1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish oscillation. Supply will gradually increase, and although the short - term bearish pattern dominates, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after rebounds [1][3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline. The short - term bearish pattern is dominant, and it is advisable to wait and see for long positions [1][8]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound. There is a short - term rebound due to factors such as Indonesia's tariff adjustment, but be cautious when going long [1][10]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The short - term trend is strong, but there is high pressure to fill the previous high gap [1][14]. - **Red Dates**: Narrow - range oscillation. Under the pressure of high old - crop inventory, the market focuses on old - date consumption, and the quarterly demand is expected to weaken [1][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. There is a wide - range oscillation in the short term, and the idea of short - selling at high prices dominates in the future [1][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: South American soybean production is basically determined, and U.S. soybean planting has started. Rainfall is expected to recover in the next 15 days. There may be insufficient rainfall in the Great Lakes region in May, but the outlook for June is good [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: Domestic port and oil - mill soybean inventories are continuously accumulating. As the operating rate rises, soybean meal supply will gradually ease and enter an inventory - building cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs. The average monthly import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons [1][3]. - **Price and Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,914 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,172.86 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory and Supply**: As of May 9, coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory decreased, while rapeseed meal inventory increased. From May to July, rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, reducing long - term supply pressure [8]. - **Price and Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,509 yuan/ton, up 0.88% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,505.26 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Policy**: As of May 9, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil decreased. Indonesia raised palm oil export tariffs on May 17 [10]. - **Production and Market Data**: From May 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased. The market expects both production and sales in Southeast Asia to increase in May, with the export growth rate lower than the production growth rate. The futures price of the main contract closed at 8,184 yuan/ton, up 2.89% from the previous day [9][10]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of May 11, the U.S. cotton planting rate was 28%. According to the USDA's May 25/26 annual forecast, global production will decrease, and consumption will increase. U.S. and Brazilian ending stocks will increase, while Chinese and Australian ending stocks will decrease [12]. - **Domestic Situation**: In 2025, China's intended cotton planting area increased by 1.5%. The industry and commerce inventories are at a high level and are being depleted. Demand is entering the off - season, and textile enterprises are replenishing inventory as needed [12][13]. - **Price and Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 13,445 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous day. The domestic spot price increased by 1.32% to 14,389 yuan/ton [11][12]. Red Dates - **Production and Inventory**: Xinjiang's main - producing areas have normal jujube tree growth. The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 175 tons this week and is still higher than the same period last year [16]. - **Market and Consumption**: The sales area has continuous supply, and merchants mainly replenish inventory as needed. The pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking market is limited, and the demand for dried fruits is expected to weaken seasonally [16]. - **Price and Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9,095 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous day [15]. Live Pigs - **Supply and Inventory**: In May, the planned slaughter of sample farms increased. In the medium - term, the third - quarter supply may increase. The long - term supply is affected by the inventory of breeding sows. The national sample - enterprise live - pig inventory increased slightly, and the slaughter volume increased by 4.45% [17][18]. - **Price and Market Data**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 14,020 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products, although sentiment is boosted, supply and demand remain loose. The market may return to fundamental trading later. After this week, demand may enter the seasonal off - season, while steel mills may maintain high hot - metal production driven by profits, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand situation and a risk of intensified supply - demand contradictions later [3][4]. - For iron ore, the demand side shows increasing hot - metal production, and steel enterprise profits will support high iron ore demand. The supply side has a double - drop in phased arrivals, resulting in a strong supply - demand structure. However, terminal demand may weaken marginally later, and the contradiction with high hot - metal production will gradually accumulate, pressuring the industrial fundamentals [7]. - For coking coal and coke, the daily hot - metal output remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period. But even with high hot - metal output and strong raw material demand, the weakness of coking coal and coke cannot be reversed. If hot - metal output peaks later, they will face greater pressure. Coke production is still high, and the supply - loose situation is hard to change. After continuous decline, they may enter a short - term volatile market [10]. - For ferroalloys, the long - term supply of manganese ore is recovering, and the port inventory is expected to gradually increase. The industrial fundamentals of ferromanganese still need further improvement. For ferrosilicon, the cost support has weakened, and although the supply is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, the inventory is still relatively high [16]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Steel Products 3.1.1 Rebar - **Price Range**: [3080, 3140] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term volatile, medium - term weakening. After the initial progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the market may return to fundamental trading. Demand may enter the seasonal off - season after this week, while steel mills may maintain high hot - metal production, leading to a more relaxed supply - demand situation and a risk of intensified supply - demand contradictions later [1][4]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices for rebar 01, 05, and 10 are 3155, 3060, and 3127 respectively, with changes of 53, 27, and 48. Spot prices in different regions such as Tangshan, Shanghai, and Hangzhou also show different degrees of change [2]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Range**: [3220, 3280] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term volatile, medium - term weakening. The supply of hot - rolled coils has increased slightly, demand has decreased significantly, and inventory has risen. Exports are still high but may decline later. Macro news has limited boosting effect [1][4]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices for hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 are 3283, 3265, and 3267 respectively, with corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions also have different changes [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Range**: [710, 760] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term single - side trading can be participated in, and inter - period positive spreads can be held. The demand side has increasing hot - metal production, and steel enterprise profits support high iron ore demand. The supply side has a double - drop in phased arrivals, resulting in a strong supply - demand structure. However, terminal demand may weaken marginally later, and the contradiction with high hot - metal production will gradually accumulate, pressuring the industrial fundamentals [1][7][8]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices for iron ore 01, 05, and 09 are 700, 796, and 737 respectively, with changes of 15, 18, and 23. Spot prices of different iron ore types such as PB powder, Yangdi powder, and BRBF powder also show changes. There are also data on spreads, basis, freight rates, and spot indices [6]. 3.3 Coke - **Price Range**: [1450, 1500] - **Market Outlook**: Volatile. The daily hot - metal output remains at a relatively high level, but the weakness of coke cannot be reversed. If hot - metal output peaks later, coke will face greater pressure. Coke production is still high, and the supply - loose situation is hard to change. After continuous decline, it may enter a short - term volatile market [1][10]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices for coke 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1508.0, 1587.5, and 1482.0 respectively, with corresponding changes. There are also data on basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as production capacity utilization, inventory, and profit [9]. 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price Range**: [870, 900] - **Market Outlook**: Volatile. The exchange warehouse receipts exceed 200,000 tons, and the delivery pressure makes the coking coal market re - evaluate the warehouse receipt cost. The production of coking coal is at a high level, and imports have increased recently, resulting in a relatively loose supply situation. Although the demand is good due to high hot - metal output, there is a risk of peaking. After continuous decline, it may enter a short - term bottom - consolidation market [1][13]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices for coking coal 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 911.0, 850.5, and 894.5 respectively, with corresponding changes. There are also data on basis, spot prices, and weekly data such as washing plant operating rate, inventory, and production [12]. 3.5 Ferroalloys 3.5.1 Ferromanganese - **Price Range**: [5750, 5950] - **Market Outlook**: Broad - range volatile. The long - term supply of manganese ore is recovering, and the port inventory is expected to gradually increase. The industrial fundamentals still need further improvement. The recent production - cut news has some impact, but the operation in low - cost areas such as Inner Mongolia should be focused on. The cost support of ferromanganese is insufficient, and the inventory pressure in delivery warehouses remains [1][16]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices for ferromanganese 01, 05, and 09 are 5918, 5790, and 5864 respectively, with changes of 50, 52, and 54. There are also data on spot prices, basis, and spreads [15]. 