长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-04-21 01 尿素：夏季肥采购临近 短期或偏强震荡 02 甲醇：内地港口库存双增 延续区间震荡 目 录 01 核心观点总结 02 尿素：夏季肥采购临近 短期或偏强震荡 01 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 1 市场变化：上周尿素厂家新收订单减少，报价大幅下调，后成交有所回升，整体市场先弱后稳 。4月18日尿素 2509合约收盘价1773元/吨，较上周下调48元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1836元/吨，较上周下调58元/吨，山 东市场日均价1853元/吨，较上周下调50元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端尿素开工负荷率84.81%，较上周降低0.88个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率69.13%，较上 周上调1.03个百分点，尿素日均产量小幅回落至19.29万吨。成本端无烟煤市场交投不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish outlook for the plastics industry [4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The future outlook for plastics is weak, with a cautious and bearish stance. The plastics 2509 contract closed at 7,143 yuan/ton on April 18, down 109 yuan/ton from the previous week. Spot prices of plastics declined across the board. In the second quarter, the domestic PE market is expected to face significant supply pressure due to planned new capacity of 2.15 million tons. Downstream demand is generally weak, with a sharp decline in the agricultural film sector as the peak season ends, and mediocre demand in the packaging film and pipe sectors. Inventory remains neutral, with no obvious de - stocking trend and low willingness among downstream players to replenish inventory at low prices. However, tariffs may provide some support to market prices. It is expected that the plastics 2505 contract will fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic Weekly Market Review - On April 18, the plastics 2509 contract closed at 7,143 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton from the previous week. The market fluctuated at the bottom this week, and the trade war brought great uncertainty, intensifying market fluctuations. LLDPE's South China basis reached 694.65 yuan/ton, a 15.71% increase from the previous week, and the May - September spread was 168 yuan/ton (up 69). Spot prices of plastics declined across the board, with the LDPE average price at 9,166.67 yuan/ton, a 1.08% decrease from the previous week, the HDPE average price at 8,140.00 yuan/ton, a 0.88% decrease, and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China at 7,837.65 yuan/ton, a 0.19% decrease [4][8] 3.2 Key Data Tracking - Month Spread | Month Spread | April 18, 2025 (yuan/ton) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 - 5 | -230 | -48 | | 5 - 9 | 168 | 69 | | 9 - 1 | 62 | -21 | [15] 3.3 Key Data Tracking - Spot Price - Spot prices of various plastics products showed different degrees of decline. For example, the LDPE average price decreased by 1.08%, the HDPE average price decreased by 0.88%, and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China decreased by 0.19%. Specific prices and changes in different regions and product categories are detailed in the report [4][8][16] 3.4 Key Data Tracking - Cost - This week, WTI crude oil closed at $63.75 per barrel, up $2.27 from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $67.85 per barrel, up $3.26 from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,020 yuan/ton (down 20). It is expected that the crude oil market will maintain a low - level fluctuating trend, and the coal market price has slightly increased [19] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - Profit - The profit of oil - based PE was - 33 yuan/ton, down 249 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 1,237 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous week. It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE and coal - based PE will run weakly [22] 3.6 Key Data Tracking - Supply - This week, the operating rate of China's polyethylene production was 83.81%, up 0.17 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly polyethylene output was 633,500 tons, a 0.88% increase from the previous week. The maintenance loss this week was 91,900 tons, down 3,900 tons from the previous week. Some enterprises' devices are under maintenance, and there are many planned new capacity projects in 2025 [25][27] 3.7 Key Data Tracking - 2025 Production Plan - Many enterprises have new production capacity plans in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 5.43 million tons. Some projects have already started production, some are in the process of starting up, and others are scheduled to start at different times throughout the year [27] 3.8 Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics - Several enterprises carried out device maintenance this week, such as Baolai LyondellBasell's HDPE device from April 14 to April 20, and Daqing Petrochemical's LLDPE device which stopped on April 16 with an undetermined restart time [28] 3.9 Key Data Tracking - Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 30.09%, down 7.45% from the previous week; the operating rate of PE packaging film was 47.56%, down 0.51% from the previous week; and the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.50%, down 0.17% from the previous week. The peak season of agricultural film is coming to an end, with an expected further decline, and the operating performance of packaging film and pipes is mediocre due to weak downstream demand [29] 3.10 Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio - Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 36.1%, which is 2% different from the annual average level. The ratio of low - pressure pipes shows a significant difference from the annual average data, currently accounting for 6%, a 4.2% difference from the annual average [34] 3.11 Key Data Tracking - Inventory - This week, the social inventory of plastics enterprises was 616,000 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [36] 3.12 Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts - This week, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 1,565 lots, an increase of 939 lots from the previous week [44]

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-4-21 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员：洪润霞 执业编号: F0260331 投资咨询号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号: F0270997 投资咨询号:Z0002826 联系人：钟 舟 执业编号: F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号: F3033495 震荡偏弱 01 周度观点 长江期货纸浆产业周报 02 行情回顾 数据来源：博易大师、IFIND、长江期货 1 整体观点：近期海外纸浆持续到港，市场木浆供应相对充足。中国木浆进口依存度高，据海关总署数据，美国、加拿 大、芬兰是中国进口针叶浆主要贸易伙伴，因此后市中美贸易关税调整对针叶浆影响较为明显。当前下游原纸行业相 对淡季，季节性规律下，市场需求放量相对有限，浆价上行动能欠佳，现货市场仍维持低成交量运行。而市场对高价 木浆接受度不高，企业原料询单心态谨慎，牵制浆价难有上行预期。库存量呈现累库走势，主港库存连续四周去库后， 转为小幅累库的走势，整体库存数量变动不大。近期宏观市场波动较大，且下游需求较弱，虽然有外盘挺价，预期价 格难以坚挺，预计继续震荡偏弱。 2 风险因素：市场消 ...

