Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on agricultural products (oils) dated December 1, 2025, released by the research institute of Galaxy Futures [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 3: Core Views - Short - term oils lack drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and high - selling low - buying range operations, and not to rush to buy palm oil [10] Group 4: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8288 with a gain of 44. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8558, 8588, and 8458 respectively. Basis values in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 300, 270, and 170 respectively [2] - For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 8652 with a gain of 26. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8602, 8732, and 8762 respectively. Basis values in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were - 50, 80, and 110 respectively [2] - For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 9770 with a gain of 13. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10070, 10320. Basis values in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 300, and 550 respectively [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 month - to - month spread was 202 with a decline of 2. For palm oil, it was - 46 with a gain of 6. For rapeseed oil, it was 286 with a gain of 30 [2] Cross - Variety Spreads - For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 364 with a gain of 18, the OI - Y spread was 1482 with a decline of 31, the OI - P spread was 1118 with a decline of 13, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.73 with a gain of 0.02 [2] Import Profits - The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was - 225, and the CNF price was 1048. The disk profit of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 1074, and the FOB price was 1095 [2] Weekly Commercial Inventories - In the 47th week of 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 118.0 tons (last week: 114.9 tons, last year: 105.3 tons), palm oil was 66.7 tons (last week: 65.3 tons, last year: 48.3 tons), and rapeseed oil was 38.5 tons (last week: 43.0 tons, last year: 44.1 tons) [2] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - According to foreign media reports, the devastating floods in Sumatra, Indonesia, have not had a significant impact on palm oil production. The affected areas are mostly residential areas rather than palm oil plantations [4] Domestic Market - Palm oil: As of November 21, 2025, the national commercial inventory was 66.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39 tons (2.13%). It is at a neutral level compared to historical periods. The origin quotation is stable, the import profit inversion has widened to about - 300. The basis is stable. Short - term palm oil lacks a clear driver, with limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - Soybean oil: As of November 21, 2025, the national commercial inventory was 117.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14 tons (2.73%). It is at a relatively high level compared to historical periods, but the inventory inflection point has been reached. The basis is stable. There are rumors of 1 - 3 tons of soybean oil exports. Domestic demand is average. Short - term supply is sufficient, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see and then try to go long lightly after a callback [7] - Rapeseed oil: As of November 21, 2025, the coastal inventory was 38.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.5 tons. It is at a high level compared to historical periods, but the inventory is continuously decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation is stable at around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit inversion has widened to about - 1000. The domestic basis is strong. It is expected that the coastal inventory will continue to decrease. It is recommended to go long on OI03 or 05 contracts when there is a callback [8] Group 6: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Short - term oils lack drivers, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintaining a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long and high - selling low - buying range operations, and not to rush to buy palm oil [10] Arbitrage - It is recommended to wait and see [11] Options - It is recommended to wait and see [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of the live pig market has improved, and the spot price has rebounded periodically. However, due to the relatively high inventory and large average slaughter weight, the overall supply remains sufficient, and the subsequent spot price is expected to be weak. The futures price shows a slight oscillation, and the medium - to - long - term downward pressure is obvious, with limited rebound space [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Information - Today, live pig prices across the country continued to rise. The出栏量 of large - scale enterprises decreased significantly, while the enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell pigs remained high. The number of secondary fattening entries decreased, and the average slaughter weight rebounded, with a relatively large supply of heavy - weight pigs. The slowdown in the slaughter rhythm supported the pig price to some extent. It is expected that the supply pressure will continue, and the overall pig price will still face pressure [1] Futures Price - The live pig futures price showed a slight oscillation, and the market remained stable. The near - term price will oscillate, and the medium - to - long - term downward pressure is obvious, with limited rebound space [3] Transaction Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of new cotton is increasing significantly this year, but the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The demand side is in a relatively off - season after the peak season, and orders have been average recently. However, previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will likely fluctuate within a limited range [6]. - The overall atmosphere in the cotton yarn industry is weakening, with the price of pure - cotton yarn remaining stable, and some large manufacturers offering price promotions. The overall startup rate has not changed much, but inventory has increased. If there is no significant improvement in new orders, the yarn price may decline further. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream terminal demand [10]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Market Information - **Futures Market**: For CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts of cotton, the closing prices were 13765, 13725, and 13860 respectively, with price increases of 40, 40, and 70. The trading volumes were 200,316, 118,427, and 4,067 hands respectively, showing decreases of 66,349, 3,732, and 1,026 hands. The open - interest positions were 546,943, 370,519, and 13,609, with increases of 1,675, 22,949, and 1,112 respectively. For CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts of cotton yarn, the closing prices were 20045, 20040, and 20095 respectively, with price changes of - 45, 60, and - 30. The trading volumes were 4,978, 60, and 2 hands respectively, showing decreases of 8,693, increases of 55, and decreases of 8. The open - interest positions were 6543, 46, and 7, with changes of - 1364, 6, and 0 respectively [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B was 14936 yuan/ton, up 45; Cot A was 74.95 cents/pound; the arrival price of (FC Index):M was 73.91; the price of polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton, up 70; the price of viscose staple fiber was 12800 yuan/ton, down 50. For cotton yarn, CY IndexC32S was 20770 yuan/ton, up 30; FCY IndexC33S was 20988 yuan/ton, down 11; the price of Indian S - 6 was 55800; the price of pure polyester yarn T32S was 11050 yuan/ton, up 100; the price of viscose yarn R30S was 17300 yuan/ton, up 50 [2]. - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 40 (unchanged), the 5 - 9 spread was - 135 (down 30), and the 9 - 1 spread was 95 (up 30). In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 5 (down 105), the 5 - 9 spread was - 55 (up 90), and the 9 - 1 spread was 50 (up 15). In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was 6280 (down 85), CY05 - CF05 was 6315 (up 20), and CY09 - CF09 was 6235 (down 100). The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 1899 (up 14), the sliding - duty internal - external cotton spread was 933 (up 12), and the internal - external yarn spread was - 218 (up 41) [2]. 2. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 1.7585 million tons, accounting for 57.3% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 12% slower than the same period last year. The inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton was 1.7234 million tons, with an inspection progress of 57.63%, a 12% year - on - year decrease; the inspection volume of Pima cotton was 35,100 tons, with an inspection progress of 42.4%, a 34% year - on - year decrease. The weekly deliverable ratio was 85.7%, the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and the quarterly deliverable ratio increased month - on - month. The U.S. cotton harvest is in the late stage, and the listing inspection peak season has seen a narrowing of the year - on - year lag in the listing progress, with the overall inspection of Pima cotton being much slower. The quarterly deliverable ratio continues to rise. In the week of October 16, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton was 39,800 tons, a 11% weekly increase and a 5% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks; the weekly signing volume of 2026/27 U.S. upland cotton was 6,100 tons; the weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 U.S. upland cotton was 36,200 tons, a 15% weekly increase and a 1% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks [4]. - **Trading Logic**: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be some selling - hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, after the peak season, the market enters a relative off - season. Overall, the large - scale listing of new cotton on the supply side and a significant increase in production this year but a possible smaller - than - expected increase; on the demand side, recent orders have been average, but previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will likely fluctuate within a limited range [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, it is expected that the future trend of U.S. cotton will likely be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate. For arbitrage and options, the recommendation is to wait and see [8][9][10]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Zhengzhou cotton continues to fluctuate strongly. Although there is some resilience in recent demand, the overall atmosphere is weakening. The price of pure - cotton yarn remains stable, and some large manufacturers have carried out price promotions. The overall startup rate has not changed much, but inventory has increased. The rise in Zhengzhou cotton has gradually weakened the cash flow of spinning enterprises, and combined with year - end bank repayment, supplier settlement, and worker wage payment, enterprises are under great pressure. If there is no significant improvement in new orders, the yarn price may decline further. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream terminal demand. The rigid demand for all - cotton clothing grey fabric is weak, and both the volume and price are expected to decline further. The grey fabric market has low popularity and insufficient confidence, mainly due to the decline in demand leading to insufficient factory orders. The price center has shifted downwards, and actual orders can be negotiated. The situation of dyeing factories varies, with better - performing ones having orders that can last about half a month, and those with less business being able to deliver goods in 7 days [10]. 