Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term participation [1][8] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1][12] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1][15] - **Silicomanganese**: Weak rebound, wait-and-see [1][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: Weak rebound, wait-and-see [1][18] Core Views - **Steel**: Downstream demand for construction steel is weak, with real estate and infrastructure dragging down. High inventory and potential contradictions under high hot metal production lead to a weak operation [1][5] - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentals are moderately strong. Downstream finished products show holiday characteristics with obvious inventory accumulation. Observe the post-holiday inventory digestion speed. Negotiation rumors cause the futures price to fluctuate [1][7] - **Coke**: The second round of spot price increase is delayed, with obvious game between coke producers and steel mills. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to run weakly in a range [1][11] - **Coking Coal**: The overall coal mine output is expected to rise, and imports are expected to remain high. The short-term tight supply-demand situation has improved, but there may be supply-side disturbances later, and it is expected to run in a range [1][14] - **Silicomanganese**: Production area supply decreases slightly but remains high. Inventory continues to increase, and the new round of steel procurement has not fully started. Cost supports the price, but the upward drive is limited, with a possible short-term technical rebound [1][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: Production area supply is relatively stable, inventory increases significantly, and the absolute value of warehouse receipts is still high, suppressing the upward price. There may be a short-term technical rebound [1][17][18] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Information**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures prices mostly declined, and spot prices also showed a downward trend in most regions. Basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads also had corresponding changes [2] - **Market Situation**: Rebar's apparent demand decreased month-on-month due to the holiday, production slightly decreased, and inventory increased. Hot-rolled coil's apparent demand also declined month-on-month, production decreased slightly, and inventory increased, in line with seasonal performance [4] Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. There were changes in spreads, basis, sea freight, and spot indices [6] - **Market Situation**: Fundamentals are moderately strong. Downstream finished products show holiday characteristics with obvious inventory accumulation. Negotiation rumors cause the futures price to fluctuate [7] Coke - **Price Information**: Coke futures prices had different changes in different contracts, and spot prices were mostly stable. There were also changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and profit [10] - **Market Situation**: The second round of spot price increase is delayed, with obvious game between coke producers and steel mills. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to run weakly in a range [11] Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Coking coal futures prices had different changes in different contracts, and spot prices were mostly stable. There were also changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and inventory available days [13] - **Market Situation**: The overall coal mine output is expected to rise, and imports are expected to remain high. The short-term tight supply-demand situation has improved, but there may be supply-side disturbances later, and it is expected to run in a range [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: Futures and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had different changes. There were also changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as enterprise operating rates, production, and inventory [16] - **Market Situation**: Silicomanganese production area supply decreases slightly but remains high, inventory continues to increase, and the new round of steel procurement has not fully started. Ferrosilicon production area supply is relatively stable, inventory increases significantly, and the absolute value of warehouse receipts is still high, suppressing the upward price [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [5] - Asphalt: Bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish continuation [5] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The core driver of the energy market is the supply - demand imbalance, with supply often exceeding demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. The macro - environment, such as Sino - US trade frictions and US tariff policies, also has a significant impact on energy prices [1][2][5] - Different products have different supply - demand fundamentals. For example, crude oil is facing supply surplus in the off - season; LPG is affected by the decline in the cost of crude oil; and some products like methanol and urea have complex situations with both supply pressure and potential demand factors [1][2][46] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI down 2.05%, Brent down 1.47%, and SC down 0.26% [6] - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and there is a high probability that the oil price will be suppressed below $60 [7] - **Fundamentals**: The IEA expects global oil supply to increase by 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and further increase by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026. The growth of oil demand is expected to be lower. US commercial crude oil inventories increased as of October 3 [8] - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [440 - 450] [9] LPG - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the PG main contract closed at 4,063 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [12] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of crude oil has decreased, and Saudi Arabia has lowered the CP contract price. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries has declined [13] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4100 - 4200] [14] L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,918 yuan/ton, down 0.9% [17] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support has weakened, the supply pattern is loose, and although the demand season is coming, the restocking power is insufficient [19] - **Strategy**: The upward driving force is insufficient, and the market will continue to seek the bottom. Pay attention to the range of L [6800 - 7000] [19] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,602 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [22] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support has weakened, the post - holiday inventory has increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. There is a high pressure to reduce inventory in the future [24] - **Strategy**: Temporarily follow the cost to be weak and continue to seek the bottom. Pay attention to the range of PP [6500 - 6700] [24] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,692 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [27] - **Basic Logic**: The futures and spot prices have both fallen, the cost support has weakened, the inventory has increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. However, the absolute price is at a low valuation [28] - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change, continue to explore the bottom weakly. Be cautious when shorting. Pay attention to the range of V [4600 - 4800] [28] PX - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the PX spot price was 6,618 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [31] - **Basic Logic**: The supply and demand are expected to be loose, and the crude oil price has dropped significantly. The PXN and PX - MX are relatively high this year [32] - **Strategy**: The valuation is not high. Close short positions at low prices and sell call options. Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. Pay attention to the range of PX511 [6330 - 6440] [33] PTA - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,485 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the TA01 contract closed at 4,534 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [35] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support has weakened, and the supply and demand are expected to be loose. The terminal demand has improved slightly [36] - **Strategy**: The valuation is low. Close short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the range of TA01 [4450 - 4510] [37] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,190 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the EG01 contract closed at 4,185 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [39] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support has weakened, domestic plants have increased their loads, and the inventory has slightly increased. The terminal demand has improved but is expected to be under pressure [40] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and pay attention to opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG01 [4040 - 4120] [41] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,245 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the main 01 contract closed at 2,307 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: Sino - US trade frictions and US tariff policies are short - term negatives. The supply pressure is large, but the demand has improved slightly. The inventory has increased again [45] - **Strategy**: Continue to pay attention to opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the range of MA01 [2300 - 2350] [47] Urea - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main contract closed at 1,597 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [49] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is relatively loose, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is relatively good. The inventory has continued to accumulate [50] - **Strategy**: The recent Indian urea tender has limited positive effects, but the urea valuation is not high. Long - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long lightly at low prices. Pay attention to the range of UR601 [1590 - 1620] [52] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: No specific price change data provided [5] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is sufficient, the macro - risk has increased, and the energy price has weakened. However, the cooling weather and winter gas storage have a certain supporting effect on the gas price [5] - **Strategy**: Cautiously bearish [5] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: No specific price change data provided [5] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of crude oil has weakened, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the valuation is high [5] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [5] Glass - **Market Performance**: No specific price change data provided [5] - **Basic Logic**: The market sentiment is weak, the inventory has increased after the holiday, and the real - estate竣工 area has declined. The supply is under pressure [5] - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is loose. Short - term, short based on the 5 - day moving average [5] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: No specific price change data provided [5] - **Basic Logic**: The futures and spot prices have