Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Global central banks have cut interest rates, while the Fed maintains its policy. The US economy shows resilience, but the labor market and re - inflation face challenges. Sino - US economic and trade talks have started, with both sides being tough before the talks [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Indonesia has lowered the domestic nickel ore benchmark price, but the shortage persists. Philippine shipments are delayed. In April, electrolytic nickel production exceeded expectations, narrowing in May. Stainless - steel inventory is high, suppressing May production. Nickel sulfate production is increasing, and the downstream ternary product structure is shifting to high - nickel, with expected growth in new - energy consumption [3]. - Outlook: There is no obvious change expected in the fundamentals. A weakening nickel ore price may drag down the nickel price. Attention should be focused on the impact of Sino - US trade talks on macro expectations. Although refined nickel production declined in May, it remains high. Nickel sulfate demand is rising but with a limited share. High stainless - steel inventory restricts production, and the fundamentals may not improve significantly [3][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data of Last Week - SHFE nickel price dropped from 124,630 yuan/ton to 123,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,180 yuan/ton; LME nickel price rose from 15,698 dollars/ton to 15,804 dollars/ton, an increase of 106 dollars/ton [5]. - LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,748 tons to 197,670 tons; SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 699 tons to 23,426 tons [5]. - Jinchuan nickel premium dropped from 2,400 yuan/ton to 2,150 yuan/ton; Russian nickel premium rose from 200 yuan/ton to 250 yuan/ton [5]. - High - nickel pig iron average price dropped from 980 yuan/nickel point to 960 yuan/nickel point; stainless - steel inventory increased from 94.3 tons to 95.1 tons [5]. 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The FOB price of Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore dropped from 51 dollars/wet ton to 48.5 dollars/wet ton, while the Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore domestic FOB price rose from 47.6 dollars/wet ton to 48.6 dollars/wet ton [6]. - Indonesia's May (Phase I) nickel ore domestic benchmark price is 15,049.23 dollars/wet ton, a decrease of about 3.16% from April (Phase II). The tight supply may ease with the recovery of Philippine shipments, and the ore price may decline [6]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 968.5 yuan/nickel point to 948.5 yuan/nickel point [7]. - In May, China's nickel pig iron production was 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. In March, domestic nickel - iron imports were about 1.0133 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 60%. Indonesia's April nickel - iron production was expected to be 143,300 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.19% and a month - on - month increase of 1.19% [7]. - In May, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production was expected to be about 1.78 million tons, 4 tons more than last year. As of April 30, domestic stainless - steel inventory was 573,700 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons [7]. Nickel Sulfate - Battery - grade nickel sulfate price rose from 28,080 yuan/ton to 28,115 yuan/ton; electroplating - grade nickel sulfate price remained at 30,750 yuan/ton [8]. - In May, the expected nickel metal output of nickel sulfate was about 26,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.51% and a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The production of ternary materials increased month - on - month, with a shift from low - nickel to high - nickel products [8]. 3. Macro and Fundamental Analysis Macro - The Fed maintained its interest rate in May. The US economy shows resilience, but there are pressures in the employment market and re - inflation. The market expects the Fed to start the first round of interest rate cuts in July [9]. - Sino - US economic and trade talks have started, and the UK - US trade agreement has been reached. Trump stated that the UK agreement is not a template, and other countries may face higher tariffs. The attitudes of both sides before the Sino - US talks are tough [9]. Fundamental - Supply - In May, domestic nickel production capacity was stable, but smelter production declined. In April, the actual output was 36,300 tons, slightly exceeding expectations. The expected output in May was 35,350 tons. In March, domestic electrolytic nickel exports were about 145,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 93.53% [9]. - As of May 9, the export profit of Chinese nickel was 242.59 dollars/ton. There is no new production capacity in May, and social inventory is high. High - ice nickel has a high cost of producing electrolytic nickel and flows more to the nickel sulfate market [9]. Fundamental - Consumption - From April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 922,000, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate was 52.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 3.342 million, a year - on - year increase of 37% [10]. - The new - energy vehicle sales in April fluctuated greatly. The sales from April 28 - 30 increased significantly, but the consumption heat did not continue during the May Day holiday. The new - energy vehicle sales growth may decline in the future [10]. Fundamental - Inventory - The total social inventory of pure nickel in six regions was 44,088 tons, a decrease of 2,822 tons from the previous period. SHFE inventory was 23,426 tons, a decrease of 699 tons, and LME nickel inventory was 197,670 tons, a decrease of 2,748 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges was 221,096 tons, a decrease of 3,447 tons [11]. 4. Industry News - An Indonesian nickel plant has resumed production after a landslide. Indonesia has lowered the domestic nickel ore benchmark price in May [13]. - Ivanhoe's subsidiary has achieved a major milestone in the Flatreef ore body. EV Nickel plans to mine 1.6 billion pounds of nickel in 20 years. First Atlantic Nickel has received a $150,000 grant [13].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment has relaxed compared to before, but there are still many uncertainties in tariffs and concerns about the economic outlook. The supply side of the fundamentals is stable, and the orders of aluminum - processing enterprises after the holiday still show resilience, creating an expected difference from before the holiday. As the peak consumption season is approaching, the expectation of weakening consumption is strong. It is necessary to continue to monitor inventory performance, and it is expected that the upward pressure on aluminum prices will gradually increase [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 months increased from 2391.5 yuan/ton on April 30, 2025, to 2418 yuan/ton on May 9, 2025, up 26.5 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum continuous - three price decreased from 19830 dollars/ton to 19445 dollars/ton, down 385 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio dropped from 8.3 to 8.0, a decrease of 0.3. The LME spot premium rose from - 27.81 dollars/ton to - 9.4 dollars/ton, an increase of 18.4 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased from 415575 tons to 403550 tons, a decrease of 12025 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 72590 tons to 65013 tons, a decrease of 7577 tons. The spot Yangtze River average price decreased from 20006.66667 yuan/ton to 19665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 341.7 yuan/ton. The spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The South China Storage spot average price decreased from 19936.66667 yuan/ton to 19620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 316.7 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased from 70 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased from 61.4 tons to 62 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased from 16365.01 yuan/ton to 16276.