Report Industry Investment Ratings - All the varieties (soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, red dates, and live pigs) are rated as "short-term bullish" [1] Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: Short-term bullish, but chasing long positions requires caution. The final area and yield data are awaited for new guidance [1][4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short-term bullish. Opportunities for short-term long positions on dips can be considered, but chasing long positions should be done with caution. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of China-Australia relations and Canada's response to China's anti-dumping results [1][6] - **Palm Oil**: Short-term bullish, with a focus on buying on dips. The impact of the Russia-Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the actual export and production of Malaysian palm oil this month should be monitored [1][7] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. Consider buying on dips due to the low valuation of international cotton prices. The short-term rhythm of Zhengzhou cotton focuses on the supply before the new cotton is listed [1][11] - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bullish. The market is recommended to buy on dips for now, with the strategy expected to be strong first and then weak [1][14] - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bullish. It is not advisable to blindly short in the short term. Attention can be paid to establishing long positions in distant contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations around strong contracts [1][17] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The planting weather of US soybeans is generally smooth. China is in the inventory accumulation stage for soybeans and soybean meal, with the inventory accumulation rate expected to slow down in August. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply and demand report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area but increased the yield per unit, resulting in a decrease in the final US soybean production and ending inventory [1] - **Price and Inventory**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03%. The national average spot price was 3101.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32%. As of August 15, the national port soybean inventory was 892.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 680.4 million tons, a decrease of 30.16 million tons from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 101.47 million tons, an increase of 1.12 million tons from last week [2][3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a bullish and volatile view, but be cautious when chasing long positions. Pay attention to the final area and yield data [1][4] Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The global rapeseed production has recovered year-on-year, but there is a risk of a decrease in the yield per unit of Canadian rapeseed. China's oil mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are decreasing month-on-month, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level year-on-year. The 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the anti-dumping deposit on rapeseed provide strong support for the rapeseed meal price [1] - **Price and Inventory**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2627 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.88%. The national average spot price was 2675.26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.40%. As of August 15, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 11.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 2.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.65 million tons from last week [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short-term bullish. Opportunities for short-term long positions on dips can be considered, but chasing long positions should be done with caution. Pay attention to the subsequent progress of China-Australia relations and Canada's response to China's anti-dumping results [1][6] Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are beneficial to the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The export data in the first 20 days of August are good [1] - **Inventory and Export**: As of August 15, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 61.73 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons from last week. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from August 1 - 20 was 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase from the same period last month [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short-term bullish, with a focus on buying on dips. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the actual export and production of Malaysian palm oil this month [1][7] Cotton - **Market Situation**: The short-term soil moisture of US cotton continues to improve, which is negative for the market. The demand side still faces a shortage. However, the international cotton price is at a relatively low valuation level. The short-term rhythm of Zhengzhou cotton focuses on the supply before the new cotton is listed [1][11] - **Price and Inventory**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, decreased by 0.50% to 14055 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.03% to 15239 yuan/ton. The ICE cotton main contract decreased by 0.04% to 67.53 cents/pound. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased by 15.06 million tons to 185.61 million tons [8][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. Consider buying on dips. Pay attention to the potential hurricane threat to US cotton in the future and the "Golden September and Silver October" market performance of the downstream [1][11] Red Dates - **Market Situation**: It is initially estimated that the total expected production of the Xinjiang southern Xinjiang red date market in the 2025/26 season is in the range of 500,000 - 580,000 tons, with a confirmed production reduction, but the reduction amplitude is likely to be less than that in the 2023/24 season. In the short term, the market speculation period around the purchase price before November is relatively long, and the recent inventory reduction speed has accelerated, which is beneficial to the bullish trend [1][14] - **Price and Inventory**: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, decreased by 0.77% to 11530 yuan/ton. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons from last week, but still higher than the same period [12][13] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. The strategy is expected to be strong first and then weak. Currently, the market is recommended to buy on dips [1][14] Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August increased by 5.26% month-on-month, and there is still supply pressure. In the medium term, the number of newborn piglets from January to July continued to increase, and it is expected that the slaughter volume of live pigs in the second half of the year will still have room for growth. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows in June was 40.43 million, and there will still be relatively high supply pressure until May 2026. However, the incremental capacity of large-scale breeding enterprises is basically zero, and the inventory of small and medium-sized farmers has even decreased slightly [1][16][17] - **Price and Inventory**: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2511, decreased by 0.72% to 13775 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton. The national sample enterprise live pig inventory was 37.6332 million, an increase of 1.17% from last month; the slaughter volume was 10.9168 million, a decrease of 3.01% from last month [15][16] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish. It is not advisable to blindly short in the short term. Attention can be paid to establishing long positions in distant contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations around strong contracts [1][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market turns to expect a September rate cut after digesting short - term bearish sentiment, geopolitical easing, and Powell's potentially hawkish views. Gold and silver are recommended for short - term bottom - fishing and long - term strategic allocation. Copper is recommended for short - term dip - buying and long - term bullish outlook. Zinc is expected to rebound in the short - term and be shorted on rallies in the long - term. Lead is under short - term pressure. Tin and aluminum are under short - term pressure for rebounds. Nickel is under short - term pressure. Industrial silicon rebounds, while polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in high - level oscillations [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Bearish sentiment is partially digested, showing short - term signs of stopping the decline. Attention is paid to Powell's speech on Friday [4]. - **Basic Logic**: There is a divergence of opinions among Fed officials on a September rate cut. The UK's inflation rate in July reached a new high in 18 months, weakening the market's expectation of a rate cut. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, it may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may be supported around 766, and long - term orders can be considered after stabilization. Silver is more volatile in the short - term, and attention is paid to the effectiveness of support around 9000. Attention is also paid to the meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine [6]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range with converging volatility [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are disturbances in copper mines recently, the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. The production of refined copper may decrease marginally in August - September due to increased smelting maintenance. It is currently the off - season for consumption, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. The overall copper supply and demand are in a tight balance throughout the year [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try buying copper on dips. In the long - term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the China - US game. The focus ranges are [78000, 80000] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton for London copper [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds, getting support from the lower moving average [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrate is abundant in 2025. The production of refined zinc is expected to increase in August. On the demand side, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The domestic zinc social and exchange inventories are accumulating, and the downstream is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to partially take profit on previous short positions. In the long - term, short zinc on rallies. The focus ranges are [22000, 22600] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton for London zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, while alumina shows a slight stabilizing trend [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are still uncertainties in overseas macro - trade policies. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry has decreased, and the inventory has increased slightly. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term, and attention is paid to overseas bauxite changes [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the inventory changes of aluminum ingots during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are weak, and stainless steel is under pressure and declining [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - environment is still uncertain. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and the production of refined nickel has increased with accumulated inventory. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and it still faces over - supply pressure during the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 gaps down and hits the daily limit down [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: Negative news impacts the market, but the corresponding production cannot make up for the gap. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, but with the approaching peak season of terminal demand, the inventory structure may amplify price elasticity. The main contract is expected to rise further after the strengthening of the de - stocking expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of [80000 - 85000] [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish trend continues [1] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish trend continues [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease, supply surplus pressure rises, and oil prices trend downward. Buy put options [1][3][4] - LPG: Cost-side drags, upward momentum is insufficient. Take profit on long positions [1][7][8] - L: Market sentiment weakens, oscillates weakly. Wait for dips to go long [1][11][15] - PP: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, industry expectations are weak. Follow the cost to oscillate weakly and wait and see [1][18][22] - PVC: Market sentiment turns weak, inventory accumulates. Hold short positions [1][25][28] - PX: Supply-demand tight balance eases, oil prices oscillate weakly. Hold short positions at high levels and sell call options [1][31][33] - PTA: Supply-demand tight balance, oil prices oscillate weakly. Gradually take profit on short positions, buy put options, and look for opportunities to go long at lows [1][35][37] - MEG: Supply-demand is slightly loose, inventory is low. Hold short positions cautiously and look for low-buying opportunities [2][39][41] - Methanol: Negative factors may be exhausted. Take profit on 09 short positions, look for 01 low-buying opportunities, sell 10 put options, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [2][43][45] - Urea: Fundamentals are weak, but the fertilizer export window to India opens. Hold 01 long positions and sell put options [2][47][49] - Asphalt: Cost-side drags and demand declines. Lightly short [2][52][54] - Propylene: Cost support weakens, oscillates weakly. Wait and see in the short term [2][56][57] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined, WTI dropped 1.48%, Brent dropped 1.22%, and SC dropped 0.02% [3] - **Basic Logic**: After the US-Russia talks, geopolitical conflicts tend to ease. The support of the peak season for oil prices gradually decreases, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices gradually rises. Oil prices still have room to compress, and there is a probability of being pressed to around $60 in the medium and long term [4] - **Fundamentals**: From January to July this year, Azerbaijan's oil exports through the BTC pipeline decreased by 5.9% year-on-year. In July, India's crude oil imports dropped to the lowest level since September 2023. As of the week of August 8, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break-even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of [470 - 490] for SC [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 19, the PG main contract closed at 4314 yuan/ton, up 0.14% month-on-month [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: The cost-side oil price is weak, and the fundamentals are okay. The basis is at a high level, and the supply and demand have improved. The cost side is the main drag, and the upward momentum is weak [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. The ratio of LPG to crude oil is similar to that of the same period last year, with a neutral valuation. The trend mainly follows the oil price. Take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of [4200 - 4300] for PG [9] L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7307 yuan/ton, down 0.4% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 379 lots [11][12][13] - **Industry News**: In the short term, the cost support of PE weakens, the supply pressure eases, and the demand is expected to be strong. It is expected that the polyethylene price will run strongly, with an increase of 10 - 50 yuan/ton [14] - **Basic Logic**: Demand recovers slowly, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The parking ratio increases, the LL import profit margin decreases, and the production is expected to decline. The peak season for shed films is coming, and the demand support is strengthening. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. Wait for dips to go long. Pay attention to the range of [7200 - 7400] for L [1][15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and wait for dips to go long [16] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 7016 yuan/ton, down 0.3% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 1180 lots [18][19][20] - **Industry News**: The downstream demand is weak, and the market is affected by bearish sentiment. However, the cost side still has support, and the macro - policy is favorable. It is expected that the market will oscillate bearishly around 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton in the short term [21] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, industry expectations are weak, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The upstream maintenance intensity declines, the export profit margin remains negative, and the demand starts slowly. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm in the peak season. Follow the cost to oscillate weakly and wait and see. Pay attention to the range of [6900 - 7100] for PP [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, and go long on dips [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 5001 yuan/ton, down 1.0% day-on-day. The warehouse receipts increased by 134 lots [25][26][27] - **Industry News**: Some enterprises' devices are shut down, and India issued an anti - dumping tax on PVC imports. The domestic supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and the market will continue to run weakly. It is expected that the spot price of calcium carbide - type five in East China will be in the range of 4700 - 4850 yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment turns weak, both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. Social inventories have accumulated for 8 consecutive weeks. Multiple sets of devices are planned to be overhauled this week, and the weekly output is expected to decline. In August, new production capacity will be released, and the internal and external demand is in the off - season. The export is disturbed by policies, and the pressure of inventory accumulation in the industrial chain still exists. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions as the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory in August [29] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PX in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton [31][32] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing their loads. The demand side is weak but expected to improve. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the PX inventory is still high. The PXN is not low. The oil price oscillates weakly. Cautiously bearish [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions at high levels and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [6680 - 6790] for PX511 [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PTA spot price in East China was 4659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [35][36] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, the supply - side device maintenance intensity increases, and the start - up load decreases. The demand side is stable, and the start - up load of downstream polyester and terminal weaving stops falling and rebounds. The supply - demand tight balance in August is expected to ease. The TA processing fee is low, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at lows [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profit on short positions, buy put options, and look for opportunities to go long on TA at lows. Pay attention to the range of [4700 - 4750] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [39][40] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices are slightly increasing their loads, and the expected arrival volume increases, with the total supply increasing. The start - up load of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is expected to rebound. The supply and demand in August are slightly loose, and the oil price trend is downward. However, the ethylene glycol inventory is low, supporting the price. In the short term, it oscillates weakly, but the downward space may be limited [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of [4380 - 4430] for EG01 [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2355 yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton [43][44] - **Basic Logic**: The previously overhauled domestic devices have recovered, and the overseas methanol device load is at a high level, increasing the supply - side pressure. The demand is weak, and the social inventory is accumulating. The negative factors may be exhausted [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, look for 01 low - buying opportunities, sell 10 put options, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads. Pay attention to the range of [2385 - 2415] for MA01 [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: The urea device maintenance is low this week, and the start - up load is expected to rise, increasing the supply - side pressure. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the fertilizer export is good. The cost side has support. In the short term, the domestic urea fundamentals are still loose, but the price fluctuates within a range under the export quota system and the "peak - shaving and summer - ensuring" policy. The market speculates on the expectation of fertilizer/urea exports to India [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of [1790 - 1835] for UR01 [51] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 19, the BU main contract closed at 3453 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month - on - month [52][53] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production increase and trends weakly. The asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The asphalt profit is okay, and the cracking spread is at a high level. The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the long - term asphalt price is under pressure due to the typhoon in the south [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The cracking spread and the BU - FU spread are at high levels, with a high valuation. As OPEC gradually increases production, the raw material side is relatively sufficient. The asphalt is bearish in the medium and long term. Lightly short. Pay attention to the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [55] Propylene - **Market Review**: The PL01 closing price was 6404 yuan/ton, down 0.7% day - on - day. The warehouse receipts increased by 197 lots [56][57] - **Industry News**: The PDH device has restarted, and the regional circulation has increased, but the enterprise inventory is low. The downstream restocking is okay. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to increase after the restart of some PDH devices, but the demand is also expected to increase due to the recovery of some PP devices. The price may oscillate within a range [59] - **Basic Logic**: Both futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. The upstream supply is abundant, and the PDH cost support weakens. The downstream is gradually entering the seasonal peak season. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm. The short - term market sentiment is weak. Wait and see [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term participation [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: High production due to good furnace profits, weak demand, and expected looser supply-demand after lower-than-expected production cuts. Market sentiment has cooled, but policy interference may occur [1][4]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, with a generally stable fundamental situation. Production cuts have limited impact, and supply-demand tends to be loose. Futures are weak, but short-term downside may be limited [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Slightly increased pig iron production, higher arrivals and shipments of foreign ores, and increased inventories at ports and steel mills. The weak economic data in July and the off-season characteristics of finished products drag down the ore price, which fluctuates weakly with steel prices [1][8]. - **Coke**: The spot price has started the seventh round of increases but may face resistance from steel mills. Coke enterprises' profits have improved, and the supply-demand is relatively balanced. The "anti-involution" atmosphere has faded, and coking coal prices are weakening [1][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is flat, Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly, and the inventory transfer speed has slowed down. Pig iron production remains high, and raw material demand is stable. Market sentiment has cooled, and futures prices have a downward correction space [1][16]. - **Ferromanganese**: The fundamental situation is becoming looser, with short-term demand resilience. Total inventory is decreasing, but the absolute level is still high. Manganese ore shipments have increased, and port inventory is stable [1][20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The fundamental situation is becoming looser, with high enterprise inventory and increased warehouse receipts. Supply pressure is obvious [1][20]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar futures prices have declined, and spot prices in various regions have also