Monthly Spread Closing Prices - **Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread**: 120, down 10 [2]. - **Palm oil 5 - 9 spread**: 26, up 14 [2]. - **Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread**: -21, down 74 [2]. Cross - Variety Spreads - **Y - P 05 contract**: -652, up 6 [2]. - **OI - Y 05 contract**: 906, no change in the reported movement [2]. - **OI - P 05 contract**: 254, down 135 [2]. - **Oil - meal ratio**: 2.93, down 0.01 [2]. Import Profits - **24 - degree palm oil**: The盘面 profit for Malaysia & Indonesia was -177, with a CNF price of 1057 for the 2 - month ship - period [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The盘面 profit for Rotterdam was -1133, with an FOB price of 1025 for the 2 - month ship - period [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventory (in 10,000 tons) - **Soybean oil**: 72.7 this week, 102.5 last week, 108.1 last year [2]. - **Palm oil**: 73.6 this week, 48.2 last year [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: 25.1 this week, 27.3 last week, 50.6 last year [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The new China - Canada economic and trade agreement is a positive development for Canadian canola growers, but key details need to be clarified. There is hope for improved market access after months of interruption. Ross Burtnak welcomes the potential reduction of canola seed tariffs and the cancellation of rapeseed meal tariffs, but is unsure about canola oil and needs further information [4]. Domestic Market - **Palm oil**: As of January 16, 2026 (week 3), the national key - area commercial inventory was 74.61 tons, up 1.01 tons (1.37%) from last week. It is at a slightly above - average level in the same period historically. The origin's quotes are stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 200. There was a reported purchase of 1 ship of palm oil. The basis is stable. In the short - term, it lacks a clear driver, with slow de - stocking expected under high inventory, and the high inventory will persist. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [4][6]. - **Soybean oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 199.42 tons, with an operating rate of 54.86%, an increase from the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area commercial inventory was 96.33 tons, down 6.18 tons (6.03%) from last week. It is at a relatively high level in the same period historically. The basis is stable. Downstream demand has no bright spots. As soybean arrivals decrease and soybean crushing declines, the inventory may slightly decrease, but overall supply is sufficient. In the short - term, it lacks a clear driver and is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Due to the improvement in China - Canada relations, rapeseed from Canada is expected to enter the domestic market, and the rapeseed oil futures price fell by more than 1% today. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory was exhausted. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 25.1 tons, down 2.2 tons from last week, at a neutral level in the same period historically, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote is stable at around $1030, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1100. The domestic available rapeseed oil supply is tight, and traders are still holding prices. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may cause the rapeseed oil market to fluctuate weakly. However, considering the time needed for rapeseed purchases to arrive after March and the expected release of the US biodiesel final plan in March, which is positive for soybean oil and rapeseed oil, the decline of near - month rapeseed oil contracts may be limited [7]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral trading**: In the short - term, the fats and oils market fluctuates with increased volatility, but there are many uncertain factors and no prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing the spot basis of different oils, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][18][22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of peanuts is expected to be relatively stable in the short term, with the futures price of peanuts continuing to fluctuate at the bottom. The market is trading on the low import cost of Senegalese peanuts, but the cost of warehouse receipts is still expected to be relatively high. The 05 peanut contract will fluctuate at the bottom, and the supply of oil peanuts is still abundant [3][6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: PK604 closed at 7842, up 36 or 0.46%, with a trading volume of 28,969 (up 1.48%) and an open interest of 29,326 (down 2.35%); PK610 closed at 8206, up 34 or 0.41%, with a trading volume of 174 (down 45.79%) and an open interest of 2,764 (up 1.10%); PK601 data was invalid [1]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7400, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with price changes of 0, -400, and -400. The basis was -442, 158, and 158. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil were 3250, 3100, 14320, and 8380 respectively, with no price changes. The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8600 with no change [1]. - **Spreads**: The PK04 - PK10 spread was -364, up 2 [1]. Second Part: Market Analysis - **Peanut Prices**: Peanut prices in Henan were stable, while those in Northeast China were relatively strong. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.55 yuan/jin, stable; the price in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.6 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, stable; the price in Junan, Shandong was 3.5 yuan/jin, stable. The import prices of Sudanese refined peanuts, Brazilian new peanuts, and Indian specification peanuts were stable [3]. - **Peanut Oil and By - products**: The purchase prices of some peanut oil mills were stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 6900 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 7780 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable. The price of domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was 14300 yuan/ton, and the market price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton. The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal was stable at 3090 yuan/ton, and the short - term price of peanut meal was relatively strong, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3100 yuan/ton [3][4]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Go short - term long on the 05 peanut contract when the price is low [7]. - **Calendar Spread**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Sell the pk603 - P - 8200 option when the price is high [9]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The attachments include six figures showing the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the压榨 profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 4 - 10 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [11][17][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market has been in a weak and volatile state recently, with the market continuously debating the future decline rate of freight rates and the intensity of the Q1 rush shipment. The spot freight rate is in the process of reaching its peak and then falling back. Although the rush shipment due to export tax rebates may delay the decline, it is difficult to reverse the downward trend. The 04 contract shows a discount, and attention should be paid to the subsequent Q1 rush shipment intensity. The spot settlement price remains high, mainly because most ships were delayed in January, and it is expected that the index will gradually decline in the future [5]. - The inflection point of the spot freight rate has emerged, and attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation. From a fundamental perspective, the cargo volume is gradually entering the range of reaching its peak and then falling back. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 ports in Northern Europe in January, February, and March is 303,100 TEU, 253,000 TEU, and 268,800 TEU respectively, with little overall change compared to last week. From a traditional seasonal perspective, freight rates gradually enter the off - season from February to March. After the policy of canceling export tax rebates for most commodities from April 1st, a phased rush shipment is expected, but there are still differences in the market regarding the intensity of the rush shipment. Geopolitically, the far - month market is still suppressed by the resumption of navigation, but the overall resumption of navigation in the European line is expected to be difficult in the first half of the year [6]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to many disturbances and differences in the intensity of the rush shipment. For arbitrage, it is advisable to enter the 6 - 10 positive spread position in batches at low prices [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 were 1,714.3, 1,132.2, 1,318.0, 1,459.0, 1,054.1, and 1,300.0 respectively, with changes of +3.8 (+0.22%), +11.2 (+1.00%), +6.8 (+0.52%), - 6.6 (-0.45%), - 1.0 (-0.09%), and +10.0 (+0.78%) respectively. The trading volumes were 1,999.0, 30,559.0, 2,329.0, 121.0, 1,410, and 40 respectively, with changes of - 17.84%, - 38.53%, - 43.70%, - 72.99%, - 34.42%, and - 38.46% respectively. The open interests were 6,439.0, 41,888.0, 4,200.0, 1,366.0, 8,186, and 122 respectively, with changes of - 15.03%, - 1.75%, +11.11%, - 1.37%, +3.12%, and +1.67% respectively [3]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: For example, the spread of EC02 - EC04 was 582, with a change of - 7.4; the spread of EC04 - EC06 was - 186, with a change of +4.4 [3]. 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line index was 1,954.19, with a week - on - week change of - 0.11% and a year - on - year change of - 29.89%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1,305.27, with a week - on - week change of - 1.41% and a year - on - year change of - 46.68%. Different routes of the SCFI also showed various changes, such as the Shanghai - Europe route at 1,676 USD/TEU, with a week - on - week change of - 2.50% and a year - on - year change of - 41.21% [3]. 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month was 59.46 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week change of +0.32% and a year - on - year change of - 23.68%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was 63.44 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week change of +0.36% and a year - on - year change of - 20.7% [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - The market is debating the future decline rate of freight rates and the intensity of the Q1 rush shipment. The spot freight rate is at the peak - to - decline stage, and the rush shipment due to export tax rebates may delay the decline but is difficult to reverse the trend. The 04 contract shows a discount. The spot settlement price is high because of ship delays in January, and the index is expected to decline [5]. - The inflection point of the spot freight rate has emerged. The cargo volume is reaching its peak and then falling back. The supply of shipping capacity has little change. From a seasonal perspective, the off - season is from February to March, but the export tax rebate cancellation policy may lead to a phased rush shipment. There are differences in the market regarding the intensity of the rush shipment. Geopolitically, the far - month market is suppressed by the resumption of navigation, but the large - scale resumption of the European line is difficult in the first half of the year [6]. 