证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-06-03 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《费用下行支撑盈利改善，关税分担恐 倒压上游价格》 - 2025.05.28 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：资产价格切换或带来投资机会 ⚫ 核心观点 近期市场最吸引投资者关注就是美股在"解放日"后的大幅反弹 和长端美债收益率的上行。前者的主要原因是关税降级、宏观经济韧 性和一季度美股盈利超预期，而后者的主要原因是降息预期的偏鹰调 整和美债供给导致的期限溢价上升。但近期我们观察到这两类资产背 后的逻辑在发生变化。首先是关税的负向冲击很有可能再起，上一轮 "贸易战"中美博弈、拉扯了 2 年之久才达成最终协议，并且近期的 初请失业金人数、资本品订单等指标均指示了私人部门"抢跑"退去 后宏观经济走弱的风险。其次，当前的降息预期偏悲观，从海外投资 者的观点看，大多数认为今年降息的概率较低，同时减税法案在众议 院通过也让市场 ...

Group 1: Legal and Trade Policy Implications - The U.S. International Trade Court overturned Trump's equal tariff measures, stating they exceeded the authority granted by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [1] - The ruling questions the legality of tariffs including a 10% base tariff and equal tariffs, potentially leading to their cancellation, but does not affect tariffs based on Section 232 and Section 301 [2] - The court mandated that the administration cease the collection of related tariffs within 10 days, but did not require the refund of already collected tariffs [2] Group 2: Future Tariff Strategies - The ruling increases uncertainty in tariff policies, but the Trump administration may still impose tariffs using alternative legal frameworks such as Section 122, which allows temporary tariffs up to 15% for a maximum of 150 days [3] - Section 232 allows tariffs if imports threaten national security, but requires a cumbersome investigation process by the Department of Commerce [3] - Section 301 has not seen new tariffs this year, likely due to existing tariffs still in effect and limited room for additional tariffs under the Biden administration [3] Group 3: Market and Negotiation Impact - The court's decision limits the Trump administration's ability to impose tariffs, weakening its position in trade negotiations [4] - A potential strategy for the Trump administration could involve short-term tariffs under Section 122 to gain time for further investigations and legislation regarding specific industry tariffs [4] - Risks include uncertainty in higher court rulings and the fluctuating nature of trade negotiations [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated rapid growth in its performance, with 2024 revenue reaching 8.813 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.011 billion yuan, up 24.77% [4][10]. - The company operates three main business segments that have all shown significant growth, with revenue from molds, large component machinery, CNC machine tools, and others increasing by 22.73%, 20.31%, 29.30%, and 44.78% respectively [5]. - The company is expanding its global production capacity, with new factories in Thailand and Mexico enhancing its service capabilities [6]. Company Overview - Latest closing price: 61.34 yuan - Total shares: 800 million, circulating shares: 794 million - Total market capitalization: 49.1 billion yuan, circulating market capitalization: 48.7 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 63.42/34.51 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 15.3% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 24.24 [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.279 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.06%, and a net profit of 520 million yuan, up 29.96% [4]. - The company expects revenues for 2025-2027 to be 10.386 billion, 11.767 billion, and 13.076 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 17.85%, 13.29%, and 11.13% [10][12]. - The projected net profits for the same period are 2.356 billion, 2.700 billion, and 3.038 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17.13%, 14.61%, and 12.50% [10][12]. Future Outlook - The company is set to launch new products in the machine tool sector, including horizontal five-axis machining centers, which are expected to attract a growing customer base [7]. - A new high-end casting project is anticipated to boost revenue from large component machinery, with production expected to commence by mid-2025 [6].

Performance Overview - The Wande Micro Stock Index increased by 2.65% over the past week, ranking 2nd among 38 broad-based indices[4] - The index rose by 11.76% in the past month, ranking 1st among 38 broad-based indices[26] - Over the last quarter, the index saw a 17.92% increase, also ranking 1st among 38 broad-based indices[27] - In the past year, the index surged by 75.4%, ranking 2nd among 38 broad-based indices[29] Factor Analysis - The top five internal factors for the micro stocks this week include the leverage factor (0.143), trading volume factor (0.051), and PB inverse factor (0.042) with historical averages of -0.006, -0.08, and 0.034 respectively[5] - The bottom five factors include the unadjusted stock price factor (-0.19) and PE_TTM inverse factor (-0.143), with historical averages of -0.017 and 0.018 respectively[5] Market Sentiment and Predictions - The micro stocks are expected to reach a turning point soon, with a potential buy signal if the weekly drop exceeds 6%[6] - The current market conditions suggest limited room for further declines, indicating a possibility of maintaining high levels without a pullback[6] Calendar Effects - The Wande Micro Stock Index shows positive average returns on Tuesdays and Thursdays, while Mondays and Wednesdays tend to have negative average returns[7] - The index achieved an 84% win rate in February and a 90% win rate in March and May during the 2024-2025 period[7] Risk Factors - Key risks identified include policy risk, public sentiment risk, and liquidity risk[8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated rapid growth, with 2024 revenue reaching 8.813 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.011 billion yuan, up 24.77% [4][10]. - The company operates three main business segments, all contributing to its growth: molds, large component machinery products, and CNC machine tools, with respective revenue growth rates of 22.73%, 20.31%, and 29.30% [5]. - The company is expanding its global production capacity, with new factories in Thailand and Mexico, and has introduced energy-efficient electric heating vulcanizing machines, which have begun to see initial market applications [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 61.34 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 49.1 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 15.3% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.24 [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.279 billion yuan, a 29.06% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 520 million yuan, up 29.96% [4]. - The company forecasts revenues of 10.386 billion yuan, 11.767 billion yuan, and 13.076 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.356 billion yuan, 2.700 billion yuan, and 3.038 billion yuan [10][12]. Future Projections - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with projected revenue growth rates of 17.85%, 13.29%, and 11.13% for the years 2025 to 2027 [10]. - The introduction of new products in the machine tool segment and the establishment of a machine tool laboratory are anticipated to support ongoing innovation and market expansion [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][8]. Core Insights - The company, Lvtian Machinery, reported a revenue of 2.249 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.29%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 