1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price is expected to continue to rise slightly until the New Year's Day, with the focus of the egg price shifting upwards [5][10] - The supply pressure has been alleviated, and the short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly, while the far - month May contracts can be considered for long - building at low prices [17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, with little change from last Friday. After a small - scale price increase during the week, the egg price entered a stable and wait - and - see state. The inventory in each link decreased, and the red - powder price difference returned to a reasonable level [5] - The price of old hens in the production areas remained stable overall with narrow local adjustments. It is expected that the supply and demand of the old hen market will be in a stalemate next week, and the weekly average price may be around 4.10 yuan/jin [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - On December 18, the weekly slaughter volume of laying hens in the main production areas across the country was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of culled chickens in the week of December 18 was 486 days, the same as the previous week [10] - In November, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 0.008 billion from the previous month, an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in November was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of December 17, the corn price was around 2349 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3118 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2580 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.83 yuan/jin of feed cost per jin of eggs [13] - The price of corn decreased and the price of soybean meal increased this week, resulting in a slight increase in the cost of per - jin eggs. The average price of eggs in the main production areas increased slightly, so the profit per jin of eggs also increased. As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On December 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/bird, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - After the festival, the demand in the sales areas became weak. Coupled with the large inventory pressure in the production areas, the overall market sales were under pressure. The market sales volume decreased month - on - month. As of December 18, the weekly sales volume of eggs in the national representative sales areas was 7023 tons, with little change from last week and at a low level over the years [16] - The inventory in the production link decreased month - on - month, and the inventory in the circulation link increased month - on - month. As of December 18, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly less than last week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly more than the previous week [16] - This week, the vegetable price index and the pork price both increased slightly. On December 17, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 142.01, and the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.81 yuan/kg, with little change from last week [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - capacity speed will be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly, and the far - month May contracts can be considered for long - building at low prices [17] - Single - side: It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Long positions can be considered for the far - month contracts at low prices [17] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [17] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Inventory (Zhuochuang) - Data on the inventory of laying hens in production and the replenishment of brooding chickens over the years are presented in the form of a chart [21] 3.2.2 Culled Chicken Situation - Data on the weekly slaughter volume of culled chickens over the years are presented in the form of a chart [22] 3.2.3 Laying Hen Farming Situation - Data on the age of culled chickens and the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas are involved, but specific data are not described in detail [26] 3.2.4 Price Difference and Basis - Data on the basis of January, May, and September contracts, as well as the price differences of 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 contracts over the years are presented in the form of charts [29][30][33]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 | 第一部分 | | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/22 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7924 | -10 | -0.13% | 49,247 | -18.95% | 28,671 | 0.75% | | PK510 | | 8160 | -30 | -0.37% | 167 | 227.45% | 1,044 | 8.30% | | PK601 | | 8056 | 26 | 0.32% | 3,284 | 17.41% | 18,611 | -9.88% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | | 现货 | | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's December report was bullish for US corn, but high production levels suggest that the US corn market will likely remain in a strong, volatile range [4][7]. - In the domestic market, North - East Chinese corn is relatively strong due to farmers' reluctance to sell, while North - China corn has seen an increase in supply and stable prices. The price difference between North - East and North - China corn has narrowed. Corn futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - Corn starch prices are mainly influenced by corn prices and downstream inventory - building. With rising inventory and relatively stable corn prices, the profitability of starch enterprises has declined. The 03 starch futures contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2220, down 