Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of the pig market is increasing, and pig prices are continuing to decline. The overall market is still under pressure in the short - term, with limited upside potential. The futures price is expected to be mainly in a low - level oscillatory operation in the medium and long term [1][3][5][6] - The overall futures price of live pigs shows an oscillatory performance. Although there may be short - term upward movements, in the long run, the supply - side pressure is the main influencing factor on the market [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - Today, the live pig prices across the country are in a downward state. The average price has dropped from 10.34 to 10.24, with most regions experiencing price declines [3] - The scale enterprises' slaughter volume continues to increase significantly, and it is expected that the slaughter volume this month will continue to rise. The slaughter volume of ordinary farmers remains relatively low but may increase in the future [3] - The secondary fattening is more cautious. Although there is a high price difference between large and small pigs, the continuous decline in pig prices and the high inventory level make the market still cautious [3][6] - The current slaughter weight of live pigs remains relatively high, and the overall supply - side pressure is still relatively obvious [3] Futures Price - The overall futures price of live pigs shows an oscillatory performance. The prices of some contracts such as LH01, LH07, LH09, and LH11 have increased, while the prices of contracts such as LH05 have decreased [3] - In the long run, due to the high supply - side pressure and relatively high production capacity in the breeding end, the futures price is expected to be mainly in a low - level oscillatory operation [6] - However, due to the continuous widening of the price difference between large and small pigs, the future slaughter rhythm may slow down, and the price pressure may improve, which may lead to short - term upward movements in the futures price [6] Sow/Piglet Price - The piglet price has dropped from 357 to 348, and the sow price remains unchanged at 1557 [3] - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising has dropped from - 98.32 to - 159.65, and the profit for purchasing piglets has dropped from 53.10 to 20.83 [3] Slaughter End - The slaughter volume has increased from 125,729 to 129,803, an increase of 4,074 [3] Price Difference between Large and Small Pigs - The price difference between standard pigs and medium pigs has decreased from 0.67 to 0.65; the price difference between medium - large pigs and standard pigs has increased from 0.22 to 0.23; the price difference between large pigs and medium - large pigs has decreased from 0.6 to 0.5; the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs has decreased from 0.82 to 0.73 [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts on rallies [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Mainly adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [7]

原油日报 2026 年 3 月 3 日 原油现货市场日报 赵若晨 期货从业证号： F03151390 投资咨询从业证号： Z0023496 ： zhaoruochen_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 据彭博社看到的客户通知， 印尼钱德拉阿斯里太平洋公司 （PT Chandra | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贸易物流 | Asri Pacific 已宣布遭遇不可抗力， 理由是通过霍尔木兹海峡的原料供 应中断。 | Tbk） | | | | | | 由于担忧旷日持久的冲突可能掐断来自这个能源富集区的中东供应， 石油和 | | | 天然气贸易商连日来争相寻求中东以外的、 通往亚洲的替代供应来源。 | | | | | 据联合海上信息中心通告， 自周末战争爆发以来已有四艘船只遇袭， 其中包 | | | | | 括一艘美国籍油轮， 并造成两人死亡。 | | | | | 日本一家船东互保协会警告称， 波斯湾内的所有船只须立即驶往中立水域避 | | | | | 险， 而计划驶往该区域的船只则应避开霍尔木兹海峡。 | | | | 油田管道 | 阿联酋富查伊拉酋长国媒体办 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The conflict in the Middle East has affected the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. If the conflict persists, it may impact the supply - demand pattern of the Middle East and Europe - Mediterranean routes and drive up spot freight rates. In the container shipping market, short - term trading can adopt a long - on - dips strategy, and arbitrage should be on the sidelines [9][11][12]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the small and medium - sized ship market is active, and the spot freight rate is expected to continue to rise. However, the upward movement of the Capesize ship type may be restricted. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may disrupt regional trade and increase operating costs [23]. - In the carbon emission market, the domestic carbon market is dominated by sporadic large - scale transactions with limited activity. In the short term, carbon prices may be supported, but the increase may be limited. In the long term, the carbon price center in 2026 is expected to be higher than in 2025. The EU carbon market is in a structurally tight pattern, but the carbon price is in a low - level shock due to policy uncertainty [36][39]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Container Shipping - **Futures Market**: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2612 all rose significantly, with increases of 16.73%, 16.53%, 15.68%, 15.42%, 15.67%, and 15.33% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also increased [5]. - **Container Freight Rates**: SCFIS European line index was 1463.40, down 7.00% week - on - week and 7.43% year - on - year. SCFI comprehensive index was 1333.11, up 6.52% week - on - week and down 24.20% year - on - year. Different routes showed different trends [5]. - **Fuel Costs**: WTI crude oil near - month price was $67.06 per barrel, up 2.63% week - on - week and down 4.01% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month price was $73.21 per barrel, up 3.42% week - on - week and down 0.3% year - on - year [5]. - **Market Analysis and Strategy**: Affected by the Middle East conflict, some shipping companies have suspended bookings on Middle East routes and raised freight rates. The European line is in the traditional off - season from March to April, but if the conflict persists, it may drive up spot freight rates. The trading strategy is to go long on dips in the short term and wait and see for arbitrage [9][11][12]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Dry Bulk Freight Index**: On February 27, 2026, BDI index was 2149 points, up 1.09% week - on - week; BCI index was 3056 points, up 0.16% week - on - week; BPI index was 1942 points, up 1.36% week - on - week; BSI index was 1338 points, up 3.0% week - on - week [22]. - **Dry Bulk Freight Rates**: On February 27, 2026, the BCI - C3 (Tubarao - Qingdao) route was quoted at $23.45 per ton; the BCI - C5 (West Australia - Qingdao) route was quoted at $10.239 per ton [22]. - **Market Analysis and Outlook**: The small and medium - sized ship market is active, and the spot freight rate is expected to continue to rise. The Capesize ship type may be restricted by inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may disrupt regional trade and increase operating costs [23]. - **Industry News**: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran banned ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The North Standard P&I Club issued a safety warning for the Porto Sudeste in Brazil. The throughput of Pilbara Ports in January reached a record high. CMB.TECH locked in multiple long - term charters. The US and Guinea reached a key minerals agreement [25][28][29]. Carbon Emission Market - **China Carbon Emission Market**: On March 2, 2026, the opening and closing prices of CEA were 80.5 yuan per ton, with no change from the previous day. There was no trading in the listing agreement, 200,000 tons were traded in the bulk agreement, and the turnover was 16.2 million yuan. CCER had no transactions [35]. - **EU Carbon Emission Market**: On February 27, 2026, the EUA auction price was 68.37 euros per ton, and the auction volume was 2.7125 million tons. In the futures market, the settlement price of the ICE continuous contract was 69.02 euros, down 0.98% from the previous trading day, and 711 lots were traded [35]. - **Market Analysis and Outlook**: The domestic carbon market has limited activity. In the short term, carbon prices may be supported, but the increase may be limited. In the long term, the carbon price center in 2026 is expected to be higher than in 2025. The EU carbon market is in a structurally tight pattern, but the carbon price is in a low - level shock due to policy uncertainty [36][39]. - **Industry News**: China's offshore oilfield achieved