大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 瓦楞纸日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日 第二部分 行情研判 瓦楞及箱板纸市场主流持稳，部分上调。中国 AA 级 120g 瓦楞纸市场日均价为 2540 元/ 吨，环比上一工作日上涨 0.22%；中国箱板纸市场均价 3524.4 元/吨，环比上涨 0.15%。 市场情绪：市场多数持稳，个别上行。规模纸厂报价上行，带动局部地区价格上调，目 前下游订单暂时未见明显改善，部分下游拿货节奏有所放缓，纸厂库存压力较前期有所减轻， 开工多是正常。 山东市场：废黄板纸市场价格上涨。全国均价为 1452 元/吨，上涨 7 元/吨。打包站回 收量一般，出货意向稳定，局部废黄板纸供应偏少。纸厂采购意向偏强，龙头纸企采购价格 有所上涨，部分纸厂跟涨，整体呈现南涨北稳趋势。（卓创） $$\mathbf{1}\;\;/\;\;\mathbf{4}$$ 研究员：朱四祥 F03127108 投资咨询证号： Z0020124 联系方式： : zhusixiang_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业证号： 瓦楞纸日报 第一部分 数据分析 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 【逻辑分析】 近期纸企集 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an apple daily report from the Commodity Research Institute, dated May 21, 2024 [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - The Fuji apple price index is 108.50, up 0.24 from the previous trading day. The average wholesale price of 6 fruits is 7.70, down 0.13 [3] - Prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70, Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80, etc., remained stable compared to the previous trading day [3] Futures Prices - AP01 closed at 7619, down 104 from the previous close; AP05 closed at 7766, down 83; AP10 closed at 0, down 7784 [3] - The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 was - 147, down 21 [3] Basis - The basis of Qixia first and second - grade 80 against AP01 is 581, up 104; against AP05 is 434, up 83; against AP10 is 8200, up 7784 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of May 16, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 2.2886 million tons, a decrease of 379,100 tons from the previous week, and the current cold - storage inventory is at a five - year low [4] - Yesterday, the mainstream price of apples in the producing areas remained stable. The supply of slice - red apples was tight with good demand, and the mainstream transaction price showed a firming trend. Other specifications' prices remained stable. Cold - storage trading volume was average, and most merchants had completed their Dragon Boat Festival stocking [7] - The profit of Qixia 80 first and second - grade apple storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 production season is 0.9 yuan per catty, up 0.2 yuan per catty from last week [7] - In Shandong Yantai Qixia, the demand for slice - red apples is good. The price ranges for different types of apples are provided, and the overall transaction is stable. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the cold - storage apple price is stable, with less remaining inventory in the warehouse and merchants reluctant to sell [8] Trading Logic - This year's apple cold - storage inventory is at the lowest level since 2019. Before the new apples are on the market, the market supply is likely to be tight. The current market sales are okay, and the spot price is strong, which supports the apple price. In addition, the windy and hot - dry weather in the western producing areas in April affected apple fruit - setting in some areas. It is expected that the apple price will continue to fluctuate slightly upwards [9] Trading Strategies - For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to build long positions in AP10 at low prices in the short term [10] - For the arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 related charts, such as the price chart of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price chart of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70 apples, and the chart of AP contract main basis [16][18][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. After the egg price has dropped to the current level, it shows signs of stabilization recently. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions and wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Fundamental Information - **Price and Market Conditions**: The average price in the main producing areas today is 3.01 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. The average price in the main selling areas is 3.2 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. Most of the mainstream egg prices across the country remained stable today [6]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In April, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens from May to August 2025 is approximately 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick Hatch and Culling**: In April, the monthly chick hatch volume of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 46.985 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From May 16th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas was 18.56 million, an increase of 7.5% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in the week of May 15th was 534 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales and Inventory**: As of the week of May 15th, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 8716 tons, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.27 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1 day, a decrease of 0.33 days from the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of May 16th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.12 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. On May 9th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 20.15 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.8 yuan/jin from the previous week. Today, the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 5.03 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [8][9]. II. Trading Logic The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. After the egg price has dropped to the current level, it shows signs of stabilization recently. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions and wait and see [10]. III. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Wait and see [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract [12]. - **Options**: Wait and see [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the meal market showed a rebound today. After the rapid increase in the spot market trading volume of soybean meal yesterday, the short - position reduction on the futures market was significant, and the price has stabilized to some extent. However, the supply - side pressure still exists, and it is expected that the unilateral upward trend will face difficulties. Rapeseed meal also lacks obvious positive drivers, and its price difference is expected to fluctuate. [4][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Today, the US soybean futures rebounded with no obvious market drivers. The soybean meal futures strengthened, with significant short - position reduction after good spot trading yesterday. Rapeseed meal also strengthened following soybean meal, with limited changes in its fundamentals. [4] - The monthly price differences of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a phased rebound. The soybean meal's monthly price difference stabilized, while the rapeseed meal's was mainly affected by the unilateral price increase and showed wide - range fluctuations. [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **US Market**: The near - end support of the US soybean market is obvious. The old - crop exports decreased recently, but the April soybean crushing volume had a significant year - on - year increase. The new - crop sowing progress is fast, and last week's exports increased. [5] - **Brazilian Market**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, and the recent crushing volume has decreased. Due to large Chinese purchases, the domestic crushing profit has weakened, and exports are expected to increase. [5] - **Argentine Market**: The domestic crushing growth may slow down due to oil - mill shutdowns, but soybean exports may increase. [5] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, with increasing oil - mill operating rates, rising inventories, and low spot trading. The rapeseed meal demand is weakening, and the supply pressure still exists. [6] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis The reduction of tariffs between China and the US has led to a slight market recovery, but the meal market's reaction is average. The impact of tariff adjustments on soybean imports is limited, and there are many uncertainties. The domestic soybean supply is less affected by policies due to the increase of new supply sources, but the long - term soybean meal is still supported by policies. [7] 3.4 Logic Analysis The meal futures rebounded today. After the significant increase in soybean meal spot trading yesterday, the futures market reduced positions significantly, indicating that the current price reflects the market's judgment to some extent. However, the supply - side pressure remains, and it is difficult for the price to rise unilaterally. Rapeseed meal also lacks positive drivers, and its price difference will likely fluctuate. [8] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Hold long positions. [9] - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the M11 - 1 spread and expect the MRM09 spread to widen. [9] - **Options**: Adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles. [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall domestic coal supply remains abundant, with stable production in major coal - producing areas. The coal开工率 in Ordos and Yulin regions is high, with a daily output of about 4 million tons. [3] - Power plant inventories are high and the destocking process is slow. Due to the impact of imported coal, power plants only make necessary purchases. The decline in port out - shipments leads to passive inventory accumulation at ports, and the available resources for sale are abundant. [3] - As the temperature rises nationwide, the daily coal consumption of power plants will increase seasonally, but the number of available inventory days is high, and the port FOB price continues to decline. [3] - In the pithead area, the operating rate of coal - chemical products is high, and the demand for chemical coal is fair. However, the long - term agreement coal of power plants overflows, weakening the support for pithead prices. It is expected that coal prices will continue to decline. [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price and Spread - Pithead prices are continuously falling. As of May 20, the 5500K pithead price in Datong was 455 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week; in Ordos, it was 425 yuan/ton, also down 30 yuan/ton; and the 5800K pithead price in Yulin was 469 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from last week. [8] - Port FOB prices continue to decline. [11] 3.2 Supply and Demand - **Production**: The production of major coal - producing area mines is stable. The coal开工率 in Ordos and Yulin regions is high, with a daily output of about 4 million