both fallen, the inventory has increased, the demand has improved slightly, and the supply is expected to decrease slightly [5] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a high premium structure. Short on rebounds in the medium - long term. Hold the long position of the spread between soda ash and glass [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term bearish**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, soybean meal lacks bullish drivers due to US soybean harvest, Sino - US negotiation voices, and improved rainfall in Brazil; rapeseed meal has mixed factors and follows the trend of soybean meal [1]. - **Short - term volatile**: Palm oil and soybean oil. Palm oil has potential future demand increase but is pressured by inventory accumulation; soybean oil follows the palm oil market [1]. - **High - level volatile**: Rapeseed oil, with low mill operation rate, consumption season, and speculation on biodiesel in the palm oil market [1]. - **Cautiously bearish**: Cotton and jujube. Cotton has supply pressure and weak demand; jujube has post - harvest pressure and potential weather - related price fluctuations [1]. - **Wide - range volatile**: Live pigs, with strong short - term supply pressure and uncertain demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price and Inventory**: Futures price dropped to 2902 yuan/ton, national average spot price was 3020.57 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 765.76 million tons, and bean meal inventory was 107.91 million tons [2][3]. - **Market Situation**: US old - crop soybean inventory was lower than expected, and Brazilian soybean planting rate was 8.2% as of Oct 4, 2025. It is in weak consolidation due to lack of bullish drivers [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Inventory**: Futures price dropped to 2348 yuan/ton, national average spot price was 2514.74 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons [5][6]. - **Market Situation**: International market has expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production. Domestic market is in de - stocking but in seasonal demand off - season, and it follows the soybean meal trend [6]. Palm Oil - **Price and Inventory**: Futures price was 9330 yuan/ton, national average price was 9370 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, 2025, commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons [7][9]. - **Market Situation**: Indonesia's bio - diesel policy is positive for future demand, but Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation in September pressured prices, and it is in high - level volatility [9]. Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices of different contracts declined slightly, CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14755 yuan/ton. Commercial inventory increased to 115.54 million tons [10]. - **Market Situation**: Internationally, supply pressure is increasing as new cotton harvests in major countries. Domestically, new cotton harvest is advancing, prices are weak, and demand is sluggish [11][12][13]. Jujube - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices of different contracts declined slightly, some spot prices remained stable. 36 sample enterprises' inventory was 9167 tons [14][15]. - **Market Situation**: New - season production is expected to decrease, but there is still pressure considering inventory. There may be price fluctuations before November [15]. Live Pigs - **Price and Inventory**: Futures prices of different contracts increased, national average spot price was 11270 yuan/ton. National sample enterprises' inventory increased to 3839.01 million tons [16]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term supply pressure is strong as October planned出栏量 increases. Long - term, the number of breeding sows is decreasing. Demand is uncertain after the holiday [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, Buy and Hold [1] - Silver: ★★, Stabilize and Go Long [1] - Copper: ★★, Long - term Hold [1] - Zinc: ★, Under Pressure [1] - Lead: ★, Rebound Under Pressure [1] - Tin: ★, Under Pressure [1] - Aluminum: ★, Rebound Under Pressure [1] - Nickel: ★, Under Pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: ★★, Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★, Wide - range Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Short - term safe - haven sentiment is strong, and long - term strategic allocation value remains due to factors like interest - rate cuts, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1] - Silver: Short - term volatility is large, but long - term demand is supported by global policy stimulus, with low inventory and high price sensitivity [1] - Copper: Despite short - term pressure, it is bullish in the long - term due to copper concentrate shortage and the explosion of green copper demand [1] - Zinc: Domestic demand is weak during the peak season, and it is expected to have increased supply and decreased demand in the long - term [1] - Lead: With the resumption of production of recycled lead smelters and the arrival of imported lead, and doubts about the peak - season consumption of downstream enterprises, the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Tin: Overseas disturbances are weakening, domestic smelters are under maintenance, and the peak - season demand remains to be observed, so the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Aluminum: The cost of alumina is falling, inventory is accumulating, and although there is some support from the terminal peak season, the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Nickel: Overseas disturbances are weakening, domestic supply is sufficient, inventory is accumulating, and downstream stainless steel is also piling up, so the price is falling under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Production