尿素日报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货增仓下跌，最终报收 1711（-35/-2%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价跌幅扩大，成交乏力，河南出厂报 1730-1750 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1700-1810 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1760-1770 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1640-1700 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1760-1770 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1640-1700 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】6 月 23 日，尿素行业日产 19.98 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.47 万吨，较去 年同期增加 2.86 万吨；今日开工 86.31%，较去年同期 79.07%回升 7.24%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪依旧低迷，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价跌幅扩大，成交乏力。山东 地区主流出厂报价大幅领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率降至低位，原料库 存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业继续刚需采购，贸易商出 货为主，新单成交一般，待发消耗，预计出厂报价继续下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪低 迷，出厂报价下跌 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8126 | (30) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | | | 8356 | | | | 8366 | 8306 | 240 | | 0 | 230 | 0 | 180 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8520 | (16) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | | | 8740 | | | | 8760 | 8840 | 220 | | -20 | 240 | -50 | 320 | -40 | | 菜油 | 9721 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report concludes that as of late June, coal production in major producing areas has declined, but overall supply remains relatively abundant. Power plant inventory depletion is slow, and with the impact of imported coal, power plants only maintain necessary purchases. Port inventory is continuously decreasing. As temperatures rise nationwide, power plant daily consumption will continue to increase seasonally, and there will be necessary purchases later. The port FOB price is temporarily stable, and coal prices in the pithead area are expected to remain stable [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On June 23, port market price - holding sentiment persisted, and trader quotes continued to rise. For example, the 5500 - kcal market quote was 615 - 620 yuan/ton, and different regions had their own price ranges for various coal types [3]. Important News - In May 2025, China imported 2865.3 million tons of thermal coal (non - coking coal), a year - on - year decrease of 16.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.96%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of thermal coal was 14500.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In May 2025, China imported 738.7 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 23.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: Pithead prices have temporarily stopped falling and stabilized. Some coal mines have shut down, and the coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia have declined. As of June 22, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 66%, and in Yulin it was 44%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was around 3.7 million tons, but the overall domestic supply was still abundant. The domestic and imported markets showed different trends, with the domestic coal price basically stable and imported coal prices falling [5]. - **Demand**: Power plant loads were generally low, and inventories were at high levels. Power plants mainly relied on long - term contract coal. Some coastal power plants had nearly completed their August imported coal purchases. Non - power sectors such as cement had low operating rates, while the operating rates of coal - to - methanol and coal - to - urea were high, and the demand for chemical coal was fair, providing stable support for coal prices in the pithead area [5]. - **Inventory**: Due to shipping losses, port inflows decreased. The daily average freight volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line dropped to 1 million tons, and the number of approved carriages by the Hohhot Railway Bureau dropped to around 30. Outflows were low, and port inventory continued to decrease. As of June 23, the inventory at Bohai Rim ports was around 26.7 million tons, a reduction of 5 million tons from the high level but still relatively high. Coastal power plant daily consumption increased seasonally, but inventory depletion was slow, and inland power plant inventories remained high [5].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面冲高回落，最终报收 2504（-34/-1.34%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 2055 元/吨，北线报价 2020 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2200 元/吨，榆林地区报价 2055 元/吨，山西地区报价 2190 元/吨，河南地区报价 2260 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2330 元/吨，鲁北报价 2300 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2200 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2280 元/吨，云贵报价 2300 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2720 元/吨，宁波报价 2740 元/吨，广州报价 2580 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期国际甲醇产量为 803933 吨，较上周减少 23 万吨，装置产能利用率为 55.11%， 较上周大幅下降 15.80%。伊朗装置已全部停车；南北美洲均开工稳定为主，个别产线因 季节性限气停车；东南亚及周边开工负荷不高；非洲某装置因天然气供应而临时停车。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回落，但需求偏弱，原料煤价格震 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. In the short term, the market is influenced by production data, while in the long term, Brazil's production progress and actual increase are key factors. Domestically, the fast sales rate may support sugar prices, but the influx of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may lead to a decline in sugar prices. