新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-23 散单成交下滑 铅价难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-22，LME铅现货升水为-45.23美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16825 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至60.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/ 吨至16925元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16850元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化25元/吨至16825元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至9825元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10025元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10225元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-22，沪铅主力合约开于16970元/吨，收于16920元/吨，较前一交易日变化40元/吨，全天交易日 成交49244手，较前一交易日变化-7217手，全天交易日持仓59586手，手较前一交易日变化-2591手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17030元/吨，最低点达到16890元/吨。夜盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory pressure at ports has eased, but the floating storage pressure caused by delayed unloading remains significant. The restart of an Iranian plant has led to fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the duration of winter maintenance of Iranian plants. Although the Iranian operating rate is low, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance needs further confirmation. The MTO maintenance at Ningbo Fude has dragged down port demand [2] - The coal - based methanol production in the inland region is operating well, and there is seasonal winter maintenance of gas - based methanol in the southwest. The new MTO plant, Lianhong Phase II, is operating stably. Among traditional downstream industries, the acetic acid operating rate has slightly rebounded but remains low, the MTBE operating rate remains high, and the formaldehyde operating rate has slightly declined [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][13] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and various import spreads (such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [6][23][24] III. Methanol Operating Rate and Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) is provided [6][30][36] IV. Regional Spreads - Regional spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc., are presented in figures [6][34][42] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][44][53]

化工日报 | 2025-12-23 青岛港口库存继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15205元/吨，较前一日变动+15元/吨；NR主力合约12355元/吨，较前一日变动-5 元/吨；BR主力合约11230元/吨，较前一日变动+210元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14470元/吨，较前一 日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1835美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1755 美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10900元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量64.36万吨，环比增 加25.98%，同比增加14.69%，2025年1-11月累计进口数量587.16万吨，累计同比增加16.98%。 2025年11月份，重卡销量11.3万辆，同比大增65%，收获同比"8连增"的同时，还创造了今年重 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - Loose expectations continue to play out, and precious metals continue to strengthen [1] - The US inflation in November and the unexpectedly high unemployment rate provide strong macro support for precious metals, and the gold price is expected to be in a volatile and upward pattern [8] - The silver price is strong due to spot shortages and has hit a record high, but there is a need to be wary of the risk of taking profits from high-level fluctuations [8] 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Fed Governor Milan said that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, it may face the risk of triggering an economic recession [1] - US President Trump will appoint a new Fed Chair in the first week of January next year, and he hopes to choose a successor who supports growth-friendly monetary policies [1] - The EU decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months until July 31, 2026, covering multiple fields [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On December 22, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 979.90 yuan/gram and closed at 1000.86 yuan/gram, a change of 2.14% from the previous trading day's close [2] - The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 15,374.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 16,210.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 5.42% from the previous trading day's close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 22, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.161%, up 2.35 BP from the previous trading day [3] - The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.68%, a change of 0.02% from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2602 contract, the long position changed by 5,098 lots and the short position changed by 4,860 lots compared with the previous day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long position changed by 563 lots and the short position changed by 36 lots [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,052.54 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - The silver ETF position was 16,066 tons, an increase of 48 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 22, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -8.18 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -1,635.83 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 61.74, a change of 0.88% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 65.78, a change of 0.91% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - The trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 59,388 kilograms, a change of 13.16% from the previous trading day [7] - The trading volume of silver was 1,056,792 kilograms, a change of 0.54% from the previous trading day [7] - The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 84,600 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will be in a volatile and upward pattern in the near term, and the oscillation range of the Au2602 contract may be between 980 yuan/gram and 1,020 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2602 contract may be between 15,700 yuan/kilogram and 16,700 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio on dips [9] - Options: Hold off [9]

