交易咨询资格号： 晨会纪要 2025 年 4 月 29 日 证监许可[2012]112 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | РУС | 菜油 | 沪银 | | 玉米淀粉 | 豆粕 | 铁矿石 | | 螺纹钢 | 甲醇 | PTA | | 焦煤 | 棕櫚油 | 沪锡 | | 玉米 | 聚丙烯 | 玻璃 | | 沪铅 | 锰硅 | 焦炭 | | 热轧卷板 | 直一 | 菜粕 | | | 塑料 | | | | 白糖 | | | | 邦棉 | | | | 沥青 | | | | 걸ニ | | | | 护金 | | | | 鸡蛋 | | | | 橡胶 | | | | 旦相 | | | | 沪锌 | | | | 护铜 | | | | ...

供给侧政策短期利多，政策强定力中期依然弱势 中泰黑色报告 2025年4月28日 黑色研究团队 裴红彬 从业资格号：F0286311 交易咨询证书号：Z0010786 张 林 从业资格号：F0243334 交易咨询证书号：Z0000866 董雪珊 从业资格号：F3075616 交易咨询证书号：Z0018025 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 中泰黑色报告摘要20250426：供给侧政策短期利多，政策强定力中期依然弱势 交易逻辑和核心观点 受粗钢压减政策减产5000万吨消息影响，钢材走势震荡偏强运行。但从政治局会议精神来看，国内政策以稳为主，表现出较强定力，后期存量政策紧 踩油门，增量政策引而不发，大概率要等到出口等影响到经济增速以后，或者叠加对等关税90天豁免到期，也就是6-7月份之后，或者7月底的政治局会议。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 政治局会议精神对黑色市场影响：政策"两步走"，存量加速，增量蓄力 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 从成本来看，原料价格近期废钢提涨以及铁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound space of soda ash and glass is limited due to market sentiment disturbances. For soda ash, the futures price has shifted upward due to macro - disturbances and maintenance expectations. Although the high supply currently exerts pressure on prices, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in May. For glass, the sales - to - production ratio has rebounded, but the pessimistic market expectation remains unchanged [1][4][54]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Price - **Futures Price**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts increased by 32, 25, and 14 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 7, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 11. The basis of the main contract increased by 17 [6]. - **Spot Price**: During the same period, the price of heavy - alkali in some regions remained stable, while the price of light - alkali in the central region decreased by 40 [6]. 3.1.2 Supply - The overall capacity utilization rate decreased slightly by 0.06 percentage points to 89.44%. The weekly output decreased by 0.05 million tons to 75.51 million tons, a decrease of 0.07%. The heavy - alkali output decreased by 0.10 million tons to 41.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.24%. Although the light - alkali output increased slightly by 0.05 million tons to 33.96 million tons, an increase of 0.15%, the high supply still exerts pressure on prices. However, there is an expectation of a decrease in production in early May as the number of maintenance enterprises gradually increases [7]. 3.1.3 Demand - The daily output of float glass decreased by 0.07 million tons to 15.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.44%. The daily output of photovoltaic glass increased by 0.08 million tons to 9.73 million tons, an increase of 0.83%. The apparent demand for light - alkali decreased by 1.97 million tons to 33.60 million tons, a decrease of 5.54% [7]. 3.1.4 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2.03 million tons to 169.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.19%. The heavy - alkali inventory decreased by 2.39 million tons to 84.05 million tons, a decrease of 2.76%, while the light - alkali inventory increased slightly by 0.36 million tons to 85.05 million tons, an increase of 0.43% [7]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profit of the combined - soda process increased by 101.40 yuan/ton to 255.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 110.13%. The profit of the ammonia - soda process increased by 78.25 yuan/ton to 17.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 121.85% [52]. 3.1.6 Market Outlook - In the short term, the price of soda ash may fluctuate or fluctuate slightly upward as the expectation of inventory accumulation in alkali plants is low. In the long term, high supply and high inventory will still suppress prices [8]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Price - **Futures Price**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the prices of 2505, 2509, and 2601 contracts changed by 13, - 9, and - 7 respectively. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 22, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2 [56]. - **Spot Price**: During the same period, the price of 5mm glass in Shahe increased by 4 yuan/ton, while the price in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the prices in other regions remained stable [56]. 3.2.2 Supply - The capacity utilization rate increased slightly by 0.19 percentage points to 75.85%. The daily output decreased by 0.07 million tons to 15.78 million tons, and the weekly output decreased by 0.35 million tons to 110.58 million tons. The supply remained relatively stable [57]. 