1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental weakness of fuel oil persists, with geopolitical factors remaining the main bullish drivers [4]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking has risen to a high level for the same period, but the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand in the first quarter still exists. Attention should be paid to the near - term logistics changes in major supply regions such as Iran and Russia. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply remains abundant, and there is no strong support for its economy compared to natural gas under the background of cold snaps. Geopolitical factors are still the most important bullish drivers, and cost - side risks should be monitored [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Introduction and Overview 3.1.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil prices followed the increase in crude oil costs in early January. The high - sulfur cracking remained at a low level of - 10 to - 7 US dollars per barrel on a month - on - month basis and a medium level on a year - on - year basis, reflecting the weak seasonal fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand in the first quarter. In late January, due to the intensification of the Iranian geopolitical situation and Russian sanctions, the bullish sentiment in the market increased. - Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuated with crude oil costs in January. Its supply increased while demand had no drivers. After the return of Al - Zour's production capacity, low - sulfur production and exports reached a historical high. The low - sulfur exports of the Dangote refinery also increased, and the low - sulfur inventory in Singapore accumulated. The cracking remained at 3 to 5 US dollars per barrel, oscillating at an extremely low level year - on - year; the premium increased by about 2 US dollars per ton month - on - month but was still at the lowest level for the same period [5][11]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is supported by the increase in market demand and geopolitical supply concerns and has risen to a high level for the same period. However, the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand in the first quarter still exists. Attention should be paid to the near - term logistics changes in major supply regions such as Iran and Russia. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply remains abundant. There is no strong support for its economy compared to natural gas under the background of cold snaps. Geopolitical factors are still the most important bullish drivers, and cost - side risks should be monitored [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Strong oscillation, pay attention to geopolitical risks. - Arbitrage: Enter the FU59 positive spread at low prices. Narrow the BU - FU spread at high prices. Narrow the BU - LU spread at high prices. High - sulfur cracking oscillates at a high level, and low - sulfur cracking oscillates at a relatively low level. - Options: None [7][57]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Supply - Due to the continuous Russia - Ukraine conflict and tariff expectations, there is still bullish sentiment in the short - term supply. In the first two weeks of January, the crude oil processing volume decreased month - on - month and was at a medium level year - on - year. - Some refineries were shut down due to attacks, and some refineries resumed operations. The sanctions from Europe and the United States continued, and concerns about fuel oil retention in the market persisted. - In terms of logistics monitoring, the high - sulfur fuel oil exports in the week of January 22 increased by 110,000 tons month - on - month. The expected inflow of fuel oil in Singapore in January remained at a high level. - Mexico's near - term high - sulfur exports decreased and are expected to remain at a low level in February. - The Iranian situation is turbulent, and concerns about high - sulfur fuel oil supply have increased. The exports of high - sulfur fuel oil in Iran rebounded in the week of January 22 [16][17][21][26]. 3.2.2 High - Sulfur Demand - The demand for high - sulfur marine fuel is stably supported, and the marginal increase comes from the stable growth in the number of ships with desulfurization towers. - After the restriction of Venezuelan oil, the market expects that Chinese local refineries may import Iranian and Russian crude oil and fuel oil as substitutes, but the support from feedstock is not strong due to the abundant crude oil quotas at the beginning of the year and the general economic efficiency of high - sulfur fuel oil feedstock [31][36]. 3.2.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The return of the RFCC unit of the Nigerian Dangote refinery was postponed, and the low - sulfur supply remained at a high level. - The low - sulfur supply and exports of the Middle East Al - Zour refinery returned to a high level. - The energy supply in South Sudan is gradually recovering. - In the Pan - Singapore region, the new and restarted production capacities of refineries have been implemented and returned. - The low - sulfur demand has no specific drivers, the marine fuel demand is stable, and the power - generation economy of low - sulfur fuel oil is still inferior to that of natural gas under the background of cold snaps in Europe and the United States, with no strong substitution demand [41][42][43][46][47]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - High - sulfur spot premiums continue to rise, and the on - land inventory in Singapore decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. Short - term fuel oil exports and production are expected to be continuously disturbed by geopolitical and macro - strategic factors, and the unilateral fluctuations of fuel oil will intensify. Geopolitical factors are still the most important bullish drivers. - The near - term low - sulfur supply and exports have increased significantly. - Strategy recommendations: Unilateral: Strong oscillation, pay attention to geopolitical risks. Arbitrage: Enter the FU59 positive spread at low prices. Narrow the BU - FU spread at high prices. Narrow the BU - LU spread at high prices. High - sulfur cracking oscillates at a high level, and low - sulfur cracking oscillates at a relatively low level. Options: None [56][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation. In February - March, as infrastructure projects gradually resume work and demand picks up, against the background of low asphalt inventory, low - cost raw material inventory will be gradually digested, and the transaction price of new raw materials with a premium will rise. The market may experience a resonance of tight supply and warming demand, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips. The recommended strategy is to go long on dips in the unilateral market, and to wait and see on arbitrage and options [6][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Introduction and Market Overview - **Market Review**: In January, asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil costs. There were also independent contradictions such as the shortage of Venezuelan raw materials and rising costs. On January 3, the situation in Venezuela developed into a conflict. On the 5th, the asphalt futures opened higher and then declined. In mid - January, the Iran conflict escalated, driving up crude oil costs, and asphalt prices oscillated at a high level. The shortage of raw materials was priced in, and the overall cost of raw material premiums increased. In the domestic market, low refinery loads and inventories supported spot prices [5][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Crude oil is in a wide - range oscillation. The short - term main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation. In February - March, demand will pick up, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral: Oscillate strongly, go long on dips and not chase the rise; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [7][40]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In January, asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil costs and had independent contradictions. In the domestic market, low refinery loads and inventories supported spot prices. At the beginning of the year, it was the seasonal off - season for demand. In the north, demand was basically stagnant due to low temperatures, while in the south, there was some rush - work demand, which was gradually weakening. It was expected that domestic refineries' low - cost raw material inventory could last for 1 - 2 months, and the raw material premium was rising [10]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - In 2026, the estimated asphalt production in January - February was about 4.