Report Overview - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Report Date: December 22, 2025 [2] IM Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,408.35, up 1.07%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 146,625 lots, a decrease of 34,234 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 349,926 lots, a decrease of 9,760 lots from the previous day [4][5]. - The main contract of IM rose 0% to close at 7,203.6 points. The main contract was at a discount of 204.75 points, a decrease of 16.74 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -11.66% [4][5]. Basis and Cost - The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.56 points, 0.56 points, 0.56 points, and 43.43 points respectively [5]. Main Seats - In the IM2601 contract, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), and Zhongtai Futures (on behalf of clients) [19]. IF Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 300 was 4,611.62, up 0.95%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 92,818 lots, a decrease of 20,870 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 263,391 lots, a decrease of 6,175 lots from the previous day [24][25]. - The main contract of IF rose 0% to close at 4,564.8 points. The main contract was at a discount of 46.82 points, a decrease of 5.64 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -4.21% [24][25]. Basis and Cost - The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 4.31 points, 4.76 points, 4.76 points, and 35.95 points respectively [25]. Main Seats - In the IF2601 contract, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), and CITIC Construction Investment (on behalf of clients) [37]. IC Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 500 was 7,255.66, up 1.20%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 103,188 lots, a decrease of 20,574 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 256,784 lots, an increase of 449 lots from the previous day [42][43]. - The main contract of IC rose 0% to close at 7,123.2 points. The main contract was at a discount of 132.46 points, a decrease of 18.31 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -7.63% [42][43]. Basis and Cost - The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 0.6 points, 0.6 points, 0.6 points, and 65.87 points respectively [43]. Main Seats - In the IC2601 contract, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), and Guoxin Futures (on behalf of clients) [55]. IH Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of SSE 50 was 3,020.23, up 0.53%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 36,995 lots, a decrease of 12,536 lots from the previous day. The total open interest was 83,589 lots, a decrease of 1,987 lots from the previous day [61][62]. - The main contract of IH rose 0% to close at 3,018.4 points. The main contract was at a discount of 1.83 points, a decrease of 3.89 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -0.25% [61][62]. Basis and Cost - The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 5.39 points, 5.39 points, 5.39 points, and 23.87 points respectively [62]. Main Seats - In the IH2601 contract, the top five seats in terms of trading volume were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients), Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients), Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients), Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients), and Guoxin Futures (on behalf of clients) [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the pace of capacity reduction in the short - term will be relatively gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, one can consider building long positions at low prices [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: JD01 closed at 3077, JD05 at 3496, and JD09 at 3974, all unchanged from the previous day. The spreads between different months (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) also remained unchanged [2]. - Price ratios: Ratios of egg to corn and egg to soybean meal for different contracts (01, 05, 09) remained unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg prices: The average price in the main production areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day, while the average price in the main sales areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. Egg prices in most regions were stable, with some local fluctuations [2][4]. - Culled chicken prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.84 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Costs: The average price of corn was 2348 yuan, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the average price of soybean meal was 3118 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.58 yuan, unchanged [2]. - Profits: The profit per chicken was - 0.37 yuan/feather, down 2.87 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Egg production and sales: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas as of December 18 was 7023 tons, remaining at a low level over the years [5]. - Chicken inventory and production: The number of culled chickens in the main production areas as of December 18 was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average age of culled chickens was 486 days, remaining unchanged [5]. - Profit situation: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, showing a slight recovery; on December 12, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, down 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - Inventory situation: As of December 18, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, showing a slight decrease, while the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, showing a slight increase [6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. It is expected that near - month contracts will fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, one can consider building long positions at low prices [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. One can consider building long positions in far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Sales Remain Stable, Cotton Prices Fluctuate with an Uptrend [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to continue trading