1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Bearish [2] - PTA: Bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish MTO [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Report's Core Views - The supply of most energy and chemical products is expected to be in a relatively loose state, and under the influence of macro - factors such as US tariff policies and the supply - demand relationship, most product prices are under downward pressure. Some products may have short - term rebounds or limited decline space due to factors such as low valuations and seasonal demand [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On October 10, international oil prices fell significantly. WTI dropped 4.24%, Brent dropped 3.82%, and SC dropped 0.53% [7] - **Basic Logic**: Trump's action released macro - risks, and the oil price rebounded after a decline. The core driving factor is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price is likely to be suppressed below $60 [8] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC + plans to increase production in November. US oil rigs decreased, and Russian exports from the Baltic Sea accounted for 41% of its seaborne exports. Global oil supply is expected to exceed demand in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude inventories increased, gasoline and distillate inventories decreased, and strategic crude reserves increased [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is gradually surplus, and pay attention to the shale oil break - even point around $60. In the short - term, the trend is still weak. Hold short positions and buy call options. Pay attention to the range of [435 - 455] for SC [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On October 10, the PG main contract closed at 4063 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [12] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price center moved down, and Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price, putting pressure on the upper side of LPG [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil is greater than demand, and LPG mainly follows the oil price. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Hold short positions and pay attention to the range of [4000 - 4100] for PG [14] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7037 yuan/ton (- 40) [18] - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it fluctuates weakly following the cost. The supply is in a loose pattern, and although the absolute price is undervalued, the upward driving force is insufficient [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support level below, and the range is [6850 - 7050] [19] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closed at 6722 yuan/ton (- 23) [23] - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it runs weakly following the cost. After the holiday, the inventory accumulated, and the supply - demand pattern is loose, with high destocking pressure [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices, and pay attention to the support level below, with the range of [6600 - 6800] [24] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closed at 4735 yuan/ton (- 34) [27] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens, and after the holiday, the upstream and mid - stream inventory accumulated. The supply - demand pattern is loose, but the decline space of the spot is limited due to high pre - sales [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support level below, and the range is [4600 - 4800] [28] PX - **Market Review**: On October 10, the PX spot was 6618 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6504 (- 82) yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing the load, and the demand - side PTA start - up is slightly rising. The supply - demand is in a tight balance but is expected to be loose. Affected by the US tariff policy, the overnight crude oil dropped significantly [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to make up for the decline at the opening. Close short positions at low prices, sell call options, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices later. The range for PX511 is [6380 - 6510] [33] PTA - **Market Review**: On October 10, the PTA in East China was 4485 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the TA01 closed at 4534 (- 50) yuan/ton [35] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side start - up load increases, and the demand - side has the expectation of the "Silver October" consumption season. The supply - demand in September is in a tight balance and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. In the short - term, it follows the cost fluctuation [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to make up for the decline at the opening. Close short positions at low prices, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices later. The range for TA01 is [4450 - 4535] [37] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Review**: On October 10, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4190 (- 24) yuan/ton, and the EG01 closed at 4185 (- 50) yuan/ton [39] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are increasing the load, overseas devices change little. The terminal demand is slightly improved, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. Affected by the US tariff policy, the international crude oil price dropped [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to make up for the decline and reach the bottom at the opening. Close short positions at low prices, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices later. The range for EG01 is [4050 - 4135] [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On October 10, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2245 (+ 20) yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2307 (+ 17) yuan/ton [44] - **Basic Logic**: Affected by the US tariff policy, the supply pressure is large, the demand is slightly improved, the social inventory accumulates again, and the cost support stabilizes [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to make up for the decline at the opening. Gradually close short positions, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 01 contract at low prices. The range for MA01 is [2260 - 2340] [47] Urea - **Market Review**: On October 10, the small - particle urea spot in Shandong was 1540 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1597 (- 12) yuan/ton [49] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, the inventory accumulates, and the cost has some support [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The urea price fluctuates weakly. Hold short positions, but pay attention to the opportunity of lightly going long at low prices in the long - term. The range for UR601 is [1550 - 1590] [52] Natural Gas - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. The macro - risk rises, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the gas price drops, but the demand for winter gas storage provides some support [6] Asphalt - **Core View**: Bearish. The cost - end oil price weakens, the supply - demand is loose, and the valuation is high [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [6] Glass - **Core View**: Bearish continuation. Some production lines are ignited, the supply pressure increases, and the downstream replenishment in the peak season needs attention [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close the short position of the alkali - glass spread, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [6] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish continuation. After the holiday, the inventory in the factory increases, the supply is expected to be loose, and the industry hedges at high prices [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry hedges at high prices, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [6]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹表需受节日影响环比下降，产量略降，库存上升。