长江期货苹果产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-4-21 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员：洪润霞 执业编号: F0260331 投资咨询号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号: F0270997 投资咨询号:Z0002826 联系人：钟 舟 执业编号: F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号: F3033495 高位震荡 01 周度观点 1 整体观点：本周继续处于传统销售旺季，冷库走货速度有所加快，客商返回产区补货积极性较高，各类货源交易活跃。 从库存情况看，库存余量降至五年低位，西部客商货成交顺畅，库内包装发货较多。山东低价货源成交增多，好货少 量交易。从价格方面看，周内苹果价格稳中偏强，个别产区价格较前小幅上涨。从销区情况看，目前市场到车稳定， 整体走货尚可。各产区新季苹果陆续进入花期，西部整体花量表现充足。当前苹果交割博弈加剧，盘面波动加大，短 期来看预计近月期现货价格偏乐观看待，但新季苹果价格难料。 2 风险因素：市场消费情况、宏观政策因素 02 行情回顾 Ø 本周苹果主力剧烈震荡运行。 Ø 苹果基差167元，较上周-113。 数据来源：博易大师、IFI ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 17 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 0.3%至 75780 元/吨。美国 对等关税政策超预期，中国随之全面反制，美挑起的关税战加大了全球 经济衰退的概率，各类资产遭受无差别抛售，重要大宗商品价格短期重 挫。随着中美关税已加无可加，边际影响减弱以及特朗普政策的反复， 铜价大幅反弹。基本面上，价格回落，下游企业逢低补库积极，订单增 长明显，国内库存下降表现较为明显。铜精矿供应也依旧紧张，现货 TC 继续在负值区间下探，再生铜采购难度也在加大，但副产品价格高位， 国内产出的预期依然较高。不过卫星监测数据显示，3 月全球铜冶炼活 动大幅下降，平均有 12.6%的产能处于闲置状态，高于 2 月的 8.8%。 其中，中国冶炼厂的闲置率上升 4.5 个百分点达到 9.6%。4 月供应或有 一定收缩。随着关税问题的持续影响，后续出口有减少趋势。整体上此 前国内供应偏紧的预期或有所转变。铜长期的需求逻辑仍在，炼厂仍面 临较大的原料保供和保本压力，短期基本面仍有韧性。但关税的中长期 影响将拉低铜市场需求，铜价重心或有下移可能。关税战持续，宏观因 素仍不断带来影响，沪铜维持宽幅偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report gives a "short - term bullish" rating for treasury bonds and suggests that stock indices will "oscillate" [2][3] 2. Core Views - **Stock Indices**: Tariff threats drag down the economic outlook, and the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Although the short - term fundamentals are okay, considering the pressure from the weakening export - chain production and sales, policies may be advanced. Stock indices may oscillate. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale statements and stances to boost market sentiment will be issued after visits to ASEAN countries [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a situation where long - term positives conflict with the lack of further short - term positives. The selling pressure in the short - term market increases, and it's hard to predict when the current bond market pattern will be broken. Attention should be paid to relative value opportunities in bond types and yield curves [2] 3. Market Review - **Stock Indices**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.90%, SSE 50 rose 0.82%, CSI 500 rose 0.47%, and CSI 1000 rose 1.06% [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.15%, 0.14%, 0.49%, and 0.08% respectively [6] 4. Technical Analysis - **Stock Indices**: The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market oscillates with a slight upward bias [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract oscillates with a slight upward bias [7] 5. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/17 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3710.60 | 0.90 | 55799 | 141593 | | 2025/04/17 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2633.60 | 0.82 | 28211 | 44853 | | 2025/04/17 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5551.20 | 0.47 | 34523 | 21987 | | 2025/04/17 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5653.80 | 1.06 | 156019 | 168300 | | 2025/04/17 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.99 | - 0.15 | 62639 | 193114 | | 2025/04/17 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.25 | - 0.14 | 47316 | 171023 | | 2025/04/17 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.44 | - 0.49 | 93722 | 106359 | | 2025/04/17 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.49 | - 0.08 | 31161 | 112255 | [9] 6. Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends, price - to - earnings ratios, trading volumes, open interests, basis rates, and inter - delivery spreads of stock index futures and treasury bond futures, with data sources from iFinD and the research and consulting department of Yangtze River Futures [10][14][17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, while treasury bonds are expected to rise slightly [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore is expected to weaken, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for range trading, aluminum for observation, nickel for observation or short - selling on rallies, tin for range operation, gold for buying on dips after full price correction, and silver for range operation [1][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are expected to fluctuate; a short position in call options for soda ash is recommended [1][22]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen, and PTA is expected to weaken [1][31]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range, eggs are expected to weaken, corn is recommended for buying on dips, soybean meal is expected to be weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][34]. Core Viewpoints - The global economic situation is complex, with trade frictions, policy uncertainties, and supply - demand imbalances affecting various futures markets. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals and macro - environment [5][8][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as tariff games, shrinking stock trading volume, and weakening export - chain production and sales, the market lacks continuous upward momentum. Although the short - term fundamentals are okay, policies may be advanced. Index futures may fluctuate. Attention can be paid to whether there will be large - scale statements to stimulate the market after visits to ASEAN countries [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a situation where long - term benefits and short - term full pricing without further benefits coexist. There is selling pressure in the short - term, and the pattern is difficult to predict. Attention can be paid to relative value opportunities [7]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The futures price fluctuates. Although the steel demand data is good and the inventory reduction speed is accelerating, the impact of tariffs on exports is relatively large. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to increase while the demand is expected to decline. Considering factors such as high hot metal production and possible macro - policy benefits, it may rebound slightly or fluctuate in the near - term. It is recommended to short on rebounds [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, production is restricted by safety inspections, and demand is weak. For coke, production is stable, and demand is supported by high hot metal production but is affected by export expectations. Both are expected to fluctuate [10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the tariff war, the price has rebounded after a sharp decline. The short - term fundamentals are still resilient, but the long - term demand may be affected. It is recommended for range trading [12]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is improving, the production capacity of alumina is decreasing, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The demand is weakening, and the price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. - **Nickel**: Affected by the US tariff policy and the cost of nickel ore, the price has fallen. The supply of refined nickel and nickel iron is in excess, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, but the resumption of production in Congo is expected. The downstream semiconductor industry is recovering. It is recommended for range operation [19]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US tariff policy, market uncertainties increase, and the price fluctuates. It is recommended to wait for the price to fully correct before building positions [19][21]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The long - term demand is weak, the supply is excessive, and the inventory is high. Recently, the inventory has decreased, and the price may have a weak rebound. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, the demand increment is limited, and the price increase is not sustainable. Attention should be paid to delivery volume, inventory, and alumina production [23]. - **Rubber**: The demand is weak, the supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on demand and the situation after the start of tapping [25]. - **Urea**: The supply is stable, the demand for compound fertilizers is high, and the summer fertilizer demand may support the price. It is recommended for range operation [27]. - **Methanol**: The domestic production is at a high level, the import is expected to recover, the demand is weak, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [27]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, oil prices, and tariff games [28]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, the demand is improving, but the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [30]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: Affected by Trump's tariff policy, the supply and demand of global cotton are expected to increase slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. - **Apples**: The inventory is low, the sales are good, and the price is expected to strengthen, but macro - risks should be noted [32]. - **PTA**: The cost has collapsed due to factors such as the US tariff policy, and the price is under pressure. Although the supply and demand are good, the price is not optimistic [33]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is increasing and postponed, the price rebound is under pressure, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [35][36]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the price is supported by replenishment demand, but the supply is sufficient. In the long - term, the supply will increase. It is recommended to short on rebounds [37]. - **Corn**: The short - term price is supported, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening, but the price increase space is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [38][39]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, the supply is tight in some areas, but it will be abundant from May to July. In the long - term, the price is expected to rise. It is recommended for range operation in the near - term and long - position building in the long - term [39][40]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short - term, the price may rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long - term, the price may decline in the second quarter and strengthen in the third quarter. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up and stop the spread - widening strategy for rapeseed - palm oil [45].