within a range due to limited fundamental contradictions. The domestic cotton market is expected to see cotton prices continue to fluctuate with an upward bias due to better - than - normal new cotton sales in the short term and stable downstream demand [8][29] Summary by Directory Part I: International and Domestic Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and the US cotton is expected to continue trading within a range. As of December 12, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.225 million tons, accounting for 72.5% of the annual US cotton production forecast, 10% slower than the same period last year. The weekly and quarterly deliverable ratios are rising. The sales volume of US upland cotton decreased week - on - week, and the shipment volume increased slightly [8] - **Brazil**: As of December 13, the cotton planting in the 2025/26 season was 10.1% complete, 4.8 percentage points higher than the previous period but 2.1 percentage points slower than the same period last year. The planting progress in the early stage was slower due to the late harvest of soybeans in some areas [8] - **India**: The CAI's latest report shows that compared with the previous month, the production, import, and export of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season have been adjusted, and the domestic demand has been reduced, resulting in a 230,000 - ton increase in ending stocks [8] - **Global**: According to the latest USDA forecast in December, the global cotton production decreased by 64,000 tons to 26.08 million tons, consumption decreased by 60,000 tons to 25.82 million tons, and the ending stocks remained relatively stable at 16.54 million tons [8] Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: As of December 17, 2025, the cumulative official inspection of cotton was 5.587795 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.66%. The new cotton picking is basically over, and the processing has entered the final stage. Cotton companies are more willing to build inventories, and the sentiment of holding back sales has increased [29] - **Demand Side**: As of December 4, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 2.736 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years. As of December 18, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 65.2%, a 0.15% decrease from the previous week. Spinning mills are cautious about replenishing stocks, and the raw material inventory days are slowly decreasing [29] Option Trading Strategy - The volatility decreased slightly compared with the previous day. The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.7094, and the PCR of the trading volume of the main contract was 0.8660. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [43] Futures Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the US cotton will mostly trade within a range in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [47] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: The document shows the historical trends of the internal - external cotton price difference and the 9 - 1 month price difference trend, which can help understand the price relationship between domestic and international cotton and the price difference between different contract months [50][51] - **Mid - end Situation**: It presents the operating load of pure cotton yarn mills, the load of all - cotton grey fabric mills, and the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric, reflecting the production and inventory status of the mid - end of the cotton industry chain [54] - **Cotton Inventory**: It shows the historical data of national cotton commercial inventory, spinning mill industrial inventory, and reserve inventory, which helps to understand the overall inventory situation of the cotton market [56] - **Spot - Futures Basis**: It includes the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the average basis trend of US seven - major market upland cotton, and the basis of C32S cotton yarn spot - Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contract, which is important for analyzing the relationship between spot and futures prices [59]

Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts' closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest data for CF and CY contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 [2] - Spot prices of various cotton and yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, Cot A, and CY IndexC32S, along with their price changes [2] - Price spreads are given, including cotton and yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads, as well as domestic - foreign spreads [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - As of December 18, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.4244 million tons, accounting for 78% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 9% slower than the same period last year [4] - The ON - CALL data shows that as of December 12, 2025, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1,039 to 21,369, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to last week [4] - In November 2025, the export volume of all - cotton grey fabrics was 48.58 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 22%, and the export value was $46.23 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [5] - The new cotton in the 25/26 season is in good harvest, but the sales progress is fast, and ginneries have little pressure to sell. There are rumors that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang may decrease next year, and Xinjiang textile mills are expected to expand production capacity, all of which are positive for cotton prices [6] - Sino - U.S. relations are easing, and the mutual reduction of tariffs is beneficial for China's textile and clothing exports [6] - The cotton fundamentals are strong, and the price is expected to rise further. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [6] Trading Strategies - The U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish in the short - term [7] - For arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [8][9] Yarn Industry - The overall atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market is weak, except for high - count yarns. Some traders are optimistic about future consumption and buy on dips [9] - The pure - cotton grey fabric market remains differentiated. Weaving mills' orders have declined, and they mainly have small orders with tight delivery times. Profits are in the red, and they are not confident about the post - Chinese New Year market [9] Group 3: Options - Options contract data including closing prices, price change rates, implied volatility, and other parameters are presented for CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC [11] - The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly yesterday. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 is 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 is 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 is 17.8% [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is 0.7339, and the volume PCR is 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options have decreased today [12] - It is recommended to wait and see in options trading [13] Group 4: Relevant Attachments - Figures show various price spreads and basis data, including 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month cotton basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][18][22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price is expected to continue to rise slightly until the New Year's Day, with the focus of the egg price shifting upwards [5][10] - The supply pressure has been alleviated, and the short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly, while the far - month May contracts can be considered for long - building at low prices [17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, with little change from last Friday. After a small - scale price increase during the week, the egg price entered a stable and wait - and - see state. The inventory in each link decreased, and the red - powder price difference returned to a reasonable level [5] - The price of old hens in the production areas remained stable overall with narrow local adjustments. It is expected that the supply and demand of the old hen market will be in a stalemate next week, and the weekly average price may be around 4.10 yuan/jin [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - On December 18, the weekly slaughter volume of laying hens in the main production areas across the country was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of culled chickens in the week of December 18 was 486 days, the same as the previous week [10] - In November, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 0.008 billion from the previous month, an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in November was 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13% year - on - year decrease [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of December 17, the corn price was around 2349 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3118 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2580 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.83 yuan/jin of feed cost per jin of eggs [13] - The price of corn decreased and the price of soybean meal increased this week, resulting in a slight increase in the cost of per - jin eggs. The average price of eggs in the main production areas increased slightly, so the profit per jin of eggs also increased. As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On December 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/bird, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - After the festival, the demand in the sales areas became weak. Coupled with the large inventory pressure in the production areas, the overall market sales were under pressure. The market sales volume decreased month - on - month. As of December 18, the weekly sales volume of eggs in the national representative sales areas was 7023 tons, with little change from last week and at a low level over the years [16] - The inventory in the production link decreased month - on - month, and the inventory in the circulation link increased month - on - month. As of December 18, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly less than last week, and the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly more than the previous week [16] - This week, the vegetable price index and the pork price both increased slightly. On December 17, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 142.01, and the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.81 yuan/kg, with little change from last week [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - capacity speed will be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly, and the far - month May contracts can be considered for long - building at low prices [17] - Single - side: It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Long positions can be considered for the far - month contracts at low prices [17] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [17] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Inventory (Zhuochuang) - Data on the inventory of laying hens in production and the replenishment of brooding chickens over the years are presented in the form of a chart [21] 3.2.2 Culled Chicken Situation - Data on the weekly slaughter volume of culled chickens over the years are presented in the form of a chart [22] 3.2.3 Laying Hen Farming Situation - Data on the age of culled chickens and the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas are involved, but specific data are not described in detail [26] 3.2.4 Price Difference and Basis - Data on the basis of January, May, and September contracts, as well as the price differences of 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 contracts over the years are presented in the form of charts [29][30][33]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 | 第一部分 | | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/22 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | | 7924 | -10 | -0.13% | 49,247 | -18.95% | 28,671 | 0.75% | | PK510 | | 8160 | -30 | -0.37% | 167 | 227.45% | 1,044 | 8.30% | | PK601 | | 8056 | 26 | 0.32% | 3,284 | 17.41% | 18,611 | -9.88% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | | 现货 | | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's December report was bullish for US corn, but high production levels suggest that the US corn market will likely remain in a strong, volatile range [4][7]. - In the domestic market, North - East Chinese corn is relatively strong due to farmers' reluctance to sell, while North - China corn has seen an increase in supply and stable prices. The price difference between North - East and North - China corn has narrowed. Corn futures are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5][7]. - Corn starch prices are mainly influenced by corn prices and downstream inventory - building. With rising inventory and relatively stable corn prices, the profitability of starch enterprises has declined. The 03 starch futures contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2220, down 1 (-0.05%); C2605 closed at 2227, down 1 (-0.04%); C2509 closed at 2257, unchanged. For starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2497, down 5 (-0.20%); CS2605 closed at 2532, down 7 (-0.28%); CS2509 closed at 2587, down 3 (-0.12%)[2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions ranged from 2080 - 2430 yuan/ton. Starch spot prices were between 2700 - 2890 yuan/ton. Corn basis values varied from - 177 to 173 yuan/ton, and starch basis values were between 168 - 358 yuan/ton[2]. - **Spreads**: Corn inter - delivery spreads such as C01 - C05 was - 7 (unchanged), C05 - C09 was - 30 (down 1). Starch inter - delivery spreads like CS01 - CS05 was - 35 (up 2), CS05 - CS09 was - 55 (down 4). Cross - variety spreads included CS09 - C09 at 330 (down 3), CS01 - C01 at 277 (down 4), CS05 - C05 at 305 (down 6)[2]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: US corn exports were raised and stocks were lowered in the USDA's December report, but production remained high. Import profits for foreign corn decreased. In the domestic market, North - East corn was strong, while North - China corn supply increased. The price difference with North - China wheat was large, and corn had cost - effectiveness. The short - term outlook for corn spot prices was relatively strong, but there were concerns about seasonal selling pressure in late December and downstream inventory - building [4][5]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks delivering to Shandong deep - processing plants increased. Corn starch inventory rose to 107.4 million tons this week, up 2.5 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 22.3%. Starch prices depended on corn prices and downstream inventory - building. With strong by - product prices, the profitability of starch enterprises declined. The 03 starch futures contract was expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, 03 US corn had support at 430 cents per bushel, and it was recommended to go long on 07 corn at low prices with a light position. For arbitrage, it was advised to wait and see. For options, a short - term put - accumulation strategy with rolling operations was suggested [8][9][10]. 3.3 Corn Options - On December 22, 2025, the C2605 - P - 2240.DCE option had an underlying price of 2,227 and a closing price of 51.00, with a change of - 0.5. The C2603 - P - 2200.DCE option had an underlying price of 2,192 and a closing price of 37.00, with a change of 1.5 [12]. 3.4 Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams showing various aspects of corn and corn - starch prices such as regional corn spot prices, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 spreads, corn - starch 1 - 5 spreads, corn - starch 01 contract basis, and corn - starch 01 contract spreads [14][16][18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading volume of commodity options reached 5 million and 90 thousand contracts. The trading volume of silver options was 1 million and 240 thousand contracts, and those of PTA options and lithium carbonate options were 560 thousand and 260 thousand contracts respectively. In terms of open interest, the open interest of silver options exceeded 520 thousand contracts, and that of soda ash options exceeded 400 thousand contracts. In terms of the trading volume PCR, some varieties deviated significantly, such as apple options with a PCR of 2.12 and peanut options with a PCR of only 0.25 [3]. - The IV of PTA options rose by 2.26%. Among agricultural products, the IV of cotton options rose by 0.38%, and that of apple options fell by 2.05%. Among energy and chemical varieties, the IV of PTA options rose by 2.26%, and that of synthetic rubber options fell by 1.44%. Among metal varieties, the IV of each variety fluctuated, with the IV of Shanghai silver options falling by 3.57% [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Quick View 1.1 Trading Volume and Open Interest - The report presents the trading volume, open - interest, and other data of various commodity options, including details such as the trading volume of认购 and认沽, open interest of认购 and认沽, trading volume PCR, and open - interest PCR for each variety [6]. 1.2 Volatility - The report shows the IV change, historical volatility (30 - day, 60 - day, 90 - day), and the difference between implied and historical volatility (隐历差) of various commodity options. For example, the IV of PTA options rose by 2.26%, and its historical volatility for 30 days was 14.49% [12]. 