Report Overview - Report Title: "How to View Photovoltaic Convertible Bonds under the Background of 'Anti-Involution' - Convertible Bond Weekly Report 20250712" - Report Type: Fixed Income Asset Allocation | Comment Report - Report Date: 2025-07-16 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - From July 7 to July 12, 2025, the convertible bond market continued its mild recovery, with increased trading activity. Medium - sized and convertible bonds with expected elasticity performed relatively well. The equity market was highly differentiated, with low - valuation and cyclical manufacturing sectors becoming the main investment directions [2][6]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector has low market attention and congestion. Photovoltaic convertible bonds have cost - effective valuations. Driven by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry's fundamentals are expected to recover, and the holdings of active equity funds may gradually increase [2][6]. - The valuation of the convertible bond market is differentiated by the parity range. The low - parity range shows significant differentiation, while the valuation of the high - parity range has increased. The implied volatility has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious [2][6]. - The primary market supply of convertible bonds is steadily released, and the clause game shows intensified differences. It is recommended to focus on the layout opportunities in the low - valuation and high - safety - margin directions, taking into account the rhythm and rotation [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Weekly Review - **Photovoltaic Equipment Sector**: The market attention and capital participation of the photovoltaic equipment sector are at a relatively low historical level. The allocation ratio of active funds has significantly decreased, and the turnover and trading volume are weak. There are signs of chip clearing, and the congestion is at a relatively low historical level. Under the "anti - involution" policy, the supply - side clearing is expected to repair the fundamentals. Photovoltaic convertible bonds have strong bond - bottom returns and valuation advantages, showing valuation repair and risk - return matching [9]. - **A - share Market**: The A - share market continued to rise in shock, with obvious style differentiation. Funds were concentrated on low - valuation and cyclical manufacturing sectors. The real estate, steel and other sectors led the gains, and the trading activity increased significantly, reflecting the strengthened expectation of valuation repair. There was increased differentiation within the growth direction, with some sectors maintaining high popularity and others experiencing a decline in trading. The trading rhythm of the market accelerated, and the rotation characteristics were enhanced [9]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: The convertible bond market continued to rise moderately, with increased trading activity. Medium - sized convertible bonds performed well, and the style slightly inclined to elastic varieties. The valuation of the convertible bond market showed a differentiated trend according to the parity range. The implied volatility fluctuated and declined, and the sentiment became more cautious. In terms of industries, the financial and pharmaceutical sectors attracted capital inflows, and the cyclical sectors were relatively strong [9]. - **Primary Market of Convertible Bonds**: The primary market of convertible bonds maintained a stable rhythm. One convertible bond was open for subscription, two new bonds were listed, and five companies updated their issuance plans. The issuance momentum is expected to continue to be steadily released. In terms of clause games, there were no proposals for downward revisions, and some bonds clearly stated not to revise downward. Multiple varieties announced forced redemptions, and some promised not to redeem in advance [9]. 3.2 Market Theme Weekly Review - **Equity Theme**: The A - share market continued its structural differentiation, with increased short - term trading activity. Gaming funds continued to concentrate on high - elasticity directions, and the financial technology theme was strong. The new energy sector was highly differentiated, and the digital economy showed a structural recovery. The overall market trading sentiment was high, and the theme rotation accelerated [24]. - **Convertible Bond Theme**: The convertible bond market continued to rise, with the increase rate moderately narrowing. The trading activity reached a recent high, and medium - sized convertible bonds performed better. The valuation of the convertible bond market was differentiated by the parity and market price ranges. The implied volatility declined, and the market sentiment was slightly cautious. The non - banking, coal, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, and the trading volume was concentrated in the pharmaceutical and biochemical sectors [27]. 