| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量小幅上升，表需环比略降，绝对水平仍为同期最低。库存继续正常去化，目前 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 已降至较低水平。铁水产量基本持平，与去年同期相近。目前宏观政策驱动有限，螺纹 | | | | 供需双弱，区间运行的状态仍将维持。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需小幅上升，库存继续下降，但绝对水平仍然偏高，去库速度偏慢。现货 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 相对较弱，基差平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情上方空间形成压制，短期或继续 | | | | 维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看空 | 数据来看，铁水环比转增。钢厂按需补库，港口增库。外矿发货仍有冲量，基本面偏弱， | | ★ | | 但供给端事件扰动下，交易情绪仍偏强。 | | | | 焦炭开启第四轮提降，预计 1 月 1 日起执行。三轮提降落地后，焦企陷入亏损状态，但 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 亏损程度不深，短期焦企生产积极性尚可，产区供应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产量 | | ★ | | 环比基本持平，钢厂维持小幅补库。盘面快速 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘不确定性 VS 供给过剩，油价区间震荡。地缘：南美、中东地缘不确 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 定性上升，油价反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+ | | ★ | | 仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存 | | | | 均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化， | | | | 俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 油价受中东地缘扰动，短线反弹，中长期承压。成本端原油，短线有所反 | | LPG | 空头反弹 | 弹，大趋势仍向下，成本端偏弱；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升， | | ★ | | PDH 开工率升至 75%，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环 | | | | 比下降。 | | | | 短期跟随市场情绪波动为主。基本面供需双弱，检修降负不足，LL 加权毛 | | L | | 利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期检修难度 | | | 空头反弹 | 相对 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Rebound**: The report suggests short - term rebounds for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and jujube. For soybean meal, although the U.S. soybean export data is poor and domestic soybean inventory has decreased while soybean meal inventory has increased, the expected decline in imports in the first quarter and the rising cost of U.S. soybean imports support the short - term rebound. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal with reduced inventory pressure and shows some resistance to decline. Jujube has a short - term rebound opportunity despite high inventory and a generally bearish supply - demand situation [1][3][6][14]. - **Stop - falling and Rebound**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to stop falling and rebound. Palm oil has a de - stocking expectation in December due to increased export data and reduced production, but the Indonesian policy cools the bullish sentiment. Soybean oil's supply environment has slightly improved, and the import in the first quarter is lower than expected. Rapeseed oil has short - term supply tightness and benefits from domestic edible oil inspections [1][7][8]. - **Oscillate Strongly**: Cotton is expected to oscillate strongly. Internationally, the ICE market is expected to oscillate at the bottom due to mixed factors. Domestically, new cotton processing is almost completed, sales progress is fast, and downstream demand is resilient, but attention should be paid to the suppression of spinning mill profits and external supply [1][9][12]. - **Short - term Rebound for Live Pigs**: Live pigs are expected to have a short - term rebound. Recently, affected by snow and the entry of second - fattening pigs, the supply pressure is postponed to January - February, and the short - term supply - demand pressure eases, which is conducive to the short - term rebound [1][15][16]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 825.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40.50 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 654.44 million tons, a decrease of 67.92 million tons from last week, a decrease of 9.40%. The soybean meal inventory was 116.76 million tons, an increase of 3.05 million tons from last week, an increase of 2.68%. The physical inventory of soybean meal in national feed enterprises was 9.45 days, an increase of 0.22 days from the previous period and 1.01 days from the same period last year [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - term long positions after adjustment. Before the U.S. soybean stabilizes, the performance of soybean meal will be restricted. Focus on whether the U.S. soybean export data can improve and the South American weather conditions [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: As of December 26, the coastal oil mill's rapeseed inventory, rapeseed meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts were all 0 million tons, unchanged from last week. The supply of rapeseed meal is scarce, and the spot price has risen, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low [6]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal. With the relief of inventory pressure, it shows some resistance to decline. Pay attention to the Australian rapeseed pressing and import policies and the subsequent progress of China - Canada trade [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: As of December 26, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 73.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.41 million tons, an increase of 4.87%. Different institutions' data on Malaysia's palm oil export and production in the first 25 days of December vary, but generally, there is a de - stocking expectation in December [7][8]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Bullish investors can participate at low prices. Before the de - stocking conclusion in December is confirmed, pay attention to controlling positions. Focus on the final data [1][8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Internationally, the U.S. new cotton inspection progress is about 78%, India's new cotton daily listing volume is 4.3 million tons, and Brazil's 2025 cotton processing progress is 92.63%, with the 2026 new cotton planting progress at 16.9%. Domestically, new cotton picking is basically completed, the public inspection volume exceeds 6 million tons, and the new - season lint cost is locked at 14,600 - 15,200 yuan/ton. The new cotton sales progress is still fast, and the national commercial inventory has risen to 5.165 billion tons [9][10][11]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to the opportunity of entering the market with long positions on dips. Be vigilant about the suppression of spinning mill profits and external supply on the disk, and focus on the change in the commercial inventory accumulation speed [1][12]. Jujube - **Market Situation**: The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market supply has increased. The 36 - sample physical inventory is 15,898 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210 tons, still higher than the same period last year. The demand in the market varies [13][14]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Maintain a generally bearish attitude, but pay attention to short - term rebound opportunities in the cooling peak season [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short term, the slaughter progress of steel - union sample enterprises in the first 20 days is 70%, and the supply pressure at the end of the month may ease. The entry of second - fattening pigs in Shandong has increased, and the supply pressure is postponed to January - February. In the medium term, the number of newborn piglets in November decreased. