玻璃：需求仍偏弱，预防宏观事件扰动 纯碱：基本面偏空，轻仓参与 正信期货玻璃纯碱周报 20240623 首席研究员：徐婧 投资咨询编号：Z0012091 Email: xujing@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 首席研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号： Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel： 027-68851659 1、纯碱内容要点 | 因素 | 因素综述 | 驱动方向 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 上周纯碱产量75.37万吨（+1.36，+1.80%)，其中轻碱产量33.84万吨（+0.41），重碱产量41.53万吨（+0.95）。纯碱开 | 中性 | | | 工率86.46%（+1.56%），其中氨碱86.57%（+6.53%），联产80.59%（-0.47%）。 | | | 需求 | 上周纯碱企业出货量为71.43万吨，环比上周+4.92%；纯碱整体产销率为94.65%，环比上周+2.61%。上周纯碱需求略有转 | 中性 | | | 弱，下游企业以刚需拿货为主。下周浮法预期略有增量，光伏玻璃有减量预期。5月纯碱进口0.15万吨， ...

正信期货聚酯周报 20250623 作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 PTA：地缘冲突加剧，PTA跟随成本波动为主 MEG：中东冲突扰动EG进口，短期偏强运行 数据来源：WIND,隆众 成本端：地缘扰动加剧，国际原油短期上涨为主。PX方面，PX供需基本面向好，维持去库，若原油继续 上涨，PX绝对价格有望继续上扬。 供应端：PTA：下周，福海创有检修计划，PTA产量持续下降。乙二醇：下周来看供应端国产量提升，进 口货微降，总供应预计稳中小增加，但中东局势扰动下，进口担忧明显。 需求端：下周聚酯装置存负荷下滑预期，华润多个基地计划减产2成。纺织服装行业渐入淡季，当前电商 平台仍有零散订单支撑，但坯布市场整体销售明显放缓，工厂库存压力持续加大，需求端持续低迷，部 分企业存在降负预期。订单方面，淡季影响持续深入，品牌订单较前期出现下滑，仅有少量秋冬打样订 单，厂家对于后市预期不尽乐观，后市来看，整体开机率趋弱。 策略：PTA：地缘局势不确定性较强放大油价波动，PTA新投装置投 ...

纸浆：高库存继续常态化，浆价宽幅震荡为主 正信期货纸浆周报 20250623 研究员：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 供应端：上周纸浆产量为48.29万吨，环比增加0.09万吨，环比增幅0.19%，其中阔叶浆产量20.9万吨、化 机浆产量19.9万吨；预计本周国产阔叶浆产量约21.0万吨，化机浆产量约20.1万吨。 需求端：生活用纸市场，部分纸企库存压力增大，出货受限，开工变动不大，预计本周生活用纸产量约 27.5万吨；双胶纸市场，工厂生产稍有恢复，部分季节性订单少量供纸，预期本周双胶纸产量约19.8万吨； 铜版纸市场，少量季节性订单供货中，开工变化不大，预计本周铜版纸产量约7.7万吨；白卡纸市场，有停 机纸厂恢复生产，产量将有所增加，预计本周白卡纸产量约30.0万吨。 库存端：国内港口库存呈累库走势，库存量为220.8万吨，环比累库2.3万吨（或+1.1%），其中青岛港库 存量135.8万吨，环比累库1.6万吨（或+1.19%）；预计本周纸浆港口库存量约222万吨，将继 ...

