Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range. Despite a reduced probability of interest rate cuts in the short term, long - term factors such as debt ceiling expansion, monetary easing, and global order reshaping support a long - term bullish view [1][2]. - Silver is predicted to have a strong - level range - bound movement. It is influenced by basic metals and gold price sentiment, with a relatively strong support around 8700 [1]. - Copper is recommended to hold long positions partially, with a long - term bullish outlook. However, short - term high - level risks should be watched out for [1][4][5]. - Zinc is expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation. In the long run, supply is increasing while demand is weakening, so short - selling opportunities on rallies should be grasped [1][7][8]. - Lead is likely to rebound in the short term due to supply and demand factors [1]. - Tin is expected to rebound and then decline because of supply disruptions and the entry of the consumption off - season [1]. - Aluminum is predicted to face pressure on its short - term rebound. Although there is short - term support from inventory reduction, the off - season and inventory build - up expectations may limit the upside [1][10][11]. - Nickel is expected to rebound in the short term, but it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies, paying attention to inventory changes [1][12][13]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to have a short - term high - level range - bound movement, with a long - term supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to the 65,000 resistance level [1][14][15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Gold - **Market Review**: U.S. non - farm payrolls were unexpectedly positive, and non - manufacturing PMI improved, leading to a reduced probability of interest rate cuts and a price adjustment for gold [2]. - **Industry Logic**: The increase in non - farm payrolls reduced the probability of interest rate cuts. The "Great Beauty Act" is about to be passed. Long - term factors such as global order reshaping and fiscal - monetary double - easing support a long - term bullish view for gold [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Although there is short - term adjustment, the U.S. dollar is in a medium - term weakening trend. Gold has strong support around 760, and a long - term bullish view remains. Consider long - term investment opportunities [3]. Silver - **Market Review**: Supported by U.S. large - scale fiscal easing, silver shows an upward sentiment and range - bound movement, with strong support around 8700 [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support level and trade within the range [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is trading in a high - level range [4]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and copper concentrate processing TC has dropped. Some mines in Peru are facing transportation disruptions. COMEX copper is draining global copper inventories, and LME copper inventory is slightly replenished. Although it is the consumption off - season, green copper demand in power and new - energy vehicles is strong [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions partially and take profits on rallies. Be cautious of short - term high - level risks. In the long run, copper is bullish. Focus on the range of [79,000, 82,000] for Shanghai copper and [9,900, 11,000] dollars/ton for London copper [5]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc has a small rebound and narrow - range fluctuation [7]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. A large - scale zinc smelter in Peru is on strike, but overall zinc ore supply is at a high level, and TC is rebounding. Domestic inventory is slightly increasing, and downstream demand is weak [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the U.S. dollar rebounding and commodity market sentiment easing, zinc is in a narrow - range fluctuation. In the long run, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be grasped. Focus on the range of [22,000, 22,600] for Shanghai zinc and [2,700, 2,800] dollars/ton for London zinc [8][9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices have a short - term rebound, while alumina faces pressure on its rebound [10]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro sentiment has improved, and domestic policies are favorable. However, it is the off - season, and inventory build - up is emerging. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports are high, and domestic production capacity is stable, with a relatively loose supply situation [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities on rallies for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20,000 - 20,800]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have rebounded, and stainless steel also shows a rebound trend [12]. - **Industry Logic**: For nickel, overseas macro environment has improved, but cost support has weakened, and domestic supply pressure is significant. For stainless steel, production cuts are weak, and the off - season and high - inventory pressure continue [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120,000 - 125,000] [13]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 increased in positions and rose, with the late - session gains narrowing [14]. - **Industry Logic**: The price was boosted by the news of lithium salt plant production cuts, but only one smelter was actually under maintenance. There are large differences in downstream production schedules. In the long run, the supply is in surplus, and inventory is continuously reaching new highs [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term high - level range - bound movement, pay attention to the 65,000 resistance level [63,000 - 64,500] [15].