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is expected to reach the adjustment target by the end of the year [15][16]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The 01 contract is restricted by the delivery logic, and the deep - decline space of the valuation is limited after the spot rebound. For the 03 contract, pay attention to the safety margin after the rebound and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term. For the 09 and 11 contracts, wait and see in the short - term data vacuum period [1][16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for each metal variety, the following ratings are provided: - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Control risks [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, medium - long - term short - allocation [1] - Lead: Rebound and then fall [1] - Tin: Rise and then fall [1] - Aluminum: Rise and then fall [1] - Nickel: Rebound and then fall [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure, medium - long - term short - selling on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] Core Views - The prices of precious metals such as gold and silver have large fluctuations. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, while silver has short - term risks and long - term bullish logic [1][2][3]. - Copper prices have pulled back significantly due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday. In the short term, it is recommended to wait for a full correction and then enter the market at low prices. In the medium - long term, copper is still optimistic [1][4][5][6]. - Zinc prices are under pressure to fall due to factors such as the approaching holiday, the increase in visible inventory, and the decline in processing fees. In the medium - long term, it is a short - allocation in the sector [1][7][8][9]. - Aluminum prices have fallen from high levels. It is recommended to take profits in the short term and wait and see, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory [1][10][11][12][13]. - Nickel prices rebound under pressure. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see in the short term, paying attention to the change of stainless steel inventory [1][14][15][16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices have a high - level correction. It is recommended to wait and see [1][18][19][20][21]. Summary by Metal Variety Gold - Core view: Long - term holding. The large fluctuations of silver and platinum affect gold. In the short term, there are no major events driving the fundamentals, and the risk preference for liquidity is acceptable. In the medium - long term, the geopolitical order is being reshaped, and central banks continue to buy gold, so the long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged [1]. Silver - Core view: Control risks. Short - term over - heated funds are retreating. The gold - silver ratio has decreased rapidly, and the market is in an over - bought range, so beware of high - volatility risks. In the long term, the market bets on continuous interest rate cuts, continuous supply - demand gaps for five years, and global large - scale fiscal policies are all beneficial to silver, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [1]. Copper - Market performance: The price of Shanghai copper has pulled back from a high level. The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 96,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.38% [4]. - Industry logic: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight. The long - term agreement TC for 2026 is 0 US dollars/ton. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased slightly, imports decreased, and exports increased significantly. High copper prices have an obvious inhibitory effect on demand, and the spot discount has widened [5]. - Strategy recommendation: Wait for a full correction and then enter the market at low prices. In the medium - long term, copper is still optimistic. The short - term attention range for Shanghai copper is [93,500, 98,500] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [11,800, 12,300] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - Market performance: The price of Shanghai zinc has fallen under pressure. The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 23,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% [7]. - Industry logic: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has decreased, and some high - cost smelters are facing increased losses. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory of zinc ingots has decreased [8]. - Strategy recommendation: Enterprises are recommended to sell hedging and actively lay out on rallies. In the medium - long term, zinc supply increases and demand decreases, and it is still a short - allocation in the sector. The attention range for Shanghai zinc is [22,800, 23,300] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [3,050, 3,100] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - Market performance: The aluminum price has fallen from a high level, and the alumina price has stabilized at a low level. The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% [10][11]. - Industry logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost of some aluminum enterprises in the southwest region may increase due to the approaching dry season. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased slightly, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has decreased. For alumina, the overseas bauxite shipment has returned to normal, and the inventory has continued to accumulate [12]. - Strategy recommendation: Take profits in the short term and wait and see, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21,900 - 22,900] yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - Market performance: The nickel price rebounds under pressure, and the stainless steel price rebounds. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 125,710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82% [14][15]. - Industry logic: Indonesia has significantly reduced the nickel ore production target for 2026. The inventory of nickel at home and abroad remains at a high level. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak [16]. - Strategy recommendation: Take profits and wait and see in the short term, paying attention to the change of stainless steel inventory. The main operating range for nickel is [120,000 - 131,000] yuan/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main contract LC2605 has risen and then fallen, hitting the daily limit at the end of the session [19]. - Industry logic: The weekly production has increased slightly, and the total inventory has maintained a slight de - stocking. However, the production schedule of cathode material factories in January has decreased by more than 10%, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [20]. - Strategy recommendation: Wait and see, with the range of [113,700 - 123,700] yuan/ton [21].

