Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [4]. Core Insights - The poultry prices have stopped declining and are rebounding, supported by the release of the "Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power Plan" [4]. - The report highlights that the industry is currently at a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In March 2025, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 2.44%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 0.07% [7][10]. - The animal health sector showed the highest growth, while the seed industry faced declines [10]. Livestock Farming Data Tracking - In March 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.75 yuan/kg, with a slight month-on-month decline of 0.78% and a year-on-year decline of 0.03% [15][22]. - The average price of white feather broiler chicks was 2.88 yuan/chick, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.66 yuan/chick [24][27]. - The report notes a rebound in chicken prices due to improved market conditions and reduced cost pressures [27][29]. Policy Insights - The "Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power Plan (2024-2035)" emphasizes the need for independent innovation in seed industry and the implementation of major biological breeding projects [31][32]. - The plan aims for significant progress in agricultural modernization by 2027 and substantial achievements by 2035 [31]. Major Agricultural Product Price Tracking - The report provides insights into the price trends of key agricultural products, indicating a strong fluctuation in corn and wheat prices [33][34]. Industry Dynamics and Company News - The report tracks significant events in the industry, including government initiatives to support agricultural development and the performance of listed companies in the sector [39][41].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors, particularly recommending companies in the home furnishing, new tobacco, light consumer goods, and paper packaging industries [5][23][24][26]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to stabilize with the introduction of consumer subsidies, leading to improved order intake for many companies [5][19]. - New tobacco products, particularly from Smoore International, are anticipated to benefit from market expansion despite tariff challenges [23]. - The paper packaging industry is facing high pulp inventory levels, which may slow down profit recovery, but consolidation efforts are expected to improve competition [24]. - The light consumer goods sector, especially in pet products, is likely to see accelerated domestic brand growth due to increased tariffs on imports [26]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales are improving as consumer subsidies are rolled out, with expectations for further stimulus policies [5][19]. - Companies like Gujia Home and Sophia are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential [5][19]. - Export challenges due to increased tariffs are noted, but companies with strong domestic sales channels are expected to perform well [5][19]. New Tobacco - Smoore International is positioned to adapt to tariff impacts due to its production capabilities in Indonesia [23]. - The electronic cigarette market is expected to maintain consumer demand despite potential price increases from tariffs [23]. - The overall market for compliant brands is projected to expand, providing growth opportunities [23]. Paper Packaging - High pulp inventory levels are suppressing price increases, with a slow recovery in profitability expected [24][25]. - The acquisition of Zhongliang Packaging by Aorijin is expected to enhance competitive dynamics in the industry [24]. - The introduction of new consumer electronics subsidies is anticipated to benefit leading packaging companies [24]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food market is expected to see a shift towards domestic brands as tariffs on imports increase [26]. - Companies like Guibao Pet are positioned to capture market share due to their competitive pricing and product quality [26]. - The AI glasses segment is highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations to focus on key supply chain players [26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent increase in tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese imports, along with China's retaliatory measures, is expected to positively impact domestic agricultural product prices, particularly pork prices [5][15] - The average price of live pigs in China as of April 6, 2025, is 14.60 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.05 yuan/kg, indicating a gradual upward trend in pork prices supported by improved demand and reduced supply pressure [6][18] - The report recommends actively allocating investments in the pig farming sector due to its defensive attributes amid macroeconomic shocks and the strengthening investment logic [6][28] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The US has imposed a 34% tariff on Chinese imports, leading to a cumulative tariff rate of 54% on Chinese goods, which is expected to benefit domestic agricultural prices [5][15] - The report notes that the dependency of key agricultural products on imports from the US is significant, with soybeans and beef having high foreign dependency rates of 81.49% and 25.22%, respectively [16][17] Weekly Market Performance - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 1.79 percentage points, with the agricultural index rising by 1.51% during the week [32][34] - Key stocks such as Huisheng Biological and Jinhai Biological saw significant gains, with increases of 39.96% and 18.80%, respectively [32][36] Price Tracking - As of April 4, 2025, the average price of live pigs is 14.60 yuan/kg, with a slight increase from the previous week, while the price of piglets has risen to 37.08 yuan/kg [39][40] - The report indicates that the price of beef has also increased, reaching 66.38 yuan/kg, reflecting a positive trend in meat prices [43][46] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the pig farming sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [7][28] - In the feed sector, companies like Haida Group and New Hope are recommended due to their potential benefits from the recovery in livestock and poultry production [28]