整体来看，建筑钢材下游需求仍 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 显疲弱，房地产及基建表现继续形成拖累，供需驱动力量有限，，整体维持区间偏弱运 行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷表需受节日影响环比回落，产量小幅下降，库存上升，总体符合季节性表现。钢材 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 整体需求仍然偏弱，库存水平偏高，供需层面缺少持续向上驱动，短期区间偏弱运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 多单离场 | 基本面偏中性。下游成材端体现假期特征，累库明显，观察节后库存消化速度。宏观层 | | ★ | | 面关税扰动再袭，避险情绪升温，盘面恐偏弱运行。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货第二轮提涨延迟，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润一般，现货生产相对稳定。铁水产 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 量维持高位运行，原料需求较稳定。焦炭本身供需相对平衡，跟随焦煤区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 煤矿整体产量有回升预期，进口预计维持高位，供应边际将继续改善。铁水产量绝对水 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 平较高， ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹表需受节日影响环比下降，产量略降，库存上升。整体来看，建筑钢材下游需求仍 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 显疲弱，房地产及基建表现继续形成拖累，供需驱动力量有限，原料端短线偏强，整体 维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看多 | 热卷表需受节日影响环比回落，产量小幅下降，库存上升，总体符合季节性表现。钢材 | | ★ | | 整体需求仍然偏弱，供需层面缺少持续向上驱动，或维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 国庆期间铁水产量微降，维持高位。钢厂消耗库存为主，节后部分钢厂有补库需求。基 | | ★ | 多单持有 | 本面偏中性。下游成材端体现假期特征，累库明显，观察节后库存消化速度。宏观层面 | | | | "反内卷"与月底重要会议预期偏强，提振市场情绪。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货第一轮提涨已落地，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润一般，现货生产相对稳定。铁水 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 产量维持高位运行，原料需求较稳定。焦炭本身供需相对平衡，跟随焦煤区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 煤矿整体产量处于回升状态 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [3] - Ethylene glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [5] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [5] 2. Report's Core Views - The core driver of the energy and chemical industry is the supply - demand imbalance, with supply often exceeding demand in the off - season, leading to downward pressure on prices. For most products, there are short - term trading opportunities based on cost fluctuations, and long - term trends are affected by factors such as new capacity, inventory, and policy [1][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.47%, Brent up 1.22%, and SC with no quote due to the holiday [6]. - **Basic logic**: On October 5th, OPEC+ planned to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The core driver is off - season supply surplus, and oil prices are likely to be pressured to around $60 [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase, while EIA forecasts show global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude oil inventory rose in the week ending October 3rd [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [470 - 485] for SC [9]. LPG - **Market performance**: On October 9th, the PG main contract closed at 4,078 yuan/ton, down 5.05% [11]. - **Basic logic**: The cost side is pressured by the decline in oil prices and the reduction of Saudi CP contract prices. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand in some sectors has decreased [12]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4150 - 4250] for PG [13]. L - **Market performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,077 yuan/ton, down 1.1% [16]. - **Basic logic**: It follows cost fluctuations, with weakening cost support. After the holiday, inventory increased, and the supply - demand pattern is strong on both sides but with limited upward drive [18]. - **Strategy**: It runs weakly in the short term. Focus on the lower support level and wait for dips to test long positions. Focus on the range of [7000 - 7150] [18]. PP - **Market performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,745 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [21]. - **Basic logic**: Cost factors such as crude oil and propane are weak. After - holiday inventory increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose with high de - stocking pressure [23]. - **Strategy**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Focus on the lower support level and wait for dips to test long positions. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6800] [23]. PVC - **Market performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,839 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [25]. - **Basic logic**: The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and inventory has increased significantly after the holiday. The supply - demand pattern is loose, but the decline in spot prices is limited due to low valuation [27]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose. Focus on the lower support level and conduct range operations. Focus on the range of [4700 - 4850] [27]. PX - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the PX spot price was 6,624 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic logic**: Supply has slightly increased, while demand is expected to weaken due to PTA maintenance. Macro factors such as high US crude oil inventory and OPEC+ production increase put pressure on oil prices, and PX is expected to be weak [31]. - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6520 - 6630] for PX511 [32]. PTA - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is expected to ease due to increased maintenance, and demand has improved recently. However, the cost side is pressured by oil prices, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [34]. - **Strategy**: Gradually close short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4530 - 4610] for TA01 [35]. MEG - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic plants have slightly increased production, and overseas plants have changed little. Terminal demand has improved, but new capacity and supply recovery may lead to inventory accumulation in the future. It follows cost fluctuations and is expected to be weak [38]. - **Strategy**: Gradually close short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4125 - 4185] for EG01 [39]. Methanol - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,290 