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons (+4%). Different refineries had different production changes. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in February was about 1.16 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. Although the Spring Festival and raw material supply would limit production, some refineries' production resumption and stable raw material supply would support the overall production [14]. - In 2025, the total domestic asphalt production was 28.468 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.992 million tons (+12%). The total import was 3.928 million tons, an increase of 465,000 tons (+13.4%) compared with 2024 [15][18]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - In January 2026, domestic asphalt demand was in the seasonal off - season, with a slight month - on - month decline and obvious regional differentiation. In the south, rush - work demand supported the market, while in the north, demand was mainly for winter storage. In February, demand would further decline. Refinery shipments were at a medium level, and terminal demand decreased. The operating rates of road modified asphalt and the utilization rates of relevant capacities also declined [26][27][28]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation - In January 2026, the total asphalt inventory was at an extremely low level compared with the same period. The total inventory decreased by 60,000 tons (-4%) month - on - month to about 1.28 million tons and decreased by 720,000 tons (-36%) year - on - year. Social inventory gradually accumulated, and refinery inventory remained low. The cost increased due to geopolitical conflicts, the raw material premium rose, and the asphalt processing profit decreased significantly. The basis also changed in different regions [31][33]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Raw Materials**: Geopolitical turmoil continued, and crude oil costs oscillated widely. The expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply was basically priced in, and the near - term cost premium increased. There was no short - term concern about supply shortages [40]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The short - term main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips due to the possible resonance of tight supply and warming demand [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral: Oscillate strongly, go long on dips and not chase the rise; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, Henan peanuts rose while Northeast peanuts fell, narrowing the price difference between the two regions. The supply of oil peanuts was sufficient, the inventory of peanut oil increased, and the profit of peanut oil mills was still good, but the profit margin declined. The opening rate of oil mills increased significantly, and the peanut inventory also increased. The spot price of peanuts was relatively strong, the number of warehouse receipts was still low, and the cost of warehouse receipts was between 7,900 - 8,000 yuan/ton. The peanut futures contracts 03 and 05 bottomed out and rebounded [4]. - In February 2026, the spot price of peanuts will be relatively stable, the purchase of oil mills will also be relatively stable, and the profit of oil mills will remain high. Due to the high price of soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil will still fluctuate at a high level, while the prices of peanut meal and peanut oil will be relatively stable, and the inventory of oil mills will continue to increase. After February, the import volume of peanuts will increase. It is rumored that the import price of Senegalese peanuts is relatively low, but the cost of warehouse receipts is still high. It is expected that the peanut futures contracts 03 and 05 will fluctuate between 7,800 - 8,200 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Peanut Situation - Global peanut production has increased, but peanut imports have decreased significantly. According to FAS data, the global peanut production in 2025 is expected to be 51.78 million tons, including 19 million tons in China, 7.35 million tons in India, 3.4 million tons in the United States, 1.8 million tons in Senegal, and 1 million tons in Sudan. The latest data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that the global peanut production in 2025 is 52.36 million tons, with about 19 million tons in China, 7.5 million tons in India, 3.39 million tons in the United States, and 5.24 million tons in Nigeria. In 2025, the global peanut crushing volume was 19.3 million tons, accounting for 37.3%, and the global export volume of peanuts was 4.2 million tons, accounting for 8.1%. Due to the lower - than - expected imports from Sudan and Senegal, China's peanut imports were significantly lower than last year [9]. 3.2 Domestic Peanut Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Sufficient Supply of Oil Peanuts and Narrowing Price Difference between Northeast and Henan Peanuts - In January, the price of Henan peanuts rose, while the price of Northeast peanuts fell, narrowing the price difference between the two regions. The price of Zhengyang peanuts in Henan rose from 3.6 yuan/jin at the beginning of January to 3.7 yuan/jin at the end of the month; the price of Shandong peanuts remained stable at 4.2 yuan/jin; the price of peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin and Changtu, Liaoning fell from 4.7 yuan/jin at the beginning of January to 4.6 yuan/jin at the end of the month; the price of Huayu 23 peanuts in Xingcheng, Liaoning remained stable at 4.35 yuan/jin. In January, peanuts were gradually put on the market, the purchase volume of oil mills increased, the spot price of Henan peanuts rose, and the reluctance of Northeast farmers to sell loosened, causing the spot price of peanuts to fall. Currently, it is the stage of large - scale purchase by oil mills, and the price of oil peanuts depends on the purchase rhythm of peanut oil mills, with the purchase price of oil mills stable at 6,800 - 7,600 yuan/ton. It is expected that in February, the price of Henan peanuts will continue to rise, while the price of Northeast peanuts will be relatively weak, and the price difference between the two regions will continue to narrow [14]. 3.2.2 Significant Decrease in Imported Peanuts and Increase in Imported Peanut Oil - In December 2025, 24,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, and from January to December, 252,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 65.6%. Among them, 17,000 tons were imported from Sudan, 18,000 tons from Senegal, 40,000 tons of shelled peanuts from the United States, 61,000 tons from India, and 39,000 tons from Argentina. From January to December, the cumulative export of peanut kernels was 212,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 47%. According to the seasonal pattern of imports, the traditional peak season for imported peanuts is from March to July after the Chinese New Year. However, due to the low domestic peanut price, it is expected that the import volume of peanuts in 2026 will still be low. It is rumored that the import cost of Senegalese peanuts is 7,400 yuan/ton (with about 3% impurities). In 2025, the cumulative import of peanut oil from January to December was 402,000 tons, 58% higher than last year. The peanut kernels converted from imported peanut oil (45% oil yield) totaled 1.145 million tons, lower than the 1.298 million tons converted last year. Due to the weak domestic consumption of peanut oil, it is expected that the import of peanut kernels in February will still be low, and the import of peanut oil will remain high [23]. 