1 (-0.05%); C2605 closed at 2227, down 1 (-0.04%); C2509 closed at 2257, unchanged. For starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2497, down 5 (-0.20%); CS2605 closed at 2532, down 7 (-0.28%); CS2509 closed at 2587, down 3 (-0.12%)[2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions ranged from 2080 - 2430 yuan/ton. Starch spot prices were between 2700 - 2890 yuan/ton. Corn basis values varied from - 177 to 173 yuan/ton, and starch basis values were between 168 - 358 yuan/ton[2]. - **Spreads**: Corn inter - delivery spreads such as C01 - C05 was - 7 (unchanged), C05 - C09 was - 30 (down 1). Starch inter - delivery spreads like CS01 - CS05 was - 35 (up 2), CS05 - CS09 was - 55 (down 4). Cross - variety spreads included CS09 - C09 at 330 (down 3), CS01 - C01 at 277 (down 4), CS05 - C05 at 305 (down 6)[2]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: US corn exports were raised and stocks were lowered in the USDA's December report, but production remained high. Import profits for foreign corn decreased. In the domestic market, North - East corn was strong, while North - China corn supply increased. The price difference with North - China wheat was large, and corn had cost - effectiveness. The short - term outlook for corn spot prices was relatively strong, but there were concerns about seasonal selling pressure in late December and downstream inventory - building [4][5]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks delivering to Shandong deep - processing plants increased. Corn starch inventory rose to 107.4 million tons this week, up 2.5 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 22.3%. Starch prices depended on corn prices and downstream inventory - building. With strong by - product prices, the profitability of starch enterprises declined. The 03 starch futures contract was expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, 03 US corn had support at 430 cents per bushel, and it was recommended to go long on 07 corn at low prices with a light position. For arbitrage, it was advised to wait and see. For options, a short - term put - accumulation strategy with rolling operations was suggested [8][9][10]. 3.3 Corn Options - On December 22, 2025, the C2605 - P - 2240.DCE option had an underlying price of 2,227 and a closing price of 51.00, with a change of - 0.5. The C2603 - P - 2200.DCE option had an underlying price of 2,192 and a closing price of 37.00, with a change of 1.5 [12]. 3.4 Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams showing various aspects of corn and corn - starch prices such as regional corn spot prices, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 spreads, corn - starch 1 - 5 spreads, corn - starch 01 contract basis, and corn - starch 01 contract spreads [14][16][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of commodity options reached 5 million and 90 thousand contracts. The trading volume of silver options was 1 million and 240 thousand contracts, and those of PTA options and lithium carbonate options were 560 thousand and 260 thousand contracts respectively. In terms of open interest, the open interest of silver options exceeded 520 thousand contracts, and that of soda ash options exceeded 400 thousand contracts. In terms of the trading volume PCR, some varieties deviated significantly, such as apple options with a PCR of 2.12 and peanut options with a PCR of only 0.25 [3]. - The IV of PTA options rose by 2.26%. Among agricultural products, the IV of cotton options rose by 0.38%, and that of apple options fell by 2.05%. Among energy and chemical varieties, the IV of PTA options rose by 2.26%, and that of synthetic rubber options fell by 1.44%. Among metal varieties, the IV of each variety fluctuated, with the IV of Shanghai silver options falling by 3.57% [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Quick View 1.1 Trading Volume and Open Interest - The report presents the trading volume, open - interest, and other data of various commodity options, including details such as the trading volume of认购 and认沽, open interest of认购 and认沽, trading volume PCR, and open - interest PCR for each variety [6]. 1.2 Volatility - The report shows the IV change, historical volatility (30 - day, 60 - day, 90 - day), and the difference between implied and historical volatility (隐历差) of various commodity options. For example, the IV of PTA options rose by 2.26%, and its historical volatility for 30 days was 14.49% [12]. 2. Variety Research - For each option variety (such as soybean meal options, rapeseed meal options, PTA options, etc.), the report provides charts of volatility smile curves, volatility term structures, the IV trend in the past month, and the trend of the difference between implied and historical volatility in the past month [16][20][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - and medium - term performance of the bond market was strong this week due to the continued balanced and loose liquidity, stable overnight capital prices below 1.3%, and the potential for some institutions to buy short - term bonds to boost scale at the end of the year. The ultra - long end also recovered in the second half of the week. The report has a cautiously optimistic view on the bond market trend this year, suggesting short - term buying of TL contracts at low prices and taking profits at high prices. It believes that the probability of short - term policy rate cuts is not high, which will restrict the subsequent performance of the short - and medium - term bonds. For the ultra - long end, the 30Y Treasury bond yield around 2.3% may be attractive to allocation investors, but the recovery rhythm may be repeated due to factors such