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR2511 closed at 5,721 with a 0.02% increase, SR2507 at 5,750 with a 0.17% decrease, and SR2509 at 5,619 with a 0.16% decrease. Trading volumes for SR2511, SR2507, and SR2509 decreased by 32.70%, 7.34%, and 12.38% respectively, and open interests decreased by 4.11%, 5.30%, and increased by 1.70% respectively [3]. - **Spot Market**: Sugar prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, and other regions ranged from 5,865 to 6,420 yuan/ton. The basis for Liuzhou was 379 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The SR07 - SR11 spread was 131 with a decrease of 1, SR09 - SR11 was 102, and SR07 - SR09 was 29 with a decrease of 11 [3]. - **Import Profit**: The in - quota and out - of - quota import prices from Brazil were 4,398 and 5,621 yuan/ton respectively, with a spread of 479 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou. For Thailand, the corresponding prices were 4,434 and 5,668 yuan/ton, with a spread of 432 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou [3]. Market Judgment - **International**: Considering Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to increase. Short - term prices are affected by production data, and long - term trends depend on Brazil's production progress and actual increase [4]. - **Domestic**: Fast sales rates may support sugar prices, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may lead to a decline in sugar prices. In the short term, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [4]. Logic Analysis - Raw sugar prices have declined due to expected global supply increases, and domestic sugar prices are expected to follow raw sugar prices in the short term due to delayed summer stocking demand, weak raw sugar, and increased out - of - quota import profits [5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Expected to remain weak in the short term [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Options**: Consider out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options [10].

股指期货数据日报 2025年6月23日 | 单位：点、手、亿元 | | | | | | | | | 单位：手 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | 成交额 | +/- | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | 中证1000 | 6078.22 | 1.31% | 19,356 | 7 | % 2,400 | 6 % | | | | | IM2507 | 6001.40 | 1.01% | 61,615 | -3% | 736 | -3% | 98,395 | 1,899 | 142 | | IM2508 | 5929.60 | -0.20% | 3,300 | | 3 9 | | 3,252 | 3,252 | 5 | | IM2509 | 5851.20 | 1.01% | 99,867 | 18% | 1,163 | 18% | 153,037 | 6,910 | 215 | | IM2512 | 5676.00 | 0.89% | 18,379 | -1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since January 20th when Trump took office, the ratio of SP contract price to NR contract price has strengthened from 0.39 to 0.43. Pulp's resistance to decline and the opportunity to stabilize after negative factors are realized are worth attention [66]. - The weak macro - environment suppresses both the upstream import and downstream export of pulp, resulting in relatively less negative impact on pulp in a weak pattern [66]. - The impact of the temporary shutdown of Finnpulp's Joutseno plant is limited. The long - fiber import volume has increased compared to the same period last year, which will offset the impact of the shutdown [71]. - The import, inventory, and consumption data of hardwood pulp show a trend of tightening balance, but hardwood pulp is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [71]. - The operating conditions of the domestic papermaking industry have an increasing influence on pulp prices, but the current domestic data is not consistently bearish or bullish [71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Technical Analysis - Pulp - Rubber Spread and Commodity Turnover Rate - Since June, the communication between Chinese and US leaders and high - level consultations in London have eased trade relations, reducing negative factors for commodities. However, the reduction of negative factors for pulp is relatively small, and there is still an opportunity to enter the market when the spread reaches the previous low [6]. - Israel's full - scale attack on Iran this week led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The commodity turnover rate on June 13th verified that the 84% correlation between pulp and crude oil comes from consistent downstream consumption expectations. When crude oil price changes are due to supply, the impact on pulp is small; when due to consumption, the guidance for pulp price is strong [6]. 3.2 SP Single - Side - US Policy and International Oil Price - From June to now, the US economic policy uncertainty index has declined for the second consecutive month, reaching 432.6 points. Its 12 - month average increased by 77.1% year - on - year, hitting a new high since April 2021, with 12 consecutive months of expanding growth, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. - In May, international oil prices decreased month - on - month, reaching $62.8 per barrel. Its 3 - month average decreased by 23.9% year - on - year, with 4 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. 