3.2.3 Good Profit of Peanut Oil Mills and Continuous Increase in Peanut Inventory of Oil Mills - Due to the large - scale sales by farmers, the supply of oil peanuts was sufficient and the price was low, so the profit of oil mills was at a high level. As of January 22, the opening rate of peanut oil mills was 47.22%, higher than 26.88% in the previous month and 13.7% last year. The peanut inventory was 177,000 tons, higher than 124,000 tons in the same period of the previous month but lower than 189,000 tons in the same period last year, at a relatively high level in the past. The prices of peanut meal and peanut oil fluctuated little, and the purchase price of peanuts was at a low level, so the profit of oil mills from pressing was high. As of January 22, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills was 190 yuan/ton, lower than 278 yuan/ton in the same period of the previous month but much higher than - 346 yuan/ton in the same period last year. The profit of oil mills mainly comes from peanut oil. Generally, the contribution ratio of peanut oil and peanut meal to the pressing profit is between 2 - 4. As of the end of January, the profit of peanut oil to oil mills was 3.36 times that of peanut meal, and the theoretical break - even price of peanuts was 7,800 yuan/ton. Due to the sufficient supply of oil peanuts, much higher than the same period last year, and the price of oil peanuts will remain at the bottom for a long time, peanut oil mills will still maintain high profits in February [31]. 3.2.4 Expected Increase in New - Crop Planting Costs - In 2025, the peanut planting area increased year - on - year, and the national peanut production was slightly higher than last year. After removing the land rent, most of the planting costs in Henan and other places were 800 yuan/ton. Since some areas in Henan have two crops a year, the planting cost is relatively low. For Jilin and other places, the planting cost including land rent is 1,700 yuan/mu. Calculated at 450 jin/mu (peanut kernels), the cost of peanut kernels in Jilin is 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin. However, due to the high planting income of corn, soybeans, and peanuts in the Northeast region this year, the land rent is also rising. It is currently expected that the land rent per mu will increase by 100 - 200 yuan in the 2026/2027 season, and the peanut planting cost in the Northeast region will be above 4.0 yuan/jin [48]. 3.3后市展望及策略推荐 - In February, the supply of oil peanuts will continue to increase, and the supply will be sufficient. The price of Henan peanuts will continue to rise, while the price of Northeast peanuts will continue to be weak, narrowing the price difference between Northeast and Henan peanuts, as well as the price difference between oil peanuts and common peanuts. The import volume of peanuts is significantly lower than last year. It is rumored that the import price of Senegalese peanuts after the Chinese New Year is 7,400 yuan/ton, and the current warehouse receipt price is between 7,900 - 8,000 yuan/ton, with relatively stable warehouse receipt costs. The prices of peanut oil and peanut meal will remain at a high level, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills will still be good, the peanut inventory of oil mills will continue to increase, and the peanut oil inventory will also increase. It is expected that the price of common peanuts in Henan will fluctuate between 3.6 - 4.0 yuan/jin, and the peanut futures contract 03 is expected to fluctuate between 7,800 - 8,200 yuan/ton [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: Adopt a trading strategy of range - bound thinking for the peanut futures contract 03 between 7,800 - 8,200 yuan/ton [52]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [54]. - **Options**: Sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option when the peanut futures price rises [7][54].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Near the Spring Festival, the overall spot demand for eggs has been strong, leading to price increases. However, after the Spring Festival, as it enters the off - season for egg consumption and the pace of capacity reduction may slow down, egg prices are likely to face pressure. Futures far - month contracts may also face pressure [5][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, the spot price of eggs trended strongly. The average price in major production areas reached a maximum of around 3.94 yuan per catty, and in major sales areas, it reached around 4.22 yuan per catty. The main egg futures contracts also showed strength, with the March contract reaching a maximum of around 3098 [4] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Near the Spring Festival, the overall demand for egg spots is good, and prices are rising. The profit situation is favorable, and the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased. After the Spring Festival, as it enters the off - season for egg consumption, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall reduction has weakened due to the good egg prices recently. It is expected that egg prices may be under pressure after the festival. In the futures market, the pace of capacity reduction may slow down, and far - month contracts may face pressure [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Consider short - selling the June contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In January, the spot price of eggs was strong. The average price in major production areas reached a maximum of 3.94 yuan per catty, and in major sales areas it reached around 4.22 yuan per catty. The March egg futures contract was strong, mainly affected by pre - festival stocking and rising spot prices. However, considering that the March contract is a post - festival contract, egg prices are usually low at the beginning of the year. Also, the enthusiasm for culling has started to decrease. Although the current in - production inventory has decreased, it is still at a high level, and the market's concerns about future egg prices limited the increase in the futures price [11] 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - Supply side: In December, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected. The monthly hatch volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in December was 39.59 million (accounting for about 50% of the country), with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In January, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 42.81% (at a relatively low level in the same period over the years), medium - sized eggs was 43.38% (at a medium level in the same period over the years), and small - sized eggs was 13.81% (at a relatively high level in the same period over the years). The egg - laying rate in January changed little and was at a low level in the same period over the years, currently about 92.67%. It is expected to gradually recover as the weather gets colder in the future. The hatch volume of laying hen chicks in December changed little month - on - month and decreased by 13.9% year - on - year. The price of chicklings in January was at a medium level in the same period over the years, and the current weekly market price of laying hen chicks in the Chinese market was 3.22 yuan per chick, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 yuan per chick. Previously, due to weak egg prices and average peak - season demand, breeding profits were in the red, and the market's enthusiasm for culling increased, leading to an increase in the culling volume. According to Zhuochuang data, the culling volume of laying hens in major production areas nationwide in the week of January 23 was 16.27 million, a 5% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of January 23 was 490 days, an increase of 5 days from the previous week [12][13][15] - Demand side: Near the Spring Festival, egg consumption was good. As of the week of January 23, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas nationwide was 7210 tons, a 2.3% decrease from the previous week, and at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. From the perspective of catering revenue, in 2025 from January to December, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.5136 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Among them, the absolute value of catering revenue in December was 573.