期专项债发行速度偏慢相关，随着后续特别国债落地，建筑业景气有望回升。 30 45 60 生产 新订单 新出口订单 在手订单 产成品库存 采购量 进口 出厂价格 主要原材料 购进价格 原材料库存 从业人员 供货商配送 时间 2024-05 2024-04 2023-05 图表 12 制造业 PMI 主要分项指标 图表 13 历年各月制造业 PMI 45.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 55.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 % | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|------------|-------|-------|----------------|---------|-------|-------|-------|---------|-- ...

2024 年 5 月 27 日 核心观点 ⚫ 国内方面，本周为经济数据真空期，5月LPR利率未调降 符合预期，地产新政出台后，多地跟进落实，包括下调首 付比、下调贷款利率、优化公积金贷款等。高频数据显示， 地产新房销售尚未出现改善，二手房边际转好。5月23日， 总书记召开企业和专家座谈会，紧扣推进中国式现代化主 题，进一步全面深化改革，为7月召开的三中全会做准备。 本周关注中国4月工业企业利润、5月PMI。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 黄蕾 021-68555105 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 1、美国制造业、服务业 PMI 双双上行、地产销售降温 图表 1 美国 Markit PMI 图表 2 美国成屋销量 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 2021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-122024-03 Markit制造业PMI Markit服务业PMI % 3 ...

宏观周报 核心观点 ⚫ 风险因素：政策效果不及预期，地产复苏不及预期， 地缘政治冲突超预期，海外货币宽松晚于预期。 李婷 021-68555105 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 12 CPI 如期下行，市场交易降息。4 月美国 CPI 同比录得 3.4%，预期 3.4%,前值 3.5%；环 比录得 0.3%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.4%。核心 CPI 同比录得 3.6%，预期 3.6%，前值 3.8%，为 2021 年 5 月来最低；环比录得 0.3%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.4%。数据公布后，美元指数大幅下 挫，10 年美债收益率跌落至 4.3%，黄金创一个月新高，油价收涨，美股三大指数均创历史 新高，市场充分演绎了降息交易。 0.65%。 图表 1 美国 CPI 及核心 CPI 图表 2 美国 CPI 同比贡献分项 资料来源：iFinD，铜冠金源期货 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 2021-092021-12202 ...

Economic Overview - China's economy is characterized by "volume increase and price decrease," with Q1 GDP growth at 5.3%, exceeding the 4.6% market expectation, while the GDP deflator recorded -1.3%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressure[9] - Despite a recovery in consumer spending, per capita consumption has only returned to 88.5% of pre-pandemic levels, reflecting a trend of consumption downgrade and a focus on cost-effectiveness[9] Inflation and Monetary Policy - March CPI in the U.S. rose to 3.5%, above the expected 3.4%, with core CPI at 3.8%, leading to a delay in interest rate cut expectations until September[5] - The market is experiencing "re-inflation" sentiment, with the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rising following the CPI data release[5] Market Performance - In April, the domestic equity market showed mixed performance, with A-shares rising by 1.02% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 7.39%, while overseas markets faced declines due to delayed rate cut expectations[16] - The South China commodity index recorded a 5.83% increase in April, with black metals leading at 11.83% growth, while agricultural products fell by 2.20%[34] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 2.30%, reflecting a 1.27 basis point increase from March[70] - The central bank's net withdrawal of liquidity amounted to 550 billion yuan in April, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties[46] Commodity Trends - Gold prices reached a peak of $2,400 per ounce before settling at $2,285.78, with a monthly increase of 2.32% driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns[76] - Copper prices surged by 12.5% to $10,162 per ton, influenced by supply disruptions and strong demand expectations, despite signs of weakening downstream consumption[76]

Domestic Economy - The 4-month LPR rate remained unchanged, in line with market expectations, with potential for interest rate and RRR cuts in Q2 due to weak domestic demand and unstable real estate[2] - Industrial enterprise profits in March saw a year-on-year decline, with upstream mining profits improving while midstream and downstream sectors experienced a slowdown[21] - Industrial enterprise inventories rebounded slightly, but destocking remains challenging due to price reductions[43] US Economy - US Q1 GDP growth fell short of expectations at 1.6%, the lowest in nearly two years, while core PCE inflation accelerated to 3.7%, raising concerns about stagflation[32] - Fixed investment contributed 0.91 percentage points to GDP, with residential investment growing 13.9% and inventory drag on GDP weakening[5] - March core PCE inflation slightly exceeded expectations at 2.8% year-on-year, driven by strong core services inflation[7][8] Eurozone Economy - Eurozone manufacturing PMI remained weak at 45.6 in April, while services PMI rose to 52.9, the highest in 11 months, indicating a widening divergence between sectors[40] - Germany's composite PMI returned to expansion at 50.5, driven by services, while France's composite PMI improved to 49.9[40] Market Performance - US 10-year Treasury yields surged past 4.7%, hitting a yearly high, as inflation concerns reduced market expectations for rate cuts[10] - The Hang Seng Index rose 8.8% last week, while the Hang Seng Tech Index surged 13.43%, reflecting strong performance in Hong Kong markets[26] Commodities and Currencies - WTI crude oil prices increased 1.75% last week, while Brent crude rose 0.88%, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions[47] - The US dollar index remained stable at 106.09, while the yen weakened against the yuan, with USD/JPY rising 1.09% last week[47]