3.3 Market Weekly Tracking - **Main Stock Indexes**: The main A - share stock indexes continued to strengthen, with small and medium - sized and science - innovation stocks performing prominently. The market capital showed a net outflow, but the scale of the net outflow decreased, indicating a marginal improvement in market sentiment [29][30]. - **Industry Performance**: The A - share market showed a structural market dominated by low - valuation sectors. The real estate sector led the gains, followed by the steel, comprehensive, and non - banking financial sectors. The automobile sector led the decline, and some previous hot sectors faced correction pressure. The market capital was concentrated on low - valuation cyclical sectors and also considered structural opportunities in the growth track [34]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: The convertible bond market continued to rise, with the increase rate moderately narrowing. Medium - sized convertible bonds performed better, and the trading activity reached a recent high. The valuation of the convertible bond market was differentiated by the parity and market price ranges. The implied volatility declined, and the market sentiment was slightly cautious. The non - banking, coal, and social service sectors led the gains, and the pharmaceutical, basic chemical, and power equipment sectors had the highest trading volume [45][55]. 3.4 Primary Market Tracking and Clause Game - **New Bond Issuance**: One convertible bond was open for subscription (Guanghe Convertible Bond), and two new bonds were listed (Huachen Convertible Bond and Luwei Convertible Bond). Five listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, including three accepted by the exchange and two approved by the general meeting of shareholders [66][67]. - **Clause Game**: There were no proposals for downward revisions of convertible bonds during the week, and some bonds clearly stated not to revise downward. Multiple varieties announced forced redemptions, and some promised not to redeem in advance. There were 3 convertible bonds that announced they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 13 that announced no downward revisions, 2 that announced they were expected to trigger redemptions, 3 that announced no early redemptions, and 4 that announced early redemptions [75][80].

Group 1: Foreign Capital Flow - In Q2 2025, northbound funds showed a net inflow of approximately 53.74 billion CNY, an increase compared to Q1 2025[2] - Foreign capital in A-shares saw significant net inflows in the financial, industrial, telecommunications, and healthcare sectors, each exceeding 10 billion CNY[6] - In contrast, foreign capital in the Hong Kong stock market experienced a net outflow of about 113.3 billion HKD in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025[6] Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology and financial sectors were among the top performers in the Hong Kong market, contributing to significant profit-taking activities in Q2 2025[8] - Specific A-share manufacturing leaders attracted substantial foreign investment during their Hong Kong IPOs, particularly in the energy storage sector[19] - The banking sector saw a divergence in foreign investment, with northbound funds increasing their holdings in A-share banks while foreign intermediaries reduced their holdings in Hong Kong banks[27] Group 3: Investment Trends - The top sectors for foreign capital inflow in the Hong Kong market included information technology, industrials, and essential consumer goods[6] - Notably, the energy storage devices and telecommunications equipment sectors attracted significant foreign investment in Hong Kong[20] - The report highlights a trend where foreign capital is favoring technology and new consumption sectors in Hong Kong, while A-shares are more focused on industrial and financial sectors[22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039.SH) is "Buy" and is maintained [11]. Core Views - The company reported a total winning bid amount of 37.559 billion yuan in Q2, representing a year-on-year increase of 25%. The cumulative winning bid for the first half of the year reached 72.24 billion yuan, up 22.2% year-on-year [2][8]. - The company focuses on its infrastructure business, with significant growth in orders. The winning bids in the infrastructure sector for the first half of the year totaled 61.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.88% [13]. - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual rollout of highway projects in Sichuan Province in the second half of 2024, with a total investment of approximately 840 billion yuan for 36 highway projects [13]. - The demand for highway construction in Sichuan is projected to remain strong, with an expected total scale of about 20,000 kilometers by 2035 [13]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 50% to 60% for 2025, enhancing its dividend appeal [13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Sichuan Road and Bridge focuses on infrastructure projects, with a significant increase in winning bids in Q2 and the first half of the year [2][8]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 107.238 billion yuan for 2024, with projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 114.062 billion yuan, 123.626 billion yuan, and 135.262 billion yuan respectively [19]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to see accelerated project initiation in the second half of 2024, leading to a positive outlook for order conversion in Q3 and Q4 [13]. - The anticipated strong demand for infrastructure in Sichuan, coupled with the company's strategic positioning, suggests a favorable growth trajectory [13].