3.2.3 Demand - The apparent demand decreased by 2.95 million tons to 108.61 million tons, a decrease of 3%. The orders of processing plants varied, with most orders increasing slightly but not significantly. Most purchases of raw glass were for rigid demand, and the sales - to - production ratio declined significantly in the second half of the week [57]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The total inventory increased by 39.5 million weight - cases to 6547.3 million weight - cases, an increase of 1%. The inventory of traders in Shahe decreased by 44 million weight - cases to 360 million weight - cases, a decrease of 11% [57]. 3.2.5 Profit - The profit of natural - gas - fired glass increased by 13.72 yuan/ton to - 153.13 yuan/ton, an increase of 8%. The profit of coal - gas - fired glass increased by 16.36 yuan/ton to 145.05 yuan/ton, an increase of 13%. The profit of petroleum - coke - fired glass decreased by 34.29 yuan/ton to - 38.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 845% [57]. 3.2.6 Market Outlook - In the short term, the glass market has no obvious driving force on the fundamental side, and the price will maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the changes in terminal demand after the holiday and the impact of the commodity market sentiment [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and pulp prices have stopped falling and stabilized. There is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. The import reduction in April and the expectation of US tariffs are still in a game with the weak demand and high inventory in the fundamentals. The pulp market will maintain a weak and volatile trend until the demand improves. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm in April and the spot inventory rhythm [15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic: The domestic pulp production started to pick up slightly this week. The 700,000 - ton chemical pulp project of Huatai has been put into production successively, and Asia Symbol has gradually resumed production. The domestic supply is relatively stable. In the week of April 25, the output of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 181,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,100 tons; the output of chemi - mechanical pulp was 202,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,200 tons [6][7]. - Import: In March 2025, the total pulp import volume was 3.249 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The cumulative import volume was 9.639 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In the medium - term (late March and April), the shipments of both softwood and hardwood pulp decreased, especially for hardwood pulp. Although it recovered in May, considering the Sino - US tariff issue, it is expected that the import of softwood pulp from the US will decrease significantly from early June [7]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: The downstream pulp demand was 846,100 tons in the week of April 24, a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.56%. The downstream production of various types of paper was relatively stable, gradually entering the off - season [10]. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate this week, with negative market purchasing and weak trading sentiment. The warehouse receipt inventory was basically stable, with a quantitative cancellation last week. The downstream finished - product inventory tended to fluctuate and accumulate as the downstream entered the off - season, but the production and sales were basically balanced [10]. 1.3 Cost and Profit - Cost: The spot pulp price declined with the market, and the foreign quotation decreased significantly. The domestic cost of broad - leaf pulp was 3,887 yuan/ton on April 25, a month - on - month increase of 76 yuan/ton; the cost of imported softwood pulp such as Silver Star decreased [12]. - Profit: The immediate import profit of pulp recovered, and the immediate profit of paper improved as raw material prices gradually declined. For example, the profit of Silver Star pulp was 80 yuan/ton on April 25, a significant improvement compared to - 283 yuan/ton on April 3 [12]. 1.4 Strategy Recommendation - The reasons for market fluctuations are the weak downstream start - up rates. The white cardboard start - up rate decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, the offset paper increased by 0.1%, the coated paper increased by 0.3%, and the tissue paper decreased by 0.7%. - The future market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend until the demand improves. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment, and focus on the arrival rhythm in April and the spot inventory rhythm [15]. Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly pulp balance sheet from January 2024 to May 2025, including import volume, domestic production, downstream production, pulp consumption, factory inventory, and total inventory. Overall, the growth rate of supply and demand has gradually slowed down, and the inventory has fluctuated [18]. Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The global pulp shipment volume showed a decreasing trend in the medium - term, especially for hardwood pulp. - Demand and Inventory: Information about European apparent demand and inventory is not detailed in the provided content. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: - Import: The import volume of various types of pulp such as softwood and hardwood pulp, chemi - mechanical pulp, and wood chips has different trends. For example, the import volume of softwood pulp from the US is expected to decrease significantly due to tariffs [7]. - Domestic Production: Some domestic pulp projects have been put into production or resumed production, increasing the domestic supply [7]. - Demand: - Pulp Apparent Demand: The overall demand is relatively stable but gradually enters the off - season. - Downstream Finished - Product Paper: The production of various types of finished - product paper such as tissue paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard is relatively stable, and there are some new production capacity plans and device changes [95]. - Inventory: The total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port inventory have different trends, with the port inventory mainly accumulating and the warehouse receipt inventory being relatively stable [10]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - Pulp Import Cost and Profit: The import cost has decreased, and the profit has recovered. - Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit: The domestic production cost and profit situation are also affected by market price fluctuations. Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Pulp Foreign Quotation: The foreign quotation of pulp has decreased, and other brands are also expected to follow the downward trend with a significant decline [14]. - Price Seasonality: The prices of various pulp brands such as Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish have different seasonal trends. - Spread Seasonality: The spreads between different pulp brands also show seasonal characteristics. - Basis: The basis of pulp is relatively stable, and the spot market fluctuates closely with the futures market, maintaining a high basis level [14].

交易咨询资格号： 2025 年 4 月 28 日 证监许可[2012]112 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/4/28 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | | 铁矿石 | 焦炭 | 甲醇 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 红枣 | 焦煤 | 热轧卷板 | | | | | 液化石油气 | 沥青 | 螺纹钢 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 工业硅 | 原油 | 苹果 | | | | | 多晶硅 | 氧化铝 | 铝 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 塑料 | 碳酸锂 | 三十债 | | | 客服电话： | | 铁矿石 | 橡胶 | 十债 | | | | | | 尿素 | 热轧卷板 | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 烧碱 | 螺纹钢 | | | | | | 纸浆 | 燃油 | | | 公司网址： | | | 玻 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views 2.1纯碱市场 - Low - price soda ash manufacturers' terminal and spot - futures orders have improved, some manufacturers have closed orders and have no pressure, while high - price manufacturers have high inventories, and the differentiation between manufacturers continues [9]. - The long - term players replicate the February strategy, using centralized maintenance to drive positive feedback between spot and futures. Currently, low - price upstream has no pressure and lacks the motivation to cut prices in the short term, but the pricing power of the futures market is strengthened after the middle - stream inventory increases. The trend of short - selling remains unchanged, but it is advisable to be cautious before the end of the positive feedback atmosphere [9]. 2.2 Glass market - From a valuation perspective, it has entered an ideal layout range, but it is necessary to wait for the market sentiment to improve. Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in production lines, the digestion progress of low - price spot - futures sources, and the changes in the spot volume - price sentiment in the main production areas [174]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Market Review - **Supply**: The total weekly production is 75.51 million tons, with heavy - soda production at 41.55 million tons and light - soda production at 33.96 million tons. The import is 0.07 million tons, and the export is 4.2 million tons. The supply is generally at a high level, and there are short - term fluctuations in production. There are plans for maintenance in May, and potential incremental production awaits the full - capacity operation of Jiangsu Debang and the subsequent trial operation of Lianyungang Soda Plant [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - soda consumption is 34.35 