1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **豆粕**: Short - term consolidation. The soybean planting weather in the US is generally smooth, South America has a bumper harvest, and domestic ports and oil mills are in the inventory accumulation stage. The market is cautious about short - selling before the US bio - diesel policy is finalized [1]. - **菜粕**: Short - term oscillation. The decline in rapeseed imports from July to September, along with the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, support the price. However, the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is not conducive to consumption expectations [1]. - **棕榈 oil**: Short - term bullish bias. The inventory accumulation cycle of palm oil in Southeast Asia has begun, but there are bullish factors such as the low - price procurement demand from China and India, the US bio - diesel policy, and Malaysia's B20 policy. The US threat to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesia may benefit Malaysian palm oil [1]. - **棉花**: Rebound under pressure. The sowing of US cotton is basically completed, and the export has increased significantly. Domestically, new cotton is growing well, and the actual sown area is higher than expected. The downstream orders have weakened after a short - term rebound [1]. - **红枣**: Wide - range oscillation. The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and there are no obvious signs of significant yield reduction. However, the old - crop inventory is at a historical high, and the demand is weak in the short term [1]. - **生猪**: Weak oscillation. The出栏 rhythm of leading enterprises and the entry of secondary fattening have temporarily alleviated the supply pressure, but the pig production capacity has not been cleared, and the short - term price is supported but under pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Variety 豆粕 - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2954 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2888.86 yuan/ton, down 8.28 yuan or 0.29% [2]. - **Supply**: As of July 4, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 788000 tons, a decrease of 20800 tons from the previous week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 636400 tons, a decrease of 29470 tons or 4.43% from the previous week [3]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory was 82240 tons, an increase of 13080 tons or 18.91% from the previous week [3]. 菜粕 - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2611 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.97% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2594.21 yuan/ton, up 28.42 yuan or 1.11% [4]. - **Supply**: As of July 4, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 16200 tons, a decrease of 2600 tons from the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory was 460 tons, a decrease of 640 tons from the previous week; the unfulfilled contract was 4900 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous week [7]. 棕榈油 - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 53510 tons, a decrease of 230 tons or 0.43% from the previous week, and an increase of 6200 tons or 13.1% from the same period last year [8]. - **Market Situation**: The US threat to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesia may lead to a shift in palm oil export shares from Indonesia to Malaysia. The unexpected inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in June has a negative impact on market sentiment [8]. 棉花 - **Price Information**: The main contract CF2509 of Zhengzhou cotton increased by 0.69% to 13865 yuan/ton, ICE cotton decreased by 0.03% to 67.76 cents/pound, and the domestic spot price increased by 0.08% to 15201 yuan/ton [10]. - **International Situation**: The US cotton planting area in 2025 is 10.1 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The latest excellent - good rate is 52%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The latest weekly export of US cotton has increased significantly. India's cotton sown area has increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress is 24%, an increase of 2% year - on - year. Brazil's new - cotton harvest is accelerating, and the output is expected to increase by 5.7% year - on - year to 3.913 million tons [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: The new cotton in Xinjiang has entered the full - bloom stage. The actual sown area of cotton in the country in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The industrial and commercial inventory of domestic cotton has decreased by 132300 tons to 3.5976 million tons. The import of cotton resources in May is at a 10 - year low [11]. 红枣 - **Price Information**: The main contract CJ2601 of jujube increased by 2.12% to 10580 yuan/ton [14]. - **Production Area Situation**: The southern Xinjiang production area is in the fruit - setting period. The high - temperature situation in July has been alleviated. The three - party research in the production area shows that the fruit - setting situation is good, and there are no obvious signs of significant yield reduction [14]. - **Inventory and Demand**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from the previous week, and higher than the same period by 4619 tons. The demand is still in the off - season, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average [14]. 