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [22] - Inventory: As of the week of January 23, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.07 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [22] - Cost and breeding profit: The current feed cost has changed little and is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. In January, the corn price was 2377 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal price dropped to 3184 yuan per ton. The current comprehensive feed cost is about 2619 yuan per ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.88 yuan per catty of eggs. As of January 23, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.44 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.31 yuan per catty from the previous week. On January 16, the expected breeding profit of laying hens was - 13.63 yuan per hen, a decrease of 0.51 yuan per catty from the previous week [25] - Substitutes: The vegetable price index continued to rise. On January 28, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 133.98. Vegetable prices have risen significantly recently but are at a relatively medium level in the same period over the years. This month, the pork price fluctuated with little overall change. As of January 20, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.69 yuan per kilogram. Overall, the low vegetable prices have a weak substitution demand for eggs, and the current low - level pork price also has relatively limited substitution demand for eggs [28] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Near the Spring Festival, the overall spot demand for eggs is good, and prices have risen. The profit situation is favorable, and the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased. However, after the Spring Festival, as it enters the off - season for egg consumption, although the previous inventory situation has improved, the farmers' enthusiasm for culling has weakened due to the good egg prices recently. The pace of capacity reduction may slow down compared to before, and egg prices may be under pressure after the festival. In the futures market, it is expected that the pace of capacity reduction may slow down, and far - month contracts may face pressure. It is advisable to consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the A-share market showed an upward trend with some fluctuations, and index performance varied. The stock index futures basis converged significantly, and the near-month contracts were in full premium. The market is expected to continue its upward trend after short-term volatility, supported by economic recovery [4][5][46] Summary by Relevant Catalog First Part: Preface Summary - **Market Review**: In January, the A-share market trended upward with fluctuations, and the performance of different indexes varied. The stock index futures basis converged significantly, especially for IC near-month contracts and IM current contracts, which showed continuous premiums. Trading volume and open interest increased significantly, indicating market optimism [4] - **Market Outlook**: Despite market fluctuations, the policy is clearly oriented towards stability and improvement. Economic data boosts confidence, and listed companies' performance forecasts are positive. The market has strong support, so the stock index is expected to continue to rise after short-term volatility [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral trading: expect an upward trend; Arbitrage: long IM/IC2609 contracts + short ETFs; Options: bull spread strategy [6] Second Part: January Market Review - **Stock Market - Upward with Fluctuations and Differentiated Rhythms**: In January, the A-share market trended upward with fluctuations, and the performance of different indexes varied. By January 29, the monthly increase of the CSI 300 index was 2.67%, the SSE 50 index rose 2.63%, the CSI 500 index rose 14.1%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 9.7%. Gold, non-ferrous metals, and oil and gas sectors led the gains, while banks, transportation, and agricultural products were the three declining sectors. Small-cap stocks were relatively more active [10][12] - **Stock Index Futures - Basis Convergence and Full Premium in Near-Month Contracts**: In January, the basis of stock index futures converged significantly compared to the previous month. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased significantly, especially for IC. The basis convergence significantly reduced the cost of short rollover for stock index futures. The net short position ratio of major seats increased [15][19][26] Third Part: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - **Data Boost Confidence**: In 2025, China's GDP exceeded 140 trillion yuan for the first time, with a 5.0% year-on-year increase. The PMI data in December returned above 50, indicating economic recovery. The CPI reached its highest level since March 2023, and the PPI showed improvement. China has emerged from the shadow of deflation, and the economic fundamentals are improving [30][31][36] - **Stable Policy Guidance**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining stability in the capital market in 2026. Since January, the market has cooled down, and the stability expectation has increased, laying a foundation for the annual market [37] - **Good Market Acceptance**: In January, ETF funds showed significant trading volume. Although there were large net redemptions, the overall stock index did not decline significantly, indicating strong market support [38][39][42] - **Positive Annual Report Forecasts**: As of January 29, 2026, 1,203 out of 2,106 listed companies that had released 2025 performance forecasts showed positive changes, accounting for 57%. The overall performance of listed companies is improving, which is a positive factor for the market [43][45] - **Future Strategies**: The stock index is expected to continue its upward trend after short-term volatility, supported by economic recovery [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, supported by fundamentals. The new - year market rumors of a production cut have some support for the cotton price, but short - term demand may have limited boost to the market due to the approaching Spring Festival [5][6]. - It is recommended to build long positions on dips in the unilateral trading of cotton, and to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [7][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, cotton futures prices were mainly volatile and slightly stronger. The short - term supply was relatively loose as new cotton processing was almost finished, and the rumor of a production cut in the new year supported the cotton price. The downstream orders were average, and the approaching Spring Festival led to limited short - term demand boost. The fundamentals of US cotton changed little, and it was expected to remain range - bound [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In terms of fundamentals, the supply in the current year is expected to remain loose, but there are rumors of a production cut in the new year. The expected reduction of Xinjiang's cotton planting area by 2660000 mu (7%) in 2026 may support the market. The market had some restocking before, but due to the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand boost was expected to be limited [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The cotton fundamentals are still strong, and there is upward space in the long - run. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7][11]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the first - part market review, in January, cotton futures prices were volatile and slightly stronger. The short - term supply was relatively loose, and the new - year production cut rumor supported the price. The downstream demand was average, and the Spring Festival limited short - term demand. US cotton fundamentals changed little and were expected to be range - bound [13]. 