Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a strong performance with a weekly increase of 7.16%, ranking second among all primary industries [14]. - The optimism in the industrial metals market is driven by expectations of a demand peak in China and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][27]. - Gold is expected to have significant upward potential due to challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve and declining real interest rates [4][50]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 6.32 percentage points [14]. - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals experienced gains, with small metals up 12.02%, new materials up 5.67%, energy metals up 2.89%, precious metals up 7.22%, and industrial metals up 6.95% [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of August 29, LME copper closed at $9,902/ton, up 1.08% week-on-week, while SHFE copper closed at ¥79,410/ton, up 0.91% [34]. Supply is tightening due to maintenance in domestic smelting plants and a reduction in Codelco's production target [34]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,619/ton, down 0.11%, while SHFE aluminum closed at ¥20,740/ton, up 0.53% [37]. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry increased to 44.035 million tons [39]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,814/ton, up 0.30%, while SHFE zinc closed at ¥22,140/ton, down 0.61% [41]. - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $34,950/ton, up 3.26%, and SHFE tin closed at ¥278,650/ton, up 4.78% [46]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: As of August 29, COMEX gold closed at $3,516.10/oz, up 2.89%, and SHFE gold closed at ¥785.12/g, up 1.52% [50]. The report highlights the significant challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence and the potential for further declines in real interest rates, which could drive gold prices higher [4][51]. The demand for gold in China is strong, with net imports through Hong Kong expected to reach 43.923 tons by July 2025, reflecting a 126.81% increase [51].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: GAN_GRU **Model Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU model combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for processing volume-price time-series features and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for encoding time-series features to create a stock selection factor[4][13][41] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **GRU Component**: - Input features include 18 volume-price features such as closing price, opening price, turnover, and turnover rate[14][17][19] - Training data consists of the past 400 days of these features, sampled every 5 trading days, forming a 40x18 matrix to predict cumulative returns over the next 20 trading days[18] - Data preprocessing includes outlier removal and normalization at both time-series and cross-sectional levels[18] - Model architecture: Two GRU layers (128, 128) followed by an MLP (256, 64, 64), with the final output being the predicted return (pRet), which serves as the stock selection factor[22] - Training method: Semi-annual rolling training, with training conducted on June 30 and December 31 each year[18] - Optimization: Adam optimizer, learning rate of 1e-4, IC loss function, early stopping after 10 epochs, and a maximum of 50 training epochs[18] 2. **GAN Component**: - GAN consists of a generator (G) and a discriminator (D)[23] - Generator: Uses LSTM to preserve the time-series nature of the input features, transforming random noise into realistic data samples[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))] $$ where \( z \) represents random noise, \( G(z) \) is the generated data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the discriminator's output probability[24][25] - Discriminator: Uses CNN to process the two-dimensional volume-price time-series features, distinguishing between real and generated data[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{data}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))] $$ where \( x \) is real data, \( D(x) \) is the discriminator's output for real data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the output for generated data[27][29] - Training: Alternating updates of the generator and discriminator parameters until convergence[30] **Model Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU model effectively captures both time-series and cross-sectional features, leveraging the strengths of GAN and GRU for stock selection[4][13][41] --- Model Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Model**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: GAN_GRU Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Derived from the GAN_GRU model, this factor encodes volume-price time-series features to predict stock returns[4][13][41] **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is generated using the output of the GAN_GRU model, which combines GAN-based feature generation and GRU-based time-series encoding[4][13][41] - The factor undergoes industry and market capitalization neutralization, as well as standardization, before being used for testing[22] **Factor Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU factor demonstrates strong predictive power across various industries, with consistent outperformance in recent years[4][13][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Factor**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42]

