Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spring market of stock index futures is established, and the market is expected to continue rising, with the CSI 500 index potentially being the dominant variety among the four major indices [20][22]. - The sentiment in the bond market of treasury bond futures may ease, and there may be short - term trading opportunities in the medium - and long - term contracts [23][24]. - For agricultural products, the overall supply of protein meals is sufficient and the market is under pressure; the international sugar price fluctuates and declines while the domestic sugar price fluctuates slightly; the situation of the oil and fat sector depends on the MPOB report; other agricultural products also have their own market characteristics and trends [26][28][31]. - In the ferrous metal sector, steel prices continue to fluctuate, coking coal and coke prices are driven by funds and sentiment, iron ore prices are treated bearishly at high levels, and ferroalloy prices fluctuate strongly due to cost factors [60][62][65][69]. - For non - ferrous metals, precious metals such as gold and silver rise strongly due to geopolitical risks and non - farm data; other non - ferrous metals also have their own market dynamics and trends affected by various factors [72][73][75][78]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the price of crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East; other energy and chemical products also show different market trends affected by supply, demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [121][123][127][133]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Investment Logic: Since December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen continuously, and the market has accelerated its rise in 2026. Economic data indicates an economic recovery, and the narrowing of the basis of stock index futures reflects investors' confidence. The market is expected to continue rising, and the CSI 500 index may be the dominant variety [20][21][22]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on IC and IM on dips; conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2606 and short ETF; use bull spreads for options [22]. Treasury Bond Futures - Logic Analysis: Although the overall repair trend of CPI and PPI continues, there are still structural problems. The bond market has been weak recently, but there may be short - term trading opportunities in medium - and long - term contracts [23][24]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on dips on a short - term basis; wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meals - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the cost pressure of soybeans is obvious, and the export prospects are not optimistic. Domestically, the subsequent supply of soybeans may decline, and the spot may be supported. The overall trend of meal products is expected to be volatile [27]. - Strategy Suggestion: Adopt a bearish approach for unilateral trading; wait and see for arbitrage; use a short straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the sugar price may be affected by the production in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, the high processing cost and the bottom - building trend of the external market provide support, but there is also sales pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate [30]. - Trading Strategy: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. For the domestic sugar price, consider going long at the lower end of the range and shorting at the upper end; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [30][31]. Oil and Fat Sector - Logic Analysis: Recently, the oil and fat market has been affected by various factors and fluctuates. The inventory of the three major domestic oils is gradually decreasing, and the palm oil in Malaysia is expected to reduce production and inventory. The market situation is still uncertain [35]. - Trading Strategy: The oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate in the short term with increased volatility; wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Logic Analysis: The steel market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, demand, and raw material prices. The overall trend is to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - news and policy changes [61]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread; wait and see for options [62]. Coking Coal and Coke - Logic Analysis: The recent rise in coking coal prices is mainly driven by funds and sentiment. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [64]. - Strategy Suggestion: Trade in a wide - range shock on a short - term basis; wait and see for arbitrage and options [65]. Iron Ore - Logic Analysis: The price of iron ore is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and funds. The supply is loose, and the domestic demand is expected to decline in the medium term. The price is treated bearishly at high levels [66][68]. - Strategy Suggestion: Go short lightly at high levels; wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. Ferroalloys - Logic Analysis: For ferrosilicon, the supply may shrink in the future, and the demand and cost are expected to increase. For ferromanganese - silicon, the supply is stable, and the demand and cost also support the price. The overall price fluctuates strongly [70][71]. - Strategy Suggestion: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to the improvement of supply - demand and cost factors; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [71]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Logic Analysis: The non - farm data is mixed, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East intensify the safe - haven sentiment. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain strong in the short term [73]. - Trading Strategy: Enter the market on dips based on the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [75]. Platinum and Palladium - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment is generally tight, and the result of the 232 investigation is the focus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive than palladium. The market is waiting for the official news of the investigation [75][76]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on platinum on dips; be cautious when going long on palladium before the 232 investigation result is announced; wait and see for arbitrage and options [78]. Copper - Logic Analysis: The government's QE policy may lead to more actual monetary easing. In the short term, the domestic consumption is stagnant, but the LME inventory is decreasing. In the long term, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the consumption is growing. The price fluctuates strongly in the short term but maintains an upward trend [79]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton; wait and see for arbitrage and options [80]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Logic Analysis: The geopolitical risks in the Middle East drive the oil price to rebound. The oil price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [122][123]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and trade in a wide - range shock; the domestic gasoline is strong, and the diesel is weak, and the oil futures spread is strong; wait and see for options [123]. Asphalt - Logic Analysis: The cost provides support, but the supply - demand is weak. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [124][125]. - Trading Strategy: The situation is not provided in the report. Fuel Oil - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and the price fluctuates strongly. The high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak in the first quarter, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a short - term upward trend [127][129]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a short - term shock with caution; pay attention to the FU59 positive spread arbitrage opportunity; wait and see for options [129]. Natural Gas - Logic Analysis: The international LNG price fluctuates at a low level. In the short term, the price is supported by cold weather, but in the long term, the supply is excessive. The HH price in the US is affected by weather and demand [130][131][132]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the short positions of TTF and JKM in the third quarter; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [132]. LPG - Logic Analysis: The geopolitical situation leads to a short - term premium, but the fundamental supply - demand does not support continuous price increases. The price is expected to be under pressure in the long term [133][135]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and be bearish on the far - month contracts in the medium - and long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [135]. PX & PTA - Logic Analysis: The downstream polyester production cuts increase, but the geopolitical disturbances strengthen the cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [135][136]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; conduct positive spread arbitrage of PX & PTA 3 and 5 contracts; wait and see for options [137]. BZ & EB - Logic Analysis: The inventory of pure benzene continues to increase, and the supply - demand of styrene is relatively balanced. The price of styrene is mainly affected by the cost [139][140]. - Strategy Suggestion: The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term; short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [140]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic Analysis: The supply may be adjusted, and the downstream polyester production cuts increase. The price has limited upward space and is expected to fluctuate weakly [142][144]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a weak - shock trend; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [144]. Short Fiber - Logic Analysis: The procurement sentiment is cautious, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [145]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [146]. Bottle Chip - Logic Analysis: Some bottle chip production devices are planned for maintenance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the raw material cost [147][148]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [149]. Propylene - Logic Analysis: The supply improvement is limited, and the downstream factory procurement is active. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [150][152]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a short - term shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [152]. Plastic PP - Logic Analysis: The PE and PP production has marginal cuts. The L 2605 contract can hold long positions, and the PP 2605 contract needs to pay attention to the pressure level [153][154]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long positions of the L 2605 contract and set the stop - loss at 6600 points; wait and see for the PP 2605 contract and pay attention to the pressure at 6520 points; wait and see for arbitrage; sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract and set the stop - loss at 58.0 points [154]. Caustic Soda - Logic Analysis: The market sentiment improves, but the supply - demand contradiction continues. The price is expected to fluctuate [155][156]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [157]. PVC - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weak. The cost provides support, and the export tax - refund policy has a great impact [158][160]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage and options [160]. Soda Ash - Logic Analysis: The futures price is strong this week, but the high inventory pressure needs to be tested. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [160][161][164]. - Trading Strategy: Do not operate against the sentiment, wait and see in the long term and short at an appropriate time; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options at a high level in the far - month [164]. Glass - Logic Analysis: The futures price fluctuates widely this week. The cold - repair of production lines is concentrated, and the inventory shows a downward trend. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [165][166][168]. - Trading Strategy: Do not operate against the sentiment, wait and see in the long term and short at an appropriate time; wait and see for arbitrage and options [168]. Methanol - Logic Analysis: The international device operation rate is low, the supply in China is loose, and the Middle East situation provides support [169]. - Trading Strategy: Avoid short positions temporarily and go long in the short term; pay attention to the 59 positive spread arbitrage; sell put options on dips [170]. Urea - Logic Analysis: The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has an impact on sentiment, and the demand is affected by various factors. The price fluctuates widely [171][172]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; hedging enterprises can pay attention to hedging opportunities [173]. Pulp - Logic Analysis: The market supply exceeds demand. The supply is stable, and the demand support is limited. The price fluctuates widely at a high level [173][174][176]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; aggressive investors can short a small amount near the previous high; wait and see for arbitrage and options [177]. Log - Logic Analysis: The spot price rebounds slightly. The market is affected by factors such as arrival volume and inventory. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation in Chongqing and Yantai [177][178]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait and see; aggressive investors can arrange long positions in a small amount; pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse spread arbitrage; wait and see for options [180]. Offset Printing Paper - Logic Analysis: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The paper mill's price - holding intention is strong, but the valuation is low. It may fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [181]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage; sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [182][183]. Natural Rubber - Logic Analysis: The tire inventory accumulates for 5 consecutive weeks. The supply is affected by disasters, and the inventory situation of different varieties is different [184][185][186]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the short positions of the RU 05 contract and set the stop - loss at 16135 points; wait and see for the NR 03 contract; hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread and set the stop - loss at +2950 points; sell the RU2605 call 17000 contract and set the stop - loss at 391 points [186][188]. Butadiene Rubber - Logic Analysis: The tire inventory accumulates for 5 consecutive weeks. The warehouse receipt situation of BR is different, and the inventory of tires also accumulates [189][190]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for the BR 03 contract; hold the BR2603 - NR2603 spread and set the stop - loss at - 985 points; wait and see for options [190][191].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of China's export tax - rebate policy will likely lead to a phased rush of container shipments before April 1, 2026, which is favorable for near - month contracts and unfavorable for far - month contracts, and the market may show a positive arbitrage logic [4][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event Background - On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaics. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled; for battery products, the VAT export tax - rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, and cancelled from January 1, 2027 [2] Impact Assessment - **Product Scope**: Affected products include photovoltaic and battery - related products, as well as chemical raw materials and products, plastic PVC and polymers, kitchenware, ceramic products, silicone, cement, glass products, etc [3][9] - **Export Situation**: From January to November, China's photovoltaic module export volume was 227GW, with 81.7GW exported to Europe, accounting for 35.96%. China's battery export volume was 98.7GW, a year - on - year increase of 84.8%, and nearly 90% was exported to non - European and American countries [4][9] - **Shipping Impact**: Most affected products are transported by containers. Routes to Europe, the Middle East, South America, and India - Pakistan may be more affected. Before April 1, a phased rush of container shipments is expected, which is favorable for near - month contracts and unfavorable for far - month contracts [4][20]

股指期货周报：春季行情确立 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 周度数据追踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 一周要闻 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国常会：部署实施财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策。 人民日报钟才平：统筹促消费和扩投资，建设强大国内市场。 财政部、税务总局发布公告，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自2026年4月1日起至2026 年12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退 税。 2025年12月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，扣除 食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 12月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区间。 2025年12月，美国非农就业人数喜忧参半，增加5万人，预期7万人；失业率降至4.4%。数据公布后，美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index led to selling pressure on gold and silver, but after two days of adjustment, the impact on the market gradually decreased, and gold and silver stabilized after the correction. The weakening of the US labor market and the potential interference with the Fed's independence are the main drivers of the rise in precious metals [3][4][34] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The Bloomberg Commodity Index adjustment from January 8 - 14 reduced the gold weight from about 20.4% to 14.9% and the silver weight from about 9.6% to 3.94%, resulting in a selling pressure of about $6 - 7 billion for each. The impact on the silver market was more significant. After the adjustment, the market gradually stabilized, and geopolitical events increased the demand for limited metal resources [3] - US employment data in December showed a further decline in labor market momentum. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, possibly due to some unemployed leaving the labor market. The revised employment data increased market concerns [4] - **Strategy Recommendation** - For single - side trading, buy on dips near the 5 - day moving average. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [5] 3.2 Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Market Trading Mainline** - The focus has shifted from tariff games to interest rate cut games. Trump has continuously pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, and the independence of the Fed has become a market focus [16][34] - **US Economy** - GDP growth in the second quarter was 3.8%, higher than expected, but a detailed analysis showed that the growth was somewhat deceptive. Consumption and investment were weak, and retail data was also affected by tariffs [42][44] - The US employment market cooled unexpectedly. In December, non - farm employment increased by 50,000, lower than expected, and the annual employment growth was the weakest since the pandemic [53] - Inflation rebounded moderately, and the Fed's target focus shifted. Inflation data was also affected by the government shutdown [56] - The Fed stopped shrinking its balance sheet. Powell indicated that the balance sheet reduction might end soon, marking a shift from "active tightening" to "neutral waiting" [62] 3.3 Chapter 3: Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking - **Gold** - **Global Supply and Demand** - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total gold supply was 3,717 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. In the