3.2.2 International Market - In the 25/26 cotton season, the global cotton production was adjusted down by 80000 tons to 26 million tons compared to the previous month, with an increase in China (220000 tons) and decreases in India (110000 tons) and the US (80000 tons). The demand was adjusted up, and the ending inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to the USDA planting plan in February [14]. 3.2.3 United States - The production of US cotton in the 25/26 season was adjusted slightly. The new - year cotton - grain ratio is not advantageous, and the planting area is likely to be reduced. As of January 15, the cumulative signing volume of US cotton was 1.6669 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.91%, and the cumulative shipment volume was 755300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98%. China's cumulative signing volume was 82400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 46.72%, and the cumulative shipment was 32900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.13%. As of January 23, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US cotton was 2.9374 million tons, accounting for 96.9% of the annual estimated production, with a slower progress year - on - year [16][17]. 3.2.4 Other Countries - India: The CAI's report shows that as of December 31, 2025, the production in the 2025/26 season was adjusted up by 130000 tons, domestic demand by 170000 tons, and exports down by 50000 tons, leading to an increase in ending inventory by 10000 tons compared to the previous month. As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative market volume of Indian cotton was 2.64 million tons, with a market progress of 49%, a year - on - year increase of 16%. - Brazil: As of January 10, the cotton planting progress in the 2025/26 season was 31.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 percentage points, but slower than the same period last year and the three - year average, mainly due to the stagnant planting in Bahia [18][22]. 3.2.5 Domestic Market - Supply: As of mid - January, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.86 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years. As of January 22, the cumulative picked lint cotton was 7.407 million tons, the cumulative sold lint cotton was 4.631 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase. In December 2025, the imported cotton was 177300 tons. The current internal - external price difference is around 2900 yuan/ton, and imported cotton has an advantage. - Demand: It is currently the off - season, and the approaching Spring Festival limits short - term demand. As of mid - January, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 931400 tons, the yarn inventory was 26.35 days, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.112 days. In December, domestic demand was fair, while external demand was average [24][25][26]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.3.1 Market Outlook - Global: The cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be around 25 - 26 million tons, and in the 26/27 season, it is likely to be around 25.5 - 26.5 million tons. The demand is expected to change little. Attention should be paid to the USDA annual meeting's planting plan in February. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, the cotton supply is expected to be sufficient in the short - term, but there may be low - inventory trading factors in June - August. The new - year planting area is rumored to decrease, and the production in the 26/27 season may decline. The demand is expected to be neutral to slightly positive, with domestic demand likely to remain stable and exports possibly improving due to the easing of Sino - US relations [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The valuation of polyester products has increased compared to 2025, but the current production capacity base is still large. In 2026, the growth rate of PTA downstream polyester production capacity will slow down, and the profits of the polyester industry chain are mainly distributed upstream. The market is sensitive to the supply changes of ethylene glycol at low prices, and the cost of oil can support the upward trend of the polyester sector in the short term. Without geopolitical catalysts, the upward space of the aromatic hydrocarbon sector is limited. The demand side has limited driving effect on the price of the polyester sector before the Spring Festival [4][68]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fundamental Situation 3.1.1 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Sector Strengthens, PX and TA Increase Positions and Rise in the Second Half of the Month - In late January, PX and TA futures increased positions and rose, and the valuation rebounded after a period of shock adjustment. The core factor for the new high of polyester raw materials in the off - season is that the investment cycle of TA has ended, and the market begins to trade the logic that the period of loose supply is coming to an end. In 2025, new PTA production capacity totaled 8.7 million tons, and the PTA production capacity in mainland China has been adjusted to 92.09 million tons. PTA will have a production vacuum period in 2026. There has been no new PX production capacity from 2023 - 2025, and there will be little new PX production capacity in 2026, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The growth rate of downstream polyester production capacity continues to slow down, with an expected new production capacity of 3.76 million tons in 2026 and a production capacity growth rate of 4.17% [3][9]. - The crude oil market has entered a stage of game between geopolitical risks and supply - demand fundamentals. OPEC+ maintains its production policy, and the political situation in Venezuela has changed. The market is more concerned about the potential supply risk interruptions of major oil - producing countries such as Russia and Iran. PX was under pressure in the first half of the month, and the spot market and paper - cargo structure performed poorly. The PX 3 - 5 month spread weakened, and the basis of TA also remained weak [14][15]. - In January, the economic benefits of PX plants were good, with PXN maintaining above $340/ton and the PX - MX spread between $160 - 180/ton. High benefits drove the return of supply, and PX plants at home and abroad increased their loads. The average monthly operating rate of PX in January was 90.9%, a month - on - month increase of 2.7% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of January 29, the operating rate of Asian PX was 81.6%, also at a high level over the years [21]. - Some PTA plants had equipment start - up and shutdown operations. The average monthly operating rate of PTA in January was 77.39%, a month - on - month increase of 3.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.33%. The TA processing margin rebounded to a relatively high level, and is currently around 450 yuan/ton [22]. 3.1.2 Ethylene Glycol Rebounds from a Low Level, Sensitive to Supply Changes at Low Prices - As of the 26th, the inventory of MEG in some main ports in East China was about 858,000 tons, and ethylene glycol had a significant inventory build - up in January. The market is sensitive to the supply changes of ethylene glycol at low prices. The lower boundary of ethylene glycol is around 3,700 yuan based on the marginal cost of coal - based plants. A 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant of Satellite Petrochemical plans to stop production and switch to PE production in mid - February. The planned ethylene glycol plants in 2026, such as Zhongsha Gulei and Huajin Aramco, are all scheduled to be put into operation in the second half of the year [35]. - The average monthly total load of ethylene glycol in January was 73.99%, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 2.31%. The average monthly load of synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol was 79.12%, a month - on - month increase of 4.96% and a year - on - year increase of 6.88%. Some overseas ethylene glycol plants had maintenance or shutdown operations. The import volume of ethylene glycol will decline to around 600,000 tons in March, and the inventory build - up expectation still exists, with insufficient upward driving force in the spot market [36]. 