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 反弹偏空 地缘担忧再起，油价反弹，关注周末 OPEC+会议。消息称伊朗暂停与国 际原子能机构合作，地缘担忧再起，短期油价反弹；从供需基本面看， OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消 费旺季，油价下方有一定支撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较 大。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【495-515】 LPG 反弹 油价企稳，库存下降，液化气反弹。地缘担忧再起，成本端油价企稳反弹； 下游化工需求有所下降，PDH 开工回落；库存端利好，厂内和港口库存均 上升。策略：短线反弹，但上方受限，反弹偏空。PG【4200-4300】 L 空头反弹 现货涨价，华北基差为-64（环比+44），近期装置检修加强，新装置暂未 释放，供给压力边际缓解。LD、HD 进口窗口打开。需求淡季，下游刚需 拿货为主，关注后续库存去化力度。7-8 月仍有山东新时代、裕龙石化等 合计 205 万吨新装置计划投产，中长期预期偏弱。策略：短期反弹思路对 待。L【7200-7400】 PP 空头反弹 出口毛利转正，低价成交略有放量，成本支撑好转，MTO 盘面利润同期 ...

1 豆粕：缺乏明确指引 短线震荡整理 | 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2958 | 2944 | 14 | 0. 48% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 2926. 86 | 2922. 86 | 4 | 0. 14% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 2840 | 2820 | 20 | 0. 71% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 間趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3337.5 | 3337.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2193. 75 | 2181.25 | 12.5 | 0. 57% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3775 | 3775 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1333. 33 | 1333 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has strengthened, and it is expected to operate strongly in the short term. For rebar, the reduction of over - capacity and anti - involution drive the upward movement of the black series, and the market sentiment turns positive. The fundamentals of steel have little change, with high profitability of steel mills, high hot metal production, increasing rebar output, stable apparent demand, good overall export demand for steel, and limited supply - demand contradictions. For hot - rolled coils, production has increased slightly, apparent demand has decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory has changed little, supply - demand is relatively balanced, export demand remains, and the upward movement is mainly driven by improved sentiment [1][3][4]. - For iron ore, although the supply - demand structure has weakened month - on - month, the ore price remains firm. The demand for iron ore is still supported by steel enterprises' profits, and the supply is difficult to increase due to the end of shipping volume rush and port maintenance [1][6][8]. - For coke, the supply - demand changes are small, and it may return to a volatile state. The output of independent coking enterprises has decreased recently, but the output of steel mills' coking enterprises is still high. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the absolute level is high. The increase in hot metal production guarantees the demand for raw materials [1][11][12]. - For coking coal, the supply tends to increase, and it may return to a volatile state. The domestic coking coal production has decreased slightly, but some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production in July. The upstream inventory is still at a high absolute level, and the spot trading has improved [1][15][16]. - For ferroalloys, the market sentiment has improved, and the prices are expected to operate strongly. For ferromanganese, the price of manganese ore at ports is expected to be strong in the short term, but the actual demand may decline due to the off - season. For ferrosilicon, there are both production cuts and restarts in production areas, and the overall operating rate remains low, with relatively high factory inventory [1][18][19]. Summary by Variety Rebar - **Price Information**: Futures prices of rebar01, rebar05, and rebar10 are 3090, 3099, and 3076 respectively, with price increases of 11, 12, and 11. Spot prices in different regions range from 3110 - 3230, with some regions having price increases [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: Steel mills' profitability is high, hot metal production is high, rebar output continues to increase, apparent demand is basically flat, and overall export demand for steel is good, with limited supply - demand contradictions [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the context of basis repair and improved expectations, the market will operate strongly in the short term, with a price range of [3060, 3100] [1][5]. Hot - rolled Coil - **Price Information**: Futures prices of hot - rolled coil01, hot - rolled coil05, and hot - rolled coil10 are 3136, 3134, and 3208 respectively, with price increases of 8, 5, and 17. Spot prices in different regions range from 3140 - 3370, with some regions having price increases [2]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: Production has increased slightly, apparent demand has decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory has changed little, supply - demand is relatively balanced, and export demand remains [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The upward movement is mainly driven by improved sentiment, and it may perform strongly in the short term, with a price range of [3200, 3240] [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Futures prices of iron ore01, iron ore05, and iron ore09 are 707, 751, and 733 respectively, with price increases of 11, 10, and 11. Spot prices of different iron ore powders range from 620 - 757, with price increases of 10 [6]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The demand for iron ore is still supported by steel enterprises' profits, but the supply is difficult to increase due to the end of shipping volume rush and port maintenance [1][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Participate in the market within the range in the short term, with a price range of [725, 760] [1][9]. Coke - **Price Information**: Futures prices of coke01, coke05, and coke09 are 1491.0, 1535.0, and 1445.5 respectively, with price increases of 11.5, 28.0, and 3.5. Spot prices in different regions range from 980 - 1220, with some regions having price increases [11]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The output of independent coking enterprises has decreased recently, but the output of steel mills' coking enterprises is still high. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the absolute level is high. The increase in hot metal production guarantees the demand for raw materials [1][12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It may return to a volatile state, with a price range of [1320, 1455] [1][13]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Futures prices of coking coal01, coking coal05, and coking coal09 are 914.0, 939.0, and 856.0 respectively, with price increases of 22.5, 23.5, and 12.5. Spot prices in different regions range from 934 - 1210, with no price changes [15]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The domestic coking coal production has decreased slightly, but some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production in July. The upstream inventory is still at a high absolute level, and the spot trading has improved [1][16]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It may return to a volatile state, with a price range of [845, 875] [1][17]. Manganese Silicon (Ferromanganese) - **Price Information**: Futures prices of manganese silicon01, manganese silicon05, and manganese silicon09 are 5662, 5655, and 5624 respectively, with price decreases of 12, 14, and 18. Spot prices in different regions range from 5500 - 5550, with some regions having price increases [18]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: High - grade ore sources are relatively concentrated, and miners' price - holding sentiment is strong. There are both production cuts and restarts in production areas, and the operating rate in Yunnan has increased significantly. The actual demand may decline due to the off - season [1][19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market sentiment has improved, and the price may operate strongly in the short term, with a price range of [5610, 5810] [1][20]. Silicon Iron (Ferrosilicon) - **Price Information**: Futures prices of silicon iron01, silicon iron05, and silicon iron09 are 5246, 5280, and 5270 respectively, with price decreases of 82, 82, and 74. Spot prices in different regions range from 5200 - 5250, with some regions having price increases [18]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: There are both production cuts and restarts in production areas, and the overall operating rate remains low, with relatively high factory inventory [1][19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The market sentiment has improved, and the price may operate strongly in the short term, with a price range of [5295, 5485] [1][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is volatile consolidation, while rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs are expected to have short - term rebounds. However, the long - term outlook for live pigs is still bearish, with prices likely to grind at the bottom under pressure [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - From the CPC monthly outlook, the soybean planting weather in the US in July is generally favorable, and the South American harvest is basically settled. In China, ports and oil mills are in the inventory accumulation phase, and feed enterprises' inventory replenishment has recovered significantly. The June USDA report is neutral, with a slight decrease in US soybean planting area and limited impact on production reduction. The market fluctuates around the fundamentals, and it is expected to oscillate below the 10 - day moving average in 3 - 5 days. The main contract range is [2920, 2970] [1][4]. - The latest futures price of the main contract is 2944 yuan/ton, down 0.57% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2922.86 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 207.6608 yuan/ton, down 2.57 yuan from the previous day [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Currently, the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills is not under pressure, but the high commercial rapeseed meal inventory is bearish for the July contract. From June to August, rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. Canada's June rapeseed planting area is lower than expected, but the termination of US - Canada trade negotiations is a greater negative factor. Short - selling should be cautious due to low imports and high tariffs. The main contract range is [2550, 2600] [1][5]. - As of July 1, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions decreased by 1.41 tons from the previous week. In the domestic market, the oversupply of soybean meal has squeezed the market share of rapeseed meal [5]. Palm Oil - China's palm oil commercial inventory is low, and imports have improved but are still lower than last year in the second half. The Southeast Asian palm oil inventory accumulation cycle has started, with a downward - moving oscillation center. However, India's good import prospects in June, the reduction of import tariffs since May 30, and the promotion of the B20 policy are positive factors. Before the US biodiesel policy is determined, short - selling is cautious. It is expected to remain below the previous high this week. The main contract range is [8360, 8530] [1][8]. - As of June 27, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory increased by 23.57% week - on - week and 25.67% year - on - year. Malaysia's June palm oil exports increased by 4.52% month - on - month, and India's June palm oil imports surged 61% month - on - month [7]. Cotton - In the international market, the sowing in the US main cotton - producing areas is nearly finished, with an improvement in the excellent - good rate and drought conditions. The USDA's planting intention is higher than expected, and the ICE market is expected to be weak in the short term. In China, new cotton is growing well, and the actual sown area is 5% higher than expected. The high - temperature impact in Xinjiang is limited and is gradually easing. The de - stocking of domestic cotton is fast, but downstream orders are weak after a short - term rebound. The futures price is expected to rebound under pressure in the short term. The main contract range is [13750, 13900] [1][12]. - The main contract CF2509 closed at 13805 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The domestic spot price dropped 0.33% to 15160 yuan/ton. The US cotton sowing progress is 95%, with a planting area of 1010 million acres, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and an excellent - good rate of 51%. India's