third quarter, the total supply reached a record high. Investment demand dominated, with an increase in ETF holdings and strong demand for gold bars and coins. Central bank gold purchases remained high, while jewelry consumption declined [65][66] - **Domestic Supply and Demand** - In the first three quarters of 2025, China produced 392.931 tons of gold, a 3.60% year - on - year increase, and consumed 682.730 tons, a 7.95% year - on - year decrease. Gold jewelry consumption decreased, while demand for gold bars, coins, and industrial use increased [70] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases** - Since 2022, central banks, especially those of developing countries, have been actively buying gold. Reasons vary by country, such as optimizing foreign exchange reserves and hedging risks [77] - **Silver** - **World Supply and Demand Balance** - The supply of silver is relatively stable due to its associated production. Demand is mainly affected by industrial use, especially photovoltaic use. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase by 2% to 32,055 tons, and the demand - supply gap is expected to narrow [79] - **Inventory** - LBMA inventory was affected by various factors, including the Trump administration's potential tariff policy and the "short squeeze" in the London market. The overall global silver inventory has rebounded from the bottom in 2024 [85] - **ETF Demand and Supply - Demand Observation** - LBMA inventory has about 27,000 tons of silver, but only about 7,000 tons can be freely circulated. The overseas silver lease rate has fluctuated, and the high rate reflects the supply - demand contradiction [87]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the industrial aspect, the off - season for terminal demand is coming, but vehicle sales from January to February may be better than expected due to factors such as early national subsidy distribution, car companies' support for vehicle purchase tax, etc. Energy storage demand grows steadily limited by production capacity. There may be a rush to export lithium batteries in the first quarter due to the reduction of export tax rebates after April 1st. On the supply side, imported concentrates of traders are arriving at ports, but high lithium ore prices and high - level operation of lithium salt plants limit supply growth, and January supply may be flat month - on - month. Inventory also supports prices. In the futures aspect, although a recent meeting aimed to suppress over - expansion of lithium battery production capacity, the market is still strong, and lithium prices may continue to rise due to the expected rush to export. In the medium - to - long - term, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Demand Analysis New Energy Vehicles - Off - season but Better than Expected - From January to November 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.2466 billion, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. The off - season from January to February has the lowest vehicle sales, but factors like early national subsidy distribution and car companies' support for purchase tax may make the seasonality of power batteries stronger than expected. Power cell production follows the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41.9% to 1245.5GWh from January to December, and a 6.1% month - on - month decline in ternary power in January [11] New Energy Vehicles - Differentiated Electrification Progress in Europe and the US - From January to November 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 1.839 billion. European sales increased by 29.2% year - on - year to 3.434 million, while US sales increased by only 0.7% year - on - year to 1.39 million. The US取消IRA新能源汽车补贴 led to an early sales peak, while European countries' subsidies and carbon emission requirements stimulated sales growth. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to November 2025 reached 2.283 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [15] Energy Storage Market - Strong Orders but Production Capacity Bottlenecks Limit Scheduling Growth - In 2025, China's energy storage cell production reached 529.4GWh, a year - on - year increase of 54%. Energy storage cell inventory is at a three - year low, and the delivery cycle is extended. Scheduling in January increased by 1% month - on - month [20] January Downstream Scheduling Weakens but May be Revised Upward - In December 2023, battery production increased by 3.5% month - on - month, while in January 2024, it decreased by 5.9% month - on - month. Cell production also showed different trends in December and January. In January, affected by weak power demand, the off - season continued, but it may be revised upward due to the expected rush to export, with a continued month - on - month decline expected in February [27] Supply Analysis Stable but Slightly Declining Lithium Carbonate Production - In January, due to the maintenance of some smelters, production scheduling decreased by 1.2% month - on - month. From January to December, domestic lithium carbonate production reached 871,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44%. This week, mica - based lithium production decreased, but other raw material production made up for it, keeping the production relatively stable [32] China's Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - Not elaborated further in the content other than presenting relevant charts January Supply of Lithium Carbonate Declines Marginally - From January to November 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 219,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In November, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports decreased. It is expected that both lithium concentrate imports and lithium carbonate imports will decline month - on - month in January [41] Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Estimation - Not elaborated further in the content other than presenting relevant charts Lithium Carbonate Turns to Inventory Accumulation - This week, social inventory increased by 337 tons, turning to inventory accumulation for the first time in 20 weeks. Upstream and downstream destocking led to accelerated inventory accumulation in the trading sector [44]

电解铝 ：宏观基本面共振 铝价实现开年红 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 ◼ 宏观：地缘政治风险叠加去美元化预期推动资金青睐实物资产有色金属，资金流入推动价格上涨。后续关注美国就业数据及美国对对等关 税的裁决。同时关注伊朗地区地缘政治风险。 ◼ 产业供应：近期无超预期变动，供给端刚性预期明显，越南电解铝项目投产预期从二季度推迟至7月初。负基差较大带动短期铸锭增加、 铝棒加工费短期转负，后续持续关注铝水就地转化率。 ◼ 产业需求：表观需求短期有所走弱，但下游仍逢低积极备货，出库端无显著异动。光伏出口退税取消，一季度抢出口窗口期预计对铝需求 有一定影响。 ◼ 库存：本周铝锭及铝棒社库厂库合计109.61万吨，环比显著增加，但增量主要与期现基差较大、存套利机会有关，后续预计仓单有所增 加。 ◼ 交易逻辑：铝在供给端全球持续存缺口且供给弹性较低、需求端在能 ...