tons. [3] - **Inventory**: Port inventories are high but have decreased. As of May 20, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was about 29.73 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons from the high level. Coastal power plant inventories are slowly destocking, and inland power plant inventories remain high. The total inventory of national power plants is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, and the destocking speed is slow. [3] - **Consumption**: The daily consumption of coastal power plants is hovering at a low level, and the destocking is slow. The daily consumption of inland power plants is slowly increasing, and the inventory is continuously destocking. The total daily consumption of national power plants is slowly increasing, but the inventory is accumulating. The daily consumption of key national power plants is declining, and the inventory is continuously destocking. [3][65][70] - **Coal - chemical industry**: The operating rate of coal - chemical products such as methanol and urea is high, and the weekly chemical coal consumption is also at a certain level. The profit of coal - chemical products is also a factor affecting coal demand. [82][85][87] - **Power generation**: The total power generation has declined. The monthly thermal power generation has decreased by 6% year - on - year, and the proportion of thermal power generation has also changed. The power generation of hydropower, new energy, etc. also shows different trends. [96][100][102] - **Freight**: Domestic coastal freight rates have stabilized at the bottom, and international sea freight rates are also an influencing factor. [103][105] 3.3 Meso - level Data - From January to April, China imported 152.67 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. [107] - From January to April, the cumulative coal production was 1.58473 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. [111]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 5 月 21 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/5/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK504 | 8210 | 4 | 0.05% | 22 | 144.44% | 55 | 14.58% | | PK510 | 8352 | -16 | -0.19% | 56,868 | -20.24% | 122,395 | 4.58% | | PK601 | 8240 | -10 | -0.12% | 338 | -38.32% | 2,659 | 0.61% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 5 月 21 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | | | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7814 | (6) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | | | 8154 | | | | 8164 | 8044 | 350 | | 0 | 340 | 0 | 230 | -30 | | 棕榈油 | 8104 | (2) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | | | 8624 | | | | 8604 | 8754 | 520 | | -10 | 500 | -20 | 65 ...

Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating was provided in the content [1][21][35] Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and provides trading strategies based on market data, industry news, and logical analysis [4][23][37] Section Summaries Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 78,100 yuan with a 0.31% increase, and the Shanghai Copper index increased its position by 3,097 lots to 531,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: Ivanhoe Mining suspended the operation of its Kakula underground mine due to earthquake activity [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The mid - year negotiation between Antofagasta and smelters is approaching, and the copper concentrate processing fee is under pressure. The import of recycled copper may increase, but the long - term supply is still tight. The market may show a back structure in the medium term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to temporarily observe for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options [5][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose by 98 yuan/ton to 3,246 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.11%. Spot prices in various regions also increased [9] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Axis mining area had its mining license revoked, and the transition authorities designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas [10][11] - **Logic Analysis**: The Guinea event may reduce the annual surplus of bauxite supply and support the bauxite price. Short - term attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the alumina price will be strongly volatile in the short term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 20,125 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions also changed [18] - **Related Information**: There were news about Sino - US trade, real - estate data, bank interest rates, and Fed officials' statements. Aluminum inventory decreased [19][20] - **Trading Logic**: Fed officials hinted at no interest rate cut before September, and domestic banks lowered deposit rates. Aluminum consumption maintained an upward trend, and low inventory supported the price difference [23] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate. Consider the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 06 - 09 contract and temporarily observe for options [24] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 rose by 0.83% to 22,410 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly among traders, and the spot premium declined slightly [26] - **Related Information**: The Hong Kong Exchange plans to add three storage facilities in Hong Kong, and the zinc ore tender price in North China increased [27] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters resumed production, downstream orders did not improve, and short - term zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [28] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, short positions can be lightly tested at high prices. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [29] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2506 rose by 0.45% to 16,900 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand, and regional trading was acceptable [30] - **Related Information**: Some recycled lead smelters reduced the purchase price of waste batteries and planned to stop production [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Recycled lead smelters are in a loss state, and the short - term resumption of production willingness is not strong. The demand off - season restricts the upward space of lead prices [32] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 60 to 123,280 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [34] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, nickel ore imports increased seasonally, and the export of ternary precursors decreased [36] - **Logic Analysis**: LME nickel inventory increased, nickel ore prices supported the nickel price, but the supply surplus is expected to expand after May [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to weaken. Consider the double - selling strategy for options and temporarily observe for arbitrage [38] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose by 30 to 12,870 yuan/ton. Spot prices were given [39] - **Important Information**: The European stainless steel market is facing challenges, and prices are falling [40] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, steel mills' production decreased, demand was mainly for rigid demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage [43][44] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 267,730 yuan/ton, with a 1.11% increase. Spot trading was limited [46] - **Related Information**: There was news about the US missile defense system, but it had little impact on the tin market [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices are in a high - level shock. African tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand situation is expected to ease [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to adjust in the short term. Temporarily observe for options [49][50] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures weakened, and spot prices were generally lowered [52] - **Related Information**: The US launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported industrial silicon from multiple countries [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weak, supply will increase, and high inventory suppresses prices [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [54] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures strengthened, and spot prices were given [55] - **Related Information**: The US electricity consumption is expected to reach a record high, and solar power installation capacity is expected to remain stable [56] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, production decreased, inventory decreased, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [57][58] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [59] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and spot prices decreased [60] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, lithium carbonate imports increased significantly [61] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters and mines are reducing production, but demand is not optimistic, and inventory is high [62] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [63][65][66] Second Part: Non - ferrous Industry Price and Related Data - The report provides daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals, including price, spread, inventory, and profit data, as well as multiple charts showing the historical trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [68][79][184]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Report Date: May 21, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13490 with a gain of 30, trading volume of 25,867 (up 12918), and open interest of 113,404 (up 3936) [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13495 with a gain of 15, trading volume of 441 (up 357), and open interest of 407 (up 331) [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13440 with a gain of 45, trading volume of 248,577 (up 134197), and open interest of 574,399 (down 1339) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19685 with no change, trading volume of 12, and open interest of 19 [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18550 with no change, trading volume of 0, and open interest of 0 [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19710 with a gain of 55, trading volume of 220 (down 3), and open interest of 1203 (down 8) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14550 yuan/ton, down 16 [3] - CY IndexC32S was 20520 yuan/ton, down 550 [3] - Cot A was 77.60 cents/pound, up 0.85 [3] - FCY IndexC33S was 21787 yuan/ton, down 113 [3] - (FC Index):M: to - port price was 75.34 cents/pound, up 0.70 [3] - Indian S - 6 was 54200 rupees/candy, down 100 [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton, up 70 [3] - Pure polyester yarn T32S was 11200 