as the imbalance between supply and demand of ultra - long bonds and the unimplemented public offering new regulations [5]. - The continuous decline of overnight capital prices has raised the market's expectation of interest rate cuts to some extent, but the report remains cautious about short - term policy rate cuts. Next week, approaching the New Year and with a net government bond payment of over 300 billion yuan, the capital market may face certain disturbances, and it is recommended to pay attention to the central bank's MLF renewal [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part I: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Comprehensive Analysis - The monthly economic data released at the beginning of the week had few bright spots, but the domestic macro - narrative is still mainly driven by expectations, and the bond market continues to be insensitive to weak fundamental data. The capital market remains balanced and loose, with overnight capital prices stable below 1.3%, which has raised the market's expectation of interest rate cuts to some extent. The short - and medium - term bonds performed strongly this week, and the ultra - long end also recovered in the second half of the week. The central bank's loose stance remains unchanged, and the risks faced by the short - and medium - term bonds in the bond market are relatively controllable. However, the probability of short - term policy rate cuts is not high, which will restrict the subsequent performance of the short - and medium - term bonds. The 30Y Treasury bond yield around 2.3% may be attractive to allocation investors, and the high spread between new and old bonds may provide an additional safety cushion for the TL contract. But considering factors such as the unchanged macro - narrative driven by expectations, concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand of ultra - long bonds, and the unimplemented public offering new regulations, the recovery rhythm of the ultra - long end may be repeated. The report has a cautiously optimistic view on the bond market trend this year [5]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Try to buy TL contracts at low prices, be cautious about chasing high prices, and take profits in a timely manner. - Arbitrage: Wait and see for now [5]. Capital Market Situation - The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation this week to protect the year - end market liquidity. The impact of tax payments and the freezing of funds for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange on the inter - bank capital market was relatively limited. Market capital prices continued to run at a low level, better than expected. As of Friday's close, DR001 reached 1.2706%, a new stage low, and DR007 was 1.4413%, still stable above the policy rate. The overnight and 7 - day non - bank capital spreads were 8.11bp and 7.35bp respectively. In terms of long - term funds, the one - year certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks fluctuated around 1.66% this week [13]. Concerns about Supply and Demand of Ultra - Long Bonds - Since 2024, the absolute scale and proportion of ultra - long - term government bond issuance have increased significantly. In 2025, government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years have accumulated issuance of 6.7 trillion yuan, accounting for about 25.8%. Insurance companies, as the largest net buyers of ultra - long bonds in the secondary market, have seen slower growth in premium income on the liability side than the supply of ultra - long bonds on the asset side in the past two years. After "924" last year, policy incentives and the recovery of risk appetite led to the re - balancing of investors' asset portfolios, with more funds flowing into the equity and some commodity markets, further alleviating the "asset shortage" in the bond market and reducing the demand for long - term bonds. On the one hand, if the narrative of the equity market and some commodities changes, the inflow of funds may slow down. On the other hand, if the financing cost rises significantly, the term structure of government bond issuance may be adjusted, or the central bank may directly buy ultra - long bonds in the secondary market [15][22]. Continued Negative Growth of Some Domestic Demand Indicators - Data since the second half of the year shows that the multiplier effect of the previous policies to expand domestic demand was average. After the policy support weakened, the growth rate of domestic demand indicators declined. However, the domestic macro - narrative is driven by expectations, and the bond market continues to be insensitive to weak fundamental data [27]. Futures Bond Valuation - Calculated based on ChinaBond valuations and futures settlement prices, as of Friday's close, the IRRs of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were approximately 1.6952%, 1.6643%, 1.5795%, and 1.1446% respectively. The overall valuation of the futures bond market is at a reasonable level. The relatively low IRR of the TL contract is partly due to the joint strengthening of the Friday's closing and the spot bond, while the futures settlement price was relatively low [33]. Part II: Relevant Data Tracking Treasury Bond Futures Contract Spreads - Data on the spreads between different Treasury bond futures contracts such as TS, TF, T, and TL are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [38]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - Data on the trading volume and open interest of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [41]. Spot Bond Yields and Spreads - Data on Treasury bond spot yield curves, Treasury bond term spreads, spreads