| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹产量及表需环比继续下降，库总存环比虽下降，但杭州地区库存仍在上升，处于近 | 螺纹钢 | 年来同期最高水平，基本面总体偏弱。铁水产量环比回升，虽然目前钢厂利润一般，但 | | | | 谨慎看空 | ★ | 无主动减限产意愿。目前跌至前低附近，考验 | 3000 | 处支撑，或低位震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 热卷表需及产量小幅回落，库存逆季节性小幅上升，显示一定的库存压力。铁水产量转 | 谨慎看空 | ★ | 增，钢厂减产意愿不强。中期区间运行，短期或低位震荡反复。 | | 铁矿石 | 数据来看，铁水环比转增，部分高炉复产。钢厂检修信息增加，后续关注其落地情况。 | 谨慎看多 | ★ | 钢厂、港口累库。外矿发到货缩量，静态基本面中性偏多。短期矿价坚挺。 | | 现货第四轮提涨全面落地，但焦企亏损状况未见改善，市场对于第五轮存在分歧。从需 | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 求来看，铁水产量环比回升，钢厂暂未开启大面积检修，短期阶段性需求释放后补库意 | | | ★ | 愿有所下降。盘面快速下行后 ...

1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西未来十五天降雨预计略低于正常水平。目前现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价 | | 豆粕 | | 心理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴 | | ★ | 短线整理 | 西种植升水可能，市场看多情绪炒作，美农 11 月报告显示美豆期末库存虽然环比 | | | | 回落，但与 8 月期末库存预估一致。本周国内大豆及豆粕库存环比回落，短线关注 | | | | 调整后逢低短多机会，关注巴西大豆种植天气情况。 | | | | 近日加方表示暂无法取消对中国关税，导致市场对于中加贸易关税改善预期降温。 | | 菜粕 | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨。港口库存依然同比偏高叠加豆粕调整，昨日菜粕延 | | ★ | 短线回落整理 | 续回落调整。短线关注调整后看多机会。做空谨慎对待。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 棕榈油阶段性进入供需转弱状态，11 月马棕榈油前 15 日出口数据环比较弱，累库 | | | 偏弱整理 | 预期依然存在，短期阶段性调整行情。近日进口盘面利润快速回升修复， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: High - level under pressure [1] - Aluminum: High - level under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The market is in a liquidity vacuum, magnifying bearish sentiment. Short - term, the US employment situation is the biggest concern, and the probability of interest rate cuts has decreased [1][3]. - Gold has few short - term major drivers, and long - term trading is recommended. In the long - run, the geopolitical order is being reshaped, and central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its long - term strategic allocation value [1][4]. - Silver has followed the decline in the short - term due to a lack of market data. In the long - run, global policy stimulus will boost demand, and there is a continuous supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is under short - term pressure and is testing the support at 85,000 yuan. In the medium - to - long - term, the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand are bullish factors [1][7]. - Zinc is under pressure in the short - term due to weak demand in the off - season. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing [1][11]. - Lead is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The production of some lead smelters in the north has recovered, while the production of large and medium - sized lead battery enterprises has decreased, leading to an increase in social inventory and short - term pressure on prices [1]. - Tin is under high - level pressure in the short - term due to slow resumption of overseas tin mines, tight concentrates in Yunnan, and weak downstream electronic consumption demand [1]. - Aluminum is under high - level pressure in the short - term due to the continuous surplus of upstream alumina, high operating rates of domestic electrolytic aluminum, and a slowdown in inventory reduction in mainstream consumption areas [1]. - Nickel is weak due to the continuous increase in overseas LME nickel inventory, high domestic nickel inventory, and weakening downstream stainless steel consumption [1][18]. - Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance range - bound state in November. Supply has increased by 1.67% month - on - month, and there are rumors of production cuts in downstream industries [1]. - Polysilicon is in high - level oscillation. Spot market performance is flat, and downstream profit losses may limit demand, but there are still expectations of capacity integration [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices have fallen from highs due to profit - taking and exchange window guidance. The total inventory has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks, and it is advisable to go long after stabilization [1][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Short - term trading lacks an anchor, bearish sentiment is magnified, and gold and silver are in range - bound adjustment [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment data shows an increase in initial and continued jobless claims, and there is a large - scale layoff warning. There is a liquidity vacuum due to changes in the Fed's attitude and domestic political situation. In the long - run, gold may benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3][4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, pay attention to the support of domestic gold at 920 and silver around 11,500. Long - term value - allocated positions should be held, and short - term trading should be cautious [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and adjusting [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased both month - on - month and more than expected. Consumption is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises'开工 rates are weak. The global copper concentrate supply is tight, and overseas copper inventory is increasing [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, copper is under pressure and testing the support at 85,000 yuan. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still bullish. Short - term, pay attention to the ranges [84,500, 87,500] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [10,500, 11,000] US dollars/ton for London copper [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc is oscillating weakly [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production has declined, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to fall. Refined zinc enterprises are in a loss state. Consumption is in the off - season, and overseas LME zinc inventory has increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is under pressure and running weakly due to a cold macro and sector sentiment and weak demand in the off - season. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the view of selling on rallies. Pay attention to the ranges [22,000, 22,500] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2,950, 3,050] US dollars/ton for London zinc [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina is in a low - level weak trend [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the Fed's year - end interest rate cut expectation has weakened. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have cut production, and domestic inventory has increased slightly. The demand side shows a structural differentiation. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea has ended, and domestic bauxite production has resumed. The market is in a surplus state in the short - term [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is advisable to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term. Pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21,100 - 21,800] yuan/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices continue to be weak, and stainless steel is under pressure at a low level [17]. - **Industrial Logic**: The Fed's year - end interest rate cut expectation has weakened. Indonesia plans to lower the nickel production target in 2026, and global refined nickel inventory has reached a five - year high. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has faded, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is advisable to take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [114,000 - 116,000] yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 rose and then fell, with the late - session gain narrowing to less than 1% [21]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals remain in a tight supply - demand situation, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. Domestic production has reached a new high, but the shortage of raw materials limits the production increase. Terminal market demand is strong, and the market focuses on the demand side [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for opportunities to go long during callbacks or sideways consolidation in the range [91,000 - 94,000] yuan/ton [23].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 螺纹产量及表需环比继续下降，库总存环比虽下降，但杭州地区库存仍在上升，处于近 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 年来同期最高水平，基本面总体偏弱。铁水产量环比回升，虽然目前钢厂利润一般，但 | | ★ | | 无主动减限产意愿。目前跌至前低附近，考验 3000 处支撑，或低位震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷表需及产量小幅回落，库存逆季节性小幅上升，显示一定的库存压力。铁水产量转 | | ★ | | 增，钢厂减产意愿不强。中期区间运行，短期或低位震荡反复。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 数据来看，铁水环比转增，部分高炉复产。钢厂检修信息增加，后续关注其落地情况。 | | ★ | | 钢厂、港口累库。外矿发到货缩量，静态基本面中性偏多。短期矿价坚挺。 | | | | 现货第四轮提涨全面落地，但焦企亏损状况未见改善，市场对于第五轮存在分歧。从需 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 求来看，铁水产量环比回升，钢厂暂未开启大面积检修，短期阶段性需求释放后补库意 | | ★ | | 愿有所下降。盘面快速下行后行情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, it provides specific views such as long - term holding for gold, silver, and copper; rebound - pressured for zinc; high - level pressured for lead, tin, and aluminum; weak for nickel; range - bound for industrial silicon; high - level oscillating for polysilicon; and bullish for lithium carbonate [1]. Core Views - The core view of the report is that the prices of various metals are affected by multiple factors including Fed's monetary policy, industry supply - demand relationship, and macro - economic data. Different metals have different price trends and investment strategies. For example, gold and silver are suitable for long - term value investment, while zinc is recommended for short - selling on rebounds [1]. Summary by Metal Categories Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver prices fell and then oscillated due to a lack of short - term trading anchors and the amplification of negative news from Fed officials. SHFE gold dropped 2.49% and COMEX gold fell 0.96%; SHFE silver declined 3.57% and COMEX silver decreased 0.01 [2][3]. - **Underlying Logic**: Fed hawkish officials' statements reduced the probability of a December rate cut, but some supported rate cuts. There was a lack of US economic data, leading to sentiment - based trading. In the long run, gold benefits from global monetary easing, a decline in the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [4][5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term value investors should hold their positions, while short - term investors should be cautious. Short - term attention should be paid to the support levels of domestic gold at 920 and silver around 11500 [5]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.10%, LME copper dropped 0.73%, and COMEX copper fell 1.20% [6][7]. - **Underlying Logic**: In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline further in November. Consumption entered the off - season, and the global copper concentrate supply remained tight. However, high copper prices restricted demand, and the global visible copper inventory was at a historically high level [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the Fed's hawkish stance, industry hedging should add option protection, reduce positions, and control risks strictly. In the long - term, copper is still optimistic. Short - term attention should be paid to the price range of Shanghai copper at [84500, 87500] yuan/ton and LME copper at [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 0.22%, and LME zinc dropped 0.83% [9][10]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production declined, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to fall. Consumption entered the off - season, and the domestic zinc ingot export window opened. Zinc was in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the Fed's hawkish stance and poor domestic macro - data, zinc is pressured to run weakly. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase while demand decreases. It is recommended to short on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the price range of Shanghai zinc at [22000, 22500] and LME zinc at [2950, 3050] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices were pressured to decline, and alumina stabilized at a low level. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 0.53%, and LME aluminum dropped 0.38% [12][13]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and domestic production remained high. The destocking of aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas slowed down, and demand entered the off - season. The alumina market was in an oversupply situation in the short term [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21200 - 22000] [15]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices continued to weaken, and stainless steel rebounded at a low level. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract decreased by 0.11%, and LME nickel dropped 0.40% [16][17]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas Fed's year - end rate - cut expectation weakened. Global refined nickel inventory reached a five - year high. The stainless steel market entered the off - season, and downstream demand was weak [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [115000 - 117000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed at the daily limit, with significant position - increasing and upward movement [21]. - **Underlying Logic**: The supply - demand situation remained tight, with total inventory decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks and the decline accelerating. Terminal market demand was strong, and the impact of supply resumption was weakened [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Existing long positions should take profits on rallies, and new positions should wait for opportunities to go long during pullbacks or sideways consolidation in the range of [92000 - 99000] [23].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西未来十五天降雨预计略低于正常水平。目前现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价 | | 豆粕 | | 心理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴 | | ★ | 情绪偏多 | 西种植升水可能，市场看多情绪炒作，美农 11 月报告显示美豆期末库存虽然环比 | | | | 回落，但与 8 月期末库存预估一致。本周国内大豆及豆粕库存环比回落，短线关注 | | | | 调整后逢低短多机会，关注巴西大豆种植天气情况。 | | | | 近日加方表示暂无法取消对中国关税，导致市场对于中加贸易关税改善预期降温。 | | 菜粕 | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨。港口库存依然同比偏高叠加豆粕下跌，昨日菜粕延 | | ★ | 情绪偏多 | 续回落调整。短线关注调整后看多机会。做空谨慎对待。关注中加贸易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 棕榈油阶段性进入供需转弱状态，11 月马棕榈油前 15 日出口数据环比较弱，累库 | | | 偏弱整理 | 预期依然存在，短期阶段性调整行情。近日进口盘面利润快速回升修复，棕榈油追 ...

中辉能化观点 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | PTA | 加工费整体偏低，装置复产延期叠加检修力度有所提升（虹港石化检 修、逸盛宁波本月下旬检修、英力士检修中，威联化学降负），供应端压 | | PX/PTA | | 力有所缓解；需求略显改善，终端订单短期企稳，但稳定性有待跟踪。成 | | | 谨慎看多 本端 | PX 国内外均有所降负（上海石化、中化泉州停车，越南 NSRP 降负）， | | ★ | | 走势偏强。TA12 月存累库预期。短期来看，基本面有所改善，但原油承 | | | | 压，反弹高度或将有限。策略：单边关注逢低布局多单机会；套利关注做 | | | 扩 | ta 加工费（即多 pta，空 px）。 | | | | 近期国内煤制装置检修有所增加，开工负荷下行（红四方临停、正达凯检 | | | | 修、广汇降负、河南能源延后重启）、海外装置略有提负（台湾南亚 1#重 | | 乙二醇 | | 启），新装置投产（裕龙石化投产；宁夏畅亿、襄矿泓通计划投产）叠加 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 检修装置恢复 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market Outlook**: The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, red dates, and live pigs, providing different views and investment suggestions for each variety [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The market sentiment is bullish, but due to the lack of obvious bullish drivers, caution is needed when chasing long positions. There is a risk of short - term adjustment following the decline of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to the soybean planting situation in Brazil [1][2][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The market sentiment is bullish, but the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited due to the consumption off - season and relatively high port inventories. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][4][6]. - **Palm Oil**: It is in a weak consolidation state. There is a continued inventory build - up expectation, and short - term staged adjustment is expected. Caution is needed when chasing long positions, and participation is recommended when the price stabilizes at a low level [1][7][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate bullishly in the short term. Although there is no strong bullish driver, it is treated as a rebound for now. Attention should be paid to the weather in Brazil [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is expected to be bullish in the short term. The zero - start of coastal oil mills, zero - inventory of rapeseed, and significant reduction in port inventories have driven up the domestic rapeseed oil price [1]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to adjust in the short term. The high supply suppresses the market in the short term, but the terminal inventory is being depleted, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to gradually converge in the long - term. Mid - to long - term investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips, and short - term investors can consider range trading or short - term reverse arbitrage [1][9][12]. - **Red Dates**: A bearish attitude is recommended in the long - term under the loose supply - demand pattern. Most of the premium caused by the speculation of a significant reduction in production has been squeezed out, and short - term observation is recommended [1][13][16]. - **Live Pigs**: There is a risk of a rebound. Supply pressure remains in Q4, and attention should be paid to the entry of second - fattening pigs. The terminal demand is gradually stabilizing. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts, and attention can be paid to the 03 contract and reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][17][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 3092 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 0.68% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3124 yuan/ton, up 17.43 yuan or 0.56% [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 7, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 1033.4 million tons, up 70.50 million tons from last week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 761.95 million tons, up 51.16 million tons or 7.20% from last week, and the soybean meal inventory is 99.86 million tons, down 15.44 million tons or 13.39% from last week [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The rainfall in Brazil is expected to be slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days. The sales pressure of spot oil mills has decreased, and there is a psychological tendency to support prices. The issue of US soybean import tariffs has not been effectively resolved, and the market sentiment is bullish, but there is a risk of short - term adjustment following the decline of US soybeans [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 2490 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.08% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2588.95 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 7, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.21 million tons from last week [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The market's expectation of improving China - Canada trade tariffs has cooled. Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory and zero - crushing. However, due to the consumption off - season and relatively high port inventories, the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The latest futures price (main contract daily close) is 8644 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan or 1.23% from the previous day. The national average price is 8655 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.80% [7]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of November 7, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory is 59.73 million tons, up 0.45 million tons or 0.76% from last week, and up 5.85 million tons or 10.86% from last year [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand. There was inventory build - up in October, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of November was weak. There is still an expectation of inventory build - up, and it is in a short - term staged adjustment [1][8]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The latest price of the main contract (CF2601) is 13450 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day [9]. - **Inventory Situation**: The national commercial inventory has increased by 52.17 million tons to 284.78 million tons, lower than the same period by 27.88 million tons; the Xinjiang commercial inventory has increased to 183.9 million tons, higher than the same period by 26.96 million tons [11]. - **Market Analysis**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested; in India, the daily listing volume of new cotton is about 1.4 million tons; in Pakistan, the new cotton listing volume has increased by 3% year - on - year. In China, the new cotton picking is basically completed, and the supply is high in the short term, but the terminal inventory is being depleted, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to converge in the long - term [1][10][12]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The latest price of the main contract (CJ2601) is 9190 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day [13]. - **Inventory Situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9840 tons, up 299 tons from last week and up 4140 tons from the same period [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season red date production is expected to be between 500,000 and 600,000 tons, and the supply is loose. The mainstream purchase price in Xinjiang is weak, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly [1][15][16]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The latest price of the main contract (lh2601) is 11775 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan or 0.72% from the previous day. The national average spot price of external ternary pigs is 11940 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.33% [17]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Situation**: The national sample enterprise's pig inventory has increased slightly, and the slaughter volume has increased by 11.85% month - on - month. The terminal demand is gradually stabilizing, but the supply pressure remains in Q4 [17][19]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply pressure is postponed to December, and there is a risk of a rebound. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts, and attention can be paid to the 03 contract and reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][17][19].

资料来源：iFinD，mysteel，中辉期货 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹产量及表需环比继续下降，库总存环比虽下降，但杭州地区库存仍在上升，处于近 | 螺纹钢 | 年来同期最高水平，基本面总体偏弱。铁水产量环比回升，虽然目前钢厂利润一般，但 | | | | | | | | | 谨慎看多 | ★ | 无主动减限产意愿。目前跌至前低附近，考验 | 3000 | 处支撑，或低位震荡反复。 | | | | | | | 热卷 | 热卷表需及产量小幅回落，库存逆季节性小幅上升，显示一定的库存压力。铁水产量转 | 谨慎看多 | ★ | 增，钢厂减产意愿不强。中期区间运行，短期或低位震荡反复。 | | | | | | | 铁矿石 | 数据来看，铁水环比转增，部分高炉复产。钢厂检修信息增加，后续关注其落地情况。 | 谨慎看多 | ★ | 钢厂、港口累库。外矿发到货缩量，静态基本面中性偏多。短期矿价坚挺。 | | | | | | | 现货第四轮提涨全面落地 ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 数据确实背景之下，美联储联储鹰派官员集体横跳表态激进，同时出现流动性危机。 | | | 长线持有 | 黄金价格回落，短期大驱动较少，长线交易为主。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确 | | ★ | | 定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期市场数据空白，市场交易没有锚点，全是情绪博弈，白银继续下跌。长期来看 | | | 长线持有 | 白银基本面来看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币投放提供流动 | | ★ | | 性。关注 11500 附近支撑。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储官员放鹰，国内宏观数据不佳，亚太战争风险剧增，市场情绪谨慎，铜承压 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 回落，建议多空均降低仓位，警惕黑天鹅风险，中长期，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求 | | ★ | | 爆发，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 宏观和板块情绪转冷，消费淡季需求疲软，锌承压偏弱运行，中长期看，锌供增需 | | ★ | 反弹承压 | 减，维持反弹逢高沽空观点。 | | 铅 ...