decreased. Hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices show a similar downward trend, with some regional differences [2]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For rebar, avoid excessive short selling due to potential policy interference. For hot-rolled coil, it is advisable to wait and see as the short-term downside may be limited [5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore futures prices have slightly declined, and spot prices of various ore types have also decreased. There are changes in spreads, basis, and freight rates [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short-term participation [9]. Coke - **Price and Data Information**: Coke futures prices have small fluctuations, and spot prices remain stable. Production, inventory, and profit data show that the supply-demand is relatively balanced, and coke enterprises' profits have improved [11]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Cautiously bearish [13]. Coking Coal - **Price and Data Information**: Coking coal futures prices have changed, and spot prices are mostly stable. Production, inventory, and other data show that the inventory transfer speed has slowed down, and market sentiment has cooled [15]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Cautiously bearish [17]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: Futures and spot prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon have declined. There are changes in basis and spreads [19]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, short-term short selling can be considered as the overall trend has reversed, although short-term rebounds may occur after over - selling [21].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no specific industry - wide investment rating provided in the report. However, for individual varieties, ratings are as follows: Gold - ★ (suggesting long - term strategic allocation), Silver - ★ (short - term attention to support level, long - term long), Copper - ★ (long - term bullish), Zinc - ★ (short - term bearish, long - term wait for shorting opportunity), Lead - ★★ (short - term bearish), Tin - ★ (short - term rebound), Aluminum - ★★ (short - term bearish), Nickel - ★★ (short - term bearish), Industrial Silicon - ★ (short - term bearish), Polysilicon - ★ (high - level shock, callback to buy), Lithium Carbonate - ★ (high - level shock, hold long positions) [1] Group 2: Core Views - **Gold**: Short - term, due to the significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine issue and the decline of risk - aversion sentiment, the disk lacks upward momentum. Long - term, with the loose monetary policies of major countries, central banks' continuous gold purchasing, and the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern, there is a need for asset allocation in gold, so it should be strategically allocated [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term, there are concerns about liquidity, and it is more elastic. It is affected by gold fluctuations. Long - term, with strong global liquidity and re - industrialization demand and limited supply increase, the upward trend is unchanged. Short - term, pay attention to the performance around 9150, and long - term, go long [1]. - **Copper**: Short - term, the upcoming global central bank annual meeting and the possible hawkish statement of Powell may suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, causing the US dollar to rebound and copper prices to be under pressure. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level. Long - term, as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game, with the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand, it is bullish [1][7]. - **Zinc**: Short - term, due to insufficient demand and inventory accumulation, the Shanghai zinc is under pressure and in a weak shock. Long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, waiting for shorting opportunities on rebounds [1][11]. - **Lead**: Short - term, with the recovery of primary lead production and the weakening impact of environmental protection on secondary lead in Anhui, supply is relatively loose, and downstream battery consumption is poor, so lead prices are under pressure [1]. - **Tin**: Short - term, with the slow recovery of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and a slight increase in the domestic refined tin smelting industry's start - up, and the tin ingot inventory reaching a high level in the off - season, tin prices show a short - term rebound [1]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term, with stable bauxite supply at home and abroad, inventory accumulation in domestic mainstream consumption areas during the off - season, and poor performance in terminal consumption and exports, aluminum prices are under pressure [1][15]. - **Nickel**: Short - term, with the weakening price of nickel ore in the Philippines and the accumulation of domestic refined nickel social inventory, and the weakening of inventory reduction driven by stainless - steel production cuts, nickel prices are under pressure [1][19]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term, affected by the new energy sector's fluctuations, with no major supply - demand contradiction in itself, it is under obvious pressure from the top and tests the lower support [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Despite a bearish fundamental outlook and expected inventory accumulation in August, due to the photovoltaic industry symposium held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it is expected to be in high - level shock, and buy on callbacks [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply contracts unexpectedly, and with the approaching peak season of terminal demand, wait for the strengthening of the de - stocking drive. Hold long positions. It is in high - level shock in the short term [1][23]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Global parties are seeking a geopolitical cease - fire, and the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting may have a radical stance, leading to an obvious adjustment in gold and silver prices [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The market expects Powell to have a radical stance at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The US housing starts in July reached a five - month high, contrary to expectations. There is progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire. Short - term, the probability of gold breaking through the range is low, while long - term, gold may continue a long - bull trend due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may have support around 766 in the short term. Pay attention to long - order entry after stabilization. Silver has greater short - term emotional fluctuations and is adjusting downward. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the support at 9000. Also, pay attention to the tri - party meeting of the US, Russia, and Ukraine [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper lost the 9700 - level mark, and Shanghai copper was under pressure and declined. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Recently, there have been disturbances in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. With the increase in smelting maintenance in August - September, refined copper production may decline marginally. It is currently the off - season, and downstream demand is weak, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. Overseas exchange copper inventory has increased slightly, and domestic social inventory has rebounded slightly. The annual copper supply - demand is in a tight balance [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the approaching central bank annual meeting, the US dollar rebounds, and copper prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and then go long lightly after the price stabilizes. Long - term, copper is bullish. Shanghai copper focuses on the range [77500, 79500] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc is in a weak shock, testing the lower - level support [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The production of refined zinc in China has increased significantly. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has been rising, and smelter enthusiasm is high. However, due to the tariff increase on galvanized steel in Vietnam and the domestic off - season, the demand of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The spot market transaction is dull, and inventory has accumulated [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, due to the off - season and inventory accumulation, zinc is in a weak shock. Hold previous short positions, and some can take profit on dips. Pay attention to the support at the 22000 - level. Long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, so short on rebounds. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range [21800, 22400], and LME zinc focuses on [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices are falling back [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro - trade policies are still uncertain. The cost has decreased, and inventory has increased. The downstream start - up rate has rebounded slightly. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect the arrival volume in August, and the inventory accumulation speed of mainstream ports is expected to slow down. Domestic alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory has accumulated. Short - term, the supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, look for opportunities to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are running weakly, and stainless - steel prices are under pressure and falling back [17]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, the price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and NPI smelters are facing cost inversion and losses. Domestic refined nickel production has increased, and inventory has accumulated again. The production cut of stainless - steel has weakened, and the inventory reduction effect is weakening. The terminal market is still in the off - season, and stainless - steel still faces over - supply pressure [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless - steel. Pay attention to the downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with a slight reduction in positions, and closed down 1.79% [21]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals have not shown obvious improvement. The total inventory and production have decreased slightly, but the absolute quantity is still at a high level in recent years. After CATL confirmed the shutdown, the market expects the synchronous shutdown of other mines in Jiangxi. With the approaching peak season of terminal demand, downstream material factories start to stock up. The vulnerability of the inventory structure will amplify price elasticity. The main contract of lithium carbonate is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is still an expectation of supply speculation. Hold long positions in the range [86500 - 88000] [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Views - The short - term trend of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is bullish, but caution is needed when chasing long positions. Palm oil is generally bullish, and the strategy is to go long on dips. Cotton, jujube, and live pigs are cautiously bullish, with specific strategies for each variety [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Climate - neutral expectations indicate smooth soybean planting weather in the US. In China, soybeans and soybean meal are in the inventory - building stage, with the inventory - building speed in August expected to slow compared to July. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area but increased the yield per unit, resulting in a decrease in the final US soybean production and ending inventory. The Sino - US trade tariff is a key cost support for soybean meal. Recently, event speculation has cooled down. The short - term trend is bullishly volatile, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [1][4]. - As of August 15, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.926 million tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.804 million tons, a decrease of 301,600 tons from last week, a drop of 4.24%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from last week, an increase of 1.12%. The domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 8.35 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from August 8, a drop of 0.20%. The downstream has started to purchase spot goods to replenish positions. The future supply uncertainty makes feed mills' purchases cautious, but traders' acceptance is okay [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Globally, rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but there is a risk of a decrease in the yield per unit of Canadian rapeseed in the new year. In China, the rapeseed inventory of oil mills has decreased month - on - month, while the rapeseed meal inventory has increased month - on - month. The commercial inventory has decreased, but it is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. From August to October, rapeseed imports are significantly lower year - on - year, combined with a 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, anti - dumping deposits on rapeseed, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, which strongly supports the rapeseed meal price. However, the high inventory of granular meal at ports suppresses the market. The short - term trend is bullish, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [1][6]. - As of August 15, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 25,500 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from last week; the unexecuted contracts were 55,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from last week [5]. Palm Oil - The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are beneficial to the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. In July, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased but was lower than expected. The export data in the first 15 days of this month was good, boosting the market to a new high. The overall trend is to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation on the crude oil price [1][7]. Cotton - Internationally, the drought in the US cotton - growing area has expanded, and the non - drought rate has dropped significantly. The excellent - good rate of US cotton has increased. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 3.935 million tons this year. Domestically, Xinjiang's new cotton is mostly in the boll - splitting stage, and the production is expected to exceed 7.4 million tons. The import volume in July was 50,000 tons. The commercial inventory has decreased. The demand is improving, and the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking market is starting. The short - term focus is on the supply before the new cotton is listed. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and those with long positions at low levels should consider partial profit - taking [1][10][11]. Jujube - New - season jujube production is expected to be in the range of 500,000 - 580,000 tons in the 2025/26 season in southern Xinjiang, with a definite reduction in production but a smaller reduction than in 2023/24. The inventory removal speed has accelerated recently. Before November, the speculation around the purchase price is expected to be long, which is beneficial to the bullish trend. The strategy is to go long on dips [1][14]. Live Pigs - In the short term, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August has increased. There is supply pressure from second - fattening. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets from January to July has increased, indicating potential growth in slaughter volume in the second half of the year. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows remains high, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. The demand is gradually recovering. The short - term pressure on the spot market remains, but the far - month contracts may rise due to the capacity reduction of leading enterprises. It is not recommended to short - sell blindly in the short term. Consider going long on far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations [1][16][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Partially take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish consolidation [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease, supply surplus pressure rises, and oil prices tend to decline, but the downside space is narrowing. Focus on the break - even point of new US shale oil wells around $60. [1][3][4] - LPG: Low valuation and improved demand lead to a short - term rebound. However, due to the weak oil price at the cost end, partial profit - taking on long positions is recommended. [1][7][9] - L: Cost support is weak, but with the approaching peak season for shed films, demand support strengthens. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm and consider buying on dips or holding long LP spreads. [1][12][16] - PP: Cost support weakens, and the market continues to be bearish. Follow the cost for short - term weak oscillations and consider buying on dips. [1][19][22] - PVC: Calcium carbide prices fall, cost support weakens, and inventory accumulates. Hold short positions. [1][25][29] - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and crude oil prices are oscillating weakly. Take profit on short positions and look for high - short opportunities or sell call options. [1][31][33] - PTA: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there are still macro - policy positives. Take profit on short positions step - by - step, buy put options, and look for opportunities to buy on dips. [1][35][37] - Ethylene glycol: Supply - demand is slightly loose, but inventory is at a low level. Look for high - short opportunities and sell call options. [2][39][41] - Methanol: Supply - demand is loose, and port inventory accumulates. Take profit on 09 short positions step - by - step, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 after the decline of 09 slows down. [2][43][45] - Urea: Fundamentals are weak, but winter fertilizer use and exports are relatively good. Take profit on 09 short positions and look for low - buying opportunities for 01. [2][47][49] - Asphalt: Oil prices have room to compress, raw material supply is sufficient, and supply increases while demand decreases. Try short positions with a light position. [2] - Propylene: The absolute price is low. Buy on dips as the downstream is entering the seasonal peak season. [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.16%, Brent rising 1.14%, and SC falling 0.76%. [3] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts tend to ease, the support of the peak season for oil prices declines, and OPEC+ production increases, putting pressure on oil prices. [4] - **Fundamentals**: Azerbaijan's oil exports decreased in January - July. Global oil demand is expected to grow, and US commercial crude oil inventory increased in the week ending August 8. [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options. Focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC. [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 18, the PG main contract closed at 3,849 yuan/ton, down 0.67% month - on - month. [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil prices are weak, but the fundamentals are good, with high basis, improved supply - demand, and a short - term rebound. [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially take profit on long positions due to the possible drag of weak oil prices at the cost end. Focus on the range of [3830 - 3930] for PG. [10] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,334 yuan/ton (down 17 day - on - day). [13][14] - **Industry News**: PE prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand. [15] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weak, but demand support strengthens with the approaching peak season. Consider buying on dips or holding long LP spreads. [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. [17] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7,048 yuan/ton (down 36 day - on - day). [20][21] - **Industry News**: The market is expected to oscillate bearishly in the short term due to factors such as demand and supply. [21] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the market continues to be bearish. Follow the cost for short - term weak oscillations and consider buying on dips. [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5,054 yuan/ton (down 43 day - on - day). [26][27] - **Industry News**: The domestic PVC market continues to be weak due to factors such as supply, demand, and policies. [28] - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices fall, cost support weakens, and inventory accumulates. Hold short positions. [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions as the supply - demand pattern is conducive to inventory accumulation in August. [30] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PX spot price in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,688 yuan/ton. [31][32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and crude oil prices are oscillating weakly. Cautiously bearish. [33][34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and look for high - short opportunities or sell call options. Focus on the range of [6700 - 6810] for PX511. [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4,716 yuan/ton. [35][36] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there are still macro - policy positives. Cautiously bullish. [37][38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions step - by - step, buy put options, and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the range of [4720 - 4770] for TA01. [38] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,369 yuan/ton. [39][40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is slightly loose, but inventory is at a low level. Cautiously bearish. [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for high - short opportunities and sell call options. Focus on the range of [4370 - 4410] for EG01. [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,355 yuan/ton, and the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2,412 yuan/ton. [44] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas methanol supply increases, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. Bearish. [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions step - by - step, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 after the decline of 09 slows down. Focus on the range of [2368 - 2397] for MA01. [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the urea main contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton. [47][48] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases, domestic demand is weak, but exports are relatively good. Cautiously bullish. [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 due to the possible autumn fertilizer peak and export speculation. Focus on the range of [1735 - 1760] for UR01. [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For steel products such as rebar and hot-rolled coil, the suggestion is to hold off and observe [1][5]. - For iron ore, it is recommended to participate in the short - term [1][9]. - For coke and coking coal, the recommendation is to be cautiously bullish [1]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the suggestion is to be cautiously bearish and consider short - selling [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel products are showing obvious off - season characteristics and are fluctuating within a range. The supply - demand of rebar is expected to become looser, while the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil are relatively stable [3][4]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to the weak downstream. The ore price fluctuates weakly with the steel price [7][8]. - Coke spot has started the seventh round of price increases, and there may be a game with steel mills later. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and there is support at the bottom [11]. - For coking coal, domestic production is flat month - on - month, and Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly. The raw material demand is stable, and there is support at the bottom [14]. - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are tending to be looser, with supply pressure still existing [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - **Variety Analysis** - Rebar: Currently, blast furnace profits are good, and electric furnace profits have improved. Steel mills' production enthusiasm is high, with high pig iron production. The demand is weak, and construction steel transactions are hovering at a low level. The supply - demand is expected to be loose [1][4]. - Hot - rolled coil: The production, apparent demand, and inventory have all slightly increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [1][4]. - **Price Information** - Futures prices: Rebar 01 is at 3237, down 32; Rebar 05 is at 3280, down 34; Rebar 10 is at 3188, down 1. Hot - rolled coil 01 is at 3413, down 19; Hot - rolled coil 05 is at 3439; Hot - rolled coil 10 is at 3419, down 20 [2]. - Spot prices: Tangshan billet is at 3050, down 10. Rebar prices in different regions have declined, and hot - rolled coil prices in some regions have also decreased [2]. - **Operation Suggestions** - Rebar: Due to the remaining macro - sentiment, it is not advisable to chase short positions [5]. - Hot - rolled coil: After continuous futures price drops, the downward space may be limited, so it's better to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Variety Analysis** - Pig iron production has slightly increased. Overseas ore arrivals and shipments have both increased, and port and steel mill inventories have also increased. The ore price fluctuates weakly with the steel price due to weak economic data in July and the off - season characteristics of the finished product end [8]. - **Price Information** - Futures prices: Iron ore 01 is at 772, down 4; Iron ore 05 is at 750, down 6; Iron ore 09 is at 790, down 2 [6]. - Spot prices: PB powder is at 770, down 2; Yangdi powder is at a certain price with a decline; BRBF powder is at 810, unchanged [6]. - **Operation Suggestions** - Short - term participation is recommended [9]. 