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose yarn R30S was 17250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 5 (up 15), 5 - 9 spread was 55 (down 30), 9 - 1 spread was - 50 (up 15) [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 1135 (unchanged), 5 - 9 spread was - 1160 (down 55), 9 - 1 spread was 25 (up 55) [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6195 (down 30), CY05 - CF05 was 5055 (down 15), CY09 - CF09 was 6270 (up 10) [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 764 (down 165), sliding - scale duty domestic - foreign cotton spread was 78 (down 106), domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1267 (down 437) [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the week ending May 17, 2025, the average temperature in US cotton - growing areas (92.9% of production) was 75.66°F, 2.64°F higher than the same period last year; average rainfall was 0.71 inches, 0.56 inches lower. In Texas, the average temperature was 78.44°F, 3.06°F higher, and average rainfall was 0.01 inches, 1.24 inches lower [6] - As of the week ending May 18, 2025, India's weekly cotton arrivals were 2.9 million tons, a 26% year - on - year decline. The cumulative arrivals in the 2024/25 season were 456.1 million tons, a 7% year - on - year decline. The CAI's cumulative arrivals reached 92% of the 24/25 season's predicted production, 3% faster than the same period last year [6] - As of the week ending May 18, 2025, in Texas cotton - growing areas (78.1% of area), the weighted average of above - ground soil moisture (very short + short) was 54%, 17 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the weighted average of underground soil moisture (very short + short) was 59%, 10 percentage points higher. The cotton planting progress was 35%, 1 percentage point higher than last year and 5 percentage points higher than the normal level [6] Trading Logic - The market fundamentals have not changed much, but the macro - level is relatively optimistic. Affected by this, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly upward - trending, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be upward - trending under macro - influence [8] - Arbitrage: Hold off [9] - Options: Hold off [10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The atmosphere in the cotton grey fabric market has been weakening. Although previous orders are still in production, new orders are insufficient. The loom factory's operating rate is stable at 5 - 60%. Recent shipments are average, and inventory has decreased slightly, with the current inventory hovering around 32 days. Pay attention to price fluctuations in the grey fabric market after the overnight rise in Zhengzhou cotton [10] - Zhengzhou cotton has been slightly upward - trending this week. The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market has been acceptable, but prices have remained stable. Downstream demand is weakening, and confidence is insufficient. Spinning mills' inventories are low, and cash flow is okay, so the short - term willingness to limit production is low. The operating rate is expected to remain stable. If cotton prices do not change much, it is difficult for yarn prices to break through upward [10] Group 4: Options - On May 21, 2025, for the CF509C13400.CZC option, the underlying contract price was 13440, the closing price was 294, up 8.5%, IV was 10.4%, Delta was 0.5318, Gamma was 0.0006, Vega was 26.2513, Theta was - 2.3093, theoretical leverage was 45.7143, and actual leverage was 24.3109 [12] - For the CF509P12600.CZC option, the underlying contract price was 13440, the closing price was 60, up 3.4%, IV was 12.5%, Delta was - 0.1381, Gamma was 0.0003, Vega was 14.6065, Theta was - 1.5477, theoretical leverage was 224.0000, and actual leverage was 30.9344 [12] - For the CF509P12200.CZC option, the underlying contract price was 13440, the closing price was 37, down 31.5%, IV was 14.6%, Delta was - 0.0818, Gamma was 0.0002, Vega was 10.0139, Theta was - 1.2280, theoretical leverage was 363.2432, and actual leverage was 29.7133 [12] - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.6122, with volatility slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13400 was 10.4%, CF509 - P - 12600 was 12.5%, and CF509 - P - 12200 was 14.6% [12][13] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8761, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6430. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased, indicating a significant bearish sentiment in the market [13] - Options strategy: Hold off [14] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes charts of 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spreads, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05, CY01 - CF01 spreads, CF9 - 1 spreads, and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][21][23][25]

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 煤炭日报 2025 年 5 月 21 日 煤炭日报 【市场回顾】 现货市场：5 月 21 日，港口市场观望为主，贸易商报价弱稳运行，现 5500 大卡市 场报价 615-620 元/吨，5000 大卡市场报价 530-535 元/吨，4500 大卡市场报价 470 元/吨； 内蒙地区非电企业用煤 5500 大卡煤种价格区间为 390 - 430 元/吨，5000 大卡煤种价格区 间为 330 - 370 元/吨，4500 大卡煤种价格则在 250 - 290 元/吨；榆林地区非电企业用煤 6000 大卡煤的价格区间为 480-510 元/吨，5800 大卡煤的价格区间为 460-490 元/吨；山 西非电企业用煤 5500 大卡煤种价格区间为 430 - 480 元/吨，5000 大卡煤种价格区间为 370 - 420 元/吨，4500 大卡煤种价格区间为 320 - 370 元/吨。江内港口 5500 大卡动力煤 的报价为 670 - 680 元/吨，5000 大卡动力煤的报价区间为 575 - 580 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 4 月份，全社会用电量 7721 亿千瓦时，同比 ...