3. Options - **Option Data**: On November 24, 2025, for the CF601C13400.CZC option contract, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 183.00, with a price increase of 71.0%, an implied volatility (IV) of 6.7%, a Delta of 0.7924, a Gamma of 0.0012, a Vega of 8.9763, a Theta of - 2.5396, a theoretical leverage of 74.2350, and an actual leverage of 58.8238. For the CF601P13000.CZC option contract, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 7.00, with a price decrease of 75.9%, an IV of 11.4%, a Delta of - 0.0470, a Gamma of 0.0000, a Vega of 3.0820, a Theta of - 1.2967, a theoretical leverage of 1,940.7143, and an actual leverage of 91.2136. For the CF601P12400.CZC option contract, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 2.00, with a price decrease of 83.3%, an IV of 17.3%, a Delta of - 0.0106, a Gamma of 0.0001, a Vega of 0.8840, a Theta of - 0.5394, a theoretical leverage of 6,792.5000, and an actual leverage of 72.0005. The 10 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton was 6.4492, slightly higher than the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Option Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7339, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. The recommendation for options is to wait and see [13][14]. 4. Related Attachments - The text provides multiple figures, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [16][19][23][24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the apple market are strong due to a decline in apple production this year, a poor high - quality fruit rate, increased storage difficulty, and expected low cold - storage inventory data. However, considering the high price of the January contract and the large risk approaching delivery, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, and also to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and option trading [5][6][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 106.38, up 0.02 from the previous trading day. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.30, up 0.08 from the previous trading day. Among futures prices, AP01 was 9526, up 76 from the previous close; AP05 was 9633, up 54; AP10 was 8438, up 27 [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - **Transaction Logic**: This year's apple production decreased, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, and storage was more difficult. As of November 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 766.75 million tons, a decrease of 6.41 million tons from the previous week and 79.5 million tons from the same period last year. The peak cold - storage inventory this year was at a low level in the same period over the years, and the apple quality was relatively poor, so the effective inventory was expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals were strong [5] - **Transaction Strategy**: For single - side trading, due to the strong apple fundamentals but the high price of the January contract and high delivery - approaching risks, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. For arbitrage and option trading, it is also recommended to stay on the sidelines [6][8] - **Market Data**: As of November 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 766.75 million tons, a decrease of 6.41 million tons from the previous week and 79.5 million tons from the same period last year, with a decline of 9.4%. In October 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 11.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.18%. In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 8.04 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04% [7] - **Spot Price**: In the Shandong production area, the late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in cold storage mainly traded small and medium - sized fruits and a small amount of general - quality goods, with few large - sized fruit transactions. The purchase volume of small fruits in cold storage was less than that of last week. In the Qixia area, the mainstream price of bagged Fuji 65 - 70 was 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per catty. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price was stable, and cold - storage trading was not active. In the Luochuan area, the mainstream price of cold - storage bagged Fuji 70 and above was 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and high - quality goods were 4.5 - 5.0 yuan per catty [7] Third Part: Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are presented, including the price charts of Qixia first - and second - grade bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial bagged 70 apples, AP contract main - force basis, spreads between different AP contracts, the combined apple arrival volume at Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][13][16][18][25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market is digesting the news of freight rate increase announcements for the second half of December, which has slightly boosted the EC futures market. There are still differences in the market's expectations for the implementation of the announced rate increases. The trading strategy suggests considering buying the EC2602 contract on dips and continuing to hold the 2 - 4 calendar spread [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - **Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation** - The market digested the news of rate increases in the second half of December, driving the EC futures slightly up. On December 1st, EC2512 closed at 1636.7 points, up 0.34% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS Europe Line index was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% month - on - month, slightly lower than expected [5]. - The long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, and with the arrival of the traditional peak season in December, shipping company quotes are gradually released, but there are differences in the market's expectations for implementation. The demand from December to January is expected to improve, and the shipping capacity from Shanghai to Northern Europe in December slightly increased due to the delay of some ships arriving at the port at the end of November. The