玉米：本周，现货市场依旧维持紧张的氛围，农户销售进度加快，但是市场供应依旧短缺，粮源主要被贸易商囤积。短期看，供应保持低位与 下游企业补库需求的双重驱动下，玉米价格仍将保持强劲势头。值得关注的是，贸易商屯粮待涨，一定程度上延缓了售粮压力的集中释放，后 续关注产区粮源供应变化和港库库存的累积状况。中长期来看，本年度玉米市场供需格局仍维持偏紧态势，种植成本仍将对价格形成强支撑， 预计在农户售粮压力逐步释放后，现货价格有望开启新一轮上涨周期。 淀粉：短期看，淀粉报价跟随原料价格波动。新季玉米上市后，深加工采购积极性增加，开机率也逐步上调，不过由于下游补货依旧平缓，造 成产业去库缓慢，在高库存的压制下，淀粉价格依旧承压。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，若淀粉 报价出现大幅回落，届时会刺激下游补货积极性提升，带动价格走强。 | | | | | | | 农产品早报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心农产品 ...

Core View - The report provides data on the implied volatility index, historical volatility, and their spreads of financial and commodity options, as well as the quantile rankings of implied volatility and volatility spreads, to reflect the relative levels of implied volatility of different options [3][5] Summary by Related Catalog Implied Volatility Index, Historical Volatility, and Their Spread Chart - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike prices above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract. The larger the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility, the higher the implied volatility relative to historical volatility; the smaller the difference, the lower the implied volatility relative to historical volatility [3] Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking Chart - Implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's implied volatility in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low. Volatility spread is the implied volatility index minus historical volatility [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2512 contract is approaching the delivery logic, with P1 around 1,550 - 1,600 points. P2 and P3 are benchmarked against the second - half of December cabin positions, expecting a stable - to - rising trend. [3][11] - The EC2602 contract is undervalued. The core of going long is to wait for the signal of cargo capacity explosion. The cargo volume on the European route is strong this year. Considering factors such as the late Chinese New Year, the incomplete start of pre - holiday concentrated shipments, and the positive impact of December price cuts on January price increase implementation, if the peak season is gradually realized, EC2602 may have more upside potential. [3][11] - For the EC2604 contract, a short - selling approach on rallies is still recommended. [3][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1,631.1, with a change of 1.13% and 6.07% (unclear). The basis was 8.3, the trading volume was 1,737, the open interest was 4,501, and the open interest change was - 7/31 - 2,857. [2][10] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1,471.9, the basis was 167.5, the trading volume was 41,467, and the open interest was 40,111. [2][10] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1,072.2, with a change of 1.67%. The basis was 567.2, the trading volume was 7,369, the open interest was 18,743, and the open interest change was 42. [2][10] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1,215.2, with a change of 2.11%. The basis was 424.2, the trading volume was 519, and the open interest was 2,254. [2][10] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1,339.0, with a change of 2.15%. The basis was 300.4, the trading volume was 257, the open interest was 1,630, and the open interest change was - 20. [2][10] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1,021.0, with a change of 0.87%. The basis was 618.4, the trading volume was 954, the open interest was 3,975, and the open interest change was 2,715. [2][10] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2512 - 2504: The previous day's spread was 558.9, with a daily change of 0.6 and a weekly change of - 53.8. [2][10] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 159.2, with a daily change of - 66.0 and a weekly change of 14.5. [2][10] - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's spread was 399.7, with a daily change of 66.6 and a weekly change of - 68.3. [2][10] Spot Market Indicators (European Route) - SCHIS: Updated weekly on Mondays. As of November 24, 2025, it was 1,639.37 points, with a current - period increase of 20.75% and a previous - period decrease of 9.78%. [2][10] - SCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays. As of November 28, 2025, it was 1,404 dollars/TEU, with a current - period increase of 2.71% and a previous - period decrease of 3.55%. [2][10] - CCFI: Updated weekly on Fridays. As of November 28, 2025, it was 1,449.34 points, with a current - period increase of 1.14% and a previous - period increase of 2.09%. [2][10] - NCFI: As of November 28, 2025, it was 1,024.64 points, with a current - period increase of 7.671% and a previous - period decrease of 2.83%. [2][10] Recent European Route Spot Situation - The average price in Week 49 was 2,360 dollars, equivalent to 1,650 points on the futures market. The price increase in early December failed. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2,200 dollars, setting the tone. OA was at 2,300 - 2,400 dollars, PA was at 2,100 - 2,200 dollars, with a current central price of 2,270 dollars, equivalent to 1,580 points on the futures market. MSC plans to raise the price of second - half of December cabin positions to 3,500 dollars, and ONE to 2,800 dollars. Shipping companies are expected to announce price increases for January cabin positions in early December. [4][12] Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the second phase of the agreement. [5][13] - On November 29, Hezbollah in Lebanon stated that it would retaliate against Israel for the attack on its senior commander. [5][13]

研究中心能化团队 2025/12/01 SP主力合约收盘价： 5198.00 | 日期 | 2025/11/28 | 2025/11/27 | 2025/11/26 | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5198.00 | 5184.00 | 5208.00 | 5212.00 | 5220.00 | | 折美元价 | 639.16 | 639.16 | 642.20 | 641.47 | 641.40 | | 距上一日涨跌 | 0.27006% | -0.46083% | -0.07675% | -0.15326% | -0.15302% | | 山东银星基差 | 212 | 241 | 257 | 253 | 270 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 187 | 251 | 227 | 238 | 280 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/12/01 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/24 | 58.84 | 62.22 | 64.50 | 0.48 | 0.59 | -3.38 | 0.29 | 189.66 | 17.44 | 240.61 | 38.84 | | 2025/11/25 | 57.95 | 62.48 | 64.33 | 0.52 | 0.68 | -4.53 | 0.30 | 185.72 | 15.52 | 235.38 | 36.38 | | 2025/11/26 | 58. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2512 contract is approaching the delivery logic, with P1 expected to be around 1,550 - 1,600 points. P2 and P3 are benchmarked against the second - half of December cabin positions. The market anticipates a stable - with - increase trend, observing the shipping companies' price increase announcements and implementation [3]. - The EC2602 contract is undervalued. The key to going long is to wait for the signal of cargo - induced full - capacity utilization during the off - season. Despite high shipping capacity, the outlook isn't overly pessimistic due to the late Chinese New Year, strong cargo volume on the European route this year, and the fact that price cuts in December for inventory stocking are beneficial for the implementation of price increases in January. If the peak - season rush is gradually realized, EC2602 may have greater upside potential [3]. - For the EC2604 contract, it is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of various EC contracts on the previous day are as follows: EC2512 at 1,631.1 with a 1.15% increase; EC2602 at 1,631.1 with a 6.07% increase; EC2604 at 1,471.9 with a 1.67% increase; EC2606 at 1,215.2 with a 2.11% increase; EC2608 at 1,339.0 with a 2.15% increase; EC2610 at 1,021.0 with a 0.87% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The previous day's trading volumes were 1,737 for EC2512 and 4,146 for EC2602, etc. The previous day's open interests were 4,501 for EC2512 and 40,111 for EC2602, etc., with corresponding changes in open interest [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of different contract combinations (e.g., EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, etc.) and their day - on - day and week - on - week changes are provided. For example, the EC2512 - 2504 spread was 558.0, with a day - on - day change of 0.6 and a week - on - week change of - 53.8 [2]. Shipping Index Data - **SCFI (European Route)**: As of November 24, 2025, the index was 1,639.37 points, a 20.75% increase from the previous period and a 2.71% increase from two periods ago [2]. - **CCFI**: As of November 28, 2025, the index was 1,449.34 points, a 1.14% increase from the previous period and a 2.09% increase from two periods ago [2]. - **NCFI**: As of November 28, 2025, the index was 1,024.64 points, a 7.67% increase from the previous period and a - 2.83% change from two periods ago [2]. Recent European Route Spot Situation - In early December, the price increase announcement failed. The average price in Week 49 was $2,360, equivalent to 1,650 points on the futures market. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to $2,200, setting the tone, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is $2,270, equivalent to 1,580 points on the futures market. MSC is calling for a price increase to $3,500 for the second - half of December cabin positions, and ONE to $2,800. Shipping companies are expected to announce price increases for January cabin positions in early December [4]. Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the agreement. On November 29, Lebanon's Hezbollah said it would retaliate against Israel for the assassination of a senior commander [5].