生猪 - **Price Information**: The main contract Lh2509 of live pigs increased by 1.09% to 14375 yuan/ton, and the domestic live - pig spot price decreased by 0.27% to 15000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply**: The national sample enterprise live - pig inventory is 37199300 tons, an increase of 11520 tons or 0.31% from the previous month; the live - pig slaughter volume is 11.2559 million heads, an increase of 167700 heads or 1.51% from the previous month. The national inventory of fertile sows is 40.42 million heads, an increase of 40000 heads or 0.1% from the previous month [15]. - **Demand**: The fat - lean price difference has widened, stimulating secondary fattening. The downstream slaughter volume and开机 rate are still at a low level, and the market demand for pork is showing a marginal decline [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Weak Outlook**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PX, PTA/PR, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, asphalt [1][2][3] - **Rebound with Upside Potential**: PVC, glass, soda ash, caustic soda [1][2] - **Bullish Rebound**: L, PP [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure is rising, and oil prices are under downward pressure. OPEC+ is increasing production, and demand growth is slower than supply growth. Consider short - term short positions with call option protection [1][5][6]. - **LPG**: Cost is falling, and supply is abundant. The market is weak. Short - term short positions are recommended [1][7][9]. - **L**: Supply and demand are both weak. There is a short - term rebound, but a long - term decline is expected. Sell - hedging can be considered [1][11]. - **PP**: The market sentiment is positive, and export margins are improving. There is a short - term rebound, but long - term supply pressure exists. Consider 9 - 1 positive spreads [1][13]. - **PVC**: Macroeconomic sentiment drives the market. There is a short - term rebound, but long - term supply pressure may limit the upside. A short - long and long - short strategy is recommended [1][16]. - **PX**: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease. There is a short - term correction. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][18]. - **PTA/PR**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weakening. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][21]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to be loose, and demand is weakening. Look for high - shorting opportunities [1][23]. - **Glass**: Policy expectations are positive. There is a short - term rebound. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [2]. - **Soda Ash**: High supply and high inventory. The rebound is limited. Consider short - term short positions [2][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is a short - term rebound due to inventory reduction and subsidy. The price center is moving up [2][33]. - **Methanol**: Supply is abundant, and demand is weakening. Hold existing short positions and add short on rebounds [3][35]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Look for high - shorting opportunities [3]. - **Asphalt**: Cost is falling, and supply is abundant. Consider short - term short positions [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 4.39%, Brent dropped 2.21%, and SC rose 0.89% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in August. The current consumption season and Saudi's price increase provide some support, but supply pressure is rising. US crude inventory increased by 710 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 270 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 82.5 million barrels [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is in excess. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Short positions with call option protection are recommended. SC is expected to trade between 500 - 520 [6]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On July 10, the PG main contract closed at 4199 yuan/ton, up 0.50%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [7]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the main factor. Although there is short - term support, the subsequent OPEC+ production increase will bring downward pressure. PDH device profit decreased, and inventory increased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil is in excess. In the short - term, the trend is weak. Short positions with call option protection are recommended. PG is expected to trade between 4130 - 4230 [9]. L - **Basic Logic**: The domestic polyethylene market is in a weak situation. Although the oil price may rise, the downstream demand is in the off - season. New devices are expected to be put into production in July - August, and the long - term outlook is weak. There is a short - term rebound, and sell - hedging can be considered [11]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP futures prices rose slightly, and the export margin improved. The main contract basis weakened, and the inventory increased slightly [13]. - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is weak, and the supply pressure exists. There is a short - term rebound, and 9 - 1 positive spreads can be considered [13]. PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC futures prices rose, and the basis weakened. The inventory increased, and the cost support decreased [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The production is expected to increase, and the demand is stable in the off - season. The inventory pressure is increasing. There is a short - term rebound, and a short - long and long - short strategy is recommended [16]. PX - **Market Performance**: On July 4, the PX spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6672 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread was 90 yuan/ton, and the basis was 448 yuan/ton [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are high, and the demand from PTA is weakening. The supply - demand balance is expected to ease. PXN is not low, and the basis is high. Look for high - shorting opportunities [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX is expected to trade between 6670 - 6790 [19]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On July 4, the PTA spot price in East China was 4835 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis was 125 yuan/ton [20]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is expected to increase with new device launches. The demand from downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weakening. Inventory is decreasing, but the overall situation is neutral. Look for high - shorting opportunities [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA is expected to trade between 4650 - 4750 [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On July 5, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4361 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4277 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, and the basis was 84 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose with more device restarts and expected increase in arrivals. The demand from downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weakening. Low inventory provides some support. Look for high - shorting opportunities [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG is expected to trade between 4280 - 4330 [24]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot price was stable, and the futures price rose slightly. The basis narrowed, and the inventory decreased slightly [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The policy is expected to improve the supply - demand situation. Although there is short - term constraint, the price may move up slightly. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to trade between 1070 - 1100 [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The heavy - soda spot price increased, and the futures price rose. The main contract basis decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is at a high level, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. Although the policy provides some support, the long - term situation is still weak. A wide - range oscillation strategy is recommended [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to trade between 1215 - 1245 [30]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The spot price of caustic soda increased in some areas, and the futures price center moved up. The basis strengthened, and the inventory decreased [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is under pressure, but the demand from alumina is recovering. There is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season. Pay attention to the rebound driven by inventory reduction [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH is expected to trade between 2480 - 2530 [33]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On July 4, the methanol spot price in East China was 2446 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2399 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the inventory increased [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic device operation rate is high. The demand from MTO is weakening, and the traditional demand is entering the off - season. The inventory is increasing, and the basis is weakening. Short positions are recommended [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA is expected to trade between 2365 - 2405 [35]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The supply is increasing as the maintenance devices resume production. The demand from industry and agriculture is weak, but the fertilizer export is growing. The cost provides some support. Look for high - shorting opportunities [3]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost of asphalt is falling due to the decline in oil price. The supply is abundant, and the demand is affected by the weather. Short positions are recommended [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range. The dual - easing policy and central bank gold purchases support the price, with a long - term bullish outlook due to uncertainties [1][2][3]. - Silver is likely to experience a strong - level oscillation. The dual - easing environment supports silver demand, but it is significantly influenced by the prices of base metals and gold [1]. - Copper is predicted to oscillate. In the short term, there may be a correction due to demand verification risks, but in the long run, it is still favored as a strategic resource [1][5][6]. - Zinc is expected to rebound. In the short term, it will test the previous high, but in the long term, supply exceeds demand, presenting short - selling opportunities [1][7][8]. - Lead is under pressure. Supply increases in July, and weak downstream consumption leads to inventory accumulation and price rebound pressure [1]. - Tin is facing pressure on its rebound. Supply has not fully recovered, but consumption has entered the off - season, and inventory has been accumulating [1]. - Aluminum is expected to rebound and then decline. The off - season is approaching, and demand is weakening, while production capacity remains high [1][9][10]. - Nickel is under pressure on its rebound. Inventory pressure persists, and downstream consumption is in the off - season [1][11][12]. - Industrial silicon is expected to rebound. Cost support exists, but high inventory restricts the upward space [1]. - Polysilicon is likely to trade in a high - level range. Policy expectations and positive price feedback in the industrial chain support its strength, but prices are high and volatile [1]. - Lithium carbonate is under pressure. The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and it will mainly trade in a range, with attention on the 65,000 resistance [1][13][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Review**: Tariff risks have temporarily subsided. Monetary easing and central bank gold purchases support the price [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Most Fed officials support interest rate cuts. Russia has increased its gold holdings, and the long - term trend of dual - easing and global order reshaping supports the long - term bullish view of gold [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may experience short - term adjustments, but the US dollar is in a medium - term weak trend. Gold has strong support around 760, and long - term investment opportunities can be considered [4]. Silver - **Market Review**: Not explicitly stated, but it is influenced by the dual - easing environment and the prices of other metals [1]. - **Basic Logic**: The dual - easing policy supports silver demand, and high tariffs increase friction costs for some products [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the pressure at the previous high and control positions, with a price range of [8800 - 9075] [1]. Copper - **Market Review**: US copper has been trading in a high - level range, while LME copper and SHFE copper have stopped falling and rebounded [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and electrolytic copper production has increased. Global visible inventory is at a low level, but high prices suppress demand, and terminal consumption has entered the off - season [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, beware of demand verification risks, but expect limited downside. Buy on dips after corrections. In the long term, be optimistic about copper due to the tight global copper mine supply [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc has oscillated and rebounded, testing the previous high [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc mines is abundant, and processing fees are rebounding. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and downstream galvanizing enterprises' performance is lower than in previous years [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc may test the previous high due to various factors, but in the long term, supply exceeds demand. Look for short - selling opportunities, with a price range of [22000 - 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2700 - 2800] for LME zinc [8]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has rebounded and then declined [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, production capacity remains high, and demand is weakening in the off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports are high, and short - term supply is tight due to some enterprise maintenance [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities for SHFE aluminum on rebounds, paying attention to inventory changes. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [10]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have rebounded and then declined, and stainless steel has also declined [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weakening, and domestic production may decline. Nickel supply - demand improvement is limited, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless steel production cuts have eased inventory pressure, but consumption is still weak in the off - season [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities for nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, paying attention to stainless steel production cut trends, with a price range of [118000 - 122000] for nickel [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 has slightly reduced positions and traded weakly in a range [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and inventory is at a new high. Downstream demand shows an off - season non - weak phenomenon, but supply changes are in line with expectations [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade in a high - level range in the short term, paying attention to the 65,000 resistance, with a price range of [63600 - 64600] [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short term, and short in the medium term [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short term [10][12][13] - Coking Coal: Bullish in the short term [14][16][17] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with oscillations in the short term [18][19][20] Core Views - The recent over - capacity reduction and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment and improved expectations. The trading logic has shifted from industrial fundamentals to macro - sentiment and policy expectations [1][4][5] - For iron ore, the anti - involution policy has limited impact on the black industry, with short - term emotional trading [1][8][9] - Coke's fundamentals remain relatively stable, with short - term market sentiment improving [12][13] - Coking coal supply is expected to increase later, but short - term market sentiment is positive [16][17] - Ferroalloys' short - term prices are dominated by market sentiment, with potential for price increases due to cost factors [19][20] Summary by Variety Steel Rebar - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, total inventory decreased slightly, and it shows obvious off - season characteristics. Hot metal production dropped below 2.4 million tons but remained at a high level [1][4] - Market: The trading logic has shifted, and the market is bullish under the background of basis repair, with a price range of [3120, 3160] [1][5] Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory changed little. The supply - demand is generally balanced with limited fundamental contradictions [1][4] - Market: Driven by strong macro - sentiment and some regional production restriction news, it is bullish, with a price range of [3260, 3300] [1][5] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: Hot metal production is expected to decline slowly. Supply shipments have ended, but arrivals are increasing. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are replenishing inventory as needed. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral [1][8] - Market: Short - term emotional trading is strong. Participate within the range in the short term and short in the medium term, with a price range of [750, 780] [1][8][9] Coke - Supply - demand: Independent coking enterprise production has declined recently, but steel mill and coking enterprise production remains high. Hot metal production is at a high level, ensuring raw material demand. Total inventory decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level [1][12] - Market: Short - term market sentiment has improved, and it is bullish with oscillations, with a price range of [1490, 1520] [1][12][13] Coking Coal - Supply - demand: Domestic production has been stable recently, lower than the same period last year. Some shut - down mines have resumed production in July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory decreased month - on - month but remained high, and spot trading has improved [1][16] - Market: Market sentiment has improved, and it is bullish in the short term, with a price range of [890, 920] [1][16][17] Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - Supply - demand: Supply and demand increased last week, but inventory pressure is still obvious. The cost of ore provides strong support at the bottom. Although hot metal production is high, actual demand may decline in the off - season [1][19] - Market: Short - term price is dominated by market sentiment, expected to be bullish with oscillations. Pay attention to the 6000 yuan/ton mark, with a price range of [5710 - 5905] [1][19][20] Silicon Iron - Supply - demand: Supply and demand increased, and the cost provides weak support. Prices may rise in the coal consumption peak season from July to August, but factory inventory is high, and it is difficult to reduce inventory during the off - season [1][19] - Market: Short - term price is dominated by market sentiment, expected to be bullish with oscillations, with a price range of [5480 - 5670] [1][19][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold market is expected to experience high - level oscillations in the short term and is a strategic long - term allocation due to multiple uncertainties and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [1][3]. - Silver will have strong oscillations, with support around 8700, influenced by the price sentiment of base metals and gold [1]. - Copper is under pressure in the short term, but the long - term outlook remains positive. After a full correction, it is advisable to try long positions with a light position [1][6]. - Zinc will oscillate in the short term, and in the long run, it has an increasing supply and weak demand, so opportunities to short on rallies should be grasped [1][9]. - Lead and tin prices are under pressure to rebound due to increased supply and insufficient demand [1]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound as downstream consumption enters the off - season and inventory accumulates [1][11]. - Nickel prices are under pressure to fall due to supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation [1][13]. - Industrial silicon will rebound, and polysilicon will have high - level oscillations in the short term but is in a state of over - supply in the long term [1]. - Lithium carbonate is under pressure to rebound, and it is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the 65,000 pressure level [1][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold decreased by 1.21% to 766.82, COMEX gold increased by 0.35% to 3323. SHFE silver decreased by 0.60% to 8899, COMEX silver decreased by 0.87% to 37. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.61% to 86.17 [2]. - **Logic**: The Fed's attitude is unclear, Trump's second - wave high - tariff policy is in place, and New Zealand did not cut interest rates as expected. Tariff uncertainties and the long - term trend of global order reshaping and double - easing support the long - bull logic of gold [3]. - **Strategy**: Gold can be considered for long - term investment when the opportunity arises as it has strong support around 760. Silver will have range oscillations with strong support around 8700 [4]. Copper - **Market Information**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 78330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. The trading volume increased by 165%, and the position decreased by 6%. Global copper visible inventory is at a historically low level [5]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight, but the production of electrolytic copper has increased significantly. The high copper price suppresses demand, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [5]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, there is intense long - short game. After a full correction, try long positions with a light position. In the long term, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. The range of SHFE copper is [77800, 79800], and that of LME copper is [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22220 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is 56.48%, lower than the same period in previous years [8]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the TC continues to rebound. The demand for galvanized steel is affected by the weak steel demand and overseas anti - dumping [8]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see in the short term. In the long run, short on rallies. The range of SHFE zinc is [21800, 22500], and that of LME zinc is [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 2583 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.23%, and that of SHFE aluminum main contract was 20515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased [10]. - **Logic**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the downstream consumption is weak. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [11]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The closing price of LME nickel was 14990 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.93%, and that of SHFE nickel main contract was 120370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The inventory of pure nickel has accumulated [12]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand imbalance of nickel persists, and the consumption of stainless steel is in the off - season, although the inventory has decreased slightly due to production cuts [13]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the production cut trend of stainless steel. The range of nickel main contract is [118000, 122000] [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The main contract LC2509 of lithium carbonate decreased its position by over 10,000 lots, opening low and closing high. The total inventory continues to reach new highs [14]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction has not been resolved. The demand shows an off - season non - off - season phenomenon, but the supply increase is in line with expectations [14]. - **Strategy**: It will have high - level oscillations in the short term, paying attention to the 65,000 pressure level [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report provides short - term outlooks for various agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, analyzing their market trends based on factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term consolidation. Consider factors like US biodiesel policy and inventory levels [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment. Pay attention to US biodiesel hearings and Sino - Canadian relations [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish, but be cautious when chasing the market. Monitor Malaysian palm oil inventory and US biodiesel agreements [1][10]. - **Cotton**: Rebound is under pressure. Watch for Trump's latest tariff remarks [1][14]. - **Jujube**: Wide - range oscillation. Be wary of new production - related fluctuations [1][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak oscillation. Focus on the slaughter rhythm [1][19]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.41% to 2947 yuan/ton; national average spot price increased 0.10% to 2897.14 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: US soybean planting weather is generally smooth, South American harvest is certain. Domestic ports and oil mills are in the inventory - building stage, and feed companies' restocking enthusiasm may slow down [1]. - **Outlook**: Short - term consolidation, watch for the outcome of biodiesel policy [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.39% to 2586 yuan/ton; national average spot price remained unchanged at 2565.79 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Inventory is decreasing, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. High tariffs and reduced imports support prices, but low spot price difference with soybean meal affects consumption [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Short - term adjustment, pay attention to US biodiesel hearings [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: Futures price (main contract daily closing) rose 0.39% to 8678 yuan/ton; national average price increased 0.94% to 8830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Southeast Asian inventory - building cycle has started, but there are positive factors such as Chinese and Indian low - price purchases and US biodiesel policies. US tariff on Indonesia may benefit Malaysian palm oil [1][10]. - **Outlook**: Short - term bullish, but be cautious when chasing the market. Monitor Malaysian palm oil inventory and US biodiesel agreements [1][10]. Cotton - **Market Data**: Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 rose 0.33% to 13830 yuan/ton; domestic spot price decreased 0.09% to 15189 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Internationally, US cotton planting is mostly completed, with high planting area and good quality. India's planting area is increasing, and Brazil's output is expected to rise. Domestically, new cotton growth is good, inventory is decreasing, and imports are shrinking. However, downstream orders are weakening [12][13][14]. - **Outlook**: Rebound is under pressure, watch for Trump's latest tariff remarks [1][14]. Jujube - **Market Data**: Main contract CJ2601 decreased 0.10% to 10425 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: New - season jujube trees are growing well, current inventory is high, and demand is weak [16]. - **Outlook**: Wide - range oscillation, be wary of new production - related fluctuations [1][16]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: Main contract Lh2509 decreased 0.04% to 14265 yuan/ton; domestic spot price decreased 0.40% to 15000 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Supply is still in an increasing cycle, demand is marginally weakening [18]. - **Outlook**: Weak oscillation, focus on the slaughter rhythm [1][19].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 区间运行 | 近期去产能反内卷政策带动市场情绪转强，预期有所改善。目前铁水产量 | | | | 仍然较高，螺纹产量继续上升，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好。国内需求进 | | | | 入淡季，长期偏弱状态并未转变，基差修复背景下行情或区间运行。【3060， | | | 3100】 | | | 热卷 | 区间运行 | 越南对中国热卷出口反倾销税终裁落地。国内热卷产量小幅上升，表观需 | | | | 求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平衡，基本面变化不大，前期 | | | | 上行主要受市场情绪改善推动，短期表现或进入区间运行。【3190，3230】 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，预计后期铁水缓慢下行。供给端发货冲 | | | | 量结束，到货仍有增量。港口累库，钢厂刚需补库，整体供需结构中性。 | | | | 反内卷再提，对黑色行业影响有限，短期主要体现为情绪性交易。观点： | | | | 短期区间参与，中期布局空单。【730,760】 | | 焦炭 | 短期偏强 | 焦炭 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Consolidation [1][3][4] - **LPG**: Bearish consolidation [1][6][7] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1][9][10] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1][11][12] - **PVC**: Bearish rebound [1][14][15] - **PX**: Sideways [1][16][17] - **PTA/PR**: Rebound with a bearish bias [1][19][20] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Rebound with a bearish bias [1][21][22] - **Glass**: Rebound and go long [2][24][25] - **Soda Ash**: Range-bound rebound [2][26][27] - **Caustic Soda**: Continue to rebound [2][29][30] - **Methanol**: Rebound with a bearish bias [2][32][33] - **Urea**: Rebound and short [2] - **Asphalt**: Rebound with a bearish bias [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: There is support at the bottom during the consumption peak season, but the pressure to increase production is rising. The medium - to - long - term supply is expected to be in excess [3][4][5] - **LPG**: The cost side is bearish, the supply side is sufficient, and the price is oscillating weakly [6][7][8] - **L**: Supply and demand are both weak, and it is in a range - bound oscillation [9][10] - **PP**: The cost support has improved, and it rebounds within a range [11][12] - **PVC**: The market trades on anti - involution, and the price rebounds from a low level [14][15] - **PX**: The supply - demand balance shifts from tight to loose, but there is still cost support, and it is in an oscillating adjustment [16][17][18] - **PTA/PR**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance currently but is expected to be loose. Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies [19][20] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Low inventory at ports vs. expected supply - demand looseness. Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies [21][22][23] - **Glass**: Policy expectations vs. real - world constraints. Consider going long on pullbacks [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash factories continue to accumulate inventory, and the rebound is mainly bearish [26][27][28] - **Caustic Soda**: The subsidy for liquid chlorine is expanding, and the price continues to rebound [29][30][31] - **Methanol**: The basis weakens, and there is negative feedback on MTO demand. It rebounds with a bearish bias [32][33] - **Urea**: The supply pressure is still large, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2] - **Asphalt**: The cost side rebounds in the short - term, but there is large downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term. Consider shorting lightly [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices continued to oscillate. WTI decreased by 1.99%, Brent increased by 0.06%, and SC increased by 1.14% [3] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in August. However, the oil price has strong support at the bottom due to the consumption peak season and Saudi Arabia's increase in the official OSP. The global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 is 129,000 barrels per day, lower than that in May. The U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 7.1 million barrels [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is expected to be in excess, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, it rebounds with a bearish bias. Lightly short and buy call options for protection. SC focuses on [510 - 530] [5] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On July 9, the PG main contract closed at 4,178 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.14% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [6] - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the dominant factor. OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, and the subsequent downward pressure on the oil price is expected to increase. The PDH and alkylation device profits decreased. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand of downstream industries such as PDH decreased. The inventory of refineries and ports decreased [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the center of the upstream crude oil price is expected to move down, and the LPG valuation is high. In the short - term, it oscillates weakly. Lightly short and buy call options for protection. PG focuses on [4130 - 4230] [8] 3.3 L - **Basic Logic**: Although the crude oil price is expected to rise, the downstream demand for domestic polyethylene is in the off - season, and the supply change is small. The short - term price is expected to be weak. Recently, the device maintenance intensity has increased, and the supply pressure has been marginally relieved. New devices are planned to be put into production in July - August, with a weak long - term outlook [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It rebounds in the short - term. Sell - hedge at an appropriate time. L focuses on [7250 - 7400] [10] 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP main contract and other contracts closed higher, and the main contract's open interest decreased. The spot prices in some regions decreased, and the profit of some production processes decreased [12] - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is weak, and the new orders of downstream factories have not improved. The international crude oil price has risen, providing cost support. Some devices are expected to expand production in the middle of the month, and the supply pressure still exists [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It rebounds in the short - term. Consider a 9 - 1 positive spread at an appropriate time. PP focuses on [7000 - 7200] [12] 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC main contract and other contracts closed higher, and the main contract's open interest increased. The spot prices in some regions increased slightly [15] - **Basic Logic**: The production enterprises' start - up changes are limited, and the inventory accumulation pressure increases in the off - season. The cost support decreases. The market trades on anti - involution, and the price rebounds from a low level. The Lanthanum coke price has decreased, and the basis has weakened. The upstream is in the centralized maintenance period, and the production capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. Pay attention to the commissioning progress of some factories and the Indian anti - dumping tax policy [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long and long - term short. Pay attention to the previous high pressure level. V focuses on [4900 - 5050] [15] 3.6 PX - **Market Review**: The PX futures prices of some contracts decreased, and the spot price in East China remained unchanged. The PX inventory decreased, and the production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [16] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas PX device loads are running at a relatively high level, and the demand from the PTA side has decreased. The supply - demand has changed from a tight balance to a loose one. The PX inventory is still relatively high [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see. PX focuses on [6680 - 6780] [18] 3.7 PTA/PR - **Market Review**: The PTA futures prices of some contracts decreased, and the spot price in East China decreased. The PTA inventory decreased, and the production capacity utilization rate remained unchanged [19] - **Basic Logic**: The recent device changes are relatively small, but the supply pressure is expected to increase after the new PTA devices are put into production. The downstream polyester production reduction load has been declining, and the terminal weaving start - up load has continued to decline. The inventory has been continuously destocked, and the processing fee is high, and the basis has weakened [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. TA focuses on [4690 - 