证券研究报告 酒类出海系列报告（三）： 东南亚篇：白酒行业突围新蓝海，第二增长曲线或渐显 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 证券分析师 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号：S1060521030001 王 萌 投资咨询资格编号：S1060522030001 王星云 投资咨询资格编号：S1060523100001 2025年3月2日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 2 白酒国内承压，布局东南亚有望新转机。国内白酒行业面临经济增速放缓、内需疲软及库存高企等多重压力，出海战略成为突围关键之一。2024 年，白酒出口金额同比增速16.61%，其中东南亚市场贡献10.60亿元（占比23.66%，同比增长25.98% ），依托区域经济增长（ IMF预计未来5年 东盟GDP增速6%）、人口红利（60%人口<35岁）及消费升级趋势（烈酒CAGR 2.91%），东南亚有望成为白酒全球化重要增长极。 新兴市场经济动力强，人口年轻化且华人聚集。从经济增速来看，IMF预测2024-2029年东盟GDP整体保持6%的持续增长态势，快于全球未来 两年3.3%的GDP增长水平。人均酒精消费量持续增长：2000-2019年，东南亚各国人均饮酒量整体 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may not reach a swift resolution, providing short-term support for oil prices. Recent data shows a slight decline in WTI crude oil futures by 0.46% and Brent oil futures by 1.47% from February 21 to February 28, 2025. Geopolitical risks are expected to remain a concern, particularly with ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine [9][10]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemical - The report highlights that the OPEC+ group is considering delaying its voluntary production cut exit, which could alleviate supply pressures in the first half of 2025. Additionally, U.S. sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil exports are expected to support oil prices due to reduced supply concerns [10][9]. Fluorochemicals - Demand for refrigerants is driven by national subsidies, with production aligning with sales. The report anticipates continued price increases for refrigerants due to tight supply and improving demand. The new subsidy policy for household appliances is expected to stimulate demand significantly, with a projected 13.5% year-on-year increase in air conditioning production in March 2025 [9][10]. Fertilizers - The report notes strict controls on new phosphate and ammonium production capacity in China, which is expected to boost demand during the spring farming season. This could lead to an upward trend in the fertilizer market [61]. Chemical Fibers - There is an expectation of increased demand in March, with polyester prices showing a slight increase. The report suggests that the market is optimistic about the upcoming demand recovery [72]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is expected to see an upward trend due to inventory reduction and improving fundamentals. The report recommends focusing on companies involved in domestic substitution and cyclical recovery [79].

有色金属与新材料 贵金属-黄金：短期波动加剧，长期仍看上行。 截至 2.28，COMEX 金主力合约环比下跌 2.79%至 2867.3 美元/盎司；SPDR 黄金 ETF持 平为 904.38 吨。短期来看 COMEX-LBMA 黄金价差逐步收敛，全球 黄金贸易异动预计逐步缓和。海外地缘政治局势短期边际缓和迹象显 现，避险情绪或暂时降温，此外黄金市场对于特朗普关税政策前期已 有相对充分的计价，叠加金价冲高后，部分资金止盈需求上升，预计 黄金短期或进入震荡阶段。中期来看，美国再通胀预期以及长期美元 信用边际走弱仍为黄金长期定价的核心逻辑，预计金价长期仍将震荡 偏强运行。 工业金属：佤邦复产预期升温，关注锡利空情绪释放后布局机会。 2025 年 3 月 2 日 有色金属与新材料周报 短期扰动发酵，有色金属价格震荡整理 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24/01 24/04 24/07 24/10 25/01 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 核心观点： 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com ...

食品饮料周报 基本面企稳向好，行业配置价值 凸显 证券研究报告 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 食品饮料团队 分析师：张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 2025年3月2日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 食品饮料周报-观点 白酒行业 本周食品指数（中信）累计涨跌幅+1.54%。涨跌幅前三的个股为：海融科技（+29.27%）、佳禾食品（+27.46%）、好想你 （+25.80%）；涨跌幅后三的个股为洽洽食品（-4.28%）、甘化科工（-5.64%）、莲花控股（-6.95%）。 观点：年内建议关注零食和餐饮产业链的投资机会。（1）高景气赛道。零食的渠道红利和产品红利仍在，一方面新渠道红利（零 食量贩、电商等）尚未结束，另一方面制造型企业不断推出新品抢占消费者心智，行业整体维持高景气。 ...