trading logic of the 12 and 02 contracts may diverge. The 12 contract follows the price in the second half of December, while the 02 contract is more about the expected rate increase in January. The probability of route resumption may increase after the Spring Festival [5][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider buying the EC2602 contract on dips and continue to hold the 2 - 4 calendar spread [7][8]. - **Industry News** - Newcastle Port in Australia will resume operations on December 1st after being blocked by climate activists. Shipping of general cargo and alumina to the Tomago aluminum smelter was interrupted [9]. - Maersk announced improvements to its Maersk Go product, and a revised policy on late booking modifications will take effect on December 4th [9]. - US and Ukrainian negotiators had productive discussions on the peace agreement framework, but no final breakthrough has been made [9]. 3.2 Relevant Attachments The report includes multiple figures showing various container shipping indices and container freight rates, such as SCFIS Europe Line and US West Line indices, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates from Shanghai to different regions [11][15][19].

Z0018389 研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn 投资咨询证号： | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/12/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 8048 | -40 | -0.50% | 18,152 | -34.22% | 24,151 | 7.38% | | PK510 | 8238 | -14 | -0.17% | 65 | 1.56% | 675 | -1.75% | | PK601 | 8152 | -46 | -0.56% | 83,345 | -31.47% | 123,473 | -4.34% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | ...

玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 玉米淀粉日报 研究所 农产品研发报告 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2236 | -8 | -0.36% | 604,878 | 9.89% | 950,183 | -0.98% | | C2605 | | 2273 | -3 | -0.13% | 92,557 | 6.00% | 365,288 | -2.00% | | C2509 | | 2288 | -1 | -0.04% | 6,189 | -35.94% | 22,346 | -2.75% | | CS2601 | | 2542 | -24 | -0.94% | 127,224 | 13.92% | 230,178 | -3.34% | | CS2605 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term, the US loose monetary policy is expected to drive up inflation, and the copper - gold ratio will support prices. The supply side of copper concentrates faces more disturbances, and the smelting industry is expected to reduce internal competition. Consumption is in a stage of transformation between old and new drivers. Although traditional consumption with low added - value is weakening, the growth of energy - storage batteries, new - energy vehicles, and future AI will offset the negative impact of the decline in traditional consumption to some extent, so the long - term upward trend of copper remains unchanged. In the short term, after the previous upward trend, there is a lack of new stimuli, and the downstream needs time to accept the price, so the market will mainly consolidate at a high level [5]. - The supply of copper mines is tightening, and the increase in refined copper production is expected to be 950,000 tons or a year - on - year increase of 3.53%, lower than 4.3% in 2024. The consumption growth rate is expected to decline to 3%, lower than 3.76% last year. The market is expected to fluctuate between 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and the long - term upward trend continues, so a low - buying strategy is recommended [5][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Copper Market Review a. Market Review - In November 2025, copper prices consolidated at a high level, with the lowest reaching 84,900 yuan/ton for SHFE copper on November 5 and the highest reaching 87,920 yuan/ton on November 14. The market focused on the December interest - rate cut expectation and the AI bubble risk. The Fed's hawkish remarks in the middle of the month lowered the interest - rate cut expectation to 40%, weakening market sentiment. Later, the release of NVIDIA's earnings report and the Fed's dovish turn increased the probability of a December interest - rate cut to over 80%, supporting prices [4][9]. - Fundamentally, Freeport expects the Grasberg output to decline to 1 billion pounds in 2026, and the spot processing fee is reported at over - 40 dollars/ton. The Cl spread remained at 3% - 5% this month. The reasons for the decrease in US copper imports may be the decline in Chilean copper production, some goods being held by traders, and the narrowing of cross - market arbitrage space. The supply tension in the LME market has been alleviated, and domestic downstream buyers mostly priced at below 86,000 yuan/ton [10]. b. Market Outlook - In terms of supply, the increase in copper mine supply is adjusted down to - 30,000 tons, and the overall supply tension of copper mines has intensified. Overseas smelters are increasing production cuts, and domestic smelters are also affected by problems such as the decline in anode plate supply, regular maintenance, and insufficient raw material supply. It is expected that the refined copper production will increase by 950,000 tons or a year - on - year increase of 3.53%, lower than 4.3% in 2024. The negotiation of TC and long - term premium is difficult, and attention should be paid to the signing of long - term import contracts [11]. - In terms of price, macroscopically, whether there is an interest - rate cut in December or not, the US loose - money policy has not ended, which will have a positive feedback on the market. Fundamentally, the supply tension persists, and the downstream's acceptance of high prices is insufficient, but the overall market remains resilient. It is expected to fluctuate between 85,000 - 89,000 yuan/ton, and the long - term upward trend continues, so a low - buying strategy is recommended [11]. Second Part: Repeated Expectations of Fed Interest - Rate Cut - In November 2025, the release of US non - farm payroll data in September lowered the market's expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December to below 40%. Later, Williams' remarks increased the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut to 69.4%. The market seems more willing to believe