1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Rebound**: The report predicts a short - term rebound for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, although the short - term supply in China is sufficient and the approaching US soybean harvest weighs on prices, the Sino - US trade issue limits the continuous decline space. Rapeseed meal's trend mainly follows soybean meal, with trade policies and high inventory leading to a mixed situation of long and short factors [1][4]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to have short - term consolidation. Palm oil has a positive consumption outlook due to Indonesia and Malaysia's biodiesel policies and the procurement demand from China and India in September, but the frequent changes in the US biodiesel policy and the many short - term factors in the US soybean oil market may suppress its performance this month. Soybean oil is pressured by the US biodiesel policy changes and the approaching US soybean harvest, while the domestic double - festival stocking demand provides some support [1]. - **Oscillating Bullish**: Rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate bullishly. The Sino - Canadian trade dispute and the double - festival demand support its high - level and strong - oscillating price, but the gradual development of Sino - Australian trade restricts its continuous upward movement [1]. - **Cautiously Bearish**: Cotton, red dates, and live pigs are rated as cautiously bearish. For cotton, the increasing supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the poor export demand of US cotton, and the high level of unpriced buy orders suppress the price, with a possible short - term rebound due to potential new - cotton rush - buying. Red dates may face pressure after the new fruit is launched, with possible large price fluctuations before November. Live pigs' spot prices are under pressure from high - volume supply, and the market lacks clear positive factors in capacity regulation [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3014 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3031.71 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 165.2295 yuan/ton, up 20.16 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.686 million tons, up 25,000 tons from last week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.332 million tons, up 15,000 tons (0.21%) from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons, up 28,200 tons (2.48%) from last week [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract was 2522 yuan/ton, up 2.11% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2665.26 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 191.067 yuan/ton, up 67.23 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 12, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 74,000 tons, down 27,000 tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 17,500 tons, down 500 tons from last week [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract was 9316 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The national average price was 9345 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The import cost was 9411 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Inventory and Export Data**: As of September 12, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 641,500 tons, up 22,200 tons (3.58%) from last week. The export data of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15 showed different trends in different reports [7][8]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2601 decreased by 0.33% to 13720 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price dropped by 0.24% to 15293 yuan/ton. The ICE cotton main contract fell by 0.90% to 66.30 cents/pound [9][10]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In the international market, the US cotton harvest is approaching, and Brazil is in the harvest and supply period. In the domestic market, new cotton is about to be launched, the demand is weak, and the export of textile and clothing in August decreased year - on - year [10][11]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Price Information**: The red date main contract CJ2601 decreased by 0.47% to 10670 yuan/ton [13][15]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: The estimated new - season production is 560,000 - 620,000 tons. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises this week was 9247 tons, down 74 tons from last week [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The live pig main contract Lh2511 decreased by 0.47% to 12825 yuan/ton, and the latest spot price increased slightly by 0.23% to 12940 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is strong, and the planned出栏量 in September is expected to increase. In the medium - term, the出栏量 is expected to grow until the first quarter of 2026. The demand is expected to gradually show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each futures variety: cautious bullish for rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon; and recommends holding long positions for iron ore [1]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall steel market shows mixed signals. Rebar has positive supply - demand changes but limited downstream demand improvement, while hot - rolled coil has relatively stable supply - demand. Iron ore has a strong fundamental due to increased iron - water production, supply contraction, and pre - National Day restocking. Coke starts price hikes and runs in a range following coking coal. Coking coal has supply tightness but also import support and runs strongly in a range. Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon have relatively balanced supply - demand with limited upside potential [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Rebar**: The apparent demand improves month - on - month, production decreases slightly, and inventory starts to decline, but the inventory reduction speed needs further observation. Tangshan's production limit news provides a short - term boost. Iron - water production remains high, and overall steel supply is abundant. Downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and real estate and infrastructure are still drags. It is expected to run in a range in the short term [1][4][5]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand declines, production and inventory increase slightly, and supply - demand is relatively stable with few contradictions. Iron - water production remains high, and overall steel demand is weak, lacking upward drivers. It is expected to run in a range in the short term [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Iron - water production increases again, supply shrinks, and combined with pre - National Day restocking by steel mills, the fundamentals are strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [1][6][7]. Coke - Coke starts the first round of price hikes, coke enterprises' profits are acceptable, and spot production is relatively stable. Iron - water production increases slightly and remains high, leading to high raw material demand. Coke's supply - demand is relatively balanced and runs in a range following coking coal. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - The energy bureau's inspection of coal over - production has led to some mines' suspension for rectification. Domestic coking coal production is significantly lower than the same period last year, with tight supply, but there are expectations of a market recovery. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level. Iron - water production rises slightly, ensuring raw material demand. In the short term, supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it runs strongly in a range due to policy disturbances on the supply side. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1][14][15]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Ferromanganese**: The fundamentals are becoming looser. After the new round of restocking demand is released, it may be more difficult to reduce inventory in the production areas. The cost side provides strong support for prices in the short term, but the upside space is limited. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions or wait and see [1][17][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Enterprise inventory decreases slightly, but warehouse receipts stop decreasing and start to increase, with a still high absolute value, suppressing price increases. It is expected to run in a range following coal prices in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions [1][17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: High - level correction [1] - Copper: High - level correction [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Wide - range oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term bullish logic of gold and silver remains unchanged, despite short - term adjustments. Copper's long - term trend is positive, while zinc shows a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the medium - long term. Aluminum prices are under pressure, and nickel prices are also facing downward pressure. Lithium carbonate will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term due to strong terminal demand [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the probability of rate cuts in 2026 is lower than expected, and gold and silver prices have significantly adjusted [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment data has improved month - on - month, and many countries have followed the Fed in cutting interest rates. In the short term, the market is selling on the news, leading to a correction in gold prices. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, the selling on the news is common, but the volatility is expected to be limited. Silver has support around 9730. Wait for it to stabilize before making long - position purchases. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper has been oscillating and testing the support of the lower moving average [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight. High copper prices have suppressed demand, and inventories have continued to accumulate. Pay attention to the strength of domestic policies and the performance of the peak season [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed's interest rate cut was in line with expectations. The market has fully priced in the rate cut. Copper has oscillated and corrected, testing the support of the lower moving average. The long - term logic remains unchanged. Wait for copper to stop falling and stabilize before re - entering the market. For the medium - long term, be optimistic about copper [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has been under pressure and testing the support of the 22,000 - yuan level [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates was abundant. In September, domestic smelter maintenance increased, and zinc ingot production was expected to decrease. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have accumulated, while LME zinc inventories have continued to decline. The demand in September is expected to be good, but downstream buyers are purchasing on dips [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed's interest rate cut was in line with expectations. In the short term, LME zinc has risen and then fallen. Shanghai zinc is oscillating weakly and may test the support of the lower integer level. In the medium - long term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices have been under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts were in line with expectations. In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Inventories have accumulated. The demand side has shown a step - by - step recovery. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, and the supply pressure of alumina has increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have been under pressure, and stainless steel has rebounded and then fallen [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts were in line with expectations. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel has a large surplus pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The inventory of stainless steel has continued to decline, and the production volume in September is expected to increase. Pay attention to the improvement of terminal consumption during the peak season [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and moved lower, with the decline narrowing at the end of the session [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side has continued to release incremental production. Terminal demand is in the peak season, and the inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased. The price of lithium carbonate has support at the bottom and will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a low - buying strategy in the range of [72300 - 73500] [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has decreased, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The supply of crude oil is expected to be in excess in the medium - to - long term, and there is a high probability that it will be pressured to around $60. For other chemical products, their market trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonal demand [1][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.69%, Brent dropped 1.52%, and SC dropped 0.70% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have declined, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The U.S. crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected in the short term, providing some support, but there is a large probability of supply excess in the medium - to - long term, which may push the price down to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased in August. The U.S. crude oil net imports decreased, and exports increased. OPEC predicts stable growth in global oil demand. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while diesel inventory increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [480 - 495] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 18, the PG main contract closed at 4466 yuan/ton, down 0.42% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil supply is in excess, and the demand from the chemical industry has weakened. The supply and inventory have increased, which is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7188 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price has continued to fall. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is gradually shifting to a situation of both strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase next week, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is strengthening [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term weak oscillation. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of [7150 - 7250] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6926 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan [21]. - **Basic Logic**: High - level maintenance cannot offset high - level expansion. The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price is weak. The cost of propylene is high, suppressing processing profits. The downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price is at a premium. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [6850 - 7000] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4923 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a high level. The cost support from thermal coal has improved. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The export is expected to weaken [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips due to low valuation. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6864 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices have little change at home and abroad. The demand - side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance has led to a short - term increase in load. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [6620 - 6720] for PX511 [32]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4565 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The TA01 closed at 4648 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low. The supply pressure has increased due to new device production and the resumption of previous maintenance devices. The market has expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for single - side trading; pay attention to the opportunity to expand the PTA processing fee for arbitrage [2]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4378 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan. The EG01 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have little change. The market has expectations for the peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The inventory is low, providing some support. The market is trading on the expectation of new device production, showing a weak oscillation [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold high - level short positions, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [4235 - 4280] for EG01 [40]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2317 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The device maintenance of methanol has increased, and the supply - side pressure is expected to improve. The demand has slightly improved, and the social inventory has continued to accumulate, but at a slower pace. The cost support is stabilizing [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2328 - 2370] for MA01 [45]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The short - term supply is tight, but the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic demand is weak, while the export is good. The factory inventory has continued to accumulate, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options [2]. Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: The U.S. natural gas inventory has increased more than expected, causing the price to weaken. The cooling weather has increased the combustion demand and the winter gas storage, which provides some support [4]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has rebounded due to geopolitical disturbances, but the supply is in excess. The asphalt supply - demand is generally loose, and the valuation is high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Basic Logic**: The production and sales in some regions are okay, and the spot price has increased. The supply is under pressure, and the terminal demand is still weak [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to peak - season demand support, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda ash has improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased for four consecutive weeks. The supply is expected to be loose after the end of summer maintenance [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to slight demand improvement, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various steel and related products, including cautious bullish for rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, and coking coal; short-term long participation for iron ore; and cautious bearish for ferromanganese and ferrosilicon [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that the steel industry shows some positive changes in supply and demand, but there are still uncertainties and limitations. Different products have different supply and demand situations and price trends [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Rebar's apparent demand improves month-on-month, production decreases slightly, and inventory starts to decline. However, the speed of inventory reduction needs further observation. The Tangshan production restriction news provides a boost, but it is expected to be only a temporary impact. The high level of hot metal production keeps the overall steel supply high. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors still have a negative impact. The supply and demand driving force is limited, and it may operate within a range in the short term [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil decreases, production and inventory increase slightly, and the overall change is small. The supply and demand are relatively stable with few contradictions. The high level of hot metal production keeps the overall steel demand weak, and there is a lack of upward driving force on the supply and demand side. It may also operate within a range in the short term [1][4][5] Iron Ore - Iron ore's fundamentals are strong due to the increase in hot metal production, the recovery of foreign ore arrivals, and the pre-National Day steel mill restocking. However, the driving force is insufficient, and the upside space is limited. Short-term long participation is recommended [1][6][7] Coke - Coke has started the first round of price increases. Coke enterprises have decent profits, and spot production is relatively stable. The hot metal production increases slightly month-on-month and remains at a high level, resulting in high raw material demand. Coke's supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to operate within a range. A cautious bullish view is recommended [1][10][11] Coking Coal - The energy bureau's inspection of coal overproduction has started to take effect, with some coal mines shutting down for rectification. The current domestic coking coal production is significantly lower than the same period last year, resulting in a tight supply, but there are expectations of a market recovery. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is at a high level, and imports are running at a high level. The hot metal production increases slightly, and the high absolute level ensures raw material demand. There are few short-term supply and demand contradictions, but supply-side policies are sometimes disruptive. It operates strongly within a range in a positive atmosphere. A cautious bullish view is recommended [1][14][15] Ferrous Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: The supply and demand of ferromanganese both decrease month-on-month. The total inventory of sample enterprises is 198,900 tons, an increase of 32,100 tons month-on-month. The final tender price of a landmark steel mill in September is 6,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to August. Overall, the supply and demand tend to be loose, and the cost side strongly supports the price. There may be short-term correction pressure, and cautious long chasing is advised [1][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply and demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent. The total inventory of sample enterprises this week is 63,390 tons, a decrease of 6,550 tons month-on-month. The cost side still provides some support for the price in the short term, and the market may follow the coal price to operate within a range [1][17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans and Meal**: Short - term decline, with limited continuous decline space due to Sino - US trade issues, and treated as a large - range market. Caution is needed when short - selling below 2940 yuan [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline, with multiple and short factors intertwined due to trade policies and high inventory. It follows the trend of beans and meal, and the progress of Sino - Canadian trade should be monitored [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation, with a generally positive fundamental outlook. Look for short - term long opportunities on dips, but gradually control positions and risk management [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term consolidation, pressured by the US bio - diesel policy and approaching soybean harvest, while supported by domestic double - festival stocking demand. Be cautious when going long [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating upwards, supported by Sino - Canadian trade disputes and double - festival demand, but its upward movement is restricted by the development of Sino - Australian trade [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bearish, with supply pressure from the increasing volume of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries. Domestically, beware of short - term rebound due to potential抢购. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish, with concerns about quality gradually easing. There may be significant price fluctuations before November. Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - term decline, with the spot market under pressure from supply. Maintain a short - selling strategy for the November contract and an inverse spread strategy [1][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Beans and Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2993 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3025.43 yuan/ton, down 0.77% [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, up 2.50 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.2 million tons, up 1.50 million tons, and bean meal inventory was 116.44 million tons, up 2.82 million tons [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2470 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the national average spot price remained unchanged at 2636.84 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, down 2.7 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, down 0.05 million tons [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9304 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous day; the national average price was 9308 yuan/ton, down 1.64% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of September 12, 2025, the national key area commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons week - on - week [8]. Cotton - **Market Data**: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13765 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day; the domestic spot price rose 0.06% to 15330 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the US cotton harvest is approaching, and Brazil is in the harvest season. Domestically, new cotton is about to be listed, and the commercial inventory has decreased to 127 million tons [10][11]. Red Dates - **Market Data**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10620 yuan/ton, down 1.67% from the previous day [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The main producing areas are in the coloring and sugaring stage. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, and the inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 9247 tons, down 74 tons week - on - week [15]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The main contract Lh2511 closed at 12830 yuan/ton, down 1.31% from the previous day; the spot price was 13040 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The national sample enterprise's pig inventory was 3782.4 million tons, up 0.51% month - on - month, and the出栏 volume was 1117.72 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt [1][4] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, PVC, glass, soda ash [1][4] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, urea, natural gas [1][3][4] - **Bullish**: Methanol [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks are released, and the Fed's interest - rate cut is confirmed. Oil prices return to fundamental pricing. There are different supply - demand situations and price trends for various energy and chemical products [1]. - For most products, the macro - environment, including OPEC+ production policies, Fed interest - rate decisions, and geopolitical conflicts, has a significant impact on prices. At the same time, the supply - demand relationship of each product itself also determines its price trend [1][3]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 1.86%, Brent fell 1.48%, and SC rose 1.28%. The latest WTI主力 was at $63.32/barrel, Brent主力 at $67.46/barrel, and SC主力 at 499.8 yuan/barrel [5]. - **Basic Logic**: The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict and unexpected inventory drawdown in the US provide short - term support for oil prices, but there is a long - term supply surplus, with prices likely to fall to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: As of the week ending September 12, US crude net imports decreased by 3.1 million barrels/day to 415,000 barrels/day, and exports increased by 2.5 million barrels/day to 5.3 million barrels/day. EIA data showed a 9.3 - million - barrel decrease in US commercial crude inventories to 415.36 million barrels [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [495 - 505] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 16, the PG main contract closed at 4,494 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decline. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,540 (+10) yuan/ton, 4,499 (- 5) yuan/ton, and 4,550 (+10) yuan/ton respectively [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has a supply surplus and may decline further. The demand side has weakened due to falling chemical profits. As of September 17, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 13,002 lots [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,169 yuan/ton (- 40). The North China Ningmei price was 7,100 yuan/ton (- 30), and the number of warehouse receipts was 12,525 lots (+523) [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment has improved. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and demand. Production is expected to increase next week, and the demand side is supported by the approaching peak season for shed films [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of [7200 - 7350] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6,939 yuan/ton. The East China wire - drawing market price was 6,847 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 92 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support has improved. The recent increase in the PP parking ratio and the decline in the wire - drawing production ratio are expected to ease supply pressure. Downstream demand is entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips as supply pressure eases. Focus on the range of [6900 - 7050] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4,847 yuan/ton. The Changzhou spot price was 4,650 yuan/ton, and the 01 basis was - 197 yuan/ton [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment has improved, and the price has rebounded from a low level. Fundamentally, supply is strong and demand is weak, with large - sample social inventories accumulating for 12 consecutive weeks. There are more maintenance plans this week, and exports may weaken [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips supported by low valuations. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6,864 (+7) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,712 (- 66) yuan/ton. The PX11 - 12 month - spread was 24 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 85.7 (- 1.2) yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side domestic and overseas device changes are not significant. Demand has improved, with PTA device operating loads rising. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and inventories are still relatively high. Macro factors include OPEC+ production increases and a high probability of Fed interest - rate cuts [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Build long positions on dips in intraday trading and gradually close short positions. Focus on the range of [6750 - 6860] for PX511 [32]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PTA East China price was 4,565 (- 55) yuan/ton, and the TA01 closed at 4,648 (- 40) yuan/ton. The TA11 - 1 month - spread was - 18 (- 4) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 83 (- 15) yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low. Supply pressure increases due to the resumption of previously maintained devices and new device投产 expectations. There is an expectation of a "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, and demand is slightly better. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees and build long positions on dips in intraday trading [3]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,378 (- 44) yuan/ton, and the EG01 closed at 4,319 (- 31) yuan/ton. The EG10 - 1 month - spread was 34 (+21) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 106 (- 14) yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have not changed much. Arrivals and imports are relatively low. There is an expectation of a consumption peak season, and demand is improving. Inventories are low, providing support for prices. The market is trading on new device投产 expectations [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually close short positions and hold a light - position wait - and - see attitude. Focus on the range of [4270 - 4310] for EG01 [40]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,317 (- 8) yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2,379 (- 8) yuan/ton. The East China basis was - 65 yuan/ton, and the port basis was - 99 (+3) yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Methanol device maintenance has increased, and the operating load has declined slightly. Overseas device loads are still high, and imports are high, resulting in relatively large supply - side pressure. Demand has stopped falling, and cost support has stabilized [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not short firmly. Look for opportunities to build long positions on dips for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2350 - 2380] for MA01 [45]. Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously bullish. Short - term supply is tight, but it is expected to be loose. Domestic demand is weak, while exports are good. The domestic fundamentals are still relatively loose, but there are upper and lower limits under certain policies [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The urea futures price is under pressure in the short - term. Look for opportunities to build long positions on dips for the 01 contract in the medium - to - long - term [3]. Natural Gas - **Core View**: Cautiously bullish. Geopolitical factors drive up energy prices, and the temperature is getting cooler, increasing combustion demand and gas storage for winter [4]. Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. Although the cost - end crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, the supply is in surplus, and the overall supply - demand is loose, with high valuations [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Core View**: Bearish rebound. Market sentiment has improved, and enterprise inventories have decreased. New production lines have been ignited, increasing daily melting volume, but terminal demand is still weak [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish due to improved market sentiment [4]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish rebound. Market sentiment has improved, and enterprise inventories have decreased for three consecutive weeks. Demand is mostly rigid, and supply pressure is expected to ease due to upcoming device maintenance [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish with a slight improvement in demand, but bearish in the medium - to - long - term [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Cautious hold [1] - Copper: High - level correction [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound [1] Core Views - The Fed's "not dovish enough" rate cut is in line with expectations. The dot - plot shows 50bp of rate cuts by the end of the year. The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, while short - term "sell - on - news" trading risks should be guarded against. Silver has strong long - term prospects but is volatile. Copper is expected to have limited downside in the short term and is still favored in the long run. Zinc is a short - position allocation in the long term. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel prices face pressure on rebounds. Industrial silicon has short - term wide - range oscillations, polysilicon has high - level oscillations, and lithium carbonate has short - term wide - range oscillations with support at the bottom [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: There was a short - term adjustment in the gold and silver market. The Fed's rate cut was in line with expectations, and risks of adjustments due to sentiment fluctuations should be guarded against [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US data decline supports rate cuts. The Fed cut rates by 25bp, and many countries followed suit. In the short term, geopolitical uncertainties and economic prospects drive gold prices to new highs. In the long term, gold may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold remains strong in the long term, but there may be short - term fluctuations. Silver has support around 9800. Wait for it to stabilize before making long - position purchases. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, breaking through the 80,000 - yuan support level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and inventories continue to accumulate. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and the strength of the peak season [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed's rate cut was in line with expectations. Copper prices are under pressure in the short term, but the long - term logic remains unchanged. Wait for copper to stop falling and stabilize before re - entering the market. Long - term prospects for copper are positive [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc declined under pressure and tested the lower support level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Domestic inventories are accumulating, and overseas inventories are decreasing. Attention should be paid to domestic policies [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, Shanghai zinc oscillates weakly. In the long term, supply increases and demand decreases. Maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina showed a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, there are obvious expectations of rate cuts. Domestically, electrolytic aluminum production is increasing, and inventories are accumulating. The demand side is gradually recovering. Alumina supply is abundant, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rates [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, there are obvious expectations of rate cuts. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel has excessive pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The stainless steel market has expectations of a peak consumption season, and inventories are decreasing [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened lower and closed higher with a small gain [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side continues to increase production, and the terminal demand is in the peak season. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and the price has support at the bottom [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a long - position strategy in the range of 73,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the short - term trend is downward. Soybean meal is under short - term bearish pressure, but the continuous decline space is limited due to Sino - US trade issues. Rapeseed meal is affected by trade policies and high inventory, with its trend mainly following soybean meal [1]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are in short - term consolidation. Palm oil has a bullish fundamental outlook but is affected by the variable US biodiesel policy. Soybean oil is pressured by the US biodiesel policy and the approaching soybean harvest, with sufficient domestic supply [1]. - **Oscillating Bullish**: Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillating trend, supported by the Sino - Canadian trade dispute and double - festival demand, but its upward movement is restricted [1]. - **Cautiously Bullish**: Cotton is cautiously bullish. Although the supply side is pressured by the increasing volume of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the domestic market is in a tight pattern before new cotton is listed, and the USDA's downward adjustment of China's new - year stock - to - use ratio is bullish [1]. - **Cautiously Bearish**: Jujube is cautiously bearish. Considering the current production forecast and carry - over inventory, there is pressure when new jujubes are listed. There may be large price fluctuations before November [1]. - **Cautiously Bullish**: For live hogs, the short - term and near - month contracts are pressured, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts are expected to rise over time [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Varieties Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 116.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.82 million tons. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan from the previous day [2][3]. - **Analysis**: The USDA's September supply - demand report showed an increase in US soybean production and ending stocks, which was slightly bearish for US soybeans. The short - term trend of soybean meal is bearish, but the decline space is limited due to Sino - US trade issues [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons [6]. - **Analysis**: The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is low due to low imports, but the demand is weak. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation still has a long way to go, and the bullish impact is limited. The trend follows soybean meal [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.22 million tons. Malaysia's August palm oil ending inventory increased by 4.18% month - on - month [9]. - **Analysis**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the palm oil market, but the variable US biodiesel policy may suppress its performance. There are short - term long - buying opportunities on dips [1]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: As of the reporting period, the domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 127 million tons, lower than the same period last year. The spinning mill's operating rate increased by 0.5% to 66.5%, and the weaving mill's operating rate increased by 0.6% to 38% [10][12]. - **Analysis**: The supply side of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is under pressure, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The domestic market is tight before new cotton is listed, and there is support at the bottom of the short - term disk [1]. Jujube - **Market Conditions**: The main contract CJ2601 decreased by 0.514% to 10815 yuan/ton. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9321 tons, a decrease of 89 tons from last week [14][16]. - **Analysis**: The weather - related speculation window is shrinking, and the market's concern about quality issues is gradually easing. After new jujubes are listed, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap. There are opportunities to sell short on rebounds [1]. Live Hogs - **Market Conditions**: The main contract Lh2511 decreased by 1.59% to 13000 yuan/ton, and the domestic live hog spot price increased by 0.23% to 13320 yuan/ton. The national sample - enterprise live hog inventory increased by 0.51% to 3782.4 million, and the出栏量 increased by 2.39% to 1117.72 million heads [17][18]. - **Analysis**: The short - term and near - month contracts are pressured, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts are expected to rise over time, with strategies such as selling short on rebounds or 11 - 1 reverse spreads, and looking for long - buying opportunities for 07 and future 09 contracts [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Threaded steel: Cautiously bullish [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Cautiously bullish [1] - Iron ore: Hold long positions [1] - Coke: Cautiously bullish [1] - Coking coal: Bullish [1] - Manganese silicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ferrosilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views of the Report - The news of production restrictions in Tangshan has provided a boost, but it is expected to have only a temporary impact. The molten iron production has rebounded to over 2.4 million tons, at a relatively high absolute level. The production and apparent demand of threaded steel have decreased month-on-month, while the inventory continues to increase. Currently, it is in the stage of verifying the quality of demand, and the downstream demand has not improved. Meanwhile, there is a certain pressure on inventory and warehouse receipts. The supply-demand driving force is limited, and it will maintain a range-bound operation after reflecting the short-term policy bullishness. The production and apparent demand of hot-rolled coil have increased month-on-month, at relatively high absolute levels, and the inventory is basically stable. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coil are relatively stable, with few contradictions. The policy has brought a temporary boost, but there is a lack of continuous supply-demand drivers [1][4][5]. - The molten iron production has recovered rapidly. Pay attention to the profits and production cuts of steel enterprises. The port inventory has increased, and steel mills have made small replenishments. The arrivals and shipments of foreign ores have both decreased significantly, and the fundamentals are relatively strong. The ore price is oscillating strongly [1][8][9]. - The verification of overproduction in the coal industry by the Energy Bureau has begun to be implemented, and some coal mines have been shut down for rectification. The second round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and the coking profit has decreased. The production of coke enterprises is relatively stable. The molten iron production has increased significantly month-on-month, and the demand for raw materials is high. The supply and demand of coke itself are relatively balanced, and it will follow the strong trend of coking coal [1][12][13]. - The verification of overproduction in the coal industry by the Energy Bureau has begun to be implemented, and some coal mines have been shut down for rectification. The expectation of anti-involution has heated up again, and market confidence has been strengthened. The production of coking coal has increased month-on-month, but the increase is moderate. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is at a relatively high level, and the import volume is operating at a high level. The molten iron production has also increased significantly, ensuring the demand for raw materials. The total inventory has decreased, and there are few short-term supply-demand contradictions. It will operate strongly in a policy-friendly atmosphere [1][16][17]. - Against the background of the resumption of production in the production areas, the supply pressure continues to increase. On the demand side, the recovery of molten iron production still provides rigid support for the demand for manganese silicon. Pay attention to the new round of replenishment of steel mills. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction is yet to accumulate, and the cost side strongly supports the price. The short-term anti-involution sentiment has emerged again, and the price is operating strongly. The supply-demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent. The warehouse receipts are maintaining a downward trend from a high level, but the absolute value is still relatively high, suppressing the upward space of the price. The short-term anti-involution sentiment has emerged again, and the market will follow the strong trend of coal prices [1][20][21]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Information**: The latest prices of threaded steel futures contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3166, 3236, and 3069 respectively, with increases of 30, 31, and 24. The latest prices of hot-rolled coil futures contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3402, 3410, and 3433 respectively, with increases of 32, 36, and 35. The latest price of Tangshan billet is 3060, with an increase of 30. The prices of threaded steel in different regions (Tangshan, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu) range from 3190 to 3350, with increases of 10 - 40. The prices of hot-rolled coil in different regions (Tianjin, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu) range from 3350 to 3550, with increases of 20 - 40 [2]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The basis of threaded steel (01: Shanghai) is 104, with no change; the basis of hot-rolled coil (01: Shanghai) is 28, with a decrease of 12. The spreads between different futures contracts of threaded steel and hot-rolled coil also show certain changes [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The latest prices of iron ore futures contracts (01, 05, 09) are 804, 782, and 763 respectively, with increases of 8, 8, and 6. The prices of different iron ore powders (PB powder, Yangdi powder, BRBF powder) also show corresponding changes [6]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The basis of PB powder (01) is 47, with an increase of 1. The spreads between different futures contracts of iron ore also show certain changes [6]. Coke - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coke futures contracts (January, May, September) are 1735.0, 1873.5, and 1913.5 respectively, with increases of 46.5, 45.5, and 52.0. The prices of coke in different regions (Lüliang, Rizhao, Tangshan) also show certain changes [11]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of all independent coke enterprises is 75.9%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points. The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills is 240.6, an increase of 11.7. The daily average coke production of sample coking plants is 66.8, an increase of 2.4. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills is 46.4, a decrease of 0.2. The inventory of sample coking plants is 67.8, an increase of 1.3; the inventory of 247 steel mills is 633.3, an increase of 9.6. The inventory available days are 11.3, a decrease of 0.4. The port coke inventory is 205.1, with a slight increase of 0.1. The profit per ton of independent coking enterprises is 35.0, a decrease of 29.0 [11]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coking coal futures contracts (January, May, September) are 1240.5, 1329.5, and 1380.5 respectively, with increases of 53.0, 45.0, and 49.5. The prices of coking coal in different regions (Lüliang, Gujiao, etc.) also show certain changes [15]. - **Weekly Data**: The开工 rate of sample coal washing plants is 61.5%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The daily average clean coal production of sample coal washing plants is 52.1, with no change. The daily average coke production of sample coking plants is 53.3, an increase of 2.1. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills is 46.6, an increase of 0.9. The coking coal inventory of sample coking plants is 752.0, a decrease of 29.0; the inventory available days are 10.6, a decrease of 0.9. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 793.7, a decrease of 2.0; the inventory available days are 12.8, a decrease of 0.3. The total port coking coal inventory is 271.1, a decrease of 4.4 [15]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Price Information**: The latest prices of manganese silicon futures contracts (01, 05, 09) are 5944, 5980, and 5994 respectively, with increases of 38, 36, and 14. The latest prices of ferrosilicon futures contracts (01, 05, 09) are 5680, 5784, and 5892 respectively, with increases of 20, 18, and 90. The prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon in different regions also show corresponding changes [19]. - **Weekly Data**: The开工 rate of manganese silicon enterprises is 47.38%, an increase of 0.93 percentage points. The开工 rate of ferrosilicon enterprises is 34.84%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points. The production of 187 manganese silicon enterprises is 214130, an increase of 1295. The inventory of 63 manganese silicon enterprises is 166800, an increase of 6300. The production of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises is 113000, a decrease of 2000. The inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises is 69940, an increase of 3380 [19].