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.5 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased from 3641.66 yuan/ton to 3388.49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 253.2 yuan/ton [3] 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot in the spot market was 19948 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton compared to last week; the weekly average price of South China Storage spot was 19904 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton compared to last week. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. Traders still expect three interest rate cuts this year. The UK and the US reached a partial agreement on tariff trade terms. Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10th to 11th. The EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros worth of US goods. The domestic central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan". The domestic downstream aluminum - processing industry's operating rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9% compared to last week, with different performances among sectors. Primary aluminum alloy, industrial profiles, and cables performed well, while other sectors were weak. According to the current order situation, the operating rate of aluminum - processing enterprises is expected to remain stable next week [4] 3. Market Outlook - The macro - environment has relaxed compared to before, but there are still many uncertainties in tariffs and concerns about the economic outlook. The supply side of the fundamentals is stable, and the orders of aluminum - processing enterprises after the holiday still show resilience, creating an expected difference from before the holiday. As the peak consumption season is approaching, the expectation of weakening consumption is strong. It is necessary to continue to monitor inventory performance, and it is expected that the upward pressure on aluminum prices will gradually increase [7] 4. Industry News - The US vice - president said that negotiations with the EU are ongoing, hoping for the opening of the European market to US goods. The EU trade commissioner said that if the negotiations fail, the EU will announce details of the next counter - measures against US tariffs on Thursday. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association said that although copper, aluminum, and gold are on the exemption list, the US has imposed an additional 20% tariff on all imported products from China this year, raising the "301" and "232" tariffs on aluminum products from 10% to 25% and initiating a "232" investigation on copper. Since the Sino - US trade frictions in 2018 - 2019, China's exports of non - ferrous metal products to the US have dropped significantly. Alcoa's San Ciprián plant was affected by a large - scale power outage in Spain, and the company is assessing the full extent of the operational and financial impacts [8] 5. Relevant Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum current - month to continuous - one spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium of material trade, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][15]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Soybean Meal [1] Report Date - May 12, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract rose 8.25 to close at 1052.25 cents per bushel, a 0.79% increase; the September soybean meal contract fell 21 to close at 2899 yuan per ton, a 0.72% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 480 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 13.26% decrease; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 15 to close at 2551 yuan per ton, a 0.59% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 10 to 2430 yuan per ton, a 0.41% decrease [4][7]. - The fast sowing progress of US soybeans is conducive to the expectation of increased production, and there is no driving force in the weather market, so US soybeans continue to fluctuate. After the holiday, the soybean customs clearance process improved, the oil mill operating rate increased significantly, the soybean meal inventory stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply is expected to increase; the spot price dropped significantly, the feed enterprise inventory is at a low level in the same period, the提货 rhythm accelerated, and the post - holiday restocking transactions increased significantly. Although the China - US economic and trade negotiations have made substantial progress, factors such as the weather theme to be fermented and the expected tightening of the new - season balance sheet form support below, showing a weak and narrow - range fluctuation [4][7]. - In the next two weeks, the weather in the US soybean production areas will be good, which helps to maintain a fast sowing progress. At the same time, pay attention to the release of the May USDA report, and US soybeans may continue to fluctuate. In April, due to the impact of customs clearance policies, the soybean arrival volume was lower than expected, and the delayed part may be cleared in May. The domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to further increase, the soybean meal inventory will stop falling and rebound, and the supply will become more abundant; the China - US economic and trade negotiations have initially reached a consensus, pay attention to the subsequent process, but US soybeans generally show resistance to decline in the weather market, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate weakly [4][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The CBOT soybean price rose 8.25 to 1052.25 cents per bushel, a 0.79% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans fell 7 to 433 dollars per ton, a 1.59% decrease; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 2 to 453 dollars per ton, a 0.44% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased 20 to 75.66 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal contract fell 21 to 2899 yuan per ton, a 0.72% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal contract rose 15 to 2551 yuan per ton, a 0.59% increase; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 36 to 348 yuan per ton; the East China spot price fell 200 to 3200 yuan per ton, a 5.88% decrease; the South China spot price fell 480 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 13.26% decrease; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 459 to 241 yuan per ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 30%, the market expected 31%, the previous week was 18%, and the same period last year was 23%; the soybean emergence rate was 7%, the same period last year was 8%, and the five - year average was 5%. As of the week of May 6, about 15% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than 11% in the same period last year. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas will be 40 - 50mm, slightly lower than the average level, which is conducive to sowing, and the temperature is generally higher than normal, and the fast sowing progress is conducive to the expectation of increased production [8]. - As of the week of May 1, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year increased by 37.7 tons, the previous week was 42.8 tons, the cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 4772 tons, the sales progress was 96.1%, and the same period last year was 4234 tons; in that week, the net sales of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were almost zero, and the cumulative purchase volume of China in the current year was 2248 tons [8]. - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.75 dollars per bushel, the previous week was 1.92 dollars per bushel, lower than 3.29 dollars per bushel in the same period in 2023; the truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 49.03 cents per pound, the previous week was 49.32 cents per pound; the price of 48% protein soybean meal in Illinois soybean processing plants was 287.08 dollars per short ton, the previous week was 289 dollars per short ton; the average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.71 dollars per bushel, the previous week was 10.62 dollars per bushel [9]. - According to Conab data, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 97.7%, the previous week was 94.8%, the same period last year was 94.3%, and the five - year average was 96.3%, and the harvesting work was basically completed. The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) expects that the Brazilian soybean exports in May will reach 12.6 million tons, and the same period last year was 13.47 million tons [9]. - As of the week of May 7, 2025, the soybean harvesting progress in Argentina was 44.9%, lower than 47% in the same period last year, but the progress has accelerated significantly due to less precipitation. According to the crop weekly report of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentine producers have harvested half of the early - sown soybeans, and the yields in the core agricultural areas and Cordoba Province are higher than expected [10]. - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 4.7464 million tons, an increase of 151,600 tons from the previous week and 556,300 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 82,100 tons, an increase of 7300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 443,000 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 4.3008 million tons, an increase of 1.7473 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 475,100 tons from the same period last year; the national port soybean inventory was 5.532 million tons, an increase of 329,200 tons from the previous week and 83,500 tons from the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the national daily average soybean meal transaction volume was 264,600 tons, of which the spot transaction was 49,650 tons and the forward transaction was 214,950 tons, and the daily average total transaction volume in the week before the holiday was 25,300 tons; the daily average soybean meal提货 volume was 151,000 tons, and the previous week was 137,500 tons; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.846 million tons, and the previous week was 1.523 million tons; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 4.45 days, and the previous week was 5.04 days [11]. 3. Industry News - Brazilian farmers plan to expand the soybean planting area in the main planting areas by about 500,000 hectares in the 2025/2026 season starting in September. In the current season, Brazilian farmers planted a record 47.8 million hectares of soybeans and harvested 172.1 million tons [12]. - From April 28 to May 2, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state was 623.09 reais per ton, and the previous week was 643.31 reais per ton. In that week, the soybean meal price in the state was 1691.22 reais per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5806.38 reais per ton [13]. - Analysts predict that the US soybean production in the 2025/2026 season will be 4.338 billion bushels, the estimated range is between 4.3 - 4.4 billion bushels, and the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum forecast is 4.37 billion bushels; the US soybean yield per acre in the 2025/2026 season will be 52.5 bushels, the estimated range is between 51.9 - 53.5 bushels per acre, and the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum forecast is 52.5 bushels per acre; the US soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 362 million bushels, the estimated range is between 267 - 675 million bushels; the global soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 126.02 million tons, the estimated range is between 120.74 - 137 million tons [13]. - The soybean exports of Mato Grosso state in the 2025/2026 season will decrease by 4% compared with the previous season. It is expected to export 29.8 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, an increase of 180,000 tons from the previous monthly forecast, reflecting the increase in Chinese demand. It is expected that the demand for soybeans in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/2026 season will reach nearly 13.1 million tons, a 1.1% increase from the 2024/2025 season. The demand for soybeans from other regions of Brazil in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/2026 season is expected to decrease by 22% to 4.5 million tons compared with the 2024/2025 season [14]. - The Canadian rapeseed production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 18.2 million tons, the estimated range is 16.5 - 20.1 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous year. The total planting area is expected to be 8.59 million hectares, a 3.5% decrease from the previous year. The soil moisture in the main production areas in south - western Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba has been at the lowest level in six years since February, while the soil moisture in Alberta is still relatively healthy. The summer weather outlook shows that from June to August, the temperature will be higher than normal and the rainfall in the southern prairie will be lower than normal, which may put downward pressure on yields [14]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the forecast of the 2024/2025 soybean harvest from 48.6 million tons to 50 million tons, saying that the yield is better than expected. Argentine producers have harvested half of the early - sown soybeans, and the yields in the core agricultural areas and Cordoba Province are higher than expected [15]. - The commercial sales of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season have reached 57% of the expected output, which is delayed compared with the same period last year and the historical average. Compared with last month, the soybean sales in Brazil increased by 6.3 percentage points. In the same period last year, the soybean sales completed 64.6% of the expected output, and the five - year average was even higher at 70.3%. Considering that the company has estimated the soybean output to reach a record 172.45 million tons, the soybean sales in the country have reached 97.88 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, the Brazilian soybean sales volume has reached 7.9% of the expected output of 182.57 million tons, about 14.35 million tons. Although the sales have improved, they are still lower than 9.9% in the same period last year and far lower than the historical average of 17.2% [15]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the soybean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the M 9 - 1 month - to - month difference of soybean meal, the management fund CBOT net position, the regional soybean meal spot price, the precipitation and temperature in US soybean production areas, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress, the US soybean weekly net sales volume, the US soybean cumulative export sales volume to the world and China, the US soybean weekly export volume and weekly net sales volume to China, the US oil mill crushing profit, the soybean meal weekly average daily transaction volume and提货 volume, the port and oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill weekly crushing volume and operating rate, the oil mill soybean meal inventory, and the feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days [16][17][18][21][23][25][29][31][32][36][38][39][40][43][45][46][47][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The