Report Industry Investment Rating - For polysilicon: Hold long positions [1] - For industrial silicon: Wait for a full correction [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polysilicon market, with progress in capacity integration and expected improvement in supply - demand, polysilicon futures are expected to rise and may hit a new high since listing. In the industrial silicon market, although the current inventory structure and production - demand situation lead to a weak price trend, the short - term downward space is limited, and long positions can be considered after a full correction [5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Supply - demand analysis**: In October, silicon wafer production increased by 3GW to 62GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 124,000 tons. Polysilicon production was around 130,000 tons, with a slight inventory build - up. The current total inventory is about 500,000 tons. In November, southwest polysilicon capacity may significantly reduce production, and silicon wafer production is likely to stay above 50GW [5] - **Trading logic**: The main short - term negative factor is the non - transferable warehouse receipts of the November contract, but their impact on prices is limited. High - inventory manufacturers have no incentive to lower prices, so the spot price is expected to be stable with an upward bias in the short and medium term [5] - **Operation strategy**: Hold long positions for single - side trading; conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell put options and buy call options [6] Industrial Silicon - **Supply - demand analysis**: This week, DMC weekly production decreased by 2.73% to 46,300 tons, polysilicon weekly production decreased by 1.28% to 31,500 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 58.6%. Industrial silicon weekly production increased by 2.09% to 97,500 tons. The total number of open furnaces remained at 318. Industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons to 562,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.57 million tons to 170,600 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 23,900 tons [7][27][28] - **Trading logic**: The current inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The resumption of production by leading manufacturers and the expected decline in polysilicon production in November have led to weak futures prices. However, the acceptance of high - priced industrial silicon by downstream has increased, and the actual transaction price of spot has not significantly decreased. The short - term downward space is limited [7] - **Operation strategy**: Close short positions for single - side trading; no options or arbitrage strategies are recommended for now [8] Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market trend**: This week, industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 8,430 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton [11] - **Downstream demand**: DMC production decreased by 2.73%, polysilicon production decreased by 1.28%, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.2 percentage points, and that of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.3 percentage points [14] - **Production**: Industrial silicon production increased by 2.09% to 97,500 tons this week. Yunnan, Sichuan, and Gansu reduced the number of open furnaces, while Xinjiang's leading manufacturers increased the number of open furnaces, and there are rumors of further increases [27] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons to 562,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.57 million tons to 170,600 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 23,900 tons [28] - **Related product prices**: Industrial silicon spot prices weakened this week, while DMC and terminal product prices of organic silicon increased slightly [33][38] - **Raw material prices**: The price of Xinjiang refined coal decreased [50] Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price trend**: This week, polysilicon spot prices increased. N - type polysilicon prices were in the range of 49.5 - 55 yuan/kg, and some low - price ranges of N - type re -投料 increased by 500 yuan/ton. Silicon wafer and battery prices remained stable, while some component prices increased [56][63][72] - **Component fundamentals**: Domestic component orders are average, with a neutral to high inventory. Component production in October decreased slightly to 46GW [81] - **Battery fundamentals**: Battery export demand is good, with a neutral inventory of 6.63GW. Due to the decrease in component production in October, battery production increased to 56GW [88] - **Silicon wafer fundamentals**: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises increased, with a weekly production of 14.35GW. Silicon wafer inventory is 17.31GW, and the production in October was 62GW, an increase of 3GW compared to August [93] - **Polysilicon fundamentals**: This week, polysilicon production slightly decreased, and factory inventory increased slightly to 253,000 tons. The expected production in October is about 130,000 tons [98]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong, with a 6.7% month - on - month increase in power battery production scheduling in October, limited month - on - month increase in energy storage due to high - end product capacity constraints but booming orders, and a shortage of electrolytes leading to significant price increases. The supply is facing disturbances, such as tax supplements in Yichun mines, potential production delays, and limited import increments from South America. The inventory is decreasing, indicating strong demand. In the short term, there is a possibility of the lithium carbonate price breaking through the resistance level of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan, and