现货价格趋弱调整，期货震荡为主 正信期货花生月报 20250331 农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目 录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/ 数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/ 美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/me ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In April, with overseas macro disturbances and uncertainties, the index is under pressure, and the market is likely to run cautiously under the dominance of weak reality. As negative factors are gradually released and the expectation of domestic loose policies rises, the market may gradually stabilize and show a volatile trend of first falling and then rising. In the long - term, technology remains the main line, but in the short - term, it is advisable to be defensive [2][20]. Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Market Review**: In mid - and early March, strong policy expectations from the Two Sessions and domestic economic recovery expectations improved market risk appetite, pushing the index higher. After the policies were smoothly implemented and with increased domestic and overseas macro disturbances in April, the market showed a trend of rising first and then falling in March. As of March 28, the CSI 300 rose 0.65%, the SSE 50 rose 1.55%, the CSI 500 rose 0.96%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.03%. IF fell 0.41%, IH rose 1.19%, IC rose 0.53%, and IM fell 2.44%. The net short positions of IF, IH, and IM held by the top 20 institutional members increased, while that of IC decreased [4]. - **Liquidity and Capital**: As of March 28, the overnight Shibor rate dropped 13.7 basis points, and DR007 dropped 7.53 basis points, with the inter - bank market interest rate declining marginally. The net outflow of funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 965.295 billion, with 647.154 billion from the main board and 262.187 billion from the GEM. The margin trading balance increased by about 23.194 billion. Foreign capital data was not released [4][5]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In March, the manufacturing PMI index showed seasonal recovery and continued expansion. The "new orders - finished goods inventory" index improved, and the decline of "factory price - raw material purchase price" narrowed, but manufacturing enterprises still faced profit pressure. Supply exceeded demand, and the export order index continued to contract. Large enterprises continued to expand with a slowing slope, while small and medium - sized enterprises were still below the boom - bust line. The economic recovery requires further policy stimulus, and in April, the Politburo meeting may be in a wait - and - see state with limited possibility of policy surprises, and the economy is likely to recover slowly [13][15]. Views and Strategies - **Overseas Situation**: In the US, economic growth and the labor market slowed marginally in February, inflation pressure remained obvious. Trump's tariff policy increased uncertainty, and the market was worried about the US economic downturn. The probability of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut this year is high, but the Fed is less likely to cut interest rates in the short - to - medium - term. In early April, market uncertainty increased, leading to a decline in US stocks and a rise in US bonds [19]. - **Domestic Situation**: With the implementation of the Fed's March monetary policy and the resurgence of tariff concerns in April, the risk appetite of the equity market decreased, and the index entered an adjustment phase. Domestic economic data shows that further recovery needs policy support, and market sentiment is cautious with a preference for a defensive style. The investment strategy is that the style turns defensive, with IM and IC in correction and IF and IH in oscillation [20].

铁矿石期权：外矿发运环比回落，到港小幅回升；铁水产量 小幅下滑，港口库存基本持平，钢厂库存下滑，下游补库需 求持续进行。综合来看基本面供需双弱，后续钢厂补库有预 期。矿价下行，期权隐波处于中性水平，买入看跌价差为主。 注：本报告成交持仓数据为单边计算。 内容要点 铁矿石期权 标的行情回顾 1.1 期权行情回顾 1.2 铁矿石主连短期历史波动率上升；主力合约系列期权隐含波动率持平， 最新值为28%。 目 录 1.1、 标的行情回顾 铁矿石现货价格下行，月线收于793元/吨，环比下跌1.5%；DCE铁矿石先升 后降，指数月线收于798元/吨，环比下跌2.7%。 铁矿石期权日均成交量260753手，环比上升；总持仓量435768手，环 比上升。 1.2、 期权行情回顾 I2505系列期权日均成交78225手，环比上升；总持仓量273033手， 环比上升，持仓量PCR值增加，最新值为1.12。 1.2、 期权行情回顾 1.3 期权策略推荐 1.2、 期权行情回顾 谢 谢 观 看 | 正信期货研究院 | | --- | | 专业 深度 新鲜 | | 长按二维码识别订阅更多精彩 | 客服热线：400-700-0068 公 ...