3.3 SP Single - Side - International Trade & Dollar Index - In May, China's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching $529 billion. Its 6 - month cumulative value increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for SP valuation [19]. - In May, the real broad - based dollar index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 116.6 points. Its 9 - month average increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with 15 consecutive months of marginal increase. The general cycle of the dollar index is 23 months, which is negative for SP single - side [19]. 3.4 SP Single - Side - Canadian Trade and Global Stock Market - In April, Canada's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching 128 billion Canadian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. It lags behind pulp prices and the negative impact has been fully realized [26]. - In April, the global stock market capitalization increased slightly month - on - month, reaching $119.9 trillion. Its 12 - month cumulative value increased by 7.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth [26]. 3.5 SP Single - Side - Softwood Data - The Joutseno softwood pulp mill of Finnpulp has temporarily shut down. In May, the inventory of European bleached softwood pulp decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, and consumption increased by 269,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. - In April, domestic softwood chip imports remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp imports decreased month - on - month to 838,000 tons. The total long - fiber import was 843,000 tons. The 6 - month cumulative value decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of narrowing decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. 3.6 Inventory - SP Single - Side & Hardwood - Softwood Spread - In May, the social inventory of pulp in ports including Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, and Tianjin increased month - on - month to 2.159 million tons. The SP inventory decreased month - on - month to 275,200 tons. The total of social and futures inventory was 2.434 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, which is negative for SP single - side and has been fully realized [39]. - In May, the ratio of social inventory to futures inventory was 7.84 times. Its 6 - month average increased by 35.4% year - on - year, which is negative for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread but with limited amplitude [39]. 3.7 SP Single - Side - Import and Export - In May, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion. In April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.214 billion. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [46]. - In May, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 5.4% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline [46]. 3.8 SP Single - Side - Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory - In April, the electricity consumption of the domestic papermaking industry decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh. The 12 - month cumulative electricity consumption increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with 9 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is negative for SP single - side [53]. - In April, the finished product inventory of the domestic papermaking industry increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 77.57 billion yuan. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with 13 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase [53]. 3.9 Hardwood - Softwood Pulp Spread - Import and Output - In April, the import of hardwood chips was 994,000 tons, the lowest since August 2023. The import of hardwood pulp decreased to 1.204 million tons, softwood chips remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp decreased to 838,000 tons. The ratio of short - fiber to long - fiber import was 2.02 times. Its 12 - month average increased by 13.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [59]. - In May, the consumption of hardwood pulp in domestic papermaking was 2.274 million tons, and that of softwood pulp was 534,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times. Its 9 - month average increased by 7.1% year - on - year, with 7 consecutive months of expanding growth [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the Middle East geopolitical conflict shows signs of expansion, with crude oil prices rising continuously. In the short term, edible oils may follow the upward trend of crude oil and US biodiesel, but the upward momentum is weakening. Attention should be paid to Iran's attitude [6][26]. - Fundamentally, India has lowered the tax rate on crude palm oil, which may increase India's purchases. Continued attention should be paid to the purchasing situations of China and India. Domestic soybean oil has entered a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the pattern of oversupply persists, but the bottom support of the rapeseed oil futures market is still strong, with significant price increases [6][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market - Malaysia's palm oil production in June may decline. SPPOMA estimates that the production in the first 15 days of June decreased by 4%, with the decline narrowing compared to the 17% decrease in the first 10 days. ITS estimates that the exports in the first 20 days of June increased by 14% month - on - month, with the increase rate declining compared to the 26% increase in the first 15 days. It is expected that the inventory in June will be around 2 million tons, showing little change compared to May [10]. - Indonesia may raise the export reference price to around $875 in July, up from $856 in June, but the TAX is expected to remain unchanged, and the levy will increase slightly [10]. 