between Treasury bonds and local bonds, and spreads between 10Y Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [44]. US Treasury Bond Yields and Exchange Rates - Data on US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, the spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to have upward momentum at the beginning of the week, but face integer - level pressure. The conversion of contract months may lead to an expansion of basis. The bond market for treasury futures is cautiously optimistic in the short - term, with short - term trading opportunities in the TL contract [21][23]. - Agricultural products have different trends. Protein meal prices are under pressure, sugar is expected to bottom - oscillate, and the cotton - cotton yarn market is strong due to factors such as good sales of new cotton [27][32][54]. - Black metals show different characteristics. Steel prices are range - bound, coking coal and coke may rebound from the bottom, and iron ore prices are volatile [58][61][64]. - Non - ferrous metals also vary. Precious metals like gold and silver are likely to continue their strong trend, while base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc have different price trends due to various factors [70][84][91]. - Energy and chemical products have diverse situations. Crude oil prices are bottom - oscillating, asphalt has support, and fuel oil is weakly - oscillating [116][120][124]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: The market was first down then up last week. The Shanghai Composite Index faces the 3900 - point decision. There may be a style switch, and the acquisition plan of Shenhua may drive large enterprises. Futures contracts' basis may expand after the contract - month change, and short - selling forces have increased [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for unilateral trading; wait for the basis to expand for IM\IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; use a double - buying strategy for options [21]. Treasury Futures - **Investment Logic**: The bond market is less sensitive to weak economic data. The capital supply is loose, increasing the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts. The short - and medium - term bonds are relatively stable, while the long - term bonds' recovery is uncertain [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, buy low and sell high for the TL contract [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Investment Logic**: The global soybean supply is abundant. Domestic soybean meal has an uncertain supply, and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish view for unilateral trading; narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [28]. Sugar - **Investment Logic**: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar supply pressure is easing, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing - production cycle. Domestically, new sugar production is increasing, but there is cost support [31][32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, watch for the support at previous lows; for arbitrage, go long on the January contract and short on the May contract; for options, wait and see [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Investment Logic**: Domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing, but the overall supply is sufficient. There is a lack of positive drivers for oils, but the downward space is limited [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on palm oil after it stops falling and rebounds, and wait and see for soybean oil and rapeseed oil; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [35]. 3.3 Black Metals Steel - **Investment Logic**: The steel price is range - bound. The replenishment expectation has not been fulfilled, and the cost has support, but the upward space is limited [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, maintain the oscillating trend; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position in the coil - rebar spread; for options, wait and see [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Logic**: The coking coal auction situation has improved, but the price increase is not widespread. The coking coal supply may improve in the future, but the price fluctuation is large [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see or go long lightly at low prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [62]. Iron Ore - **Investment Logic**: The iron ore supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price increase space is limited [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is oscillating; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [65]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Investment Logic**: The obstacles to interest - rate cuts have decreased, and gold and silver are likely to continue their strong trend [70]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold long positions in gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options [72]. Base Metals - **Investment Logic**: Different base metals have different price trends due to factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policies [79][85][91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Each metal has different trading strategies, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading, mainly depending on its specific situation [79][85][91]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - **Investment Logic**: Geopolitical factors cause frequent disturbances, and the oil price is bottom - oscillating. The supply - demand surplus pressure is significant [116]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is weakly oscillating; for arbitrage, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil - price spread is weak; for options, wait and see [117]. Asphalt - **Investment Logic**: The raw - material risk is difficult to prove false, and the asphalt price has support. The supply - demand fundamentals may weaken [120]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is oscillating; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [120]. Fuel Oil - **Investment Logic**: The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weakly oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [124]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go short; for arbitrage, the low - sulfur and high - sulfur crack spreads are weak; for options, wait and see [124].