大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，外盘贵金属在历史高位附近窄幅波动，伦敦金当前 交投于 3641 美元附近；伦敦银当前交投于 42.2 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金最 终收涨 0.1%，报 831.6 元/克；沪银主力合约最终收涨 0.88%，报 10017 元/千 克。 2.美元指数:美元指数低位盘整，当前交投于 97.56 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率小幅反弹，当前交投于 4.07%附近。 1.美国宏观：①美国 9 月一年期通胀率预期初值 4.8%，预期 4.7%，前值 4.80%。②美国 9 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 55.4，预期 58，前值 58.2。 2. ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on non - ferrous metals released on September 15, 2025, covering multiple non - ferrous metal varieties including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The overall macro - environment shows that the market has increased expectations for three interest rate cuts within the year due to factors such as the US CPI in August and weak non - farm payroll data. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper supply is tight, while alumina is in an oversupply situation. [8] Group 4: Copper Market Review - The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,940 yuan/ton, up 0.35%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced positions by 1,572 lots to 520,900 lots. The spot market showed weakening procurement sentiment, with different regions having different changes in spot premiums. [2] Key Information - As of September 15, the national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.99 tons to 15.42 tons. The planned merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources may create the world's largest copper mine in the early 2030s. China's new energy vehicle production in August 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. The average export benchmark price of copper concentrate in Indonesia in the second half of September increased by 2.29% compared to the first half. [3][4][5] Logic Analysis - Macroscopically, the market expects interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, copper supply is tight due to production accidents and policies, and consumption shows a marginal weakening trend. [8] Trading Strategies - For single - sided trading, consider laying out long positions after a pull - back and pay attention to the support level of $10,000/ton. Hold cross - market positive arbitrage positions and stay on the sidelines for options. [8] Group 5: Alumina Market Review - The alumina 2601 contract rose by 13 yuan to 2,935 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. [10] Key Information - India postponed the approval of an alumina project, which may delay the second - phase project of a factory. The weighted average full cost of alumina decreased, and the industry average profit increased. The national alumina production capacity and inventory situation changed. [11][12][14] Logic Analysis - Alumina supply and demand remain in an oversupply situation, with a weak fundamental trend, but beware of the impact of "anti - involution" sentiment on prices. [15] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading is expected to continue the weak operation pattern. Stay on the sidelines for both arbitrage and options trading. [16][17] Group 6: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract rose by 5 yuan to 21,025 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. [19] Key Information - From January to August, real estate development data showed a decline. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and some overseas electrolytic aluminum projects had new developments. [19][21] Logic Analysis - Macroscopically, the market expects interest rate cuts, and overseas and domestic fundamentals support the price. Although there may be short - term inventory fluctuations, the annual supply - demand shortage pattern remains. [22] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and continue to be bullish on pull - backs. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [23][24] Group 7: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 25 to 20,545 yuan/ton. Spot prices in most regions increased. [26] Key Information - The policy of standardizing investment promotion affects the recycled aluminum industry, with some regions having more obvious impacts. The weighted average full cost of the ADC12 industry increased, and the theoretical profit expanded. The exchange will start the standard warehouse receipt generation business for cast aluminum alloy futures. [26][29][30] Logic Analysis - The policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and downstream demand is increasing. The alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and strong. [31] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Follow the upward trend of aluminum prices, and be bullish after pull - backs. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [32][33] Group 8: Zinc Market Review - The Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.13% to 22,310 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 1,484 lots to 221,800 lots. The spot market had stable quotes and weak downstream demand. [35] Key Information - Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and Peru's zinc concentrate production in July 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. [36] Logic Analysis - In September, domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and consumption is weak. Overseas, LME inventory is decreasing, which supports the LME zinc price. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may rise. [39] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Zinc prices may be strong in the short term, and consider laying out short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [40] Group 9: Lead Market Review - The Shanghai lead 2510 rose 1.15% to 17,160 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 3,021 lots to 91,400 lots. The spot market had different trading situations. [42] Key Information - Domestic lead ingot inventory increased, and the price of imported lead ore was at a loss. Some domestic smelters may advance winter storage plans. [43][44] Logic Analysis - Domestic secondary lead smelters are reducing production due to losses, and downstream pre - holiday stocking may support prices. However, if the lead ingot import window opens, prices may fall. [45] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The Shanghai lead price is expected to be strong in the short term, but beware of price drops after the inflow of imported lead ingots. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [47] Group 10: Nickel Market Review - The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2510 rose 1,390 to 122,580 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 690 lots. Spot premiums changed slightly. [49] Key Information - The land seizure incident in Indonesia had no major impact on nickel production. Vale Indonesia is in talks for three nickel smelter projects, and Zhongwei Co., Ltd.'s nickel smelting capacity in Indonesia is ramping up. [50] Logic Analysis - The market is concerned about the interest rate cut amplitude. Although it is the peak demand season, supply also increases, and LME inventory is rising, putting pressure on prices. [51] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [53] Group 11: Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2511 contract rose 155 to 13,070 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,671 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given. [55] Key Information - Many stainless steel enterprises are carrying out low - carbon emission transformation, and global green trade rules are being reconstructed. [56] Logic Analysis - Macro - factors and the rise in nickel prices support stainless steel prices. With the approaching of the consumption peak season, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [56] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage trading. [57][58] Group 12: Tin Market Review - The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 273,960 yuan/ton, up 1,110 yuan/ton or 0.41%. The spot price decreased slightly, and the terminal consumption situation was different in different industries. [60] Key Information - China's new energy vehicle production in August 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. Indonesia's refined tin export volume in August decreased by 49% year - on - year. [61][62] Logic Analysis - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates. Tin ore supply is tight, and demand may be postponed. LME and domestic inventories are increasing. [63] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the increase in inventory restricts the upward space. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [64] Group 13: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 0.86% to 8,800 yuan/ton after an intraday high - low fluctuation. Spot prices in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, while other regions remained stable. [65][66] Key Information - An important article will be published emphasizing the construction of a unified national market. The production and inventory data of industrial silicon and its downstream products are given. [67][69] Logic Analysis - As leading manufacturers resume production, the supply - demand of industrial silicon will change from tight balance to slight surplus. Although the price may pull back, the cost increase and low inventory will limit the decline. [69] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Buy on pull - backs. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options after a pull - back. Participate in reverse arbitrage for the 11 and 12 contracts. [70] Group 14: Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract fell 0.34% to 53,545 yuan/ton. Spot prices had a certain range. [71] Key Information - The same important article about the unified national market construction is mentioned. The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but there are short - term multi - empty factors. [72] Logic Analysis - The long - term price of polysilicon is likely to rise, but in the short term, there are factors such as the cancellation of 11 - contract warehouse receipts that may cause a deep pull - back. [74] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Fluctuate in the short term and buy on pull - backs in the medium - to - long term. Participate in reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Hold sold out - of - the - money put options. [75] Group 15: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract rose 1,640 to 72,680 yuan/ton, the index reduced positions by 652 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 338 to 38,963 tons. Spot prices remained stable. [76] Key Information - The Ministry of Commerce promotes automobile consumption, and Zijin Mining's lithium project in Argentina is put into production. The Brazilian federal prosecutor's office requires the review of lithium mining licenses. [77][78] Logic Analysis - The overall atmosphere is optimistic with the Fed's possible interest rate cut. Although demand is strong, long - term supply is also increasing, and prices need to fluctuate and consolidate. [81] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage trading. [82][83] Group 16: Price and Related Data - Multiple tables show the daily data of various non - ferrous metals, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, industry profits, and inventory data from September 9 to September 15, 2025, as well as the comparison with the previous weekend and the end of the previous month. [85][86][87] Group 17: Charts - There are many charts showing the historical trends of various indicators of non - ferrous metals such as spot premiums, term structures, import and export profits, and inventory, providing visual references for price analysis. [96][100][104]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, the long - term price upward trend is certain, recommended to buy on dips in the medium - long term; short - term is volatile, and there may be a deep correction in futures prices. For industrial silicon, the short - term price may correct, but