国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手），未点价，想 接货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双 方会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。对等关税政策调整，除了中国，美国宣布 对大部分国家暂停 90 天关税，并且在此期间大幅降低"对等关税"至 10%，目前中美博弈进入激烈阶段，面对出口严峻的形势，认为 4 月开 始进入压力冲击阶段，二季度不乐观。到了下半年，我们要面对几个变 数，一是新疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉 花，其他种植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新 年度棉花丰产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term steel market fluctuates around tariff policies. Although the current steel demand data is good and the inventory reduction speed is accelerating, the direct and indirect exports of steel will be affected by tariff policies. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - The iron ore market is affected by the escalation of tariff friction, with the contradiction between high iron - water production and low finished - product demand continuing to accumulate. It is expected to rebound slightly or remain volatile in the near term, and the 09 contract should be considered from the perspective of shorting on rebounds [1]. - The coking coal price may maintain a weak and stable trend, and attention should be paid to the profit repair rhythm of downstream steel enterprises, the recovery strength of terminal demand, and changes in import coal customs clearance policies [3]. - The coke market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in iron - water production and the impact of the realization of terminal steel demand on the price rebound height [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Steel - **Price and Basis**: On Thursday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 05 contract was 138 (+11) [1]. - **Demand and Export**: The current steel apparent demand data is good, and the inventory reduction speed is accelerating. In 2024, China's steel exports to the US were 890,000 tons, accounting for only 0.8% of the total export volume. However, the indirect exports were about 140 million tons last year, with over 10 million tons exported to the US, and some re - exports were also affected [1]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price and Basis**: On Thursday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated narrowly. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 762 yuan/wet ton (-2). The Platts 62% index was 99.9 US dollars/ton (+0.95), and the monthly average was 99.84 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 100 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.349 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 417,000 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 234.1815 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2198 million tons. The daily output of molten iron of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4012 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons. With the peak of building material demand and the slowdown of plate demand growth due to tariffs, iron ore is expected to enter a stage of increasing supply and falling demand [1]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to rebound slightly or remain volatile in the near term, and the 09 contract should be considered from the perspective of shorting on rebounds [1]. 3.3 Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main domestic production areas are restricted by safety inspections, and the overall capacity release rhythm is slow. The Mongolian port clearance volume fluctuates and declines, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious [3]. - **Demand**: The coke enterprise start - up rate has rebounded, but it mainly consumes the previous inventory. Steel mills maintain a rigid procurement rhythm, and the market trading atmosphere is cold [3]. - **Policy**: Macroeconomic policies continue to suppress the black - series industry chain, and the long - term export demand is expected to weaken [3]. 3.4 Coke - **Supply**: After the first price increase, the loss pressure of coke enterprises has been alleviated, and the production rhythm has become stable [4]. - **Demand**: The high molten - iron production of steel mills supports rigid demand, but some steel mills start to control the arrival rhythm due to the uncertainty of terminal demand [4]. - **Policy**: The long - term export expectation is weakened by the intensification of foreign trade frictions, which suppresses market confidence [4]. 3.5 Industry News - **Production Data**: In March, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.298 million, a year - on - year increase of 40.6%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 3.159 million, a year - on - year increase of 45.4%. The production of air conditioners in March was 33.712 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 74.458 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. The production of washing machines in March was 11.002 million, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 29.564 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% [6]. - **Housing Policy**: Qingdao plans to acquire more than 1,200 second - hand personal housing units for affordable rental housing and long - term rental housing [6]. - **Business Policy**: Shanghai encourages private enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions for industrial upgrading and supports private listed companies in market - value management [6]. - **Corporate Investment**: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. plans to invest 9 billion yuan to acquire a 35.42% stake in Magang Co., Ltd. and increase capital, with the shareholding ratio reaching 49% after the transaction [6]. - **Trade Negotiation**: China's Ministry of Commerce maintains communication with the US and is open to trade consultations [6].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 4 月 18 日辽宁现货 14.5-15.1 元/公斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.6- 15.4 元/公斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.5-14.9 元/公斤，较上日稳 定；广东 15.1-15.6 元/公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价北涨南稳。4 月生 猪供应增加，且生猪体重偏高，目前肥标价差收缩，前期压栏以及二育养殖 户出栏意愿增强，而终端消费增量有限，屠企大多亏损，猪价上方承压。但 行业有利润，规模企业多控重出栏，且肥标价差仍为正，养殖端惜售、二次 育肥逢低进场仍存以及中央冻猪肉储备带动屠企分割入库需求，均支撑价 格，短期猪价震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育和屠宰冻品入库情况。中 长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平 稳情况下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费 淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价下跌风险加剧，关注二育介入造成供应后 移、冻品入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；12-1 月产能小幅下滑 ...