3.5.2 Ferrosilicon - **Price Range**: [5590, 5770] - **Market Outlook**: Volatile and weakening. The cost support has weakened as some semi - coke manufacturers have resumed production after the holiday, and the semi - coke market has been weak recently. Although the supply is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, the inventory is still relatively high. The market lacks obvious upward drivers, and prices are expected to move within a range [1][16]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices for ferrosilicon 01, 05, and 09 are 5652, 5570, and 5602 respectively, with changes of 76, 58, and 66. There are also data on spot prices, basis, and spreads [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish oscillation. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to increase, and although the 10% tariff on US soybeans limits the actual negative impact on prices, the short - term bearish pattern dominates. Pay attention to US soybean planting weather and China - US progress [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term decline slows down. Although the current inventory has increased, the import from May to July is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced. The short - term bearish pattern still dominates [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure. The inventory in Malaysia is expected to increase in April, and the Southeast Asian palm oil inventory cycle has started. The expected increase in India's imports in May is positive for market sentiment [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating strongly. The China - US peace talks drive the rebound of US cotton prices, but the purchase increment space is limited. The domestic supply and demand situation is complex, with short - term support below 13,000 yuan strengthening, and caution is needed when chasing long positions in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillating strongly. The new - season red dates have not blossomed, and the old - crop high - inventory pressure exists. The post - May Day downstream arrival and transaction have accelerated, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is gradually emerging, which supports the short - term disk [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The supply surplus is expected to dominate the market in the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and there is a risk of large - weight pig source selling pressure. The 07 and 09 contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There is insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, but short - term lack of rain will not affect planting due to previous heavy rainfall. Pay attention to subsequent rainfall, and there may be insufficient rainfall in the Great Lakes region in May [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: From May to July, the monthly average import is over 10 million tons. With the resumption of post - holiday operations and soybean arrivals, the supply environment is gradually loosening, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are falling. As of May 9, 2025, the national port soybean inventory and oil - mill soybean inventory have increased [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,886 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day. The spot price has also declined. The basis, cross - variety spread, and cross - period spread have all changed to varying degrees [2]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory and Supply**: As of May 9, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory decreased, while the rapeseed meal inventory increased. The import from May to July is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced [8]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,487 yuan/ton, down 2.24% from the previous day. The spot price has also declined. The basis, cross - variety spread, and cross - period spread have all changed [5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory and Export**: As of May 9, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory decreased. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 10 decreased compared with the previous month. The expected increase in India's imports in May is positive for market sentiment [10]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil closed up the day before yesterday, and it is regarded as a short - term rebound. Pay attention to the gap resistance [1]. 3.4 Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of May 11, the US cotton planting rate was 28%. According to the USDA's May 25/26 annual forecast, the global production will decrease by 710,000 tons year - on - year, and consumption will increase by 304,000 tons. The ending inventory in the US, China, Brazil, and Australia will change differently [12]. - **Domestic Situation**: The intended planting area of cotton in China in 2025 has increased by 1.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to exceed 7 million tons. The industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, and the import in May is expected to shrink. The demand is entering the off - season, but the tariff adjustment may drive up the demand for cotton [13]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 increased by 0.68%. The spot price also increased. The basis, cross - period spread, and other indicators have changed [11]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Production Area and Inventory**: In some southern Xinjiang production areas, the jujube trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10,680 tons, an increase from last week and still higher than the same period [16]. - **Market Performance**: The main contract CJ2509 decreased by 0.06%. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. The demand is expected to weaken in the future, and the stocking is a short - term rebound [16]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2509 remained stable. The domestic live pig spot price decreased slightly. In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in May will increase slightly, and the weight will also increase slightly. In the medium term, the third - quarter supply may increase, and in the long term, the supply in early next year may be slightly affected by the number of breeding sows [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply surplus is expected to dominate the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and there is a risk of large - weight pig source selling pressure. The consumption side lacks continuous growth momentum [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market may return to fundamental trading after the initial progress in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations. After this week, demand may enter a seasonal off - peak, while steel mills may maintain high molten iron production, leading to a looser supply - demand situation and a risk of intensifying supply - demand contradictions in steel products [1][4]. - For iron ore, although the current supply - demand structure is strong, the terminal demand may weaken marginally, and the contradiction with high molten iron production is gradually accumulating, which may put pressure on the industrial fundamentals [1][7]. - For coking coal and coke, even with high molten iron production, they remain weak. If molten iron production peaks, they will face greater pressure, and the supply is relatively loose [1][10][13]. - For ferroalloys, the port inventory of manganese ore is expected to rise, and the cost support for ferrosilicon is weakening, with relatively high inventory levels [1][16]. Summary by Variety Steel Products Threaded Steel - **Variety View**: The market may return to fundamental trading. After this week, demand may enter a seasonal off - peak, and steel mills may maintain high molten iron production, leading to a looser supply - demand situation and a risk of intensifying supply - demand contradictions [1][4]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Short - term is expected to be in a volatile pattern, but the medium - term is still considered weak [1][5]. - **Price Range**: [3070, 3130] [1]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Variety View**: Supply has increased slightly, demand has decreased significantly, and inventory has risen. Exports are still high but may decline later [1][4]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Macro news has limited boosting effect. It will continue to be weak in the medium - term and may be in a volatile pattern in the short - term [1][5]. - **Price Range**: [3200, 3260] [1]. Iron Ore - **Variety View**: The demand for iron ore is supported by steel enterprise profits, and the supply - demand structure is currently strong. However, the terminal demand may weaken marginally, and the contradiction with high molten iron production is gradually accumulating, which may put pressure on the industrial fundamentals [1][7]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Participate in the short - term unilaterally and hold the inter - period positive spread [8]. - **Price Range**: [710, 750] [1]. Coke - **Variety View**: Even with high molten iron production, coke remains weak. If molten iron production peaks, it will face greater pressure. The supply is relatively loose, and it may enter a volatile market after continuous decline [1][10]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Volatile [11]. - **Price Range**: [1440, 1485] [1]. Coking Coal - **Variety View**: The delivery pressure makes the coking coal market re - evaluate the delivery cost. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand may peak. After continuous decline, it may enter a bottom consolidation phase in the short - term [1][13]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: Volatile [14]. - **Price Range**: [850, 890] [1]. Ferroalloys Manganese Silicon - **Variety View**: The long - term supply of manganese ore is recovering, and the port inventory is expected to rise. The industrial fundamentals need further improvement, and attention should be paid to the start - up situation in low - cost areas. The cost support is insufficient, and the inventory pressure in the delivery warehouse has not been relieved [1][16]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: The rebound height may be limited due to weak fundamentals, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern [17]. - **Price Range**: [5700, 5950] [1]. Ferrosilicon - **Variety View**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, but the inventory is relatively high. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed [1][16]. - **Disk Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to operate within a range [17]. - **Price Range**: [5450, 5750] [1].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏强 | 宏观面改善叠加旺季预期，油价短线偏强。中美关税超预期下降，宏观面改善，市场风 | | | | 险偏好上升；美国制裁与伊朗有业务往来的部分船只与炼厂；OPEC+扩产，油价上行空 | | | | 间有限。SC【485-500】 | | LPG | 震荡 | 油价走强 VS 自身供需面偏空，液化气盘整。成本端原油带动有限，对美关税降低后，进 | | | | 口丙烷成本降低；自身基本面相对偏空，库存累库，下游开工下降。PG【4380-4410】 | | L | 反弹 | 终端塑料制品出口预期好转，油价反弹，短期减仓反弹；供需双弱，产业链累库，基差 | | | | 走弱，多单可逐步止盈，不建议追高。中长期，装置投产压力偏高，反弹偏空。L【7200-7350】 | | PP | 反弹 | 短期跟随市场区间反弹，关税缓和，PDH 开工存上行预期，需求淡季，后续计划检修量 | | | | 偏少，基本面上行乏力，基差走弱。中长期，装置投产压力偏高，反弹偏空。PP【7100-7230】 | | PVC | 震荡 | ...

