橡胶板块2025年12月第3周报 潘盛杰 研究所 化工研究团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 橡胶：泰国越南天气正常，下游轮胎需求平稳 ◼【综合分析】 现货价格：本周天然橡胶和顺丁橡胶市场均呈现价格上涨趋势。天然橡胶方面，上海全乳胶均价上涨至14975元/吨，涨幅1.53%；山东市场 STR20#混合胶均价上涨至14479元/吨，涨幅0.78%。顺丁橡胶方面，华北地区BR9000市场价格上涨至10500元/吨，涨幅3.4%；华北地区 BR9000均价上涨至10390元/吨，同比去年同期跌22.64%。 供应方面：天然橡胶因云南产区全面停割，导致国内供应减少，而海外供应则呈现增长趋势。具体来看，云南11月底停割、海南产区逐步减 产；海外方面，泰国、越南天气正常，新胶呈现季节性增量。顺丁橡胶市场供应相对稳定，但受到茂名石化检修影响，供应略有减少，周内 振华新材料装置正常生产，茂名石化延续停车；山东裕龙石化恢复正常生产，其他装置维持正常生产为主。 需求方面：本周天然橡胶和顺丁橡胶下游需求表现比较平稳，主要下游轮胎企业开工小幅调整。下游采购方面，下游逢低刚需补货，采买情 绪一般。 库存方面：天然橡胶青岛地 ...

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Weak Supply and Demand, Lead Price in Range-bound Fluctuation [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic lead market shows weak supply and demand. The low inventory and reduced production of recycled lead support the Shanghai lead price, while the weakening consumption restricts the upward space of the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will maintain range-bound fluctuations [4]. - Trading strategies suggest a range-bound approach for single-sided trading, and temporary observation for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply Side**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee this week reached 300 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM weekly processing fee for imported lead concentrate reached -135 US dollars/dry ton. Near the end of the year, the lead concentrate market remained inactive. For imported ores, some bids were as low as -200 US dollars/dry ton, with only a small amount of rigid-demand transactions. The processing fees for domestic ores were mostly for pre-sales in 2026, and remained stable in December [4]. - **Smelting Side**: The weekly operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters was 67.35%, a 1.82% increase from last week. The operating rates in Henan and Hunan remained stable. Although some smelters in Hunan were affected by environmental inspections, the electrolytic lead production remained stable this week, and is expected to decline slightly next week. A medium - large - scale smelter in Yunnan increased production after maintenance, and a small - scale smelter also slightly increased production. The SMM weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 41.61%, a 3.75% decrease from last week. Due to air pollution control in East and North China, smelting enterprises in Anhui significantly reduced production. If the control is lifted this weekend, normal production will resume [4]. - **Consumption Side**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises was 74.23%, a 0.41% decrease from last week. Since December, the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has not significantly improved actual consumption. Instead, due to consumers being in the adaptation period, the decline in vehicle sales has dragged down battery consumption, leading some enterprises to reduce or plan to reduce production. The automotive battery market has entered the traditional consumption peak season, and the operating rates of most medium - and large - scale enterprises are relatively stable [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of December 18, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 20,500 tons, basically unchanged from December 11 and a decrease of 1,400 tons from December 15 [4]. 1.2 - 1.5 - These sections cover information on futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the text [5][8][11][15] Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.3 - These sections involve raw material supply, including global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, imports of silver concentrates, and the supply of recycled lead raw materials such as lead - containing waste and waste batteries. However, specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the text [20][24][32] Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 - 3.7 - These sections cover aspects such as the global refined lead balance, domestic refined lead imports and exports, primary lead smelting enterprise profits, primary and recycled lead supply, and domestic lead ingot supply. However, specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the text [39][46][47] Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 - 4.4 - These sections analyze the demand for lead, including lead - acid batteries, lead alloys and their plates, the automotive industry, and industries such as motorcycles, electricity, and communication. However, specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the text [71][74][79][82]

油脂周报：油脂呈现震荡偏弱，整体仍缺乏驱动 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号：F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. Gapki数据显示印棕10月产量增至476万吨，10月出口有所增加，但仍处偏低水平，库存有所去库至233万 吨，继续处于历史同期偏低水平。 2. SEA数据显示11月印度食用油进口115万吨，环比减少13%，处于历史同期较为偏低水平，其中棕榈油小增 至63万吨，豆葵油降至37、14万吨，但豆油进口仍偏高。 3.本周油脂整体呈现震荡回落。国内豆油库存拐点已至，目前持续小幅去库，但库存整体不缺，豆油价格更多 跟随油脂整体走势波动。在菜油供应充足的情况下，菜油预计价格上方承压。近期油脂缺乏利多驱动，情绪偏 弱，美国生柴最终方案或推迟至明年、马棕库存持续高企去库缓慢等均不利于油脂的上涨。不过油脂经历了大 幅下跌，预计下方空间将较为有限，建议谨慎追空。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国际市场—印棕10月去库较多，CPO现货价稳中有降 50 100 1 ...