start of Sino-US economic and trade talks eased the tense situation, and the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The Fed's hawkish stance delayed interest rate cuts, slightly boosting the US dollar. The negative effects of tariff shocks on the global economy gradually emerged, hindering the upward movement of copper prices. However, the shortage of refined copper overseas provided strong fundamental support. Domestically, a package of financial incremental policies by the central bank boosted market confidence, and China's acceleration of the domestic economic cycle and the construction of a strategic cooperation system with "Belt and Road" countries will effectively offset the negative impact of US tariffs [2][8]. - Overall, the Sino-US economic and trade meeting achieved substantial progress and reached important consensus, and the two sides will issue a joint statement soon. The Fed maintains a hawkish stance and delays interest rate cuts, and the unexpected recovery of the eurozone economy will continue to be loose. Domestically, the central bank has launched a package of financial incremental policy combinations to stabilize market confidence. Fundamentally, the medium-term tightening pattern of concentrates remains unchanged, the supply of imported refined copper in China is tight, the premium of Yangshan warehouse receipts is high, and social inventories continue to decline. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile at a high level, waiting for the details of the Sino-US trade negotiations to be disclosed [3][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - LME copper rose from $9,125.50/ton on April 30 to $9,439.00/ton on May 9, an increase of $313.50 or 3.44% [4]. - COMEX copper rose from 461 cents/pound on April 30 to 465.4 cents/pound on May 9, an increase of 4.4 cents or 0.95% [4]. - SHFE copper rose from 77,220 yuan/ton on April 30 to 77,450 yuan/ton on May 9, an increase of 230 yuan or 0.30% [4]. - International copper rose from 68,470 yuan/ton on April 30 to 68,750 yuan/ton on May 9, an increase of 280 yuan or 0.41% [4]. - The Shanghai-London ratio decreased from 8.46 to 8.21 [4]. - The LME spot premium changed from -$6.80/ton on April 30 to $49.19/ton on May 9, an increase of $55.99 or -823.38% [4]. - The Shanghai spot premium decreased from 230 yuan/ton on April 30 to 80 yuan/ton on May 9, a decrease of 150 yuan [4]. - LME inventory decreased from 200,150 tons on April 30 to 191,775 tons on May 9, a decrease of 8,375 tons or 4.18% [7]. - COMEX inventory increased from 144,023 short tons on April 30 to 160,250 short tons on May 9, an increase of 16,227 short tons or 11.27% [7]. - SHFE inventory decreased from 89,289 tons on April 30 to 80,687 tons on May 9, a decrease of 8,602 tons or 9.63% [7]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased from 93,500 tons on April 30 to 90,500 tons on May 9, a decrease of 3,000 tons or 3.21% [7]. - Total inventory decreased from 526,962 tons on April 30 to 523,212 tons on May 9, a decrease of 3,750 tons or 0.71% [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices fluctuated at a high level last week. The start of Sino-US economic and trade talks eased the tense situation, and the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The Fed's hawkish stance delayed interest rate cuts, slightly boosting the US dollar. The negative effects of tariff shocks on the global economy gradually emerged, hindering the upward movement of copper prices. However, the shortage of refined copper overseas provided strong fundamental support. Domestically, a package of financial incremental policies by the central bank boosted market confidence, and China's acceleration of the domestic economic cycle and the construction of a strategic cooperation system with "Belt and Road" countries will effectively offset the negative impact of US tariffs [2][8]. - As of May 9, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 523,000 tons, and the global inventory decreased slightly. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the LME 0 - 3 shifted to a B structure, with the proportion of cancelled warrants continuing to rise to 43.1%. SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 8,000 tons, showing obvious characteristics of the consumption peak season. Bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons. Last week, the Yangshan copper bill of lading premium rose to $110, reaching a two-year high. The COMEX US copper premium narrowed to $600 - 800/ton, but overseas deliverable supplies continued to flow into North America, causing the COMEX visible inventory to rise to 160,000 tons at a high level. The Shanghai-London ratio decreased to 8.21 mainly due to the recent significant appreciation of the RMB [8]. - Sino-US economic and trade high-level meetings are imminent. The global trade situation is gradually easing and moving in a favorable direction. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5% in its May meeting, and Powell said that there is no need to rush to cut interest rates. Domestically, the central bank cut the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.1% to 1.4% in early May, cut the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5%, and is expected to release about 1 trillion yuan of medium- and long-term liquidity into the market. The central bank also announced a series of other financial policies to boost the confidence of China's capital market [10]. - This week, the spot TC widened to -$43/ton. The global mine end's medium-term tightening pattern remains unchanged. In terms of refined copper, China's refined copper output in April was 1.126 million tons, continuing to rise month-on-month, but the imported supplies were scarce in early May. From the demand side, power grid investment projects have started one after another, and the operating rate of cable enterprises in April rebounded to 81.3%. The new energy vehicle production and sales growth rate exceeded 40%, and the traditional industry showed peak season characteristics. The domestic social inventory continued to decline significantly to around 12 tons, and the near-month contract on the disk maintained a large B structure [11]. 3.3 Industry News - First Quantum's copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 99,700 tons, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. Its 2025 copper guidance production is 380,000 - 440,000 tons (excluding the resumption of production of the Panama copper mine). The Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia had a copper production of 46,500 tons in the first quarter, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3%. The Kansanshi smelter plans to carry out a six-week maintenance shutdown in the second quarter of 2025. The SENTINEL copper mine in Zambia had a copper production of 46,400 tons in the first quarter, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18%. The mine plans to carry out a four-day comprehensive maintenance shutdown in the second quarter of 2025 [13]. - Teck Resources' copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 106,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.1%. The Highland Valley project in Canada had a copper production of 29,500 tons in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.4%. The QBII project in Chile had a copper production of 42,000 tons in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 27.1%. The production in this quarter was affected by an 18-day shutdown in January and a power outage in late February [14]. - According to Mysteel research data, last week, the processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 500 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous week. After the holiday, the downstream replenishment willingness slowed down after the high-level fluctuation of copper prices, and the terminal orders were mainly for rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the operation of China's refined copper rod enterprises will continue to recover in mid-May [15]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, SHFE and bonded area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, SHFE copper basis trend, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][19][20].