million tons, and the light - soda apparent demand is 30.87 million tons. The apparent demand for soda ash is 77.54 million tons. The market's expectation for terminal finished product demand is weak, but the short - term apparent demand may be boosted by the positive feedback between the futures and the spot market [8]. - **Inventory**: The alkali - plant inventory is 169.10 million tons, and the social inventory is 33.85 million tons. The positive feedback may relieve the upstream pressure recently, and the middle - stream inventory may stop falling and rise [8]. - **Valuation**: The cost of the ammonia - soda process is 1501 yuan, and the profit is - 111 yuan. The cost of the combined - soda process is 1198 yuan, and the profit is 92 yuan. The Huazhong heavy - soda and light - soda price difference is 40 yuan, and the Shahe market price basis is 20 yuan [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - The monthly production, apparent demand, and production - sales ratio of soda ash from 2020 to 2025 are presented. The current import volume of soda ash is 0.32 million tons, the export volume is 19.43 million tons, the average import price is 210.21 yuan, and the average export price is 189.96 yuan [15][16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - **Period - spot price comparison**: The price trends of soda ash futures price index, Shahe area heavy - soda market price, Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, and glass futures price index from 2020 to 2025 are shown [24][25][26][27]. - **Soda ash contract basis**: The basis trends of Shahe heavy - soda 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 are presented [29][31][32]. - **Soda ash contract inter - period spread**: The spread trends of soda ash 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 from 2021 to 2026 are shown [34][35][36]. - **Glass - soda ash contract/spot spread**: The spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 and the spot spread of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate glass - soda ash from 2022 to 2025 are presented [38][39][40][42]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - **Shahe area**: The current market price of heavy - soda in Shahe is 1341 yuan, with a weekly increase of 51 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 809 yuan [47]. - **Regional price differences between heavy and light soda ash**: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions such as North China, East China, Central China, etc. are shown, and their price changes from April 18th to April 25th are presented [51]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - **Start - stop situation**: Some manufacturers are currently under maintenance or reducing production loads, and there are also planned maintenance arrangements for some manufacturers in May [89]. - **Start - up rate**: The current domestic soda ash start - up rate is 89.44%, with a weekly decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.83 percentage points [90]. - **Cost and profit**: The cost and profit trends of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process from 2020 to 2025 are presented, as well as the prices of relevant raw materials such as synthetic ammonia, limestone, etc. [101][103][105][107][113]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - **Heavy - soda demand**: The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass and float glass, the daily consumption of heavy - soda, and the weekly demand for heavy - soda from 2021 to 2025 are presented [136][138][139][140]. - **Weekly apparent consumption and production - sales ratio**: The weekly consumption and production - sales ratio of light - soda, heavy - soda, and soda ash from 2020 to 2025 are presented [142]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - The current alkali - plant inventory is 169.1 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 2.03 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 80.01 million tons. The inventory days are 14.13 days [150]. - The inventory trends of alkali - plants, light - soda, and heavy - soda in different regions from 2020 to 2025 are presented [151][155][157]. 3.8 Glass Market Review - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of float glass is 157,775 tons, with a weekly decrease of 700 tons. The weekly production is 110.44 million tons, with a decrease of 0.49 million tons [172]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption is 108.47 million tons, with a decrease of 3.09 million tons. The market sentiment suppresses the apparent demand, but the pre - holiday restocking promotes the month - on - month increase [172]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory is 327.37 million tons, with an increase of 1.98 million tons. The continuous inventory reduction has ended, and inventories have increased in most regions except Southwest and Northwest China [172]. - **Valuation**: The cost and profit of natural - gas - fired, coal - gas - fired, and petroleum - coke - fired glass production lines are presented. The cost of the natural - gas - fired line is 1446 yuan, and the profit is - 76 yuan; the cost of the coal - gas - fired line is 960 yuan, and the profit is 268 yuan; the cost of the petroleum - coke - fired line is 1079 yuan, and the profit is 101 yuan [172]. 