a short - term bullish view is recommended, with strategies including going long on dips, holding off on arbitrage, and selling out - of - the - money put options [5]. Summary by Directory Demand Analysis 1.1 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic sales**: In September, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%. New energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 1.296 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.5% and a month - on - month increase of 16.2%. The cumulative retail sales from January to September were 8.866 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.4%. The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in September was 57.8%. The cumulative power cell production from January to September increased by 45.6% year - on - year to 861.04 GWh [10]. - **Overseas market**: From January to August 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 12.371 million. European sales increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 2.347 million, and US sales increased by 8.1% year - on - year to 1.063 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to September 2025 reached 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [16]. 1.2 Energy Storage Market - Domestic energy storage orders are strong due to "rush - to - export" demand and中标 projects in regions like the Middle East, South America, and Australia. From January to September, China's energy storage cell production was 355.1 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 57%. The energy storage cell inventory is at a three - year low, and the delivery cycle is extended, with expected good performance in October to support lithium carbonate consumption [21]. 1.3 October Battery and Cathode Production Scheduling - In October, the electrolyte production scheduling was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 46%. The iron - lithium battery production scheduling was 113.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 49%. The ternary battery production scheduling was 22.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 12%. The ternary cathode production scheduling of 4 companies was 26,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 15%. The iron - lithium cathode production scheduling of 4 companies was 130,000 tons, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 19% [24][29]. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production - This week, the weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 431 tons, with increased production from salt lakes and mica, and limited increment from spodumene. From January to September, domestic lithium carbonate production was 684,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 42%, and the production scheduling for October was 89,900 tons. The treatment plan for mines in Yichun is yet to be released, and 8 mines have submitted reserve verification reports [34]. 2.2 Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - Not elaborated in text, only data charts are provided [36]. 2.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply - From January to August 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 153,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, Chile's lithium carbonate exports were 16,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons, and exports to China were 11,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,880 tons. In October, there is unlikely to be a significant increase in lithium salt imports. In September 2025, the Port of Hedland in Australia shipped 186,424 tons of spodumene concentrate to China, a month - on - month increase of 45.6% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3% [43]. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Forecast - Not elaborated in text, only data charts are provided [45]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - This week, the social inventory decreased by nearly 2,143 tons, with a 464 - ton decrease in smelter inventory, a 2,030 - ton decrease in downstream inventory, and a 350 - ton increase in other inventory. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 12,000 tons to 30,600 tons, indicating strong spot demand [49].

避险情绪高涨 贵金属波动放大 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 贵金属基本面数据追踪 13 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 避险情绪高涨 贵金属波动放大 ◼【综合分析】 宏观面：近期，美国政府停摆风波仍在继续，影响美国重要宏观数据的公布，增加了美联储制定货币政策的难度和市场的不确定性；中美贸 易摩擦再度升级，尽管市场普遍预期最终会以特朗普"TACO"结束，但短期的不确定性仍令市场感到紧张；叠加美国两家地区银行因遭遇信 贷欺诈发生爆雷（此前不久摩根大通和第五三银行也发生过类似的风险），本次地区性银行的爆雷则点燃了市场对于美国银行业信贷风险的 担忧。在多个风险事件较为集中发生的背景下，市场避险情绪不断高涨，刺激金、银维持单边强劲走势，不断刷出历 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global aluminum supply-demand situation remains tight in the medium term, supporting the upward trend of aluminum prices. Short-term view is to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices. For alumina, the price is expected to stay at a low level, and more attention should be paid to further capacity changes [3][99]. Summary by Directory Strategy Outlook - Aluminum - **Derivatives**: Temporarily on the sidelines [3]. - **Macro**: Trump's tariff policy on China has escalated, but there are signs of potential negotiation. The 20th Fourth Plenary Session will study the 15th Five-Year Plan [3]. - **Industry Supply**: Overseas, the first - phase of Indonesia's Juwon project with 250,000 - ton capacity is in production. In China, some projects are expected to start production by the end of the year, while others may face delays [3]. - **Industry Demand**: The average weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 62.5%, down 1.4 percentage points year - on - year. Different sub - industries show varying degrees of change in operating rates [3][64]. - **Inventory**: After the National Day holiday, aluminum ingot inventories increased seasonally but then