中辉有色观点 | 200 | 111 | 197 | 1 | I | 1 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | N | C | 1 | E | | | | 金银：关税谈判情绪和通胀降温影响，黄金震荡 表 1：产业高频数据 | 盘面信息 | 最新 | 最新 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 上周 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | SHFE黄金 | 767.68 | 772.28 | -0. 60% | 804 | -4. 46% | | | COMEX黄金 | 3255 | 3242 | 0. 39% | 3310 | -1.69% | | 白银 | SHFE 白 银 | 8245 | 8232 | 0. 16% | 8235 | 0. 12% | | | COMEX白银 | 33 | 33 | 0. 90% | 33 | 1.47% | | | 上海金银比 | 93. 40 | 93.81 | -0. 44% | 97.37 | -4. 07% | | 比价 | COME ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Soda ash: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Methanol: Bearish/Expand ur - ma spread [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Short - term bullish due to improved macro - environment and peak - season expectations, but upside limited [1][2][3] - LPG: Weakening due to reduced oil - price rebound momentum and lower import costs [1][5][6] - L: Sideways with weak supply and demand, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][8][10] - PP: Sideways with short - term market - sentiment - driven fluctuations, bearish on rallies in the long - term [1][11][13] - PVC: Sideways with weak fundamentals, short - term wait - and - see [1][14][16] - PX: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, but may correct [1][17][18] - PTA/PR: Bullish in the short - term with cost - driven fluctuations, may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [1][20][22] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish in the short - term with improved supply - demand, may correct [1][24][26] - Glass: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways with macro - fundamental game [1][28][29] - Soda ash: Bearish with weak fundamentals, low - level sideways [1][30] - Methanol: Bearish with a loose supply - demand pattern and weak cost support, bearish on rallies [1][32] - Urea: Bullish in the short - term with export - policy support, but watch for short - selling opportunities [1] - Asphalt: Bullish in the short - term with oil - price rebound and increased downstream开工率, but high valuation [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.88%, Brent up 1.64%, and SC up 1.53% [2] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+增产利空 released, Sino - US trade progress and peak - season expectations boost prices, but OPEC+扩产 limits upside. Supply may decrease in Iraq and CPC exports. Demand is expected to increase globally but decline in India. US commercial crude inventory decreased while strategic reserve increased [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term price range is $55 - 65. Short - term, sell bull - spread options. SC focus range is [475 - 495] [4] LPG - **Market Review**: On May 12, PG main contract closed at 4362 yuan/ton, down 0.52%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased [5] - **Basic Logic**: Oil - price rebound weakens, import costs drop, and fundamentals are bearish with increased inventory and decreased PDH开工率 [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term bearish as it follows oil prices. Short - term, short with a light position. PG focus range is [4300 - 4350] [7] L - **Market Review**: L09 main contract rose 1.6%. L主力持仓量 decreased slightly, and L仓单量 remained unchanged [9] - **Basic Logic**: New capacity has been put into operation, and import windows are mostly closed. Demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. Sino - US trade progress improves sentiment, but supply - demand is weak and inventory accumulates. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bearish on rallies. L focus range is [7080 - 7180] [10] PP - **Market Review**: PP09 main contract fell 0.3%. PP主力持仓量 increased, and PP仓单量 decreased slightly [12] - **Basic Logic**: A new PP device has been put into operation, and future PDH device commissioning is to be watched. Tariff easing may increase PDH开工率, but it's the demand off - season. Long - term, bearish on rallies due to new capacity and oil - price decline [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Bearish on rallies. PP focus range is [7000 - 7080] [13] PVC - **Market Review**: V09 main contract fell 0.7%. PVC仓单 increased [15] - **Basic Logic**: A new device was put into operation in January. Supply is high, and demand from the real - estate sector is weak. Exports may weaken. Registration extension leads to increased仓单, and there is no upward drive. Watch for spring - maintenance and macro - policy changes [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term participation. V focus range is [4700 - 4830] [16] PX - **Market Review**: On May 9, PX spot price in East China was 6500 yuan/ton, unchanged. PX09 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton [17] - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Domestic and overseas devices have various maintenance and restart situations. Demand from PTA devices is weak. Inventory is high but improving. May fundamentals continue to improve, but it follows cost fluctuations [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focus range is [6620, 6750] [19] PTA - **Market Review**: On May 9, PTA spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. TA09 contract closed at 4582 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases. Short - term, it follows cost fluctuations and is bullish, but may correct after macro - bullish sentiment fades [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA focus range is [4680, 4780] [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On May 9, ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. EG09 contract closed at 4218 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [24][25] - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance eases supply pressure. Import is higher than expected. Demand from downstream polyester is strong, and terminal weaving开工率 rebounds. Inventory decreases slightly. Short - term, it is bullish but may correct [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focus range is [4280, 4400] [27] Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, and the decline