原油：伊以冲突爆发，油价触及涨停 正信期货原油周报 20250616 研究员：付馨苇 投资咨询编号：Z0022192 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 目 录 CONTENTS 原油价格分析 1 2 原油供应端分析 3 原油需求端分析 4 原油库存端分析 5 原油供需平衡总结 PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: As of the end of May, China's broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Narrow money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. In the first five months, net cash investment was 30.64 billion yuan [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, zinc prices continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical events had little impact on zinc prices. In June, the downstream entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of social inventories. In terms of fundamentals, the cyclical supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans. The recovery of global zinc ore production has led to a continuous marginal strengthening of zinc ore spot TC. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and maintenance has been postponed. The output of refined zinc has marginally recovered, and the production increase situation in the ore and smelting ends is expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there is a hidden worry of contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate maintains resilience, there is no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, and it will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated to be optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [6]. - **Strategy**: In the short and medium term, due to the low level of social inventories, the monthly spread is still wide, and the back structure is deep, supporting the near - month contracts. However, with the continuous recovery of the smelting end, the high premium is expected to be temporary. In terms of strategy, short positions can still be considered for far - month contracts when prices are high [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Fundamentals - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In March 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0184 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%. The international long - term TC price of zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and was halved compared with the previous year. Overseas high - cost smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was seriously overestimated, and the trend of marginal loosening of zinc ore supply has not changed [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to April, China's cumulative import of zinc concentrate was 1.7137 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.5%. The increase in imported ore volume boosted the processing fees. As of June 13, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $53/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,600 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, the profits of smelters have been continuously improved [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In March 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1219 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.91%. In May 2025, China's refined zinc output was 550,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. As profits recover, output is gradually increasing [18]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to April 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 120,000 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. 3.2 Industry Fundamentals - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In April, China's galvanized sheet output was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.64%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Infrastructure and Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [27]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Automobiles and Home Appliances**: In May 2025, China's automobile output was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [30]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: At low prices, downstream enterprises made excessive purchases to replenish inventories, and social inventories continued to decline. As the off - season approaches, the inflection point of social inventories is approaching [32]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of June 13, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount of zinc was reported at a discount of $22.95/ton. Due to the low level of social inventories, the spot premium was high [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of June 6, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 11,086 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [38].

Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (2025-06-16): Supply-Demand Structure Weakens, Black Market in Weak Oscillation [1] Research Team - Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center, Black Industry Group [2] - Researchers: Xie Chen, Yang Hui [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - The supply-demand structure of steel products continues to weaken this week, and it is expected that the black market will remain in a weak operation overall. Maintain a bearish view and cash in some profits when a new low is reached [7]. - Last week, the supply of iron ore improved, demand continued to slow down, and the supply-demand pattern weakened overall. This week, it may still trade on the logic of inventory accumulation of building materials in the off-season, and ore prices will remain in a weak operation. Maintain a shorting strategy, add short positions moderately on rebounds, and hold them in the medium term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Last week, rebar was still operating at a low level below 3000, and the market sentiment remained weak. The 10 - contract fell 6 to close at 2969. The spot price oscillated, with rebar in East China reported at 3080 yuan/ton, down 40 week - on - week [12]. 1.2 Supply - The output of blast furnaces decreased slightly, and electric furnaces continued to cut production. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased for five consecutive weeks. The average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. Short - process steel mills still face large - scale losses, and production cuts are expected to continue. Rebar production decreased, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 4.1 tons to 324.7 tons week - on - week [18][21][25]. 1.3 Demand - Building material demand decreased month - on - month, and the domestic demand for plates also weakened. The capital availability rate of construction sites decreased, and the actual demand for building materials decreased significantly due to the off - season and bad weather. The domestic demand for hot - rolled coils may decline faster in the consumption off - season, and the manufacturing industry faces increasing downward pressure [28][32]. 1.4 Profit - The profit of long - process steel remained at a high level, while the profit of electric furnaces continued to decline. The profit of long - process building materials was around 70 - 100, and the profit of hot - rolled coils was around 150 - 200. As of the 13th, the national average profit of short - process was - 124 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was - 21 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton day - on - day [36]. 1.5 Inventory - The inventory reduction speed of building materials was average, and the inventory of plates continued to accumulate. Rebar social and steel mill inventories decreased, while hot - rolled coil factory and social inventories increased [39][43]. 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar narrowed significantly. The current rebar 10 basis is 101, narrowing 54 from last week. Continue to hold reverse arbitrage positions and pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity around 80 [48]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread narrowed by 3 to 1, and the inverted situation was completely reversed. The near - month contract faces off - season pressure, and the far - month contract also faces trade conflict interference. The price difference is expected to fluctuate around par [52]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has no obvious driving force to continue narrowing. The current futures spread is 113, narrowing 4 from last week, and the spot spread is 90, remaining the same as last week. The spread is at a neutral level, and no operation is recommended [55]. 2. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Iron ore prices oscillated downward, and the futures price rebounded at a low level. Last week, iron ore oscillated weakly, the 09 contract fell 4.5 to close at 703, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port fell 13 to 720 yuan/ton [60]. 2.2 Supply - The shipments from Australia and Brazil were flat, and the arrivals continued to increase. The global iron ore shipments in the current period were 3510.4 tons, up 79 tons week - on - week. The arrivals at 47 ports increased, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past three years [63][69]. 2.3 Demand - The rigid demand decreased as blast furnace output declined, and the speculative demand also decreased as port transactions declined. The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 241.61 tons/day, down 0.19 tons/day week - on - week. The daily average port transaction volume was 94.9 tons, down 2 tons week - on - week [72][75]. 2.4 Inventory - Port inventory increased, and downstream inventory also increased. The inventory at 47 ports increased by 103 tons to 14503.14 tons, and the inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills increased by 130.63 tons [78][81]. 2.5 Shipping - The freight from Brazil to China increased. The freight from Western Australia to China was 10.3 dollars/ton, remaining basically the same, while the freight from Brazil to China was 26.3 dollars/ton, up 1.8 dollars/ton week - on - week [84]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore narrowed slightly, and the basis also decreased. The 9 - 1 spread was 33, narrowing 3 from last week, and the 09 contract discount was 35, narrowing 6 from last week [86].