Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][36] Core Views - The company's net profit is expected to decline by 27% in 2024, with revenue projected at 38.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [6][28] - The decline in profitability is primarily due to a drop in both volume and price in the coal sector, alongside rising costs [6][7] - The aluminum smelting segment is expected to see stable profits, with a projected gross profit of 4,014 yuan per ton in 2024 [7][28] - The company is positioned to benefit from structural reforms in the supply side of both the aluminum and coal industries, which are currently in a favorable cycle [3][28] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 38.37 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.31 billion yuan, and a cash flow from operating activities of 7.72 billion yuan [6][34] - The coal production is projected to be 6.74 million tons, a decrease of 430,000 tons year-on-year, leading to increased costs [6][28] - The average coal selling price is expected to drop by 74 yuan per ton, resulting in a significant reduction in gross profit from the coal segment [6][28] Aluminum Segment - The aluminum segment is expected to maintain stable profitability, with costs at 12,000 yuan per ton and a gross profit of 4,014 yuan per ton [7][28] - The Xinjiang Shenhui subsidiary remains the most profitable, with a projected net profit of 2.06 billion yuan from the sale of 810,000 tons of aluminum in 2024 [28] Future Projections - For 2025-2027, revenue is projected to grow to 40.56 billion yuan, with net profits increasing to 5.54 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.7% [3][34] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 2.46 yuan in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.6, 7.5, and 7.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][34]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 神火股份(000933.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 26 日 买入（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：18.77 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 神火股份 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 10.14 | 7.46 | 19.34 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 9.97 | 4.87 | 20.68 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《神火股份：回购引导信心，盈利能 力或将改善》，2025.1.5 2.《神火股份：业绩符合预期，中期股 利加强投资回报》， ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 神火股份(000933.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 26 日 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：18.77 证券分析师 翟堃 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 神火股份 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 10.14 | 7.46 | 19.34 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 9.97 | 4.87 | 20.68 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《神火股份：回购引导信心，盈利能 力或将改善》，2025.1.5 2.《神火股份：业绩符合预期，中期股 利加强投资回报》， ...

Core Viewpoint - Investing in high-dividend companies may be a direction to outperform the index in the short term, with a focus on state-owned enterprise dividend ETFs showing slight upward movement [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of March 26, 2025, the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) decreased by 0.05%, with component stocks showing mixed performance [1]. - The State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) increased by 0.09%, with the latest price reported at 1.09 yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF reached 51.1486 million yuan, marking a one-month high [2]. Group 2: Component Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index accounted for 15.22% of the index, with notable stocks including COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937) [3]. - The performance of key stocks varied, with COSCO Shipping Holdings down by 0.68% and Shanxi Coal International up by 1.07% [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - East Asia Securities suggests that focusing on high-dividend companies based on fundamentals may lead to short-term outperformance [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market rhythm and industry progress, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence and robotics, which are expected to see growth [2]. - Short-term investment opportunities are highlighted in marine economy, military industry, and consumer sectors with clear policy expectations [2].

神火股份(000933)2024年报点评：电解铝成本上行 拖累公司业绩 铝板块利润修复空间大 公司煤炭产量有所下滑，铝产品产量稳中向好。2024 年，公司主要产品基本产销平衡，公司生产 铝产品162.85 万吨，同比+7.28%，销售162.89 万吨，同比+6.65%，分别完成年度计划的108.57%、 108.59%；生产煤炭673.90 万吨，同比-6%，销售670.13 万吨，同比-7.5%，分别完成年度计划的 94.92%、94.38%；生产碳素产品43.83 万吨，同比-20%，销售44.54 万吨，同比-16%，分别完成年度计 划的98.12%、89.68%；生产铝箔9.68 万吨，同比+20%，销售9.79 万吨，同比+20%，分别完成年度计划 的99.30%、100.45%。 投资建议：考虑煤炭和氧化铝价格下行，我们预计2025-2027 年实现归母净利润分别为55.6 亿元、 63.9 亿元、70.8 亿元（25-26 年前值为58.6 亿元、67.2 亿元），同比+29.2%、+14.8%、+10.9%。公司 分为煤炭和电解铝两个主要板块，我们分别根据可比公司对两块业务采用分部估值，根据 ...

