能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 4 月 17 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4933 元/吨（-21），常州市场价 4820 元/吨（0），主力基差-113 元/吨（+21），广州市场价 4930 元/吨（-10）， 杭州市场价 4880 元/吨（0）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2450 （-50）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持 续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量持稳状态，内需季节性 恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。经过上周贸易 战激烈期后，当前宏观悲观情绪有所缓解，PVC 估值偏低，盘面存弱反 弹。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口和检 修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期，或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经 济预期继续恶化，盘面进一步承压。 ◆ 烧碱： 4 月 17 日烧碱主力 SH05 合约收 248 ...

2025 年 4 月 17 日 移仓换月 周度策略 长江期货研究咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 F03102085 Z0021210 zhangzh15@cjsc.com.cn 摘要 IF 跨月基差最优范围 IF 期现基差最优范围 一． 近期宏观分析： 研究员 张志恒 鲍威尔重申美联储先观望再行动，警告面临通胀和经济两难挑战， 否认要救市。一季度数据整体超预期，GDP 实际同比稳定在 5.4%，3 月供需两侧量的同比增长多数走强，反映经济韧性增强。在 4 月低基 数环境下，各项经济指标预计同比回落压力不大。经济的韧性主要缘 于 924 以来一揽子政策引发的量变，包括：耐用品销量走强；设备工 器具购置同比高增长；中下游带动上游生产提速。量变积极，但还未 看到质变：产能利用率偏低；价格持续偏弱；居民消费倾向转弱。 关税博弈仍多，股市成交缩量，市场向上动能不足，尽管短期经济 增长的同比表现很难成为政策发力的依据，但出口链产销环比转弱的 压力仍可作为政策靠前发力的充分条件，股指或震荡运行。可关注拜 访东盟多国后，是否会出激发市场情绪的大型声明与表态。 二． 最优换仓时间窗口如下表： | 观 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 鲍威尔重申美联储先观望再行动，警告面临通胀和经济两难挑战，否认要救 市。关税博弈仍多，中国与越南、马来西亚、柬埔寨的谈判或较顺利，中国 一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.4%，一季度经济数据较好，政策紧迫度较低。股市 成交缩量，市场向上动能不足，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 近期债券投资者的关注焦点从关税摩擦重新回到资金面以及基本面。周三公 布的较好的经济数据在一定程度上降低了短期出台大规模刺激的必要性和迫 切性，因此市场对数据反应平平，收益率甚至在数据公布后略有下行。整体 上债券市场短期面临的不利因素比较有限，在后续宽松预期的加持下仍处于 顺风期。但下行行情或许并非一蹴而就，在日复一日的市场波动中保持一颗 平常心，以配置的视角来发现债券价值、做债市的耐心资本更为可取。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 研究咨询部 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 研究员： 张志恒 从业编号：F03102085 投资咨询编号：Z002121 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are expected to move sideways, while treasury bonds are expected to rise sideways in the short term [1][5] - Black building materials: Rebar - temporarily wait and see; Iron ore - move weakly sideways; Coking coal and coke - move sideways [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper - trade within a range; Aluminum - wait and see; Nickel - wait and see or short on rallies; Tin - operate within a range; Gold - build positions on dips after sufficient price corrections; Silver - operate within a range [1][11][13] - Energy and chemicals: PVC - move sideways; Soda ash - hold short positions in call options; Caustic soda - move sideways; Rubber - move sideways; Urea - operate within a range; Methanol - operate within a range; Plastic - move sideways [1][19][25] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate violently; Apples - move strongly sideways; PTA - move weakly sideways [1][30][31] - Agricultural and livestock products: Hogs - move weakly sideways; Eggs - near - term contracts may see increased fluctuations, and short on rallies for far - term contracts; Corn - buy on dips; Soybean meal - weak in the near term and strong in the long term; Oils and fats - move strongly sideways [1][34][37] Core Views - The overall market is affected by factors such as tariff policies, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Tariff policies have a significant impact on various industries, causing market volatility and uncertainty. Economic data affects market expectations for policies, and supply - demand relationships determine the price trends of specific products [5][7][11] Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Index futures are expected to move sideways due to factors such as Powell's stance, tariff games, and lack of upward momentum in the stock market [5] - Treasury bonds are expected to rise sideways in the short term as the focus returns to the capital and fundamental aspects, and the bond market is in a favorable period with limited short - term negative factors [5] Black Building Materials - Rebar: The short - term market fluctuates around tariff policies. Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel exports is small, the indirect impact is relatively large. It is advisable to wait and see for now [7] - Iron ore: The price is expected to move weakly sideways. The supply is expected to increase while the demand may decline, but considering factors such as high hot metal production and potential macro - policy benefits, it may rebound slightly or maintain a sideways trend in the near term [7] - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal market is in a supply - demand game situation, and the coke market may continue to fluctuate under the support of rigid demand, but risks such as a decline in hot metal production need to be watched out for [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: After a sharp decline, it rebounds and is expected to move within a range. The long - term demand logic remains, but the medium - and long - term impact of tariffs may lower the market demand and the price center [11] - Aluminum: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply of the ore end is improving, the operating capacity of alumina is decreasing, and the demand of the downstream processing industry is weakening. The short - term macro uncertainty is high [13] - Nickel: It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The macro environment is not favorable, but the cost support at the ore end exists. The refined nickel and nickel iron are in an oversupply situation, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [14][15] - Tin: It is recommended to operate within a range. The supply of tin ore is tight, but Congo's tin mine is expected to resume production, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support the demand [16] - Gold and silver: It is recommended to build positions on dips after sufficient price corrections. The macro uncertainty is high, and factors such as central bank gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: It is expected to move sideways. The long - term demand is weak, the supply pressure is large, but the short - term macro pessimism has eased, and the valuation is low, with the possibility of a weak rebound [19] - Caustic soda: It is expected to move sideways. The current situation is a low - level sideways movement, with limited upside and downside space. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory changes and alumina production [21] - Rubber: It is expected to move sideways. The market is dominated by weak demand and supply increase pressure. The raw material at the domestic opening - cut stage has certain support, and the inventory shows a small - scale destocking trend [22] - Urea: It is recommended to operate within a range. The supply is stable, the demand for compound fertilizers is still at a high level, and the summer fertilizer demand is expected to support the price in the short term [25] - Methanol: It is recommended to operate within a range. The domestic production rate is high, the demand in some regions may decline slightly, and the price is supported by low inventory and suppressed by demand reduction [26] - Plastic: It is expected to move sideways at a low level. The supply pressure is large, the downstream demand is weak, but tariffs may provide some support to the market price [27] - Soda ash: It is recommended to hold short positions in call options. The supply is increasing, and although the demand has improved, the price is still under pressure [29] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy [30] - Apples: The price is expected to move strongly sideways as the inventory is low and the sales are good, but macro risks need to be watched out for [31] - PTA: It is expected to move weakly sideways. Although the supply - demand relationship is good and inventory is decreasing, the price is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in raw material costs and poor export orders [31][32] Agricultural and Livestock Products - Hogs: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the short term, it is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and in the long term, the supply pressure is large, especially in the second quarter [34] - Eggs: Near - term contracts may see increased fluctuations, and it is recommended to short on rallies for far - term contracts. The short - term price is supported by replenishment demand, but the long - term supply is expected to increase [35] - Corn: It is recommended to buy on dips. The short - term spot price is supported, and the long - term supply - demand relationship is tightening, but the upward space may be limited by substitutes [37] - Soybean meal: It is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. The short - term supply is expected to increase, but the long - term price is expected to rise due to factors such as the impact of tariffs on imports and potential supply reduction [37][38] - Oils and fats: It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up in the short term. The short - term market may rebound due to positive factors, but the long - term supply increase may lead to a price decline, followed by a possible strong sideways movement in the third quarter [43]

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 研究员： 曹雪梅 咨询电话：027-65777102 从业编号：F3051631 投资咨询编号：Z0015756 4 月 16 日 PVC 主力 05 合约收盘 4921 元/吨（-10），常州市场价 4820 元/吨（0），主力基差-101 元/吨（+10），广州市场价 4940 元/吨（0）， 杭州市场价 4880 元/吨（0）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2500 （-50）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持 续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量持稳状态，内需季节性 恢复，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。经过上周贸易战激烈期后，当前宏 观悲观情绪有所缓解，PVC 估值偏低，盘面存弱反弹。重点关注关税谈 判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口和 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content available. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton prices are under pressure to decline due to factors such as domestic over - capacity in the industrial chain, limited consumption growth, tariff policy adjustments, potential increases in cotton production in Xinjiang and Brazil, and the impact of Sino - US trade frictions [1]. - PTA prices are under pressure to decline mainly because of poor terminal weaving orders, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [3]. - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate and decline due to low international crude oil prices, the impact of tariff policies on imports, and weak market sentiment [4]. - Short - fiber prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak raw material prices and declining terminal textile demand [5]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, affected by factors such as short - term tight trade flow in the international sugar market, Brazilian production and weather conditions, and domestic import data and sales progress [7]. - Apple prices are expected to oscillate strongly as apple出库 is good and inventory is low, but macro risks need to be monitored [7]. Summary by Variety Cotton - Domestic cotton supply and demand are basically sufficient but may be slightly tight. About 60% of the sales pressure of Xinjiang ginning factories has been released, and 40% remains unpriced. Resources are concentrated in a few major traders [1]. - The external market is relatively weak, with the CFTC fund holding a net short position and the industry holding a net long position [1]. - In the second quarter, the situation is not optimistic. In the second half of the year, cotton production in Xinjiang may increase by 10%, and the new - year cotton output may reach 720 - 750 million tons. Brazilian cotton production is also increasing, which is bearish for cotton prices [1]. - On April 16, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,252 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the cotton yarn index was 20,520 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [11]. PTA - As of April 16, the PTA spot price dropped to 4,270 yuan/ton. The terminal weaving situation is weak, and the downstream polyester demand is weak. The spot basis has strengthened slightly, and the market transaction is mediocre [10]. - The PTA capacity utilization rate remained at 76.41%, and the polyester industry capacity utilization rate was 91.31%, down 0.12% from the previous day. The PTA de - stocking continued [3]. - The decline is mainly due to poor terminal weaving orders. As of the beginning of this week, the comprehensive starting rate of domestic major weaving production bases was 56.57%, down 2.34% from last week [3]. Ethylene Glycol - International crude oil prices are low, and cost support is poor. The tariff policy affects imports, and the number of arrivals is expected to decrease. Although short - term polyester start - up is okay, market sentiment is weak, and prices are expected to decline [4]. - China's ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate was 66.01%, up 0.31% month - on - month. The weekly output was 39.69 million tons, up 0.48% from last week [16]. Short - fiber - Raw material prices are weak, and terminal textile demand is expected to decline. The short - fiber market is difficult to have positive changes in the short term [5]. - As of the 10th, the domestic short - fiber weekly output was 15.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.26 million tons month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate average was 82.84%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month [14]. Sugar - In the international sugar market, short - term trade flow is tight, but with the start of the Brazilian sugar - making season and the increase in the sugar - making ratio, the ICE sugar price is expected to be weak in the short term [7]. - Domestically, imports have decreased year - on - year, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate and adjust. In the later stage, as consumption increases, the price may be boosted [7]. - In April , Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first two weeks were 632,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.37%. From January to March 2025, Ukraine's sugar imports were 230 tons, 37% of the same period in 2024, and exports were 152,620 tons, 72% of the same period in 2024 [15]. Apple - The overall apple inventory is low, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. However, macro risks need to be monitored [7]. - As of April 9, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 3.9863 million tons, a decrease of 389,000 tons from last week, and the de - stocking was accelerating year - on - year [17]. Macroeconomic Information - In the first quarter, the GDP was 31.8758 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.2% [11]. - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.094 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to March, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 12.4671 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [11]. - The US has increased tariffs on China, and China has stated its position on the tariff issue [11].