| 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2790 | 2760 | 30 | 1. 09% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 3174.86 | 3143. 71 | 31. 15 | 0. 99% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 3100 | 3100 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3187.5 | 3187.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2241. 25 | 2210 | 31. 25 | 1. 41% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3500 | 3500 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1466. 67 | 1466. 67 | 0 | 0. 00% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Control risks [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, medium - long term short allocation [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rise sharply [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current precious metals market has entered a severely overbought zone, especially silver and platinum. They may either quickly correct to release pressure or digest gains through high - level consolidation. However, the bull market is not over as the long - term upward logic remains unchanged, including the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, rising geopolitical risks, and long - term concerns about currency credit [3][4]. - For base metals, different metals have different market trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - environment, and policy factors [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) 3.1.1 Market Review - Loose liquidity, geopolitical events, and tariff issues have led to a large inflow of funds into precious metals [2]. 3.1.2 Basic Logic - This year, precious metals have been outstanding. Supply - demand imbalance, Fed rate cuts, and capital inflows have jointly driven the sharp rise of silver, platinum, and palladium. But other precious metals except gold face high - level volatility risks in the short term [3]. - The US dollar is depreciating, and the process of de - dollarization is ongoing. The Bloomberg dollar index is having its worst week since June, and the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has dropped by about one basis point to 4.14% [3]. - China will implement strategic export controls on physical silver inventories from January 1, 2026, and the US will decide whether to impose tariffs on silver and platinum by January 17, 2026 [3]. - Geopolitical risks include the US military action in Nigeria and the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict [3]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Gold is recommended for long - term holding due to geopolitical risks, improved liquidity, and continuous central - bank gold purchases. Silver has a long - term bullish logic but is currently in an overbought zone, so risks should be controlled [1]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Market Review - The outer - market is closed for Christmas, and the domestic copper market has an independent trend. The Shanghai copper price has reached a new historical high, breaking through the 100,000 - yuan mark [5][6]. 3.2.2 Industry Logic - The global copper concentrate supply remains tight. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term contract TC is set at $0/ton. High copper prices have significantly suppressed demand, and it is the consumption off - season [6]. 3.2.3 Strategy Recommendation - Hold copper long positions and take partial profits at high prices. Be cautious about high - level corrections. In the medium - long term, copper is still favored as a strategic resource and asset allocation alternative to precious metals [1][7]. 3.3 Zinc 3.3.3 Market Review - The Shanghai zinc price fluctuates narrowly, and the outer - market is closed for Christmas [8][9]. 3.3.4 Industry Logic - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has decreased, and some high - cost smelters may reduce production. It is the consumption off - season, and the overseas zinc inventory has increased, suppressing the upside space [9]. 3.3.5 Strategy Recommendation - Enterprises are advised to sell hedging and actively lay out at high prices. In the medium - long term, zinc is a short - allocation in the sector [1][10]. 3.4 Aluminum 3.4.1 Market Review - The aluminum price continues to rebound, and the alumina price also shows a rebound [11][12]. 3.4.2 Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the cost of aluminum enterprises in south - western China may increase due to the approaching dry season. The inventory shows a mixed trend, and the demand is structurally differentiated. For alumina, the supply is excessive, and the inventory continues to accumulate [13]. 3.4.3 Strategy Recommendation - Take short - term profits on Shanghai aluminum and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21700 - 22800] [14]. 3.5 Nickel 3.5.1 Market Review - The nickel price rebounds again, while the stainless - steel price rebounds and then falls [15][16]. 3.5.2 Industry Logic - Indonesia has significantly reduced the nickel - ore production target for 2026 and plans to tax associated metals. The nickel inventory is at a high level. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased slightly [17]. 3.5.3 Strategy Recommendation - Take short - term profits on nickel and stainless - steel and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change in stainless - steel inventory. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 135000] [18]. 3.6 Lithium Carbonate 3.6.1 Market Review - The main contract LC2605 opens high and goes high, closing above the 130,000 - yuan mark [19]. 