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, in the long - term, anti - involution will drive price increases, and buying on dips is the best strategy. However, currently, terminal demand is weak, it takes time to implement price hikes across the industry chain. In the short - term, there is a combination of negative factors from increased warehouse receipts and positive factors from anti - involution in the industry chain, leading to large price fluctuations, so risk control is necessary [4][5]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, due to some manufacturers' planned joint production cuts to support prices and the strengthening of coking coal prices, the industrial silicon futures may rebound, but attention should be paid to the pressure at the 8800 level. In the medium - term, polysilicon enterprises may cut production, which may lead to a weakening of industrial silicon demand and a potential decline in prices. It is recommended to take profits on short - term long positions in time and sell short on rallies based on downstream demand changes [6][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Polysilicon - **Supply and demand**: In December, silicon wafer production scheduling decreased by 9GW month - on - month to 45GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 90,000 tons. In December, the polysilicon production was 112,000 tons, and the polysilicon inventory continued to accumulate. The current upstream inventory of polysilicon is about 2.9 million tons, the downstream raw material inventory is about 1.5 million tons, and the inventory of warehouse receipts and traders is about 400,000 tons [4]. - **Price and market sentiment**: Last week, some polysilicon enterprises raised the spot price to over 65,000 yuan/ton. At the Xi'an Photovoltaic Conference, all links in the upstream and downstream issued self - discipline initiatives to strictly control the operating rate and prices. The recent large - scale spot price adjustment of polysilicon has not led to short - term transactions. The increase in warehouse receipts of Orient Hope and Jinnuo on Friday last week has put some short - term downward pressure on the market [4]. - **Trading strategy**: - **Unilateral trading**: Long - term bullish, but large short - term fluctuations, need to control risks and participate with caution [5]. - **Arbitrage**: None [5]. - **Options**: None [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply and demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 46,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the weekly output of polysilicon was 26,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60%, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 59.8%, also unchanged from the previous week. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 80,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.52%. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 553,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 195,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,100 tons. The downstream raw material inventory was 235,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,900 tons [6]. - **Trading logic**: At the Guangzhou meeting, some manufacturers planned to jointly cut production to support prices. The strengthening of coking coal prices may lead to a short - term rebound in industrial silicon futures, with attention to the pressure at the 8800 level. In the medium - term, polysilicon enterprises may cut production, leading to a weakening of industrial silicon demand and a potential decline in prices [6]. - **Trading strategy**: - **Unilateral trading**: Take profits on short - term long positions and sell short near the pressure level [7]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money call options [7]. - **Arbitrage**: None [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market performance**: This week, the industrial silicon futures rebounded slightly, with the main contract closing at 8690 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon spot price remained stable this week [10]. - **Downstream demand**: The weekly output of DMC increased, the output of polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy was seasonally adjusted downwards. The weekly output of DMC was 46,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the weekly output of polysilicon was 26,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60%, unchanged from the previous week, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 59.8%, also unchanged from the previous week [13]. - **Industrial silicon production**: This week, the industrial silicon output decreased. According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 80,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.52%. The total number of open furnaces for industrial silicon this week was 245, a month - on - month decrease of 5. The number of open furnaces increased by 2 in Xinjiang, decreased by 2 in Yunnan, decreased by 4 in Gansu, and decreased by 1 in Sichuan [18]. - **Inventory situation**: The factory inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the downstream raw material inventory increased. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 553,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 195,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,100 tons. The downstream raw material inventory was 235,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,900 tons [23][24]. - **Related product prices**: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable this week. The prices of DMC and terminal organic silicon products also remained stable. The price of aluminum alloy increased, and the operating rate remained stable. The industrial silicon raw material price remained stable this week [30][34][43][46]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price trends**: The prices of polysilicon and its downstream main materials are shown in the table. For example, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and there was no change compared with the beginning of December and the end of November [52]. - **Component fundamentals**: In December, the component order situation was poor, and the manufacturer's production scheduling was significantly adjusted downwards compared with November. It is expected that the domestic photovoltaic component production scheduling in December will be adjusted down to around 42GW. In terms of inventory, the European photovoltaic component inventory increased to 33.1GW, and the domestic photovoltaic manufacturer's component inventory was 31.2GW, at a relatively low - medium level [60]. - **Battery chip fundamentals**: The export demand for batteries was good. The inventory of specialized battery manufacturers was 9.44GW, with a slight inventory accumulation. In November, the component production scheduling was adjusted downwards, and the battery production scheduling followed suit to 48GW [61]. - **Silicon wafer fundamentals**: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises was adjusted downwards, and the weekly output of silicon wafers decreased to 10.67GW. Currently, the silicon wafer link basically schedules production according to demand, and the silicon wafer inventory is 21.5GW. The silicon wafer production scheduling in December was 45GW, a month - on - month decrease of 9GW [66]. - **Polysilicon fundamentals**: This week, the polysilicon output decreased slightly, and the factory inventory remained at 291,000 tons. In November, the total production suspension scale of Tongwei Co., Ltd. in Yunnan and Sichuan was 370,000 tons/year. In December, the third - phase project in Inner Mongolia increased the production cut intensity. Some production capacities of GCL Technology and Asia Silicon Industry were cut, while some production capacities of Daqo New Energy and Xinte Energy climbed to full production. It is expected that the polysilicon production in December will decrease by 2,000 tons month - on - month to 112,000 tons [71].

铂钯交易热情高涨，连创上市以来新高 研究员：袁正 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 交易、套利数据追踪 7 第三章 基本面数据追踪 13 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 铂钯：交投热情高涨，国内溢价快速走阔 ◼【综合分析】 宏观面：本周公布多个重要的经济数据，显示了经济数据与美联储政策持续博弈——周二公布的美国11月非农就业小幅回升但失业率升至 4.6%创下四年新高；周三疲软的PMI数据强化了经纪降温的预期，助推了降息交易；周四超预期放缓的CPI数据仅带来短时间的市场狂欢，随 后被官员质疑因政府关门导致数据失真，这为通胀前景蒙上阴影，周五联储"三把手"威廉姆斯的鹰派发言迅速扭转了CPI数据带来的乐观情 绪，推动了美元指数走强。另一方面，美联储主席人选的悬念也牵动着市场神经，特朗普表态希望"超级鸽 ...

铜周报：长单TC好于预期，铜价高位盘整 研究员： 王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022141 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 内外盘价格走势 4 第三章 铜基本面分析及周度数据跟踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析及操作策略 n 宏观面 11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，略好于市场预期，但失业率意外升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来新高，显示劳动力市场持续降温。11月核心CPI降到2.6%，其中一部分原因或 是由于美国政府关门导致的数据问题，市场对2026年降息两次的预期没有变。明年5月鲍威尔任期结束，美联储新任主席或在1月出结果，后续市场预期2026年美国货币政策 仍保持宽松。 n 铜矿 n 废铜 n 精铜 GALAXY FUTURES 2 中国冶炼厂与antogagastat敲定2026年铜精矿长单加工费benchmark为0美元/吨和0美分/磅，远好于最初-10到-15美元/吨的预期，在高升水和高硫酸价的情况下，国内外 冶炼厂减停产风险下降，原料供应问题仍是未来影响冶炼厂生产的关键因素。 12月19日SMM进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.65美元 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The zinc market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, causing the Shanghai zinc price to fluctuate widely. In the short term, the expected reduction in domestic smelter production and the continuous decline in domestic social inventories support the zinc price. However, the weakening consumption and continuous inventory build - up overseas put pressure on the LME zinc price, which in turn affects the Shanghai zinc price. Traders should focus on the start - up of domestic smelters and macro factors [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Trading Logic - **Supply - side**: In the mining sector, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have stabilized. The import window for zinc concentrate has reopened, and the price difference between imported and domestic zinc concentrates has narrowed, reducing the smelters' enthusiasm for domestic zinc concentrates. The trading volume of imported zinc ore has been light recently. On the smelting side, the reduction in zinc concentrate processing fees and lower zinc prices have shrunk the profits of most domestic smelters, and there is an expected further increase in the reduction of domestic refined zinc production in December [5]. - **Demand - side**: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises has continued to decline, while the operating rates of die - casting and zinc oxide enterprises are acceptable. Domestic refined