3.2 Domestic Palm Oil - As of June 13, 2025 (Week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 409,600 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 9.93%. The inventory is still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes are stable with a slight increase, and the import profit inversion has narrowed. There were sporadic purchases this week, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. In May, China imported 210,000 tons of palm oil, and the cumulative import from January to May was only 990,000 tons, at a historical low. The apparent consumption in May was basically 210,000 tons, also at a historical low [15]. - The spot market has changed little. The cumulative spot trading volume of palm oil this week was only more than 2,000 tons, significantly less than the 13,000 tons of the previous week. Recently, India has carried out cargo cancellation, but the impact on the futures market is limited. Currently, palm oil shows a fluctuating upward trend due to the Middle East geopolitical situation and US biodiesel policies, but the upward momentum weakens after a rapid increase. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, and caution should be exercised against a potential decline from high levels [15]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 847,000 tons, an increase of 34,300 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 4.22%. It is at a relatively neutral to slightly low level in the same period of history, and the basis has declined, with the East China region quoting at 09 + 230. This week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3842 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.02%, slightly higher than the previous week [18]. - Currently, soybean oil has a good cost - performance ratio, and the spot trading volume has improved. The cumulative spot trading volume of soybean oil this week was about 110,000 tons, slightly less than the 107,000 tons of the previous week, but at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel situation, the futures market of edible oils has generally risen. Fundamentally, domestic soybean oil has entered a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose. In the short term, edible oils are expected to be relatively strong, but the upward momentum is weakening, and caution should be exercised against a decline from high levels [18]. 3.4 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 71,500 tons, with an operating rate of 19.06%, slightly lower than the previous week. As of June 6, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 769,000 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous week, still at a historical high. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil is around $1,050, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,400. In May, China imported 340,000 tons of rapeseed, but only 110,000 tons of rapeseed oil, at a relatively low level in the same period of history [23]. - The spot market is booming. The spot trading volume of rapeseed oil this week was 47,000 tons, slightly lower than the 50,000 tons of the previous week, but at a historical high in the same period. The domestic rapeseed oil basis is stable with a slight increase, with the three - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi quoting at 09 + 70. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the pattern of oversupply persists. The international relations and the overall trend of edible oils affect the repeated fluctuations of rapeseed oil, and there are many policy - related market changes. Risk management should be carried out [23]. 3.5 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Affected by geopolitical and other factors, edible oils have risen significantly. Continued attention should be paid to the Middle East situation. In the short term, the upward momentum of edible oils is weakening, and caution should be exercised against a decline from high levels. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see. (The views are for reference only and not for trading purposes) [28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to be under pressure due to the global sugar market's expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season. The ISO has raised its estimate of the global sugar shortage in the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons, while Datagro predicts a global sugar surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 season [7][9] - The price of raw sugar has recently declined due to the expectation of increased global supply, and the price center has shifted downward. Domestically, the summer stocking demand is lagging, and the short - term weakness of raw sugar has led to a rise in the profit of out - of - quota imports. The supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to passively follow the price fluctuations of raw sugar in the short term [4] - Considering that Brazil is about to enter the peak supply period, the global sugar inventory is expected to start accumulating. Raw sugar is expected to maintain a volatile trend overall, and the short - term price will be affected by phased production data. In the domestic market, the fast sales - to - production ratio is expected to support sugar prices, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market may drag down sugar prices. Coupled with the recent weak trend of raw sugar, domestic sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Internationally, with Brazil approaching the supply peak, global sugar inventory is expected to accumulate, and raw sugar will likely oscillate. Short - term price movements will be influenced by production data, and attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual production increase [3] - Domestically, the fast sales - to - production ratio supports sugar prices, but the influx of imported sugar may pull prices down. Combined with the weak raw sugar trend, short - term domestic sugar prices will be weak [3] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Be bearish on the market [5] - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5] - Options: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [5] 2. Core Logic Analysis - The expectation of increased global sugar supply has dragged down raw sugar prices, and the domestic summer stocking demand lag, along with the weak raw sugar, has led to higher out - of - quota import profits and impending processed sugar supply pressure, causing Zhengzhou sugar to follow raw sugar prices [4] 3. Weekly Data Tracking International Data - Brazil: In the second half of May, sugar production in the central - southern region increased by 8.86% year - on - year. In June, the first two weeks' sugar and molasses exports were 1.53 million tons, a 12.8% decrease from the same period last year. As of June 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar decreased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 1.94% week - on - week [10][20] - India: The NFCSF estimates the 2024/25 season's ending sugar inventory to be about 4.865 million metric tons, which can meet domestic consumption in key months in 2025. The sugar ex - factory price is stable. The 2025/26 season is expected to see a strong recovery in sugar production, reaching about 35 million metric tons [21] - Thailand: The 2024/25 season ended in April with a total sugar production of 10.03 million metric tons. The OSCB expects the 2025/26 season's production to increase to 10.05 million tons, with an estimated increase in sugarcane planting area [24] Domestic Data - In the 2024/25 season, China's sugar production ended with a total of 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons, and the sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year [27] - In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 333,100 tons. From January to May 2025, the total sugar imports were 633,200 tons, a 50.31% year - on - year decrease. As of May in the 2024/25 season, China imported 2.095 million tons of sugar, a 33.16% year - on - year decrease [29] - In May 2025, China imported 64,300 tons of syrup and premixed powder, with 47,700 tons under the 2106.90 item [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In June, domestic lithium salt production resumed growth, raw material consumption increased, lithium ore inventory decreased, and there was a strong willingness to support prices. However, subsequent arrivals of lithium ore may lead to a spiral decline in lithium salt prices. In July, smelters resumed production, and production reached a new high, further increasing supply pressure [5]. - Consumption side: Subsidies for trade - ins are expected to continue. The energy storage market is currently in a state of "rush to export", but the month - on - month increase is limited. In July, the demand off - season is expected to be obvious, with battery and cathode factories showing signs of destocking and purchasing remaining cautious [5]. - Cost side: Both mines and salt factories are reducing costs, the cost curve is constantly moving down, and the psychological support in the market is also decreasing [5]. - Price outlook: SMM's weekly inventory and production increased month - on - month, smelters accumulated inventory, and downstream destocked. Downstream orders are expected to decline in the off - season, and downstream will maintain a destocking strategy with a high proportion of customer - supplied materials. Spot purchases will remain for just - in - time needs. As some smelters still have profits at current prices and supply resumes growth, inventory is expected to increase rapidly in July, and lithium carbonate prices will be under downward pressure [5]. - Strategy recommendations: For single - side trading, expect lithium carbonate prices to decline; for arbitrage, temporarily wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. Summary by Directory Demand Analysis 1.1.1 New Energy Vehicles - Slowing Domestic Sales Momentum - From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44%. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 44% of the total vehicle sales. From June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 402,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 57%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of the year were 4.76 million, a year - on - year increase of 35% [12]. - In June, the growth of new energy vehicles slowed down. On one hand, some cities exhausted subsidies for trade - ins, and there was a time lag in issuing new subsidies. On the other hand, the penetration rate exceeded 50%, limiting the growth space. The Passenger Car Association predicts that the annual wholesale volume of new energy passenger cars will be 15.73 million, a year - on - year increase of 29%, with a penetration rate of 56% [12]. - The peak - season characteristics of power cell production are not obvious. From January to May, the production is expected to increase by 54% year - on - year to 458.6 GWh, and the month - on - month increase in May was only about 2% [12]. 