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term due to many disturbances and differences in the intensity of the rush shipment [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Enter the 6 - 10 positive spread position in batches at low prices [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Canada will reduce tariffs on some Chinese electric vehicles, allowing up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market with a 6.1% most - favored - nation tariff rate, and the quota will increase annually [10]. - The US is preparing for an attack on Iran [11]. - US President Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all goods exported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland to the US from February 1st, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% from June 1st until an agreement on "fully and completely purchasing Greenland" is reached. The EU will hold an emergency meeting, and some EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods exported to the EU [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view presented in the given content 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices and Changes - DCE01 dropped from 806.5 to 762.5, a decrease of 44.0; DCE05 fell from 812.0 to 794.0, a decline of 18.0; DCE09 decreased from 793.5 to 776.5, a drop of 17.0 [2] - The optimal delivery product is Carajás fines, with a price of 848, a 01-factory basis of 34, a 05-factory basis of 28, and a 09-factory basis of 47 [2] - Most spot iron ore prices decreased by 1 yuan per ton, while Carajás fines and KUMBA remained unchanged [2] Price Spreads and Import Profits - The spread between Carajás fines and PB fines increased by 1 to 81; the spread between Newman fines and Jimbob fines remained at 43 [2] - Import profits of most iron ore varieties increased, such as Carajás fines increasing by 4 to -1; Newman fines rising by 3 to 60 [2] Index Changes - The Platts 61% iron ore price decreased from 106.5 to 105.9, a drop of 0.5; the Platts 65% price fell from 122.2 to 121.7, a decline of 0.5; the Platts 58% price decreased from 96.0 to 95.5, a drop of 0.5 [2] - The difference between SGX main contract and DCE01 increased by 2.9 to 2.8; the difference between SGX main contract and DCE05 decreased by 0.3 to 2.1; the difference between SGX main contract and DCE09 decreased by 0.4 to 4.5 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn report is bearish, but the global corn supply pressure is weakening, and US corn has stabilized and rebounded. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2,142 yuan. The FOB price at northern ports has declined, while the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is relatively strong. The supply of corn in North China has decreased due to weather, leading to a rise in the spot price and an expansion of the price difference between Northeast and North China corn. The domestic aquaculture demand remains stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The short - term corn spot is relatively stable, and the market is currently concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [2][5]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the Shandong corn spot price has risen, and the Northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are still strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is also strong, and enterprise losses have intensified. It is expected that the short - term 03 starch futures will fluctuate at a high level [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk Data**: For example, the closing price of CS2601 is 2,241, down 41 with a decline rate of 1.83%; the trading volume is 576, an increase of 14,300.00%; the open interest is 428. Different contracts have different price, trading volume, and open - interest changes [1]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: In terms of corn, the prices in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, and Zhucheng Xingmao are 2,150, 2,200, and 2,350 yuan respectively, with corresponding price changes. For starch, the prices of enterprises such as Longfeng, COFCO, and Yihai (Heilongjiang) are 2,730, 2,700, and 2,700 yuan respectively, with corresponding price changes. There are also data on basis, spreads between different contracts, and cross - variety spreads [1]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn report is bearish, but the supply pressure is weakening. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The northern port FOB price has declined, while the Northeast corn price is strong. The North China corn price has risen due to reduced supply. The wheat - to - corn price difference is large, and corn has cost - effectiveness. The domestic aquaculture demand is stable, and the downstream feed enterprise inventory has increased. The short - term corn spot is relatively stable, and the market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and downstream inventory - building [2][5]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the Shandong corn price has risen, and the Northeast starch price is stable. The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. By - product prices are strong, and the corn - starch spot price difference is low. The starch spot price is strong, and enterprise losses have intensified. It is expected that the short - term 03 starch futures will fluctuate at a high level [6]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Short - sell 03 corn with a light position and short - sell 03 starch at high prices [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Start reverse arbitrage for 35 starch [9]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Use a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [10]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include multiple graphs, such as the northern port corn FOB price graph, corn 05 contract basis graph, corn 5 - 9 spread graph, corn starch 5 - 9 spread graph, corn starch 05 contract basis graph, and corn starch 05 contract spread graph, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different indicators [13][14][18].