Report Title - Weekly Report on Stock Index Futures: Stock Indexes Expected to Rise Again [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market first declined and then rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing the 3900-point mark. The performance of technology stocks was poor, while traditional industries such as retail strengthened. It is necessary to closely observe whether there will be a style switch, which will have a significant impact on stock indexes [5]. - At the beginning of this week, the market is expected to strengthen under the combined effect of the upward inertia of A-shares and the rebound of U.S. stocks. Each index is facing pressure at the integer mark. If there is a style switch, the stock index is still expected to reach a new level [5]. - The delivery of the 2512 contract of stock index futures was completed smoothly. After the contract change, the discount of each contract may widen. Recently, the short - side main force has significantly increased positions, possibly due to increased hedging needs [5]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Weekly News Summary** - In November in China, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 4.8%, lower than the expected 5%. From January to November, the year - on - year growth rate was 6.0%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in November was 5.1%, the same as the previous month [4]. - From January to November in China, the year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.6%, greater than the expected 2.2%. Real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 15.9%, among which residential investment was 6.0432 trillion yuan, a decline of 15.0% [4]. - In November in China, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.3898 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods was 3.9444 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5% [4]. - In November in the U.S., the year - on - year increase of CPI was 2.7%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. The year - on - year increase of core CPI was 2.6%, also lower than the market expectation of 3% [4]. - In November in the U.S., the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000. The unemployment rate was 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, higher than the expected 4.4% [4]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The market last week first declined and then rebounded. The performance of technology stocks was poor, while traditional industries strengthened. It is necessary to observe whether there will be a style switch [5]. - At the beginning of this week, the market is expected to strengthen. Each index is facing pressure at the integer mark. If there is a style switch, the stock index is still expected to rise [5]. - The delivery of the 2512 contract of stock index futures was completed smoothly. After the contract change, the discount may widen. Recently, the short - side main force has increased positions [5]. - **Strategy Recommendations** - Unilateral: The market shows a volatile trend. Adopt the strategy of selling high and buying low [6]. - Arbitrage: Implement the spot - futures arbitrage strategy of going long on the 2603 contracts of IM and IC and shorting ETFs [6]. - Options: Adopt the double - buying strategy [6] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **A - share Index Performance** - Last week, the market showed a volatile trend. The CSI 300 declined by 0.28%, the SSE 50 rose by 0.32%, the CSI 500 declined by 0.003%, and the CSI 1000 declined by 0.56% [17]. - **A - share Trading Volume** - Last week, the trading volume in the A - share market shrank to 8.7 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 10.1% compared with the previous week. The trading volume proportion of major indexes was stable, with the trading volume proportion of the CSI 300 slightly decreasing [22]. - **A - share Stock Price Changes** - Last week, stocks gradually showed a general upward trend, with the proportion of rising stocks on Friday reaching 82%, a recent high. The proportion of limit - down stocks significantly decreased, and the proportion of limit - up stocks exceeded 1% continuously from Wednesday. The proportion of limit - down stocks on Thursday and Friday was only 0.1% [23]. - **A - share Margin Trading** - Last week, the margin balance in the A - share market slightly declined, remaining at the level of 2.48 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.6% of the A - share floating market value. Since December 16, there has been continuous net margin repayment, but the amount is small. The proportion of margin trading in the A - share trading volume remains above 10% [33]. - **A - share Industry Performance** - Different industries showed different performance in terms of weekly gains and losses, with the highest weekly increase reaching 6.7% and the lowest reaching - 4.0% [36]. - **A - share Industry Capital Flow** - The net weekly capital inflow and net weekly margin trading inflow of different industries varied [40]. - **Stock Index Futures Basis Changes** - The basis of different stock index futures contracts showed different trends [46]. - **Stock Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes** - The trading volume and open interest of different stock index futures contracts changed over time [49]. - **Comparison of Stock Index Futures and Spot Trading Volume** - The trading volume of different stock index futures contracts and their corresponding spot indexes showed different relationships [52]. - **Stock Index Futures Main Open Interest** - The net short - position ratios of the top five and top ten holders of different stock index futures contracts were different [54]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily urea report dated December 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - Urea futures oscillated and declined, closing at 1697 (-7/-0.41%) [3] - Urea spot market saw factory prices continue to rise, but trading volume weakened. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1620 - 1650 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1590 - 1610 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1650 - 1660 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1540 - 1590 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On December 19, the daily urea production in the industry was 18.73 tons, a decrease of 0.45 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 0.9 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 77.46%, a decrease of 1.43% compared to 78.89% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - In Shandong, the mainstream factory price continued to rise, market sentiment cooled, and new orders were scarce. The industrial compound fertilizer operating rate increased, but raw material and finished - product inventories were high, and orders were few. It is expected that the factory price will remain firm [5] - In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, the factory price followed the decline, and traders stocked up. It is expected that the factory price will remain firm [5] - Around the delivery area, the factory price was firm, the market atmosphere was positive, demand in Northeast China increased, and new orders were smoothly traded. It is expected that the factory price will increase [5] - Domestic gas - based plants started maintenance, and the daily output dropped to around 19.4 tons but remained at a high level. India tendered again for 150 tons in total for the east and west coasts with a shipping date in early February. The impact was limited due to no new quotas in China [5] - The compound fertilizer operating rate in the Central Plains and Northeast regions increased seasonally, but in Henan, it stopped due to environmental protection until the end of the month, and overall demand slowed down. The progress of reserve by storage enterprises reached over 70%, and future procurement intensity will gradually slow down [5] - In the medium - term, affected by environmental protection, the compound fertilizer operating rate in Henan, Hebei, and Anhui decreased significantly, and the urea supply - demand fundamentals remained relatively loose. After the price increase in some regions, downstream acceptance decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of phosphate fertilizer prices on the urea market sentiment [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short 05 [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Wait and see [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "High - price Resistance, Urea Weakly Pulls Back" and is from the Chemical Research Group of Galaxy Futures Research Institute, written by Zhang Mengchao in December 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Last week's view was that the Indian tender stimulated the rebound of the ex - factory price, while this week's view is that downstream resistance to high prices leads to a weak pull - back of urea. The market sentiment has cooled, and the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas are weakly stable with weak transactions. In the short term, urea remains firm, but in the long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals are still relatively loose, and the price increase is expected to slow down. The trading strategy is to go short unilaterally without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3] Group 4: Core Data Changes Supply - In the 50th week of 2025 (20251211 - 1217), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 89.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 52.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.11%. The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 71.71%, a week - on - week decrease of 9.57% [4] Demand - In the 51st week of 2025 (20251212 - 1218), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 39.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 percentage points. The urea demand of Shandong Linyi compound fertilizer sample production enterprises was 1580 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons or 15.96%. The arrival volume of urea in Northeast China was 8.2 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from last week. As of December 17, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.24 days, a decrease of 0.7 days or 10.09% from the previous period [4] Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 tons, a decrease of 5.45 tons or 4.42% from last week. As of December 18, 2025 (the 51st week), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 13.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 tons or 12.20% [4] Valuation - The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was weak, and the decline of Yulin pulverized coal widened. The spot price of urea rebounded, and the production profit of urea expanded. The fixed - bed production broke even, the profit of coal - water slurry production was 100 yuan/ton, and the production profit of entrained - flow bed was 330 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded, the basis was around - 30 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 41 yuan/ton [4] Group 5: Other Data in the Report - The report also includes data tracking on mainstream manufacturers' ex - factory prices, basis, regional spreads, warehouse receipts and spreads, futures spreads between urea and methanol, raw coal prices, production profit, urea/liquid ammonia and synthetic ammonia spreads, urea operating rate, urea production, urea pre - sales, urea inventory, other inventory supply and demand, ratio of urea to other nitrogen fertilizers, compound fertilizer, melamine, urea export, and furniture, etc., but the specific data content is not detailed in the provided text [7][14][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The开工率 of coal mines is stable, with the开工率 in Erdos at 73% and in Yulin at 50% as of December 18. Coal production has recovered, but demand has declined, leading to a continuous drop in pit - mouth prices. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 380 - 460 yuan/ton, and the methanol开工率 is stable at a high level, with a continuous loose domestic supply [4]. - The US dollar price has risen slightly. Most Iranian plants have shut down due to gas restrictions and no tenders have been issued. The开工率 of non - Iranian plants has increased, and the overseas开工率 has slightly increased from a low level. The European and American markets have declined slightly, and the domestic - overseas price difference has narrowed. The Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 590,000 tons in December, and some non - Iranian supplies have been delayed to January. The import forecast for January has been raised to around 1.4 million tons [4]. - The开工率 of MTO plants has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably while others are under - loaded or shut down. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing due to a slight reduction in imported arrivals caused by shipping closures, and the basis is relatively stable. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. - Overall, the international plant开工率 has declined, and the gas restriction in Iran has expanded, with only one plant remaining in operation. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, but the overall trading is light. The US dollar price is stable, and the import parity is stable. The coal price has fallen weakly, and the domestic supply is loose. The inland MTO开工率 is stable, and the inland price is relatively strong recently. Affected by the Fed's interest rate cut in December, the domestic commodities have fluctuated widely, but the impact on methanol futures has weakened. Methanol is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Gradually build long positions for the 05 contract when the price is below 2100. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage. - Over - the - counter: Sell put options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic** - As of December 18, the overall domestic methanol plant开工率 was 77.63%, up 0.99 percentage points from last week and 3.48 percentage points from the same period last year. The开工率 in the northwest region was 89.01%, up 1.48 percentage points from last week and 2.06 percentage points from the same period last year. The average开工率 of non - integrated methanol plants was 70.22%, up 1.35 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International** - In the period from December 6 to December 12, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol production was 914,499 tons, a decrease of 30,956 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 62.69%, a decrease of 2.12% from last week. Some plants in Iran, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, South America and North America had different operating conditions [5]. - **Supply - Import** - From December 11 to December 17, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 344,000 tons [5]. - **Demand - MTO** - As of December 18, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 70.10%, a decrease of 7.44 percentage points from last week. The national olefin plant开工率 was 89.49%, and the weekly average开工率 of the MTO industry decreased [5]. - **Demand - Traditional** - The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 7.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 76.51%. The formaldehyde开工率 was 42.58% [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales** - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 59,700 tons, an increase of 16,900 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 39.49% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises** - The production enterprise inventory was 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 220,400 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.25% [5]. - **Inventory - Ports** - As of December 17, 2025, the total port inventory was 1.2188 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 31,000 tons, while that in South China increased by 15,400 tons [5]. - **Valuation** - In the northwest region, the price of chemical coal has fallen, while the inland methanol auction price has been stable. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 460 yuan/ton, and that in northern Shaanxi is 380 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has been stable [5]. - **Spot Prices** - The price in Taicang is 2140 (+50), and the price in the north line is 1900 (-50) [8]

反内卷预期再度升温，提振市场情绪 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面方面，供应端硅铁、锰硅开工率与产量均双双下降，近期随着产区电价整体上涨，厂家亏损态势加剧，供应端延续下降趋势。 需求方面，钢联数据显示，五大品种钢材产量与表需整体继续下降，生铁产量继续下降，且从高炉检修计划推算，生铁产量下降的 趋势预计将维持到12月底，对原料端需求仍有压力。成本端方面，产区铁合金电价上涨之后近期平稳运行，海外锰矿矿山1月美金 报价整体均小幅上涨。总体来看，基本面呈现供需双降格局，成本端支撑较为明显。 市场 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Double Coking Coal and Coke: Bottom Rebound in the Futures Market, Pay Attention to Changes in Trading Logic" [1] - Researcher: Guo Chao [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to the rising "anti - involution" sentiment in the market, commodities with large previous declines have rebounded, and coking coal has a relatively obvious rebound. Although the auction failure rate of Shanxi coking coal has decreased and some coal types have shown signs of stabilization and rebound, it has not yet formed a general increase, and the downstream procurement intensity still needs to be observed. Considering the winter storage demand of coking and steel enterprises and the possible production reduction and maintenance of some coal mines at the end of the year, the supply - demand situation of coking coal may improve slightly in the later stage. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long with a light position after a pullback. [5] - For coking coal, the decline in domestic prices has narrowed, and some coal mines have seen price increases. However, the overall supply is relatively loose due to high imports of Mongolian coal and insufficient domestic production reduction. It is expected that the procurement enthusiasm will improve next week, and the price is expected to stabilize and rebound slightly in the next 1 - 2 weeks. [7] - For coke, the second - round price cut has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon, with a high probability of a fourth - round cut later. The production of coke has declined, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. The iron - making water production is in a seasonal downward trend, and the decline is expected to slow down. [8] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Pay attention to changes in trading logic. The volatility is still large. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long with a light position after a pullback [5] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5] - **Options**: Wait and see [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Coking Coal Analysis** - **Spot Price**: The auction failure rate of coking coal in the production area has decreased, the decline has slowed down, and some coal mines have seen price increases, but there is no general increase. The Shanxi coal warehouse receipt is 1230 yuan/ton, the Mongolian 5 warehouse receipt is 1115 yuan/ton, and the Australian coal (port spot) warehouse receipt is 1175 yuan/ton. [7] - **Domestic Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has rebounded slightly. It is expected that the coking coal production will decline seasonally in late December, but the reduction in domestic production will be supplemented by imported coal, and the overall supply is relatively loose. [7] - **Imported Mongolian Coal**: The average daily customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port have increased, and the inventory at the port has risen. It is expected that the average daily customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port will remain high in December. [7] - **Demand**: The coke production has declined, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. The downstream steel mills' procurement enthusiasm is average, and attention should be paid to the winter storage and replenishment efforts of steel mills. [7] - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory has increased. The inventory of coal mines has risen, and the inventory at ports and terminals has increased significantly. Some coking and steel enterprises have slightly increased their procurement enthusiasm, but large - scale winter storage has not yet started. [7] - **Coke Analysis** - **Spot Price**: The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and some steel mills have proposed a third - round price cut. It is expected that the third - round price cut will be implemented soon, and there is a high probability of a fourth - round price cut later. [8] - **Supply**: The coke production has declined, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. The downstream steel mills' procurement enthusiasm is average, and the coke enterprises have certain pressure in shipping. [8] - **Demand**: The iron - making water production has continued to decline. It is in a seasonal downward trend, and the decline is expected to slow down in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Attention should be paid to the raw material replenishment actions of steel mills. [8] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory has decreased. The coke enterprises' shipping situation is poor, and the steel mills basically purchase on demand, with no obvious signs of winter storage. [8] - **Profit**: According to Steel Union data, the average national profit per ton of coke is 16 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions. [8] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Coking Coal Production and Inventory** - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 86.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. The average daily production of raw coal is 192.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 tons, and the raw coal inventory is 478.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.5 tons. The average daily production of clean coal is 75.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8 tons, and the clean coal inventory is 272.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.5 tons. [12] - **Imported Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance** - The average daily customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port have increased, and the inventory at the port has risen. [7] - **Iron - Making Water Production** - The average daily iron - making water production of 247 steel mills is 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons. The decline is mainly due to the continuous impact of blast furnace maintenance last week and the production reduction of some steel mills in Hebei due to environmental protection restrictions. [17] - **Price and Basis** - The report provides price trends and basis data for domestic coking coal, imported coking coal, coke, etc., including price indices, different coal types' prices, and basis differences between different contracts and regions. [20][28][30] - **Inter - month Spread** - The report provides inter - month spread data for coking coal and coke, including spreads between different contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01. 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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Methanol futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend, and the overall market is expected to continue to be slightly stronger. The international device operating rate continued to decline, the gas restriction in Iran expanded, most of the devices stopped, the port spot liquidity was sufficient, and the overall trading was light. The coal price fell weakly, the domestic supply was loose, the MTO start - up in the inland area was stable, and the price in the inland area fluctuated weakly and stably. The Fed's interest rate cut in December had a weakening impact on methanol futures, and future import disturbances will intensify [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: The futures price closed at 2148, down 24 or 1.1% [2] - Spot market: Different production and consumption regions had different spot prices, such as 1930 yuan/ton in the southern line of Inner Mongolia and 2200 yuan/ton in the Lunan region [2] Important Information - As of December 18, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 70.10%, a decrease of 7.44 percentage points from the previous week. Ningbo Fude stopped production last week, and this week the devices mainly maintained the previous load [3] Logical Analysis - Supply side: The profit of coal - to - methanol was around 450 yuan/ton, the domestic methanol operating rate was stable at a high level, and the domestic supply was continuously loose [4] - Import side: The US dollar price rose slightly, most of the Iranian devices stopped due to gas restrictions, the tender premium increased, the non - Iranian operating rate was stable, the European and American markets continued to decline, the domestic and foreign price difference shrank rapidly, the Southeast Asian re - export window closed, 610,000 tons had been loaded in Iran in December, some non - Iranian supplies were postponed to January, the import volume in January was expected to increase to about 1.5 million tons, and the arrivals in Taicang increased [4] - Demand side: The operating rate of MTO devices declined. Some MTO devices had different operating loads, such as the 690,000 - ton/year MTO device of Xingxing was stable, while some devices of Nanjing Chengzhi and others were operating under - loaded, and the 600,000 - ton/year DMTO device of Ningbo Fude stopped [4] - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation cycle ended, the basis was relatively strong; the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuated slightly [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Go long on the 05 contract at low prices [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6]