3.6.2 Industry Logic - The price remains above the 5 - day moving average. The supply increases slightly, and the demand is supported by high - level capacity utilization of downstream material factories. The total inventory decreases slightly. The early - than - expected resumption of production by CATL may slow down the increase [20]. 3.6.3 Strategy Recommendation - Wait and see in the range of [121700 - 135000] [21].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量小幅上升，表需环比略降，绝对水平仍为同期最低。库存继续正常去化，目前 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 已降至较低水平。铁水产量基本持平，与去年同期相近。目前宏观政策驱动有限，螺纹 | | | | 供需双弱，区间运行的状态仍将维持。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需小幅上升，库存继续下降，但绝对水平仍然偏高，去库速度偏慢。现货 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 相对较弱，基差平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对行情上方空间形成压制，短期或继续 | | | | 维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看空 | 数据来看，铁水环比转增。钢厂按需补库，港口增库。外矿发货仍有冲量预期，阶段性 | | ★ | | 矿价或承压。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭三轮提降落地，四轮提降预期增强。近期部分地区有再次执行环保预警的预期， 当 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 前焦企生产积极性尚可，产区供应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产量环比基本持平，钢 厂维持小幅补库。预计短期跟随焦煤价格区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 临近年末煤矿检修增 ...

中辉能化观点 | 中辉能化观点 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘缓和，油价重返基本面定价。地缘：南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣 | 押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠 | 原油 | | | | 谨慎看空 | 加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和 | ★ | | | 成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油 | 产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | | 成本端承压，供给量上升，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，短线有所反弹， | 大趋势仍向下，成本端偏弱；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH | LPG | | | | 谨慎看空 | ★ | 开工率升至 | 75%，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下 | | | 降。 | | | | | | 现货由涨转跌，弱基差抑制反弹空间。基本面供需双弱，检修降负不足， | LL | 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期 | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但美豆出口数据不佳，利空美盘市场情绪。南美天气降雨改善， | | 豆粕 | | 市场缺乏利多驱动。本周国内最新及豆粕库存环比减少改善，但同比偏高，12 月供 | | ★ | 短线反弹 | 应预计暂充足，但一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，现货价格表 | | | | 现抗跌。圣诞节美豆休市期间豆粕反弹。关注美豆出口能否改善及南美天气情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，仓单库存压力有所减轻。但全球丰产、进 | | 菜粕 | | 口多元化及消费淡季弱化看多预期。菜粕短期以跟随豆粕趋势为主，菜粕一季度供 | | ★ | 短线反弹 | 应整体偏紧，库存压力缓解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。关注澳籽压榨和进 | | | | 口政策、中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 马棕榈油 12月20日最新产量数据环比下降。12月马棕榈油累库的可能性依然存在， | | 棕榈油 | 止跌反弹 | 短线以反弹对待，追多谨慎，注意仓位及操作节奏。昨日公布的前 25 日出口数据 | | ★ | | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish rebound [1] - LPG: Cautious short [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautious chasing up [3] - Ethylene glycol: Rebound short [3] - Methanol: Sideways with a bearish bias [3] - Urea: Cautious chasing up [3] - Natural gas: Cautious short [6] - Asphalt: Bearish rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [6] 2. Report's Core Views - The geopolitical uncertainty in South America has increased, leading to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the overall supply of crude oil is in surplus during the off - season [1][10]. - LPG is under pressure from the cost side and an increase in supply volume, showing a weak trend [1][15]. - L has weak supply and demand fundamentals, with low - price transactions improving but weak basis suppressing the rebound space [1][20]. - PP has a large increase in warehouse receipts, and the demand side is in the off - season, facing high de - stocking pressure [1][24]. - PVC has high inventory that suppresses the rebound space, and the supply reduction is insufficient during the off - season [1][28]. - PTA has relatively healthy short - term fundamentals and tight supply and demand, but there is a risk of negative feedback from the demand side and a stockpiling expectation in January [3][30]. - Ethylene glycol has an expectation of stockpiling in December, with low valuation but lack of upward drivers [3][33]. - Methanol has port inventory accumulation and weakening demand, and the supply pressure remains in December [3][37]. - Urea's supply - side pressure is expected to increase in late December, and the demand side is weak, but there are still arbitrage opportunities at home and abroad [3][41]. - Natural gas prices are under pressure due to relatively mild weather and sufficient supply [6][47]. - Asphalt is affected by the weak cost of oil prices and the overall loose supply - demand situation, but short - term prices are boosted by South American geopolitics [6][50]. - Glass has a high inventory and weak supply and demand, and the real - estate market is in an adjustment cycle [6][55]. - Soda ash has a stable supply in the short - term but a long - term loose supply pattern, and the demand is insufficient [6][59]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight on Christmas, WTI and Brent had no quotes, while SC rose 0.09% [9]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term, the South American geopolitical uncertainty boosts oil prices; in the long - term, the off - season supply surplus and inventory accumulation put downward pressure on oil prices [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is affected by US interception of Venezuelan oil tankers and a reduction in CPC mixed crude shipments; demand in Japan increased in November; and US inventory data shows a complex situation [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, and pay attention to the range of [440 - 450] for SC [12]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On December 25, the PG main contract closed at 4095 yuan/ton, up 0.76% [14]. - **Basic Logic**: It is closely related to the cost of crude oil. The supply is increasing, while the demand from the chemical industry has some resilience [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, and pay attention to the range of [4000 - 4100] for PG [16]. 