1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: The stock index futures showed a strengthened style conversion, with the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai 50 indices performing strongly while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices were weak. The market is expected to continue its upward - trending in an oscillatory manner. The treasury bond futures rose and then fell, continuing the oscillation pattern. The direct impact of the rumored new monetary policy tool on the bond market is considered neutral [21][22][23]. - **Agriculture**: For protein meal, the supply pressure persists, and the price on the disk is under pressure for adjustment. The international sugar price fluctuates greatly, while the domestic sugar price is slightly stronger. The external - market prices of the oil and fat sector have declined. The northern port's spot price of corn and corn starch has fallen, and the disk price is oscillating at a high level. The pig price is continuously declining due to the supply pressure. The peanut spot price is stable, and the disk price is oscillating at the bottom. The egg price has increased due to pre - festival stocking. The apple price is firm due to good pre - festival sales. The fundamentals of cotton and cotton yarn have changed little, and the cotton price is supported [26][28][35]. - **Black Metals**: The demand for steel is marginally weakening, and the steel price will continue to oscillate following the market sentiment. The fundamental influence on coking coal and coke is decreasing, while the capital disturbance is increasing. The terminal demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the ore price is oscillating. For ferroalloys, due to the sharp shock in the night - session commodities, some of the previous long positions should be closed for profit [56][57][61]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The sharp decline in the US stock market has triggered a huge shock in the gold and silver markets. The liquidity squeeze has led to the decline of platinum and palladium. The concern about AI has caused the copper price to quickly retrace. The alumina price is mainly oscillating. The electrolytic aluminum price is oscillating widely at a high level, and the risk of capital leaving the market should be vigilant. The market liquidity of cast aluminum alloy has tightened, and the alloy has corrected with the sector. The zinc price should pay attention to the change of market sentiment. The lead price is in an oscillatory range due to weak supply and demand. The nickel price is operating at a high level under regulatory cooling. The stainless - steel price is in the off - season, supported by cost. The industrial silicon price should pay attention to the production - cut actions of large manufacturers. The polysilicon price should focus on the spot transaction in the short term. The lithium carbonate price is operating at a high level before the Spring Festival under regulatory cooling and tight supply - demand. The sharp decline in the US stock market has caused a significant retracement of the tin price [66][72][76]. - **Shipping**: Geopolitical conflicts remain unresolved, and the spot freight rates of shipping companies continue to be adjusted downward [112][113]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The crude oil price fluctuates greatly. The asphalt price is oscillating at a high level supported by cost. The fuel oil inventory in Singapore decreased significantly last week, and geopolitical factors are favorable. The geopolitical disturbance of LPG has intensified. The geopolitical risk of natural gas has fermented, and the market volatility has increased again. The polyester sector, including PX and PTA, is strengthening due to geopolitical disturbance and cost support. The cost support for pure benzene and styrene is increasing, and they maintain an upward momentum. The ethylene glycol still has obvious inventory - accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival. The short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are following the cost side to be stronger. The cost support for propylene is increasing. The polyolefin has marginal production cuts, and long positions should be held. The caustic soda price is oscillating. The PVC is operating strongly. The soda ash and glass are in an oscillatory rebound pattern. The methanol price is strongly rising. The urea price is oscillating widely. The pulp price continues to oscillate widely. The high inventory of offset printing paper suppresses the increase of the paper price. The spot price of logs is moderately strong. The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber are strong due to the macro - environment. The butadiene rubber is also strong due to the macro - environment [116][118][123]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The stock index futures showed a strengthened style conversion. On Thursday, the Shanghai 50 index rose 1.65%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.76%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.97%, and the CSI 1000 index fell 0.8%. The main contracts of stock index futures also showed different trends, with IH2603 rising 1.95%, IF2603 rising 1%, IC2603 falling 1.16%, and IM2603 falling 0.53% [20][21]. - **Investment Logic**: The market was differentiated. The gold, non - ferrous, and oil and gas sectors performed strongly, while the technology stocks were weak. The market turnover exceeded 3 trillion yuan, and the style conversion is expected to continue. The market is expected to maintain an upward - trending in an oscillatory manner [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect an oscillatory upward trend; arbitrage: conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2609 