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 16 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约下跌 0.92%至 75260 元/吨。美 国对等关税政策超预期，中国随之全面反制，美挑起的关税战加大了全 球经济衰退的概率，各类资产遭受无差别抛售，重要大宗商品价格短期 重挫。随着中美关税已加无可加，边际影响减弱以及特朗普政策的反复， 铜价大幅反弹。基本面上，价格回落，下游企业逢低补库积极，订单增 长明显，国内库存下降表现较为明显。铜精矿供应也依旧紧张，现货 TC 继续在负值区间下探，再生铜采购难度也在加大，但副产品价格高位， 国内产出的预期依然较高。不过卫星监测数据显示，3 月全球铜冶炼活 动大幅下降，平均有 12.6%的产能处于闲置状态，高于 2 月的 8.8%。 其中，中国冶炼厂的闲置率上升 4.5 个百分点达到 9.6%。4 月供应或有 一定收缩。随着关税问题的持续影响，后续出口有减少趋势。整体上此 前国内供应偏紧的预期或有所转变。铜长期的需求逻辑仍在，炼厂仍面 临较大的原料保供和保本压力，短期基本面仍有韧性。但关税的中长期 影响将拉低铜市场需求，铜价重心或有下移可能。关税战持续，宏观因 素仍不断带来影响，下周沪铜维持 ...

◆ 铁矿石 周三，铁矿期货价格窄幅震荡。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 764 元/湿吨（- 6）。普氏 62%指数 98.95 美元/吨（-1.00），月均 99.84 美元/吨。PBF 基差 100 元/吨（-2）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,434.9 万 吨，环+41.7。45 港口+247 钢厂总库存 23,418.15 万吨，环-221.98。 247 家钢企铁水日产 240.22 万吨，环+1.49。关税摩擦升级更多地是在 宏观情绪层面导致市场悲观情绪蔓延。高铁水产量与低成材需求，原料 端的矛盾继续积累。随着建材需求见顶、板材需求因关税影响增速放缓， 铁矿石将进入供应增加而需求回落的预期阶段，远月预期更弱。综上， 考虑到铁水尚未出现见顶信号以及可能的宏观政策利好，预计近期将会 小幅反弹或维持震荡走势，铁矿 09 仍以反弹空思路看待。(数据来源： 同花顺 iFinD)。 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周三，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3150 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 20 元/吨，05 合约基差 127（+6），短期行情仍然围绕关税 政策上下 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 4 月 17 日辽宁现货 14.4-15 元/公斤，较上日稳定；河南 14.6-15.3 元/公 斤，较上日稳定；四川 14.5-14.9 元/公斤，较上日稳定；广东 15.1-15.6 元/公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价趋稳。4 月生猪供应增加，且生猪体重 偏高，目前肥标价差收缩，前期压栏以及二育养殖户出栏意愿增强，而终端 消费增量有限，屠企大多亏损，猪价上方承压。但行业有利润，规模企业多 控重出栏，且肥标价差仍为正，养殖端惜售、二次育肥逢低进场仍存以及中 央冻猪肉储备带动屠企分割入库需求，均支撑价格，短期猪价震荡整理，关 注企业出栏节奏、二育和屠宰冻品入库情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，4-9 月供应呈 增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度 出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局 下，猪价下跌风险加剧，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品入库以及饲料价 格波动对价格的扰动；12-1 月产能小幅下滑，2 月回升，接近均衡区间上 限，供应压力 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 报道称欧美贸易谈判陷入僵局，欧盟预计美国不会撤销对欧大部分关税。中 国与越南发布关于持续深化全面战略合作伙伴关系、加快构建具有战略意义 的中越命运共同体的联合声明。关税博弈仍多，中国与越南、马来西亚、柬 埔寨的谈判或较顺利，股市成交缩量，日内公布一季度 GDP 等重要数据，股 指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 经历了今年一季度的行情后，尽管眼下对货币宽松的呼声较高，但在当前资 金利率水平和理性的资金预期下，短端品种的下行仍然并非一蹴而就，市场 往往在中性和过度乐观中来回摇摆。经历了此前关税摩擦反转再反转的高波 行情后，债市整体进入了更为冷静的震荡期，投资者的关注焦点也重新回到 资金面以及基本面。震荡行情中，节奏或许比方向本身更为重要，对区间上 下沿以及行情空间的把握也就显得更为关键。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 研究员： 张志恒 从业编号：F03102085 投资咨询编号：Z0 ...