研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-11-11 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 沪铜周报 美联储放鹰，铜短期涨势受阻 观点摘要 【核心观点】 美国政府结束关门停摆，美联储放鹰，国内宏观数据不佳，基本面多空交织， 铜冲高回落，短期承压8万8关口，建议多单部分逢高止盈，长期看好铜 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，美联储应维持利率稳定，以继续对通胀施压，将物价增速拉回2%的目标。 哈马克表示，尽管劳动力市场存在一定隐忧，但高企的通胀依然顽固，尤其对低收入和中等收入家庭造成 持续冲击。 哈马克认为，当前利率水平"几乎算不上限制性"，为了保持政策的限制性，需要让利率维持在当前水平。 通胀压力将持续到今年年底甚至延续至明年初。 旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利表示，现在判断美联储是否应在12月会议上降息还为时过早，目前政策走向看起 来"相对中性"。 圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆呼吁在继续降息方面保持谨慎。 【策略展望】 策略：新入场投机背靠85000逢低试多，最大止损83000，目标90000，盈亏比2.5 已有的短期多单可移动止盈，逢高落袋，中长期多单保持定力和耐心 产业卖出套 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market continue to show a tight supply-demand balance, with total inventory declining for 13 consecutive weeks and the decline rate further expanding. The domestic production has continuously reached new highs, and the new production lines are ramping up to contribute to the increase. Currently, the price increase stimulates the production enthusiasm of manufacturers. However, the rapid consumption of spodumene raw material inventory limits the upside potential of production. The terminal market shows strong performance, and the optimistic demand expectation is difficult to be falsified. The orders in the power and energy storage markets are booming, and the production of lithium iron phosphate has repeatedly reached new highs, strongly supporting lithium carbonate. Currently, the market has strong expectations for energy storage, and related stocks have risen significantly. The market trading focuses on the demand side, and the impact of supply resumption is gradually weakening. In the short term, lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong, and it is advisable to go long on dips [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - In October 2025 in China, the new social financing was 810 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap at the end of October was 2.0 percentage points, wider than 1.2 percentage points in the previous month. The national industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year (previous value: 6.5%), social retail consumption increased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: 3%), the national real estate development investment from January to October was - 14.7% (previous value: - 13.9%), and the urban fixed - asset investment increased by - 1.7% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.5%). The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown and starting a "long restart." Fed officials signaled a hawkish stance before the release of important economic data, reducing the probability of a rate cut in December, and risk assets adjusted collectively [3] Supply Side - This week, the lithium carbonate production continued to increase, with the weekly production remaining above 23,000 tons and reaching a new high for the year. The newly put - into - production capacity continued to ramp up, and the average industry operating rate rebounded to over 52%. In October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% increase from the previous month, and 16,200 tons were exported to China [3] Demand Side - According to the data released by the Passenger Car Association, from November 1st to 9th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 265,000 units, a 5% decrease compared to the same period in November last year and a 16% increase compared to the same period in the previous month. The new - energy penetration rate was 64%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.415 million units, a 21% increase year - on - year. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 306,000 units, a 3% decrease compared to the same period in November last year and a 59% increase compared to the same period in the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 12.362 million units, a 29% increase year - on - year [4] Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of lithium ore increased. The price of African SC 5% lithium ore was quoted at $730 per ton, a $100 increase from last week. The CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $1,060 per ton, a $120 increase from last week. The market price of lithium mica was 3,075 yuan per ton, a 300 - yuan increase from last week. The cost of the lithium carbonate industry was 73,646 yuan per ton, a 2,476 - yuan increase from last week, and the profit was 10,704 yuan per ton, a 1,800 - yuan increase [4] Total Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,472 tons, a decrease of 3,481 tons from last week. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 28,270 tons, a decrease of 2,446 tons [5] Market Performance - As of November 14th, LC2601 closed at 87,360 yuan per ton, a 6.1% increase from last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 87,000 yuan per ton, an 8.4% increase from last week. The basis discount widened, and the position of the main contract was 517,000 lots. This week, the main contract reached a new high for the year, approaching the 90,000 - yuan mark. On Monday, the position increased by 40,000 lots, and the weighted position approached 1 million lots, with continuous increase in market attention [7] Production Status - As of November 14th, the lithium carbonate production was 23,850 tons, a 385 - ton increase from last week. The enterprise operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.84% increase from last week. This week, the production continued to increase slightly. The price increase stimulated the production enthusiasm of manufacturers, and the operating rates of some enterprises increased. The newly put - into - production capacity was ramping up steadily, the production of lithium carbonate from mica was gradually increasing, and the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene was restricted by raw material supply [9] - As of November 14th, the lithium hydroxide production was 6,520 tons, a 65 - ton increase from last week. The enterprise operating rate was 37.09%, a 0.37% increase from last week. This week, the lithium hydroxide production remained stable, and the operating rate was at a low level. Some production lines switched to lithium carbonate production, leading to a structural adjustment. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, dominated by small - batch orders [11] - As of November 14th, the lithium iron phosphate production was 99,906 tons, a 3,050 - ton increase from last week. The enterprise operating rate was 87.92%, a 2.68% increase from last week. This week, the lithium iron phosphate production continued to reach new highs, and the industry operating rate was close to 90%. The situation of strong supply and demand continued, especially the high - density lithium iron phosphate was in short supply. Downstream battery cell manufacturers maintained full production and sales, and material manufacturers had sufficient orders [13] Inventory Status - As of November 13th, the total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry was 120,472 tons, a decrease of 3,841 tons from last week. The warehouse receipt inventory was 27,170 tons, a decrease of 162 tons from last week. The inventory decline rate of lithium carbonate continued to increase, and the inventory level of smelters was less than 30,000 tons, lower than the same period last year. However, the inventory in the trader segment increased slightly. The warehouse receipts remained at a low level, and the warehouse receipts in November faced centralized cancellation [32] - As of November 14th, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 39,732 tons, a 400 - ton decrease from last week. This week, the finished - product inventory of lithium iron phosphate continued to decline. The continuous release of market demand drove the digestion of inventory. Downstream battery cell manufacturers had high capacity utilization rates. Lithium iron phosphate enterprises mainly fulfilled orders, with concentrated production scheduling, and the inventory maintained a downward trend [35] Cost and Profit Status - As of November 14th, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 73,646 yuan per ton, a 2,476 - yuan increase from last week, and the industry profit was 10,704 yuan per ton, a 1,800 - yuan increase. The price of lithium ore followed the fluctuations of lithium carbonate, and recently, the consumption rate of lithium ore was too fast. Mines gradually sold at high points, and the transaction price was at a premium to the futures price, further squeezing the processing fee. The profit of integrated smelters improved significantly [51] - As of November 14th, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 66,639 yuan per ton, a 1,826 - yuan decrease from last week, and the industry profit was 9,986 yuan per ton, a 2,343 - yuan increase from last week. This week, the prices of lithium carbonate and spodumene were strong, driving a narrow increase in the price of lithium hydroxide. Downstream ternary material manufacturers maintained normal production rhythms, providing some support for the price. The inventory level continued to decline, and the industry maintained a slight profit [54] - As of November 14th, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 38,284 yuan per ton, a 1,607 - yuan increase from last week. The loss was 2,284 yuan per ton, a 178 - yuan decrease from last week. The increase in the price of lithium carbonate at the raw material end supported the cost of lithium iron phosphate. Due to the tight supply of high - density lithium iron phosphate products, the processing fees of newly signed orders increased, and the industry's loss was slightly reduced [58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a cautious bearish view on the coking coal and coke industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The domestic coking coal supply shortage pattern remains unbroken, and demand depends on the decline of subsequent hot metal production. Currently in a policy window period, with increased market wait - and - see sentiment. Short - term strategies suggest exiting the market or short - selling. Coking coal main contract reference range is [1150, 1230], and coke main contract reference range is [1630, 1710] [4] Market Overview - This week, black commodity prices continued to diverge, with coal and coke prices dropping significantly and steel and ore performing relatively strongly. The National Development and Reform Commission deployed energy supply work for the heating season. Domestically, coal mine production increased slightly but remained at a low level. Some mines had slow supply recovery. Downstream, hot metal production rebounded, and blast furnace operating rates remained high, supporting raw material demand. Imported port clearance vehicles increased, but downstream purchasing was cautious. Coke enterprises had smooth shipments, low inventory, and reduced restocking. The fourth round of price increases was implemented, and there was an expectation of a fifth round [6] Coking Coal Market Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost - Different types of coking coal have different spot prices and warehouse receipt costs in various locations. For example, in Tangshan on November 14, 2025, the spot price of Meng 5 was 1550 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt cost was 1323 yuan/ton [10] Coking Coal Basis - The 01 basis strengthened to a high level in the same period. For the 1 - month contract, the basis was 325, with a weekly change of 13 and a basis rate of 23.57% [11][15] Coking Coal Month - to - Month Spread - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [16] Coking Coal Supply - Mines: This week, the average daily output of raw coal from 523 mines was 1.9195 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,200 tons; the average daily output of clean coal was 757,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,100 tons. - Coal washing plants: The average daily output of sample coal washing plants was 274,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 37.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56% [22][25] Coking Coal Import - From January to September 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year. Different countries had different import volume changes. For example, Mongolia's cumulative imports were 41.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.85% [26][27] Coking Coal Auction Data - This week, the coking coal auction listing volume was 1.5544 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,600 tons; the成交 rate was 88.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.65%; the flow - auction rate was 11.58%, a week - on - week increase of 4.65% [32] Coking Coal Total Inventory - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [33] Coking Coal Inventory Distribution - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [35] Coke Market Coking Profit - Coking profits in different regions changed. Nationally, the profit on November 13, 2025, was - 34 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [42] Coke Basis - For the 1 - month coke contract, the basis was - 6, with a weekly change of 47 and a basis rate of - 0.38% [47] Coke Month - to - Month Spread - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [48] Coke Supply - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [50] Coke Demand - This week, the average daily coke consumption was 1.066 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons; the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 38.