large - scale drone operations, saving costs and reducing carbon emissions. Shanghai launched a carbon trust. Qinghai issued a policy to promote the development of concentrated solar power. The price of European natural gas futures soared due to the Middle East conflict. The new construction projects of downstream construction enterprises decreased [39][40][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical analysis, and trading strategies of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber. Factors such as economic policies, inventory changes, and industry data affect the price trends and investment decisions of these rubber products [3][8][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **RU Natural Rubber**: On different dates, the prices of RU main 05 contracts fluctuated. For example, on 26 - 03 - 03, it was 17145 points, down 100 points or - 0.58%; on 26 - 02 - 26, it was 17315 points, up 75 points or + 0.44%. The prices of different types of natural rubber also varied, with WF at 16800 - 16900 yuan/ton on 26 - 03 - 03 and 17150 - 17250 yuan/ton on 26 - 02 - 26 [1][16]. - **NR 20 - number Rubber**: The NR main 05 contract prices also changed. On 26 - 03 - 03, it was 13865 points, down 100 points or - 0.72%; on 26 - 02 - 26, the NR main 04 contract was 14055 points, up 75 points or + 0.54%. The prices of related products like smoke - sheet rubber cargo and Thai standard near - port cargo also had different values on different dates [1][16]. - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: The BR main 05 contract prices changed. On 26 - 03 - 03, it was 13345 points, down 145 points or - 1.07%; on 26 - 02 - 26, the BR main 04 contract was 12880 points, down 240 points or - 1.83%. The prices of different types of butadiene rubber in different regions also varied [2][17]. Important Information - **Vietnam's Rubber Exports**: In January 2026, Vietnam's natural rubber exports were 6.2 tons, up 5% year - on - year; mixed rubber exports were 15.3 tons, up 53% year - on - year. Exports to China for natural rubber decreased by 42% year - on - year, while mixed rubber exports to China increased by 53% year - on - year [2]. - **Global Light - vehicle Sales**: In January 2026, due to the contraction of the Chinese passenger - car market, the global light - vehicle seasonally - adjusted annualized sales dropped to 81 million vehicles/year, and the monthly sales decreased by 2% to 6.63 million vehicles. The sales in the US, Western Europe, and China all declined [7]. - **EU Passenger - car Market**: In January 2026, the EU passenger - car market sales decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 vehicles. The market share of pure - electric vehicles increased to 19.3%, and the share of hybrid vehicles was 38.6%, while the combined share of gasoline and diesel vehicles dropped to 30.1% [12]. - **US Tire Imports**: In 2025, the US imported 286.15 million tires, up 4.8% year - on - year. Imports from China decreased by 15% year - on - year, while imports from Thailand increased by 10% year - on - year [17]. - **Thailand's Rubber Exports**: In January 2026, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding composite rubber) were 21.4 tons, down 10% year - on - year; mixed rubber exports were 13.7 tons, down 10% year - on - year. Exports to China also decreased [22]. - **Global Natural Rubber Market**: The ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber market will be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. The global natural rubber production increased by 1.4% in 2025 and is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons in 2026 [27]. Logical Analysis - **Economic and Policy Factors**: In February, the US economic policy uncertainty index rose to 361.3 points, up 9.5% year - on - year, which is positive for the energy sector. In January, the domestic M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year, M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 spread was - 4.1%, slightly positive for commodities [3][8]. - **Inventory Factors**: The inventory in Qingdao Bonded Area has been accumulating. The inventory in the bonded area has increased to 11.8 tons, up 48.7% year - on - year, and the general - trade