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 通胀如期回升，美联储或继续观望 ——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月，美国 CPI 上升略超预期，核心 CPI 符合预期。那么结构上的走势有何具体变化？ 对美联储降息有何影响？其一，地缘局势升温，使能源环比涨幅上升。其二，汽车、服装环比 一下一上，核心商品通胀压力上升；住房通胀环比增速回落，核心服务通胀压力温和。往前看， 我们认为：短期，美国就业稳健、通胀温和、关税暂缓期延长，美联储决策空间充足，7 月大 概率继续观望；中期，各国贸易谈判的结果仍是重点，关税实质落地规模，及其对美国经济的 影响将是决定后续货币政策的关键。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 通胀如期回升，美联储或继续观望 2] ——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [10]. Core Insights - The Central Urban Work Conference held on July 14-15 emphasized the transition of urbanization in China from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, focusing on quality urban renewal rather than large-scale expansion [8][13]. - The conference outlined key tasks for urban development, including optimizing modern urban systems, building innovative cities, and enhancing livability and sustainability [13]. - The report highlights the historical significance of this conference, marking a shift towards high-quality urban development, contrasting with previous meetings that focused on rapid expansion and basic infrastructure [13]. - Future funding for urban renewal is expected to come from various sources, including special central budget investments and local government bonds, indicating potential for increased capital inflow into the sector [13]. - The report suggests that the construction sector should focus on leading companies and the entire design-construction-operation chain, particularly in urban renewal projects [13]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Central Urban Work Conference took place in Beijing, with significant speeches from top leaders, indicating a strategic shift in urbanization policy [8][9]. Market Performance - The report includes a market performance comparison over the past 12 months, showing a relative performance of the construction and engineering sector against the CSI 300 index [11]. Related Research - The report references several related studies that discuss urban renewal and the construction industry's response to current challenges [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - In the first half of the year, narrow infrastructure investment reached 9.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a sequential decrease of 1.0 percentage points. Broad infrastructure investment totaled 12.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, with a sequential decrease of 1.2 percentage points [2][8][13] - Water conservancy investment growth has slowed down, while transportation investment has accelerated significantly. In June, water conservancy and public facility management investment recorded a negative growth of -5.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of -8.4%. In contrast, transportation investment increased by 9.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in railway and road investments [13] - Cement production showed weakness in June, but high-frequency data indicated improvement in July. Cement output in the first half of the year decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, while July data showed a slight recovery in demand [13] - The overall economic data for the first half of the year showed stable growth, with marginal weakening in investment. However, infrastructure is expected to remain supported throughout the year due to the gradual use of fiscal funds and new policies [13] - Emphasis on the investment value of central and state-owned construction enterprises, with potential "real dividend" attributes in certain quality segments and regions [13] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - Narrow infrastructure investment was 9.2 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year, with a sequential decrease of 1.0 percentage points. Broad infrastructure investment was 12.4 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year, with a sequential decrease of 1.2 percentage points [2][8][13] Sector Performance - Water conservancy investment growth has turned negative, while transportation investment has accelerated. In June, water conservancy investment decreased by 5.2% month-on-month, while transportation investment increased by 9.5% year-on-year [13] Cement Production - Cement production in the first half of the year decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with signs of recovery in July [13] Economic Outlook - The overall economic data indicates stable growth, with infrastructure expected to remain supported due to fiscal policies [13] Investment Opportunities - Focus on the investment value of central and state-owned construction enterprises, particularly in quality segments and regions [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The report indicates that the impact of China Life's planned share reduction of up to 0.70% is limited, primarily driven by its own asset allocation needs, and is not expected to significantly affect the stock price [2][6]. - Hangzhou Bank is recognized as a leader in profit growth among bank stocks and has superior asset quality, with a sustainable high ROE advantage in the medium to long term [2][12]. - The completion of the convertible bond conversion has cleared its impact on the stock price, paving the way for a new round of valuation recovery [12]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On July 15, it was announced that China Life plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 50.79 million shares, representing 0.70% of the total share capital, through centralized bidding or block trading within three months [6]. Event