成本端推动下，价格震荡偏强 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 锰硅方面，供应端样本企业开工率与产量双双下降，在当前利润水平下，预计仍有下行驱动，不过四季度末有部分新增产能投产， 总体来看供应端平稳为主。需求端如硅铁部分所述，12月高炉密集检修结束后，1月进入了短暂复产周期，不过由于钢材库存开始 累积，预计对1月高炉复产高度有所压制。成本方面，港口锰矿库存仍处于同期低位，康密劳2月锰矿美金报价继续小幅上涨。总体 来看，锰硅自身供需有边际改善，成本推动下短期震荡偏强。 【策略】 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端样本 ...

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: India's Bi - weekly Sugar Production Soars, Domestic Pressing Enters Peak Season [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Brazil's sugar supply pressure will gradually ease as its sugarcane enters the harvest stage, and the market focus shifts to the Northern Hemisphere where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly production may lead to an unexpected increase, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar price and strong commodity market, the US sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. Domestically, the high processing cost of white sugar and the bottom - building trend of the US sugar price support the domestic sugar price, but the peak pressing season and the expected global sugar production increase in the 25/26 season may cause significant pressure on the upper shock platform. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - Trading strategies include: for single - side trading, international sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and domestic white sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, so consider low - buying and high - selling within the range; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell put options [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Core Logic**: International market: Brazil's sugar supply pressure eases, market focus on the Northern Hemisphere, India's potential over - expected production increase affects prices. Domestic market: cost supports prices, but peak pressing and expected global production increase bring pressure [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side: international sugar price bottom - shock, domestic sugar price range - shock, low - buy and high - sell. Arbitrage: wait - and - see. Options: sell put options [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1.1 International Supply - Demand Pattern Change - Increasing Cycle - According to ISO, in the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar market will have a surplus of 1.63 million tons, with production increasing by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons and consumption only increasing by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. Czarnikow predicts a global sugar supply of 185.4 million tons, a consumption of 178.2 million tons, and a surplus of 7.2 million tons. The 2026/27 season may maintain a high level or slightly decrease [9]. 2.1 Brazil's Sugar Production Expected to Remain High - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's sugar production is expected to be 45.02 million tons. For the 2026/27 season, different institutions have different forecasts, with production ranging from 38 million to 44 million tons [13]. 2.2 Brazil's Pressing Season Nearing End - In the second half of November, Brazil's central - southern region had a cane crushing volume of 15.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.08%; sugar production was 724,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94% [16]. 2.3 This Season's Brazil's Production Increase May Fall Short of Expectations - As of the second half of November 2025/26, Brazil's central - southern region had a cumulative crushing volume of 592.266 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%; cumulative sugar production was 39.904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.38%. The final production increase may be less than expected [19]. 2.4 Brazil's Ethanol Production and Sales Situation - The current alcohol - to - sugar price is about 16.87 cents per pound, and the alcohol - to - gasoline ratio in São Paulo is about 0.68 [21]. 2.5 Brazil's Sugar Inventory Drops Slightly, Exports Decrease - In December, Brazil exported about 2.913 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. As of December in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar export was 28.1722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.16%. As of November 30, the sugar inventory in Brazil's central - southern region was 10.4175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4432 million tons [23]. 3.1 Thailand's New Season Expected to Increase Production - In the 25/26 season, Thailand's sugar production is expected to be 11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 960,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the export was 5.1349 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.39 million tons. However, as of December 29, 2025/26, the cumulative cane crushing volume decreased by 19.27% year - on - year, and the final production increase may be less than expected [29]. 