农产品日报 | 2025-12-16 需求承接有限，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11305元/吨，较前交易日变动-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.18%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.59元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.05元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+285，较前交易日变动+210；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.84元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.19元/公斤，现货基差LH03+535，较前交易日变动+220；四川 地区外三元生猪价格12.25元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+945，较前交易日变动+250。 据农业农村部监测，12月15日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.66，比上周五上升0.64个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为133.60，比上周五上升0.73个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.40元/公斤，比上周五下降0.6%； 牛肉66.03元/公斤，比上周五下降0.3%；羊肉62.50元/公斤，比上周五下降1.0%；鸡蛋7.48元/公斤，比上周五下降 0.1%；白条鸡18.01元/公斤，比上周五上升 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-16 郑棉突破万四关口，白糖再创阶段新低 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 白糖观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约14000元/吨，较前一日变动+165元/吨，幅度+1.19%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价14884元/吨，较前一日变动-12元/吨，现货基差CF01+884，较前一日变动-177；3128B棉全国均价15060元/ 吨，较前一日变动-2元/吨，现货基差CF01+1060，较前一日变动-167。 近期市场资讯，印度籽棉进入集中上市阶段，12日2025/26年度棉花上市量折皮棉约4.2万吨，包含来自特伦甘纳邦 1.4万吨、马哈拉施特拉邦8840吨及古吉拉特邦5950吨。据悉，当日印度棉花公司（CCI）抛储约7.5万吨。具体来 看，2024/25年度S-6竞拍底价在51500卢比/坎地，折约72.85美分/磅。据悉，CCI新年度累计籽棉收购量折皮棉在49.3 万吨。此外，CCI上年度陈棉库存在11.7万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡上行，突破万四整数关口。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度 全球棉花产需双减 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of MSC in the first half of January continued to rise, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first week of the first half of January [1]. - The 12 - month contract delivery settlement price may be between 1600 - 1700 points, and the actual SCFIS announcement should be monitored [4]. - For the EC2602 contract, attention should be paid to the shipping companies' willingness to support prices under high capacity. If the price - supporting period is extended, the 2 - month contract may be at parity with the 12 - month contract [5]. - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downward [6]. - The strategy suggests that the 12 - month contract will fluctuate, and the 2 - month contract will fluctuate with an upward bias, and there is no arbitrage opportunity at present [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Different shipping companies have different price trends. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price decreased from the third week of December to WEEK52, while HPL's price increased from the second half of December to the first half of January. MSC and other companies also released price increase letters for January [1][2]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Due to the continuous turmoil in the Red Sea, Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched a Cape of Good Hope network, and there is no specific time to change the east - west route to pass through the Red Sea. The US is investigating whether Israel violated the cease - fire agreement [2]. 2. Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity in December was 326,000 TEU, 322,700 TEU in January, and 276,700 TEU in February. There were 4 TBNs in January and 9 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in February, all from the OA Alliance [3]. 3. Contract Analysis - **12 - Month Contract**: The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the three - phase SCFIS on December 15th, 22nd, and 29th. The freight rate center in the first half of December was revised down to around 2100 - 2200 US dollars/FEU, and the final delivery settlement price may be between 1600 - 1700 points [4]. - **EC2602 Contract**: The last trading day is February 9, 2026. The delivery settlement price reflects the spot price center at the end of January. Maersk and MSC have announced price increase letters for January, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first half of January and the maintenance of high freight rates [5]. - **Far - Month Contracts**: The probability of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation in 2026 is high, which will increase the effective capacity supply and suppress the far - month contract freight rates and valuations [6]. 4. Market Data - As of December 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 63,961 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 38,062 lots. The closing prices of different contracts varied [7]. - In 2025, 250 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 23, 2025, 75 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU were delivered [7].

油脂日报 | 2025-12-16 大豆利空不断，油脂承压震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8492.00元/吨，环比变化-60元，幅度-0.70%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7940.00 元/吨，环比变化-54.00元，幅度-0.68%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9196.00元/吨，环比变化-151.00元，幅度-1.62%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8530.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.23%，现货基差P05+38.00，环比变化 +40.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8350.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元/吨，幅度-0.71%，现货基差Y05+410.00， 环比变化-6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9680.00元/吨，环比变化-180.00元，幅度-1.83%，现货基差 OI05+484.00，环比变化-29.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国农业部（USDA）公布数据，民间出口商报告对中国出口销售13.6万吨大豆，于2025/2026 年度交货。美国大豆市场年度始于9月1日。据外媒报道，巴西农业咨询机构AgRural表示，截至上周四，巴 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-16 苹果双节备货较慢，红枣新货库存增加 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9232元/吨，较前一日变动-287元/吨，幅度-3.02%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1032，较前一日变动+287；陕西洛川70# 以 上半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-832，较前一日变动+287。 近期市场资讯，库存晚富士整体出货仍显一般，部分产区果农货要价有所松动，价格走弱后成交暂无明显好转。 西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果农两级货源为主，成交有限，甘肃部分产区果农一般货源开始交易，价格区间随 质量下滑略降低，成交尚可；部分客商包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区零星出库，外贸渠道小果走货放缓，少 量维纳斯、奶油果按需出库，其余货源基本尚未开始交易。栖霞80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/斤，65#、 70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农货半商品出库价格3.8-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农一般通货出库 价格3. ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-16 外盘出现回调，内盘波动增加 市场分析 1、\t12月15日地区价格：山东市场，4400-4500；东北市场，4080-4300；华北市场，4300-4450；华东市场，4320-4475； 沿江市场，4580-4960；西北市场，4150-4400；华南市场，4390-4500。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷605美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，丁烷595美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4706元/吨，跌77元/吨，丁烷4628元/吨，跌77元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷599美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，丁烷589美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4659元/吨，跌77元/吨，丁烷4582元/吨，跌76元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日外盘丙丁烷掉期价格回落，但近期整体表现强于内盘，到岸成本受到一定支撑。现货方面，山东区域小幅下 跌，其余区域维稳为主，整体成交尚可，卖方库存无忧。近期随着丙烷原料进口成本上涨，国内PDH装置利润承 压，弹性需求受到 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-12-16 下游复合肥情绪观望，尿素震荡 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-15，尿素主力收盘1629元/吨（+4）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1670 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1700元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1680元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：71 元/吨（-14）；河南基差：41元/吨（-24）；江苏基差：51元/吨（-14）；尿素生产利润170元/吨（-10），出口利润844 元/吨（-30）。 供应端：截至2025-12-15，企业产能利用率81.85%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为123.42 万吨（-5.63），港口样本 库存量为12.30 万吨（+1.80）。 需求端：截至2025-12-15，复合肥产能利用率40.62%（+0.09%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为61.86%（+0.20%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.94日（-0.41）。 尿素现货价格松动，下游刚需采购。供应端四季度气头检修12月逐渐开始，前期煤头企业检修逐步恢复，目前2025 年新增产能全部投产，尿素日产量小幅下降。需求端当前淡储采购进行中，复 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-12-16 外需修复，股指震荡 市场分析 外需修复。宏观方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，服务业生产 指数同比增长4.2%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%；1-11月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，其中，制 造业投资增长1.9%，房地产开发投资下降15.9%；11月全国城镇调查失业率持平于5.1%。海外方面，美联储威廉姆 斯表示，货币政策已为2026年做好充分准备。预计美国失业率将在2025年底降至4.5%。劳动力市场风险已上升， 而通胀风险已缓解。美联储的政策已从温紧缩转向中性。预计通胀率将在2026年升至2.5%，2027年降至2%。预计 会积极使用常备回购便利工具来管理流动性。 股指调整。现货市场，A股三大指数调整，沪指跌0.55%收于3867.92点，创业板指跌1.77%。行业方面，板块指数 涨跌互现，非银金融、商贸零售、农林牧渔行业领涨，电子、通信、传媒、机械设备行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两 市成交额继续回落至1.7万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收跌，纳指跌0.59%报23057.41点。 IH活跃度提升。期货市场， ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][5] 2. Report's Core View - The current supply - demand pattern of soybean meal remains unchanged. With high oil mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal, and no sudden news to stimulate the market after policy stabilization, the overall soybean meal price is mainly in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [2] - In the domestic corn market, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is relatively fast, but the effective supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell. As the price reaches a relatively high level and holidays approach, the sales progress may accelerate. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed enterprises' demand is rigid while traders are eager to store high - quality grain [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2758 yuan/ton yesterday, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.43%) from the previous day. The rapeseed meal 2605 contract closed at 2341 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.26%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M05 + 332, down 8. In Jiangsu, it was 3050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was M05 + 292, up 2. In Guangdong, it was 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was M05 + 302, up 12. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2560 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was RM05 + 219, up 6 [1] - Market Information: As of December 11, the planting rate of the 2025/26 - season soybeans in Argentina was 58%, up from 49% last week and lower than 66% in the same period last year [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The current supply - demand situation has not changed. High oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation, along with stable policies and no sudden news, lead to a volatile soybean meal price. High US soybean import costs require attention to US soybean imports and South American weather [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - The strategy for soybean meal is neutral [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The corn 2601 contract closed at 2228 yuan/ton yesterday, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.62%) from the previous day. The corn starch 2511 contract closed at 2513 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.51%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot basis was C01 + 97, up 24. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was CS01 + 137, up 13 [3] - Market Information: As of December 10, the sowing progress of the 2025/26 - season corn in Argentina was 59.2%, up from 44% a week ago, and the expected output may reach a record 61 million tons. The wheat harvest progress in Argentina was 60.2%, up 15 percentage points week - on - week [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - In the domestic market, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell makes the effective supply tight. As prices rise and holidays approach, sales may speed up. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed demand is rigid while traders want to store high - quality grain [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - The strategy for corn is neutral [5]

期货价格上扬，市场观望为主 钢材：宏观预期落地，钢价震荡运行 黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-16 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3074元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3233元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般， 价格跟随盘面小幅上涨，低价投机和期现拿货，终端需求一般。全国建材成交101217。 供需与逻辑：建材方面：建材目前供需基本面持续改善，产量下降，库存压力不大，关注需求端变化。板材方面： 板材高库存持续压制板材价格，需求韧性仍在，关注需求及出口端变化。后期淡季行情，关注钢材减产、利润变 化、钢材出口及国内政策 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：供需矛盾加剧，矿价宽幅震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，最终铁矿石2605合约收盘753元，下跌0.92%；现货方面，报价整体 小幅下跌、成交较少，钢厂按需补库，采购价格多随行就市。 供需与逻辑：本周铁矿发运环比大幅增长，全球铁矿发运3592.5万吨，环比增6.6%。其中澳洲增4.3%，巴西增32.7%， 均处同期高位。当前铁矿石供需矛 ...