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Short - term weakness, beware of macro - event disturbances [1] - Soda Ash: Bearish fundamentals, recommend light - position participation [1] 2. Core Views - Soda Ash: Demand is relatively stable, but supply is gradually increasing. With high inventory and the expectation of new capacity coming online, the overall situation is one of supply - demand surplus. Maintain a bearish view, but trade with a light position due to the relatively low price level [4] - Glass: Inventory accumulation has slightly decreased, demand remains weak before the rainy season, and recent macro risks have increased significantly. Attention should be paid to short - term risk prevention [41] 3. Soda Ash Summary 3.1 Price - Spot prices are weak this week, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remains stable. In the mainstream trading areas, North China heavy soda ash is 1400 (-50), and East China heavy soda ash is 1375 (-25). The national average price of heavy soda ash is 1350, and that of light soda ash is 1318, with a price difference of +33 (-1) [5] - Futures prices declined. The closing price of the main SA2509 contract is 1156 (-56), the 9 - 1 spread is +3 (-11), and the basis of the main 09 contract is +165 (+32) (using the national average price of heavy soda ash) [10] 3.2 Supply - Last week, soda ash production was 70.41 tons (+1.90, +2.70%), including 32.19 tons of light soda ash (+0.66) and 38.22 tons of heavy soda ash (+1.24). The operating rate was 80.76% (+2.19%), with the ammonia - soda method at 79.3% (+7.89%) and the combined - soda method at 80.41% (+3.87%) [4][16] 3.3 Demand - Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 68.56 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25%; the overall production - sales ratio was 92.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.58%. Demand slightly weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid needs. Next week, float glass production is expected to increase slightly, while photovoltaic glass production is expected to decrease. In April, soda ash imports were 0.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 tons; exports were 17.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.51 tons, with a decrease in net exports [4][25] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, soda ash enterprise inventory was 168.63 tons (+5.93, +3.64%), including 81.13 tons of light soda ash inventory (+2.13) and 87.50 tons of heavy soda ash inventory (+3.80). Both light and heavy soda ash inventories increased [4][32] 3.5 Cost - Profit - Last week, the profit of the combined - soda method (double - ton) was 139.5 yuan/ton (-38.5); the profit of the ammonia - soda method was +20.70 yuan/ton (-29.2), showing a slight overall decrease [4][38] 4. Glass Summary 4.1 Price - Spot prices were stable with a weakening trend last week. The ex - factory price of Wuhan Changli's 5mm glass was 1100 (-0), and that of Shahe Anquan's 5mm glass was 1056 (-20), with a price difference of +44 (+20) [42] - The main 2509 contract closed at 996 (-21), the 9 - 1 spread was -59 (-2), and the basis of the main 09 contract was +124 (+21) (using the ex - factory price of Wuhan Changli as the spot benchmark) [41][48] 4.2 Supply - Last week, the daily production of float glass in operation was 15.57 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70%. Float glass production was 109.12 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61%. The operating rate was 75.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75%. There were 297 domestic glass production lines after excluding zombie lines, with 224 in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut down [41][53] 4.3 Demand - As of the end of May, the order days of deep - processing enterprises were 10.35 days, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous period. The resumption of production of tempering enterprises was slow. The recovery trend at the end of the real estate sector has significantly weakened, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.9% in the completion end from January to April, and the willingness for new construction at the front end remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.8% from January to April. According to CAAM data, in May, automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 1.15% and 3.71% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 11.68% and 11.13% respectively, which is at a relatively high level in recent years [41][63] 4.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.685 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10%. Inventory decreased slightly in North China and East China, while it increased in other regions [41][71] 4.5 Cost - Profit - Last week, the profit of coal - gas - made float glass was +80.72 yuan/ton (-10.24); the profit of natural - gas - made float glass was -182.83 yuan/ton (-12.15); the profit of petroleum - coke - made float glass was -128.47 yuan/ton (-17.17). The industry profit decreased slightly in the short term [41][84]

正信期货铜周报20250616 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 内容要点 宏观层面：本周铜价高位回落走势，价格在79500一线遇阻，现货升水承压，社库去化放缓 。尽管美国对钢铝再度提高关税至50%，引发对232调查还未落地的铜的关税预期走强，但从 COMEX铜与LME铜价差表现来看，力度并未有前一次剧烈，我们认为该驱动不足以持续驱动盘面 上涨。当前美国经济正等待"硬数据"观点，制造业一端回落，关注就业情况变化。美联储过 去三次降息从动机上看均为"预防式降息" ，但利率仍然处于限制性水平，而从近期美联储给 到的预期管理来看，有概率使得下一次降息成为"衰退式降息" ，这还要通过不断地"硬数据 "来给到是否有衰退风险的加强信号。 产业基本面：从铜目前的基本面来看，原料供给导致的精炼加工费低廉问题依然严峻，但这 仍然没有限制到精铜实际产出，5月精铜产量再创新高。国内需求季节性转淡，铜材开工率下 滑，社库进一步去化动能减弱，目前铜基本面主要集中国际贸易的博弈，美铜价格的虹吸效应 使得LME铜库存不断去化。 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张杰夫 投资咨 ...