of the futures market slowed. Shahe basis widened, and仓单 increased [28] - **Basic Logic**: Macro - policies have limited impact on demand. The market faces supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and inventory accumulation. Price decline is limited, but recovery depends on policy effects and supply reduction [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focus range is [1020, 1060]. Watch the 5 - day moving average. Exit short positions if it breaks through [29] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - soda spot prices increased, and the futures market fluctuated. Basis fluctuated slightly, and仓单 and effective forecasts decreased [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure eases slightly due to device maintenance, but supply is still excessive as开工率 remains high. Demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level. Cost center moves down [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focus range is [1300, 1350] [31] Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 9, methanol spot price in East China was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Methanol main 09 contract closed at 2227 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as previous maintenance devices restart and imports are expected. Demand is weak, with MTO开工率 at a low level and traditional demand in the off - season. Inventory accumulates, and cost support is weak [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focus range is [2250, 2310] [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: Different commodities show diverse trends. Some are bearish in the short - term, some are experiencing rebounds, and others are in a state of shock - like trends. - **Commodity - specific**: - **Bean Meal**: Short - term bearish shock, with supply increasing and limited impact from Sino - US trade on prices [1][3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline trend slows, with long - term supply pressure easing [1][5][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound, affected by domestic inventory and international market conditions [1][7][8]. - **Cotton**: Shock - like and slightly stronger, driven by Sino - US trade and affected by supply and demand [1][9][10]. - **Red Dates**: Shock - like and slightly stronger, supported by pre - festival stocking [1][13][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure and in shock, with supply pressure expected to dominate in the second half of 2025 [1][15][17]. 3. Summary According to Commodity Categories Bean Meal - **Market Situation**: Futures price closed at 2908 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; spot price dropped 2.55% to 3227.71 yuan/ton [1][2]. - **Supply - side**: South American soybean production is determined, US soybean planting starts. In China, monthly imports from May to July are estimated to be over 10 million tons, and port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks [1][3]. - **Demand - side**: Pre - holiday stocking demand keeps the supply tight around May Day, but supply is increasing [1]. - **Price Trend**: Short - term bearish, with the short - term bearish pattern still dominant, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting weather and Sino - US relations [1][3][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: Inventory of oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal has increased month - on - month, but imports from May to July are expected to decline significantly year - on - year [1][5]. - **Supply - side**: Long - term supply pressure eases due to low import expectations [1][5]. - **Price Trend**: Short - term decline trend slows, with the short - term bearish pattern still dominant, and attention should be paid to Canadian rapeseed exports and Sino - US trade progress [1][5]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: Futures price closed at 8024 yuan/ton, up 1.75% from the previous day; domestic commercial inventory decreased by 5.28% week - on - week [7][8]. - **Supply - side**: Low domestic inventory and imports, but Southeast Asian palm oil is in a stocking cycle [1][8]. - **Demand - side**: India's expected increase in imports in May boosts market sentiment, but Malaysia's exports in the first ten days of this month decreased year - on - year [1][8]. - **Price Trend**: Short - term rebound, and attention should be paid to gap resistance [1][7][8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Zhengzhou cotton's main contract CF2509 increased by 2.24%, and ICE US cotton rose 0.04%; domestic spot increased by 0.46% [9][10]. - **Supply - side**: US cotton soil moisture improves, and China's new - season production is expected to be high [10][11]. - **Demand - side**: Entering the off - season, orders and operating rates decline, and Sino - US trade tariffs affect demand [11][12]. - **Price Trend**: Shock - like and slightly stronger, with support below 13,000 yuan, and caution is needed when chasing up [1][9][12]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2509 increased by 0.50%, and inventory of 36 sample enterprises increased by 175 tons [13][14]. - **Supply - side**: New - season jujubes have not blossomed, and old - crop inventory is high [14]. - **Demand - side**: Pre - festival stocking increases transactions, but overall demand is weakening [14]. - **Price Trend**: Shock - like and slightly stronger, with short - term support strengthening [1][13][14]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2509 decreased by 0.22%, and domestic spot price dropped 0.07% [15][16]. - **Supply - side**: Short - term supply growth slows, but medium - term supply may increase, and large - weight pig supply pressure persists [16][17]. - **Demand - side**: Consumption