3.3 25/26 Season India's Sugar Production Increase May Exceed Expectations - As of December 31, 2025, India's 2025/26 season sugar production reached 11.897 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 25%. The final production may significantly increase year - on - year and may exceed expectations [34]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 4.1 Domestic Sugar Production Situation - As of December 31, 2025/26, in Guangxi, 73 sugar mills had all started production, with a cumulative cane crushing volume of 16.2303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2515 million tons; sugar production was 1.9419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8095 million tons. In Yunnan, as of December 31, 2025, 36 sugar mills were in operation, with a cumulative cane crushing volume of 3.461 million tons, a year - on - year increase, and sugar production of 0.3923 million tons, a year - on - year increase [37]. 4.2 Domestic Sugar Sales and Inventory Situation - As of December 31, 2025/26, in Guangxi, the cumulative sugar sales were 0.8848 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7474 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 45.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.76 percentage points. In Yunnan, the cumulative sugar sales were 0.2814 million tons, and the sales - to - production ratio was 71.72% [40]. 4.3 November Import Volume Decreases - In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 93,400 tons. The import of syrup and premixed powder in November was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [45]. 4.4 High Import Profits - The extra - quota cost of Brazilian sugar is 5,050 yuan, with a profit of 470 yuan; the extra - quota cost of Thai sugar is 5,100 yuan, with a profit of 410 yuan. However, most prices have been fixed, so the correlation between domestic and foreign price differences is not significant [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's December report increased US corn exports, but the production is at a high level. In the short term, US corn will fluctuate slightly stronger. The support of the US corn 03 contract at 430 cents per bushel is relatively strong. With the 11% tariff for imported US corn and 12% for sorghum in China, importing US corn has become profitable, and importing from Brazil offers higher profits [4]. - Currently, farmers' reluctance to sell has weakened, leading to an increase in corn supply. Port inventories remain low, and port prices are stable. It is expected that there will be another wave of selling pressure for Northeast corn in mid - January. In the short term, the supply of Northeast corn is increasing, but downstream demand for replenishment is driving a relative stability in Northeast corn prices. In North China, the increase in corn supply has led to a continuous decline in spot prices. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China remains high, and it is expected that corn supply will increase next week. In the short term, the supply at the northern ports will increase, and the purchase price will remain stable before the Spring Festival. The 03 corn contract will fluctuate at a high level, and the decline of the 07 corn contract is limited [4]. - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, while downstream提货 has decreased, leading to an increase in starch inventory, which remains at a high level. As corn spot prices are weak, starch spot prices are also weakening. The profits of North China starch factories have declined, and the operating rate of starch enterprises will continue to rise. As corn prices decline, there is still room for starch spot prices to fall. It is expected that the 03 corn starch contract will follow the high - level fluctuations of corn [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Situation**: US corn exports are increasing, and the 03 contract has strong support at 430 cents per bushel. In China, corn supply in the Northeast and North China is increasing, and there will be a peak selling season in mid - January. Corn spot prices still have room to fall. In the short term, corn prices will continue to decline, and the 03 contract has limited room for rebound [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral trading: Consider buying US corn 03 below 430 cents per bushel, making long - term purchases of 07 corn below 2240 yuan, and short - term shorting of 03 corn [5]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Options: Consider a cumulative put strategy for 03 corn at high prices [5]. Chapter Two: Core Logic Analysis International Market - **US Corn Supply and Demand** - The USDA's December report shows changes in US corn supply and demand indicators such as planting area, yield, inventory, and consumption in different years. The export volume has been adjusted, and attention should be paid to the January report. Importing US corn and Brazilian corn is currently profitable [9]. - As of January 1, the weekly US corn export inspection was 1.21 million tons, with a cumulative export of 26.81 million tons. This week, there were no exports to China, with a cumulative export of 0 tons and a proportion of 0%. In November, 560,000 tons of corn were imported, and from January to November, 1.85 million tons were imported, compared with 13.32 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - **US Corn Non - commercial Net Long Position and Ethanol Production** - As of