inventory has increased to 56.2 tons, up 33.3% year - on - year. The domestic dry - rubber inventory has increased to 129.7 tons, up 3.9% year - on - year [3][13]. - **Industry Index and Production Factors**: In February, the ZEW global auto - industry index dropped to - 7.2 points, slightly negative for commodities. The domestic all - steel tire production - line operating rate increased to 29.2%, up 36.6% year - on - year, and the semi - steel tire production - line operating rate increased to 34.6%, up 45.3% year - on - year [13]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: For example, on 26 - 03 - 03, the RU main 05 contract was advised to wait and watch, and pay attention to the pressure at 17315 points; the NR main 05 contract was advised to short with a small amount and set a stop - loss at 14050 points [3]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: For example, on 26 - 02 - 26, the spread of RU2605 - RU2609 (1 lot to 1 lot) was + 175 points, and it was advised to hold with a stop - loss set at + 130 points [18]. - **Options Trading**: The report generally advised to wait and watch for options trading [3][8][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides daily observations of the butadiene rubber market, including market conditions, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies. It also mentions the situation of the natural rubber market and relevant economic and industry data, which are used to analyze the market trends of rubber products and provide investment suggestions. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - On 26 - 03 - 03, BR main contract 05 closed at 13345 points, down 145 points or 1.07%. RU main contract 05 closed at 17145 points, down 100 points or 0.58%. NR main contract 05 closed at 13865 points, down 100 points or 0.72% [1][2] - On 26 - 03 - 02, BR main contract 05 closed at 12780 points, up 115 points or 0.91%. RU main contract 05 closed at 16990 points, down 165 points or 0.96%. NR main contract 05 closed at 13735 points, down 125 points or 0.90% [6][7] - On 26 - 02 - 27, BR main contract 05 closed at 12760 points, down 40 points or 1.31%. RU main contract 05 closed at 17080 points, down 45 points or 0.26%. NR main contract 05 closed at 13865 points, down 45 points or 0.32% [11] - On 26 - 02 - 26, BR main contract 04 closed at 12880 points, down 240 points or 1.83%. RU main contract 05 closed at 17315 points, up 75 points or 0.44%. NR main contract 04 closed at 14055 points, up 75 points or 0.54% [15][16] - On 26 - 02 - 25, BR main contract 04 closed at 13115 points, down 45 points or 0.34%. RU main contract 05 closed at 17180 points, up 150 points or 0.88%. NR main contract 04 closed at 13930 points, up 135 points or 0.98% [19][20] - On 26 - 02 - 24, BR main contract 04 closed at 12590 points, down 190 points or 1.49%. RU main contract 05 closed at 16315 points, down 135 points or 0.82%. NR main contract 04 closed at 1380 points, down 190 points or 1.42% [23][24] Important Information - An international investment bank reported that the chemical industry's M&A market showed an increasing trend at the end of 2025, and the industry valuation became stable, with a slight recovery expected in 2026 [2] - In January 2026, EU passenger car market sales decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 units. The market share of pure - electric vehicles reached 19.3%, and that of hybrid vehicles was 38.6%, while the combined market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles dropped to 30.1% [7][12] - In 2025, US tire imports totaled 28,615 million units, up 4.8% year - on - year. Imports from China decreased by 15%, while imports from Thailand increased by 10% [16] - In 2025, the petrochemical industry achieved stable progress. Crude oil production increased for seven consecutive years, and natural gas production increased for nine consecutive years. However, industry investment and total import - export trade decreased [20] - ANRPC said that the global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with production expected to reach 1,520 million tons [24] Logical Analysis - In February, the US economic policy uncertainty index rose to 361.3 points, up 9.5% year - on - year. Brent