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The price of the L05 contract decreased, and the basis and other indicators changed [18]. - **Basic Logic**: Low - price transactions improved, but the weak basis restricts the rebound. The supply is sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is weakening [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, exit short positions and wait and see; long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Hold the short position of the LP05 spread, and pay attention to the range of [6300 - 6450] [20]. 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The price of the PP05 contract decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts increased significantly [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increased, and the demand side entered the off - season. The PDH profit is low, increasing the expectation of maintenance [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, short based on the moving average; long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Short the MTO05 spread, and pay attention to the range of [6150 - 6350] [24]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The price of the V05 contract decreased, and the basis and warehouse receipts changed [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The continuous decline of thermal coal and high inventory suppress the rebound. The supply reduction is insufficient during the off - season, but some marginal devices are reducing loads [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions; long - term, wait for inventory reduction to go long on dips. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices, and pay attention to the range of [4650 - 4800] [28]. 3.6 PTA - **Market Review**: The price of the TA05 contract decreased, and various fundamental indicators such as processing fees and inventory changed [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fees have improved. The supply side has large - scale planned maintenance, and the demand side is currently good but expected to weaken. There is a stockpiling expectation in January [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, and pay attention to the range of [5169 - 5299] [31]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The price of the EG05 contract decreased, and inventory and other indicators changed [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic supply load increased, the overseas devices are expected to reduce loads, the port inventory is rising, and there is a stockpiling expectation in December [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds, and pay attention to the range of [3750 - 3860] for EG05 [34]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: The spot price in Taicang weakened slightly, and the port inventory and social inventory changed [37]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic device load increased, the overseas devices decreased load, the import volume is expected to be high in December, and the demand side is slightly weak [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase the rise on the market. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the methanol 05 contract [39]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: The price of the urea futures contracts changed, and various fundamental indicators such as production capacity utilization and inventory changed [40]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in late December, the demand side is weak, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level, but there are still arbitrage opportunities at home and abroad [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to be sideways with a bearish bias. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, and pay attention to the range of [1720 - 1750] for UR05 [43]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On December 24, the NG main contract closed at 4.242 dollars/MMBtu, down 3.77% [46]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand support for gas prices is weakening due to mild weather, and the supply is relatively sufficient [47]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of [3.602 - 4.054] for NG [47]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On December 25, the BU main contract closed at 2995 yuan/ton, down 0.03% [49]. - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly affected by the cost of crude oil. The supply - demand situation is loose, but the short - term price is boosted by South American geopolitics [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions. Pay attention to the range of [2950 - 3050] for BU [51]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: The price of the FG05 contract decreased slightly, and the basis and other indicators changed [53]. - **Basic Logic**: The inventory in the factory is increasing, the supply and demand are weak, and the real - estate market is in an adjustment cycle [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, wait and see; long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of [1000 - 1050] for FG [55]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The price of the SA05 contract remained unchanged, and the basis and warehouse receipts changed [57]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is stable in the short - term, but the long - term supply pattern is loose, and the demand is insufficient [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see. Long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of [1150 - 1200] for SA [59].