本周锌价震荡，LME锌0-3M升水增至224美金。供应端，国产和进口TC加速下滑。四季度至明年一季度国产矿边际走 紧，冬储临近，国内冶炼厂内卷矿库存较严重，目前利润尚可，需关注硫酸价格和白银价格的走势对总利润的影响。11 月，火烧云锌锭正式投产(月产量预计在8k-1wt)，其他冶炼厂增量有限，12月多数冶炼厂检修环比预计下滑1万吨以 上。需求端，内需季节性疲软;海外，欧洲需求一般。国内社库震荡下行，海外LE库存去化，升水再次上扬;当前外强内 弱格局下出口窗口已打开，海外已出现部分交仓情况。策略方面，锌国内基本面现实较差，但年底供应端存阶段性减 量，价格重心或较难深跌。短期宏观不确定性增强情况下单边建议观望为主;内外方面，关注反套机会;月差方面，建议 关注01-03的正套机会。 镍 ： 日期 1.5菲律宾镍矿 高镍铁 沪镍现货 金川升贴水 俄镍升贴水 2025/11/24 57.0 - 119900 4350 500 2025/11/25 57.0 - 119500 4450 500 2025/11/26 57.0 - 120450 4650 400 2025/11/27 57.0 - 119150 4650 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - For methanol, Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound between ports and the inland, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but considering the large floating storage, it is expected to return to a state of inventory accumulation. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to expect a significant decline in imports from December to January. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the end - state of the 01 contract will still be high inventory. It is advisable to take advantage of high prices to conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread operation [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is at a neutral level compared to the same period. Upstream, the two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream, raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding remains stable, other price differentials fluctuate, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance operations in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has recently decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream inventory of the two major oil companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Against the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face a moderately excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance operations, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - For PVC, the basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. During the summer, the northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recently, the near - end export orders have slightly declined. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [6]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the动力煤期货price remained at 801. The prices of江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, and CFR东南亚 showed various changes. For example, the江苏 spot price increased from 2053 to 2100, and the CFR China price increased from 237 to 247 [1]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Iranian plants have shut down, leading to a resonance rebound between ports and the inland. The basis has strengthened slightly, and port inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but there is a large amount of floating storage. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to expect a significant decline in imports from December to January [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the东北亚乙烯price remained at 730 on some days. The prices of华北LL,华东LL,华东LD,华东HD, LL美金, and LL美湾 showed fluctuations. For example, the华北LL price decreased from 6760 to 6680 and then increased to 6720 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral compared to the same period. Upstream, the two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream, raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the山东丙烯price changed from 5900 to 6000, and the东北亚丙烯price remained at 695 on some days. The prices of华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚, PP美金, and PP美湾 also showed fluctuations. For example, the华东PP price decreased from 6285 to 6205 and then increased to 6270 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The upstream inventory of the two major oil companies and the middle - stream inventory are decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate remains stable [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, the西北电石price increased from 2450 to 2500, and the山东烧碱price remained at 777 on some days. The prices of电石法 - 华东,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南,电石法 - 西北,进口美金价, and出口利润 also showed changes. For example, the电石 - based PVC price in East China increased from 4530 to 4560 [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The basis of the 01 contract remains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. During the summer, the northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports [6].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/01 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 87440 11040 7.88 三月 87400 10995 7.94 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.03 -1071.50 现货出口 869.25 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22370 3261 6.86 三月 22450 3037 5.62 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.44 -5161.67 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21450 2819 7.61 三月 21650 2845 7.56 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.31 -1969.45 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119500 14663 8.15 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.13 -1633.66 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on the soybean, soybean meal, and palm oil industries, including export sales, planting progress, and price - setting data [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - A private exporter reported selling 312,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - For the week ending October 16, US soybean export sales net increased by 1.108 million tons, up 41% from the previous week and 34% from the four - week average, with exports loading at 1.7301 million tons, up 150% from the previous week and 173% from the four - week average [1]. - For the week ending October 16, US soybean meal export sales net increased by 543,100 tons, up 52% from the previous week and 288% from the four - week average, with exports loading at 380,400 tons, up 86% from the previous week and 46% from the four - week average [1]. - Patria Agronegocios reported that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting rate was 86.97%, lower than 89.54% in the same period last year but higher than the five - year average of 85.13%, and most areas may have lower yields than the 2024/25 season [1]. - The EIA reported that US soybean oil used for biofuel production in September rose to 1.053 billion pounds, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [1]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil in December at $926.14 per ton, lower than $963.75 in November, and the export tariff will drop to $74 from $124 in the previous month [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 24 to November 28, 2025 are presented [2].