oil prices rose for two consecutive months. The combined inventory of cis - butadiene rubber factories and traders reached a new high since July 2013 [3] - In January, domestic M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year. The M1 - M2 gap widened slightly, which was slightly positive for commodities. Shandong's tire production line inventory decreased [8] - In February, the ZEW global auto industry index dropped to - 7.2 points. The domestic high - cis butadiene rubber capacity utilization rate increased for three consecutive months [12] - In January, the domestic auto inventory warning index increased for three consecutive months. The domestic butadiene port inventory decreased, and the net imports of BD and BR decreased for three consecutive months [17] - In December 2025, US auto and parts new orders increased by 11.4% year - on - year. The average of the full - steel and semi - steel tire production rates decreased slightly, and the domestic BD production decreased marginally [21] - Before the holiday, the domestic butadiene production increased for four consecutive weeks, and the warehouse receipts of the SHFE BR contract increased significantly [25] Trading Strategies - On 26 - 03 - 03, hold long positions in BR main contract 05 with a stop - loss at 13110 points. Hold the spread position of BR2605 - RU2605 (2 lots vs 1 lot) with a stop - loss at - 4120 points. Wait and see for options [3] - On 26 - 03 - 02, reduce and hold a wait - and - see attitude for BR04 contract. Hold long positions in BR main contract 05 with a stop - loss at 12605 points. Wait and see for options [8] - On 26 - 02 - 27, hold short positions in BR04 contract with a stop - loss at 12800 points. Try long positions in BR main contract 05 with a stop - loss at 12535 points. Wait and see for options [12] - On 26 - 02 - 26, hold short positions in BR main contract 04 with a stop - loss at 13350 points. Wait and see for options [17] - On 26 - 02 - 25, try short positions in BR main contract 04 with a stop - loss at 13480 points. Wait and see for options [21] - On 26 - 02 - 24, wait and see for BR main contract 04, paying attention to the support at 12530 points. Wait and see for options [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The chemical M&A market showed signs of increased activity at the end of 2025, and the industry valuation is gradually stabilizing, with a slight recovery expected in 2026. Sustainable development remains the core focus of the industry, and market attention to new basic chemical technologies continues to rise [1]. - The prosperity of the chemical industry is closely related to global economic growth and raw material costs, both of which currently suppress corporate revenues and profits [1]. - The global refined oil demand will enter the end of growth during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, and the refining and refined oil industry chain in China will enter the "acceleration period of transformation" ahead of the world [9]. Summary by Directory Market Situation - **26 - 03 - 03**: L主力2605合约报收6996点，上涨+5点或+0.07%，LLDPE市场价格宽幅上涨，贸易商随行报涨，下游采购积极；PP主力2605合约报收7038点，上涨+40点或+0.57%，受原油成本支撑，企业上调出厂报价，贸易商跟涨，下游追涨接货意愿积极 [1]. - **26 - 03 - 02**: L主力2605合约报收6633点，上涨+36点或+0.55%，LLDPE市场价格涨跌互现，部分贸易商出货，部分封盘惜售，下游刚需拿货；PP主力2605合约报收6641点，上涨+30点或+0.45%，国内PP市场价格重心窄幅盘整，午后贸易商封盘，成交有限 [5]. - **26 - 02 - 27**: L主力2605合约报收6604点，下跌 - 64点或 - 0.96%，LLDPE市场价格小幅下跌，贸易商让利出货，成交不及昨日；PP主力2605合约报收6605点，下跌 - 70点或 - 1.05%，国内PP市场部分弱调，下游询盘有限，交投平平 [9]. - **26 - 02 - 26**: L主力2605合约报收6758点，下跌 - 19点或 - 0.28%，LLDPE市场价格部分上涨，下游谨慎观望，实盘小单成交；PP主力2605合约报收6734点，上涨+14点或+0.21%，国内PP市场部分仍有上涨，下游询盘氛围偏弱，成交侧重低价 [13]. - **26 - 02 - 25**: L主力2605合约报收6826点，上涨+6点或+0.09%，LLDPE市场价格部分上涨，部分下游采买原料；PP主力2605合约报收6747点，上涨+1点或+0.01%，假期原油价格上涨，下游逐步复工，择低补货 [17]. - **26 - 02 - 24**: L主力2605合约报收6644点，下跌 - 90点或 - 1.34%，LLDPE市场价格横盘整理，有价无市；PP主力2605合约报收6568点，下跌 - 80点或 - 1.20%，节前国内PP市场价格变动不大，成交零星 [20]. Important Information - **26 - 03 - 03**: An international investment bank report shows that the chemical M&A market is expected to recover slightly in 2026, and sustainable development is the core focus [1]. - **26 - 03 - 02**: The US and Israel launched a "pre - emptive" military strike against Iran on February 28, and Iran