有色金属套利周报20250616 研究员：张杰夫 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 投资咨询号:Z0016959 2 第一部分：周度价格表现回顾与资金流动情况 第二部分：有色金属库存与利润情况 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 套利策略 | | 品 种 | 策 略 | | 核心观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求缺乏亮点 ， 内外锌矿山投产周期影响 ， | 基本面压力逐步累积 受国 。 锌矿供给将周期 | | | | | | | 供 | | | | | | ， | ， | | | | | | 需平衡倾向于向过剩端移动 ， | 建议逢低滚动 | | | | | | 国内精炼锌产出明显恢复 ， | 年内全球新投产 | | | | | | 锌矿项目有望逐步释放增量 ， | 而铝社库偏低 | | | 跨品种 | 铝&锌 | 多铝空锌 | | | | | | | | 对价格存有支撑 基本面强于锌 ， ， 滚动参与 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA is expected to move up with the cost center in the short - term as international crude oil rises significantly, new PTA plants are put into operation and increase load gradually, domestic supply is expected to rise, and there is an expectation of polyester load reduction during the terminal seasonal off - season [6]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to rebound and repair in the short - term as the cost side moves up, some maintenance devices restart, imports may be affected by geopolitical factors, and there is a strong expectation of turning from weak to strong in supply - demand [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Price Movement**: Due to the smooth progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks, the continuation of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the US, and the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation, oil prices have risen significantly. As of June 13, the Asian PX closing price was at 854 US dollars/ton CFR China, up 36 US dollars/ton from May 30. However, the absolute price increase of PX was less than that of crude oil because multiple PX plants restarted and the downstream polyester performance was not ideal [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic PX was 87.27%, a week - on - week increase of 3.83%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 75.29%, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. It is expected that next week's PX output will increase slightly compared with this week [20]. - **Processing Fee**: As of June 13, the PX - naphtha price spread was 233.3 US dollars/ton, down 24.5 US dollars/ton from June 6. With the rapid recovery of the supply side, the PX - naphtha price spread declined. It is expected that the processing fee will continue to decline next week [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Price Movement**: Affected by the sharp rise of international crude oil due to the Middle East geopolitical situation at the end of the week, the absolute price of PTA followed the cost increase. As of June 13, the PTA spot price reached 5015 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 + 221 [27]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA reached 83.25%, a week - on - week increase of 4.24%. In June, it is expected that the PTA capacity utilization rate will increase significantly as some devices have maintenance expectations and some are planned to restart [31]. - **Processing Fee**: This week, the PTA processing fee continued to rise. However, with new device production and the restart of previous maintenance devices, supply is expected to increase continuously. With poor terminal performance and strong polyester production reduction atmosphere, it is expected that the PTA processing fee will decline slightly next week [34]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In June, with the co - existence of PTA device maintenance and restart and the expectation of polyester load reduction, the PTA supply - demand will shift from destocking to a tight balance [35]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Price Movement**: This week, Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol bottomed out and stabilized. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation at the end of the week, with the expectation of supply reduction and cost support, MEG slightly rose. As of June 13, the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol price was 4426 yuan/ton, and the South China market delivery price was 4530 yuan/ton [41]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol was 55.07%, a week - on - week increase of 2.71%. The output of domestic factories has increased this week as some coal - chemical factories restarted and some integrated maintenance devices resumed work [42]. - **Inventory**: As of June 12, the total MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China was 56.38 tons, an increase of 1.67 tons compared with June 9. As of June 18, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 9.88 tons [47]. - **Production Profit**: The profits of all Chinese ethylene glycol process samples declined across the board. As of June 13, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 87.69 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11.02 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 72.85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68.88 yuan/ton compared with last week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester was 88.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. In June, it is expected that the monthly polyester output will decline significantly as supply reduction may be greater than increase due to poor demand and fewer days [53][58]. - **Product Inventory**: This week, the overall polyester production and sales were sluggish, and the industry inventory slightly increased [63]. - **Cash Flow**: Entering the traditional off - season, affected by weak terminal consumption, the polyester cash flow may continue to be compressed [66]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of June 12, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.02%, a decrease of 0.24% compared with the previous period. The average order days of terminal weaving were 9.91 days, a decrease of 0.51 days compared with last week [71]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: Oil prices have risen significantly, but the absolute price increase of PX is less than that of crude oil [74]. - **Supply Side**: PTA production increased significantly this week, and the ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate increased [74]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization rate declined slightly, and the weaving starting rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased [74]. - **Inventory**: PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the MEG port inventory in East China increased [74].