铁矿石期权：澳巴发运环比回落，到港小幅回升，铁水产量 延续小幅下滑，但吨钢利润明显修复。港口库存微降，钢厂 库存基本持平。综合来看矿价维持偏强运行。期权隐波处于 中性水平，择机买入看跌价差。 铁矿石期权 期权行情回顾 1.2 注：本报告成交持仓数据为单边计算。 内容要点 1.3 标的行情回顾 1.1 目 录 1.1、 标的行情回顾 铁矿石现货价格月线收于835元/吨，环比上涨4%；DCE铁矿石先升后降， 指数月线收于831元/吨，环比上涨3.5%。 铁矿石期权日均成交量347985手，环比上升；总持仓量360031手，环 比下降。 1.2、 期权行情回顾 1.2、 期权行情回顾 I2505系列期权日均成交102964手，环比上升；总持仓量315120手， 环比上升，持仓量PCR值持平，最新值为1.12。 铁矿石主连短期历史波动率持平；主力合约系列期权隐含波动率持平， 最新值为28%。 1.2、 期权行情回顾 期权策略推荐 1.3、 期权策略推荐 澳巴发运环比回落，到港小幅回升，铁水产量 延续小幅下滑，但吨钢利润明显修复。港口库 存微降，钢厂库存基本持平。综合来看矿价维 持偏强运行。期权隐波处于中性水平，择机买 ...

铁矿石期权：外矿发运环比回升，到港小幅回落，钢厂高炉 复产比例与铁水产量止跌回升，到港偏低，港口出现去库， 钢厂库存累积明显。受粗钢平控减产预期影响，铁矿弱势下 跌。期权隐波下降，处于偏低水平，买入看跌期权。 注：本报告成交持仓数据为单边计算。 内容要点 铁矿石期权 标的行情回顾 1.1 期权行情回顾 1.2 1.3 期权策略推荐 I2505系列期权日均成交119881手，环比上升；总持仓量321710手， 环比上升，持仓量PCR值减小，最新值为1.01。 铁矿石主连短期历史波动率下降；主力合约系列期权隐含波动率下降， 最新值为25%。 1.2、 期权行情回顾 从期限结构来看，铁矿石主连短期历史波动率低于长期历史波动率，10 日HV值为20%，低于均值水平。 1.2、 期权行情回顾 1.3、 期权策略推荐 目 录 1.1、 标的行情回顾 铁矿石现货价格先升后降，月线收于805元/吨，环比持平；DCE铁矿石宽幅 震荡，指数月线收于789元/吨，环比下跌2%。 铁矿石期权日均成交量218017手，环比下降；总持仓量421384手，环 比上升。 1.2、 期权行情回顾 1.2、 期权行情回顾 外矿发运环比回升，到港 ...

沪铜期权周报 20250224 研究员：张杰夫 投资咨询编号：Z0016959 Email： zhangjf@mfc.com.cn Tel：027-68851645 内容要点 铜价维持偏强运行 择机双卖做空波动率 标的分析：当前铜价主要受到宏观预期的支撑和推动，关税预期引发的通胀预期交易抬升铜价，上周 LME-CME价差创历史最大价差后有所收敛但依然维持高位，关税预期未落地，不确定性仍存。国内政 策预期良好，风险资产延续积极态势，支撑高位铜价。基本面来看，供给扰动加剧，现货TC跌至负值， 冶炼亏损状态比去年更甚，但目前铜价高位，精炼产量不低，下游复苏节奏偏慢，库存在进一步累升。 同时受关税预期扰动全球三大铜价差距进一步拉大，沪铜与LME铜价差走阔，导致出口利润窗口打开， 这一定程度或减缓国内累库进程，最终仍需看总显性库存增加情况。上周铜价高开低走，价格出现减 仓汇率，持仓水平位于47万手，从宏观预期来看，关税预期有反复，国内政策预期积极，铜价短期仍 以高位偏强对待。 期权策略：铜期权合约隐含波动率大幅回落，重心大幅下移。主力CU2503合约隐波率最新值 11.88%，较前值16.41%大幅减小，CU2504和 ...