and short ETF; options: use a bull - spread strategy [22]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year main contract rising 0.07%, the 10 - year main contract rising 0.06%, the 5 - year main contract rising 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract almost flat. The yields of inter - bank treasury bonds of major tenors fluctuated, with the medium - and short - term bonds performing better than the long - term bonds [23]. - **Investment Logic**: The central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity led to narrow fluctuations in the market's capital supply. The bond market sentiment was affected by the rumor of a new monetary policy tool and the performance of the stock and commodity markets. The direct impact of the new monetary policy tool on the bond market is considered neutral. The current capital market has relatively abundant liquidity, but if it deviates from the real - economy demand, the regulatory attitude may change [23][24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: close the long positions of the TL contract at high prices; arbitrage: narrow the spread between new and old ultra - long - term bonds; options: not mentioned [24]. Agriculture Protein Meal - **External - market Situation**: The CBOT soybean index fell 0.69% to 1083.5 cents per bushel, and the CBOT soybean meal index fell 1.05% to 300.9 US dollars per short ton [26]. - **Related Information**: The US soybean and soybean meal export sales decreased. Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to increase. The domestic soybean crushing volume decreased slightly, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased [26][27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The overall supply - demand of US soybeans is relatively loose, and the center of gravity is expected to move downward. The domestic soybean meal cost is under pressure, but the short - term spot price may be supported. The medium - and long - term pressure on the disk price still exists [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: wait and see in the short term and sell short at high prices; arbitrage: expand the MRM spread; options: sell a strangle strategy [27]. Sugar - **External - market Changes**: The ICE US raw sugar main contract price fluctuated, falling 0.01 (- 0.07%) to 14.71 cents per pound. The London white sugar main contract fell 1.3 (- 0.31%) to 411.8 US dollars per ton [29]. - **Important Information**: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased slightly, and the EU plans to suspend duty - free sugar imports. The domestic main - producing areas' white sugar spot prices are basically stable, and the overall transaction is generally good [30][31]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, the influence of Brazilian sugar is decreasing, and the northern hemisphere's sugar production is mostly in an increasing cycle. The Indian sugar production may increase more than expected, putting downward pressure on the international sugar price. However, due to the low price and the strong performance of commodities, the US sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Domestically, the sugar supply is under pressure, but the low price and the support from the international market may limit the decline. The sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in a large range. It is recommended to buy low and sell high according to the macro - sentiment; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell a put option [32]. Black Metals Steel - **Important Information**: Most independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills will stop production in February. The US initial jobless claims were slightly higher than expected. This week, the production of the five major steel products increased, and the inventory accumulation accelerated. The construction steel demand declined, while the hot - rolled coil demand increased [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated strongly at night. The steel price is affected by the market sentiment. The cost has support, but the winter demand decline and inventory accumulation limit the upward space of the steel price. It is expected to continue to oscillate following the macro - sentiment before the Spring Festival [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: oscillate following the market sentiment; arbitrage: short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio and hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread; options: wait and see [57]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Important Information**: The coking coal online auction had a high non - trading rate, and the Mongolian coking coal market was strong, but the transaction was cold. The coke and coking coal warehouse - receipt prices are provided [58][59]. - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal price increase on the disk is mainly driven by capital. Fundamentally, the supply is not tight, and the downstream winter - storage demand is weak. The spot price has cooled. The influence of fundamentals has decreased, and the capital and sentiment factors are more important. It is expected to be strong in the near future [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: be strong; hold long positions and consider buying on dips; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell an out - of - the - money put option [60]. Non - ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The London gold and silver prices fluctuated greatly. The US stock market decline triggered a shock in the precious - metal market. The US dollar index also fluctuated [67]. - **Important Information**: Trump will announce the candidate for the Fed chairman next week, and there are geopolitical events such as the cease - fire in Ukraine and the Iranian naval exercise [67][68]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in the US stock market led to market panic and a tightening of market liquidity. The adjustment of gold and silver is mainly due to technical factors and risk release. The overall macro - logic has not changed [68][69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: conservative investors should take profits at high prices, while aggressive investors can hold long positions cautiously; arbitrage: go long on the external market and short on the domestic market for silver; options: take profits on the bull - call spread strategy for gold and silver [69][72]. Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 2.03%, and the LME copper price rose 4.46%. The LME and COMEX copper inventories increased [76]. - **Important Information**: The concerns about AI investment returns have affected the copper price. The copper production in Zambia increased in 2025, while Southern Copper Corp. expects a decline in production in the next two years [76]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in the ore grade in Peru and the AI - related stock decline have affected the copper price. The LME inventory is expected to continue to increase, and the domestic market is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The copper price is expected to continue the upward trend, but the volatility will increase [77]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: aggressive investors can hold long positions above 105,000 - 106,000 yuan per ton; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [77][78]. Shipping Container Shipping - **Spot Situation**: The spot freight rate of the European line decreased. The 1/23 SCFI European line reported 1595 US dollars per TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83%; the 1/26 SCFIS European line reported 1859.31 points, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9% [112]. - **Important Information**: There are geopolitical events such as Trump's executive order and the Iranian naval exercise [112]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for container shipping is declining, and the supply has a small - scale decrease. The traditional off - season is coming, and the rush - shipment is less than expected. The geopolitical situation is unstable, and the European line is difficult to resume large - scale shipping in the first half of the year [113]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: wait and see due to many short - term disturbances; arbitrage: take profits on most of the 6 - 10 calendar - spread long positions and hold a small part, and consider rolling operations on dips [115]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.5% to 65.42 US dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.4% to 70.71 US dollars per barrel [117]. - **Related Information**: There are geopolitical events such as Trump's military order and the Iranian naval exercise. Venezuela reforms its petroleum law, and Saudi Aramco may lower the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in March [117]. - **Logic Analysis**: The military - conflict risk has increased, bringing a premium to the crude oil price. It is not recommended to chase high prices. The international oil price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the Brent main contract should focus on the 67 - 69 US - dollar range [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold long positions and do not chase high prices; arbitrage: the calendar spread is strong; options: wait and see [118]. Asphalt - **External - market Situation**: The WTI2603 and Brent2604 contracts rose. The BU2603 and BU2604 contracts in the night session also rose [119]. - **Important Information**: The spot price of asphalt in different regions has different trends. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost is supported by the crude oil price [120][121]. - **Logic Analysis**: The asphalt price follows the crude oil price to rise. The demand is weakening, but the low - inventory supply provides support. The raw - material price is rising [121]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: be strongly oscillating and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [122].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily sugar report dated January 29, 2026, focusing on sugar market analysis and trading strategies [2] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09 closed at 5,269, up 71 (1.37%) with a trading volume of 39,061 and an open interest of 110,211 [3] - SR01 closed at 5,358, up 50 (0.94%) with a trading volume of 902 and an open interest of 1,279 [3] - SR05 closed at 5,257, up 70 (1.35%) with a trading volume of 342,769 and an open interest of 463,208 [3] Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5370 yuan/ton, Kunming 5190 yuan/ton, Wuhan 5630 yuan/ton, Nanning 5340 yuan/ton, Bayuquan 5460 yuan/ton, Rizhao 5415 yuan/ton, Xi'an 5790 yuan/ton [3] - Price changes: Liuzhou up 40 yuan/ton, Kunming up 35 yuan/ton, Wuhan unchanged, Nanning up 40 yuan/ton, Bayuquan unchanged, Rizhao unchanged, Xi'an up 30 yuan/ton [3] Basis and Spread - Basis: Liuzhou 113, Kunming -67, Wuhan 373, Nanning 83, Bayuquan 203, Rizhao 158, Xi'an 533 [3] - Spread: SR05 - SR01 spread was -101, up 20; SR09 - SR05 spread was 12, up 1; SR09 - SR01 spread was -89, up 21 [3] Import Profit - Brazilian imports: ICE主力 14.77, premium 0.17, freight 32.75, in - quota price 3982, out - of - quota price 5057, spread with Liuzhou 313, spread with Rizhao 358, spread with the futures market 301 [3] - Thai imports: ICE主力 14.77, premium 1.05, freight 18.00, in - quota price 4033, out - of - quota price 5124, spread with Liuzhou 