the decline is limited, and it is recommended to participate in long positions after a sufficient correction [4][6] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Polysilicon**: In September, silicon wafer production is expected to increase by 6GW to 58GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 116,000 tons. The polysilicon production is expected to remain around 130,000 tons. The total inventory in the polysilicon industry is close to 400,000 tons, and the downstream inventory is about 180,000 - 200,000 tons. Long - term price is likely to rise, short - term is volatile. Operation strategies include buying on dips for far - month contracts, and conducting reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts [4][5] - **Industrial silicon**: This week, DMC weekly production increased by 0.62% to 48,900 tons, polysilicon weekly production decreased by 0.60% to 31,200 tons, primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 57.6%, and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained flat at 55.5%. Industrial silicon weekly production increased by 2.75% to 95,500 tons. Social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 539,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 176,700 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 221,600 tons. The short - term price may correct, and it is recommended to avoid short - term long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in long positions after a sufficient correction, and conduct reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts [6][7] Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: This week, industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 8,745 yuan/ton. Spot prices generally rose by 100 yuan/ton [10] - **Downstream Demand**: DMC production increased, polysilicon production slightly decreased, and aluminum alloy operating rate increased. DMC weekly production was 48,900 tons, polysilicon weekly production was 31,200 tons, primary aluminum alloy operating rate was 57.6%, and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 55.5% [13] - **Production**: This week, industrial silicon weekly production was 95,500 tons, a 2.75% increase. The number of furnaces in Xinjiang increased by 7, and it is expected that industrial silicon production will increase slightly in the future [25] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 539,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 176,700 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 221,600 tons [26] - **Product Prices**: Industrial silicon spot prices strengthened, organic silicon - related product prices were stable, organic silicon intermediate operating rate increased slightly, and aluminum alloy operating rate increased slightly. Xinjiang refined coal prices and charcoal prices rose [31][35][41][45][48] Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price**: This week, polysilicon spot prices decreased. N - type re - feedstock price was 49.1 - 54 yuan/kg, N - type dense material price was 48.1 - 52 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon price was 48 - 49 yuan/kg. The lower limit of rod - shaped silicon price decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton compared with last week, and granular silicon price remained stable [54][61] - **Silicon Wafer and Battery**: Silicon wafer and battery prices strengthened. Leading enterprises raised silicon wafer quotes, and battery prices increased accordingly. It is expected that battery quotes may continue to rise [62][68] - **Component**: Some component prices increased. Domestic photovoltaic component prices increased, and the cost - side supported the price increase. Some projects have accepted higher prices [69] - **Fundamental Data**: Component domestic orders are average, inventory is moderately high, and the production schedule in September is slightly increased to 45GW. Battery export demand is good, inventory is moderately high, and the production schedule is increased to 57GW. Silicon wafer enterprise operating rate increased, weekly production reached 13.88GW, inventory is 16.55GW, and the production in September is expected to be 58GW. Polysilicon production decreased slightly this week, and factory inventory increased to 234,200 tons. The production in September is expected to be flat compared with August, around 130,000 tons [77][83][88][93]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly production of asphalt remains at a high level, and demand has strengthened on a week - on - week basis. Under the pattern of strong supply and demand, the industrial chain is stably driven. Currently, refinery inventories have stabilized at a low level, while social inventories intend to actively reduce inventory before the end of the year. Asphalt supply is still relatively abundant, and combined with decent refinery processing profits, asphalt valuation is relatively high. - In the short term, oil prices will mainly show a wide - range fluctuating trend. The cost side of asphalt lacks a clear driving force. Unilateral prices are expected to fluctuate, and the cracking spread will be dominated by oil price fluctuations in the short term and bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 - 3500 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On September 15, 2025, the prices of BU2511 (the main contract), BU2512, and BU2601 increased by 0.74%, 0.72%, and 0.81% respectively compared to September 12. The prices of SC2510 and Brent first - line contracts rose by 2.69% and 2.28% respectively. The main contract's position decreased by 4.74% to 241,000 lots, and trading volume dropped by 14.44% to 204,000 lots. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.32% to 67,360 tons [2]. - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: The BU12 - 01 spread decreased by 16.67% to 15, the BU11 - 12 spread increased by 2.70% to 38. The Shandong - main contract basis, East China - main contract basis, and South China - main contract basis decreased by 10.33%, 12.70%, and 20.12% respectively [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price decreased by 0.28% to 3520 yuan/ton, the South China market price dropped by 0.29% to 3490 yuan/ton, and the East China market price remained unchanged at 3520 yuan/ton. The prices of Shandong gasoline, diesel, and petroleum coke decreased by 0.37%, 0.05%, and remained unchanged respectively. The diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at - 6.1, and the exchange - rate mid - price increased by 0.05% to 7.1056 [2]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The asphalt refinery profit decreased by 254.83% to - 48.45 yuan/ton, the refined oil comprehensive profit dropped by 18.88% to 360.77 yuan/ton. The BU - SC cracking spread decreased by 13.83% to - 594.10 yuan/ton, the gasoline spot - Brent spread decreased by 9.93% to 961.63 yuan/ton, and the diesel spot - Brent spread decreased by 10.58% to 709.15 yuan/ton [2]. Part 2: Market Analysis - **Market Overview**: On September 15, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3793 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous day. In North China, the main refineries delivered previous contracts smoothly, and the 70 asphalt was sold in limited quantities, driving up the market average price. In Shandong, some refineries resumed asphalt production, with sufficient supply and good sales. In East China, demand was stable, and there were a small number of low - price shipping resources. In South China, demand was tepid, and low - price social inventory resources were mainly traded [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: The Shandong market's mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3640 - 3800 yuan/ton. The East China market's mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3650 - 3700 yuan/ton. The South China market's mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. In the future, the South China market's demand will be slowly released, and some refineries' low - production of asphalt will support local prices to remain stable [5][6].

研究员： 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 燃料油日报 第一部分 相关数据 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/9/15 | 2025/9/12 | 2025/9/8 | 2025/8/18 | Δ日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 2799 | 2717 | 2767 | 2713 | 82 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 22.2 | 23.0 | 20.2 | 11.2 | -0.8 | | FU仓单(吨) | 101500 | 101500 | 93300 | 80710 | 0 | | LU主力 | 3375 | 3267 | 3398 | 3480 | 108 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 6.6 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 4.2 | -1.2 | | LU仓单 | 10020 | 10020 | 19500 | 1111 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 09 月 15 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 796.0 | 799.5 | -3.5 | I01-I05 | 21.5 | 22.0 | -0.5 | | DCE05 | 774.5 | 777.5 | -3.0 | I05-I09 | 17.5 | -38.5 | 56.0 | | DCE09 | 757.0 | 816.0 | -59.0 | I09-I01 | -39.0 | 16.5 | -55.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 780 | 777 | 3 | 849 | 42 | 64 | 25 | | 纽曼粉 | 790 | 787 | 3 | 845 | 38 | 60 | 21 | | 麦克粉 | 780 | 777 | 3 | 846 | 39 | 61 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of peanuts is still low, and downstream demand remains weak. Peanut prices are expected to be relatively stable in the short term. The spot price of peanut oil is stable, and peanut meal has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mills from pressing is acceptable. The new - season peanut production is expected to increase, and the planting cost will decrease. Peanut futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly [5][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data - **Futures Market**: PK604 closed at 7840, down 10 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 25 (up 38.89%) and an open interest of 438 (down 0.45%); PK510 closed at 7800, unchanged, with a trading volume of 6,694 (down 53.37%) and an open interest of 14,338 (down 20.70%); PK601 closed at 7792, down 18 (-0.23%), with a trading volume of 9,851 (down 18.96%) and an open interest of 40,281 (up 5.39%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: In the spot market, the price of peanuts in Henan decreased, while that in the Northeast increased. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 3.9 yuan/jin, stable; that in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.15 yuan/jin, up 0.2 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.3 - 4.35 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of peanuts in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable. The price of imported Sudan refined new peanuts was 8150 yuan/ton, and that of Senegalese oil - peanuts was 7600 - 7800 yuan/ton, stable. The price of peanut oil was stable, with domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil at 14800 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao was 2980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the 48 - protein peanut meal was 3260 yuan/ton [5][9]. - **Price Difference**: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 48, down 8; the PK04 - PK10 spread was 40, down 10; the PK10 - PK01 spread was 8, up 18 [3]. 2. Market Analysis - The price of peanuts in Henan decreased, while that in the Northeast increased. It is expected that the peanut spot price will be relatively stable in the short term. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, and the mainstream transaction price before the stop was 7300 - 7900 yuan/ton, with the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 8050 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Peanut 11 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. After stabilizing, one can try to go long on Peanut 05 [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: Wait and see [13]. - **Options**: Hold the short position of pk511 - P - 7600 [14]. 4. Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between Peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between Peanut 1 - 4 contracts [16][22][25].

铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5700 | 92 | 76 | 200143 | 33027 | 217964 | -4705 | | SM主力合约 | 5906 | 74 | 66 | 184056 | 39263 | 327726 | 2156 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5400 | 20 | 20 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | 30 | 0 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 538 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/9/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8376 | 54 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8586 | | | | 8696 | 8526 | | 320 | 0 | 210 | 0 | 150 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 9422 | 126 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9382 | | | | 9422 | 9532 | | -40 | 0 | 0 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research on corn and corn starch, released on September 15, 2025, by the Commodity Research Institute [2] Group 2: Data Futures Market - For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2156 with a decrease of 11 (-0.51%), C2605 at 2229 (-8, -0.36%), C2509 at 2255 (-1, -0.04%); for corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2473 (-14, -0.57%), CS2605 at 2571 (-10, -0.39%), CS2509 at 2588 (101, 3.90%) [3] - The trading volume and open interest of most contracts showed significant changes, such as C2601's trading volume increasing by 73.58% and open interest by 1.05% [3] Spot Market and Basis - Corn spot prices varied by region, with today's quotes in Qinggang at 2230 (up 10), Jiamuji Biochemical at 2180 (unchanged), etc; starch spot prices also differed, like Longfeng at 2700 (unchanged), Zhongliang at 2750 (unchanged) [3] - The basis of corn and starch also showed different values in different regions and contracts [3] Spread - Corn inter - delivery spreads like C01 - C05 was -73 (-3), starch inter - delivery spreads like CS01 - CS05 was -98 (-4), and cross - variety spreads like CS09 - C09 was 333 (102) [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Corn - The US corn report lowered the yield per unit, and there is still room for the US corn to rebound; China has imposed tariffs on US corn and sorghum, but the import profit of foreign corn is high, with the December Brazilian import price at 2164 yuan [5] - Northern port flat - price is stable, Northeast corn spot is strong, while North China's corn spot is weak due to increased supply, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has decreased; wheat in North China can still substitute for corn [5][7] - Domestic breeding demand is weak, downstream feed enterprises have high inventory, and corn spot is stable in the short term; with new - season corn about to be listed in large quantities, the corn spot price is expected to fall [7] Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, Shandong corn spot is stable, and starch in Shandong is around 2750 yuan, while Northeast starch spot is weak [8] - This week, corn starch inventory decreased to 122.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.9 million tons from last week (monthly decrease of 6.98%, year - on - year increase of 40.3%); starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking [8] - In the long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state; 01 starch is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel; it is advisable to wait and see for 01 corn [10] Arbitrage - It is recommended to wait and see [11] Group 5: Corn Option Strategies - Enterprises with physical goods can close out short positions of corn call options, or short - term traders can try to sell at high prices and conduct rolling operations [14] Group 6: Related Graphs - The report includes graphs of various data such as corn spot prices in different regions, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 spreads, corn starch 1 - 5 spreads, corn starch 01 contract basis, and corn starch 01 contract spreads [16][17][21]