甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/04 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/10/2 8 801 2212 2213 2450 2495 2425 2610 262 324 -41 -50 - 2025/10/2 9 801 2220 2215 2440 2495 2415 2610 262 324 - -50 - 2025/10/3 0 801 2190 2190 2440 2495 2415 2620 257 324 - -50 - 2025/10/3 1 801 2170 2165 2435 2495 2415 2605 251 323 - -55 - 2025/11/0 3 801 - - - 2495 - - - - - -45 - 日度变化 0 - - - 0 - - - - - 10 - 观点 现实差继续，伊朗停车慢于预期，11月应还是高进口，01矛盾较难处理，港口制裁的事情预计能在限气结束前解 决，库存去化较 难，甲醇上涨乏力，下跌空间关 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from October 28 to November 3, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. For example, the price of Beijing's rebar was 3150 on October 28 and remained 3200 on November 3, with no change [1]. Basis and Spread - No information provided Production and Inventory - No information provided

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the continuous tightness in the mining end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. - For aluminum, with good domestic apparent demand, high proportion of molten aluminum, de - stocking of aluminum ingots and various aluminum products, and supply disruptions overseas, hold long - term on dips due to the low inventory [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but there may be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the spread between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but there are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian mining end and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [3]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and overseas lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,200 - 17,500. It is recommended to wait and see the resumption of secondary lead production and the increase of warehouse receipts [6]. - For tin, in the short - term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systematic macro risk, the tin price has a large downward space; in the long - term, hold on dips near the cost line [7]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle with the seasonal marginal cost as the anchor [8]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of "anti - involution", the price elasticity is high after supply - side disturbances are realized, and there is strong downward support before that. If the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the long - term pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years [8]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak, and the Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - Market sentiment was dominated by tariff negotiation progress this week. After the China - US negotiation, the bullish news was digested, and the copper price tested the support of the 10 - day moving average. The downstream copper开工 rate decreased, but the inventory showed a slight de - stocking pattern [1]. - Some mines were reported to enter the market for hedging at the price of $11,000. There may be medium - sized deliveries of LME copper in the near future [1]. Aluminum - Domestic apparent demand was good, the proportion of molten aluminum was at a high level, and both aluminum ingots and various aluminum products were de - stocking. Overseas supply was affected by potential production stoppages [1]. - The improvement of China - US economic and trade relations and the Fed's decision to stop balance - sheet reduction led to a marginal improvement in demand [1]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillated upward this week. The treatment charges (TC) for domestic and imported zinc concentrates accelerated their decline. The domestic zinc concentrate supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year [2]. - The Huoshaoyun zinc ingot officially started production in November, with an expected monthly output of 8,000 - 10,000 tons. The total supply is expected to increase by about 8,000 tons month - on - month, but the market acceptance needs further observation [2]. - Domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe was average. Some overseas smelters faced production difficulties due to processing fees. The domestic social inventory oscillated, and the overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, the demand was weak, and the premiums were stable recently. Both domestic and overseas inventories continued to accumulate [3]. - There were continuous disturbances at the Indonesian mining end, and the policy side had the motivation to support prices [3]. Lead - The lead price declined this week due to the production cut of downstream lead users. The supply of scrap lead was weak year - on - year, and the recovery of secondary lead production was slow [6]. - The demand for lead batteries decreased, and the finished - product inventory was high. The supply - demand mismatch was serious, and the spot premium in Hunan continued to rise [6]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was - 75, and the five - region social inventory was at a historical low of 29,800 tons. The spot tightness was not significantly relieved [6]. Tin - The tin price oscillated this week. The processing fees at the mining end were at a low level, and the supply improved marginally after the maintenance of Yunnan Tin ended [6][7]. - There were differences in the output of the Wa State in Myanmar, and the Indonesian tin exports may recover to normal in 2026, but there were short - term production stoppages due to anti - smuggling efforts [7]. - The demand was mainly supported by rigidity at high prices, and the overseas LME inventory oscillated at a low level and recovered [7]. Industrial Silicon - The operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was stable, and the number of operating furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly in the dry season. The supply - demand of industrial silicon in Q4 is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of about 30,000 tons [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price dropped rapidly on Friday due to the rumor of the resumption of production of Jiangxi mines. The overseas mines firmly supported the price, and the market supply of concentrated ore was tight [8]. - Lithium salt producers were reluctant to sell due to inventory reduction and high downstream开工 rates. The downstream was mainly in a wait - and - see attitude, and the trading volume above 80,000 yuan was small [8]. Stainless Steel - The steel mills' production plan in October increased slightly month - on - month. The demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remained stable [11]. - The inventory was at a high level, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The fundamentals were generally weak [11].

| | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 月变化 | 年变化 | | 最新 | 日变化 | | 周变化 | 月变化 年变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1645.00 | 70.00 | 70.00 | 95.00 | 0.30% | Peak Downs | 211.50 | 0.00 | 1.80 | 6.50 | -7.30 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1170.00 | 0.00 | 35.00 | 152.00 | 0.86% | Goonyella | 211.50 | 0.00 | 1.80 | 6.50 | -7.30 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1470.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 80.00 | -12.50% | 盘面05 | 1349.00 | -12.50 | 28.00 | 45.00 | -5.30% | | 安泽主焦 | 1600.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.00 | -3.03% | 盘面09 | 1413.50 ...

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4025.25 with a change of 13.75 [2] - London Silver's latest price is 48.78 with a change of -0.18 [2] - London Platinum's latest price is 1589.00 with a change of -10.00 [2] - London Palladium's latest price is 1465.00 with a change of 37.00 [2] - WTI Crude's latest price is 61.05 with a change of 0.07 [2] - LME Copper's latest price is 10912.00 with a change of 29.00 [2] Trading Data - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 658.85 with a change of -6.69 [3] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1041.78 with a change of 2.58 [3] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15189.82 with no change [3] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1050.68 with no change [3] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [3] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2 with no change [3]

Report Overview - The report is a fuel oil morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on November 4, 2025, focusing on fuel oil market data and analysis [3]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the 380 fuel oil crack spread fluctuated, the monthly spread weakened month-on-month, the basis fluctuated weakly, the European HSFO crack spread strengthened, and the EW weakened significantly. The 0.5 low-sulfur crack spread in Singapore fluctuated at a low level, and the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at a low level [6]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil stocks increased, floating storage increased, ARA's residual fuel oil stocks decreased, floating storage increased, and EIA's residual fuel oil stocks decreased slightly [6]. - In terms of shipments, Russia's residual fuel oil shipments rebounded this week but were still low year-on-year. In October, Russia's overall residual fuel oil shipments decreased month-on-month. Saudi Arabia's residual fuel oil shipments fluctuated at a high level, the UAE's shipments decreased month-on-month. Singapore's arrivals were neutral this week, and China's residual fuel oil arrivals increased month-on-month [7]. - This week, the domestic and foreign spreads of high and low sulfur rebounded significantly. The external low-sulfur market remained weak. The fundamentals of high-sulfur in Singapore were poor, but the EW and raw material premiums supported the 380 crack spread, showing a short-term fluctuating pattern [7]. Market Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 389.26 | 390.02 | 392.05 | 393.07 | 384.30 | -8.77 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 411.42 | 417.07 | 417.96 | 416.37 | 419.61 | 3.24 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -2.31 | -3.04 | -2.63 | -2.40 | -3.40 | -1.00 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 680.86 | 689.14 | 691.99 | 688.48 | 675.04 | -13.44 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -269.44 | -272.07 | -274.03 | -272.11 | -255.43 | 16.68 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 28.62 | 29.11 | 29.43 | 28.89 | 27.83 | -1.06 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 22.16 | 27.05 | 25.91 | 23.30 | 35.31 | 12.01 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 383.93 | 373.72 | 373.35 | 375.53 | 381.30 | 5.77 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 389.68 | 380.28 | 378.91 | 382.28 | 391.34 | 9.06 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 443.72 | 438.46 | 443.70 | 449.25 | 456.36 | 7.11 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 91.15 | 89.63 | 90.58 | 92.03 | 89.03 | -3.00 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.23 | -4.56 | -4.93 | -4.98 | -4.30 | 0.68 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -230.79 | -224.80 | -226.59 | -231.77 | -202.46 | 29.31 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 383.42 | 372.68 | 372.56 | 374.81 | - | - | | FOB VLSFO | 441.88 | 437.28 | 442.83 | 448.61 | 456.00 | 7.39 | | 380 Basis | -1.15 | -1.80 | -1.95 | -1.75 | -3.75 | -2.00 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 10.2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | - | 8.0 | - | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 13.4 | 12.6 | 14.3 | - | 10.2 | - | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2818 | 2796 | 2751 | 2745 | 2790 | 45 | | FU 05 | 2756 | 2744 | 2713 | 2712 | 2755 | 43 | | FU 09 | 2675 | 2672 | 2657 | 2653 | 2683 | 30 | | FU 01 - 05 | 62 | 52 | 38 | 33 | 35 | 2 | | FU 05 - 09 | 81 | 72 | 56 | 59 | 72 | 13 | | FU 09 - 01 | -143 | -124 | -94 | -92 | -107 | -15 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/10/28 | 2025/10/29 | 2025/10/30 | 2025/10/31 | 2025/11/03 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3273 | 3246 | 3255 | 3268 | 3335 | 67 | | LU 05 | 3237 | 3212 | 3223 | 3239 | 3288 | 49 | | LU 09 | 3262 | 3235 | 3237 | 3252 | 3288 | 36 | | LU 01 - 05 | 36 | 34 | 32 | 29 | 47 | 18 | | LU 05 - 09 | -25 | -23 | -14 | -13 | 0 | 13 | | LU 09 - 01 | -11 | -11 | -18 | -16 | -47 | -31 | [6]