246, spread with Rizhao 291, spread with the futures market 234 [3] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - As of the week of January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 54 (previously 51), and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7826 million tons (previously 1.7816 million tons) [5] - The EU Commission proposed to suspend duty - free sugar imports to relieve pressure on sugar producers. In the 2024/25 season, EU's raw sugar imports reached 587,000 tons (up 19% year - on - year), about 95% from Brazil; refined sugar imports were 155,000 tons (up 5% year - on - year), about 43% from Brazil [5] - Main sugar - producing areas' spot prices were generally stable with fair trading volume [5][7] Logical Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar supply pressure will ease as the harvest season approaches. The market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. Indian sugar production may exceed expectations, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to low sugar prices and strong commodities, US sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [8] - Domestically, China's sugar production is at its peak, and this season's output is likely to increase significantly. In 2025, China imported 4.9188 million tons of sugar, an increase of 562,200 tons year - on - year, adding pressure to the domestic market. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar prices are expected to continue to decline, but considering the low prices and cost support, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. The May contract is under supply pressure above and cost support below, and is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. It is recommended to buy low and sell high according to macro sentiment, as the upward space is limited [9] - Arbitrage: Hold off on trading [10] - Options: Sell put options [11] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes figures on monthly inventory, production, spot prices, basis, and spreads in Guangxi and Yunnan, as well as other related data [14][16][18][20][21][24]

研究所 黑色研发报告 研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2026 年 01 月 29 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 765.5 | 752.5 | 13.0 | I01-I05 | -33.0 | -30.5 | -2.5 | | DCE05 | 798.5 | 783.0 | 15.5 | I05-I09 | 19.5 | 18.5 | 1.0 | | DCE09 | 779.0 | 764.5 | 14.5 | I09-I01 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 1.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 786 | 792 | -6 | 854 | 93 | 63 | 81 | | 纽曼粉 | 786 | 792 | -6 | 860 | 99 | 69 | 87 | | 麦克粉 | 785 | 789 | -4 | 867 | 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel futures market maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend today, with overall spot trading being generally favorable, mainly due to futures-spot purchases, while downstream purchases were poor. Prices generally rose following the futures market, and the basis narrowed. - This week's data from Steel Union showed that the production of the five major steel products accelerated, with hot-rolled coils increasing production faster than rebar. The total steel inventory accelerated the process of inventory accumulation, with rebar accumulating inventory while hot-rolled coils were still reducing inventory. Overall, the social inventory pressure was greater than the factory inventory. - Recently, as the weather has turned cold, downstream construction sites have gradually shut down, leading to a decline in construction steel demand. Although steel exports have recently declined, there is still a demand for inventory replenishment in the manufacturing industry before the Spring Festival, and the demand for hot-rolled coils continues to grow, performing better than the same period last year. - Coal mines increased production in January, and Mongolian coal imports increased rapidly, but steel mills continued to replenish their inventories. It is expected that coal mines may gradually take holidays in February. The structural shortage of PB powder has not been resolved, and the first quarter is also the traditional off-season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills have a rigid demand for inventory replenishment, providing cost support. - Recently, molten iron production has continued to recover, supporting raw material costs. However, the marginal decline in winter demand and continuous inventory accumulation have also limited the further upward space for steel prices. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate following macro - sentiment before the Spring Festival. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - **Futures**: RB05 was at 3157 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan from yesterday; RB10 was at 3203 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; RB01 was at 3228 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The 05 - contract rebar's profit on the futures market was - 128 yuan, down 9 yuan; the 10 - contract was - 81 yuan, down 6 yuan; the 01 - contract was - 72 yuan, down 7 yuan. [2] - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Nanjing Xicheng was 3360 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong Shiheng was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan Tanggang was 3090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The profit from adjusted rolling products was 40 yuan, up 10 yuan; the profit of East China rebar was - 104 yuan, up 12 yuan; the profit of Tangshan rebar was - 282 yuan, up 5 yuan; the profit of Shandong rebar was - 446 yuan, down 110 yuan; the profit of Tangshan billet was - 217 yuan, down 4 yuan; the profit of East China electric - arc furnace at peak electricity was - 166 yuan, down 5 yuan; at off - peak electricity was - 7 yuan, down 