2025 年 5 月 9 日 下游需求转淡 钢价偏弱走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 钢材月报 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 14 ⚫ 供给端：上月钢材生产总体平稳，结构上长流程增 产、短流程减产。螺纹钢周产量维持在230万吨左右， 长流程贡献202万吨，短流程减至26.7万吨；热卷产 量保持320万吨高位，钢厂铁水向板材倾斜。短期高 供应仍是主基调，后市关注政策调控对市场的影响。 ⚫ 需求端：钢材继续面临着内需缓慢恢复、外需承压 的不利格局。房建需求仍是主要拖累项，基建支撑 有限。新房销售及施工端未见明显改善，4月建材需 求 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic that alumina will remain in a low - level oscillation this month, and the aluminum price will fluctuate weakly this month [3][68][69] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Alumina futures stopped falling this month after three months of decline. The main contract fluctuated narrowly between 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton, and closed at 2729 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 9.03%. The monthly structure changed from a slight Contango to a Back structure in the near - term [9] - The Shanghai Aluminum futures price dropped from 20500 yuan/ton to 18960 yuan/ton at the beginning of April and then fluctuated between 19500 - 20000 yuan/ton, closing at 19910 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 2.71%. LME aluminum fell to 2300 US dollars/ton at the beginning of the month and then rebounded slightly, closing at 2392 US dollars/ton, down 5.75%. The Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio fluctuated between 8.27 and 8.17, with an import loss of about 1000 yuan/ton [10] 2. Macroeconomics 2.1 Overseas - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in May. The US tariff policy is in a 90 - day chaotic period of suspending the collection of "reciprocal tariffs". The US imposes a 145% tariff on Chinese goods and may impose a 245% tariff, while exempting some goods from a 125% "reciprocal tariff". The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is slow [13] - In April, the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The core PCE in March increased by 2.65% year - on - year. The real GDP in the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. The manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7%. The consumer confidence index and the enterprise capital investment intention index both hit new lows since 2020 [14] - The eurozone inflation rate dropped to 2.2% in April. The first - quarter GDP increased by 0.4% quarter - on - quarter and 1.2% year - on - year. The US tariff is expected to have a negative impact on the European economy, and the GDP growth in the second and third quarters is expected to stagnate or only increase by 0.1% [15] 2.2 Domestic - In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year. In March, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added value all exceeded expectations. The real estate development investment decreased by 9.9% year - on - year, and the new - built commercial housing sales area decreased by 3% year - on - year [16][17] - In March, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. M2 increased by 7.0% year - on - year, and social financing stock increased by 8.4% year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rates of industrial enterprise revenue and profit both improved [17] - The Politburo meeting in April set a positive tone, and subsequent reserve requirements and interest rates were cut, releasing a signal of "moderate easing" [18] 3. Alumina Market Analysis 3.1 Bauxite - Inland mines continued to resume production in April. Due to the decline in alumina prices, inland enterprises lowered the bauxite procurement base price. By the end of April, the bauxite prices in Shanxi, Henan, Guizhou, and Guangxi all decreased compared with the previous month [23] - In the first quarter of 2025, China's bauxite imports increased by about 1.075 billion tons compared with the same period last year, with an increase of about 940 million tons from Guinea. The main import countries are Guinea (77.3%) and Australia (16.6%). The bauxite price is under pressure [24] 3.2 Alumina Supply - In March 2025, China's alumina production was 7.558 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In April, there were batch maintenance and production cuts, and new capacities in Hebei and Guangxi were put into production. It is expected that the daily output in April will be slightly lower than that in March, and the production will be about 7.3 million tons [25] - In March 2024, China's alumina exports were 144,100 tons, and imports were 303,800 tons. The export window closed in late February, and the export volume in April is expected to decrease [26] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Spot - By the end of April, the alumina futures exchange inventory was 271,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous month, and the exchange factory inventory was 7,200 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous month [26] - In April, the alumina spot premium initially remained around 200 yuan/ton and then fell to around 100 yuan/ton. The overall transaction was light [26] 3.4 Alumina Cost and Profit - In March 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of China's alumina industry was 3209.58 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% and a year - on - year increase of 14.11%. The decline in raw material prices led to a slight decrease in costs [27] 3.5 Alumina Viewpoint - The large - scale production cuts in mid - April helped the alumina price stop falling. In May, there were batch maintenance and production cuts in the south, and new production of 1.6 million tons in the north began. The alumina market is expected to oscillate at a low level this month, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations in the supply - demand balance [3][28][29] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis 4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In March 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.7116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. In April, there were both production increases and decreases. It is estimated that the production in April was about 3.615 million tons [42] - In March 2025, the global (excluding China) alumina production was 4.821 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.66%. It is expected that the production in April will be 4.713 million tons [42] - In March 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 222,000 tons, and exports were about 9,000 tons. The net import is expected to remain high in April [43] 4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - By April 30, the aluminum ingot inventory was 614,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 151,000 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 296,000 tons from the previous month [43] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 77,000 tons to 69,000 tons by the end of April [44] 4.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - In April, the electrolytic aluminum spot price was basically at a premium, with a maximum premium of 60 yuan/ton and a minimum slight discount of 10 yuan/ton. The LME discount fluctuated between - 20 and - 40 US dollars/ton [45] 4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In April, the theoretical average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,448.79 yuan/ton, a decrease of 699.4 yuan/ton from the previous month. The monthly theoretical profit was 3,467.