Group 1: Stock and Bond - Stock index long positions are recommended as data reflects China's economic resilience and market risk aversion eases [2] - Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly as market interest rates consolidate and Treasury bonds rebound narrowly [2] Group 2: Black Sector - Shanxi's mainstream steel mills limit crude steel production by about 6 million tons, and the supply of finished products may shrink under the "anti-involution" trend. The black sector has risen significantly driven by sentiment [3] Group 3: Gold - Market risk aversion rebounds due to Trump's tax increase letters, boosting the gold price. Gold is expected to maintain high-level volatility [4] Group 4: Log - Log spot market prices are weak, with a 10-yuan decline in the Jiangsu market. Supply pressure eases, and the impact of log futures delivery on prices should be noted [5] Group 5: Rubber - Weather in Southeast Asian rubber-producing areas eases, but the natural rubber price remains under pressure as supply-demand contradictions are not significantly alleviated [6] Group 6: Soybean and Bean Meal - The estimated reduction in US soybean planting area is limited, and the soybean production outlook is positive. With high imports and rising inventory, bean meal is expected to be weak [7] Group 7: Oil and Chemicals - Oil prices face a callback risk, and PX, PTA, and MEC are affected by supply-demand changes and cost fluctuations [8] Group 8: Pig - The pig price may continue to rise in the short term, and southern China may lead a new round of price increases after July [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Rebound [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Fluctuation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Fluctuation [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda Ash: Fluctuation [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Uptrend [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Uptrend [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Fluctuation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Fluctuation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level Fluctuation [4] - Silver: High - level Fluctuation [4] - Pulp: Fluctuation [6] - Logs: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Palm Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Soybean Meal: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - No. 2 Soybeans: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - No. 1 Soybeans: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - Live Pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Rebound [9] - PX: Wait - and - See [9] - PTA: Try Shorting at High Prices [9] - MEG: Try Shorting at High Prices [9] - PR: Wait - and - See [9] - PF: Wait - and - See [9] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products including the black industry, financial products, light industry products, agricultural products, and soft commodities. It provides investment ratings and market outlooks based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and international events [2][4][6][7][9] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Short - term rebound due to emotional disturbances, with long - term supply increasing, demand remaining low, and port inventories entering a replenishment cycle. Focus on whether the 2509 contract can break through 740 yuan/ton [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Driven by supply - side reform news and Tangshan production restrictions, prices rise. Supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and coal - coke supply [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: "Anti - involution" boosts supply - side sentiment. In the off - season, demand shows a slight rebound, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The overall pattern is high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [2] - **Glass**: There is no substantial improvement in fundamentals. Speculative sentiment is ignited in some areas. In the long - term, demand is difficult to recover significantly. In the short - term, it rebounds slightly [2] - **Soda Ash**: In the long - term, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is weak. In the short - term, the valuation is relatively low, and the price is affected by emotions [2] Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Data reflects China's economic resilience, and market risk - aversion sentiment eases. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and treasury bonds show a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data affect prices. Gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] Light Industry Products - **Pulp**: The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The cost support weakens, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Logs**: Spot prices are stable, supply pressure eases, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on prices [6] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil production decreases, and exports are strong. Domestic oil inventories are rising, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate slightly upward, with palm oil relatively stronger [6] - **Meal Products**: U.S. soybean production is good, and domestic soybean arrivals are large. Meal products are expected to fluctuate slightly downward [6] - **Live Pigs**: Supply is tightening, and prices are rising. Terminal procurement enthusiasm increases, and prices are expected to continue rising [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, and demand shows a structural recovery. Inventory is in a state of adjustment, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [9] - **PX**: Supply and demand are tight in the short - term, and prices follow oil prices [9] - **PTA**: In the medium - term, supply and demand weaken, and prices follow costs in the short - term [9] - **MEG**: Supply pressure increases, and prices are under pressure [9] - **PR and PF**: The market may be stable or weaken, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][2]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 and try to go short on the EC2512 contract above 1650, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies. For the long - term, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Sentiment and Macro Factors - The threat of US tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals led to a 17% overnight increase in New York copper, boosting market bullish sentiment [1]. - Trump's tariff policies, including the postponement of the "reciprocal tariff" implementation to August 1st and the announcement of tariff rates for 14 trading partners, have an impact on the market. The market has digested the negative information, and bullish sentiment is high [2][4]. Shipping Indexes - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% [1]. - On July 4, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; the European route was 1442.5 points, down 0.03%; the US West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.27% [1]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price on July 4 was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50%; the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% [1]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index on July 4 was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3%; the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% [1]. Futures Market - On July 8, the main contract 2508 closed at 2006.2, with a 7.16% increase, a trading volume of 57,700 lots, and an open interest of 35,100 lots, an increase of 536 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, the margin is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3]. PMI and Investor Confidence Index - The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May [1]. - The US June Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [1].