retaliated, affecting many Middle - Eastern countries [5]. - **26 - 02 - 27**: Global refined oil demand will enter the end of growth during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, and China's refining industry will enter the "acceleration period of transformation" [9]. - **26 - 02 - 26**: The Yanchang Petroleum 10 million tons/year refining and chemical integration transformation and upgrading project in Yan'an, with a total investment of 80.29 billion yuan, has completed preliminary preparations and is reported to the State Council for approval [13]. - **26 - 02 - 25**: In 2025, the petrochemical industry achieved stable progress, with stable production of major energy and chemicals, but a decline in investment and total import - export trade [17]. - **26 - 02 - 24**: The EU's Waste Technical Adaptation Committee for the "Directive on Single - Use Plastics" approved a draft implementation act, adjusting the accounting rules for recycled PET in plastic beverage bottles [20]. Logical Analysis - **26 - 03 - 03**: In February, the US economic policy uncertainty index rose to 361.3 points, up +9.5% year - on - year, benefiting the energy sector; Brent oil prices rose for two consecutive months to $69.6/barrel, down - 7.4% year - on - year, benefiting PP; domestic PP port inventories increased for three consecutive months to 74,500 tons, up +4.4% year - on - year, with narrowing growth, benefiting PP [2]. - **26 - 03 - 02**: In January, domestic M1 increased by +4.9% year - on - year, M2 increased by +9.0% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap was - 4.1%, slightly benefiting commodities. As of last Friday, the registered warehouse receipts of the DCE L contract remained at 9,400 lots, up +74.1% year - on - year; the PP contract registered warehouse receipts increased by +4.1% to 21,500 lots, up +138.0% year - on - year. Since February, PP port inventories have increased for three consecutive months to 74,500 tons, up +4.4% year - on - year, with narrowing growth, slightly benefiting PP [6]. - **26 - 02 - 27**: In February, the ZEW global auto industry index dropped to - 7.2 points, slightly negative for commodities. In December 2025, the total domestic raw salt import - export volume was $49 million, down - 46.0% year - on - year, with expanding decline for nine consecutive months, negative for the chemical sector. The weekly maintenance loss of domestic LLDPE increased to 27,800 tons, with a 4 - week cumulative of 95,700 tons, up +15.7% year - on - year, with narrowing growth for three consecutive weeks; the weekly maintenance loss of domestic PP increased for three consecutive weeks to 178,500 tons, with a 4 - week cumulative of 705,200 tons, up +23.2% year - on - year, with narrowing growth for four consecutive weeks [10]. - **26 - 02 - 26**: The same as the logical analysis on 26 - 02 - 27 [14]. - **26 - 02 - 25**: In December 2025, new orders for US automobiles and auto parts increased to $67.98 billion, up +11.4% year - on - year, with the highest growth in 35 months, benefiting commodities. In January, the average volatility index of the Dow Jones Industrial Index (VXD) rose to 14.97 points, up +2.8% year - on - year, with marginal decline for eight consecutive months, benefiting the chemical sector. In January, the monthly maintenance loss of LLDPE increased to 134,000 tons, and that of PP increased for two consecutive months to 822,000 tons, with a ratio of 0.163, indicating L is stronger [18]. - **26 - 02 - 24**: As of the Spring Festival, the registered warehouse receipts of the DCE L contract remained at 9,400 tons, up +43.2% year - on - year; the DCE PP contract registered warehouse receipts increased by +6.6% to 18,700 tons, up +94.2% year - on - year. In January, the monthly maintenance loss of LLDPE increased to 134,000 tons, up +37.1% year - on - year, with expanding growth, benefiting L [21]. Trading Strategies - **26 - 03 - 03**: For the L 2605 contract, hold long positions and raise the stop - loss to 6860 points; for the PP 2605 contract, buy a small amount on the rise and set the stop - loss at 6960 points. For the SPC L2605&PP2605 contract, try short positions and set the stop - loss at +21 points. Keep an eye on options [2]. - **26 - 