燃料油日报 | 2025-12-23 原油端低位反弹，关注委内瑞拉局势 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.91%，报2458元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨2.51%，报2982 元/吨。 经历了连续下跌后，原油价格近日从低位反弹，委内瑞拉局势升级对情绪溢价有一定抬升，但油市供过于求的预 期并未逆转，未来原油端对FU、LU单边价格压制将持续存在。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前市场多空因素交织，整体矛盾有限。其中，高硫燃料油基本面一般，但裂解价差 大幅回调后已经有企稳回升迹象。就委内瑞拉局势而言，除了对原油端的情绪扰动外，燃料油市场可能会受到间 接影响，需要持续关注。如果美国扣压油轮的行为导致委内瑞拉原料供应出现持续性断供，未来国内地方炼厂原 料库存消耗后，可能需要增加燃料油进口来作为稀释沥青的替代原料。 低硫燃料油方面，由于装置检修状态的变动（阿祖尔和Dangote），科威特与尼日利亚地区供应存在回升预期，但 船燃终端需求年底受到提振，叠加汽柴油对组分的分流，低硫燃料油短期市场压力或有限。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-23 供强需弱格局延续，拖累价格下行 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6240元/吨（-80），PP主力合约收盘价为6119元/吨（-94），LL华北现货为6250 元/吨（-100），LL华东现货为6400元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6150元/吨（-60），LL华北基差为10元/吨（-20），LL 华东基差为160元/吨（+80）， PP华东基差为31元/吨（+34）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为61.6元/吨（-57.7），PP油制生产利润为-368.4元/吨（-57.7），PDH制PP生产利润 为-629.8元/吨（+48.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-131.8元/吨（-8.2），PP进口利润为-215.8元/吨（+1.8），PP出口利润为-13.4美元/吨（-0.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean market shows a differentiated pattern of "scarce high - quality beans and pressured ordinary grains." The scarcity of high - quality soybeans supports firm prices, while the demand side is cautious. The key variable affecting the price is the policy auction [3] - The domestic peanut supply is abundant, with slow inventory digestion in some intermediate links. The demand side's purchase price is stable, and attention should be paid to the actual release of festival stocking demand [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Topics Soybean Analysis Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soy - bean 2605 contract was 4105.00 yuan/ton, up 53.00 yuan/ton (+1.31%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 95, down 53 (-32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast farmers have strong reluctance to sell, and the actual available grain sources are tight. After the subsequent large - scale release of old soybeans by Sinograin for auction, the spot price may face downward pressure [1][2] Market Information - Spot prices in various regions in Heilongjiang: Most remained flat, with prices in Heihe Nenjiang and Suihua Hailun rising [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Analysis Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7962.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8055.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan/ton (-0.11%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 1162.00, up 12.00 (-1.02%) month - on - month [3] Market Information - The national average price of general - quality peanuts was 4.03 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. Oil mills' contract purchase prices for oil - used peanuts were basically stable [4] Strategy - The strategy is neutral, with the risk of weakening demand [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market has average trading volume, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass and soda ash markets are showing a weak and fluctuating trend, while silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have different trends with their own supply - demand characteristics [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend yesterday, and the market transaction center of the spot market moved down. Soda ash futures also showed a weak and fluctuating trend, and downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass production is oscillating at a high level, supply contraction is insufficient, rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. Soda ash production, although declining, is still at a relatively high level, and new production lines may increase supply. There are also challenges to the demand for heavy soda ash [1] Strategy - Glass: Weak and fluctuating; Soda ash: Weak and fluctuating; No strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Silicon manganese futures generally trended upward yesterday, and the spot market was strong with a slight price increase. Silicon iron futures had mixed long - and short - term sentiments, showing a narrow - range fluctuating trend, and the spot price was slightly adjusted upward [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon manganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. The inventory of manganese ore at ports continues to rise, and the total inventory of manganese elements increases slightly, weakening cost support. Silicon iron production has dropped significantly this week, and enterprise inventory pressure has been relieved [3] Strategy - Silicon manganese: Fluctuating; Silicon iron: Fluctuating [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The steel market has average transactions, with steel prices fluctuating. The iron ore market has a decline in global shipments, and ore prices are rising while fluctuating. The coking coal and coke market has seen the third round of price cuts implemented, with prices fluctuating. The thermal coal market has a narrowing decline in production area coal prices due to supply contraction at the end of the month [1][3][5][8] Market Analysis Steel - Futures and spot: Steel futures maintained a fluctuating trend. Spot inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coils in national cities decreased significantly, and overall spot transactions were average, mainly at low prices [1] - Supply and demand: The supply-demand fundamentals of building materials continue to improve, with off-season consumption showing resilience, a slight increase in production, and a continuous decline in inventory. However, there is an expected seasonal decline in demand. Plate production decreased slightly, consumption and exports also declined slightly but still showed resilience. High inventory continued to suppress plate prices, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar continued to weaken [1] Iron Ore - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices rose while fluctuating. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. The total spot trading volume at major national ports was 1.009 million tons, a 15.91% increase from the previous day, and the forward spot trading volume was 1.12 million tons, a 38.96% increase. The global iron ore shipments decreased slightly to 34.65 million tons, a 3.6% decrease, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased slightly to 26.47 million tons, a 2.8% decrease. Port inventories continued to accumulate, with the total inventory at 45 ports reaching 156.82 million tons, a 1.1% increase [3] - Supply and demand: The supply-demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate. Non-mainstream shipments remain at a high level under high valuations, and the total inventory has continued to rise. However, due to the lack of liquidity of some port supplies, ore prices remain high. Some steel mills have reduced production to relieve restocking pressure and have insufficient short-term restocking willingness. If the liquidity of some port supplies recovers, ore prices will face downward pressure [3] Coking Coal and Coke - Futures and spot: The futures of coking coal and coke fluctuated. Mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong implemented the third round of coke price cuts, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Coking enterprises began to restock appropriately, and coking coal transactions improved. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is 970 - 980 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal is about 1,050 yuan/ton [5][6] - Supply and demand: For coke, after the third round of price cuts, supply has contracted, and demand has weakened due to the decline in molten iron. Short-term supply and demand maintain a weak balance, and coke prices remain under pressure. For coking coal, imported coal has impacted the domestic market, downstream demand is insufficient, and coking coal inventories have continued to accumulate. Coupled with the decline in thermal coal prices, the fundamentals of coking coal are weak. However, due to the approaching delivery month, the price of the near-month contract returns to the warehouse receipt value, so the futures price maintains a wide - range fluctuation [6] Thermal Coal - Futures and spot: In the production areas, coal prices rose and fell. The shipment of medium and low - calorie coal from some coal mines improved, but high - calorie coal mines still saw price declines. At the ports, the thermal coal market remained weak, but some rigid demand and short - selling inquiries increased near the end of the month. The supply at the production areas tightened at the end of the year, and the pessimistic market sentiment eased slightly. The load of downstream power plants and terminal enterprises did not increase significantly, the actual procurement intensity remained weak, and short - term prices remained weak. The price of imported low - calorie coal stabilized, and there were also inquiries for high - calorie coal, but there was still a situation of bargaining and waiting and seeing [8] - Supply and demand: Supply has contracted near the end of the month, but coal demand is poor, inventories continue to grow, and coal prices fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged [8] Strategies Steel - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - variety: None; Cross - period: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal: Fluctuating; Coke: Fluctuating; Cross - variety: None; Cross - period: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The report provides a detailed overview of the market liquidity situation on December 22, 2025, including the trading volume, position value, and trading - position ratio of various sectors such as the stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy and chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - The report presents data on the trading - position ratio, trading volume change rate, position volume, position value, trading volume, and trading value of each sector through multiple charts [4][5][8]. 2. Stock Index Plate - On December 22, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 5203.53 billion yuan, a change of - 32.20% from the previous trading day; the position value was 13056.29 billion yuan, a change of + 0.22% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 39.81% [1]. - Multiple charts show the price change rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading value change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate [5][9]. 3. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 3789.31 billion yuan, a change of + 18.77% from the previous trading day; the position value was 7682.75 billion yuan, a change of - 0.28% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 49.34% [1]. - Multiple charts show the price change rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading value change, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the treasury bond plate [5]. 4. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - The trading volume of the basic metal plate was 7823.95 billion yuan, a change of + 13.66% from the previous trading day; the position value was 7179.92 billion yuan, a change of + 2.81% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 106.48%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 11168.20 billion yuan, a change of - 7.87% from the previous trading day; the position value was 5483.82 billion yuan, a change of + 6.32% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 302.97% [1]. - Multiple charts show the price change rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading value change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate [5]. 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 5137.33 billion yuan, a change of + 19.97% from the previous trading day; the position value was 4464.24 billion yuan, a change of + 1.19% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 111.24% [1]. - Multiple charts show the price change rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading value change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate [5]. 6. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 2803.34 billion yuan, a change of - 3.17% from the previous trading day; the position value was 5720.66 billion yuan, a change of - 1.40% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 46.56% [1]. - Multiple charts show the price change rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading value change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural product plate [5]. 7. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 2268.71 billion yuan, a change of + 10.32% from the previous trading day; the position value was 3192.35 billion yuan, a change of + 0.10% from the previous trading day; the trading - position ratio was 64.99% [2]. - Multiple charts show the price change rate, trading - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading value change rate, and the top 20 net position ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate [5].