lacks continuous growth momentum [17]. - **Price Trend**: Under pressure and in shock, and contracts 07 and 09 should be sold on rallies [1][15][17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term tariff negotiation results lead to the retreat of risk - aversion sentiment, but in the long run, the re - balance of global asset allocation and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing will support gold to continue attracting incremental funds, and the bull market is not over. Different metal varieties have different trends and investment strategies [1][3] - For gold, it is in high - level adjustment in the short - term, and has long - term strategic allocation value. For silver, it is in wide - range adjustment. For copper, it is advisable to buy on dips. For zinc, it is recommended to sell on rallies. For lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel, their prices are expected to rebound and then fall. For industrial silicon and lithium carbonate, they are in low - level oscillations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Situation**: Due to the better - than - expected Sino - US tariff negotiation, gold has a large - scale adjustment. Gold prices in both SHFE and COMEX have declined, and the gold - silver ratio has also decreased. The dollar index has risen, and the real yield of US Treasury bonds has increased [2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term factors include the better - than - expected Sino - US trade negotiation results, postponed interest - rate cut expectations, and record - high US customs tariff revenues. Long - term factors are the re - balance of global asset allocation and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term gold may continue to adjust, and pay attention to the performance around 750. Long - term investors should wait for stabilization before entering the market. Silver may continue to oscillate in the range of [8020, 8350] [3] Copper - **Market Situation**: With the rise of the dollar index, copper prices rise first and then fall. The prices of SHFE copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper have all declined slightly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is disturbed, and the processing fee of copper concentrate hits a new low. The inventory outside the US is decreasing, and there is a risk of soft squeeze in the domestic market [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions, and some can take profits on rallies. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term range of SHFE copper is [77500, 78500], and that of LME copper is [9200, 9600] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices rise first and then fall, showing a weak and oscillating trend. The prices of SHFE zinc and LME zinc have declined slightly [8][9] - **Core Logic**: The supply of zinc mines is expected to be loose in 2025, but the export of a certain mine may be postponed. The domestic production of zinc ingots in April has increased, while the downstream demand is weakening [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rallies in the short - term. In the long - term, take the opportunity to go short when the price rallies. The range of SHFE zinc is [22000, 22500], and that of LME zinc is [2620, 2680] dollars per ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Aluminum prices stabilize and rise, and alumina rebounds from a low level. The prices of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum have increased [11] - **Core Logic**: The overseas trade environment eases. The domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has decreased, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has increased. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the cost support is weakening [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short - term long on SHFE aluminum on dips and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19500 - 20100]. Alumina is expected to operate in a weak range [12] Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel prices rebound and then fall, and stainless steel follows the rebound trend. The prices of LME nickel, SHFE nickel, and stainless steel futures have increased [13] - **Core Logic**: The increase in Indonesia's nickel - mine royalty and the news of the Philippines' ore - ban policy support the nickel price. The domestic refined nickel production has increased, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the terminal consumption is not optimistic [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [122000 - 129000] [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The main contract LC2507 first hits a new low and then rebounds. The prices of some futures contracts and spot prices have changed slightly [15] - **Core Logic**: The market is facing the dual dilemmas of cost collapse and oversupply. The production cost of overseas mines has decreased, the supply has not seen large - scale and continuous production cuts, and the demand in the second quarter is average [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to rebound in the low - level range of [63300 - 65200] [16]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 震荡偏弱 | 中美经贸谈判取得初步进展，行情反弹已有所反映，市场后期或重新再回 | | 螺纹钢 | | 到基本面交易。本周之后需求或进入季节性淡季，而钢厂在利润驱动下或 | | | | 维持高铁水产量，供需趋于宽松，后期供需矛盾存在激化风险。短期或呈 | | | | 震荡格局，但中期偏弱的判断不变。【3050，3120】 | | 热卷 | 震荡偏弱 | 基本面方面，热卷供应小幅增加，需求降幅较大，库存出现上升。出口仍 | | | | 在高位，但后期有回落风险。宏观消息提振有限，中期延续偏弱运行。【3180， | | | 3260】 | | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量继续增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持 | | | | 高位。供给端阶段性发到货双降，铁矿供需结构偏强。后期来看，终端需 | | | | 求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累。产业基本面恐承压。【700,735】 | | 焦炭 | 偏弱运行 | 铁水日产量维持同期偏高水平。但即使铁水产量高企，原料需求旺盛，仍 | | ...