5 yuan. [2] 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Futures**: HC05 was at 3308 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; HC10 was at 3330 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; HC01 was at 3350 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil's profit on the futures market was 23 yuan, down 15 yuan; the 10 - contract was 46 yuan, down 11 yuan; the 01 - contract was 50 yuan, down 11 yuan. [2] - **Spot**: The price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged; Lecong Rigang was 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Shanghai Angang was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The profit of Tianjin hot - rolled coil was - 369 yuan, down 5 yuan; the profit of East China hot - rolled coil was - 137 yuan, up 13 yuan. [2] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3230 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye was 3150 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan (+20), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3170 yuan (unchanged). [5] - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The market will maintain a volatile trend. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see. [6][7][8] - **Important Information** - At the beginning of the new year, the container ship market has once again witnessed a boom in ship orders. Evergreen Marine, a shipping giant in Taiwan, China, has placed orders for 23 ships at two mainland shipyards with an investment of tens of billions. - The overall production of the five major steel products increased by 3.58 tons. The factory inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 0.84 tons month - on - month, the social inventory increased by 22.27 tons, and the total inventory increased by 21.43 tons. [9][10][12] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the basis, price differentials, and profit margins of rebar and hot - rolled coils for different contracts, as well as the cash profits of various steel products and the cost of electric - arc furnaces. [17][19][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On January 29, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon iron (SF) main contract closed at 5736, up 1.85% with a decrease of 33,983 in positions; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5926, up 1.61% with a decrease of 12,587 in positions. The previous recommended long positions can be held. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, and for options, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The SF main contract closed at 5736, with a daily change of 104 and a weekly change of 126. The trading volume was 228,839, with a daily change of 106,016, and the open interest was 172,651, with a daily change of - 33,983. The SM main contract closed at 5926, with a daily change of 94 and a weekly change of 112. The trading volume was 256,191, with a daily change of 116,337, and the open interest was 362,400, with a daily change of - 12,587 [3] - **Spot Market**: Silicon iron spot prices were stable to strong, with prices in various regions rising by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. Manganese silicon spot prices were also stable to strong, with some regions rising by 50 - 60 yuan/ton [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis and spread of silicon iron and manganese silicon showed different changes. For example, the SF - SM spread was - 190, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of 14 [3] - **Raw Materials**: Manganese ore prices in Tianjin were stable, with slight weekly decreases. Lanthanum charcoal small materials prices in some regions decreased [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Due to the good overall sentiment in the commodity market, ferroalloys followed the upward trend, and the previously recommended long positions could be held [5][6] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [6] - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] - **Important Information** - On January 29, the prices of manganese ore in Tianjin were reported. For example, the price of Australian lump ore (Mn42.2%Fe3.6%) was 41.5 yuan/ton - degree [7] - Hebei Iron and Steel Group launched the February silicon iron tender. The tender quantity of FeSi75 - B silicon iron was 2,150 tons, a decrease of 1,163 tons compared with 3,313 tons in January [7] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM, the monthly spread of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon iron and manganese silicon, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [8][11][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unaddressed risk of escalating geopolitical situation and the US considering a maritime blockade on Iran, the far - month contracts are oscillating strongly. The spot settlement is slightly below market expectations. The demand for shipping is reaching its peak and then declining, and the supply shows a slight decrease in January's shipping capacity. The traditional off - season for shipping rates is approaching, and the expected rush of shipments is less than anticipated. Geopolitical issues and weather conditions may affect shipping schedules [6][7] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading of the 04 contract, and partially take profits and hold the 6 - 10 calendar spread [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - Different futures contracts have different closing prices, price changes, and volume and position changes. For example, EC2602 closed at 1,717.5, down 1.5 points or 0.09%, with a trading volume of 432.0 hands (up 16.76%) and an open interest of 2,812.0 hands (down 11.74%) [4] - The month - spread structure shows various price differences and their changes. For instance, the