sown area increased 7% year - on - year [10]. Jujube - The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and the actual fruit - setting situation in the producing areas shows no obvious signs of significant yield reduction. The old - crop inventory is at a historical high, and the inventory de - stocking is slow. The demand is expected to weaken in the quarter, with no obvious increase recently. The short - term futures price is expected to rebound under pressure, and attention should be paid to the potential fluctuations in the second - half of the month due to the final yield determination. The main contract range is [10850, 11450] [1][14]. - The main contract CJ2601 closed at 11055 yuan/ton, up 1.98%. The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 8 tons week - on - week and is higher than the same period last year [14]. Live Pigs - The short - term rebound is due to the出栏 rhythm of leading enterprises and the entry of second - fattening, which has temporarily alleviated the supply pressure. However, the production capacity has not been cleared, and the price increase may not be sustainable. In the long run, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is likely to grind at the bottom under pressure. It is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy of short - selling on rallies for 2025 contracts. The main contract range is [14200, 14500] [1][17]. - The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14340 yuan/ton, up 3.20%. The domestic live pig spot price increased 0.07% to 15090 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased, and the inventory of breeding sows in May was 4042 million, a 0.1% month - on - month increase [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the provided reports. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level oscillations. The US debt ceiling is about to expand, and employment data increases the expectation of a US interest rate cut. Although tariff and geopolitical risks have decreased, medium - and long - term uncertainties remain, and the long - term global order is being reshaped, making gold a strategic allocation [1]. - Silver will have range - bound oscillations. Base metals are supported by future economic policy stimuli. The gold - silver ratio has returned to the normal range, and the contract price around 8700 should be monitored. Silver is highly elastic and is greatly affected by base metals and gold price sentiment, so position control is necessary [1]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in copper. Overseas, the US dollar continues to weaken, and there is speculation about domestic anti - involution supply - side reform 3.0. There are disruptions in Peruvian copper mines. It is advisable to hold previous long copper positions, and some can be liquidated at high prices. There is a long - term bullish view on copper [1][9]. - Zinc will have narrow - range oscillations. Macro and sector sentiments are positive, zinc concentrate processing fees are recovering, domestic zinc inventories are slightly increasing, and it is the domestic consumption off - season with weakening demand. In the long run, zinc supply will increase while demand will be weak, so opportunities to short at high prices should be grasped [1][11]. - Carbonate lithium will have a rebound. It is mainly driven by speculation on macro - policy expectations and emotional trading. There are large differences in the market regarding downstream production schedules. Production has reached a 5 - year high, and total inventory continues to hit new highs. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 65,000 [2]. - Lead will have a rebound. After the maintenance of primary lead smelting enterprises, production has resumed, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises have been repaired. There is an expected increase in supply in July, while the downstream battery consumption is not optimistic, leading to a short - term rebound in lead prices [3]. - Tin's rebound is under pressure. The supply of Burmese tin mines has not resumed, transportation is difficult during the rainy season, and the resumption of production in the Wa State mining area has stalled. Tin consumption in the terminal field has entered the off - season, resulting in a short - term rebound and then decline in tin prices [3]. - Aluminum will have a rebound. The domestic policy environment is favorable, and the continuous reduction of aluminum ingot social inventory in June provides short - term support. However, the terminal is gradually entering the off - season, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation downstream, leading to a short - term rebound in aluminum prices [3]. - Nickel will stabilize. There are favorable policies for the downstream stainless - steel industry, and domestic refined nickel inventories have slightly decreased. However, terminal consumption is weakening in the off - season, and there is still an expected pressure of inventory accumulation in stainless - steel, resulting in a short - term stabilization of nickel prices at a low level [3]. - Industrial silicon will have a rebound. Leading manufacturers have cut production, combined with speculation on macro - policy expectations, causing the contract price to increase with higher trading volume. In the short term, the fundamentals have not significantly improved, and total inventory remains high. The main contract is strongly trending, waiting for contradictions to accumulate [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Market Condition**: The US debt ceiling expansion and weak employment data increase the expectation of a US interest rate cut. Although tariff and geopolitical risks have decreased, long - term uncertainties remain, and the long - term global order is being reshaped [1][5]. - **Data Support**: ADP data shows that the number of private - sector employees in the US decreased by 33,000 in June, the first negative growth since March 2023. Regarding the upcoming non - farm data, UBS expects only 100,000 new jobs, and Citigroup expects 85,000 new jobs. If the data is extremely weak, the probability of a Fed interest rate cut in July will increase significantly [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Although short - term