3.9 Glass Monthly Supply and Demand - The monthly production, import, and export volume of flat glass and float glass from 2020 to 2025 are presented [179][181][184]. 3.10 Glass Basis and Spread - **Period - spot price comparison**: The price trends of soda ash futures price index, glass futures price index, Shahe area heavy - soda market price, and Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price from 2020 to 2025 are shown [188][189][190][191]. - **Glass contract basis**: The basis trends of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 are presented [193][194][195]. - **Glass contract inter - period spread**: The spread trends of glass 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 from 2020 to 2026 are shown [198][199][200]. - **Glass - soda ash contract/spot spread**: The spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 and the spot spread of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate glass - soda ash from 2022 to 2025 are presented [203][205][206][207]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - The prices of 5mm float glass in different regions such as Shahe, North China, East China, etc. and their price changes from April 18th to April 25th are shown [210]. - The price trends of 5mm float glass in different regions from 2020 to 2025 are presented [212][214][215]. 3.12 Glass Supply - **Profit of float glass**: The current profit of coal - gas - fired float glass enterprises is 145.05 yuan, that of petroleum - coke - fired enterprises is - 38.35 yuan, and that of natural - gas - fired enterprises is - 153.13 yuan [245]. - **Production line dynamics**: The cold - repair, ignition, and new - construction/复产 situations of float glass production lines in 2024 and 2025 are presented [252][253][254][256]. - **Start - up situation**: The current number of operating float glass production lines is 225, the start - up rate is 75.85%, and the in - production capacity is 157,775 tons per day [257]. 3.13 Glass Demand - **Apparent consumption and production - sales ratio of float glass**: The apparent consumption and production - sales ratio of float glass from 2020 to 2025 are presented [269][270]. - **Deep - processing start - up rate and capacity utilization rate**: The capacity utilization rate and start - up rate of glass tempering furnaces from 2022 to 2025 are presented [273][274]. 3.14 Glass Inventory - The current inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 327.37 million tons, with a weekly increase of 1.98 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 25.50 million tons. The inventory days are 29.4 days [277]. - The inventory trends of float glass in different regions from 2020 to 2025 are presented [281][283][284]. 3.15 Warehouse Receipt Quantity/Valid Forecast - The current number of glass warehouse receipts is 2441, with a weekly decrease of 625. The number of soda ash warehouse receipts is 3930, with a weekly decrease of 150 [294]. - The valid forecast trends of soda ash warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 are presented [300][301][303]. 3.16 Real Estate - Related Data - **New housing construction area**: The cumulative and monthly new housing construction areas and their year - on - year growth rates from 2020 to 2025 are presented [315][317][318]. - **Housing construction area**: The cumulative and monthly housing construction areas and their year - on - year growth rates from 2020 to 2025 are presented [321][323][324]. - **Housing completion area**: The cumulative and monthly housing completion areas and their year - on - year growth rates from 2020 to 2025 are presented [327][329][330]. - **Housing sales area**: The cumulative and monthly housing sales areas and their year - on - year growth rates from 2020 to 2025 are presented [333][335][336].

中泰期货尿素周报 2025年4月28日 ——现货成交重心下移 新交割库大批量启用 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-86113507 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 主要内容 3 2 尿素及相关产品价格 尿素供应 1 综述 5 4 尿素需求 尿素库存 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 综述 | 产业链 | | 2025年4月17日-4月23日 | 2025年4月24日-4月30日 | 2025年5月1日-5月7日 | 2025年5月8日-5月14日 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 周度日均产量：万 | 19.28 | 19.86 | 20.14 | 20.00 | 上周新增1家企业停车，停车企业恢复3家，本周预计0家企业 | | | 吨 | | | | | 计划检修，4家停车企业恢复生产(预估数据来自隆众资讯） | | | 农业需求 | 农需持续 ...