Core Insights - The "pet economy" in China is continuing to grow, with pet numbers expected to reach 120 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - The pet consumption market is expanding, with the urban pet consumption market projected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024, where pet food accounts for 52.8% of the market share [1] - The domestic pet food market is fragmented, with a CR10 market concentration of only 19.96%, indicating potential for domestic brands to break through [1][2] Market Dynamics - The leading domestic pet food brand, Mai Fu Di, is facing significant quality control issues, leading to numerous consumer complaints [4][5] - In 2024, the sales market share of domestic brands in the pet food sector is only 15%, with Mai Fu Di being a notable player, achieving sales of 2.016 billion yuan [2][4] - Consumer trust in domestic brands is still recovering from past incidents, which may hinder the high-end strategy of brands like Mai Fu Di [5] Product Development and Strategy - Mai Fu Di is attempting to transition to high-end products, launching premium lines such as "Fuleijiate" and "Wangzhenchun" [8] - The pricing of Mai Fu Di's high-end products is competitive with international brands, but market acceptance remains low [8] - The company is investing heavily in new production lines for high-end pet food, with 367 million yuan allocated for this purpose and an additional 560 million yuan for a project aimed at producing 100,000 tons of high-end pet food annually [8][9] Financial Considerations - In 2023, Mai Fu Di's total production was only 17.81 tons, raising questions about the necessity of the new high-capacity project [9] - The majority of Mai Fu Di's revenue comes from its flagship brand, accounting for approximately 80% of its self-owned brand sales [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the pig farming sector shows value for low-positioning, with a recovery in profitability expected alongside consumer demand recovery. The current valuation of the pig farming sector is at a relatively low level, indicating potential for investment [6][25] - The report emphasizes the ongoing support for pig prices from the entry of supplementary breeding in Northeast China, which is expected to stabilize prices in the short term [4][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Recent supplementary breeding has entered Northeast China, which may support pig prices. As of March 14, the national average price for live pigs was 14.57 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.83% [4][11] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 142,500 pigs, down 90 pigs from the previous week, indicating weak demand [4][11] Weekly Perspective - The pig farming sector's low-positioning value is becoming apparent, with a recovery in profitability expected as consumer demand rebounds. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [6][25] - The pet food market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.64% from 2025 to 2028, driven by rising consumer spending and domestic brands gaining market share [6][25] Market Performance (March 10-14) - The agriculture index outperformed the market by 1.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.39% and the agriculture index rising by 2.84% [31][33] - Key stocks that led the gains included Xue Rong Biological, Western Animal Husbandry, and Zhong Ji Health, with increases of 43.95%, 18.29%, and 13.13% respectively [31][35] Price Tracking (March 10-14) - The average price of live pigs was 14.65 yuan/kg, up 1.03% from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 33.87 yuan/kg, up 3.39% from the previous week [41][43] - The average price of white feather chickens was 7.11 yuan/kg, up 7.89% from the previous week, while the average price of yellow feather chickens was 10.45 yuan/kg, reflecting a price increase [40][46][47] Key News (March 10-14) - The USDA's March report adjusted global corn and wheat production upwards while lowering rice production forecasts. Corn production was increased by 1.7 million tons to 1.214 billion tons, and wheat production was increased by 3.44 million tons to 797 million tons [36]

Investment Rating - The report provides a buy rating for Hai Da Group (002311.SZ) with an "A" rating, and a buy rating for Sheng Nong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) with a "B" rating. Other companies like Guai Bao Pet (301498.SZ) and Zhong Chong Shares (002891.SZ) are rated as "A" for increase, while Tang Ren Shen (002567.SZ), Shen Nong Group (605296.SH), Ju Xing Nong Mu (603477.SH), and New Hope (000876.SZ) are rated as "B" for increase [1]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing a seasonal decline in pig prices, yet they remain within a profitable range. The report indicates that the pig price in the off-season is still maintaining profitability [2][4]. - The report highlights that the pig farming industry is entering a profitability cycle starting from Q2 2024, despite the average debt ratio still needing to decrease significantly. The market's expectations regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability may be overly pessimistic [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a recovery in the feed industry due to lower raw material prices and improving breeding conditions, particularly for Hai Da Group, which is expected to see an upward trend in its operational fundamentals [5]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of March 7, 2025, the average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan are 14.85, 15.32, and 14.39 yuan per kilogram, reflecting increases of 0.07%, 0.99%, and 0.35% respectively. The average pork price is 20.81 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.24% [3][23]. - The average wholesale price for piglets is 28.00 yuan per kilogram, up by 2.75%, while the average price for two-yuan sows remains stable at 32.47 yuan per kilogram [3][23]. Poultry Farming - The weekly price for white feather broiler chickens is 6.59 yuan per kilogram, up by 8.03%, and the price for broiler chicks is 2.54 yuan per chick, up by 10.92%. However, the breeding profit is negative at -1.90 yuan per chick [31]. Feed Processing - The total industrial feed production in 2024 is reported at 31,503.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous year. The production of pig feed is 14,391.3 million tons, down by 3.9% [34]. Market Performance - For the week of March 3 to March 9, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.39%, while the agricultural sector rose by 1.04%, ranking 20th among sectors. The top-performing sub-industries include food and feed additives, animal health, fruit and vegetable processing, pig farming, and chicken farming [2][17].