Report Title - Iron Alloy Morning Report [1] Report Date - November 4, 2025 [2] Price Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - Spot prices vary by region and grade, e.g., Ningxia 72 is 5150 yuan, with a daily change of -30 yuan and a weekly change of -20 yuan; Tianjin 72 export price is 1055 US dollars, with no daily or weekly change [2] - Futures prices also show different trends for different contracts, such as the main contract at 5526 yuan, up 26 yuan daily and down 38 yuan weekly [2] - Basis, spreads between different contracts, and the spread between silicon ferrosilicon and silicon manganese are provided [2] Silicon Manganese - Spot prices vary by region, e.g., Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5650 yuan, down 10 yuan daily and 30 yuan weekly; the main futures contract is 5794 yuan, up 22 yuan daily and down 8 yuan weekly [2] - Similar to silicon ferrosilicon, basis, spreads between different contracts are presented [2] Historical Price Trends - Multiple charts show the historical price trends of silicon ferrosilicon and silicon manganese in different regions, including market prices, export and import prices, and basis, from 2021 to 2025 [3][4][6] Supply - Related Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - Production data includes monthly and weekly production volumes of 136 sample enterprises in China, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4] - Export prices at Tianjin Port for different grades are shown over the years [4] Silicon Manganese - Production data includes weekly production volumes in China and purchasing volumes and prices from HeSteel Group [6] - The opening rate of silicon manganese enterprises in China is also provided [6] Demand - Related Information - Demand - related data includes estimated and actual production volumes of crude steel in China, production volumes of stainless - steel crude steel, production and price data of metal magnesium, and the opening rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in China [4] - The demand volume of silicon manganese in China is presented [4][7] Inventory - Related Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - Inventory data includes weekly inventories of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions, as well as daily warehouse receipt quantities, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5] - Average available inventory days in different regions of China are provided [5] Silicon Manganese - Inventory data includes daily warehouse receipt quantities, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, as well as weekly inventories of 63 sample enterprises in China [7] - Average available inventory days in China are presented [7] Cost and Profit - Related Information Silicon Ferrosilicon - Cost - related data includes electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials such as blue charcoal and silica dioxide [5] - Profit data includes production costs, profits from converting to the main futures contract, and spot profits in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5] Silicon Manganese - Cost - related data includes prices of raw materials such as chemical coke and manganese ore [6] - Profit data includes profits in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and different regions in China, as well as profits from converting to the main futures contract [7]