4760] [20] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The ethylene glycol futures prices of some contracts decreased, and the spot price in East China remained unchanged. The ethylene glycol inventory increased slightly [21] - **Basic Logic**: Many domestic and overseas ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance or shut down temporarily, and the recent arrival and import volumes are low, but the expected arrival volume is expected to rebound. The demand is weakening, and the downstream polyester production reduction and load reduction continue. The low inventory supports the price [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. EG focuses on [4260 - 4320] [23] 3.9 Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotes are stable, the futures price has risen slightly, the basis has narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased slightly [24] - **Basic Logic**: The high - level meeting emphasizes the exit of backward production capacity, and the market expects the technological transformation process of coal - fired production lines to accelerate. The in - production capacity of glass fluctuates slightly at a low level, the production has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. The production profit of float glass varies with different raw materials. The fuel price has increased, which boosts the sentiment [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [1020 - 1050] [25] 3.10 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy soda ash spot quotes are differentiated, the futures price has risen slightly, the main contract basis has decreased, the number of warehouse receipts has decreased, and the number of effective forecasts has decreased [27] - **Basic Logic**: The high - level meeting mentions supply - side capacity reduction, which boosts the industry sentiment, but the influence of policy speculation has weakened. The soda ash supply is slightly reduced at a high level due to some enterprises' device maintenance. The inventory of soda ash factories has increased, and the downstream support is average, and the terminal consumption is weak [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focuses on [1170 - 1200] [28] 3.11 Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot quotes of caustic soda have been partially raised, the futures price center has moved up, the basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased slightly [30] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has high - load production, and there is an expectation of new capacity investment. There is an expectation of inventory reduction during the summer maintenance season. The demand from the main downstream alumina industry has increased, but the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The cost support has decreased. The inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises has decreased [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH focuses on [2400 - 2450] [31] 3.12 Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 4, the methanol spot price in East China decreased, and the main contract futures price decreased. The basis in East China increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [32] - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is still good, and the domestic methanol device comprehensive start - up load remains high. Most Iranian devices have started. The arrival volume in early July may be lower than expected, but the port is expected to start the inventory accumulation cycle later. The demand negative feedback is obvious, and the traditional demand start - up load is expected to return to the off - season. The social inventory has been accumulating, but the overall inventory is low [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focuses on [2370 - 2410] [33] 3.13 Urea - **Basic Logic**: The recent urea maintenance intensity has increased, and the daily production has decreased briefly. However, the daily production is expected to return to 200,000 tons in early July, and the supply pressure is still large. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural fertilizer demand is weaker than the same period last year, but the fertilizer export growth rate is fast [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Rebound and short. Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. UR focuses on [1755 - 1785] [2] 3.14 Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost side of asphalt has rebounded in the short - term, and the inventory has decreased. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the cost side has large downward pressure due to OPEC+ continuing to expand production. The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by the weather [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short. BU focuses on [3550 - 3650] [2]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 短期关税风险影响减少，市场风险偏好回升。中长期看美国财政扩张既成事实， 多国财政继续扩大，多国央行继续购买黄金，中长期货币宽松、不确定性仍然 | | | | 较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【765-785】 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 双宽松政策对白银需求有支撑。白银盘面 8700 附近支撑较强，受基本金属和黄 | | | | 金价格情绪影响较大，高位区间思路操作，做好仓位控制。【8800-9075】 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 特朗普称即将对铜进口加征 50%关税，美铜爆拉 10%创历史新高，建议铜多单继续 | | | | 持有，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，83000】 | | 锌 | 震荡 | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面锌精矿加工费修复，国内锌库存小幅 累库，国内消费淡季，锌窄幅震荡，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。 | | | | 沪锌关注区间【21800，22500】 | | 铅 | 反弹承压 | 原生铅冶炼厂检修后 ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | | 在产产能低位小幅波动，周产量环比增加，上游库存环比续降，同期仍偏 高。短期高温背景下，现实基本面仍受到约束。关注政策：一是反内卷去 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 回调做多 | 产能政策与沙河新能源汽车提货政策，二是煤制产线技改预期，从供应和 | | | | 成本两方面产生支撑。策略：政策预期提振，现实基本面约束，60 日均线 | | | | 短期承压，关注 1000 支撑。FG【1020-1050】 | | | | 部分企业降负检修，开工率和产量环比回落，但供应处于绝对高位。下游 | | | | 需求表现不佳，浮法玻璃行业处于亏损或成本线附近，原料储备相对谨慎， | | | | 光伏玻璃去产能政策下存减量预期。碱厂库存持续累积，库存总量处于历 | | 纯碱 | 反弹偏空 | 史同期偏高位置，库存去化困难。中长期成本重心下移，带动价格中枢下 | | | | 移。高供应高库存压力下，反弹偏空为主。策略：碱厂持续累库，大方向 | | | | 依旧是供需过剩格局，均线承压。SA【1170-1200】 | | | | 检修损失量季节性高点，产量 ...