1.1.2 New Energy Vehicles - Slowing Electrification Process in Europe and the United States - From January to April 2025, the cumulative global new energy vehicle sales increased by 33.9% year - on - year to 5.97 million, compared with a 26.7% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. In the United States, the cumulative sales increased by 6.7% year - on - year to 523,000, compared with a 10.1% increase in the same period last year. In Europe, the cumulative sales increased by 24.6% year - on - year to 1.118 million, compared with an 11.3% increase in the same period last year. China's new energy vehicle exports increased by 52% year - on - year to 639,000, compared with a 21% increase in the same period last year [18]. - The EU's carbon emissions review has been postponed for two years, and the United States plans to cancel IRA subsidies [18]. 1.2 Energy Storage Market - "Rush to Export" Maintains Orders but with Limited Increment - In the northwestern region of China, there is an oversupply of thermal power, the peak - valley electricity price difference has decreased significantly compared with 2023, the demand for wind, solar power, and energy storage has declined, and electricity prices are expected to fall [23]. - The marginal effect of the second round of "rush to export" is diminishing, and the month - on - month increase is relatively limited. The US plan to cancel IRA subsidies has a significant impact on local energy storage project construction [23]. - SMM expects the cumulative production of Chinese energy storage cells from January to May to be 166.7 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 67%, compared with a 42% increase in the same period last year [23]. 1.3 Battery and Cathode Production Scheduled in June Remained Flat Month - on - Month - SMM's production schedule for June: Lithium iron phosphate production is expected to increase by 2% month - on - month, while ternary cathode material production is expected to decrease by 1.2% month - on - month [26]. - From January to May, the cumulative production of power and energy storage cells increased by 57% year - on - year to 625.33 GWh [26]. - The spot market has difficulty in shipping. Due to smelter production cuts and reduced shipments, the basis is strong, but the downstream customer - supplied proportion is high, the receiving capacity is limited, and trading is light [26]. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production Increased - This week's rebound in lithium carbonate prices stimulated the continuous growth of weekly production. As smelters gradually resumed production in June, monthly production is expected to reach a new high. SMM expects June's lithium carbonate production to increase by 9% month - on - month to 78,800 tons [30]. - In May, the supply of lithium ore gradually became abundant, and lithium ore prices declined. It is expected that arrivals in June will continue to increase, and lithium ore prices still have room to fall [30]. - Due to the increase in recovery rate and the decrease in processing fees, the cost of converting the same ore price into lithium salt is lower than the same period last year [30]. 2.2 China's Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - Not further elaborated on specific data trends in the given content, only the charts of production by different raw materials (salt lake, lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycling) are provided [32] 2.3 Supply Pressure of Lithium Carbonate Still Existed in June and Increased Further in July - In May 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 21,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. From January to May 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% [42]. - Currently, Chile exports lithium carbonate and lithium sulfate to China, which diverts part of the lithium carbonate import volume. Although the apparent import volume of lithium carbonate has decreased, the supply of lithium elements still exerts significant pressure [42]. 2.4 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Dynamics Turned to Surplus - Not further elaborated on specific surplus data and analysis in the given content, only the chart of lithium carbonate supply - demand balance is provided [44] 2.5 Lithium Carbonate Inventory Continued to Accumulate - Lithium carbonate inventory continued to accumulate this week. As demand enters the off - season, downstream purchases cautiously and actively destocks. Spot demand remains low, and the phenomenon of "buying on dips" persists [48]. - Since the current term structure does not provide delivery profits, spot - futures traders only choose to deliver when they cannot sell their spot goods, so the warehouse receipts may remain at a low level [48]. - Spot feedback indicates that inventory at all links in the industrial chain is not low, and it is difficult for upstream to sell goods. Inventory is expected to continue to increase, presenting an opportunity for reverse arbitrage [48].