2025年7月9日 星期三 股债 数据体现我国经济韧性,市场避险情绪缓和,建议股指多头持有。市场利率 盘整,国债走势窄幅反弹,国债多头轻仓持有。 黑色 临汾地区部分停产煤矿陆续复产,"反内卷"下成材供应或有望收缩,关注 政策的具体文件落地,需求侧暂无明显增量,螺纹供需弱平衡。 黄金 东南亚产区天气趋于缓和,割胶工作逐步恢复,胶水系需求拖拽,与原料杯 胶价格表现分化。轮胎样本企业产能利用率下行。供需两端矛盾未有明显缓 解,天然橡胶价格仍延续承压。 特朗普延长关税暂缓期,贸易谈判显示乐观情绪,但仍存不确定性。市场对 美联储最早降息时间推至10月,关注本周美联储会议纪要。预计黄金维持高 位震荡。 原木 现货市价格偏稳运行,到港量预计环减,供应中枢下移,供应压力减缓,日 均出库量维持在6.7万方左右,供需矛盾不大,关注原木期货交割对原木价格 的影响。 橡胶 生猪 当前养殖端挺价情绪较强,北方多地生猪走货顺畅,猪价短期或延续涨势, 进入7月后,南方生猪供应预计偏紧,或接棒北方引领新一轮行情上涨。 - 浙江新世纪期货有限公司 - 客服热线:400-700-2828 关注#新世纪期货#微信公众号 了解更多 油粗 美豆种植面 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SCFIS on the European route continues to rise, while Trump's tariff hikes on multiple countries increase the difficulty of short - term market gaming. It is recommended to close all short positions and either participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4]. - The market is filled with a mix of long and short information, and the game is intense. The market is in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% [3]. - On July 4, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.5 points, down 0.03%; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.27% [3]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50%; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% [3]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3%; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% [3]. 3.2 Market Situation and Policy Impact - Trump's tariff hikes on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, further hit re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1. The spot market price range is set, with small price increases to test the market, and the futures market has a slight rebound [4]. - The cease - fire agreement in Gaza has not been reached, the spot freight rate has temporarily stabilized, SCFIS continues to rise, and the market is filled with a mix of long and short information, with intense gaming and a weak and volatile futures market [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term futures market may mainly rebound. Short positions have been recommended to be closed. Risk - takers have been recommended to lightly test long positions below 1300 on the 2510 contract, with stop - loss and take - profit levels set [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back, and then determine the subsequent direction [5]. 3.4 Contract - related Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [5]. - The company's margin for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [5].