Summary of Shenhuo Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. operates primarily in the coal and electrolytic aluminum sectors, having transitioned from a pure coal company to include aluminum production since around 2010 [3][6]. Key Business Segments 1. **Electrolytic Aluminum** - Benefiting from low electricity costs in Xinjiang and hydropower resources in Yunnan, with capacities of 800,000 tons and 900,000 tons respectively [2][3]. - Profitability is at historical highs, with Xinjiang's net profit per ton nearing 3,000 RMB and Yunnan's around 2,000 RMB in the first half of 2025 [2][14]. - The industry is shifting from cyclical to dividend stocks, with expectations of stable profits and increased dividend payouts [2][20]. 2. **Coal Business** - Focused on smokeless coal in Henan, with a production capacity of approximately 7.2 million tons [2][15]. - Benefiting from a rebound in coking coal prices, maintaining profitability in 2025 [2][17]. - Plans to expand coal-electricity integration projects, which could significantly enhance profitability if the coal market remains bullish [2][15]. 3. **Aluminum Foil** - Facing challenges due to overcapacity, leading to average profitability [2][18]. - The company is cautious about expanding its aluminum foil project in Yunnan [2][18]. Financial Performance - The company achieved an annualized profit of approximately 5 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, with expectations to reach 6 billion RMB in 2026 [2][24]. - The 2022 peak profit was over 7 billion RMB, with significant contributions from both coal and electrolytic aluminum sectors [8][24]. - The potential for increased dividends to 50% could elevate the company's market value to between 50 billion and 60 billion RMB [4][24]. Market Dynamics - The electrolytic aluminum sector is experiencing a transition in valuation logic from PE to dividend yield, driven by reduced capital expenditures and stable cash flows [21]. - The market is increasingly recognizing the value of companies with high dividend payouts, as seen with peers like Zhongfu and China Hongqiao [21][23]. Geographical Advantages - Xinjiang's proximity to major coal sources and efficient transportation enhances coal supply [4][5]. - Yunnan's abundant hydropower resources provide a competitive edge for green aluminum production [4][9]. Future Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to continue its positive trajectory, with a focus on dividend yield rather than just price fluctuations [20]. - Shenhuo's strategic positioning and operational efficiencies suggest significant growth potential and investment attractiveness [24][25]. Additional Insights - The company is actively managing its supply chain, particularly in terms of self-sufficiency in anodes, which is expected to stabilize operations [12]. - The impact of alumina price fluctuations is significant, with expectations of recovery in 2025 as prices decrease from over 5,000 RMB to around 3,000 RMB [13]. This comprehensive overview highlights Shenhuo Co., Ltd.'s strategic positioning, financial performance, and market dynamics, indicating a favorable investment opportunity in the current landscape.

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.49% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 4.18% during the week of August 18-22 [2][3] - The SW Nonferrous Metals Index saw a gain of 1.33%, while COMEX gold and silver prices increased by 1.05% and 2.26%, respectively [2][3] Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices showed mixed movements: LME aluminum +0.73%, copper +0.50%, zinc +0.32%, lead +0.56%, nickel -1.45%, and tin +0.70% [2][3] - The SMM imported copper concentrate index reported a decrease of $3.47/ton to $-41.15/ton, while the copper rod enterprises' operating rate rose to 71.80%, up by 1.20 percentage points [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 11,000 tons, totaling 596,000 tons, indicating a slight increase in production and improved demand expectations [3] - Recommended companies in the industrial metals sector include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Minmetals Resources, China Nonferrous Mining, and others [3] Energy Metals - Cobalt raw material imports continue to decline, suggesting a potential price surge for cobalt, while lithium supply disruptions remain a concern [4] - Carbonate lithium prices have rebounded due to increased market activity, with expectations for a strong short-term performance [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to strengthen as domestic inventory continues to deplete, with stable price increases for cobalt sulfate [4] - Recommended companies in the energy metals sector include Cangge Mining, Huayou Cobalt, and others [4] Precious Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has positively influenced gold prices, with the People's Bank of China continuing to increase gold reserves for nine consecutive months [5] - Silver prices are also rising due to its industrial properties and recovery dynamics [5] - Recommended companies in the precious metals sector include Shandong Gold, Tongguan Gold, and others, with a focus on potential opportunities if gold prices stabilize above $3,500/oz [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that thermal coal prices are rebounding, aiming for a target of 750 CNY per ton, with a current price of 704 CNY per ton as of August 22, 2025, reflecting a 15.6% increase from the lowest price of 609 CNY per ton earlier this year [4][5] - The report emphasizes that both thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, with expectations for further price recovery [5][13] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Market - As of August 22, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 704 CNY/ton, with a 15.6% increase from the year's lowest price of 609 CNY/ton [4] - The operating rate of 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81.7%, indicating