risk events have subsided, the US dollar is in a medium - term weakening trend, which boosts the gold price. The support around 760 is strong, and the long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. Consider making long - term investments [6]. Silver - **Market Condition**: Base metals are supported by future economic policy stimuli. The gold - silver ratio has returned to the normal range, and silver is greatly affected by base metals and gold price sentiment [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Silver is range - bound, and the support around 8700 is strong [6]. Copper - **Market Condition**: Overseas, the US dollar is weakening, and there are disruptions in Peruvian copper mines. Domestically, there is speculation about anti - involution supply - side reform 3.0. The copper market shows a combination of macro and micro factors [8][9]. - **Data Support**: The processing TC of copper concentrates has dropped to - 43.57 US dollars/ton. MMG and Hudbay Minerals' Peruvian mines are blocked, disrupting copper concentrate transportation. COMEX copper is continuously draining global copper inventories, and LME spot premiums have decreased month - on - month [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold previous long copper positions, and some can be liquidated at high prices. Be vigilant about the risk of a high - level decline in copper prices. In the long term, copper is bullish. The short - term focus range for SHFE copper is [79,000, 82,000], and for LME copper is [9,900, 11,000] US dollars/ton [9]. Zinc - **Market Condition**: Macro and sector sentiments are positive, zinc concentrate processing fees are recovering, domestic zinc inventories are slightly increasing, and it is the domestic consumption off - season with weakening demand [10][11]. - **Data Support**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Recently, there was a strike at a large zinc smelter in Peru. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee is 3800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee is 65 US dollars/dry ton. Domestic zinc inventories have slightly increased, and the galvanizing enterprise operating rate is 56.2%, lower than the same period in previous years [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is oscillating and may test the lower moving - average support. Pay attention to the 22,000 level. In the long run, short - selling opportunities at high prices should be grasped. The focus range for SHFE zinc is [22,000, 22,600], and for LME zinc is [2,700, 2,850] US dollars/ton [11][12]. Aluminum - **Market Condition**: The domestic policy is favorable, but the terminal is entering the off - season, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation downstream. The alumina market is relatively loose in the short term [13][14]. - **Data Support**: In June, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories were 468,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week. Domestic mainstream consumption - area aluminum - rod inventories were 147,500 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week. From January to May, China's cumulative import of bauxite was about 85.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. In June, the domestic alumina operating capacity increased by 3.14% month - on - month [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities during the rebound for SHFE aluminum, pay attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventories, and the main operating range is [20,000 - 20,800]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [14]. Nickel - **Market Condition**: Overseas macro - environment has improved. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore has decreased. The domestic nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the stainless - steel industry also faces over - supply pressure [15][16]. - **Data Support**: In June, the domestic pure - nickel social inventory was about 39,300 tons, and it has increased again week - on - week. The total inventory of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan has increased to 1,000,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.18%, and the social inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks and exceeded 1 million tons [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - selling opportunities during the rebound for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range for nickel is [119,000 - 123,000] [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Condition**: There are strong policy expectations, but the fundamentals remain in an oversupply situation. The market has large differences in downstream production schedules [17][18]. - **Data Support**: The weekly production of carbonate lithium has reached 17,598 tons, and the weekly inventory is 136,837 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous period [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, it will have high - level oscillations. Pay attention to the resistance at 65,000, and the focus range is [62,500 - 64,500] [2][18]. Lead - **Market Condition**: After the maintenance of primary lead smelting enterprises, production has resumed, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises have been repaired. Downstream battery consumption is not optimistic [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The lead price will have a short - term rebound, and the focus range is [16,800 - 17,500] [3]. Tin - **Market Condition**: The supply of Burmese tin mines has not resumed, and transportation is difficult during the rainy season. Tin consumption in the terminal field has entered the off - season [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The tin price will have a short - term rebound and then decline, and the focus range is [265,000 - 272,000] [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Condition**: Leading manufacturers have cut production, combined with speculation on macro - policy expectations. In the short term, the fundamentals have not significantly improved, and total inventory remains high [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The main contract is strongly trending, waiting for contradictions to accumulate, and the focus range is [8,000 - 8,380] [3].