铜价震荡运行 择机卖出看涨期权 沪铜期权月报 202503 研究员：张杰夫 投资咨询编号：Z0016959 Email： zhangjf@mfc.com.cn Tel：027-68851645 内容要点 标的分析：宏观层面关税预期导致通胀预期传导至铜价上涨的逻辑，由于美国经济数据不及预期边 际弱化，美国服务业PMI回落幅度较大，消费者信心指数跌至12个月新低，导致通胀传导逻辑不畅， 同时美联储偏鹰派，铜价转为承压震荡格局；国内仍处两会政策窗口期，相对来说预期更积极。基 本面来看，供给扰动加剧，现货TC跌至负值，冶炼亏损状态比去年更甚，但目前铜价高位，精炼实 际产量不低，下游复苏节奏偏慢，库存在进一步累升。同时受关税预期扰动全球三大铜价差距进一 步拉大，沪铜与LME铜价差走阔，导致出口利润窗口打开，这一定程度或减缓国内累库进程，同时 LME亚洲地区库存向北美流动，关注后期LME是否有发生挤仓的风险。上周铜价高位震荡运行，价 格多次尝试77500后受阻回落，持仓减至47万手，波动率回到偏低位表现，铜价在关税预期扰动下 偏震荡运行，区间75000-78000。 期权策略：铜期权合约隐含波动率持续回落，重心大幅下移。 ...

黄金价格高位运行 期权投资者情绪保持偏多 黄金期权月报 202503 研究员：张杰夫 投资咨询编号：Z0016959 Email： zhangjf@mfc.com.cn Tel：027-68851645 2.1 期权成交持仓分析 内容要点 标的分析：2025年2月金价呈现冲高回落态势。上周五美国公布1月PCE物价指数，总体表现出通胀全面降 温趋势，核心PCE 录得2.65%，较上月下降0.19%，PCE 物价指数录得2.51%，较上月下降0.09%，结 构来看，商品分项同比转正，服务分项大幅降温，较上月下降0.46%至3.39%，与此前的PMI数据表现一致， 制造业在走向复苏，服务业在移民政策冲击下开始显著降温。由于关税政策总体弱于预期，总通胀仍然表现 出震荡下降的趋势，支撑美联储维持宽松货币政策，金融市场进一步修正对美联储利率路径的预期。根据 CME的FedWatch工具显示，市场预期2025年降息次数增至2-3次，且降息幅度约50-75bp，降息时点预期 在6月，9月和12月， 降息周期的利率终值下降至3.5%-3.75%区间，数据落地后美债利率持续下降，美十 债利率逼近4.2%的关口，金融属性驱动风险资 ...

大类资产每周观察 正信期货大类资产周报 20240825 研究员：蒲祖林 投资咨询证号：Z0017203 Email：puzl@zxqh.net PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuw en/ 数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxu e/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yin gyu/ 美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian ...

Economic Overview - The US July Markit Manufacturing PMI fell below the expansion threshold, while Q2 GDP showed unexpected resilience, leading to a rebound in US Treasury yields and a tightening of financial conditions[3] - Domestic economic weakness persists, with real estate policies underperforming and manufacturing not experiencing seasonal strength, prompting the central bank to consider preemptive rate cuts[3] Investment Strategy - US inflation trends appear optimistic, but a cooling job market and service sector may lead to three potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank this year, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates in September[3] - In China, macroeconomic policy effects remain insufficient, with manufacturing and real estate sectors under pressure, suggesting a continued economic bottoming out in the short term[3] Asset Performance - A-shares outperformed other markets, while commodities saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% and the Hang Seng Index dropping by 5.63%[4] - The bond market showed mixed results, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.27%, reflecting a 11 basis point increase, while the 10-2Y yield spread narrowed to -14 basis points[35] Risk Assessment - The stock-bond risk premium increased to 4.24%, indicating a higher risk appetite among investors, while foreign capital risk premium rose to 6.39%, suggesting a neutral to high level of foreign investment attractiveness[9] - Key risks include US inflation and employment disturbances, as well as the potential for geopolitical conflicts impacting market stability[3] Commodity Insights - Industrial commodities are expected to experience a rebound in August, followed by adjustments in September, with low inventory levels providing some support against declines[39] - Agricultural products are anticipated to stabilize after weather-related price fluctuations, with a focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks[39]