3.1.3 As the Spring Festival Approaches, More Polyester Plants Undergo Maintenance and Shutdown, and the Operating Rate of Terminals in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Decreases - As the Spring Festival approaches, the polyester load decreases, and most polyester plants have announced Spring Festival maintenance plans. The export orders of terminal textiles and clothing are average, and the inventory of grey cloth before the Spring Festival is high. The market is optimistic about the traditional peak season after the festival. The demand for polyester staple fiber from downstream draw - texturing and weaving enterprises decreases, and the inventory of staple fiber decreases rapidly. The inventory of filament production enterprises is controllable, and the market supply pressure is relatively small. After the maintenance of polyester bottle chips, the efficiency has improved significantly, and the inventory is also decreasing [49]. - In the process of the rise of polyester raw materials, the processing margin of bottle chips has expanded, the processing margin of staple fiber is basically maintained between 900 - 1,000 yuan/ton, and the processing margin of filament has changed little [49]. 3.1.4 Impact of Naphtha Consumption Tax on the Chemical Supply - Side - In 2026, there are news that the consumption tax on naphtha will be fully levied in the circulation link, changing from "direct supply at fixed points and direct exemption" to "levy first and then refund". The consumption tax needs to be prepaid by petrochemical plants in the procurement link, with a tax amount of 2,105 yuan per ton, and the subsequent tax - refund process may take several months. This will squeeze the production cost and profit space of petrochemical plants and increase the cost of ethylene, aromatic hydrocarbons and their derivatives [64]. - This policy aims to eliminate small and medium - sized production capacities with old equipment, backward technology and fragile capital chains, and guide the industry towards large - scale integrated refining and chemical projects. In the long run, the industry concentration will increase, and the industrial pattern will evolve towards large - scale, intensive and high - end directions [66]. 3.2 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Outlook - The valuation of the polyester sector has increased compared to 2025, but the production capacity base is still large. The growth rate of PTA downstream polyester production capacity will slow down in 2026, and the profits of the polyester industry chain are mainly distributed upstream. The market is sensitive to the supply changes of ethylene glycol at low prices, and the cost of oil can support the upward trend of the polyester sector in the short term. Without geopolitical catalysts, the upward space of the aromatic hydrocarbon sector is limited. The demand side has limited driving effect on the price of the polyester sector before the Spring Festival [4][68]. 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Go long on PX and TA at low prices after the bullish sentiment cools down and corrects. Without the cooperation of cost - side crude oil driving, the upward driving force is not strong. Ethylene glycol maintains a wide - range shock, and pay attention to the switch between the market's trading of supply - surplus inventory build - up expectation and the rebound sentiment of the chemical sector [6][68]. - Arbitrage: Go long on PX and TA and short ethylene glycol. Pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity of ethylene glycol and shrink the TA processing margin at high prices [6][68]. - Options: Wait and see [6][68].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report does not mention the investment rating of the industry [1] - The core view of the report is that the international soybean market is generally in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price pressure will gradually emerge in the follow - up; the domestic soybean meal may face supply tightening and price pressure, and the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal market has many uncertainties in supply [3][4][55] Group 2: Market Review - The US soybean showed a generally strong trend this month. Affected by the bearish reports at the beginning, the market faced downward pressure, but then rose due to better exports and demand [3] - The domestic soybean meal market first declined and then rose. After a large decline, the cost increase and supply uncertainty supported the price [3] - The domestic rapeseed meal market faced some pressure. Although the macro situation improved, there were still many uncertainties and the supply improved [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The recent rise of the US soybean market was affected by short - term positive factors. Excluding the possibility of a large - scale reduction in Argentina's soybean production, the overall supply - demand situation of the international soybean market is loose, and the pressure may be gradually reflected [4] - The recent strong trend of the domestic soybean meal market was affected by the cost and the expected tight supply - demand situation. However, the market has fully reacted to the decrease in soybean arrivals and the decline in oil mill operating rates, and the subsequent upward momentum may be limited [4] - The main uncertainty of the domestic rapeseed meal market lies in the macro - aspect. The supply is still tight due to the lack of clear information on new rapeseed imports. In the short - term, as the quantity of rapeseed and rapeseed meal increases, the pressure will be more obvious [4] Group 4: Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral operation: It is recommended to gradually short soybean meal and rapeseed meal according to the macro and fundamental pressure, and operate with caution [5][58] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread [5][58] - Options: Seagull put options [5][58] Group 5: International Soybean Fundamentals - Supply - The US soybean production was slightly revised up. The planted area increased from 81.1 million acres to 81.2 million acres, and the production reached 4.262 billion bushels, an increase of 0.09 billion bushels from the previous month. As of December 1, 2025, the carry - over stock was 3.290076 billion bushels, at a historically high level [9] - In the South American market, Brazil's soybean harvest has begun. As of the week of January 24, the harvest progress was 6.6%. Conab estimated the production at 176.124 million tons, an increase of about 4.7 million tons over the previous year; USDA estimated it at 178 million tons, an increase of about 6.5 million tons. The new - crop selling progress is slow, and the subsequent pressure is obvious [11] - In Argentina, the supply of old and new crops is tight. The old - crop inventory is expected to remain low, and the price is rising. The new - crop planting area has decreased, and the production is expected to decrease by about 2.6 million tons. As of the week of January 23, the sowing progress was 96.2%, but the crop quality is average due to less rainfall [14] Group 6: International Soybean Fundamentals - Demand - The US soybean demand is good. The average new export sales volume in the past few weeks was about 1.8 million tons, mainly to China. However, due to the price advantage of Brazilian soybeans, the subsequent export competitiveness may be limited. The December 2025 crushing volume was about 225 million bushels, at a high level. The implementation of the biodiesel policy may support the crushing volume [17] - Brazil's December 2025 soybean crushing volume is expected to decline slightly but remain high. The estimated January 2026 export volume is about 3.79 million tons. The price advantage of Brazilian soybeans supports exports, but the selling enthusiasm is not high [19] - Argentina's soybean demand is declining. The December 2025 export volume was about 870,000 tons, and the annual export volume is expected to be about 13 million tons. The December 2025 crushing volume may drop to about 3.1 million tons, and the crushing profit has declined significantly [22] Group 7: International Soybean Fundamentals - Comprehensive Analysis - In the short - term, the international soybean market does not show obvious supply - demand pressure due to macro - factors such as the weak US dollar, which restricts the selling enthusiasm of exporters and improves the competitiveness of US soybean demand. The prices of soybeans in various regions are relatively firm [23][25] - In the long - term, due to the high - yield in South America and the high inventory in the US, the overall supply - demand pressure is obvious, and the price pressure will gradually be reflected [25] Group 8: Domestic Soybean Meal Fundamentals - The domestic soybean meal spot market has been strong this month, with the basis above +300. As of the week of January 23, the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6.5899 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 898,600 tons, both at high levels. The high basis reflects the expectation of future supply shortages. The January 2026 average daily trading volume is expected to be 3.809 million tons, with high forward basis trading volume. The soybean import volume in January 2026 is expected to be 7 - 8 million tons, and the crushing volume has declined. The demand is good, and the inventory is decreasing [27][31] - In the future, due to the decrease in previous ship - bookings and the decline in crushing profit, the soybean arrival volume may decrease significantly, and the oil mill operating rate may decline. The demand for soybean meal is expected to remain good, and the inventory will continue to decrease. However, the current 3 - 5 spread has fully reflected the positive factors, and the subsequent upward momentum may be limited [35] Group 9: Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Fundamentals - The domestic rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by macro - factors. After the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and the adjustment of import tariff policies, the possibility of importing Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is increasing, which has been reflected in the market. As of the week of January 23, the rapeseed inventory of domestic oil mills was 60,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was almost zero. The supply is low, and the demand is limited [38] - The overall supply - demand change in the rapeseed meal market is limited. The supply is tight, and the demand is average. The international rapeseed supply is loose, and the future import pressure is large. However, the price advantage of rapeseed meal may gradually emerge due to the strong performance of soybean meal [39][56] Group 10: Comprehensive Analysis and Outlook - International soybeans: The overall supply - demand situation is loose, but the market does not show obvious selling pressure in the short - term. In the future, the price pressure will gradually be reflected, mainly affected by the progress of Brazil's soybean harvest and the general performance of US soybean exports [55] - Domestic soybean meal: The spot market is gradually strengthening. In the future, the supply - demand situation may be strong due to the decrease in supply. However, the market has already reacted to the future supply shortage, and the long - term price pressure is obvious due to the international market pressure [55] - Domestic rapeseed meal: The supply - demand change is limited, the supply is tight, and the international supply is loose. The future import space is large, and the price is under pressure [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the ferrosilicon and ferromanganese markets are characterized by weak supply and demand, but there are expectations of marginal improvement in the future. Both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have low valuation levels, and their prices are expected to be volatile and strong in February [2][80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply side remains at a low level, and after the release of the differential electricity price document in Shaanxi, local enterprises have a demand for technological transformation, so there is still an expectation of supply contraction. The demand side sees a recent improvement in steel profits, but steel inventories are starting to accumulate seasonally. It is expected that the molten iron production in February will first decline and then rise around the Spring Festival. The cost in the main production areas has stable electricity prices, and there is still an expectation of price increases in some areas. The current valuation level of ferrosilicon is low, and its price will be mainly volatile and strong in February [2][80]. - **Ferromanganese**: The output of enterprises within the sample continues to decline at a low level, but some new production capacities were put into operation in January, and the overall supply side is mainly stable. The demand side is similar to that of ferrosilicon. The cost side shows that the manganese ore port inventory is about 1 million tons lower than the average of the same period in previous years, the spot price is firm, and the offers of overseas mines in February have all increased slightly. The valuation level of ferromanganese is low, and it may be volatile and strong in February [2][80]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In January, the futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese fluctuated narrowly, first declining and then rising. The main reason is that the implementation plan of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi was announced, which led to an increase in costs for local ferrosilicon enterprises or a demand for phased technological transformation, driving up the futures prices. However, as steel demand entered the off - season, the fundamentals did not support the increase, and the prices adjusted later. After the prices corrected to the low - valuation range, they fluctuated upward again in late January driven by the overall commodity market sentiment [7]. 3.2.2 Current Weak Supply and Demand with Expectations of Improvement - **Supply**: According to Mysteel data, the output of ferromanganese (187 enterprises) in December was 843,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 4%. It is expected that the output in January will increase slightly month - on - month. The output of ferrosilicon (136 enterprises) in December was 454,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.8%, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in January. On the week of January 29, the national operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 29.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%; the daily average output was 98,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100 tons. The national operating rate of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 36.21%, remaining flat month - on - month; the daily average output was 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 800 tons [27]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production fluctuated narrowly in January. On the week of January 29, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.2798 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1200 tons. Looking forward to February, steel profits have rebounded recently, and short - term production remains stable, but inventories are starting to accumulate seasonally. It is expected that there will be seasonal production cuts before the Spring Festival. Judging from the steel mill blast furnace maintenance plans, it is expected that the molten iron production will first decline and then rise around the Spring Festival [27]. 