decreased due to price adjustments. Overall inventory is expected to remain above 600,000 tons in the short term [3]. - **Trading Logic**: The panic caused by tariffs has improved, and the tight supply - demand situation supports the upward trend of aluminum prices. Short - term strategy is to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices; arbitrage and options are temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Strategy Outlook - Alumina - **Logic Analysis**: The oversupply of alumina will become more prominent after the downstream electrolytic aluminum plants complete their stockpiling. Some producers have started minor production cuts, but it will take time to restore the supply - demand balance. The price is expected to stay at a low level [99]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: Alumina price is expected to stay at a low level, and more attention should be paid to further capacity changes. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily on the sidelines. - **Options**: Temporarily on the sidelines [100]. LME Market Performance - Includes data on aluminum ingot import and export profits, LME aluminum speculative fund net positions, LME aluminum price trends, overseas mainstream consumption area spot trade premiums, LME aluminum spot premiums and discounts, and LME aluminum inventories [5][7][9]. Domestic and Overseas Aluminum Inventory Performance - Covers aluminum ingot social inventories, aluminum rod social inventories, bonded area aluminum ingot inventories, aluminum ingot and aluminum rod weekly outbound volumes, and LME aluminum inventory seasonal charts [18][19][21]. Spread Situation - Analyzes price differences such as the Shanghai - Guangdong spread, mainstream consumption area basis, and differences between Shandong and East China aluminum prices [23]. Aluminum Primary Processing Product Processing Fees - Discusses processing fees for products like aluminum rods and aluminum plates in different regions, as well as the scrap - refined aluminum price difference [31][33][37]. Recycled Aluminum Alloy Market Situation - Covers waste aluminum production, ADC12 price, recycled aluminum alloy production, and related price differences and inventories [40][45][48]. Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Side - Analyzes China's electrolytic aluminum supply volume, production profit, net import volume, and the expected changes in domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity [52][54][58]. Aluminum Processing Operating Rate Situation - The average weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 62.5%, with different trends in various sub - industries [64]. Photovoltaic Component Production - In October, the expected photovoltaic component production is 51 - 52GW, with domestic production decreasing and overseas production remaining stable [68]. Automobile Sales - In 2025, China's total automobile sales are expected to reach 32.9 million, with significant growth in new energy vehicles, which will drive aluminum consumption [72]. Real Estate Completion - From January to August, the national housing completion area decreased by 17.0% year - on - year, indicating a weak real estate market [74]. Power Investment and Cable Consumption - As of September 2025, the domestic aluminum rod sample production capacity has expanded rapidly. Orders are expected to be saturated in the fourth quarter and next year, and the weekly operating rate in October is expected to remain stable or slightly increase [86]. Home Appliance Production Scheduling - In September 2025, the total production scheduling of three major white - goods decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the production scheduling of air conditioners is expected to decline in the future [90]. Export Trends - In August, the total export of aluminum products decreased year - on - year. Although the impact of tariffs has eased, the export volume is expected to decline this year [94]. Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance Outlook - Forecasts the global and Chinese aluminum supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2027, including production, demand, and balance [95]. Alumina - Strategy Outlook - **Raw Material**: Domestic bauxite supply in Shanxi and Henan is restricted by rain, while imported bauxite supply is increasing but the price remains stable [99]. - **Supply**: Some enterprises in Shanxi and Henan have carried out maintenance or production cuts. The national alumina operating capacity has decreased, and the import window has been open [99]. Alumina - Cost and Profit - In September 2025, the average profit of the alumina industry decreased. The profits of enterprises in different regions vary, and some high - cost regions are close to cash - cost losses [105][106]. Alumina - Production Capacity - The operating capacity of alumina has decreased marginally, with some enterprises in Shanxi and Henan adjusting production [110]. Alumina - Overseas Market - The overseas alumina transaction price is decreasing, and the import window remains open. More imported alumina is expected to arrive at ports by the end of the month [114]. Alumina - Futures Inventory - Alumina futures inventories continue to increase, with different inventory changes in various regions [118]. Bauxite - The price of bauxite remains stagnant. Domestic supply is affected by weather, and imported supply is increasing, but the price shows little change [121].

锌：出口窗口打开 比值或有回归 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 市场数据 第三章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 交易逻辑与策略 228/210/172 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 181/181/181 ◼ 产业供需： 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ➢ 矿端，本周进口锌矿亏损较上周继续扩大，冶炼厂以国产锌矿采购为主，周内进口成交依旧清淡，进口锌矿成交加工费依旧高位，但随着国内加工费走跌，目前部分进口锌矿 报盘存在一定下调现象，若后续比价修复，或对进口锌矿加工费存在一定 ...