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil Daily Report [1] - Date: January 19, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03113636 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018817 [2] Group 2: Market Information - Spot Prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3260 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3150 yuan (-20), Shanghai Angang hot rolled coil is 3290 yuan (-10), Tianjin Hegang hot rolled coil is 3190 yuan (-10) [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Core View - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile before the Spring Festival, but may fluctuate due to market sentiment. The recent decline in macro - sentiment may put pressure on steel prices [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Market sentiment has weakened, with a possible short - term slight correction and a continued volatile and weak trend [5] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7] Group 4: Important Information - China's industrial added value of large - scale industries in December increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a previous value of 4.80% and an expected value of 5% [8] - China's year - to - date urban fixed - asset investment in December decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with an expected value of - 3% and a previous value of - 2.60% [9] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report contains multiple figures showing various indicators such as rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits from 2022 to 2026 [14][16][18]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 19 日 F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： 内蒙古 宁夏 广西 天津 江苏 内蒙古 - -120 100 0 70 宁夏 - - 220 -70 190 广西 - - - -100 -30 天津 - - - - 70 硅锰 :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5548 | -22 | -150 | 114689 | -89005 | 219779 | 9822 | | SM主力合约 | 5808 | -20 | -122 | 123290 | -62382 | 228834 | -2102 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Date: January 19, 2026 [2] 2. IM Futures 2.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 8,265.65, up 0.40%. The trading volume was 32,669 lots, down 7%, and the trading value was 58.17 billion yuan, down 8% [4]. - The main contract IM2603 rose 0.26% to close at 8,186.6 points. The trading volume was 123,630 lots, down 12%, and the trading value was 20.31 billion yuan, down 12%. The open interest was 195,201 lots, down 5,800 lots [4]. 2.2 Overall Trading and Position - The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 206,367 lots, down 11,966 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 380,256 lots, up 1,234 lots [5]. 2.3 Basis and Annualized Basis Rate - The main contract was at a discount of 79.05 points to the spot, 25.52 points lower than the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -5.78% [5]. 2.4 Main Seats' Positions - In IM2602, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 41,544 lots, down 10,429 lots. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) had the most with 26,627 lots, down 554 lots. For short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) led with 34,089 lots, down 202 lots [15]. 3. IF Futures 3.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,734.46, up 0.05%. The trading volume was 26,761 lots, down 18%, and the trading value was 65.51 billion yuan, down 17% [20]. - The main contract IF2603 rose 0.2% to close at 4,728.6 points. The trading volume was 73,045 lots, down 18%, and the trading value was 10.37 billion yuan, down 19%. The open interest was 179,134 lots, down 8,290 lots [20]. 3.2 Overall Trading and Position - The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 120,242 lots, down 18,138 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 290,666 lots, down 4,289 lots [21]. 3.3 Basis and Annualized Basis Rate - The main contract was at a discount of 5.86 points to the spot, 2.81 points higher than the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -0.74% [21]. 3.4 Main Seats' Positions - In IF2602, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 8,889 lots, down 1,576 lots. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) had the most with 7,957 lots, down 536 lots. For short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) led with 7,649 lots, down 402 lots [34]. 4. IC Futures 4.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 8,287.95, up 0.67%. The trading volume was 26,150 lots, down 7%, and the trading value was 56.09 billion yuan, down 9% [39]. - The main contract IC2603 rose 0.82% to close at 8,266 points. The trading volume was 98,224 lots, down 4%, and the trading value was 16.25 billion yuan, down 4%. The open interest was 177,228 lots, up 2,736 lots [39]. 4.2 Overall Trading and Position - The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 166,526 lots, down 3,994 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 319,424 lots, up 6,196 lots [40]. 4.3 Basis and Annualized Basis Rate - The main contract was at a discount of 21.95 points to the spot, 0.32 points higher than the previous day. The annualized basis rate was -1.59% [40]. 4.4 Main Seats' Positions - In IC2602, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 36,529 lots, down 4,559 lots. In terms of long positions, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) had the most with 24,786 lots, up 707 lots. For short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) led with 27,507 lots, up 970 lots [52]. 