3.2.3 Stable Ferrosilicon Inventory and Eased Accumulation Pressure of Ferromanganese - **Alloy Factory Inventory**: On the week of January 29, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 67,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 700 tons; the inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 373,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons. Generally, the ferrosilicon inventory is relatively normal, while the ferromanganese inventory is high, but the continuous inventory accumulation situation has eased [45]. - **Downstream Inventory**: Steel profits have slightly recovered recently, and steel mills still have a phased demand for replenishing inventory at the beginning of February approaching the Spring Festival. However, due to the still low absolute value of steel profits, the replenishment intensity is expected to be limited, and steel mills will generally continue the idea of low raw material inventory [45]. 3.2.4 Support from Electricity Prices and Manganese Ore - **Electricity Prices**: In January, the electricity prices in the main production areas were mainly stable and slightly weak. After the release of the differential electricity price document in Shaanxi, there is also an expectation of price increases in Inner Mongolia. Overall, electricity prices still provide obvious support for alloy costs [54]. - **Manganese Ore**: The overall manganese ore port inventory is about 4.22 million tons, about 1 million tons lower than the average of the same period in previous years. Supported by the low inventory, the port spot prices are generally firm. In January, the price of Australian lumps in Tianjin Port remained stable, the semi - carbonate increased by 1 yuan/ton - degree, and the Gabonese lumps increased by 0.2 yuan/ton - degree. The strong operation of manganese ore provides strong support for the cost side of ferromanganese [54]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Outlook**: Similar to the market outlook, the fundamentals of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are currently characterized by weak supply and demand, but there are expectations of marginal improvement in the future, and both have low valuation levels, with prices expected to be volatile and strong in February [80]. - **Strategy Recommendations** - **Single - side**: Supply and demand are both weak, but cost support is strong, and the valuation level is low. Prices are expected to be volatile and strong [3]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. - **Options**: Sell put options on rallies [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading mainline of coking coal and coke is unclear recently, with lackluster fundamentals and frequent disturbances from funds. The weight of fundamentals has decreased, and the influence of funds and sentiment is significant. From a valuation perspective, the current valuation of coking coal is not high. It is recommended to maintain a low - buying approach, but not to be overly optimistic about the upside potential [3][113]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In January, the coking coal and coke futures showed wide - range oscillations with no obvious trend. Coking coal futures rose in the first ten - day period, declined in the middle ten - day period, and oscillated in the last ten - day period. The rise in January was mainly due to the downstream winter storage replenishment expectation. In the middle ten - day period, the resumption of high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance and sufficient domestic supply led to a lack of post - holiday expectations in the market, causing the futures price to decline first. Coke had no independent market and fluctuated following coking coal [2][9]. - In the spot market, the price of Mongolian coal was closely related to the futures, rising and falling in line with the futures. Shanxi coking coal prices were relatively lagging. They stopped falling and stabilized in the first ten - day period, and generally rose in the middle ten - day period, with mainstream coal types rising by 80 - 150 yuan/ton. However, in the last ten - day period, the coking coal in the producing areas showed signs of weakness [9]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Coal Production - In 2025, the national raw coal output of above - scale industries was 4.83 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The national coking clean coal output was 47.952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%, among which the coking clean coal output in Shanxi was 22.027 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [39]. - In January, coking coal production slowly recovered. In February, coal mines gradually went on holiday. The average holiday days of sample coal mines were 10.1 days, similar to last year. State - owned coal mines had an average of 6.2 days of holiday, while private coal mines had an average of 13.96 days. After the Spring Festival, coal mines are expected to resume normal production, with relatively balanced supply and demand [40]. 3.2.2 Coal Imports - In 2025, China imported 118.63 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 3.24 million tons, a decline of 2.7%. The imports from Mongolia, Russia, Canada, the United States, and Australia accounted for 50.6%, 27.6%, 9.1%, 2.5%, and 7.5% respectively. The combined imports from Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78.3% [51]. - In January, the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal quickly rebounded to a high level, with a significant year - on - year increase, which put great pressure on coking coal prices. During the Spring Festival, the Mongolian coal ports were closed. It is expected that the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal will remain at a high level after the Spring Festival [64]. 3.2.3 Coke Exports - In 2025, China's total coke exports were 7.941 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 377,000 tons, a decline of 4.5%. The main export destinations were Indonesia, India, Japan, Brazil, Vietnam, and Malaysia. India imposed anti - dumping duties on low - ash metallurgical coke from China and other countries. However, due to the already low base of China's coke exports to India, the marginal impact of the anti - dumping duties is limited. It is expected that coke exports in 2026 will remain basically the same [72][74][75]. 3.2.4 Coke Supply and Demand - In January, the capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises increased slightly, and the supply and demand of coke were in a tight balance. Due to the rise in coking coal prices in January and the relatively lagging coke prices, the first round of price increases had not been fully implemented, and the profits of coke enterprises generally shrank [79]. 3.2.5 Steel Production and Demand - In January, the molten iron output of steel mills increased slightly and then oscillated, remaining at a relatively low level. The profitability of steel mills was poor. In 2026, domestic steel demand is expected to increase slightly by 0.46%, and steel exports are expected to decline by about 3.8%, with the total demand for crude steel remaining basically the same [83]. 3.2.6 Winter Storage - As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter storage replenishment of coking coal is basically coming to an end. Downstream procurement has slowed down, and downstream coking and steel enterprises have a general intensity for winter storage replenishment. During the Spring Festival, coal mines are on holiday, and downstream enterprises mainly consume inventory [93]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Market Outlook: The trading mainline of coking coal and coke is unclear, with lackluster fundamentals. In February, coal mines go on holiday, spot trading becomes quiet, and prices tend to be stable. The weight of fundamentals decreases, and the influence of funds and sentiment increases. The current valuation of coking coal is not high, and attention should be paid to the switching of funds [113]. - Strategy Recommendations: - Unilateral: The market is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to maintain a low - buying approach, but not to be overly optimistic about the upside potential [4][114]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4][114]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [4][115].