Report Overview Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. Report's Core View The reports present a comprehensive overview of the global oils and fats and oilseeds market, covering planting progress, production, imports, and price trends in major producing and consuming regions. Key factors influencing the market include weather conditions, price differentials between various oils, and demand fluctuations in major importing countries like India. Summary by Relevant Catalog Overnight Market Information - As of October 30, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate reached 47% of the expected area, lower than 54% in the same period last year and up from 36% the previous week. The planting rate of the first - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region was 60%, compared to 59% last year [1]. - Expana predicts that the EU's 2026/27 rapeseed planting area will reach 6.46 million hectares, a 7% increase from the current year and 11% above the five - year average, the highest since 2010/11. Sunflower and soybean planting areas for harvest in 2027 are also expected to increase. The organization maintains the current - year rapeseed production forecast at 20.4 million tons, a 20.9% increase from last year; sunflower seed production at 8.4 million tons, a 3.4% decrease; and soybean production at 3 million tons, a 3.2% decrease [1]. - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in October 2025 increased by 5.55% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield up 4.50% and oil extraction rate up 0.20% [1]. - India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - month low of 600,000 tons, a 27.6% month - on - month decrease. The 2024/25 market - year imports decreased by 16% to 7.56 million tons, the lowest in five years. Meanwhile, India's 2024/25 soybean oil imports soared 61.6% to a record 5.56 million tons, while sunflower oil imports decreased by 17.7% to 2.88 million tons. In October, India's total edible oil imports decreased by 20.7% month - on - month to 1.27 million tons, while the 2024/25 total imports increased by 0.3% to 16 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various oils and oilseeds in different regions of China from October 28 to November 3, 2025, are provided, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2]. Others - Information on protein meal basis, oils and fats basis, and oils and fats and oilseeds futures price spreads is mentioned, but no specific data is provided [3][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic trading atmosphere is expected to improve, and prices may rise slightly. However, the decline in CP official prices may limit the upward momentum of prices, despite the positive impact of the Sino - US tariff agreement on FEI and MB [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price Changes - On Monday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4297 (+18), in Shandong 4360 (+60), and in South China 4395 (-5). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4680 (+260). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 4 (+57), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 100 (+24). FEI was 518 (+1), and CP was 483 (-5) dollars/ton [1] - The main contract of IPG fluctuated upward. The basis was - 14 (+55), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 80 (-33). The cheapest delivery product was civil LPG in East China at 4279. The price in Shandong was 4300 (-60), in East China 4279 (+0), and in South China 4400 (-5). The price of ether - post carbon four in Shandong was 4420 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 4194 (+1778) [1] - The outer - market price increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The FEI month spread was - 5 (-1.75) dollars, and the CP month spread was - 14.4 (-6.4) dollars. The November CP official price dropped to 475/460 (-20/-15). The domestic and foreign PG - CP was 133 (-18); PG - FEI was 97 (-18.6). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. FEI - CP was 35.75 (+0.75). The arrival cost of propane in East China was 85 (+6) [1] Device Profits and Operating Rates - PDH profit decreased slightly, the profit of alkylation units declined significantly, and the production gross profit of MTBE changed little [1] - The PDH operating rate was 73.85% (+2.6 pct). Next week, Binhuahua will undergo maintenance, but Lihuayi Weiyuan will increase production, and Donghua Zhangjiagang will restart [1] Inventory and Demand - Domestic production decreased, imports increased, and port inventory rebounded, but there is an expected increase in chemical demand [1]

焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/4 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 周变化 | 月变化 | 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1537.01 | 0.00 | 54.61 | 109.23 | -18.60% | 高炉开工率 | 88.61 | | -1.33 | -2.04 | 0.15% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1790.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | 110.00 | -1.10% | 铁水日均产量 | 236.36 | | -3.54 | -5.45 | 0.38% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1715.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | 110.00 | -16.95% | 盘面05 | 1910 | -20.00 | 13.00 | 24.50 | -8.77% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1755.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | 110.00 | -16.63% | ...