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 反弹偏空 地缘担忧再起，油价反弹。消息称伊朗暂停与国际原子能机构合作，地缘 担忧再起，短期油价反弹；从供需基本面看，OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增 产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消费旺季，油价下方有一定支 撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大。策略：轻仓试空并购买 看涨期权保护。SC【495-515】 LPG 反弹偏空 油价企稳叠加化工利润改善，液化气反弹。油价重回基本面定价，短线企 稳；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端 中性偏空，厂库和港口库存均有所上升。策略：反弹偏空，可轻仓试空。 PG【4150-4300】 L 空头盘整 社会库存转为累库，现货继续下跌。华北基差为-108（环比-59），LD、 HD 进口窗口打开。装置重启增多，预计本周产量增加至 60.7 万吨。近期 上中游库存显著下滑，需求淡季，下游刚需拿货为主，关注后续库存去化 力度。7-8 月仍有山东新时代、裕龙石化等合计 205 万吨新装置计划投产， 中长期预期偏弱。策略：反弹偏空。L【7200-7400】 PP 空头盘整 下游订单持续偏弱，基差走弱，出 ...

| 品种 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 去产能反内卷带动黑色系上行，市场情绪转强。钢材基本面变化不大，钢 短期偏强 | | | 厂盈利水平较高，铁水产量仍然高企，螺纹产量继续上升，表观需求基本 | | | 持平，钢材整体出口需求仍然较好，供需矛盾比较有限。基差修复背景叠 | | | 加预期改善，行情短期偏强运行。【3040，3080】 | | 热卷 | 热卷产量小幅上升，表观需求环比略降，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平 短期偏强 | | | 衡，出口需求仍在，矛盾有限。基本面变化不大，上行主要受情绪改善推 | | | 动，短期表现或偏强。【3060，3200】 | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转增，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持高位。 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 供给端发货冲量结束，后期外端港口有检修，发货难增。整体供需结构环 | | | 比继续改善，矿价偏强运行。观点：短期区间参与【720，745】 | | 焦炭 | 独立焦企产量近期有所回落，但钢厂焦企产量仍然较高。总库存环比下降， 震荡 | | | 绝对水平偏高。铁水产量环比上升，对原料需求保障，供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish consolidation [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Cautiously long at low levels [1] - PTA/PR: Short on rallies [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Interval correction [2] - Soda ash: Bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Interval rebound [2] - Methanol: Short on rallies [2] - Urea: Short on rallies [2] - Asphalt: Weak [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: In the medium - long term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short term, with the decline of geopolitical risks, the oil price returns to fundamental pricing, and the short - term trend is weakly volatile. [4][5] - LPG: After the geopolitical premium of oil prices is squeezed out, the cost side is weak, and the medium - long - term valuation is high. Technically, the short - term trend is weak. [8][9] - L: In the short term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. In the medium - long term, new devices are planned to be put into production, and the expectation is weak. [11] - PP: In the short term, the market is in a weak stalemate. In the medium - long term, the supply is under pressure, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export profit is negative. [14] - PVC: The spot supply - demand fundamentals are poor, and the new devices are planned to be put into production in the future. The supply side is under pressure. [17] - PX: The supply - demand is expected to increase, the inventory is being depleted but still high overall. The fundamentals are tight, and it fluctuates with the cost recently. [19] - PTA: The supply pressure is expected to increase, the downstream demand is expected to weaken, the inventory is being depleted, and the fundamentals are tight but the expectation is loose. [22] - Ethylene glycol: The device load increases, the arrival is expected to rebound, the demand is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose. [25] - Glass: The domestic macro data improves, but the medium - term demand shrinkage has not been alleviated, and the rebound is limited. The valuation is low. [28] - Soda ash: The supply is marginally improved, the rigid demand is insufficient, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost center moves down in the medium - long term. [31] - Caustic soda: The supply is at a high level, the demand support is insufficient, and there is an expectation of inventory depletion during the maintenance period. [34] - Methanol: The domestic device starts at a high load, the arrival in July may be less than expected, the demand feedback is negative, and the social inventory accumulates slightly. [36] - Urea: The short - term supply pressure is large, the domestic demand is weak, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. [2] - Asphalt: The cost side weakens, the supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is affected by the weather. [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated within a range, with WTI up 0.52%, Brent up 0.55%, and SC up 0.18%. [3] - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is that the oil price returns to fundamental pricing, and OPEC+ may continue to increase production in August. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia's exports and Guyana's production increase. On the demand side, the global crude oil demand growth rate decreases. In terms of inventory, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreases, and the strategic reserve increases. [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the supply is excessive, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short term, it is weakly volatile. Lightly short and buy call options for protection. SC focuses on [490 - 505]. [5] LPG - **Market Review**: On July 1, the PG main contract closed at 4,203 yuan/ton, down 0.76% month - on - month. [7] - **Basic Logic**: After the geopolitical premium of oil prices is squeezed out, the cost side is weak. The downstream chemical demand recovers, and the inventory is neutral to bearish. [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the valuation is high. Technically, the short - term trend