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87% [54] Coke Total Inventory - The total coke inventory on November 14, 2025, was 8.7935 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,000 tons [60] Coke Inventory Distribution - Steel mills' inventory was 6.224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,400 tons; independent coking enterprises' inventory was 581,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons; port inventory was 1.988 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,100 tons [60] Registered Warehouse Receipts - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [62] Futures Positions - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [64] Net Long Positions of TOP20 Seats in Coking Coal and Coke - The report mentions this item, but no specific data is provided [69]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment for soybean meal is bullish, but due to the lack of obvious bullish drivers, chasing long positions should be done with caution. Opportunities to go long on dips are recommended. Attention should be paid to the November USDA report and the soybean planting situation in Brazil [1]. - The sentiment for rapeseed meal is also bullish. However, due to the consumption off - season and relatively high port inventories, the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited. Follow - up developments in China - Canada trade should be monitored [1]. - Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand balance. With inventory accumulation in October and weak export data in the first 10 days of November, there is still an expectation of inventory build - up. Caution is needed when going long on palm oil [1]. - Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate bullishly in the short term. Although there is no strong bullish driver currently, it can be treated as a rebound. Attention should be paid to the November USDA report and the weather in Brazil [1]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to be bullish in the short term. The zero - operation of coastal oil mills, zero inventory of rapeseed, and zero import of rapeseed in November have led to a significant rebound in domestic rapeseed oil prices [1]. - Cotton is expected to have a short - term adjustment. The market is digesting the new - season supply pressure, but the consumption outlook may not be overly pessimistic. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand balance sheet on Friday [1]. - For jujubes, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. Considering the high - inventory of old jujubes and limited acceptance of new products, short - selling operations should be carried out cautiously [1]. - For live pigs, the supply pressure in Q4 remains high. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts, be vigilant against the rebound risk of the 01 contract, and consider the 03 contract. Attention should also be paid to the anti - arbitrage opportunities during the downward repair of the far - month premium [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: As of November 7, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 10.334 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 705,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.6195 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 511,600 tons or 7.20%. The soybean meal inventory was 998,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 154,400 tons or 13.39% [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3,071 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,106.57 yuan/ton, up 8.86 yuan or 0.29% [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to trade costs and potential Brazilian planting premiums, the market has a bullish sentiment, but chasing long positions should be cautious. Look for opportunities to go long on dips and pay attention to the USDA report and Brazilian soybean planting [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: As of November 7, the coastal area's main oil mills had a rapeseed inventory of 0 tons, a rapeseed meal inventory of 5,000 tons, and an unexecuted contract of 5,000 tons, all showing a week - on - week decrease [6]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,492 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.08% from the previous day. The national average spot price remained unchanged at 2,588.95 yuan/ton [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market's expectation of an improvement in China - Canada trade tariffs has cooled. Although the sentiment is bullish, the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited due to the off - season and high inventories. Monitor China - Canada trade developments [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: As of November 7, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 597,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,500 tons or 0.76% [8]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8,752 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.09% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,725 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.34% [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand. With inventory accumulation and weak export data, be cautious when going long [1][8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: In the US, new cotton is being harvested; in India, the daily listing volume is about 14,000 tons; in Pakistan, the new cotton listing volume as of the end of October was 688,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%; in Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 63.67% [10]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13,490 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14,819 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 0.22% [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international market has a bullish sentiment due to the potential US government shutdown. Domestically, the new cotton harvest is almost complete, and the consumption outlook may not be overly pessimistic. Look for short - term low - buying opportunities and pay attention to the USDA supply - demand balance sheet [1][12]. Jujubes - **Market Situation**: The Xinjiang main production area is in the concentrated harvest stage. As of November 6, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,541 tons, a week - on - week increase of 193 tons or 2.06% [15]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9,195 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan or 1.82% from the previous day. The spot price of some varieties remained stable or decreased slightly [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. Short - selling operations should be carried out cautiously based on the main purchase price and progress [1][15]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: As of November 10, the overall group's slaughter progress was about 2% behind schedule. The number of newly - born piglets in October increased by 105,300 to 5.7813 million. The number of fertile sows in September decreased by 30,000 to 40.35 million [16]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract (lh2601) closed at 11,860 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan or 0.55% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 11,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.25% [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply pressure in Q4 remains high. Short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts, be vigilant against the rebound risk of the 01 contract, and consider the 03 contract. Look for anti - arbitrage opportunities during the downward repair of the far - month premium [1][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Silver: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Copper: Long - term holding (★) [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: High - level under pressure (★) [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong (★★) [1] - Nickel: Relatively weak (★) [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish (★★) [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level operation (★) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall precious metals market is supported by factors such as repeated statements from Fed officials and weak micro - data, and long - term value allocation is recommended [1][2][3] - The copper market is bullish in the medium - to - long - term due to tight copper concentrate supply and increasing green copper demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions [1][5][6] - The zinc market is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [1][9][10] - The aluminum market shows a relatively strong short - term trend due to overseas supply contraction, but attention should be paid to downstream demand changes [1][11][13] - The nickel market is relatively weak because of high inventory and weak downstream consumption, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [1][15][17] - The lithium carbonate market remains in a tight supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to take profit at high levels and wait for dips to go long [1][19][21] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US big data is blank, micro - data is weak, Fed officials' statements are repeated, silver has fallen from its high, but gold and silver are generally supported [2] - **Basic Logic**: The US government shutdown has ended; some micro - data has turned weak, such as Verizon's large - scale layoffs and an increase in US foreclosure property numbers; Fed officials' statements are inconsistent; China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves, and gold may be in a long - term bull market [2][3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, domestic gold has support at 935, and silver has strong support at 12000. Long - term value - allocation positions should be held [3] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is consolidating at a high level, facing pressure at the 88,000 - yuan mark [5] - **Industrial Logic**: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mining enterprises decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and the contraction is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate is weak year - on - year [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to continue holding long positions in copper. In the medium - to - long - term, copper is still bullish. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [86,000 - 89,000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [10,500 - 11,000] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has fallen under pressure and is in a volatile consolidation [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas zinc mine output has declined recently, zinc concentrate supply has tightened in the short term, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to fall. Consumption has entered the off - season, and overseas LME zinc inventory has continued to accumulate [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, zinc supply will increase and demand will decrease, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22,400 - 22,800] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [3,000 - 3,100] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices have risen and then fallen, and alumina is relatively weak [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas supply is expected to be tight due to production cuts, and domestic demand is turning from peak to off - season. For alumina, overseas shipments have decreased, and domestic high - cost enterprises may cut production due to losses, but the market is still in an oversupply situation in the short term [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on Shanghai aluminum at high levels in the short term, and pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [21,300 - 22,300] [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have continued to fall, and stainless steel is in a weak trend [16] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel inventory is at a high level, and domestic nickel inventory has also accumulated. The terminal consumption of stainless steel is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the long term [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, and pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [117,500 - 120,000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 has fluctuated higher, hitting a recent high during the session, and the late - session gains have declined [20] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand situation remains tight, with inventory decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks. Domestic production has reached a new high, and terminal market performance is strong. However, the resumption of production may put pressure on prices [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions near the previous high [86,000 - 88,000] [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) are rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The fundamentals are generally weak, with production and apparent demand declining month-on-month. The total inventory is down, but the inventory in Hangzhou is rising and at a multi-year high. It is currently near the previous low, testing the support at 3000, and may fluctuate repeatedly at low levels [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Apparent demand and production have slightly declined, and inventory has increased seasonally, indicating some inventory pressure. It will operate within a range in the medium term and may fluctuate repeatedly at low levels in the short term [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: The static fundamentals are moderately bullish. Iron ore prices are firm in the short term, with iron water production increasing month-on-month, some blast furnaces resuming production, and reduced arrivals of foreign ore [1][7][8] - **Coke**: The expectation of the fourth round of price increases is strengthening, and coke enterprise profits have slightly improved. After the short-term phased demand is released, the restocking willingness has declined. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The supply-demand pattern remains unchanged. After the short-term phased demand is released, the restocking willingness has declined, and coal mine inventories have slightly decreased. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][13][14] - **Ferromanganese**: The supply in the production area has slightly decreased, and inventory has continued to increase significantly compared to the previous period. The steel procurement in November has started, and attention should be paid to the final pricing. In the short term, the cost side provides some support for prices, and trading within a range is recommended [1][16][17] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply in the production area has slightly decreased, downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase significantly compared to the previous period. In the short term, the cost side provides some support for prices, but the fundamentals have become looser, and trading within a range is recommended [1][16][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures, spot, basis, and spreads are provided [2] - **Fundamentals**: Rebar production and apparent demand are declining, and the total inventory is down, but the Hangzhou inventory is rising. Hot-rolled coil apparent demand and production have slightly declined, and inventory has increased seasonally [4] - **Operation Suggestions**: Rebar is testing the support at 3000 and may fluctuate repeatedly at low levels. Hot-rolled coil will operate within a range in the medium term and may fluctuate repeatedly at low levels in the short term [5] Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of iron ore futures, spot, spreads, basis, freight, and spot indexes are provided [6] - **Fundamentals**: Iron water production is increasing month-on-month, some blast furnaces are resuming production, and there is more information on steel mill maintenance. Steel mills and ports are accumulating inventory, and the arrivals of foreign ore are decreasing. The static fundamentals are moderately bullish [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Cautiously bullish [9] Coke - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of coke futures, spot, and weekly data are provided [10] - **Fundamentals**: The expectation of the fourth round of price increases is strengthening, and coke enterprise profits have slightly improved. After the short-term phased demand is released, the restocking willingness has declined [11] - **Operation Suggestions**: Cautiously bullish, and it is advisable to wait and see [12] Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of coking coal futures, spot, and weekly data are provided [13] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic coal mine production has slightly increased, but the supply recovery of some coal mines is slow. After the short-term phased demand is released, the restocking willingness has declined, and coal mine inventories have slightly decreased. The supply-demand pattern remains unchanged [14] - **Operation Suggestions**: Cautiously bullish, and it is advisable to wait and see [15] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures, spot, basis, and spreads are provided [16] - **Fundamentals**: The supply in the production areas of both has slightly decreased, and inventory has continued to increase significantly compared to the previous period. The steel procurement in November has started, and attention should be paid to the final pricing. Ferrosilicon downstream demand has weakened marginally [17] - **Operation Suggestions**: For both, the cost side provides some support for prices in the short term. Ferromanganese should be traded within a range, and ferrosilicon should also be traded within a range as its fundamentals have become looser [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [2] - L: Bearish rebound [2] - PP: Bearish rebound [2] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Sideways bottoming [4] - Urea: Rebound to short [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [7] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The core driver for the energy and chemical industry is the supply - demand imbalance, with some products facing supply surpluses during the off - season and others having potential demand improvements [2][10][15] - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to supply surplus and OPEC's production plans; LPG may rebound due to inventory factors; other products' trends are affected by factors such as capacity utilization, demand changes, and cost support [2][10][15] Group 3: Summaries by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: Overnight, international oil prices stabilized, with WTI up 0.26%, Brent up 0.48%, and SC down 2.43%. As of November 7, the US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels [8][9] - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the off - season supply surplus and global inventory accumulation. OPEC's latest monthly report predicts an oversupply in 2026, leading to a significant drop in oil prices [10] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC expects non - OPEC regions' crude production to increase by 600,000 barrels per day in 2026. IEA predicts global oil supply growth. OPEC's November report forecasts global crude demand increments [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close previous short positions. Pay attention to the price range of SC at [445 - 460] [12] LPG - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the PG main contract closed at 4,303 yuan/ton, down 1.06% [14] - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to crude oil. The cost is weak, limiting the upside. The supply has decreased, and the demand has mixed performance. The inventory has decreased [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options. Pay attention to the price range of PG at [4300 - 4400] [16] L - **Market Quotes**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,818 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [18][19] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has been repaired, and the monthly spread is moving towards a positive spread. The supply is loose, and the demand has weak replenishment motivation. The oil price may decline, lacking cost support [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially reduce short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - long term. Pay attention to the price range of L at [6800 - 6950] [20] PP - **Market Quotes**: The PP2601 closed at 6,429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan [23] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak due to cost. The inventory is high, and the demand is insufficient. The oil price may continue to fall [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - long term. Pay attention to the price range of PP at [6350 - 6500] [24] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The V2601 closed at 4,586 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [27] - **Basic Logic**: The futures price is at a premium, and the warehouse receipts are at a new high. The market is in a weak fundamental situation during the off - season, but the low valuation limits the downside [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Pay attention to the price range of V at [4500 - 4650] [28] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PXN spread is 250.3 (+11.8) dollars/ton, and the short - process PX - MX spread is 112.0 (+5.0) dollars/ton [29] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has increased production, and the demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The cost side has a loose supply - demand pattern for crude oil [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up on a single - side trade. Pay attention to expanding downstream processing fees (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the price range of PX at [6810 - 6920] [30] PTA - **Market Quotes**: TA05 is at 4,728 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,616 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,664 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low, and the supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability needs to be tracked. There is an expected inventory build - up in November [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on a single - side trade at low prices. Pay attention to expanding TA processing fees (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the price range of TA at [4600 - 4670] [33] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: EG05 is at 3,942 yuan/ton, EG11 at 3,848 yuan/ton, and EG01 at 4,019 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an expected inventory build - up in November [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price range of EG at [3880 - 3960] [36] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: Not specifically mentioned in a significant way [39] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the price. The supply side has increased production, and the demand is average. The cost support is weak but may be stable in the fourth quarter [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Pay attention to the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [39] Urea - **Market Quotes**: UR05 is at 1,734 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,753 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,667 yuan/ton [42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory is high, and the export has maintained a high growth rate. There are upside and downside limits [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about the risk of the price falling after rising. Look for opportunities to go short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of UR at [1630 - 1655] [44] Natural Gas - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the NG main contract closed at 4.744 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.42% [46] - **Basic Logic**: The demand increases during the heating season as the temperature drops. The cost - profit situation shows an increase in domestic LNG retail profit. The supply and demand and inventory have certain characteristics [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is likely to rise but has limited upside. Pay attention to the price range of NG at [4.511 - 4.688] [48] Asphalt - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the BU main contract closed at 3,029 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [51] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly driven by crude oil. The cost support weakens as the oil price falls. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory has decreased [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. [52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term bullish, short - term with limited driving force, long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged, ★★ [1] - Silver: Bullish, strong support at 12000, long - term hold, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term hold, recommend buying on dips near the moving average, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, short - term narrow - range oscillation, long - term supply increase and demand decrease, short on rebounds, ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound, short - term price rebound, ★ [1] - Tin: Bullish, short - term price spike, ★★ [1] - Aluminum: Bullish, short - term price spike, ★★ [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price relatively weak, ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range - bound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, buy at the lower end of the range, ★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: High - level operation, take profit near the previous high, wait for low - buying opportunities, ★ [1] Core Views - The end of the US government shutdown, weak employment data expectations, and a weaker US dollar lead to a rise in market risk appetite, with precious metals and the non - ferrous sector showing positive sentiment. However, different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1][7][11] - Gold and silver are supported by factors such as potential interest rate cuts and central bank purchases, with long - term strategic investment value [1][4] - Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6][7] - Zinc has short - term supply - demand weakness, with inventory accumulation both at home and abroad, and a long - term trend of supply increase and demand decrease [1][10][11] - Aluminum is affected by overseas production cuts and inventory changes, with short - term price increases [1][14][15] - Nickel has weak terminal demand, with inventory accumulation and a relatively weak price trend [1][18][19] - Lithium carbonate has a tight supply - demand situation, with continuous inventory reduction, but there are also factors that may limit price increases [1][22][23] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data intensifies December interest rate cut predictions, and the market amplifies unexpected data, leading to strong performance of precious metals [2] - **Basic Logic**: The 43 - day US government shutdown is approaching an end, which may reduce Q4 economic growth. There are signs of widespread inflation slowdown, and the housing rental market is weak. China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves. In the long term, gold may benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3][4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, domestic gold has support at 935, and silver has strong support at 12000. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillates upward [5][6] - **Industrial Logic**: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mines decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and the decline is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate is weak year - on - year. Copper has been included in the US key minerals list [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the end of the US government shutdown, the market risk appetite has increased. Copper is expected to be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to buy on dips near the moving average with light positions. Long - term strategic positions should be held. The short - term trading range for Shanghai copper is [85000, 88000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc rebounds after testing the support at 22500 [9][10] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production has declined recently, leading to a short - term tightening of zinc concentrate supply. The processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate has continued to decline. Consumption is entering the off - season, and the