证券研究报告 酒类出海系列报告（三）： 东南亚篇：白酒行业突围新蓝海，第二增长曲线或渐显 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号：S1060521030001 王 萌 投资咨询资格编号：S1060522030001 王星云 投资咨询资格编号：S1060523100001 2025年3月2日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 2 白酒国内承压，布局东南亚有望新转机。国内白酒行业面临经济增速放缓、内需疲软及库存高企等多重压力，出海战略成为突围关键之一。2024 年，白酒出口金额同比增速16.61%，其中东南亚市场贡献10.60亿元（占比23.66%，同比增长25.98% ），依托区域经济增长（ IMF预计未来5年 东盟GDP增速6%）、人口红利（60%人口<35岁）及消费升级趋势（烈酒CAGR 2.91%），东南亚有望成为白酒全球化重要增长极。 新兴市场经济动力强，人口年轻化且华人聚集。从经济增速来看，IMF预测2024-2029年东盟GDP整体保持6%的持续增长态势，快于全球未来 两年3.3%的GDP增长水平。人均酒精消费量持续增长：2000-2019年，东南亚各国人均饮酒量整体呈现上升趋势 ...

证券研究报告 【另类资产观察】REITs转跌，可转债 建议关注低价、地产产业链 证券分析师 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519060001 陈蔚宁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524070001 2025年3月2日 2025年第4期总第119期 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 本周核心观点 市场回顾 REITs跑输股票、债券。本期（2.14-2.28,以下同） REITs指数涨跌幅为-1.71%，各指数涨跌幅表现:可转债>债券>红利股>沪深300>REITs。国 泰君安济南能源供热REIT、招商基金公路高速公路REIT、华夏中国交建高速REIT表现最好，涨跌幅分别为45.03%、5.75%、3.14%。 可转债上涨0.42%，与股指背离。本期权益整体下跌，仅小盘风格微涨。本期后半期，TMT回调而大宗商品、传统周期上涨，交易主线由成长切 换至房地产产业链企稳，钢铁、房地产、建筑材料、建筑装饰涨幅居前。可转债逆势上涨，且低价转债策略涨幅最高，主因低价转债集中的电 力设备、电子正股上涨。本期可转债涨跌幅，新兴周期（1.41%）＞传统周期（0.84%）＞消费（0.14%）＞稳定（0.08%）＞大宗商品（-0.07%） ...

证券研究报告 中国ICT支出稳定增长， 全球AI PC渗透加速 电子行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 电子团队 分析师：付强 S1060520070001（证券投资咨询） 郭冠君 S1060524050003（证券投资咨询） 邮箱： FUQIANG021@pingan.com.cn GUOGUANJUN625@pingan.com.cn 2025年3月2日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要 行业要闻及简评： 1）根据IDC数据，预计2028年中国ICT市场规模有望增长至7517.6亿美元。其中，从企业视角来看， 2024年中国企业级ICT市场规模约2693.6亿美元，相较2023年增长11.7%。2）根据Canalys数据，2024年，全球AI PC占 PC总出货量比例达17%，其中，苹果以54%的市场份额处于全球市场首位，其次为联想和惠普，市场份额各占12%。分季 度来看，2024年第四季度全球AI PC出货量达1540万台，环比18%，占总货量23%。3）根据TrendForce数据，2024年第四 季度全球DRAM产业收入达到286亿美元，环比增加9.9%，其中，三星以39.3%的市占率位列全球 ...