Commentary - The report emphasizes that the reduction in shares by China Life is minor and does not indicate a shift in insurance capital allocation strategies towards bank stocks. The bank's fundamentals remain strong, with a stable non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 530%, the highest in the industry [12][12]. - The bank's asset quality and profit growth are expected to continue leading the industry, supported by a robust economic environment in Zhejiang province, where infrastructure investment and loan growth are significantly above national averages [12]. Financial Data and Forecasts - For 2024, total assets are projected to reach approximately 2.11 trillion yuan, with net profit expected to grow to around 16.98 billion yuan. The bank's net interest income is forecasted to increase to 24.46 billion yuan in 2024 [28]. - The report anticipates a stable performance post-conversion of the convertible bonds, with a projected ROE of 15.6% for 2025, maintaining a competitive edge in the industry [12][28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 850 to 960 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55% to 75%. The net profit for Q2 2025 is projected to be between 186 to 295 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -31% to +10% [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 850 to 960 million yuan for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 55% to 75%. The net profit for Q2 2025 is expected to be between 186 to 295 million yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -31% to +10% [2][7]. Business Analysis - The company has completed the acquisition of COFCO Packaging, leading to a significant revenue increase of 57% year-on-year in Q1. This acquisition has reduced the risk of high revenue concentration from a single customer, with the current major customer revenue share dropping to approximately 20% [12]. - The three-piece can business is expected to maintain stable performance, while the two-piece can business shows potential for profit improvement. The company plans to relocate excess production capacity overseas, which may provide opportunities for price recovery in the domestic market [12]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic metal packaging industry, with a robust profit base from the three-piece can segment. The two-piece can production capacity is expected to exceed 25 billion cans, capturing nearly 40% of the market share. The integration with COFCO Packaging is anticipated to enhance the supply-demand dynamics and competitive landscape in the domestic two-piece can market [12]. - The company aims to drive growth through improved gross margins in the two-piece can segment, expansion into overseas markets, and increased consumption demand domestically [12]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.41 billion, 1.42 billion, and 1.71 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 11, and 9 times [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" [12] Core Insights - The report highlights that the overseas manufacturing trend is accelerating, with injection molding machines expected to set a global competitive benchmark for production equipment. In 2024, the import value of injection molding machines is projected to be $437 million, while the export value is expected to reach $2.089 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $1.652 billion, indicating a trend of acceleration in recent years [3][7][29]. Summary by Sections Global Competitive Landscape - China is the largest manufacturer and exporter of injection molding machines, maintaining its position as the leading exporter. In 2023, China's injection molding machine exports amounted to $1.714 billion, with projections for 2024 indicating an increase to $2.089 billion. The trade surplus is expected to expand to $1.652 billion [3][29][51]. Demand Side Dynamics - The demand for injection molding machines is diversifying, with emerging markets showing significant growth potential. In 2023, China's plastic consumption accounted for approximately 23% of global consumption, indicating substantial room for growth in overseas markets [7][41][43]. Supply Side Changes - The global export landscape for injection molding machines is evolving, with China's competitive edge becoming increasingly prominent. China has maintained its status as the largest exporter of injection molding machines, with other notable exporting countries including Austria, Japan, Germany, and Canada [8][51]. Export Market Opportunities - The report details that exports to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Russia, Africa, and Oceania are expected to continue growing rapidly, particularly with a projected 105% increase in exports to Southeast Asia by May 2025, which will account for 45% of total exports [3][9]. Leading Companies' Globalization Efforts - Major domestic companies such as Haitian International and Yizumi are accelerating their globalization efforts, with overseas revenues projected to reach 6.016 billion yuan and 1.395 billion yuan respectively in 2024. These companies aim for a 50% export ratio, indicating a significant increase in their global market share [10][12].

The provided content does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it include their construction processes, formulas, evaluations, or backtesting results. The report primarily discusses industry performance insights based on earnings forecasts, sectoral trends, and historical market reactions to earnings announcements. It does not delve into quantitative modeling or factor analysis.