中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年4月28日 --------氯强碱弱综合利润上涨 期货仓单数量稀少 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 上周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为82.1%，较上周环比-0.2。西北、华中、华南新增检修装置 | | | | 影响负荷下滑，周内华北、西南装置检修结束负荷提升。山东复产与减产企业并存，复产产能大于减产产能，山 | | | | 东产能利用率+4.0%至91%。本周来看，西北、华北、华中、华东、华南、西南均有装置复产，复产涉及企业较多， | | | | 因 ...

供需环比好转，转入偏强震荡 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2025年4月28日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 甲醇需求仍没有很明确的利好，但连续几周去库，目前库存已经处于同期偏低水平，对市场信心略有提 振，甲醇可能会有一波小的反弹。 产业链去库超预期，预计对甲醇略微偏利多。我们建议甲醇转入偏强震荡思路对待，关注反弹机会。 单边策略：建议转入偏强震荡思路对待。 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊朗甲醇出口受阻 图表 2 ：甲醇主力合约基差（元 / 吨） 现货市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 甲醇现货市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is currently in a state of short - term weakness due to the decline in expectations of central bank easing, but the market has not given up on trading for future easing. Long - term and ultra - long - term bonds are expected to perform better than medium - and short - term bonds, and far - month contracts are better than near - month contracts. Prudent investors can stay on the sidelines [7]. - The current domestic economic data shows a comprehensive recovery, but the financial assets are weak because the market anticipates that the current high - growth data may be the peak in the future. There are also strong expectations of economic weakness under future tariff conflicts [24]. - Globally, the US economic data is showing signs of weakening, especially in the service sector. The US simple - minded tariff - adding policy will lead to a significant slowdown in the US economic growth and bring recession and deflationary pressures to non - US countries [24][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - In the bond market, the short - term weakness is due to the disappointment of central bank easing expectations. The market still has expectations for future easing, and the phenomenon of "lengthening duration for defense" is emerging, with short - term bonds weakening and long - term and ultra - long - term bonds relatively strong [7]. - For equity assets, the bottom is relatively clear under the strong support of the "national team", but the upward elasticity requires both micro and macro drivers [7]. 3.2 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes (P5 - 6) - Domestic bond yields fluctuated slightly, US bond yields declined for the second consecutive week, the US dollar index was flat, gold soared and then retreated, and the commodity and equity markets were mainly in a volatile state [9]. 3.3 Recent Macro Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - Domestic: The year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in March declined significantly, while the cumulative growth rate from January to March increased. The main contributing sectors were non - ferrous metals, special equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment. The inventory form showed weak restocking willingness at the enterprise level [7][18]. - Overseas: US economic data weakened, with the service sector PMI significantly lower than the previous value and expectations. Although the manufacturing PMI rebounded, it was not enough to offset the decline in the service sector. The market has priced in the expected significant decline of US macroeconomic data to some extent [7]. 3.4 Fundamentals Analysis and Bond Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P14 - 24) - After the tax - payment period, the fund flow fluctuated and declined. The central bank announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on the 25th, with 100 billion yuan due this month. The LPR quote remained unchanged, and the market's expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts continued to decline [7][32]. - The fund flow remained loose this week, falling below 1.7% on Friday. The disappointment of easing expectations dragged down the short - term bond market, especially since bond assets implied an expected interest rate cut of approximately 30bp [7][32]. 3.5 Equity Broad - Based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P25 - 29) No relevant content provided. 3.6 Medium - Term Macroeconomic Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P30 - 46) - The Politburo meeting set the tone for the economic situation as improving but facing increasing external shocks. Policy priorities are employment > short - term economic growth and high - quality development > extensive strong stimulus [7][19]. - Fiscal policy focuses on accelerating the use of local bonds and special treasury bonds, and there is no mention of additional issuance. Monetary policy has changed from "seizing the opportunity" to "timely", reducing the short - term necessity and freedom of interest rate cuts but increasing the autonomy of future monetary easing [7][19]. 3.7 Long - Wave Macroeconomic Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P47 - 48) No relevant content provided.