03 - 02**: For the L 2605 contract, try long positions and set the stop - loss at 6550 points; for the PP 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines. Keep an eye on arbitrage and options [6]. - **26 - 02 - 27**: For the L 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines; for the PP 2605 contract, hold short positions and lower the stop - loss to 6700 points. Keep an eye on arbitrage and options [10]. - **26 - 02 - 26**: The same as the trading strategy on 26 - 02 - 27 [14]. - **26 - 02 - 25**: For the L 2605 contract, try long positions and set the stop - loss at 6700 points; for the PP 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the pressure at 6770 points. Keep an eye on arbitrage and options [18]. - **26 - 02 - 24**: For the L 2605 contract, stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the support at 6600 points; for the PP 2605 contract, try short positions and set the stop - loss at 6620 points. Keep an eye on arbitrage and options [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international coal market is currently strong, which is expected to support domestic coking coal prices. After the decline in the futures market, the current coking coal price has basically factored in existing negative factors, and the downward space is limited. It is not recommended to chase short positions. From a valuation perspective, the current valuation of coking coal is not high. Considering the risk - return ratio, one can try to go long at low prices, but should not be overly optimistic about the upside potential. In the medium term, it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and there is no trend - forming opportunity yet. Band trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Prices**: For coking coal futures, JM01 was 1392.5 today, up 10.5 from yesterday; JM05 was 1094, up 0.5; JM09 was 1194.5, up 5.5. For coke futures, J01 was 1818, up 12; J05 was 1652, up 16.5; J09 was 1731, up 16.5 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Low - sulfur main coking coal was 1570, unchanged; medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1270, unchanged; Mongolian 5 raw coal at the port was 1013, up 18; Mongolian 5 cleaned coal at the port was 1197, unchanged. For coke, port quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) was 1470, unchanged; port quasi - first - grade (dry - quenched) was 1680, unchanged [4]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: For coking coal, Shanxi coal warehouse receipts were 1190, unchanged; Mongolian 5 was 1166, up 21; Mongolian 3 was 1023, unchanged; Australian coal (port spot) was 1235, down 20. For coke, port spot (wet - quenched) warehouse receipts were 1581, unchanged; port spot (dry - quenched) were 1680, unchanged; Shanxi origin (wet - quenched) were 1600, unchanged; Shanxi origin (dry - quenched) were 1700, unchanged [4]. - **Basis**: Coking coal basis varied by contract and coal type. For example, for Shanxi coal, the 01 - contract basis was - 123, the 05 - contract basis was 96, and the 09 - contract basis was - 5. Coke basis also varied by contract and location [4]. - **Transportation Prices**: Transportation prices for coking coal and coke remained unchanged, such as the price from Jiexiu to Fengnan District was 140, unchanged [4]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Try to go long at low prices. In the medium term, expect wide - range fluctuations and recommend band trading [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7]. - **Related Prices**: Coke: Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) warehouse receipts were 1581 yuan/ton, Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade (dry - quenched) were 1680 yuan/ton, Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) were 1600 yuan/ton, Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade (dry - quenched) were 1700 yuan/ton. Coking coal: Shanxi coal warehouse receipts were 1190 yuan/ton, Mongolian 5 were 1166 yuan/ton, Mongolian 3 were 1023 yuan/ton, Australian coal (port spot) were 1235 yuan/ton [8]. - **Important Information** - The Mongolian imported coking coal market was weak. The market was characterized by "loose supply and weak demand recovery". Coking