that the Fed will cut interest rates in December. The NAR expects that the sales of existing and new residential properties in the US will increase in 2026 due to lower expected loan interest rates, continuous employment growth, and market stability [21]. - In October 2025, China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. The personal income tax increased year - on - year, but the per - capita disposable income growth rate was lower than last year, and the consumption growth momentum was insufficient [22][25]. Third Part: Increased Disturbances in Copper Mines, and the Supply Tension is Difficult to Alleviate a. Sharp Decline in the Increase of Copper Concentrate Supply - In September 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 1.914 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1,000 tons. From January to September, the global copper concentrate production was 17.232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons. Chile's copper production in September was 456,663 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. Peru's copper production in September was 240,995 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [35]. - Many mining companies have lowered their production plans. It is expected that the global copper concentrate increase in 2025 will drop to - 30,000 tons, far lower than 665,500 tons in 2024. The supply tension of copper mines is difficult to alleviate, and the processing fee is likely to be less than 0 dollars/ton. China's copper concentrate imports in October 2025 increased by 5.94% year - on - year [36][37]. b. Decline in the Start - up of Recycling and Processing Enterprises, and the Tension in Scrap Copper Supply is Alleviated Temporarily - In October 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and scraps reached 197,000 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The imports from the US through Japan and Thailand increased significantly, while the imports from the EU decreased. The policy of standardizing investment promotion may affect the start - up of recycled copper rod enterprises. In October 2025, China's imports of anode copper decreased year - on - year, while the imports of scrap copper ingots increased [47][48][50]. c. Accelerated Transmission of Insufficient Raw Material Supply to the Smelting End - In 2025, the supply of copper mines is tight. It is expected that the global refined copper production will increase by 950,000 tons or a year - on - year increase of 3.53%, lower than 4.3% in 2024. Overseas smelters are increasing production cuts, and domestic smelter production has also declined. The supply of imported refined copper may slow down [53][54][56]. Fourth Part: Consumption Analysis a. Obvious Decline in Traditional Consumption Growth - In the real - estate market, from January to October 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing and the completion area decreased year - on - year. The real - estate market is in an adjustment and bottom - building stage, and the decline in real - estate completion will continue to drag down electrolytic copper consumption. It is estimated that the copper consumption in the construction industry will decrease by 123,700 tons to 1.1137 million tons [64][65]. - In the power grid and power - source projects, from January to October 2025, the investment in power grids and power - source projects increased year - on - year, but at a lower rate than last year. High copper prices inhibited the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises, and the wire - and - cable start - up rate decreased. In October 2025, the export of wire and cable decreased month - on - month [71]. - In the household - appliance industry, from January to October 2025, the cumulative sales of air conditioners increased year - on - year, but in October, the sales decreased year - on - year. The air - conditioner production plan for December 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year. It is expected that the annual consumption growth rate of air conditioners will decline to 2%, and the copper consumption will decrease slightly [76][77]. b. Resilience in Automobile Consumption - In China, from January to October 2025, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased year - on - year. The new - energy vehicle production and sales accounted for 46.7% of the total. The resumption of the new - energy vehicle purchase tax in 2026 will drive the sales in 2025 [85][86]. - In Europe and the US, from January to October 2025, the sales of new - energy vehicles increased year - on - year. BNEF expects that the sales of new - energy passenger vehicles will reach 21.9 million this year, with China accounting for nearly two - thirds. The global new - energy vehicle copper consumption is expected to increase to 1.4011 million tons [93][95]. c. Unexpected Growth in Wind and Solar Power Generation - In terms of photovoltaic installation, from January to October 2025, China's new photovoltaic installation increased by 39.47% year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association raised the new installation forecast for this year. The IEA expects that the global new photovoltaic installation will reach 630GW in 2025 [105][106]. - In terms of wind - power installation, from January to October 2025, China's new wind - power installation increased by 52.86% year - on - year. The CWEA predicts that China's new wind - power installation will reach 105 - 115GW in 2025. The GWEC expects that the global new wind - power installation will increase to 138GW in 2025. The copper consumption of wind and solar power is expected to increase by 208,500 tons in 2025 [119][120]. d. Explosive Growth in Lithium - Ion Copper Foil - In 2024, the global copper - foil production capacity was 2.544 million tons, with the lithium - ion copper - foil production capacity growing by 37.55% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, China's lithium - ion copper - foil production increased by 38% year - on - year. It is estimated that the production will reach 853,800 tons this year, driving domestic