Report Title - Acceleration of Inventory Accumulation, Nickel Prices Under Pressure [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to remain in a state of high surplus in the next two years, with increasing global nickel inventories and a difficult - to - reverse supply - demand surplus pattern. Nickel prices are predicted to experience wide - range fluctuations with a downward - shifting center of gravity, testing cost support. Stainless steel may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spread Tracking and Inventory 1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory Rapidly Accumulating - Global visible nickel inventory reaches 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons (an increase of 13,000 tons this week), SHFE inventory at 34,000 tons, and SMM's six - region social inventory at 48,000 tons (with a slight increase) [13]. 1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Slightly Increasing After the Holiday - Social inventory increased during the National Day holiday and continued to rise slightly after the holiday, indicating weak current demand [11][18]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Nickel 2.1.1 Supply: High - level Supply of Refined Nickel in China and India - SMM statistics show that the cumulative output of refined nickel from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 300,000 tons. The total domestic refined nickel output in October is expected to remain high at 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons from the previous month. From January to August 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 36,800 tons, compared with a net export of 15,000 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to August 2025 was 300,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55% [26]. 2.1.2 Demand: Stable Consumption of Electroplating and Alloys - The cumulative consumption of pure nickel for batteries from January to September increased by 1% year - on - year to 216,000 tons. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel decreased slightly in September but remained above the boom - bust line, mainly supported by the stainless - steel PMI at 50. The stainless - steel consumption in October fell short of expectations, which may affect the overall nickel consumption [29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel 2.2.1 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore Prices Stable with an Upward Bias - The FOB price of nickel ore is expected to rise due to the approaching rainy season in the Surigao region of the Philippines and reduced overall market supply. However, price increases are difficult due to the weak nickel - iron market. In Indonesia's domestic trade, the second - round benchmark price of domestic nickel ore in October increased month - on - month, and the premium rose slightly to +$25 - 26 [31]. 2.2.2 Raw Materials - Stable NPI Prices - The prices of high - nickel iron and NPI remained stable. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia from January to September showed certain trends, and the inventory of NPI in China also had corresponding changes [33][34][36]. 2.2.3 Raw Materials - Stable Chromium - based Prices - Chromium ore prices remained stable. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in October 2025 increased month - on - month. The estimated cold - rolling cash cost is around $13,500 per ton, and the integrated cost reaches $13,000 per ton [38][40]. 2.2.4 Raw Materials - Cold - rolling Cost Inversion - On October 17, the prices of various stainless - steel raw materials showed certain changes compared with the previous days, and the cold - rolling cost was in an inverted state [42]. 2.2.5 Supply - Increased Stainless - steel Mill Production Scheduling in October - It is estimated that the output of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India from January to September was 3.345 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output in both countries increased month - on - month, but production cuts may occur due to cost inversion. From January to August 2025, China's stainless - steel imports decreased by 23% year - on - year, exports increased by 3% year - on - year, and the net export volume increased by 21% year - on - year [51]. 2.2.6 Demand - Shipbuilding Growth Provides Support - The cumulative year - on - year growth of shipbuilding plate output from January to August reached 29%, while the growth rates of other terminal fields were not optimistic [53]. 2.3 New Energy Vehicles 2.3.1 Domestic Sales with Seasonal Month - on - Month Growth - In September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in September were 1.296 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.5% and a month - on - month increase of 16.2%. The cumulative retail sales from January to September were 8.866 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.4%. The cumulative year - on - year growth of power battery cell production from January to September was 45.6% to 86.104 GWh [60]. 2.3.2 Slowed Electrification Process in Europe and the United States - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of global new - energy vehicle sales was 23.5% to 12.371 million, the cumulative year - on - year growth of European new - energy vehicle sales was 27.4% to 2.347 million, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of US new - energy vehicle sales was 8.1% to 1.063 million. From January to September 2025, China's new - energy vehicle exports were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. 2.3.3 Nickel Sulfate Market - Growth of Ternary Materials and Tight Precursor Supply - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year production of nickel sulfate in China decreased by 13.6% to 246,000 tons, the cumulative year - on - year production of ternary precursors decreased by 13% to 540,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production of ternary cathode materials increased by 12% to 569,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but the growth of precursor production was less than expected [67]. 2.3.4 Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials - Recovery Growth of Intermediate Product Output - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year production of MHP in Indonesia increased by 53% to 325,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 34% to 138,000 tons. The cost of MHP increased, and the price remained firm [71]. 