186 million yuan, with a growth of 3.44% [5][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 639 million yuan, a significant increase of 50.11%, and a net profit of 57 million yuan, up by 56.34% [5][6]. - The company is experiencing robust growth in its general machinery and high-pressure cleaning machine segments, with respective revenue increases of 14.20% and 70.07% in 2024 [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 19.26 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 3.3 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a total share capital of 172 million shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.83 [4]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to see revenues of 2.795 billion yuan, 3.463 billion yuan, and 4.266 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.24%, 23.91%, and 23.21% [8][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 251 million yuan, 322 million yuan, and 412 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 34.63%, 28.41%, and 28.16% [8][10]. Product Development and Strategy - The company is expanding its production capacity for general machinery, with a new project expected to complete its main construction in the second half of 2025, which will enhance its product variety and market competitiveness [7]. - Lvtian Machinery is focusing on developing high-value-added new products and aims to implement a global strategy for its proprietary brand, enhancing its resilience and market presence [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated rapid growth in performance, with 2024 revenue reaching 6.238 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.156 billion yuan, up 60.10% [5]. - The company has seen significant contributions from valves and parts, with exports accounting for over 60% of total sales [6]. - The gross profit margin has improved significantly, reaching 38.10% in 2024, an increase of 6.70 percentage points year-on-year [6]. - The company is expanding its product offerings in high-end markets and has made progress in developing several new products [7]. - The company is also diversifying its operations and gradually establishing overseas factories to enhance competitiveness in international markets [7]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.347 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.79%, and a net profit of 1.415 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 22.41% [8][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.84 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.10 [10][11]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a healthy growth trajectory, with expected revenues and net profits increasing steadily through 2027 [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [10][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.909 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.55% to 255 million yuan [4][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a significant revenue increase of 37.21% to 380 million yuan, although the net profit decreased by 3.95% to 39 million yuan [4][5]. - The company is experiencing a shift in product performance, with a decline in revenue from consumer products but a rapid increase in commercial products, which saw a year-on-year growth of 72.76% [5]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin decreased by 2.29 percentage points to 29.68% in 2024, with specific declines in consumer and commercial product margins [5]. - The company expects revenues of 2.180 billion, 2.447 billion, and 2.727 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.22%, 12.26%, and 11.42% [10][12]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 257 million yuan, with a slight increase of 0.70% compared to 2024 [10][12]. Market Trends - The heat pump industry is stabilizing, with the company planning to increase its investment in Europe to capitalize on the recovery of the market [6][7]. - The liquid cooling temperature control sector is identified as a new growth point, with the company achieving over 80% revenue growth in this area in 2024 [7][10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its customer base in key areas such as energy storage and computing services, while also targeting new clients and applications [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated rapid growth in performance, with 2024 revenue reaching 6.238 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.156 billion yuan, up 60.10% [5]. - The company is expanding its product offerings in high-end markets, with significant advancements in various product lines and a focus on international sales, which now account for over 60% of total sales [6][7]. - The gross profit margin has improved significantly, reaching 38.10% in 2024, an increase of 6.70 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.556 billion yuan, a 14.44% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 263 million yuan, up 33.52% [5]. - The company expects revenues for 2025-2027 to be 7.347 billion, 8.297 billion, and 9.289 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.79%, 12.93%, and 11.95% [8][10]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 1.415 billion, 1.617 billion, and 1.834 billion yuan, with growth rates of 22.41%, 14.34%, and 13.42% [8][10]. Product and Market Development - The company is actively expanding into downstream application fields, including nuclear power, oil and gas equipment, and wind energy, while also developing new products and enhancing its technological capabilities [7]. - The company is establishing overseas factories to strengthen its competitive position in international markets, leveraging sales networks in the Americas, Europe, and Southeast Asia [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][8]. Core Insights - The company, Lvtian Machinery, reported a revenue of 2.249 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.29%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 186 million yuan, with a growth of 3.44% [5][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 639 million yuan, a significant increase of 50.11%, and a net profit of 57 million yuan, up by 56.34% [5][6]. - The company's product segments showed robust growth, particularly in high-pressure cleaning machines, which saw a revenue increase of 70.07% in 2024 [6]. Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin decreased by 3.96 percentage points to 18.05% in 2024, with specific declines in the gross margin of general power machinery and high-pressure cleaning products [6]. - The company is expected to see revenues of 2.795 billion yuan, 3.463 billion yuan, and 4.266 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.24%, 23.91%, and 23.21% [8][10]. Production Capacity and Strategy - The company is expanding its production capacity for general power machinery, with a new project expected to complete its main construction in the second half of 2025, which will enhance its competitiveness in the global market [7]. - Lvtian Machinery is focusing on developing high-value-added new products and a global brand strategy, aiming to enhance its product performance while reducing manufacturing costs [7]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 251 million yuan, 322 million yuan, and 412 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.26, 10.33, and 8.06 [8][10].