consumption by 1.38%. The GGII expects that China's energy - storage shipments will reach 580GW in 2025, with a copper consumption of about 300,000 tons [126]. e. Consumption Summary - It is expected that the global consumption growth rate will decline to 3% in 2025, lower than 3.76% last year, and China's consumption growth rate will decline from 4.5% to 3.5%. Overseas demand remains stable, while domestic demand weakens marginally in the second half of the year. New - energy vehicles, energy - storage batteries, etc. are the key factors driving consumption, and downstream procurement is concentrated below 86,000 yuan/ton [130]. Fifth Part: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In terms of supply, it is expected that the copper - mine growth in 2025 will be - 30,000 tons, and the refined - copper production will increase by 950,000 tons. In terms of consumption, the consumption growth rate is expected to decline to 3.4% in 2025. The supply gap of copper concentrates is expected to widen to 790,000 tons in 2025, and the refined - copper surplus is expected to be 380,000 tons [135]. - The report also provides the supply - demand balance sheets of China's refined copper and global copper, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of copper in different years [137][138].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward driving force of propylene is weak, but the downward range is also limited. In the absence of strong cost - driven or significant improvement in the demand side, intensified industry competition may put greater operating pressure on some high - cost process plants. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policy changes, the actual impact of winter energy demand on propane and coal prices, and unexpected changes in downstream demand [5][80]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Propylene Fundamental Situation 1.1 November Propylene Price Continued to Decline, Supply Maintained a Loose Pattern - In November, the price of the main propylene futures contract 2603 fell below 6,000 yuan, reaching a monthly low of 5,758 yuan/ton on November 24. Affected by weak cost, supply pressure, and sluggish demand, the propylene price was under continuous pressure, and the price center shifted downward [4][10]. - In October, propylene supply reached a new high. Domestic production was 5.602 million tons, an increase of 286,000 tons from September and 601,400 tons year - on - year. In November, multiple propylene plants restarted, while some plants began maintenance in mid - to - late November, expected to last until December or Q1 2026. The average monthly load increased by 0.22% to 78.67% compared to October, and the supply pressure remained, with the fundamentals expected to maintain a loose pattern [11]. - At the cost end, OPEC's production increase and suspension policies, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace framework, and sufficient propane supply led to an expected decline in oil prices and a drop in propane import prices. Coal prices were expected to remain stable due to winter demand [14][15][16]. 1.2 Supply Increase, Propylene Spot Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Inventory Remained High - After the commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical and Yulong in September and Guangxi Petrochemical in October, the domestic propylene production capacity reached 77.96 million tons. Multiple plants were scheduled for maintenance or restart, and the overall domestic propylene load was expected to remain high above 78%. As of November 28, the domestic propylene inventory in factories was 48,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 26,200 tons [37]. 1.3 In October, Propylene Imports Declined under High Load - With the overall increase in domestic propylene load and increased supply pressure, propylene imports decreased. In October, imports were 133,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 75,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 70,200 tons. Exports were 1,900 tons. Weak downstream demand also contributed to the decline in imports [39]. 1.4 Poor Downstream Demand, Poor Overall Industry Profit Performance - In November, the prices of propylene downstream derivatives generally declined, with significant drops in polypropylene and acrylic acid prices. Downstream factories were more cautious in purchasing raw materials, and the industry's profitability remained poor. The demand for polypropylene was expected to weaken in December, while the price of propylene oxide rebounded [47]. Third Part: Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations 3.1 Market Outlook - OPEC+ decided to maintain the existing oil production quota and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The expectation of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine increased supply concerns, and the rebound space for oil prices was limited. The cooling in some regions was expected to support propane prices, but the demand side recovery outlook remained pessimistic, with the low - level operation of polypropylene and poor profitability of most downstream derivatives difficult to improve in the short term [5][79]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Due to high inventory and high domestic propylene load, the upside space of propylene prices is limited. Short on rallies [7][81]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7][81]. - Options: Sell call options [7][81].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 1 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，成本存在支撑 13 | | --- | | 双焦：震荡运行 可逢低轻仓试多远月合约 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：减产趋势下价格底部震荡 15 | | 金银：12 月降息再成基准情景 金银维持偏强走势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：铂钯价格上周五小幅回调，今晨注意跳空高开风险 18 | | 铜：美铜高升水，非美地区供应担忧加剧 18 | | 氧化铝：减产难落地 氧化铝持续承压 19 | | 电解铝：宏微观共振 铝价偏强运行 20 | | 铸造铝合金：铝合金随铝价偏强运行 21 | | 锌：宽幅震荡 22 | | 铅：关注冶炼成本支撑有效性 23 | | --- | | 镍：减产刺激镍价反弹 库存压制高度 24 | | 不锈钢：供需两弱 等待宏观刺激 25 | | 工业硅：区间震荡，短期多单及时兑现收益 25 | | 多晶硅：短期偏强，但有回落风险 26 | | 碳酸锂：长线回调充分买入 26 | | 锡：刚果（金）矿端供应扰动，锡价冲高 ...