December 30, the non - commercial net long position of US corn decreased, and ethanol production also decreased. The US corn 03 contract is oscillating at the bottom, with strong support at 430 cents per bushel [15]. Domestic Market - **Deep - processing and Feed Enterprises** - The corn inventory of feed enterprises has increased but is lower than the same period last year. As of January 8, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills was 30.1 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 days and a year - on - year decrease of 6.81% [19]. - Deep - processing consumption has slightly decreased. From January 1 to January 7, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises in China consumed 1.3817 million tons of corn, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week. Deep - processing inventory has increased, and it is expected to continue rising next week. As of January 7, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 354 tons, a 1.32% increase from the previous week and a 40.5% decrease year - on - year [20]. - **Port Inventories** - The corn inventory at northern ports has decreased, while the grain inventory at southern ports has increased. As of January 2, the corn inventory at the four northern ports was 1.538 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.889 million tons. The shipping volume from the four ports this week was 593,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 74,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory was 478,000 tons, an increase of 93,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 294,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week; the imported sorghum was 107,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week; the imported barley was 710,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week; and the total grain inventory was 1.589 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 36,000 tons [23]. - **Grain Sales Progress** - The grain sales progress has accelerated. The overall national grain sales progress (including all 13 provinces) is 50%, a 3% increase from the previous week and a 2% increase year - on - year; the sales progress in 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) is 48%, a 4% increase from the previous week and a 3% increase year - on - year [26]. - **Starch Market** - The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has decreased. From January 1 to January 7, the national corn processing volume was 627,900 tons, and the starch production was 324,800 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate was 59.37%, a 0.49% decrease from the previous week [30]. - As North China corn spot prices fall, starch spot prices decline, and by - product prices remain stable, enterprise profits have decreased. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 67 yuan, a decrease of 39 yuan from the previous week, and in Shandong, it was - 6 yuan, a decrease of 3 yuan [30]. - Downstream提货 has decreased, and with the decline in the operating rate, starch inventory has increased. It is expected to continue rising next week. As of January 7, the corn starch inventory was 1.125 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week, a 0.2% increase, a 2.1% increase from the beginning of the month, and a 25.1% increase year - on - year [30]. - **Substitute Products** - The wheat price in North China is basically around 2,490 yuan per ton, showing a weak trend. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. North China corn is weak, while Northeast corn is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed, and the price difference between northern port corn and the 05 corn contract has declined [39]. Chapter Three: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding** - From January 4 to January 8, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 59 yuan per head, a decrease of 3 yuan per head from the previous week, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 75 yuan per head, an increase of 3 yuan per head from the previous week [43]. - From January 4 to January 8, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 1.13 yuan per chicken, compared with 1.24 yuan per chicken last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost this week was 3.52 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.42 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.55 yuan per catty last week [49]. - **Deep - processing Downstream Consumption** - The operating rate of starch sugar: The operating rate of F55 high - fructose syrup this week was 60.77%, a 6.27% increase from the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 57.1%, a 5.31% increase from the previous week [52]. - The operating rate of paper mills: The operating rate of corrugated paper this week was 65.86%, a 1.63% increase from the previous week, and the operating rate of containerboard was 66.8%, a 1.86% decrease from the previous week [52]. - **Prices of Corn and Substitute Products** - The report shows the price trends of corn and substitute products such as wheat, sorghum, and their price differences, as well as the price differences between different corn and starch contracts [53][57][61].