煤炭量价齐跌致业绩承压，电解铝业务盈利略有改善（1）煤炭业务：产销量方面，公司煤炭核定 产能855 万吨/年，2024 年公司煤炭产量673.9 万吨，同比-6%，其中无烟煤/贫煤、贫瘦煤产量 294.4/379.6 万吨，同比+0.5%/-10.5%；2024 年公司煤炭销量670.1 万吨，同比-7.5%，其中无烟煤/贫 煤、贫瘦煤销量290.2/379.9 万吨，同比-2.8%/-10.8%。售价方面，2024 年公司吨煤综合售价1019.3 元/ 吨，同比-7.8%。成本方面，受煤炭产量下滑影响，2024年公司吨煤综合成本849.4 元/吨，同比 +33.5%。盈利方面，受煤价下滑及成本提升影响，2024 年公司吨煤毛利169.8 元/吨，同比-63.8%。 （2）电解铝业务： 产销量方面，公司电解铝产能170 万吨/年（其中新疆煤电80 万吨/年、云南神火90 万吨/年）， 2024 年公司铝产销量162.9/162.9 万吨，同比+7.3%/6.7%；售价方面，2024 年公司吨铝售价15956.4 元/ 吨，同比-3.7%；成本方面，2024 年公司吨铝成本为11949.4 万吨，同比-5.2% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4] Core Views - The company's performance has been pressured by declining coal prices and sales, but there is potential for growth in coal and aluminum segments, along with improved dividend returns for investors [4][5] - For 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 38.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 27.07% to 4.31 billion yuan [4][5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 5.81 billion, 6.46 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 34.9%, 11.2%, and 8.5% [4][5] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a coal production of 6.739 million tons, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, with a total coal sales volume of 6.701 million tons, down 7.5% [5][6] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1,019.3 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year, while the comprehensive cost per ton increased by 33.5% to 849.4 yuan [5][6] - The aluminum segment showed a production increase of 7.3% year-on-year, with a total output of 1.629 million tons in 2024, and a slight improvement in profitability due to cost reductions [5][6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates an increase in coal production to approximately 7.2 million tons in 2025, supported by technical upgrades at the Liuhe coal mine [6] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was 41.78%, an increase of 11.3 percentage points from 2023, resulting in a current dividend yield of 4.1% based on the closing price on March 24, 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [7][15]. Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by rising costs in the electrolytic aluminum sector, while there is significant potential for profit recovery in the aluminum segment [6][7]. - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 38.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 27.07% to 4.307 billion yuan [6][7]. - The report highlights that the company’s investment income increased significantly, contributing to the overall profit despite the decline in core business performance [6][7]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 38.373 billion yuan, up 1.99% year-on-year - Net profit: 4.307 billion yuan, down 27.07% year-on-year - Q4 performance: Total revenue of 10.059 billion yuan, up 11.82% year-on-year, but net profit down 57.38% year-on-year [6][7]. - **Future Projections**: - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 5.563 billion yuan, 6.387 billion yuan, and 7.084 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 29.2%, 14.8%, and 10.9% [6][7][8]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The report provides a target price of 22.2 yuan for 2025, with a current price of 19.44 yuan, indicating potential upside [6][7]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8, 7, and 6 respectively [6][7]. - **Production and Sales**: - In 2024, aluminum product production was 1.6285 million tons, up 7.28% year-on-year, while coal production decreased by 6% to 6.739 million tons [6][7]. - The company maintained a balanced production and sales strategy across its main products [6][7]. Market Context - The report notes that the domestic prices for electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased by 6.6% and 37% respectively, while coal prices saw a decline, impacting the company's profitability [6][7]. - The company’s strategic focus on its core business and divestment from non-core assets is expected to enhance its financial performance moving forward [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in both coal prices and sales, but there is potential for growth in coal and aluminum segments, along with improved dividend returns for investors [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of 38.37 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 27.07% to 4.31 billion yuan [4][5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 5.81 billion, 6.46 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 34.9%, 11.2%, and 8.5% [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a coal production of 6.739 million tons, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, with a total coal sales volume of 6.701 million tons, down 7.5% year-on-year [5][6] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1,019.3 yuan per ton, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year, while the comprehensive cost per ton increased by 33.5% to 849.4 yuan [5][6] - The aluminum segment showed a production and sales volume of 1.629 million tons, with a slight increase of 7.3% and 6.7% year-on-year respectively, and a selling price of 15,956.4 yuan per ton, down 3.7% year-on-year [5][6] Future Outlook - The company expects coal production to increase to approximately 7.2 million tons in 2025 following technical upgrades at the Liuhe coal mine, which will also help reduce costs [6] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 41.78% in 2024, up by 11.3 percentage points from 2023, resulting in a current dividend yield of 4.1% based on the closing price on March 24, 2025 [6][7]

Summary of Shenhuo Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenhuo Co., Ltd. - **Fiscal Year**: 2024 - **Key Financials**: - Pre-tax profit: 3.3 billion CNY - Total profit: 6.4 billion CNY - Asset scale: 4.3 billion CNY - Dividend per share: 10.8 CNY, accounting for 42% of net profit [3][5][6] Financial Performance - **Overall Performance**: Financial results met market expectations with a total profit of 6.4 billion CNY and an asset scale of 4.3 billion CNY [3][5] - **Tax Rate**: Current tax rate at 35%, expected to decrease to 25% in the future [3][4] - **Dividends**: Maintained at 10.8 CNY per share, with a commitment to not drop below 30% of net profit [6] Business Segment Performance - **Coal Segment**: - Core subsidiaries (Xinneng and Xinlong) reported total profits of 940 million CNY, impacted by production and price fluctuations [3][9][20] - Anticipated full production of 7.2 million tons in 2025, with costs expected to decrease but prices may limit profitability [3][20] - **Aluminum Segment**: - Guangxi Longzhou Xinxing Aluminum benefited from rising alumina prices, achieving profits of 618 million CNY [3][9] - Investment income from Xinde Group and Xinzheng Coal Power contributed approximately 300 million CNY and 90 million CNY, respectively [3][9] - **Investment Income**: - Q4 2024 investment income exceeded 300 million CNY, with Longzhou Aluminum contributing 200 million CNY [3][7] Challenges and Risks - **Aluminum Processing**: Facing weak profits due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and intense competition [19] - **Coal Price Volatility**: The coal sector is cyclical, with profits fluctuating significantly year-on-year [20] - **Cost Pressures**: Rising costs in coal production and potential price declines could impact overall profitability [20] Future Outlook - **Capital Expenditure**: - Ongoing projects in Xinjiang (400,000 tons) and Yunnan (110,000 tons) expected to conclude in H1 2025, with total investment around 2 billion CNY [15][16] - **Debt Management**: - Debt ratio has decreased to below 50%, with plans for further reduction [14] - **Market Conditions**: - Anticipated economic recovery may stabilize coal prices, with a projected profit margin of around 100 CNY per ton necessary for normal operations [20] Additional Insights - **R&D Adjustments**: Adjustments in R&D expenses were made due to discrepancies in expense allocation across subsidiaries, with no overall profit impact [13] - **Asset Disposal**: Losses from small coal mine resource integration amounted to 100 million CNY, with impairment provisions affecting profits by over 90 million CNY [3][12][9] Conclusion Shenhuo Co., Ltd. demonstrated a solid financial performance in 2024, with strategic plans for future growth despite facing challenges in the coal and aluminum sectors. The company is focused on managing costs, optimizing production, and maintaining a stable dividend policy while navigating market fluctuations.