a relatively low supply level [4] - Port inventories have decreased by 29.82% from the highest level of 3,316.3 million tons earlier this year to 2,327.4 million tons [4] - The daily consumption of coal remains high during the summer, with the methanol operating rate at 80.65%, reflecting strong demand [4] Coking Coal Market - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port is 1,610 CNY/ton, rebounding from a low of 1,230 CNY/ton in early July, with a significant increase of 61.61% in futures prices [4][5] - The report notes a tightening supply expectation due to regulatory measures on overproduction in coal mines [5] Investment Logic - The report suggests that the current thermal coal price has surpassed the second target price of around 700 CNY, with expectations to reach the third target price of 750 CNY, which is the breakeven point for coal and power generation companies [5][13] - Coking coal prices are expected to be influenced more by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][13] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment lines in the coal sector: 1. Cycle logic: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yancoal 2. Dividend logic: Companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Companies like Shenhua Holdings and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Companies like Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy [6][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a slow recovery in supply, with coal prices continuing to rise. The port coal price increased by 6 CNY/ton week-on-week, reaching 704 CNY/ton [3][13] - The supply side is constrained due to adverse weather conditions affecting production, particularly in the Ordos region, where capacity utilization has decreased by 1.42 percentage points [3][13] - Demand remains strong due to high temperatures, with daily coal consumption in coastal and inland power plants increasing by 11.2 and 14.8 thousand tons respectively [3][21] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, emphasizing their high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yields [70] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Supply is tightening again, with port inventories decreasing and prices rising [3][13] - As of August 20, capacity utilization in the Sanxi region decreased to 88.57%, with a weekly production drop of 190 thousand tons [19] - Daily coal consumption in coastal power plants reached 249.6 thousand tons, up 11.2 thousand tons week-on-week [21] - Port inventories in northern regions decreased by 421 thousand tons week-on-week [25] 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal production recovery is limited, with capacity utilization increasing by 0.49 percentage points due to the resumption of previously halted mines [4][69] - The average daily customs clearance at Ganqimaodu port increased to 1212 trucks, up 132 trucks week-on-week [37] - Coking coal prices at the port remained stable at 1610 CNY/ton [34] 3. Coke - The seventh round of price increases for coke has been implemented, with an increase of 50-55 CNY/ton [46] - The overall inventory of coke remains low, with production rates showing some variability [53] - The average profit per ton of coke increased to 23 CNY/ton, up 3 CNY/ton week-on-week [49] 4. Investment Focus - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, with a focus on companies with strong cash flow and high dividend yields [70] - The report suggests monitoring the recovery of coal production, iron water output, and market conditions during the upcoming military parade [69][70]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which is likely to support aluminum prices [6] - Downstream aluminum processing rates are recovering, indicating a potential increase in demand as the industry approaches the peak season [9] - Current low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply are expected to provide price support [9] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of August 22, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2,622.0 per ton, while the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is ¥20,630.0 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of ¥140.0 per ton [19] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is ¥20,750.0 per ton, up ¥70.0 from the previous week [19] 2. Production - In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production reached 3.721 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.2 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 16.8 million tons [52] - The alumina production in July 2025 was 7.650 million tons, up 39.2 million tons month-on-month and 80.8 million tons year-on-year [52] 3. Inventory - As of August 21, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 596,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 900 tons [7] - The aluminum rod inventory in major consumption areas is 124,500 tons, down 1,400 tons week-on-week, indicating a declining trend [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 are as follows: China Hongqiao at ¥2.62, Tianshan Aluminum at ¥1.12, Shenhuo Co. at ¥2.13, China Aluminum at ¥0.91, and Yun Aluminum at ¥2.00 [5] 5. Demand - Downstream enterprises are increasing their inventory levels in anticipation of upcoming peak season orders, although the overall demand remains in a recovery phase [7] - The aluminum processing industry is experiencing a gradual revival, with the operating rate recorded at 50.5% as of August 21 [61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting potential price increases for various metals due to rising demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions [2][4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with improving seasonal demand, is likely to drive up industrial metal prices [2][4]. - It identifies specific companies as key investment opportunities, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining, among others [2][4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that the SMM import copper concentrate index decreased by $3.47 per ton week-on-week, indicating stable demand with downstream purchases primarily driven by necessity [2]. - Aluminum production has slightly increased due to the commissioning of replacement capacity, and companies are beginning to stockpile for the upcoming peak season [2]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory stands at 596,000 tons, with a weekly reduction of 11,000 tons [2]. Energy Metals - Cobalt supply continues to decrease, leading to expectations of a significant price increase, while lithium prices are expected to remain strong due to market dynamics [3]. - The report highlights that cobalt prices are likely to rise as domestic inventory continues to deplete [3]. - Nickel prices are also expected to increase due to low supply and rising demand from precursor manufacturers [3]. Precious Metals - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's comments have bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts, which is likely to support gold prices [4]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for nine consecutive months, further supporting the bullish outlook for gold [4]. - The report suggests that if gold prices stabilize above $3,500 per ounce, it could present a significant investment opportunity [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings - Zijin Mining: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.21 CNY, with a PE ratio of 17, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.63 CNY, with a PE ratio of 18, rated as "Buy" [4]. - China Nonferrous Mining: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.77 CNY, with a PE ratio of 11, rated as "Buy" [4].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.428 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.904 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.797 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year and 12.1% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.196 billion yuan, which is a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year and a significant increase of 68.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company’s aluminum production and sales volume for the first half of 2025 reached 871,100 tons and 871,400 tons, respectively, both up 16.2% and 16.3% year-on-year, achieving over 51% of the annual plan [2] - The comprehensive selling price of aluminum was 16,269 yuan per ton, up 4.2% year-on-year, while the sales cost was 12,284 yuan per ton, up 6.4% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit of 3,986 yuan per ton, down 1.8% year-on-year [2] - The coal production and sales volume for the first half of 2025 were 3.7078 million tons and 3.7275 million tons, respectively, up 14.9% and 18.3% year-on-year [2] - The comprehensive selling price of coal was 773 yuan per ton, down 30.6% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 91 yuan per ton, down 72.2% year-on-year [2] Regional Performance - The net profit from the Xinjiang coal power and Yunnan Shenhuo regions was 1.235 billion yuan and 983 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 3.2% and 79.1%, indicating significant profit growth in the Yunnan region due to increased production capacity [2] Investment Income and Expenses - Investment income for the first half of 2025 was 332 million yuan, up 116.2% year-on-year, with 240 million yuan coming from joint ventures and associates, an increase of 168 million yuan [3] - Operating expenses rose to 186 million yuan, up 48.8% year-on-year, primarily due to losses from a subsidiary's settlement and fines incurred during the period [3] Future Outlook - The company adjusted its aluminum and coal price assumptions, projecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.16 billion yuan, 5.71 billion yuan, and 6.37 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3] - With improving macroeconomic sentiment and seasonal expectations, aluminum prices are expected to rise, and coal segment profitability may recover in the second half of the year [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent movements of social security funds in the A-share market, revealing that they have entered the top ten circulating shareholders of 71 new stocks in the second quarter of 2025 [1] - Su Shi Testing has the highest number of new social security fund holdings, with 3 new holdings, while Shanghai Jahwa and Xin Qiang Lian each have 2 new holdings [1] - The article provides a detailed list of companies that have seen new social security fund investments, including their respective shareholding numbers, quantities, and market values [2][3][4][5] Group 2 - Specific companies mentioned include Su Shi Testing with 1,486.20 thousand shares valued at 213 million yuan, Shanghai Jahwa with 1,150.51 thousand shares valued at 242 million yuan, and Xin Qiang Lian with 555.56 thousand shares valued at 199 million yuan [2][3] - Other companies with new social security fund holdings include Hengdian East Magnetic, Nuofushin, and Baichu Electronics, each with 1 new holding, along with their respective share quantities and market values [2][3][4] - The article lists a total of 71 companies that have received new investments from social security funds, indicating a diverse range of industries from agriculture to electronics and pharmaceuticals [2][3][4][5]