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure remains high as maintenance plants resume production. Demand has improved, especially in the MTO sector. Social inventory is decreasing, and cost support is stabilizing [43]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2280 - 2320] for MA01 [45]. Urea - **Market performance**: On September 30th, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton [47]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is relatively loose as plants resume production. Domestic demand is weak, but fertilizer exports are relatively good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [48]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on dips in the long term [3]. Natural gas - **Market performance**: As of October 3rd, the number of US natural gas rigs increased by 1 to 118 [5]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is relatively sufficient, but the increase in combustion demand with the cooling weather and winter gas storage provide some support for gas prices [5]. - **Strategy**: Cautiously bearish [5]. Asphalt - **Market performance**: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - **Basic logic**: The cost side is pressured by the increase in crude oil supply surplus, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Valuation is high [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [5]. Glass - **Market performance**: Some regional spot prices have risen, and factory inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks [5]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is under pressure as daily melting volume remains high, and demand from the real - estate sector is weak. Focus on the downstream restocking during the peak season [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the alkali - glass spread in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5]. Soda ash - **Market performance**: Spot prices have risen slightly, and the basis has strengthened [5]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to be loose as summer maintenance ends and plants resume production. Demand is mostly for rigid needs, and enterprise inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks [5]. - **Strategy**: The industry can hedge at high prices and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Volatility**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - **Short - term Bullish**: Palm oil, Soybean oil [1] - **Bullish**: Rapeseed oil [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Cotton, Red dates, Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term volatility is expected due to the intersection of long and short factors such as the harvest of US soybeans, Sino - US trade negotiations, and dry weather in Brazilian soybean planting. The adjustment space is limited before the Sino - US negotiations start [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is expected to show short - term volatility, following the trend of soybean meal. Trade policies and high inventory lead to the intersection of long and short factors. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation still takes time, and the positive impact is limited [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish. The Indonesian government's bio - fuel policies are expected to increase future demand, but the absence of the Southeast Asian减产 season may limit the continuous upward space [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish, mainly following the palm oil market. The US government shutdown and other factors have led to an optimistic sentiment in the US soybean market [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is expected to run strongly. Low oil mill operating rates, market sentiment of hoarding and price - holding, and the consumption peak season, along with the hype of palm oil's bio - fuel concept, support its bullish trend [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bearish. The supply of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is increasing, and the demand has not improved significantly. In the domestic market, new cotton harvesting is progressing, and the demand outlook is weak [1][10][11]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish. Considering the expected production and inventory, there is still pressure after the new fruits are listed. Although the concern about quality is gradually alleviated, there may be significant price fluctuations due to weather speculation [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bearish. The supply pressure is strong due to the active slaughter of large farms and increased slaughter by retail farmers. The terminal demand is expected to decline after the double - festival stocking [1][17]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory and Consumption**: As of September 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 938500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40200 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 719910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25250 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 118920 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6080 tons [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 2939 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price was 3025.14 yuan/ton. The basis of different contracts and cross - variety spreads showed certain changes [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory and Production**: As of September 26, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 2600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 250 tons [6]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 2435 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price was 2593.16 yuan/ton. The basis and cross - variety spreads changed [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Production**: As of September 26, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 552200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32900 tons. The Malaysian palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% compared with the previous month [8]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 9570 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 9555 yuan/ton. The cross - period and cross - variety spreads showed changes [7]. Cotton - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the supply pressure of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is increasing, and the export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton harvesting is ongoing, and the demand is weak [10][11]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts showed small increases, and the basis and cross - period spreads changed. The cotton profit of textile enterprises decreased, and the开机 rates of spinning mills and weaving factories were relatively stable [9]. Red Dates - **Production and Inventory**: The estimated new - season production is 560000 - 620000 tons, a decrease compared with previous years. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons compared with the previous period [15]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts increased slightly, and the basis and cross - period spreads changed. The arrival volume in Guangdong increased [13]. Live Pigs - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the supply pressure is strong due to the large - scale enterprises'出栏 pressure and the increase in the number of slaughtered pigs. The terminal demand is expected to decline after the double - festival stocking [17]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts decreased, and the basis, cross - period spreads, and other indicators changed. The national sample enterprises'生猪存栏 and出栏 increased slightly [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Silver: Callback to go long (★★) [1] - Copper: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Zinc: Rebound (★), with a view of selling on rallies in the medium - long term [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: Rise and then fall (★) [1] - Aluminum: Rise and then fall (★) [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish (★) [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish (★) [1] Core Views - For precious metals, the geopolitical situation and central bank gold - buying support long - term prices, but short - term adjustments occur due to events like the cease - fire in the Middle East [1][3] - For base metals, supply - demand imbalances lead to different price trends. For example, copper is long - term bullish due to supply shortages and strong demand, while zinc is a bearish configuration in the medium - long term due to increasing supply and weakening demand [1][7][11] - For new energy metals like lithium carbonate, policy expectations and demand support prices, but attention should be paid to supply - side factors such as mine复产 [1][23] Summary by Variety Gold - **Market situation**: After the cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, the safe - haven sentiment partially withdrew, and gold adjusted from its high level [2] - **Logic**: Factors such as the US government shutdown, political uncertainties in France and Japan, and central bank gold - buying support the long - term rise of gold prices. The cease - fire in the Middle East causes short - term adjustments [3] - **Strategy**: Long - term positions should be held. Short - term investors can buy on dips. Domestic gold may test the 900 support level [1][4] Silver - **Market situation**: It fluctuates greatly following gold, with a significant drop after reaching a high [1] - **Logic**: Global policy stimulus leads to strong demand and an obvious supply - demand gap, supporting long - term prices. Gold price fluctuations impact the silver market [1] - **Strategy**: Short - term investors can try to go long, and long - term investors should hold [1] Copper - **Market situation**: Shanghai copper reached the 88,000 - yuan mark and then quickly fell back, while LME copper was close to its historical high [7] - **Logic**: Supply shortages due to mine accidents and production cuts, along with strong demand from emerging industries, drive up prices. However, high prices suppress short - term demand [7] - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions with trailing stops. New long positions should wait for a pull - back to stabilize. Long - term bullish. Shanghai copper focus range is [84,500, 88,500] yuan/ton, and LME copper is [10,000, 11,000] dollars/ton [1][8] Zinc - **Market situation**: Zinc prices rose overnight and then fell back, with LME zinc back above the 3,000 - dollar mark. The domestic and overseas trends are divergent, with the domestic market being weaker [11] - **Logic**: Domestic supply is relatively loose, while overseas inventories are low. Demand from real estate and infrastructure is weak, but export may increase [11] - **Strategy**: In the short term, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is limited. Sell - hedging can be arranged on rallies. In the medium - long term, it is a bearish configuration. Shanghai zinc focus range is [22,000, 22,600] yuan/ton, and LME zinc is [2,900, 3,100] dollars/ton [12] Aluminum - **Market situation**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell, while alumina continued to be weak [14] - **Logic**: There is an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. The domestic aluminum inventory increased during the holiday, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [15] - **Strategy**: In the short term, take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate. The main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is [20,600 - 21,500] [16] Nickel - **Market situation**: Nickel prices rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel prices slightly declined [18] - **Logic**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively sufficient, and the domestic pure nickel inventory increased slightly. The downstream consumption season is uncertain, and the inventory of stainless steel increased [19] - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [121,000 - 125,000] [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The main contract LC2511 rose and then fell back, with the late - session gain narrowing [22] - **Logic**: Policy requirements and export controls impact the market. The production of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the battery industry is relatively stable, which supports the price [23] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips in the range of [72,800 - 74,500] [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][7][9] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][12][13] - L: Bearish consolidation [1][15][18] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1][20][23] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1][25][28] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1][32][33] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1][36][37] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [1][40][41] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [1][45][47] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [1][50][52] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [1][5][53] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [1][5] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and macro - economic impacts. Most products are expected to show a bearish or weak - oscillating trend, but some products may have short - term opportunities based on specific supply - demand and cost changes [1][7][32] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.47% and Brent up 1.22%, while SC had no quote due to the holiday [6] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with oil prices likely to be pressured to around $60 [7] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase as OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Demand is expected to be lower than supply in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude inventory increased in the week ending October 3 [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [470 - 485] for SC [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PG main contract closed at 4,295 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different changes [10][11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as the oil price center moves down and Saudi Arabia lowers the CP contract price. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand has some improvement [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4150 - 4250] [13] L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7,153 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. Other related prices and positions also had corresponding changes [16] - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows cost fluctuations. The cost support weakens as crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It runs weakly in the short term due to cost factors. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 6,852 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. Other related prices and positions changed accordingly [21][22] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations. Crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday, while propylene is strong. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and upstream device changes [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [6800 - 6950] [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 4,839 yuan/ton, down 1.2%. Other related prices and positions had corresponding changes [26][27] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens as crude oil and calcium carbide prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation. The low valuation limits the downside [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PX spot price was 6,624 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [30][31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing load, while demand - side PTA maintenance is high, leading to a loose supply - demand expectation. Macroeconomic factors also put pressure on oil prices [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop - profit short positions, short on rebounds, and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6490 - 6600] for PX511 [33] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PTA price in East China was 4,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [34][35] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to expected device maintenance. Demand has improved recently. 9 - month supply - demand was in tight balance, but it is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop - profit short positions gradually after the holiday. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4520 - 4600] for TA01 [37] MEG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [38][39] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase load, overseas devices change little. Terminal demand has short - term improvement but is under pressure in the future. There is an expected increase in supply after the holiday [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should be gradually stopped - profit after the holiday's low - opening and rebound. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4145 - 4210] for EG01 [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 30, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,290 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure remains large as domestic devices resume production and overseas device load declines. Demand has improved, and cost support is stabilizing [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2311 - 2351] for MA01 [47] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 30, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [48][49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose as enterprises resume production. Demand is weak domestically but good for exports. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for long - term opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [1640 - 1670] for UR601 [52] Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively sufficient, causing gas prices to decline. The increase in rig count and the need for winter gas storage have some impact on prices [5] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as oil prices decline. Supply - demand is loose, and the valuation is high. Hold short positions [1][5] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The spot price was firm before the holiday, and the basis was continuously repaired. Factory inventory has been decreasing for 3 weeks. Pay attention to downstream restocking during the peak season. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the alkali - glass spread in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The futures market is in a high - premium structure, and industrial hedging pressures the market. The demand for heavy soda has improved, and enterprise inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks. Supply is expected to be loose [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 节日期间现货变化不大，高炉生产基本正常，检修不多。螺纹表需受节日影响环比下降， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 产量略降，库存上升。整体来看，建筑钢材下游需求仍显疲弱，房地产及基建表现继续 | | | | 形成拖累，供需驱动力量有限，短期区间运行。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷表需受节日影响环比回落，产量小幅下降，库存上升，总体符合季节性表现。钢材 | | ★ | | 整体需求仍然偏弱，供需层面缺少持续向上驱动，或维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 截止到 10 月 7 日，今年十一小长假期间进口铁矿石市场表现出较为冷清的状态，海外 掉期与往期小长假期间表现一样处于窄幅震荡的状态。掉期价格较节前上涨 0.68％。 | | | 轻多参与 | | | ★ | | 节后来看，假期铁水产量高企，对矿价仍有支撑，节后钢厂预计有阶段性补库，带动矿 | | | | 价走强。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货第一轮提涨已落地，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润一般，现货生产相对稳定。铁水 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 产量维持高 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美国政府停摆、法国总理上任不足一月辞职、日本政治不确定性共同推高了避险情 | | ★★★ | 跳空高开 | 绪。短期沪金或挑战 910 位置，短线追高需要控制节奏仓位。中长期黄金支撑逻辑 | | | | 不变，降息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄金战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银跟随黄金、铜等市场大幅波动，短期情绪高涨。全球政策刺激明显，白银需求 | | 白银 | 跳空高开 | 坚挺，供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。黄金等品种波动会白银盘面波动有 | | ★★ | | 冲击。短线可试多，长线长期持有 | | | | 宏微共振，投机资金涌入铜市，伦铜创年内新高，节后沪铜或跟涨高开。建议铜前 | | 铜 | | 期多单继续持有，新多单等待回调企稳再入场，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 贵金属的平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景下，长期看好。 | | | | 国庆假期，伦锌震荡走强，伦锌库存不足 4 万吨，软挤仓风险 ...

| 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2928 | 2933 | -2 | -0. 17% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3018. 57 | 3014. 29 | 4. 28 | 0. 14% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 2940 | 2940 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3287.5 | 3287.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2207.5 | 2213. 75 | -6. 25 | -0. 28% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3575 | 3625 | -50 | -1. 38% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1433. 33 | 1433. 33 | 0 | ...