5. IH Futures 5.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 3,075.94, down 0.12%. The trading volume was 5,587 lots, down 23%, and the trading value was 16.62 billion yuan, down 17% [58]. - The main contract IH2603 fell 0.11% to close at 3,077.6 points. The trading volume was 30,016 lots, down 24%, and the trading value was 2.78 billion yuan, down 25%. The open interest was 57,249 lots, down 1,653 lots [58]. 5.2 Overall Trading and Position - The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 46,533 lots, down 11,922 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 91,413 lots, down 1,610 lots [58]. 5.3 Basis and Annualized Basis Rate - The main contract was at a premium of 1.66 points to the spot, 2.98 points lower than the previous day. The annualized basis rate was 0.32% [59]. 5.4 Main Seats' Positions - In IH2602, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were led by CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 10,010 lots, down 2,507 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had the most with 6,547 lots, down 257 lots. For short positions, GF Futures (on behalf of clients) led with 10,937 lots, up 181 lots [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous sector has seen a general decline due to the correction of precious metals and copper, but the medium - to - long - term trend remains upward. The cyclical upward trend of non - ferrous metals may have begun, and the industry trend is positive in the medium - to - long - term [6]. - For nickel, it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy after the correction stabilizes, and sell out - of - the - money put options for options trading [5][6]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, passively following the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level, reaching 351,000 tons, with an increase of 3,406 tons this week. Domestic social inventory increased by 2,464 tons, and LME inventory increased by 942 tons. After the New Year's resumption of production, the spot premium of Jinchuan nickel has declined from a high level [11][12]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social inventory of stainless steel is decreasing, and warehouse receipts are at a low level [14]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Nickel - **Supply**: In 2025, the cumulative output of refined nickel increased by 17% year - on - year to 392,700 tons. In January, high nickel prices are expected to further boost production. From January to November 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 48,900 tons, compared with a net export of 24,800 tons in the same period last year. Due to the opening of the import window at the end of December, net imports are expected to increase in January. From January to November 2025, the domestic refined nickel supply was 410,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48% [22]. - **Demand**: It is the off - season for electroplating and alloy consumption. From January to December, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. Electroplating consumption decreased seasonally, while alloy consumption increased slightly, and overall consumption slowed down [23][25]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: In January 2026, the second - round domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore increased significantly month - on - month. On January 14, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources confirmed that the target production of nickel ore in 2026 would be reduced to 250 - 260 million tons from 364 million tons in 2025. The price of Indonesian ferronickel increased, and profits were slightly repaired. The FOB price of medium - and high - grade nickel ore from the Philippines also increased [27]. - **NPI**: The price of NPI has recovered, and the profit margin has been slightly repaired. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia is expected to increase [28]. - **Chromium Series**: The price of chromium series products has started to rise. Zimbabwe will impose a 10% tax on the export of chromium series products starting from January 1, 2026, which has led to a continuous rebound in the price of chromium ore [33][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: Estimated cold - rolling cash cost is around 14,200 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reaches 13,700 yuan/ton [43]. - **Supply**: It is expected that the crude steel production of stainless steel in China and Indonesia in 2025 will be 45.06 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4%. Due to the shortage of hot - rolled products in January, the production schedule of steel mills may be revised downward [45][52]. - **Demand**: The production of shipbuilding plates increased by 29% year - on - year from January to November, providing support. However, the growth rate of other terminal fields is not optimistic, especially the real estate transaction volume has decreased significantly year - on - year [53][54]. 3.2.3 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2% respectively, with a penetration rate of 47.9%, 7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the sales volume in 2026 will be 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. From January 1 - 11, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the domestic market decreased by 38% year - on - year and 67% month - on - month. The production of power cells increased by 41.9% year - on - year to 124.55 GWh from January to December. In January, the decline in power battery production due to poor vehicle sales may be smoothed by the boost of pre - export caused by the reduction of export tax rebates [56][59]. - **Global Market**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 18.39 million. In Europe, the cumulative sales from January to November increased by 29.2% year - on - year to 3.434 million, while in the US, it increased by 0.7% year - on - year to 1.39 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to December 2025 reached 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103% [60][63]. 