EC02 - EC04 spread is 468, down 22.2 [4] 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - Various container freight rates show different degrees of decline. For example, the SCFIS European Line index is 1859.31 points, down 4.86% week - on - week and 24.61% year - on - year. The SCFI comprehensive index is 1457.86, down 7.39% week - on - week and 36.36% year - on - year [4] 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month contract is priced at $63.17 per barrel, up 1.49% week - on - week and down 10.85% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month contract is priced at $67.69 per barrel, up 1.39% week - on - week and down 8.7% year - on - year [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - Geopolitical risks have not been resolved, and the far - month contracts are oscillating strongly. The spot settlement of the European Line is slightly below expectations. The demand for shipping is peaking and then declining, and the supply of shipping capacity in January has decreased slightly. The traditional off - season for shipping rates is approaching, and the rush of shipments is less than expected. Geopolitical and weather factors may affect shipping schedules [6][7] 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: It is recommended to wait and see for the 04 contract due to many short - term disturbances, differences in the rush of shipments, and unresolved Iranian situation risks [8] - Arbitrage: Partially take profits and hold the 6 - 10 calendar spread [9] 3.3 Industry News - Trump warned that the next attack on Iran would be more severe, and Iran is willing to dialogue with the US on the basis of mutual respect [10][11] - Israel is preparing for possible retaliation from Iran due to a potential US attack. The US is considering a maritime blockade on Iran [11] - Maersk reported that weather has affected freight traffic to and from Northern Europe, and the docks in the western Mediterranean have stopped operating [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing various shipping - related indices and container freight rates over different time periods, including the SCFIS European Line index, SCFIS US West Line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes [13][18][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of global corn has weakened, and US corn is still oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the domestic corn spot is relatively stable in the short - term. The 03 corn still has room to fall, while the 07 and 05 corn can consider building long positions on dips. [4][6][8][9] - The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. Due to the end of pre - holiday stocking, the starch spot is weak, and the enterprise is still in a loss. It is expected that the short - term 03 starch futures will oscillate weakly. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Futures Disk**: For corn futures (C2601, C2605, C2509), the closing prices are 2263, 2286, and 2305 respectively, with increases of 0.35%, 0.31%, and 0.35%. For corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices are 2592, 2607, and 2620 respectively, with changes of 0.15%, - 0.12%, and - 0.11%. [2] - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions (such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji) are stable. The basis of corn and starch in different regions is provided. For example, the basis of corn in Qinggang is - 145, and the basis of starch in Longfeng is 123. [2] - **Spreads**: Corn inter - period spreads (C01 - C05, C05 - C09, C09 - C01), starch inter - period spreads (CS01 - CS05, CS05 - CS09, CS09 - CS01), and cross - variety spreads (CS09 - C09, CS01 - C01, CS05 - C05) are presented, along with their price changes. [2] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: Affected by the drought in Argentina, the supply pressure of US corn has weakened, but it is still oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. Domestic corn spot is relatively stable in the short - term. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast China's corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory building situation. [4][6] - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot in Shandong is stable. The corn starch inventory has decreased this week. The starch spot is weak due to the end of pre - holiday stocking, and the enterprise is still in a loss. It is expected that the short - term 03 starch futures will oscillate weakly. [7] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: The 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Consider building long positions on dips for the 07 and 05 corn. [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. [10] 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operations. [11] 3.5 Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the North Port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread, to show the price trends over time. [14][15][16][17][19][20]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Galaxy Futures' Daily Report on Oils and Fats [1] - Report Date: January 29, 2026 [1] Group 2: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil on the 2605 contract was 8382 yuan, up 56 yuan; palm oil was 9362 yuan, up 92 yuan; and rapeseed oil was 9446 yuan, up 116 yuan. The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes in different regions [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil was 88 yuan, up 2 yuan; palm oil was 68 yuan, up 8 yuan; and rapeseed oil was 69 yuan, up 10 yuan [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 05 - contract Y - P spread was (980) yuan, down 36 yuan; OI - Y was 1064 yuan, up 60 yuan; OI - P was 84 yuan, up 24 yuan; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.99, down 0.001 [2]. - **Import Profit**: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was 1130 US dollars, and the FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was 1046 US dollars, with a negative import profit [2]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 4th week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 95.6 million tons, down 0.73 million tons from last week; palm oil was 74.2 million tons, down 0.38 million tons; and rapeseed oil was 25.2 million tons, down 2.3 million tons [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Anec data showed that Brazil exported 267,642 tons of soybeans from January 18 - 24 [4]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures price fluctuated slightly higher, up nearly 1%. As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory was 74.23 million tons, down 0.51% from last week. The basis was stable to weak, and the import profit was inverted. It was expected to maintain a high - inventory state with limited upside space [4]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures price fluctuated slightly higher. The actual soybean crushing volume last week was 2.1021 million tons, and the inventory was 95.6 million tons, down 0.76% from last week. The basis was stable. It was expected to have limited upside space [4][6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated higher, up over 1%. The coastal rapeseed crushing volume last week was 0 tons, and the inventory was 25.2 million tons, down 2.3 million tons. The import profit was inverted. It was expected to continue de - stocking, and the near - month contract had limited downside space [6]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Short - term oils and fats are expected to fluctuate higher, but due to many uncertainties and no prominent contradictions, those without positions are advised to wait and not chase the high or rush to short [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt the strategy of buying the March contract and selling the May contract of rapeseed oil at low prices [8]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing the basis of different oils and fats and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different contracts from 2017 - 2026 [11][12][15][19]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 1 月 29 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/1/29 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 成交量 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 15,751 | 7978 | -6 | -0.08% | | 2.42% | 43,950 | 5.78% | | PK610 132 | 8246 | 0 | 0.00% | | 94.12% | 2,765 | 0.91% | | PK601 18 | 8244 | 8 | 0.10% | | 157.14% | 30 | 76.47% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 3250 | 7400 | 8000 | 8000 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of meal products continues to be strong due to increasing disturbing factors. The overall supply of the international soybean market is relatively loose, and there is still pressure on prices. The domestic spot supply is tightened, and the market demand remains good. The meal product market is affected by multiple factors, and the upward space is expected to be limited [1][3][4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Basis**: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts showed varying degrees of increase. The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed, with the 15 - spread of soybean meal decreasing by 8, and the 15 - spread of rapeseed meal decreasing by 12 [3] - **Cross - variety Futures Spreads and Spot Spreads**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal increased. The oil - meal ratio of the 01 contract remained unchanged [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The soybean carry - over inventory in the United States increased, and the overall supply and demand were relatively loose. The growth of new Brazilian soybeans was good, and the export volume was expected to increase. The old Brazilian soybeans had good export and crushing performance. The old Argentine soybeans had an increase in crushing and export, but the incremental space for export might be limited [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot supply was tightened, the oil mill operating rate increased but the quantity decreased, the提货 volume decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The market transaction increased significantly. The demand for rapeseed meal weakened, the oil mill operation basically stopped, the rapeseed supply was low, and the particle rapeseed meal inventory was still high [6] 3.3 Logic Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The continuous rise of the US soybean market was mainly affected by the macro - environment. The supply pressure was expected to be postponed. The domestic soybean arrival volume would gradually decrease, and the upward space was limited. The near - month spread of soybean meal decreased, and it was difficult to rise further [7] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market was strong, mainly affected by the uncertainty of imports. After the supply of Canadian rapeseed increased, the pressure might gradually appear. The near - month spread of rapeseed meal was strong [7] 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: It is expected that the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see appropriately and gradually short in the future [8] - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM spread [8] - **Options**: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [8] 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profits of Brazilian soybeans from March to July showed different degrees of change. The pressing profit of the 3 - month contract decreased by 0.58, and the 4 - month contract decreased by 24.57 [9]