is increasing, and demand from downstream industries provides support for the price [1] - Polysilicon: Supported by strong policy expectations, despite the contrast between strong expectations and weak reality [1] - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, with both increasing, and the continuous decline of warehouse receipts supports the price [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices are strong due to the deadlock in Sino - US relations, the US government shutdown, and uncertain situations in Japan and France [2] - **Basic Logic**: Sino - US relations are at a standstill, the US government is shut down, UK employment data is poor, and gold is expected to be in a long - term bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For domestic gold, maintain a long - position thinking both in the short and long - term. For silver, pay close attention to macro - sentiment and market rhythm, and consider layout on pullbacks. Long - term positions should be held continuously [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and consolidating at a high level [5][6] - **Industrial Logic**: Global copper mine supply is tight, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline, downstream demand is affected by the high price, but green copper demand remains resilient [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Protect short - term long positions with moving stop - profits. In the long - term, be bullish on copper. Focus on the range of 82,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,000 - 11,000 US dollars/ton for London copper [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices are under pressure, and London zinc has fallen nearly 2% [8][9] - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is loose, production is expected to increase, demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors is weak, and overseas inventory is at a low level [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold previous short positions cautiously, and consider selling hedging at high prices. In the long - term, it is a short - position allocation in the sector. Focus on the range of 21,800 - 22,400 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 2,900 - 3,000 US dollars/ton for London zinc [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure in the rebound, and alumina continues its weak trend [11][12] - **Industrial Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is high, inventory is accumulating, and downstream demand is stable. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short - term, and pay attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 20,500 - 21,500 yuan/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel continues its weak trend [15][16] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas disturbances to nickel ore supply are weakening, domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the peak - season consumption of downstream stainless steel is uncertain [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily observe nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 rises and then falls, with the late - session gain narrowing [19][20] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of lithium carbonate from Chile to China has decreased, the domestic supply is increasing, overseas supply is expected to recover in November, demand from the lithium - battery and cathode sectors is strong, and social inventory is expected to continue to decline [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Mainly observe, and focus on the range of 72,600 - 73,500 yuan/ton for 2601 [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Other varieties: No clear overall industry investment rating, but specific short - term outlooks are provided for each variety Core Views - The report provides short - term outlooks for multiple futures varieties, including short - term consolidation, short - term shocks, high - level shocks, and bearish views, and gives corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand fundamentals and market news [1] Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of soybean meal futures closed at 2932 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day. Spot prices generally declined. National average soybean crushing profit was - 111.6196 yuan/ton, down 18.40 yuan. The basis of soybean meal 01 decreased by 30 yuan to - 12 yuan [2] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, an increase of 70.70 million tons from the week of September 26; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 765.76 million tons, an increase of 45.85 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.29%. US old - crop soybean inventory was 316 million bushels as of September 1, 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Brazilian soybean planting rate as of October 4, 2025, was 8.2% [3][4] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term consolidation. With the harvest of US soybeans, the existence of Sino - US negotiation voices, and a slight improvement in Brazilian rainfall, there is a lack of driving factors. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade [1][4] Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2392 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. National average rapeseed meal spot price remained unchanged. National average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 258.7595 yuan/ton, down 77.40 yuan [5] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, a decrease of 1.53 million tons. International rapeseed production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestic rapeseed meal is in a destocking state, but demand enters the off - season [6] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term consolidation. Trade policies and high inventories lead to a mix of long and short factors. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal due to the lack of new driving factors [1][6] Palm Oil - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of palm oil futures closed at 9364 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan or 0.78% from the previous day. National average price decreased by 220 yuan to 9325 yuan/ton. Weekly commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons [7] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, 2025, national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.65%. Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy has made new progress, which is expected to increase future demand. Malaysian palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% compared with the previous month, but it continued to accumulate inventory in September [9] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term shock. It is temporarily treated as a high - level shock market. Although future demand is expected to increase, the inventory increase in September in Malaysia has put pressure on prices [1][9] Cotton - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of cotton futures (CF2601) closed at 13300 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day. Cotton commercial inventory increased by 17.46 million tons to 115.54 million tons [10] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: Internationally, US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries are increasing supply, and export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton is being continuously harvested, and the opening price is weakening. Demand is weak, with a decline in orders and operating rates, and September's foreign trade performance continued to weaken [11][12] - **Market Outlook**: Bearish. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term due to strong supply and weak demand [1][13] Jujube - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of jujube futures (CJ2601) closed at 11130 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons [14] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: New - season jujube production is expected to decrease, but the decline is not as large as in 2023. After combining with carry - over inventory, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap. The demand side is relatively flat [15] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish. There is still pressure after the new fruit is listed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1][15] Live Pig - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of live pig futures (lh2511) closed at 11125 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan or 1.72% from the previous day. National average spot price of live pigs decreased by 70 yuan to 11260 yuan/ton [16] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: In the short term, supply pressure is strong, with an expected increase in planned slaughter in October. In the medium term, the number of slaughtered pigs is expected to increase. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is decreasing. After the double - festival concentrated stocking, terminal demand is declining [17] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish. It is expected to continue the weak shock market, and it is recommended to continue short - allocation and reverse arbitrage, paying attention to risk control [1][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and hold (★★★) [1] - Silver: Stabilize and go long (★★★) [1] - Copper: Long - term hold (★★) [1] - Zinc: Short - term rebound with limited upside, long - term sell on rallies (★) [1] - Lead: Under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: Under pressure (★) [1] - Aluminum: Rebound (★★) [1] - Nickel: Under pressure (★) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Rebound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Pullback (★) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range oscillation (★) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions such as unstable G2 relations, chaotic situations in Japan and France, and the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict lead to a resurgence of short - term risk - aversion sentiment, making gold and silver good investment choices both in the short and long term [1][3] - Copper is expected to perform well in the long run due to factors like copper concentrate shortages and the explosion of green copper demand, despite short - term market fluctuations [1][7] - Zinc supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, so it is a short - side configuration in the long term, with limited short - term upside [1][10] - Aluminum prices are expected to rebound in the short term, although facing inventory pressure [1][14] - Nickel prices are under pressure due to sufficient supply and inventory accumulation [1][18] - Lithium carbonate fundamentals are in a tight balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][22] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Geopolitical chaos causes risk - aversion sentiment to heat up, leading to a sharp rise in gold and silver prices [2] - **Basic Logic**: Unresolved Sino - US relations, political instability in Japan and France, long - term positive factors for gold such as global monetary easing and dollar credit decline, and a continuous supply shortage of silver [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, maintain a long - position thinking in both the short and long term; for silver, pay attention to macro - sentiment and market rhythm, and consider long - term holding [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper gaps up and rises, and London copper rises by over 4% [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply concerns intensify due to mine