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 108.21 yuan/ton from the previous month [48] 5. Consumption Analysis 5.1 Aluminum Processing - In April, the aluminum processing industry still performed well, but there was obvious structural differentiation. The production and orders of building profiles, industrial profiles, and aluminum cables increased, while the production of aluminum plate, strip, and foil and aluminum alloy maintained stability. The decline in the aluminum price center of gravity partially alleviated the replenishment cost pressure, but the demand transmission lag suppressed the replenishment willingness [62] 5.2 Domestic Terminal Consumption - From January to March, the national real estate development investment decreased by 9.9% year - on - year, and the new - start, construction, and completion areas all decreased year - on - year [63] - In March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.237 million, a year - on - year increase of 40.1%. From January to March, the sales volume was 3.075 million, a year - on - year increase of 47.1% [63] - In March, the completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 95.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 24.8%. In April, the aluminum cable enterprises had sufficient orders, and new orders are expected to land in late May [64] - In March 2025, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 20.24GW, a year - on - year increase of 124.39%. From January to March, the cumulative newly - added installed capacity was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 30.54% [65] 5.3 Aluminum Product Exports - In March 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 506,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17% and a month - on - month increase of 24.02%. From January to March, the cumulative exports were 1.365 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6%. The export volume is expected to decline month - on - month [66] 6. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the US economic outlook is uncertain, and the Fed is difficult to cut interest rates. China's monetary policy has released a signal of "moderate easing" [68] - Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level this month, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance [68] - For electrolytic aluminum, the supply increases slightly, the consumption is at the end of the seasonal peak season, and the inventory starts to accumulate after the May Day holiday. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly this month [69]

李婷 021-68556855 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 铁矿石月报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 供需边际转弱 铁矿重心向下 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责条款 ⚫要点需求端：铁水产量偏强运行。铁水产量持续高位运 行，4月日均铁水产量超过240万吨，最高突破245万 吨，创近年同期新高。利润约束逐步显现，4月末长 流程螺纹利润收窄，部分电炉亏损扩大，加之粗钢 限产预期升温，钢厂进一步提产空间受限。 ⚫ 供应端：4月铁矿石供应端呈现"主流减量、非主流 补充"特征， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US tariff policy has raised concerns about a global economic recession, leading to a significant drop in oil prices and dragging down the oil and fat market. However, the US biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment, with US soybean oil rising sharply and providing some support to the oil and fat sector. Meanwhile, Canadian canola has been relatively strong in April due to good crushing demand and low inventory. Palm oil in the producing regions has entered an increasing production cycle, with a significant increase in production in April and a tendency for the increase to expand in May. As prices fall, demand countries like India and China have increased their purchases, but the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy has fallen short of expectations, and domestic and international inventories are expected to increase during the current production cycle [3][44][45]. - In terms of importing countries, India's palm oil imports in March were 430,000 tons, below the average level, and the market expects April imports to be below normal, remaining below the average for five consecutive months. China's cumulative imports in the first three months of 2025 were 390,000 tons, far lower than the same period in previous years. With the sharp decline in producer quotes, import profits have improved, and recent purchases in China have increased. According to institutional statistics, the purchases for May shipments are relatively sufficient, and the inflection point of domestic inventory is expected to occur in June [3][44]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed has once again paused interest rate cuts, in line with market expectations. The UK-US tariff agreement has been reached to some extent, but the market anticipates limited substantial progress. After a recent rebound, the US stock market still faces pressure, and the US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level. Facing economic uncertainties and expectations of increased supply, the weak pattern of oil prices remains unchanged. Fundamentally, after entering the production increase season, production from May to October will show a seasonal recovery. After the decline in palm oil prices, import profits have improved, and demand countries have increased their purchases. However, considering the increased supply of soybeans in China, the substitution demand for soybean oil remains, which may suppress the export demand of producers. Domestic and international inventories are expected to start a seasonal recovery in May - June. Coupled with the under - performance of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation, palm oil may fluctuate weakly [3][45]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Oil and Fat Market - Since April, the overall oil and fat sector has been fluctuating weakly. Palm oil has been the weakest due to the arrival of the production increase season and poor export demand. In the domestic market, at the end of April, the palm oil 09 contract fell 522 to 8,148 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.14%; the soybean oil 09 contract fell 122 to 7,832 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.53%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 142 to 9,297 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.5%. In the overseas market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 401 to 3,910 ringgit/ton, a decline of 9.3%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 3.59 to 48.97 cents/pound, an increase of 7.91%; the ICE canola active contract rose 82.5 to 693.6 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 13.5%. In the spot market, palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 910 to 8,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.42%; first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao, Shandong fell 190 to 8,070 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%; imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 40 to 9,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43% [8]. - In early April, palm oil first soared and then fell sharply. The soaring was mainly due to the US biodiesel policy boosting the demand for US soybean oil, which drove the overall oil and fat market up. However, as the palm oil producing regions entered the production increase season, supply gradually increased, and the US tariff policy raised concerns about the global economic outlook. The sharp decline in crude oil prices drove the oil and fat market down, causing palm oil to fall rapidly. From mid - to late April, palm oil entered a wide - range oscillation. After the sharp price decline, the buying interest of demand countries like India and China increased, and the increased bargain - hunting purchases supported the market, while the production increase cycle suppressed it. After the May Day holiday, the domestic market made significant adjustments. With production increasing more than expected and export demand not as optimistic as expected, coupled with the continuous suspension of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy, palm oil oscillated weakly [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 MPOB Report - The monthly data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in March was 1.3872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.76%; exports were 1.0055 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91%; imports were 121,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.51%; and the ending inventory was 1.5626 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%, in line with expectations, and the overall report was neutral [19]. 