行 业 研 究 行业周报 [Table_MainInfo] 加力支持以旧换新，关注扩大内需细分领域机会 | ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 | 分析师： | 袁艺博 | SAC NO： | 年 | 月 | 日 | S1150521120002 | 2025 | 3 | 10 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Author] | 证券分析师 | [Table_Summary] | 投资要点： | 袁艺博 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 行业要闻 | 022-23839135 | yuanyb@bhzq.com | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | （1）纸厂惊现千元涨价函，上一次还是两年前。 | [Tab ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][5][39] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recovery potential of undervalued leading breeding companies and the long-term upward trend in rubber prices [1][3][14] - Key recommendations include focusing on high ROE value stocks in the breeding sector and identifying growth opportunities in the pet food market [1][3][39] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - For pets: Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Rui Pu Biological [1][3][16] - For breeding: Mu Yuan Co., Hua Tong Co., and Wen's Food Group [1][3][39] - For rubber: Hainan Rubber, a leading global player in natural rubber cultivation and processing [1][3][22] Breeding Sector - The breeding sector is expected to maintain low volatility in production capacity, with overall supply-demand balance remaining stable [1][17][39] - Specific insights include: - Swine prices were reported at 14.46 CNY/kg, down 8.88% month-on-month, with a slight increase in average weight [2][25] - Poultry supply is at a low, with potential demand recovery as macroeconomic conditions improve [30][35] Planting Chain - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies with R&D and integration advantages in the seed industry [1][19][39] - Key recommendations include: - Hainan Rubber, with significant production and processing capabilities [1][22] Market Trends - The report notes that the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index increased by 0.20% in February, underperforming compared to the broader market [2][5] - The report also highlights the strong performance of specific stocks, such as Tianye Co. and Dayu Biological, with notable increases in their stock prices [2][5]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Insights - The pig sector shows slight inertia growth in breeding stock, highlighting the undervaluation and expectation gap in the sector [3][16] - The poultry sector emphasizes the fundamentals of white chickens and the marginal changes in breeding imports [17][18] - The feed sector recommends Hai Da Group due to its fundamental turning point and relatively low valuation [21] - The pet sector sees a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports [25][26] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of March 8, the national average pig price is 14.68 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week, with a profit of approximately 154 CNY per head for self-breeding farms [1][15] - The supply side shows an average market weight of 127.06 kg for pigs, with a 4.23% share of pigs over 150 kg, indicating a potential seasonal decline in prices due to weak demand [2][15] - The sector is characterized by low valuations, with major companies like Muyuan and Wens below 2000 CNY per head, suggesting a historical low valuation [3][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector faces uncertainty in breeding imports due to outbreaks of avian influenza, leading to a significant drop in domestic breeding stock [4][17] - Chicken prices have rebounded, with the average price for live chickens in Shandong at 3.30 CNY per bird, supported by positive restocking sentiment [4][18] - Investment recommendations include Shengnong Development and attention to Yisheng and Minhe [5][18] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its market share increase and expected improvement in the aquaculture feed market after a prolonged downturn [21] - Prices for various aquatic products have shown significant increases, indicating a potential recovery in the aquaculture sector [21] Pet Sector - Domestic brands like Guibao Pet are expanding their market share through independent brand operations, targeting different price segments [25][26] - Pet food exports have seen a substantial increase, with a year-on-year growth of 26% in volume and 22% in value, reflecting a robust market [25][26] Agricultural Technology - The application of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing agricultural productivity and competitiveness among leading seed companies [23][24] - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with policies supporting the development of smart agriculture and drone applications [23][24]

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·饲料 乖宝宠物（301498） 宠物蓝海，乖宝先航 2025 年 03 月 07 日 买入（上调） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3398 | 4327 | 5246 | 6297 | 7447 | | 同比（%） | 31.93 | 27.36 | 21.23 | 20.05 | 18.26 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 266.88 | 428.84 | 616.22 | 758.51 | 963.70 | | 同比（%） | 90.26 | 60.68 | 43.69 | 23.09 | 27.05 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 1.07 | 1.54 | 1.90 | 2.41 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 132.72 | 82.59 | 57.48 | 46.70 | 36.75 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summar ...