is weak. Lightly short or buy put options. PG focuses on [4130 - 4250]. [9] L - **Market Review**: The prices of futures contracts such as L01, L05, and L09 all declined slightly, and the main contract position decreased. [11] - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. In the medium - long term, new devices are planned to be put into production. [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. L focuses on [7150 - 7350]. [11] PP - **Market Review**: The prices of futures contracts such as PP01, PP05, and PP09 all declined slightly, and the main contract position decreased. [14] - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the market is in a weak stalemate. In the medium - long term, the supply is under pressure, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export profit is negative. [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. PP focuses on [6950 - 7150]. [14] PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC futures price fluctuates, and the spot supply - demand fundamentals are poor. [17] - **Basic Logic**: The production enterprise maintenance scale fluctuates little, the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the new devices are planned to be put into production in the future. [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. V focuses on [4750 - 4950]. [17] PX - **Market Review**: The PX futures and spot prices fluctuate, and the basis converges. [18] - **Basic Logic**: The PX profit improves, the domestic and foreign device loads are high, the demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is being depleted. [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously go long at low levels. PX focuses on [6680 - 6850]. [20] PTA - **Market Review**: The PTA futures and spot prices fluctuate, and the basis weakens. [21] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA device maintenance exceeds the restart, the demand is expected to weaken, the inventory is being depleted, and the processing fee is high. [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies and expand the TA - PR spread. TA focuses on [4710 - 4820]. [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. [24] - **Basic Logic**: The device load increases, the arrival is expected to rebound, the demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory is being depleted. [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase long in the long term, and focus on shorting opportunities at high levels. EG focuses on [4230 - 4310]. [26] Glass - **Market Review**: The spot price increases, the futures price falls, the basis expands, and the warehouse receipts decrease. [28] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic macro policy boosts, the supply is at a low level with small fluctuations, the cost moves down, and the valuation is low. [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot price increases, and it needs to approach the 5 - day moving average. FG focuses on [980 - 1010]. [28] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - soda spot price decreases, the futures price falls, the main contract basis narrows, and the warehouse receipts decrease. [30] - **Basic Logic**: The supply decreases slightly, the rigid demand is insufficient, the inventory accumulates, and the cost center moves down in the medium - long term. [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. SA focuses on [1150 - 1180]. [31] Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price decreases, the futures price rebounds weakly at a low level, the basis weakens, and the warehouse receipts remain unchanged. [33] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is at a high level, the demand support is insufficient, and there is an expectation of inventory depletion during the maintenance period. [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine prices fall, and the futures price rebounds within a range. SH focuses on [2330 - 2380]. [2] Methanol - **Market Review**: On June 27, the methanol spot price in East China increased, the main contract futures price decreased, the basis weakened, and the warehouse receipts increased. [35] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic device starts at a high load, the arrival in July may be less than expected, the demand feedback is negative, and the social inventory accumulates slightly. [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities for the 09 contract and go long on the 01 contract. MA focuses on [2360 - 2400]. [36] Urea - **Basic Logic**: The short - term supply pressure is large, the domestic demand is weak, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. UR focuses on [1690 - 1730]. [2] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost side weakens, the supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is affected by the weather. [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short. BU focuses on [3500 - 3600]. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level fluctuations. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged due to factors such as the progress of the US fiscal expansion bill, the weakening of the US dollar, and the long - term reshaping of the global order [1][3]. - Silver will have range - bound fluctuations as its logical drivers remain relatively stable, and the ratio of gold to silver has returned to the normal range [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold long positions. Although there is a risk of a high - level pullback, the long - term outlook for copper is positive [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure. In the long run, there is an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, so opportunities to short on rallies should be grasped [1][9]. - Lead's rebound is under pressure due to an expected increase in supply in July and unoptimistic downstream battery consumption [1]. - Tin's rebound is also under pressure as the supply from Myanmar's tin mines has not recovered and the consumption in the terminal field has entered the off - season [1]. - Aluminum is in a short - term rebound trend. However, as the terminal enters the off - season, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [1][12]. - Nickel is under pressure. The cost support has weakened, and the downstream stainless - steel industry has inventory accumulation pressure [1][14]. - Industrial silicon's rebound is under pressure. There are rumors of large - scale factory restarts, and the cost support has weakened [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the fundamentals remain in an oversupply situation, and the market has significant differences in downstream production schedules [1][15]. Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: SHFE gold closed at 776.1, up 1.11% from the previous value, and COMEX gold closed at 3349, up 1.01%. SHFE silver closed at 8810, up 0.55%, and COMEX silver closed at 36, down 0.30%. The Shanghai gold - to - silver ratio was 88.09, up 0.56% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The US fiscal expansion bill has made progress. The US Senate passed the "Great Beauty" bill on July 1st, including a $4.5 - trillion tax cut and a $1.2 - trillion spending cut. Other countries have made compromises in trade negotiations. The US dollar has continued to weaken significantly, with the Bloomberg dollar index falling for six consecutive months in June [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider long - term investment in gold when the price is around 760. Silver will have range - bound fluctuations, with strong support at 8560 [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The closing price of SHFE copper was 80390, up 0.46% from the previous day. The LME copper price was 9934, up 0.66%, and the COMEX copper price was 509.9, down 0.24% [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the processing TC of copper concentrates has dropped to - 43.57 dollars/ton. During the consumption off - season, the demand from the power and new - energy vehicle sectors has offset the lack of demand from traditional sectors such as construction [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions in copper, and take partial profits when the price is high. Be vigilant about the risk of a high - level pullback. In the short term, focus on the range of [78500, 81000] for SHFE copper and [9700, 9900] dollars/ton for LME copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of SHFE zinc was 22175, down 0.36% from the previous day. The LME zinc price was 2713.5, down 1.00% [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc mines is expected to be more abundant. Although there was a strike at a large zinc smelter in Peru, the overall supply of zinc mines is at a high level, and the TC has continued to rebound. Domestic inventories have slightly increased, and the downstream galvanizing enterprises' performance is lower than in previous years [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is under pressure. In the long run, short on rallies. Focus on the range of [22000, 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2650, 2750] dollars/ton for LME zinc [9][10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 2602 dollars/ton, up 0.17%, and the closing price of SHFE aluminum was 20635 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The price of alumina was under pressure and declined [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - sentiment has improved. However, as the terminal enters the off - season, the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is showing signs of accumulation. For alumina, the import of overseas bauxite remains at a high level, and the domestic production capacity has rebounded [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rallies for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventories. The main operating range is [20000 - 20800]. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of LME nickel was 15190 dollars/ton, up 0.43%, and the closing price of SHFE nickel was 120720 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The price of stainless steel also declined [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of nickel mines from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel mines has decreased, weakening the cost support. The domestic refined nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless - steel industry is facing inventory accumulation pressure during the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2509 of lithium carbonate closed at 62780 yuan/ton, up 0.84%. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 17598 tons, up 1.79%, and the weekly inventory was 136837 tons, up 1.44% [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: There are significant differences in the market's expectations for downstream production schedules. In the long - term, the supply of lithium carbonate exceeds demand, and the total inventory continues to reach new highs [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies within the range of [61800 - 63300] [16].