accidents and production slowdowns. Production is expected to decline, and downstream demand is strong in green industries [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Use trailing stops for short - term long positions. Be optimistic about copper in the long run and focus on specific price ranges [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fall under pressure, and London zinc fluctuates around the 3000 mark [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, but demand is weak. There is a risk of a soft squeeze on London zinc inventory [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term rebound with limited upside. Sell - hedge and go short on rallies in the long term, and focus on specific price ranges [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebound under pressure, and alumina continues to be weak [12] - **Industrial Logic**: There is an inventory build - up in electrolytic aluminum, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the short term, pay attention to downstream processing enterprise operations, and focus on specific price ranges [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices fall under pressure, and stainless steel shows a weak trend [16] - **Industrial Logic**: Nickel supply is sufficient, and stainless steel demand is uncertain during the peak season [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see, pay attention to downstream consumption improvement, and focus on specific price ranges [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens slightly lower and fluctuates at a low level throughout the day [20] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Domestic production hits a new high, and demand remains firm. Social inventory may continue to decline [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see, and focus on the price range of 2601 [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish in the short - term, long - term bullish potential [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [5] - Asphalt: Bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish continuation [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [5] Core Views - The core driver of the energy and chemical market is supply - demand imbalance, with supply generally exceeding demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. However, factors such as cost support, seasonal demand, and macro - policies also affect price trends [2][3][5] - In the short term, most products are expected to continue their weak trends, but some products with low valuations have limited downward space [2][3][5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices showed a mixed trend, with WTI up 0.29%, Brent up 0.94%, and SC down 2.68% [6] - **Basic Logic**: Trump's actions released macro - risks, but the core driver is supply surplus in the off - season, and oil prices are likely to be suppressed below $60 [7] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November; US oil rig count decreased; Russian exports are stable. Demand is expected to grow moderately in the future, and US commercial crude inventories increased [8] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the $60 shale oil break - even point [9] LPG - **Market Performance**: The PG main contract closed at 4063 yuan/ton on October 10, with a 0.37% decline [12] - **Basic Logic**: The decline in oil prices and Saudi's CP price cut put pressure on LPG. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand has a slight recovery [13] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions as the trend follows oil prices [14] L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6983 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan [18] - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory increased, and it will follow cost fluctuations. Supply is in a loose pattern, but low valuations and seasonal demand limit the downward space [19] - **Strategy**: The industry can hedge at high prices due to the contango structure [19] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6693 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [23] - **Basic Logic**: After - holiday inventory accumulation exceeds the seasonal norm, and supply - demand remains loose. It will follow cost fluctuations and face de - stocking pressure [24] - **Strategy**: The industry can hedge at high prices due to the contango structure [24] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4721 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [27] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the chemical sector declines together. Inventory accumulates, but low valuations limit further price drops [28] - **Strategy**: The market will continue to explore the bottom, but be cautious about short - selling [28] PX - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the PX spot price was 6618 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight - balance but expected to be loose. PXN and PX - MX are relatively high. Macro factors put pressure on prices [32] - **Strategy**: Close short positions at low valuations, sell call options, and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [33] PTA - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the PTA spot price in East China was 4485 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [35] - **Basic Logic**: Supply load increases, demand has a "Silver October" expectation, but cost support weakens. Supply - demand is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [36] - **Strategy**: Close short positions at low valuations and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [37] MEG - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the East China MEG spot price was 4190 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [39] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device