Report Title Market Expectations Fluctuate, Treat Iron Ore Prices at High Levels with a Bearish Outlook Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, iron ore prices trended strongly, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and capital, with the previous sharp rise in non - ferrous metals also having a certain impact on iron ore prices. The supply side remains loose, and domestic steel demand is expected to continue to decline year - on - year, with mid - term demand likely to remain at a low level. In the first half of 2026, steel demand is expected to continue to decline, and the weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals is likely to continue, making it difficult for high iron ore valuations to persist. Overall, the recent rise in the futures market has boosted sentiment, but the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate mid - term iron ore prices. The current fundamentals of iron ore have changed significantly, and there is limited room for further price increases. In the mid - term, it is advisable to take a bearish stance with light positions at high prices [3]. - The trading strategy suggests taking a bearish stance with light positions for single - sided trading, while for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Logic Analysis**: The price of iron ore has been strong this week, with the fundamentals remaining largely unchanged. Macro - sentiment and capital are the main drivers, and the previous sharp rise in non - ferrous metals has also influenced the iron ore futures price. The supply side is in a loose situation, and domestic steel demand is expected to continue to decline year - on - year. In the mid - term, domestic demand is likely to remain at a low level. In the first half of 2026, steel demand is expected to contribute to a continuous decline, and the weakening of domestic iron ore fundamentals is likely to continue, making it difficult for high iron ore valuations to last. Although the recent rise in the futures market has boosted sentiment, the rapid decline in domestic steel demand is expected to dominate mid - term iron ore prices. There is limited room for further price increases, and a bearish stance with light positions at high prices is recommended in the mid - term [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, take a bearish stance with light positions at high prices; for arbitrage and options, wait and see [3]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply - side Analysis - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: Global iron ore shipments remain at a high level. In 2025, the total output of the four major mines was 1.15 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% (23 million tons), with most of the increase contributed by Fortescue. The total shipment volume was 1.13 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% (12 million tons), and most of the shipment decline was contributed by Rio Tinto. In 2026, the global shipments of the four major mines are expected to increase steadily by about 15 million tons. This week, global shipments were 36.77 million tons, an increase of 2.13 million tons from last week and 1.98 million tons year - on - year [6][7]. - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment**: Non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore global shipments have been at a high level year - on - year. From 2023 - 2025, non - Australian and non - Brazilian mines continuously contributed increments, with an average annual increment of over 20 million tons for three consecutive years. The Simandou mining area is expected to contribute most of the increment in 2026, with an annual increment of about 20 million tons. It is still in the production ramp - up stage in 2026 [8][9]. - **Iron Ore Port Inventory**: The current total inventory of imported iron ore at domestic ports is at the highest level in the past six years, and the fundamentals remain in a loose pattern. In 2025, the total inventory of imported iron ore in China increased slightly. In the first half of the year, due to supply - side disturbances, the inventory decreased by over 10 million tons, but in the second half of the year, with the recovery of the supply side and the relatively rapid weakening of terminal demand, the inventory continued to increase, with the maximum inventory accumulation approaching 20 million tons and the annual inventory accumulation being about 10 million tons. In the first half of 2026, the loose supply pattern of global iron ore is expected to continue [10][11]. Demand - side Analysis - **Domestic Steel Demand**: In 2026, there is no expectation of an increase in domestic steel demand, and it is expected to continue the pattern of 2024 - 2025. From 2023 - 2025, overseas iron element consumption increased continuously year - on - year, with an average annual increase of over 30 million tons. The terminal steel demand structure has changed significantly in the past three years, with iron element exports (steel + billets + indirect) contributing the largest increment and volatility in terminal steel demand. However, the impact of overseas steel demand on domestic iron ore prices is transmitted relatively slowly [12][13]. Price and Spread Analysis - **Imported Iron Ore Port Price**: Various price indices and spreads of imported iron ore at ports are presented, including the Platts iron ore price index, the price difference between different iron ore products at Qingdao Port, and the relationship between steel mill cash profits and the price difference of high, medium, and low - grade iron ore powders [17][18]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Profit**: The import profits of different types of iron ore, such as PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special fines, and others, are shown [19][20]. - **Profit of East China Mainstream Steel Mills**: The cash profits of East China's threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, as well as the cost data of iron water, hot - rolled coils, steel billets, and threaded steel in East China, are provided [21][22]. - **Domestic and Overseas US Dollar Spread**: The spreads between SGX (Singapore Exchange) and DCE (Dalian Commodity Exchange) iron ore contracts, the premium rate of Singapore iron ore over domestic iron ore, and the spread between iron water and scrap steel in East China are analyzed [23][24]. - **Iron Ore Futures Basis and Inter - period Spread**: The basis of the optimal deliverable iron ore against different DCE contracts and the inter - period spreads are presented [25][26]. Shipment of Global Four Major Mines The global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN's iron ore, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports, are shown [27][28]. Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory The inventory data of different types of imported iron ore at ports, including powder ore, lump ore, pellet, non - trade ore, iron concentrate, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore, are provided [29][30].