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Suggestion to exit short positions and observe [2] - Coking coal and coke: Neutral, observe iron and coal supply trends [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Neutral, expect short-term supply reduction and mild demand decline [2] - Glass: Neutral, short-term valuation is low, observe downstream demand recovery [2] - Stock index futures/options: Suggestion to hold long positions [4] - Treasury bonds: Suggestion to hold long positions with a light position [4] - Gold and silver: Expected to remain in high-level consolidation [4] - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate [6] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate, observe futures delivery impact [6] - Edible oils: Expected to fluctuate weakly, palm oil may be relatively stronger [6] - Meal: Expected to fluctuate downward, observe North American weather and soybean arrivals [6] - Live pigs: Expected to continue rising [7] - Rubber: Expected to fluctuate widely [9] - PX: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [9] - PTA: Suggestion to short at high prices [9] - MEG: Suggestion to short at high prices [9] - Polyester bottle chips and polyester staple fibers: Hold a wait-and-see attitude [9] Core Views - The iron ore market is affected by short-term sentiment, but the medium- to long-term supply-demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [2] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply-side news and production resumption, with weak downstream demand [2] - The steel market is affected by supply-side reduction measures, with mild demand decline and balanced supply and demand in the short term [2] - The glass market lacks substantial positive factors, with high inventory and weak demand [2] - The stock index market is supported by economic resilience and reduced risk aversion, suggesting long positions [4] - The treasury bond market has narrow fluctuations, suggesting long positions with a light position [4] - The gold and silver markets are affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and trade tensions, expected to remain in high-level consolidation [4] - The pulp market has a weak supply-demand pattern, expected to fluctuate [6] - The log market has stable prices, reduced supply pressure, and balanced supply and demand [6] - The edible oil market has sufficient supply and weak demand, expected to fluctuate weakly [6] - The meal market is affected by soybean production and demand, expected to fluctuate downward [6] - The live pig market has strong price support and is expected to continue rising [7] - The rubber market has tight supply, weak demand, and high inventory, expected to fluctuate widely [9] - The PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester markets are affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with different trends [9] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Short-term rebound due to sentiment, medium- to long-term supply increase, demand at a low level, and inventory accumulation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Price increase due to supply-side news, production resumption expected, weak downstream demand [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Supply reduction expected, demand mild decline, supply and demand balanced in the short term [2] - Glass: No substantial positive factors, high inventory, weak demand, short-term valuation low [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: Economic resilience supports the market, risk aversion eases, suggesting long positions [4] - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates are stable, narrow fluctuations, suggesting long positions with a light position [4] - Gold and silver: Affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and trade tensions, expected to remain in high-level consolidation [4] Light Industry - Pulp: Weak supply and demand, cost support weakens, expected to fluctuate [6] - Logs: Stable prices, reduced supply pressure, balanced supply and demand, observe futures delivery impact [6] Agricultural Products - Edible oils: Sufficient supply, weak demand, expected to fluctuate weakly, palm oil may be relatively stronger [6] - Meal: Affected by soybean production and demand, expected to fluctuate downward, observe North American weather and soybean arrivals [6] - Live pigs: Strong price support, expected to continue rising [7] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Tight supply, weak demand, high inventory, expected to fluctuate widely [9] - PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester: Affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with different trends [9]

Group 1: Stock and Bond - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2] - Market interest rates are consolidating, Treasury bonds are rebounding narrowly, and it is advisable to hold light long positions in Treasury bonds [2] Group 2: Coal and Steel - Some shut - down coal mines in Linfen will resume production one after another. Under the "anti - involution", the supply of finished steel is expected to shrink, the futures market rebounds, and raw materials follow the upward trend. Attention should be paid to the implementation of specific policies and demand follow - up [3] Group 3: Gold - Trump extends the tariff suspension period, and the proposed tax rate increase triggers a resurgence of market risk aversion. The market postpones the earliest time for the Fed to cut interest rates to October. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes this week. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level consolidation [3] Group 4: Logs - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply center will shift down, the supply pressure will ease, the average daily outbound volume remains at about 67,000 cubic meters, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on log prices [3] Group 5: Natural Rubber - The weather in Southeast Asian producing areas is improving, rubber tapping work is gradually resuming. The demand for glue series is dragging down, showing a divergence from the price of raw material cup lumps. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is declining. The supply - demand contradiction at both ends has not been significantly alleviated, and the price of natural rubber continues to be under pressure [4] Group 6: Soybean and Bean Meal - The estimated planting area of US soybeans is only slightly reduced, the continuous improvement of weather in the US Midwest boosts the soybean production outlook, and South American soybeans are in a bumper harvest and continue to be exported. About 10 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in July, the oil mill operating rate remains high, the提货量 of oil mills has declined, the bean meal inventory has risen rapidly, and bean meal is in a weak and volatile state [5] Group 7: Oil - related Products - Against the background of geopolitical easing and production increase, oil prices still lack strong positive factors. PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; PTA's supply - demand outlook weakens and it follows cost fluctuations in the short term; MEG's supply - demand weakens and the futures market is under pressure [6] Group 8: Live Pigs - Currently, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding end is strong, the shipment of live pigs in many northern regions is smooth, and the pig price may continue to rise in the short term. After entering July, the supply of live pigs in the south is expected to be tight, which may take over from the north and lead a new round of price increases [7]

2025年7月7日 星期一 股债 数据体现我国经济韧性,市场避险情绪缓和,建议股指多头持有。市场利率 盘整,国债走势窄幅反弹,国债多头轻仓持有。 黑色 临汾地区部分停产煤矿将陆续复产,"反内卷"下成材供应有望收缩,盘面 迎来反弹,原料跟涨,关注政策的具体文件落地以及需求跟进情况。 黄金 油粗 美豆种植面积预估仅下调有限,美中西部天气持续改善提振大豆产量前景, 南美大豆丰产持续出口。7月份进口大豆到港约1000万吨,油厂开机率维持高 位,油厂提货量高位,豆粕库存快速攀升,豆粕短期偏震荡。 譯張 CPEC+加大增产力度施压油价,PX持续去库,跟随油价波动;PTA供需预期转 弱,短期跟随成本波动;MEC供需趋弱,盘面承压。 生猪 市场对美联储降息预期下降,最早降息时间可能推至10月,关注本周美联储 会议纪要:大而美法案通过. 加之7月9日贸易关税暂停最后期限临近,特朗 普关税信函增加市场不确定性,避险情绪回升。预计黄金维持高位震荡。 原木 现货市价格偏稳运行,到港量预计环增,供应压力回升,日均出库量维持在6 万方以上,供需矛盾不大,关注原木期货首次交割对原木价格的影响。 橡胶 东南亚产区天气趋于缓和,割胶工作逐步恢 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Uptrend [4] - CSI 1000: Uptrend [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [5] - Logs: Oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: High-level oscillation [5] - Palm oil: High-level oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: High-level oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [7] - No. 2 soybeans: Oscillation [7] - No. 1 soybeans: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Live pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Rebound [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Try shorting on rallies [9] - MEG: Try shorting on rallies [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market shows short - term sentiment - driven fluctuations, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply - side reform news and production resumption, with the supply expected to increase and the demand to weaken [2]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil market rebounds due to production reduction policy speculation and supply - side reform news, but the overall demand is weak [2]. - The glass market has no substantial positive factors, with inventory at a high level and demand expected to weaken [2]. - The stock index futures and options market shows different trends among different indices, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices considering economic resilience and reduced market risk aversion [2][4]. - The Treasury bond market has a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - The precious metals market, especially gold, is affected by multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and trade policies, and is expected to remain in high - level oscillation [4]. - The pulp and log markets show different supply - demand situations, with pulp having a supply - demand double - weak pattern and logs having increasing supply pressure [5]. - The oil and fat market is affected by factors such as production, export policies, and supply - demand relationships, and is expected to be in high - level oscillation [5]. - The soybean meal and related products market is affected by factors such as planting area, weather, and trade relations, and is expected to be in an oscillatory state [7]. - The live pig market has a short - term upward trend due to supply - side factors and increased downstream demand [7]. - The rubber market is affected by supply - side weather conditions and demand - side capacity utilization, and is expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend [9]. - The polyester - related product market has different trends, with some products following cost fluctuations and some facing supply - demand changes [9]. 3. Summaries According to Related Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The recent price is affected by sentiment. The global shipment and arrival volume have declined but are still at a high level in recent years. There is an expectation of increased shipment later, and the port inventory is in the process of destocking. In the medium - and long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by supply - side reform news and production resumption, the supply is expected to increase. The coke price is under pressure from steel mills, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises has increased [2]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Due to production reduction policy speculation and supply - side reform news, the supply is expected to shrink, and the price rebounds. However, the overall demand is weak, and the total demand is difficult to show an inverse - seasonal performance [2]. - **Glass**: There is no substantial positive factor, with high inventory and expected weakening demand. The short - term valuation is relatively low, and the price is affected by sentiment [2]. Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: Different indices show different trends. The inflow and outflow of funds in different sectors are different. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices considering economic resilience and reduced market risk aversion [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market has a narrow - range rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Affected by central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, trade policies, and geopolitical risks, the gold market is expected to remain in high - level oscillation, and the price of silver is also in a high - level oscillatory state [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost support weakens, the demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand pattern is double - weak. The price is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Logs**: The arrival volume is expected to increase, the supply pressure rises, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the first log futures delivery [5]. Oil and Fats - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: Affected by production, export policies, and supply - demand relationships, the inventory continues to rise, and the market is expected to be in high - level oscillation [5]. Oilseeds and Meals - **Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, No. 2 soybeans, and No. 1 soybeans**: Affected by factors such as planting area, weather, and trade relations, the market is expected to be in an oscillatory state, and different products have different influencing factors [7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The supply - side support is strong, the downstream demand increases, and the price is expected to continue rising [7]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by supply - side weather conditions and demand - side capacity utilization, the inventory shows different trends, and the price is expected to have a wide - range oscillatory trend [9]. Polyester Products - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: Different products have different supply - demand situations. Some follow cost fluctuations, some face supply - demand weakening, and some are affected by downstream inventory and raw material prices, with corresponding trading suggestions [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Date of the report: July 7, 2025 [1] - Report type: Container Shipping Daily Report - Research group: Shipping Research Group Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts, the market has high complexity and uncertainty, with multiple long - and short - term factors intertwined, making it difficult to predict. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4] - The short - term market may rebound, and it is advised to stop losses on short positions. Risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 with stop - loss and take - profit set [5] - In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [5] - For long - term strategies, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for a pullback to stabilize before determining the subsequent direction [5] Group 4: Market Information Freight Index - On July 4, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [3] - The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.9% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.5 points, unchanged from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.3% from the previous period [3] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% from the previous period [3] - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - Eurozone's June manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4); services PMI flash was 50 (2 - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7); composite PMI flash was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2); Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 8.1) [3] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than May and the same as April, back above the critical point [3] - US June Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 52 (same as May, higher than expected 51, 2 - month high); services PMI flash was 53.1 (lower than previous 53.7, higher than expected 52.9, 2 - month low); composite PMI flash was 52.8 (lower than previous 53, higher than expected 52.1, 2 - month low) [3] Market News - The US claims that new tariffs will be imposed starting in August, and the Houthi rebels attacked merchant ships again [2] - Hamas is consulting on a cease - fire proposal for the Gaza Strip, and the US and Israel had a long - term discussion on the Gaza situation, with Israel agreeing to the necessary conditions for a 60 - day cease - fire agreement [6] - US trade data in May showed that imports and exports both shrank, and the trade deficit widened further. The import of consumer goods decreased by $4 billion, and the export of industrial supplies and raw materials declined significantly, with overall exports down 4% [6] Group 5: Contract Information - On July 4, the closing price of the 2508 main contract was 1849.9, down 1.71%, with a trading volume of 47,800 lots and an open interest of 36,400 lots, an increase of 431 lots from the previous day [4] - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 16% [5] - The company's margin for contracts from 2506 to 2604 has been adjusted to 26% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [5]