load increases, overseas devices change little. Demand improves slightly, but inventory accumulates. Cost support weakens [40] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [41] Methanol - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the East China methanol spot price was 2245 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: Sino - US trade frictions and tariff policies are short - term negatives. Supply pressure is large, but demand improves slightly. Cost support stabilizes [45] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [47] Urea - **Market Performance**: On October 10, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. Inventory accumulates, but cost support exists [50] - **Strategy**: The recent Indian tender has limited positive effects. Look for long - term light - position long - entry opportunities at low prices [52] Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: Supply is sufficient, and gas prices decline. Although the increase in drilling rigs and seasonal demand support prices, macro - risks put pressure on them [5] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: Cost support weakens, supply - demand is loose, and valuations are high. It is recommended to hold short positions [5] Glass - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices decline, inventory increases, and demand is weak. Supply is under pressure. Short - sell based on the 5 - day moving average [5] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices decline slightly, inventory increases, and demand improves slightly. Supply may decrease slightly. Hedge at high prices and look for long - short spread opportunities [5]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹表需受节日影响环比下降，产量略降，库存上升。整体来看，建筑钢材下游需求仍 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 显疲弱，房地产及基建表现继续形成拖累，供需驱动力量有限，钢材整体库存偏高，铁 水高企下矛盾有上升风险，偏弱运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷表需受节日影响环比回落，产量小幅下降，库存上升，总体符合季节性表现。钢材 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 整体需求仍然偏弱，库存水平偏高，供需层面缺少持续向上驱动，短期区间偏弱运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 短多参与 | 基本面中性偏强。下游成材端体现假期特征，累库明显，观察节后库存消化速度。宏观 | | ★ | | 避险情绪降温，盘面震荡偏强运行。 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 焦炭现货第二轮提涨延迟，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润一般，现货生产相对稳定。铁水产 量维持高位运行，原料需求较稳定。焦炭本身供需相对平衡，跟随焦煤区间偏弱运行。 | | ★ | | | | 焦煤 | 谨慎看空 | 煤矿整体产量有回升预期，进口预计维持高位，供应边际将继续改善。铁水产量绝对水 平较高， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the copper pricing logic shifted from "dominated by Chinese demand" to a ternary structure of "capital pricing + resource politics + supply chain control", with the financial attribute of copper significantly enhanced. The copper price showed a trend of "first decline, then rise, and then fluctuate", and the fluctuation range increased significantly [3]. - The deepening of the Sino - US game reshaped the global copper resource flow, pricing mechanism, and trade pattern. The copper price center will be systematically raised due to the re - evaluation of strategic value, and the fluctuation will intensify due to the fierce game [3]. - In the fourth quarter, the copper market faces three key points: the path after the Fed's hawkish interest rate cut and the speculation of a US economic recession; the variables in the Sino - US game, especially whether the Sino - US tariff negotiation in November will be postponed again; and the re - balance of global copper supply and demand and the inflection point of global copper visible inventory destocking [3]. - In the short term, it is recommended to hold copper speculative long orders, set trailing stops, and be cautious about chasing high prices, mainly trying long on dips. Industrial customers should flexibly adjust the hedging ratio, lock in reasonable profits, and strictly manage positions. In the long term, copper is favored due to its status as an important strategic resource and a substitute for precious metals, as well as the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Review of the First Three - Quarter Market - In early January, due to Trump's weaker - than - expected tariff policy on China and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, Shanghai copper started to rebound from the bottom, breaking through the 76,000 - yuan mark [6]. - In February, the lower - than - expected copper inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and increased overseas mine - end disturbances pushed Shanghai copper to break through the 77,000 - yuan mark [6]. - In March, Trump's escalating threat of imposing import tariffs on copper led to a rapid widening of the price difference between COMEX and LME copper, and Shanghai copper broke through the 80,000 - yuan psychological barrier [6]. - In April, after the implementation of the global tariff war and the exemption of copper tariffs, there was a sharp reversal in expectations, causing copper prices to plummet. Subsequently, with the easing of Sino - US relations, copper prices oscillated and recovered [7]. - In June, due to the reignition of the Middle East conflict and the continuous decline of LME copper inventory, copper prices increased against the seasonal trend [7]. - In July and August, Trump's repeated tariff policies on copper led to significant fluctuations in copper prices. In September, with the Fed's interest rate cut and the supply shortage expectation of copper concentrates, copper prices reached new highs for the year [8]. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US Reciprocal Tariff Era and Global Economic Slowdown - In the US reciprocal tariff era, Trump's unpredictable policies disrupted market confidence in the US and global economies, leading to a surge in market risk - aversion sentiment. WTO predicted a decline in global goods trade volume, and IMF predicted a slowdown in global economic GDP growth [11]. - Global major economies' inflation situations were differentiated, and central banks' monetary policies shifted from tightening to easing. Geopolitical risks increased significantly, and military use of copper might increase due to the global arms race [14][19]. 