宏观周报 李婷 021-68555105 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 021-68555105 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0384165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 1、3 月美国零售消费超预期走强 线上零售、加油站消费带动非耐用品消费走强。3 月非耐用品消费多数改善，其中无店 面零售为主要贡献项，环比录得 2.7%，前值 0.2%；日用品商店、杂货店零售、食品饮料、 保健个护、加油站零售消费环比均升温，服饰、运动用品、餐饮酒吧环比降温。目前美国就 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|-------------------------|-------------------------------|---------------------------|-------------------------|-----------------------------|----- ...

河南省郑州市未来大道 69 号未来公寓 1201 室 电话：0371-65613449 辽宁省大连市沙河口区会展路 67 号 3 单元 17 层 4 号 电话：0411-84803386 地址：浙江省杭州市上城区九堡街道九源路 9 号 1 幢 12 楼 1205 室 电话：0571-89700168 宏观周报 免责声明 本报告仅向特定客户传送，未经铜冠金源期货投资咨询部授权许可，任何引用、 转载以及向第三方传播的行为均可能承担法律责任。本报告中的信息均来源于公 开可获得资料，铜冠金源期货投资咨询部力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性 及完整性不作任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 全国统一客服电话：400-700-0188 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 总部 | | | 上海市浦东新区源深路 273 号 | | | 电话： 021-68559999 （总机） | | | 传真： 021-68550055 | | | 上海营业部 | | | 上海 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 ⚫ 国内观点概述 核心观点 核心观点 1、美国 1、权益市场……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………10 三、经济数据预测 . 李婷 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------| | | | 宏观及大类资产月报 | | | | | | | 2024 年 4 月 10 日 | | | | 经济外强内温 , 资源品价格强势 | | | | 2024 年 4 月 8 日 | | | | | | | 核心观点 | | ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Q4 GDP was revised up to 3.4%, exceeding the expected 3.2%[12] - The PCE for February showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with expectations[58] - The core PCE year-on-year decreased to 2.8%, meeting expectations and marking the lowest level since March 2021[58] Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Confidence - The March consumer confidence index reached 79.4, the highest since July 2021, surpassing the expected 76.5[36] - Short-term inflation expectations fell to 2.9%, the lowest since December 2020, while long-term expectations remained at 2.8%[5] - The energy component of the PCE rose by 2.3% month-on-month, rebounding from a previous decline of -1.4%[3] Group 3: Manufacturing and Profit Trends - The manufacturing PMI for March recorded at 50.8, exceeding the expected 50.1, indicating a return to expansion[17] - Industrial profits for January-February increased by 10.2% year-on-year, marking a significant recovery from a previous decline[78] - Downstream manufacturing profits improved significantly, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.7%[15]

Profit Growth Analysis - In January-February 2024, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 9140.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, compared to a decline of 2.3% in 2023[2] - The profit data for January-February 2024 is lower than the same period in 2022 (11575.6 billion yuan) and 2021 (11140.1 billion yuan)[14] - The two-year compound year-on-year growth rate for January-February 2024 is recorded at -11.1%, further declining from the end of 2023[14] Industry and Enterprise Type Insights - Downstream manufacturing profits improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, recovering from a decline of 4.7% in 2023[18] - Private enterprises showed slower profit recovery, with a growth rate of 12.6% compared to 31.3% for foreign enterprises[20] - The gap between the official comparable year-on-year growth rate (10.2%) and the unadjusted rate (3.03%) indicates a significant adjustment in the base year, reflecting the weakness in smaller enterprises[12] Inventory and Demand Dynamics - The inventory turnover ratio decreased to 31% in January-February 2024, indicating a slowdown in enterprise turnover amid excess capacity and weak demand[27] - Finished product inventory growth was recorded at 2.4%, slightly up from 2.1% previously, but still reflects low inventory levels overall[27]