策略配置研究 2025 年 2 月 28 日 策 略 报 告 策 略 动 态 跟 踪 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请通过合法途径获取本公司研究报告，如经由未经许可的渠道获得研究报告，请慎重使用并注意阅读研究报告尾页的声明内容。 告 策略动态跟踪 2025 年两会前瞻：总量&行业联合解读 "两会"政策前瞻：预计总量政策延续积极，结构聚焦扩内需/新质生产力。 2025 年全国"两会"政策有望延续 2024 年中央经济工作会议基调。①经 济目标：预计 2025 年全国 GDP 目标设定在 5%左右，持平上年；就业目 标或保持稳定，失业率目标定在 5.5%左右或以内，城镇新增就业人数 1200 万人左右或以上；物价目标预计从 3%下调至 2%。②货币政策：预计延续 "适度宽松"的基调，2025 年全年预计降准 2 次、降息 30-50BP，节奏 上，降准可能落在政府债供给较大的月份，降息则需要关注内外部的约束 演绎的节奏，关注国内银行净息差、财政发力节奏和汇率，以及海外货币 政策情况。③财政政策：预计延续"更加积极"的基调，2025 年预算内赤 字率预计从 3%提升至 4%，赤字规模为 5.7 万亿，较 2024 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company achieved record high revenue and profit in Q4 2024, with revenue reaching 466 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.21%, and net profit of 144 million yuan, up 40.62% year-on-year [4][7]. - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, with increased demand from downstream customers, leading to enhanced product upgrades and R&D efforts [7][10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix and increasing R&D investment in automotive electronics, with successful launches of various new chips [10][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 466 million yuan, with a growth rate of 44.21% year-on-year, and net profit is expected to be 144 million yuan, reflecting a 40.62% increase [4][11]. - The gross margin for 2024 is 55.48%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is 30.99%, a slight decrease of 0.79 percentage points year-on-year [7][12]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.00 yuan per 10 shares and increase capital reserves by issuing 3 additional shares for every 10 shares held [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to 710 million yuan in 2025, 1.047 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.483 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 52.4%, 47.4%, and 41.7% [6][11]. - Net profit is projected to reach 223 million yuan in 2025, 332 million yuan in 2026, and 477 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 54.7%, 48.5%, and 44.0% respectively [6][11]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has successfully launched a series of high-performance chips for automotive applications, including video bridge and processing chips, which have been adopted by several well-known automotive manufacturers [8][10]. - The automotive chip and system solutions division was established to focus on various automotive electronic applications, enhancing the company's market share in this sector [10][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong investment rating for the biopharmaceutical industry, particularly for the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) sector, which is expected to benefit from multiple factors in 2025 [2]. Core Insights - The TCM sector is anticipated to experience a gradual reduction in performance pressure in 2025, driven by factors such as improved earnings, favorable policies, decreasing costs, rising demand, and consolidation within the industry [4][6]. - The report identifies five main investment opportunities within the TCM sector, including high-end OTC products, state-owned enterprise reforms, hospital-based TCM, dividend-paying assets, and turnaround situations for struggling companies [4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Outlook - The TCM sector faced overall revenue decline in 2024, with a total revenue of 270.61 billion yuan, down 3.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 29.88 billion yuan, down 8.55% year-on-year [10]. - The number of companies forecasting negative net profit growth in 2024 is 22 out of 34, while only 12 companies expect positive growth [16]. 2. Policy Developments - The third batch of national TCM procurement results showed an average price reduction of 63%, but the impact on listed companies is limited due to the small number of affected products [20]. - A new essential drug list is expected to be released in 2025, which may include more TCM products, enhancing their market presence [24]. 3. Cost Factors - The TCM material price index has been declining since July 2024, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures for TCM companies and improve their gross margins starting in 2025 [28]. 4. Demand Dynamics - The recent increase in flu cases has driven demand for related treatment products, leading to a quicker clearance of inventory for cold and cough medications [34]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The TCM industry is experiencing frequent mergers and acquisitions, which are likely to enhance industry concentration and provide performance flexibility for related listed companies [39]. 6. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights five key investment themes: 1. High-end OTC TCM products, particularly those using natural bezoar as a key ingredient, are expected to see improved margins as supply stabilizes [45][54]. 2. State-owned enterprise reforms are anticipated to yield positive changes in management and strategic planning [7]. 3. Hospital-based TCM products are expected to gain market share due to regulatory support [7]. 4. Companies with strong cash flow and high dividend potential are viewed favorably [7]. 5. Companies currently facing challenges are expected to improve as inventory pressures ease [7]. 7. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Kunming Pharmaceutical, Tongrentang, Darentang, Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical, Dong'e Ejiao, China Resources Sanjiu, Yunnan Baiyao, Tianshili, Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, and others for potential investment opportunities [4].