2.2 Trump's Copper Tariff (TACO) and Increased Policy Uncertainty - Trump listed copper as a "national security vital resource", and his copper tariff policies had a profound impact on the global copper market. If the 25% copper import tariff policy were implemented, it would distort the global copper trade supply path [21][22]. - The price difference between COMEX and LME copper increased significantly, stimulating cross - market arbitrage. Although the tariff on refined copper was unexpectedly exempted, Trump's tariff policies accelerated the regionalization of the copper supply chain and increased capital risk - aversion sentiment [23][33]. 2.3 US Employment Pressure and Attention to the Fed's Interest Rate Cut in October - US employment data was weak, and inflation showed signs of rising. The Fed cut interest rates in September, and the market expected further interest rate cuts in October and December. The impact of the Fed's monetary policy on copper was greater than that of the domestic central bank's policy [36][42][46]. 2.4 Economic Cycle Reincarnation and Copper at the Eve of a Historic Demand Boom - Globally, the economy was at the end of the sixth Kondratieff cycle and the fifth Juglar cycle. Copper, as an important raw material, was on the verge of a historic demand boom [47]. - Domestically, although there were signs of economic recovery, there were still drag factors such as the real - estate slump. Copper was sensitive to interest rates, exchange rates, and domestic and foreign monetary policies [50]. Chapter 3: Supply Analysis 3.1 Grasberg Mine Shutdown in Indonesia Aggravates the Copper Ore Supply - Demand Gap - Global copper ore supply faced challenges such as long - term insufficient capital expenditure, falling ore grades, and increased mining difficulties. The shutdown of major mines such as Grasberg in Indonesia and political protests at some mines led to a reduction in global copper ore supply [52][55]. 3.2 Deep Inversion of Smelter Processing Fees and Industry Calls for Anti - Involution - Global copper smelting capacity utilization remained high, but copper concentrate supply was short. Smelter processing fees were deeply inverted, and the industry called for anti - involution. The government issued relevant policies to support the development of the copper industry [59][60][64]. 3.3 High Refined Copper Output and Continued Pressure on Imports - In 2025, global smelting capacity was released at a high level, and domestic refined copper output reached a record high. However, due to factors such as high premiums of US and LME copper and the closure of the import window, domestic refined copper imports were weak, and exports increased [67]. 3.4 High Global Visible Inventory and Tight Non - US Inventory - Global copper visible inventory was at a historically high level, mainly concentrated in US COMEX warehouses, while non - US inventory was tight. High copper prices had an inhibitory effect on demand, and attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory inflection point [72][77]. Chapter 4: Demand Analysis 4.1 The Fourth Industrial Revolution Triggers a Surge in Electricity Demand, and Green Copper Demand Shines - The fourth industrial revolution, including the development of new energy and AI, led to a significant increase in electricity demand, which in turn stimulated copper demand. China's power investment maintained resilience, and overseas power markets were also booming [78][79][80]. 4.2 Real Estate in a Difficult Bottom - Grinding Phase and Low Market Confidence - The real - estate market was in a downturn, with falling prices, weak sales, and a large inventory of unsold properties. This had a negative impact on overall copper demand [86][88]. 4.3 The Impact of the Trade - in Policy and the Withdrawal of National Subsidies on the Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry's demand for copper maintained resilience, but with the withdrawal of national subsidies and reduced overseas replenishment demand, the industry's performance was expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [91][92]. 4.4 High - Growth of New Energy Vehicles and Booming Green Copper Demand - New energy vehicles had a high copper consumption rate, and global new energy vehicle copper consumption was expected to increase significantly in 2025, becoming an important incremental factor in copper demand [94][95]. 4.5 The Return of Speculative Forces and the Repetition of the 2024 Copper Price Rally - Speculative forces in the copper market became active again, and overseas speculative funds' actions had an impact on copper prices. China needed to enhance its position as a copper pricing center [98][104]. 4.6 Forecast of the 2025 Refined Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Overall, the supply of overseas copper concentrates was tight, while domestic smelting capacity was operating at a high level. The supply - demand of refined copper shifted from a tight balance to a slight shortage, both domestically and globally [105].

让衍生品成为 新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 报告日期：2025/10/10 截至 9 月 30 日，硅锰连续合约收盘价 5628 元/吨，硅铁连续合约收盘价 5310 元/吨，对应历史分位值分别为 9.6%、13.7%，当前价格较上半年低点的下 行空间有限，十月份仍需关注煤炭价格变动以及宏观情绪变化。操作上建议短 期空仓观望为主，中期关注商品季节性下跌后逢低做多的机会。价格方面，硅 锰主力合约价格参考区间 5400-7000 元/吨，硅铁主力合约价格参考区间 5100- 6600 元/吨。 风险与关注：反内卷、会议窗口期、美联储降息、粗钢压减政策、澳矿 发运、南非限制出口、煤矿复产、电力改革等。 K 2025 年黑色商品四季度策略报告 铁合金 四季度价格或前低后高，关注合金低估值区间 黑色研究团队 中辉期货研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2015]75 号 从国内铁合金基本面来看，目前硅锰日均产量约为 3 万吨，硅铁日均产量 约为 1.65 万吨，均处于同期高位。表内库 ...