2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - According to the data of the Malaysian Palm Oil Processors Association (SPPOMA), from April 1 - 30, 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 14.50%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.48%, and palm oil production increased by 17.03%. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia's palm oil production from April 1 - 30, 2025, increased by 24.62% to 1.73 million tons compared with the same period last month. Among them, the production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 28.06%, the production in East Malaysia increased by 20.76%, the production in Sabah increased by 24.07%, and the production in Sarawak increased by 11.37%. According to the latest data of SPPOMA, from May 1 - 5, 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 61.58%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.59%, and palm oil production increased by 60.17% [27]. - According to the data of shipping survey agency SGS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in April were 825,309 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,874 tons, a decrease of 0.23%. According to the data of shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil product exports in April were 1,120,747 tons, an increase of 54,270 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 5.09%. According to the data released by independent inspection company AmSpec Agri, Malaysia's palm oil exports in April were 1,087,133 tons, an increase of 37,879 tons compared with the previous month, an increase of 3.61% [28]. 2.3 Indonesia Situation - According to the data released by the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), Indonesia's palm oil production in February 2025 was 3.79 million tons, 3.828 million tons in January, 4.25 million tons in February 2024, and the five - year average was 3.87 million tons. The total production from January - February 2025 was 7.62 million tons, compared with 8.89 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of exports, Indonesia's palm oil exports in February 2025 were 2.8 million tons, 1.96 million tons in January, 2.17 million tons in February 2024, and the five - year average was 2.34 million tons. The total exports from January - February 2025 were 4.76 million tons, compared with 4.98 million tons in the same period last year. In terms of inventory, Indonesia's palm oil inventory in February 2025 was 2.25 million tons, 2.94 million tons in January, and 3.26 million tons in February 2024 [31]. 2.4 Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - According to the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), India's vegetable oil imports in March 2025 were 970,000 tons, an increase of 9.48% compared with 886,000 tons in February. In March 2024, imports were 1.15 million tons, and the five - year average was 1.05 million tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, the total vegetable oil imports were 5.64 million tons, compared with 5.77 million tons in the same period last year [33]. - For different oils, India's palm oil imports in March 2025 were 425,000 tons, an increase of 13.64% compared with 374,000 tons in February. In March 2024, imports were 485,000 tons, and the five - year average was 520,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's palm oil imports were 2.42 million tons, compared with 3.53 million tons in the same period last year. India's soybean oil imports in March 2025 were 355,000 tons, an increase of 25% compared with 284,000 tons in February. In March 2024, soybean oil imports were 219,000 tons, and the five - year average was 270,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's soybean oil imports were 1.91 million tons, compared with 880,000 tons in the same period last year, showing a significant increase. India's sunflower oil imports in March 2025 were 191,000 tons, a decrease of 16.23% compared with 228,000 tons in February. In March 2024, sunflower oil imports were 446,000 tons, and the five - year average was 250,000 tons. From November 2024 to March 2025, India's sunflower oil imports were 1.31 million tons, compared with 1.35 million tons in the same period last year [34]. 2.5 China's Oil Imports - Data from the General Administration of Customs of China shows that China's palm oil imports in March 2025 were 170,000 tons, 100,000 tons in February, 160,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 224,000 tons. The cumulative palm oil imports from January - March 2025 were 390,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons in the same period last year. China's rapeseed oil imports in March 2025 were 344,000 tons, 236,000 tons in February, 195,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 161,000 tons. The cumulative rapeseed oil imports from January - March 2025 were 732,000 tons, compared with 520,000 tons in the same period last year. China's sunflower oil imports in March 2025 were 39,000 tons, 42,000 tons in February, 126,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 111,000 tons. In 2025, sunflower oil imports were 131,000 tons, compared with 412,000 tons in the same period last year. In total, the imports of the above three major oils in March 2025 were 553,000 tons, 378,000 tons in February, 481,000 tons in March 2024, and the five - year average was 496,000 tons. The cumulative imports of the three major oils from January - March 2024 were 1.253 million tons, compared with 1.483 million tons in the same period last year [36]. 2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - According to data from My Agri, as of the week ending May 2, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 1.7788 million tons, an increase of 16,900 tons from the previous week and an increase of 99,800 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 626,800 tons, an increase of 8,300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 231,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 356,100 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 103,400 tons compared with the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 795,900 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous week and an increase of 434,500 tons compared with the same period last year [41]. 