galvanizing start - up rate has decreased. The zinc ingot export window has opened, and inventories at home and abroad have accumulated [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the end of the US government shutdown, the market risk appetite has recovered, but zinc demand is weak. It is recommended to take profit on long positions on rebounds. In the long term, short on rebounds. The trading range for Shanghai zinc is [22400, 22800] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [3000, 3100] US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rise and then fall, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12][13] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, the expectation of an end - of - year interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has weakened. There have been production cuts at overseas electrolytic aluminum plants, and it is expected that there will be further cuts in March next year. Domestic aluminum downstream processing start - up rates are decreasing. The alumina market is currently in an oversupply situation, but there may be some support from production cuts by high - cost enterprises [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on Shanghai aluminum positions on short - term rallies. Pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [21000 - 21900] yuan/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices continue to decline, and stainless steel shows a weak trend [16][17] - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of an end - of - year interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has weakened overseas. The inventory of nickel mines at domestic ports has decreased, but global nickel inventory has continued to accumulate. The stainless steel market is approaching the end of the peak season, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118500 - 121000] yuan/ton [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opens slightly higher, rises and then falls, with wide - range oscillations throughout the day [20][21] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand situation remains tight, with continuous inventory reduction for 12 weeks and an expanding reduction amplitude. Domestic production has reached new highs, and imports are expected to increase in November. The terminal market is strong, but there are factors that may limit price increases [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions near the previous high [85000 - 86600] [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For most varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon), the overall sentiment is cautiously bullish, except for iron ore where it is recommended to stop loss on short positions [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: After continuous declines, they are testing cost support. Rebar shows characteristics of weak supply and demand in the off - season, with a weakening of the support for raw materials from molten iron. Hot - rolled coil has a slight inventory pressure, and the demand support for raw materials is also weakening [3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is shrinking, and contradictions are accumulating. The short - term price is firm, with the possibility of an increase in molten iron production in the future, and attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill maintenance [6]. - **Coke**: The expectation of the fourth price increase is strengthening, but coke enterprises are still mostly in a loss state. With the decline in molten iron production and more blast furnace maintenance, there is a certain short - term replenishment demand. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [9]. - **Coking Coal**: The current supply - demand pattern remains intact. Domestic coal mine production has slightly increased, with low inventory levels and sufficient pre - sales orders. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The steel procurement in November has started. For ferromanganese, the supply has slightly decreased but is still at a high level, and the inventory increase has slowed down. For ferrosilicon, the production area's operating rate has increased, and the demand has weakened, with a significant increase in inventory [15]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar** - **Variety View**: Production and apparent demand have both decreased month - on - month, showing a weak supply - demand pattern in the off - season. Inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the decline is weaker than the seasonal pattern. The fundamental situation is generally balanced but on the weaker side. The support for raw materials from molten iron is gradually weakening [4]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: It has fallen to near the previous low, testing the support at 3000, and there may be fluctuations at low levels [5]. - **Hot - rolled Coil** - **Variety View**: Apparent demand and production have both declined, and inventory has increased slightly against the seasonal trend, indicating a certain inventory pressure. The demand support for raw materials from molten iron is weakening [4]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: It operates within a medium - term range, and there may be fluctuations after continuous short - term declines [5]. Iron Ore - **Variety View**: Molten iron production has decreased month - on - month, but there is an expectation of an increase due to the resumption of some blast furnaces. Steel mill maintenance information has increased, and attention should be paid to its implementation. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory. The supply of imported iron ore has decreased, and the static fundamental situation is slightly bullish [6]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Stop loss on short positions [7]. Coke - **Variety View**: The expectation of the fourth price increase is strengthening, and the profit of coke enterprises has slightly improved but is still mostly in a loss state. Molten iron production has declined again, steel mill profits are poor, and there is more blast furnace maintenance. However, the raw material inventory level is moderately low, and the short - term replenishment enthusiasm is okay. The market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [9]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, and it is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [10]. Coking Coal - **Variety View**: The National Development and Reform Commission has deployed energy supply guarantee work for the heating season. Domestically, coal mine production has slightly increased, with low inventory levels and sufficient pre - sales orders. The overall shipment situation is still good. The current supply - demand pattern has not been broken, and the market may fluctuate after a rapid decline [12]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, and it is advisable to leave the market and wait and see [13]. Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese** - **Variety View**: The supply in the production area has slightly decreased but is still at a high level compared to the same period. Inventory has continued to increase from the previous period, but the increase rate has slowed down. The steel procurement in November has started, and a landmark steel mill plans to purchase 16,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons compared to the previous month. Attention should be paid to the final pricing [15]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: The short - term cost side provides some support for the price, and it is cautiously bullish [16]. - **Ferrosilicon** - **Variety View**: The operating rate in the production area has continued to increase, the downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase significantly from the previous period [15]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: The short - term cost side provides some support for the price, but the fundamental situation has become looser. It is cautiously bullish [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Market sentiment is bullish, but due to the lack of obvious bullish drivers, it is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions. Technical operations are advised, and attention should be paid to the opportunities of going long on dips. Keep an eye on the USDA report and the soybean planting situation in Brazil [1][3] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Market sentiment is bullish, but the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited due to the current fundamental factors. Focus on the subsequent progress of China - Canada trade [1][6] - **Palm Oil**: It has temporarily stopped falling and is in a consolidation phase. There is still a risk of inventory accumulation, so it is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions. Pay attention to the fluctuations in import profits [1][8] - **Soybean Oil**: It is in a short - term rebound. Due to the lack of strong bullish drivers, it is treated as a rebound for the time being. In stage operations, pay attention to the opportunities of going long on dips. Monitor the progress of US biodiesel and China - US trade [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It has stopped falling and rebounded in the short term. The zero - start of coastal oil mills, zero inventory of rapeseed, and a significant decline in port inventory have driven up the domestic rapeseed oil price [1] - **Cotton**: It is in a short - term adjustment. The international market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, while the domestic market is digesting the supply pressure of the new season. The consumption of cotton - related products may not be overly pessimistic in the future. Pay attention to the low - buying opportunities within the month and the impact of the USDA supply - demand balance sheet on the domestic market [1][12] - **Red Dates**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish, but considering the strong basis and possible production cuts, the downside space may be limited for the time being. Short - selling operations should be carried out at high levels based on the changes in the mainstream purchase price and purchase progress [1][15] - **Live Pigs**: Be vigilant about the rebound. The supply pressure in Q4 remains high. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts, be vigilant about the rebound risk of the 01 contract, and pay attention to the 03 contract. For arbitrage, focus on the reverse - spread opportunities during the downward repair of the far - month premium [1][18] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 3059 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3097.71 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The basis and spreads of different contracts have changed to varying degrees [2] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: As of November 7, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 1033.4 million tons, an increase of 70.5 million tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills is 761.95 million tons, an increase of 7.20%. The soybean meal inventory is 99.86 million tons, a decrease of 13.39%. The inventory days of domestic feed enterprises are 7.75 days, a decrease of 3.39% [3] Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 2494 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2588.95 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. The basis and spreads of different contracts have changed [4] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: As of November 7, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 0 million tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory is 0.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.21 million tons. The international rapeseed production has recovered, and the domestic rapeseed meal is in a de - stocking state, but the demand is in the off - season [6] Palm Oil - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 8744 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day. The national average price is 8755 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. The import cost has increased, and the basis and spreads of different contracts have changed [7] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: As of November 7, 2025, the national key area commercial inventory is 59.73 million tons, an increase of 0.76%. The production in Malaysia in October has increased, and the export data varies. The palm oil is in a state of weakening supply - demand, with a continuous inventory accumulation expectation [8] Cotton - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 13515 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the previous day. The spot price has a slight increase. The basis and spreads of different contracts have changed, and the spinning profit has improved [9] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: The new cotton harvesting in the US, India, Pakistan, and Brazil is in progress. The domestic new cotton harvesting is nearly completed, the cost is basically locked, the inventory has increased, and the demand is showing signs of improvement [10][11] Red Dates - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 9365 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from the previous day. The spot price is relatively stable, the basis has changed, and the profit has decreased [13] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: The Xinjiang main - producing area is in the concentrated harvesting stage, the inventory has increased, and the downstream demand for new products is weak [15] Live Pigs - **Price and Spread**: The latest futures price of the main contract is 11795 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The spot price has a slight increase, the basis and spreads of different contracts have changed [16] - **Inventory and Supply - demand**: The short - term supply pressure is not prominent, the medium - term supply pressure in Q4 is confirmed, and the long - term capacity reduction needs to be further promoted. The demand is gradually stabilizing, and the slaughter and sales volume have increased [17][18]