enterprises were mainly digesting inventory, and the restocking demand was moderate. The port inventory had reached 425 tons, and the sales pressure on traders increased, but the electronic auction sentiment in Mongolia was still relatively positive [9]. - The Yangtze River port market for thermal coal was stable. After the Spring Festival, the downstream resumption of work was slow, the acceptance of prices by rigid demand was average, the market liquidity was poor, and the price increase was weak. The inventory at the Yangtze Estuary had reached a high level, and there was a possibility of price decline. The current price of CV5000 at the Yangtze Estuary was 690 - 710 yuan [9]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends of coking coal and coke over the years, such as the coke comprehensive absolute price index, Mongolian 5 cleaned coal price, coking coal basis, etc. [11][13][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of US soybeans is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the full reaction of macro - level bullish factors and the existence of South American weather disturbances. The domestic soybean meal is mainly considered from a bearish perspective, while the rapeseed meal is expected to be relatively strong, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean market showed a downward trend after a rally. The domestic soybean meal market followed the US soybean market and declined, while the rapeseed meal market rose after a decline. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed, and the inter - monthly spread of soybean meal declined [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The US soybean carry - over stocks remain at around 350 million bushels, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation. Brazil's new soybean crop is growing well, and its production is expected to increase, which may put pressure on prices. Argentina's old soybean crop has increased in production, and its export and crushing have also increased [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal supply is gradually recovering, with the oil mill operating rate increasing, but the market demand is average. The rapeseed meal demand is also general, and the supply pressure still exists, with the price expected to fluctuate [5]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - The US soybean price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The domestic soybean meal is bearish, while the rapeseed meal is expected to be strong, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow. The inter - monthly spread of the futures market is expected to decline [6]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Adopt a bearish approach. - **Arbitrage**: Narrow the MRM09 spread. - **Options**: Use seagull put options [7]. 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit from Brazilian soybeans varies by shipping date. For example, the May shipment has a盘面 pressing profit of 98.04 and a spot pressing profit of - 82.76, with a change of - 2.84 compared to the previous day [8].

期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c 研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 【生猪日报】出栏压力增加 猪价整体下行 研究员：陈界正 1 / 4 研究所 农产品研发报告 在，市场大小猪价差维持高位，二育仍然相对谨慎。短期来看，生猪市场仍然有一定压 力。后续主要受存栏下降后供应端对于价格带动影响，上方空间相对有限。 生猪期货价格整体呈现一定震荡表现，近期现货价格整体呈现一定下行压力。由于 后续现货价格可能仍偏于下行，预计期货方面大方向仍然以偏下行为主。不过由于大小 猪价差持续拉大，预计后续出栏节奏可能有所放缓，价格压力可能有所好转。期货方面 在此期间可能有所上涨表现，但中长期来看，供应端压力仍然是市场主要影响因素，在 养殖端产能仍然维持相对高位的情况下，预计总体价格压力仍然相对明显，期货预计整 体仍以低位震荡运行为主。 交易策略： 单边：建议 11 月合约逢高布局空单 om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2026/3/2 | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

1 / 2 研究所 原油研发报告 研究所 原油研发报告 原油日报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 原油现货市场日报 研究员： 赵若晨 期货从业证号： F03151390 投资咨询从业证号： Z0023496 ： zhaoruochen_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 多家船东互保协会表示，由于伊朗及海湾地区的冲突，它们正在取消为船舶 提供的战争风险保险。根据其官网上日期为3月1日的通知，包括嘉德保险、 | | --- | --- | | | 斯库尔德保险、北英船东保险、伦敦保赔协会和美国船东保险在内的多家协 | | | 会表示，取消决定将于3月5日生效。通知称，战争风险保险将在伊朗水域、 | | | 海湾及其邻近水域被排除在承保范围之外。 | | 贸易物流 | 比利时国防部长特奥·弗兰肯表示，比利时于周日扣押了一艘属于俄罗斯"影 | | | 子船队"的油轮，该油轮涉嫌使用"虚假船旗和虚假文件"航行。西方因俄罗斯 | | | 入侵乌克兰而实施的制裁旨在切断其石油收入，这导致了帮助莫斯科维持原 | | | 油出口的油轮"影子船队"的兴起。 | | | 受中东战争及船舶供应日益紧张的影响，自上周五 ...