3.2.4 Nickel Sulfate Market - **Production**: In 2025, the production of nickel sulfate in China decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons. The production of ternary precursors increased by 6% year - on - year to 903,000 tons, and the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 19% year - on - year to 686,000 tons. In January, the demand for nickel sulfate slowed down, but the price followed the strengthening of refined nickel [64][65]. - **Raw Materials**: In 2025, the production of MHP in Indonesia increased by 41% year - on - year to 444,000 tons, while the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 18% year - on - year to 224,000 tons. The increase in sulfur prices led to an increase in the cost of MHP, but the good demand for nickel sulfate boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated production recovery [67][72].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the supply of logs is tightening, with spot prices remaining stable with a slight upward trend. The current log valuation shows a north - south differentiation pattern. The price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and investors are recommended to go long near the previous low. Attention should also be paid to the 03 - 05 reverse spread of logs, while options should be on the sidelines [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: On the supply side, New Zealand's log shipments to China decreased by 210,000 cubic meters week - on - week due to the Christmas holiday but are expected to return to normal next week. China's port arrivals increased by 8% to 411,000 cubic meters, with concentrated arrivals in Shandong and limited arrivals in the South. Total inventory increased slightly by 0.75%, with inventory accumulating in the North and supply in the South remaining tight. On the demand side, the daily average outbound volume increased slightly by 1.77%, showing a strong - weak differentiation in overall demand [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The current log valuation shows a north - south differentiation. The price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/cubic meter, supported by tight supply and factory winter storage, while the price in Shandong remained flat due to concentrated supply and inventory accumulation. The cost of the current round of ship - received logs has decreased, but there is an expectation of an increase in the February foreign quotation. The price of downstream wood squares in Shandong decreased, while that in Jiangsu remained stable. In the short term, the valuation fluctuates with regional supply - demand differentiation and may stabilize next week to absorb the increase [7]. - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, investors should go long near the previous low as log prices are stable with a slight upward trend. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 03 - 05 reverse spread of logs. For options, stay on the sidelines [8]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Log Supply**: In the week of January 10 - 16, 2026, New Zealand's direct shipments to China decreased by 210,000 cubic meters week - on - week. From the cumulative data of the past 4 weeks, the shipments decreased compared with the same period last month. However, next week's shipments from New Zealand ports are expected to return to normal. From January 12 - 18, 2026, the number of pre - arriving ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 18% week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 8% [18]. - **Log Inventory**: As of January 9, the total domestic log inventory increased by 0.75% week - on - week. The inventory of radiata pine, North American timber, and spruce/fir changed by 0.44%, 20.00%, and - 7.14% respectively. In terms of provincial inventories, the inventories of Shandong, Jiangsu, Fujian, and Hebei all increased [21]. - **Log Demand**: As of January 9, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports increased by 1.77% week - on - week. The outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 3.46% week - on - week, while that in Jiangsu increased by 8.29%. As of January 13, the sample construction site funds availability rate increased slightly, with the increase mainly driven by housing construction projects [25]. - **Log Price**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained flat week - on - week and decreased by 7.50% year - on - year. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port increased by 2.74% week - on - week and decreased by 7.41% year - on - year. The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general spruce logs at Rizhao Port in Shandong remained flat week - on - week and increased by 10.48% year - on - year [32]. - **Downstream Wood Square Price**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine wood squares as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1200 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market is 1260 yuan/cubic meter. For 3000*40*90 white pine wood squares, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan/cubic meter [35]. - **Imported Log Cost**: As of January 5, 2026, the January foreign quotation (CFR) range of New Zealand radiata pine logs is 109 - 112 US dollars/JAS square, with the main price at 110 US dollars/JAS square, a decrease of 2 US dollars/JAS square compared with December [41].