3.3 Coke - **Variety Analysis** - Coke spot has started the seventh round of price increases, and there may be a game with steel mills later. Coke enterprise profits have improved and are generally positive. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and production and inventory are relatively stable [11]. - **Price and Data Information** - Futures prices: Coke 1 - month contract is at 1702.0, down 27.5; Coke 5 - month contract is at 1796.0, down 35.5; Coke 9 - month contract is at 1634.0, down 19.0 [10]. - Spot prices: Lvliang quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke ex - factory price is 1280, unchanged; Rizhao Port first - grade metallurgical coke FOB price is 1520, unchanged [10]. - Weekly data: The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises is 74.3%, up 0.3; 247 steel mills' daily average pig iron production is 240.7, up 0.3 [10]. - **Operation Suggestions** - Cautiously bullish [12]. 3.4 Coking Coal - **Variety Analysis** - Domestic coking coal production is flat month - on - month, and Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly. The total mine inventory has stopped decreasing, and the transfer speed to downstream has slowed down. The raw material demand is stable [14]. - **Price and Data Information** - Futures prices: Coking coal 1 - month contract is at 1187.5, down 42.5; Coking coal 5 - month contract is at 1233.0, down 53.0; Coking coal 9 - month contract is at 1035.0, down 45.5 [13]. - Spot prices: Lvliang main coking coal price is 1430, unchanged; Gujiao main coking coal price is 1280, unchanged [13]. - Weekly data: The sample coal washing plant's operating rate is 61.5, down 0.8; Sample coking plants' daily average coke production is 52.3, up 0.3 [13]. - **Operation Suggestions** - Cautiously bullish [15]. 3.5 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Variety Analysis** - Silicomanganese: The fundamentals are tending to be loose. Although there is short - term demand resilience, the overall inventory level is still high. The shipping volume of the three major countries has increased significantly, and the port inventory is basically the same as last week [18]. - Ferrosilicon: The fundamentals are tending to be loose, the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased but is still at a high level, and the warehouse receipts have continued to increase, with obvious overall supply pressure [18]. - **Price Information** - Futures prices: Manganese silicon 01 is at 6120, up 6; Manganese silicon 05 is at 6144, down 6; Manganese silicon 09 is at 6026, unchanged. Ferrosilicon 01 is at 5866, down 46; Ferrosilicon 05 is at 5990, down 48; Ferrosilicon 09 is at 5710, down 44 [17]. - Spot prices: Silicomanganese 6517 prices in different regions have different changes; Ferrosilicon 72 prices in different regions have some changes [17]. - **Operation Suggestions** - Silicomanganese: Short - selling participation or waiting and seeing is advisable due to the remaining market sentiment and short - term cost support [19]. - Ferrosilicon: Short - selling participation is recommended, and continue to pay attention to the performance of coking coal and coke [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, recommended to buy on dips and hold for the long - term [1] - Silver: Bullish, recommended to buy on rebounds and hold for the long - term [1] - Copper: Bullish, recommended to buy on dips and hold for the long - term [1] - Zinc: Bearish, recommended to hold short positions in the short - term and sell on rallies in the long - term [1] - Lead: Bearish, price under short - term pressure [1] - Tin: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bearish, price under short - term pressure [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price under short - term pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the geopolitical situation is seeking a truce, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. The market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, with expectations that Fed Chairman Powell may take a hawkish stance, which will suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and cause the US dollar to rebound. This has an impact on the prices of precious metals and base metals. In the long - term, factors such as global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern will support the prices of precious metals, especially gold. For base metals, supply - demand relationships, strategic resource attributes, and industry development trends will affect their price trends [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Global parties are seeking a cease - fire in geopolitical conflicts, and the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is highly anticipated. Gold and silver are trading in a narrow range [2] - **Basic Logic**: The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Different institutions have different expectations for his stance. There are also signs of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Hamas situation. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, but in the long - term, it may be in a long - term bull market [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver's short - term trading range is between 9150 - 9400, and it is recommended to go long in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite meeting [4] Copper - **Market Review**: The fluctuation of Shanghai copper has converged, and it closed with a doji star after narrow - range trading [6] - **Industry Logic**: Recently, there have been disruptions in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. The output of electrolytic copper in July increased, but it may decline marginally in August - September due to smelting maintenance. It is currently the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up with the arrival of the peak season. The overall copper inventory overseas has increased slightly, and the domestic social inventory has also risen slightly. The annual copper supply - demand is in a tight balance [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the global central bank annual meeting approaches, the US dollar index has rebounded, and copper prices are under pressure. It is recommended to buy copper on dips. Enterprises can wait for high - level opportunities to sell and hedge to lock in reasonable profits. In the long - term, copper is a strategic resource in the Sino - US game, and there is a long - term bullish outlook. The attention range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 80000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has been oscillating weakly, testing the support of the lower level [9] - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The output of refined zinc in China in July and August increased. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has risen, and smelter enthusiasm has increased. On the demand side, due to factors such as Vietnam's tariff increase on galvanized steel and the domestic consumption off - season, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The spot market trading is dull, and domestic zinc inventories have increased [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, due to the off - season of demand and inventory accumulation, zinc is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions and take partial profits on dips. In the long - term, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, wait for opportunities to sell on rallies. The attention range for Shanghai zinc is [22000, 22600] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices have declined under pressure, and alumina has also shown a downward trend [12] - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are still uncertainties in overseas macro - trade policies. The cost has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The demand side has seen a slight increase in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect the arrival volume in August, and domestic alumina plants have increased their loads. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has accumulated, and the short - term supply - demand is expected to be loose [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, paying attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory during the off - season. The operating range of the main contract is [20000 - 20900] [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have been running weakly, and stainless steel has been under pressure [16] - **Industry Logic**: Overseas macro - environment is still uncertain. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and NPI smelters are facing cost inversion. The output of refined nickel in China has increased, and the inventory has accumulated during the off - season. For stainless steel, the effect of production cuts is weakening, and there is still over - supply pressure during the off - season [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the change of downstream inventory. The operating range of the main nickel contract is [120000 - 123000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened higher and moved higher, with increased positions throughout the day, rising more than 4% [20] - **Industry Logic**: Although the overall inventory and output have decreased slightly, the absolute quantity is still at a high level in recent years. After CATL confirmed production suspension, the market expects synchronous production suspension of other mines in Jiangxi. With the arrival of the peak demand season, downstream material factories have started the stocking cycle. The inventory structure will amplify price elasticity. The main contract of lithium carbonate is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply speculation expectation still exists, and long positions should be held in the range of [88500 - 91000] [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil)**: Cautiously Bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term Long Participation [1][8][9] - **Coke**: Cautiously Bullish [1][11][12] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously Bullish [1][14][15] - **Ferroalloys (including Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously Bearish [1][18][19] Core Views - **Rebar**: Currently, blast furnace profits are still good, and electric furnace profits have improved. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce, with high hot metal output. The demand side remains weak, and construction steel transactions are hovering at a low level. However, the production restriction policies during the military parade have not been fully implemented, which continues to support the market's expectation of supply-side contraction. The raw material side also brings disturbances. In the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and currently, it is in a neutral position. Short-term market trends are prone to fluctuations [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The output and apparent demand of hot-rolled coils have decreased month-on-month, and inventories have slightly increased. The fundamentals are relatively stable. The export profit of hot-rolled coils has significantly declined, and exports may be affected in the future. Strong macro expectations provide support at the bottom, and the production restriction expectations during the military parade support the market. Currently, it is in a neutral position, and short-term market trends may fluctuate [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Fundamentally, hot metal output has slightly increased. The arrivals and shipments of foreign ores have both decreased, while port and steel mill inventories have increased simultaneously. Steel mill restocking has driven the price to be firm in the short term. Under the dominance of fundamentals, the ore price is strong [1][8][9]. - **Coke**: Coke spot prices have increased for six consecutive rounds, and coke enterprise profits continue to improve. Some regions have announced production restriction policies during the military parade, and the supply side may contract to some extent in the future. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are generally balanced, with relatively stable output and inventory. In the medium term, the raw material side may still be supported by news of production restrictions and cutbacks, maintaining a strong trend. In the short term, the current price is relatively high, and the exchange has introduced new trading restrictions on coking coal, so there may be a short-term correction. It is advisable to wait and see [1][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: In terms of supply and demand, the domestic coking coal output has remained flat month-on-month, with an absolute level lower than that of the same period last year. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly recently. The total inventory at the mine end has stopped decreasing month-on-month, and the transfer speed to downstream has slowed down. The absolute level of hot metal output is still high, and the raw material demand is relatively stable. Recently, news of coal mine production restrictions still supports the market, and the medium-term trend may remain strong. However, the exchange has restricted the trading limit of the 01 contract and increased the intraday speculative handling fee, which may dampen market sentiment. In the short term, pay attention to the risk of market fluctuations and it is advisable to wait and see [1][14][15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser. With the concentrated release of a new round of demand, short-term demand resilience remains. The total on-balance-sheet inventory continues to decline, but the absolute level is still high. Currently, the main contract has gradually shifted to the 01 contract. Market sentiment has declined but still has some momentum. In the short term, the cost side has relatively strong support. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser. Enterprise inventories have slightly decreased, but the absolute level is still high. Warehouse receipts have continued to increase compared to last week, and the overall supply pressure is obvious. Currently, the main contract has switched to the 2511 contract. Short-term market sentiment still has some momentum. Continue to pay attention to the performance of coking coal and coke. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Currently, blast furnace and electric furnace profits are good, and steel mills are highly motivated to produce. The demand side is weak, but production restriction expectations support the market. In the medium term, it will fluctuate within a range, and short-term trends are prone to fluctuations [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Output and apparent demand have decreased, and inventories have slightly increased. Export profits have declined, but macro and production restriction expectations support the market. Currently, it is in a neutral position, and short-term trends may fluctuate [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Fundamentally, hot metal output has increased slightly, foreign ore arrivals and shipments have decreased, and inventories have increased. Steel mill restocking has driven the price to be firm, and the ore price is strong [1][8][9]. Coke - Spot prices have increased for six consecutive rounds, and coke enterprise profits have improved. Some regions have announced production restriction policies, and the supply side may contract. Currently, supply and demand are balanced, and in the medium term, it will maintain a strong trend. In the short term, there may be a correction due to high prices and trading restrictions [1][11][12]. Coking Coal - Domestic output is flat, Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased, and mine end inventory transfer has slowed down. Raw material demand is stable, and production restriction news supports the market. In the medium term, it will remain strong, but short-term market sentiment may be dampened by trading restrictions [1][14][15]. Ferrosilicon - Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser, enterprise inventories are high, and supply pressure is obvious. The main contract has switched, and short-term market sentiment still has some momentum. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19]. Manganese Silicon - Fundamentally, the situation is becoming looser, demand has some resilience, and inventory is declining but still high. The main contract has shifted, and short-term cost support is strong. It is advisable to participate in short positions or wait and see [1][18][19].