2.4 Large Increase in Pure Nickel Imports, Obvious Domestic Surplus - The supply - demand balance of primary nickel and pure nickel in China shows an obvious surplus situation [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals show a double - decline in supply and demand. The change in the supply side is slow, while the demand side has a continuous downward expectation, which suppresses the upside space of prices. The valuation level and cost side have certain support, and the overall trend is mainly bottom - range oscillation [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Supply side shows differentiation, with a slight decline in ferrosilicon production but a slight increase in silicomanganese production. The total supply remains high. Demand side has a slight decline in the molten iron output of 247 steel mills. With the end of the traditional steel peak season and poor inventory reduction, there is a downward expectation for raw material demand. The cost side is supported by strong动力煤 prices, stable electricity prices in ferroalloy production areas, and low manganese ore inventory [5] - **Macro - aspects**: The Fourth Plenary Session next week to announce the 14th Five - Year Plan may boost market sentiment, but the short - term stimulus is expected to be limited. The anti - involution trading has also driven the alloy market, but the effect is weakening due to high supply [5] 3.1.2 Strategies - **Single - side**: Bottom - range oscillation - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see - **Options**: Sell straddle combinations on rallies [6] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.4095 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0059 million tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types is 19,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons, and for silicomanganese is 121,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons [11] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 35.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. The weekly supply of ferrosilicon is 112,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,000 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 43.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. The weekly supply of silicomanganese is 208,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,600 tons [12] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 17, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 69,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 263,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons [13] 3.2.2 Other Data - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon in different regions are provided, showing losses in most regions [30][40] - **Price and Basis**: Market prices and basis of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are presented [18] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: Data on the production, operating rate, and capacity utilization of steel mills and ferroalloy enterprises are shown [23][28] - **Import and Export**: Data on the net import of manganese ore and net export of ferrosilicon are presented [66] - **Inventory**: Inventories of alloy factories, steel mills, and ports for manganese ore and ferrosilicon are provided [72][75]

目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | 钢材：板材压力大，原料端支撑仍存 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量201.16万吨（-3.62），热卷小样本产量321.84万吨（-1.45）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均240.95万吨（-0.59），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率33.2%（+4.8）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在 3448（折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-262.61元/吨左右，谷电成本3283（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电 利润-98元/吨。近期废钢价格上升，电炉成本抬升，钢价下跌，短流程利润下滑，但电炉仍然增产；长流程钢利润继 续收缩，目前整体转向亏损，铁水延续240万吨以上；废钢日耗在52万吨，总体钢材生产积极性仍强，存在一定压力。 需求：Mysteel统计本周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the egg market from aspects of spot, supply, cost, and demand, indicating that the egg market is currently in a state of high supply and low demand, with weak egg prices and reduced breeding profits. It is expected that in the short - term, without significant improvement, egg prices will remain weak, and suggests that previous short positions be closed for profit [5][10][13][17]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.05 yuan/jin, the same as last Friday. Due to continuous rainy days at the beginning of the week, market demand declined, inventory accumulated, and egg prices fell below the feed cost. After the weather improved, terminal replenishment was active, inventory decreased, and egg prices rebounded slightly. However, overall, egg prices were still weak [5]. - After the National Day, the demand in the egg - laying hen market weakened, the downstream consumption was insufficient, and the confidence of the breeding end in the future was insufficient. The price of old hens was under pressure to decline. As the price of old hens fell to a low point, the breeding end's reluctance to sell gradually emerged, and the price of old hens rebounded slightly at the end of the week [5]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - At the beginning of the week, affected by egg prices, the enthusiasm of each link to purchase was average, and the inventory in the producing areas was high. Later, as egg prices bottomed out, the breeding end was reluctant to sell at low prices, and the inventory decreased. The shipment volume in the main producing areas of national egg - laying hens showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. In the week of October 16, the slaughter volume of egg - laying hens in the main producing areas was 20.32 million, an increase of 2.8% from the previous week, and the average slaughter age was 499 days, the same as the previous week [10]. - In September, the inventory of laying hens in the country was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6%, higher than expected. The monthly hatching volume of egg - laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. Without considering delayed or concentrated slaughter, the estimated inventory of laying hens from October 2025 to January 2026 is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [10]. 3.3 Cost Analysis - As of October 16, the corn price was around 2,271 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,493 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.74 yuan/jin for eggs. This week, the average egg price continued to decline, and the breeding profit decreased month - on - month. As of October 17, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 12, the expected profit of egg - laying hen breeding was - 0.51 yuan/feather, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [13]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - At the beginning of the week, after the National Day, affected by the weather, market sales decreased slightly. After egg prices bottomed out, the market's bargain - hunting sentiment increased, and sales increased. Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the low prices of substitutes weaken the positive support for egg demand. As of September 11, the egg sales volume in national representative sales areas was 7,374 tons, an increase of 2.7% compared with the previous week [16]. - After the National Day holiday, due to bad weather, transportation was restricted, and the inventory in each link was high. In the second half of the week, as the weather improved and egg prices rebounded, the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased month - on - month. As of October 17, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.45 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, a decrease of 0.23 days from the previous week [16]. - This week, the vegetable price index and pork price both rebounded slightly. On October 16, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 96.51, and as of October 15, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 15.33 yuan/kg, with little change from the previous week [16]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The inventory of laying hens on the supply side remains high, while the demand side is generally weak. It is expected that egg prices will be weak in the short - term, and the nearby contracts are likely to fluctuate weakly. - Unilateral: Close previous short positions for profit. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the international market, the macro - situation of the US cotton market shows no significant changes. With a high - quality rate at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years, the US cotton is expected to show a volatile trend. In the domestic market, as new cotton is being acquired and the acquisition price stabilizes while downstream demand remains unchanged, the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][25]. - As new cotton is increasingly on the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand on the demand side is general, with limited improvement, so its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [25][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: With no obvious changes in the macro - situation and a high - quality rate at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years, the US cotton is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of October 10, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 269,100 tons, accounting for 8.6% of the estimated annual US cotton output, 27% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of US upland cotton was 9.57%, 27% slower year - on - year, and the inspection of Pima cotton had not started. The weekly deliverable ratio was 69.2%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 80.6%, 7 percentage points higher year - on - year and 4 percentage points lower quarter - on - quarter [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of September 18, 2025, the weekly contract signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% week - on - week decrease; the weekly shipment volume was 31,100 tons, a 14% week - on - week increase [8]. - **CFTC Position**: As of September 23, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 23.65% (a 0.34 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease) [8]. - **Brazil**: The 2024/25 annual cotton output in Brazil is expected to be 4.077 million tons, a 16,000 - ton increase from the previous month. The 2025/26 annual output is expected to be 4.031 million tons, a 46,000 - ton decrease year - on - year [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan in the 2025/26 season reached 472,000 tons, a 49% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest September global cotton production and sales forecast by the USDA, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a 230,000 - ton month - on - month increase; the total consumption was 25.68 million tons, an 184,000 - ton increase; the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [8]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The domestic new cotton harvesting is in a high - incidence period. The harvesting progress in northern Xinjiang is nearly 80%, and about 30% in southern Xinjiang. The market speculates on the production reduction in southern Xinjiang, driving up the seed cotton price. As of October 16, 2025, the operating rate of national ginneries increased to 76.9%, a 62.5% increase from the previous week. As of October 15, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection volume was 491,499 tons, a 113.21% year - on - year increase. As of October 10, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.1554 million tons, a 174,600 - ton (17.80%) increase from the previous week [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of October 16, 2025, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.6%, a 0.20% increase from the previous week. The yarn inventory of spinning mills decreased by 1% month - on - month [25]. 3.3 Option Strategy - Volatility Trend: The HV on the previous day was 8.4519, with a slight decrease in volatility. - Option Strategy Recommendation: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7661, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.8549. Both call and put trading volumes increased. It is recommended to wait and see [39]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: During the holiday, as new cotton is being acquired, the market focus shifts to the opening price of new cotton. With a high cotton output in Xinjiang and general acquisition enthusiasm of ginneries, there is no large - scale rush for acquisition. As new cotton is increasingly on the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand is general, with limited improvement, so its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [42]. - **Single - Side Trading**: It is expected that the US cotton will mostly fluctuate in the future, and the Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to trade at an appropriate time [42]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [42]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Mid - end Situation**: Information on the operating load of pure - cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn inventory days, and grey fabric inventory days is presented through historical data charts [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory from 2015 to 2024 are provided [51]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: Information on the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the average basis of US upland cotton in seven major markets, and the basis between the spot price of C32S cotton yarn and the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton yarn is presented through historical data charts [54].