3. Summary and Future Outlook - The US tariff policy has raised concerns about a global economic recession, leading to a significant drop in oil prices and dragging down the oil and fat market. The US biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment, with US soybean oil rising sharply and providing some support to the oil and fat sector. Palm oil in the producing regions has entered an increasing production cycle, with a significant increase in production in April and a tendency for the increase to expand in May. As prices fall, demand countries like India and China have increased their purchases, but the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy has fallen short of expectations, and domestic and international inventories are expected to increase during the current production cycle [44]. - In terms of importing countries, India's palm oil imports in March were 430,000 tons, below the average level, and the market expects April imports to be below normal, remaining below the average for five consecutive months. China's cumulative imports in the first three months of 2025 were 390,000 tons, far lower than the same period in previous years. With the sharp decline in producer quotes, import profits have improved, and recent purchases in China have increased. According to institutional statistics, the purchases for May shipments are relatively sufficient, and the inflection point of domestic inventory is expected to occur in June [44]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed has once again paused interest rate cuts, in line with market expectations. The UK - US tariff agreement has been reached to some extent, but the market anticipates limited substantial progress. After a recent rebound, the US stock market still faces pressure, and the US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level. Facing economic uncertainties and expectations of increased supply, the weak pattern of oil prices remains unchanged. Fundamentally, after entering the production increase season, production from May to October will show a seasonal recovery. After the decline in palm oil prices, import profits have improved, and demand countries have increased their purchases. However, considering the increased supply of soybeans in China, the substitution demand for soybean oil remains, which may suppress the export demand of producers. Domestic and international inventories are expected to start a seasonal recovery in May - June. Coupled with the under - performance of Indonesia's biodiesel policy implementation, palm oil may fluctuate weakly [45].

豆粕月报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 关注5月USDA报告 连粕或震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/21 图表目录 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 国际方面：中美经贸谈判进入长周期的博弈过程，在当 前税率的情况下，对远月合约仍形成支撑。4月USDA报告 对美国和巴西大豆调整有限，新季美豆播种季开启，整 体进度较快，有利于产量增加，播种初期天气较为良好； 新年度美豆种植面积下调，或有供应收紧预期，关注 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, boosting market risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and various economic data [2]. - The prices of most commodities showed different trends of fluctuations. Precious metals prices continued to adjust, copper prices were strongly volatile, aluminum prices were weakly volatile, and the prices of other commodities also changed according to their respective fundamentals [3][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The US and UK reached a limited trade agreement, with the US retaining a 10% benchmark tariff on the UK, expanding market access, canceling steel - aluminum tariffs, implementing a 0% tariff on US agricultural products, and a stepped tariff on UK car imports. Trump encouraged stock - buying, leading to a rebound in US stocks and cryptocurrencies, the US dollar index stabilizing above 100, the US bond yield rising to 4.37%, and the gold price falling by over 1%. Oil and copper prices closed higher [2]. - Domestic: A - shares rose with reduced trading volume, with the turnover of the two markets dropping to 1.32 trillion. The ChiNext and small - cap stocks performed well, and sectors such as military and optical modules led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered the decline since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April. In the bond market, after the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the money market became looser, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Attention should be paid to April's foreign trade, financial, and price data [2]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures closed down. COMEX gold futures tumbled 2.40% to $3310 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures edged down 0.57% to $32.6 per ounce. The trade agreement between the US and the UK reduced the appeal of gold as a safe - haven asset. If the Sino - US trade talks reach an agreement, the gold price may face further downward pressure [3]. Copper - On Thursday, SHFE copper was weakly volatile, and LME copper soared overnight. The spot market trading was light, and the LME inventory decreased to 194,000 tons. The first - quarter copper production of First Quantum decreased by 10.7% quarter - on - quarter. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, SHFE aluminum closed at 19,510 yuan per ton, down 0.69%. LME aluminum rose 0.17%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 16,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 9,000 tons. The market sentiment was relieved by the US - UK trade agreement. The aluminum price is expected to remain weakly volatile due to consumption concerns [8]. Alumina - On Thursday, the alumina futures main contract rose 3.25% to 2794 yuan per ton. Negative news about new capacity led to a small rebound in alumina prices, but the sustainability and height of the rebound are expected to be limited [9]. Zinc - On Thursday, SHFE zinc first rose and then declined, and LME zinc closed up. Recently, imported zinc ingots have flowed in, and with the approaching end of the consumption peak season, the zinc price is under pressure, and short positions can be held against the 10 - day moving average [10][11]. Lead - On Thursday, SHFE lead fluctuated narrowly, and LME lead also had a narrow - range fluctuation. The social inventory increased. Some lead smelters plan to conduct maintenance, and the supply reduction provides support. The lead price is expected to move sideways in the short term [12][14]. Tin - On Thursday, SHFE tin first rose and then declined, and LME tin had a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve slightly, and the consumption is stable. The tin price is expected to fluctuate [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the industrial silicon main contract trended downwards. The supply side has limited expansion power, and the demand side is weak. The social inventory remains at 600,000 tons, and the industrial silicon price is expected to continue to decline in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the lithium carbonate price fluctuated widely, and the spot price fell. The short - selling sentiment subsided after the price failed to break through. The downstream purchasing is weak, and the basis correction risk has materialized. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [18][19]. Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price fluctuated widely. The macro - level still has tariff risks, and the downstream replenishment willingness is weak after the holiday. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate [20]. Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil trended strongly. The false news of Kazakhstan's production cut and geopolitical conflicts co - existed. The long - term downward pressure on oil prices comes from OPEC +'s continuous large - scale production increase. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [21]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures declined. The supply of the five major steel products decreased, the inventory increased, and the apparent consumption decreased. The steel price is expected to weaken due to weak supply and demand [22][23]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated. Downstream steel mills cut production, and the supply is relatively loose. The iron ore price is expected to trend weakly [24]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract declined. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the soybean harvest forecast. The double - meal prices are expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [25]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 09 contract declined. The BIMP - EAGA Commercial Committee plans to strengthen the quality monitoring of crude palm oil. The palm oil price is expected to weakly fluctuate in the short term [26][27].