zinc consumption has gradually weakened as the consumption season approaches [5]. - **Inventory**: As of December 18, the total zinc ingot inventory in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 122,200 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from December 11 and 3,500 tons from December 15. The continuous decline in domestic inventories provides some support for the zinc price [5]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy - **Single - side trading**: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely. - **Arbitrage trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Market Data - The report mentions aspects such as spot premiums, basis in major consumption areas, absolute prices, monthly spreads, trading volume, and open interest of Shanghai zinc, as well as social inventories, bonded area inventories, LME inventories, LME cancelled warrant ratios, and LME inventory distribution by region, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [7][13][16][17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global and Domestic Production**: From January to October 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 10.4892 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 737,600 tons or 7.56%. Overseas zinc concentrate production was 7.0222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 532,600 tons or 8.21%, and Chinese zinc concentrate production was 3.467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 205,000 tons or 6.28%. In November, domestic zinc concentrate production was 311,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86% and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. It is expected that December production will increase by 2.76% month - on - month to 320,000 tons [28]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: As of November, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 0.48 days year - on - year to 20.8 days, but has been decreasing month by month recently. The inventory of zinc concentrates in major domestic ports increased by 12,000 tons month - on - month to 312,000 tons [28][43]. 3.3.2 Zinc Ore Import - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 340,900 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% (164,500 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.3489 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59%. In November, the import volume is expected to recover [30]. - **Import Source**: In October 2025, the top three import sources were Peru (95,700 physical tons, accounting for 28.1%), Australia (49,800 physical tons, accounting for 14.6%), and Russia (32,400 physical tons, accounting for 9.5%) [30]. 3.3.3 Domestic Ore Supply - Overall, domestic ore supply has decreased, and imported zinc concentrates are expected to decline. It is expected that the supply of domestic zinc concentrates in November may decrease [42]. 3.3.4 Zinc Ore Processing Fees - In December, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 2,000 yuan/ton. On December 19, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index was adjusted down by 0.43 US dollars/dry ton to 50.13 US dollars/dry ton [47]. 3.3.5 Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to October 2025, global refined zinc production was 11.5147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 159,500 tons or 1.4%; consumption was 11.3905 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 102,900 tons or 0.91%. There was a cumulative surplus of 124,200 tons. In October, global refined zinc production was 1.2187 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.76%, and demand was 1.2193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.76%, with a shortage of 600 tons [51]. 3.3.6 Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - **Smelter Operating Rate**: In November, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 87.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.06%. Large - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 91.56%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55%; medium - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 85.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%; small - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 76.05%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.81% [54]. - **Production Volume**: In November, SMM's domestic refined zinc production was 595,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.56% and a year - on - year increase of 16.75%. It is expected that December production will be 570,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.08% and a year - on - year increase of 10.49% [55]. 3.3.7 Zinc Ingot Import and Export - **Import**: In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 277,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 26.63%. - **Export**: In October, the export volume of refined zinc was 8,500 tons, with a net import of 10,300 tons. The export volume is expected to increase in December, which will alleviate the domestic surplus situation to some extent [58][59]. 3.3.8 Downstream Consumption - **Primary Processing**: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises has continued to decline, while the operating rates of die - casting and zinc oxide enterprises are acceptable. The report also mentions the raw material and finished product inventories of primary processing enterprises, but no specific data is provided [5][66][67]. - **End - use Industries**: The report covers real - estate construction data, infrastructure investment, domestic automobile production, and domestic white - goods production, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [73][84][94][97].