2. Variety Research - For each option variety (such as soybean meal options, rapeseed meal options, PTA options, etc.), the report provides charts of volatility smile curves, volatility term structures, the IV trend in the past month, and the trend of the difference between implied and historical volatility in the past month [16][20][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - and medium - term performance of the bond market was strong this week due to the continued balanced and loose liquidity, stable overnight capital prices below 1.3%, and the potential for some institutions to buy short - term bonds to boost scale at the end of the year. The ultra - long end also recovered in the second half of the week. The report has a cautiously optimistic view on the bond market trend this year, suggesting short - term buying of TL contracts at low prices and taking profits at high prices. It believes that the probability of short - term policy rate cuts is not high, which will restrict the subsequent performance of the short - and medium - term bonds. For the ultra - long end, the 30Y Treasury bond yield around 2.3% may be attractive to allocation investors, but the recovery rhythm may be repeated due to factors such as the imbalance between supply and demand of ultra - long bonds and the unimplemented public offering new regulations [5]. - The continuous decline of overnight capital prices has raised the market's expectation of interest rate cuts to some extent, but the report remains cautious about short - term policy rate cuts. Next week, approaching the New Year and with a net government bond payment of over 300 billion yuan, the capital market may face certain disturbances, and it is recommended to pay attention to the central bank's MLF renewal [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part I: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Comprehensive Analysis - The monthly economic data released at the beginning of the week had few bright spots, but the domestic macro - narrative is still mainly driven by expectations, and the bond market continues to be insensitive to weak fundamental data. The capital market remains balanced and loose, with overnight capital prices stable below 1.3%, which has raised the market's expectation of interest rate cuts to some extent. The short - and medium - term bonds performed strongly this week, and the ultra - long end also recovered in the second half of the week. The central bank's loose stance remains unchanged, and the risks faced by the short - and medium - term bonds in the bond market are relatively controllable. However, the probability of short - term policy rate cuts is not high, which will restrict the subsequent performance of the short - and medium - term bonds. The 30Y Treasury bond yield around 2.3% may be attractive to allocation investors, and the high spread between new and old bonds may provide an additional safety cushion for the TL contract. But considering factors such as the unchanged macro - narrative driven by expectations, concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand of ultra - long bonds, and the unimplemented public offering new regulations, the recovery rhythm of the ultra - long end may be repeated. The report has a cautiously optimistic view on the bond market trend this year [5]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Try to buy TL contracts at low prices, be cautious about chasing high prices, and take profits in a timely manner. - Arbitrage: Wait and see for now [5]. Capital Market Situation - The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation this week to protect the year - end market liquidity. The impact of tax payments and the freezing of funds for new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange on the inter - bank capital market was relatively limited. Market capital prices continued to run at a low level, better than expected. As of Friday's close, DR001 reached 1.2706%, a new stage low, and DR007 was 1.4413%, still stable above the policy rate. The overnight and 7 - day non - bank capital spreads were 8.11bp and 7.35bp respectively. In terms of long - term funds, the one - year certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks fluctuated around 1.66% this week [13]. Concerns about Supply and Demand of Ultra - Long Bonds - Since 2024, the absolute scale and proportion of ultra - long - term government bond issuance have increased significantly. In 2025, government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years have accumulated issuance of 6.7 trillion yuan, accounting for about 25.8%. Insurance companies, as the largest net buyers of ultra - long bonds in the secondary market, have seen slower growth in premium income on the liability side than the supply of ultra - long bonds on the asset side in the past two years. After "924" last year, policy incentives and the recovery of risk appetite led to the re - balancing of investors' asset portfolios, with more funds flowing into the equity and some commodity markets, further alleviating the "asset shortage" in the bond market and reducing the demand for long - term bonds. On the one hand, if the narrative of the equity market and some commodities changes, the inflow of funds may slow down. On the other hand, if the financing cost rises significantly, the term structure of government bond issuance may be adjusted, or the central bank may directly buy ultra - long bonds in the secondary market [15][22]. Continued Negative Growth of Some Domestic Demand Indicators - Data since the second half of the year shows that the multiplier effect of the previous policies to expand domestic demand was average. After the policy support weakened, the growth rate of domestic demand indicators declined. However, the domestic macro - narrative is driven by expectations, and the bond market continues to be insensitive to weak fundamental data [27]. Futures Bond Valuation - Calculated based on ChinaBond valuations and futures settlement prices, as of Friday's close, the IRRs of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were approximately 1.6952%, 1.6643%, 1.5795%, and 1.1446% respectively. The overall valuation of the futures bond market is at a reasonable level. The relatively low IRR of the TL contract is partly due to the joint strengthening of the Friday's closing and the spot bond, while the futures settlement price was relatively low [33]. Part II: Relevant Data Tracking Treasury Bond Futures Contract Spreads - Data on the spreads between different Treasury bond futures contracts such as TS, TF, T, and TL are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [38]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - Data on the trading volume and open interest of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [41]. Spot Bond Yields and Spreads - Data on Treasury bond spot yield curves, Treasury bond term spreads, spreads between Treasury bonds and local bonds, and spreads between 10Y Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [44]. US Treasury Bond Yields and Exchange Rates - Data on US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, the spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to have upward momentum at the beginning of the week, but face integer - level pressure. The conversion of contract months may lead to an expansion of basis. The bond market for treasury futures is cautiously optimistic in the short - term, with short - term trading opportunities in the TL contract [21][23]. - Agricultural products have different trends. Protein meal prices are under pressure, sugar is expected to bottom - oscillate, and the cotton - cotton yarn market is strong due to factors such as good sales of new cotton [27][32][54]. - Black metals show different characteristics. Steel prices are range - bound, coking coal and coke may rebound from the bottom, and iron ore prices are volatile [58][61][64]. - Non - ferrous metals also vary. Precious metals like gold and silver are likely to continue their strong trend, while base metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc have different price trends due to various factors [70][84][91]. - Energy and chemical products have diverse situations. Crude oil prices are bottom - oscillating, asphalt has support, and fuel oil is weakly - oscillating [116][120][124]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: The market was first down then up last week. The Shanghai Composite Index faces the 3900 - point decision. There may be a style switch, and the acquisition plan of Shenhua may drive large enterprises. Futures contracts' basis may expand after the contract - month change, and short - selling forces have increased [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for unilateral trading; wait for the basis to expand for IM\IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; use a double - buying strategy for options [21]. Treasury Futures - **Investment Logic**: The bond market is less sensitive to weak economic data. The capital supply is loose, increasing the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts. The short - and medium - term bonds are relatively stable, while the long - term bonds' recovery is uncertain [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term, buy low and sell high for the TL contract [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Investment Logic**: The global soybean supply is abundant. Domestic soybean meal has an uncertain supply, and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish view for unilateral trading; narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [28]. Sugar - **Investment Logic**: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar supply pressure is easing, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing - production cycle. Domestically, new sugar production is increasing, but there is cost support [31][32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, watch for the support at previous lows; for arbitrage, go long on the January contract and short on the May contract; for options, wait and see [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Investment Logic**: Domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing, but the overall supply is sufficient. There is a lack of positive drivers for oils, but the downward space is limited [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go long on palm oil after it stops falling and rebounds, and wait and see for soybean oil and rapeseed oil; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [35]. 3.3 Black Metals Steel - **Investment Logic**: The steel price is range - bound. The replenishment expectation has not been fulfilled, and the cost has support, but the upward space is limited [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, maintain the oscillating trend; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position in the coil - rebar spread; for options, wait and see [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Logic**: The coking coal auction situation has improved, but the price increase is not widespread. The coking coal supply may improve in the future, but the price fluctuation is large [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see or go long lightly at low prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [62]. Iron Ore - **Investment Logic**: The iron ore supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price increase space is limited [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is oscillating; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [65]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Investment Logic**: The obstacles to interest - rate cuts have decreased, and gold and silver are likely to continue their strong trend [70]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, hold long positions in gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options [72]. Base Metals - **Investment Logic**: Different base metals have different price trends due to factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policies [79][85][91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Each metal has different trading strategies, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading, mainly depending on its specific situation [79][85][91]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - **Investment Logic**: Geopolitical factors cause frequent disturbances, and the oil price is bottom - oscillating. The supply - demand surplus pressure is significant [116]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is weakly oscillating; for arbitrage, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil - price spread is weak; for options, wait and see [117]. Asphalt - **Investment Logic**: The raw - material risk is difficult to prove false, and the asphalt price has support. The supply - demand fundamentals may weaken [120]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the price is oscillating; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [120]. Fuel Oil - **Investment Logic**: The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weakly oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [124]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, go short; for arbitrage, the low - sulfur and high - sulfur crack spreads are weak; for options, wait and see [124].