策略 单边：短期震荡偏强，前期多头可适当止盈 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 市场分析 石油沥青日报 | 2026-01-28 1、1月27日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3279元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨10元/吨，涨幅 0.31%；持仓163341手，环比下降10433手，成交189561手，环比下跌32302手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3406—3550元/吨；山东，3080—3240元/吨；华南，3200—3300元/吨； 华东，3180—3230元/吨。 虽然原油价格回落，但沥青成本端支撑仍存，昨日华东、华南沥青现货价格均出现上涨，山东价格相对持稳。当 前沥青市场主要驱动来自于成本端，盘面在定价委油供应收紧预期后一度进入震荡阶段。近日地缘局势升温，稀 释沥青贴水远月报价显著上涨，国内产业端远期备货积极性提升，带动盘面再度走强。目前来看，在美国意图加 强控制委内瑞拉资源的背景下，委内瑞拉原油对国内炼厂供应收紧的预期已在逐步兑现，沥青成本端支撑较为坚 挺，但终端需求的疲软与替代原料的存在，叠加近期基差的下跌，则将制约盘面的上方空间。 现货价格稳中有升，盘面 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-28 供需双弱格局下，去库进度艰难 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13800-14000（0）元/吨。近日国家取消光伏增值税出口退税政策，短期多 晶硅需求有上涨预期，多晶硅强出口有望提振工业硅需求端，短期的需求利好提振价格上行。铝硅合金企业开工 率小幅下降，有机硅维持错峰减排政策。铝合金下游需求呈现边际走弱，预计后续开工率以稳中偏弱为主。 供给端：1月产量环比减少接近20%，行业开工率降到历史低点，供给端有收缩趋势。 策略 工业硅价格预计将维持区间震荡，供需双减的情况下叠加煤炭价格与光伏产业链价格上涨传导效果，价格支撑明 显。上行高度取决于下游需求恢复和库存去化进度，下行空间则受成本支撑和减产预期限制。 单边：短期区间操作 工业硅： 跨期：无 期权：无 市场分析 2026-01-27，工业硅期货价格震荡下跌，主力合约2605开于8895元/吨，最后收于8860元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-70） 元/吨，变化（-0.78）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓242625手，2026-01-26仓单总数为13115手，较前一日变化 144手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格 ...

果蔬品日报 | 2026-01-28 风险 春节节日备货进度、产区天气影响、替代水果交易情况 苹果依赖节前走货，红枣旺季支撑消费 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9504元/吨，较前一日变动+38元/吨，幅度+0.40%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.00元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1504，较前一日变动-38；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1104，较前一日变动-38。 近期市场资讯，产区整体包装发运略有加快，主产区果农货成交量仍显有限，目前行情整体维持稳中偏弱，部分 果农急售情绪加重。目前陕西果农货成交以少量两极货源为主，仍以客商发自存货源为主；甘肃产区客商按需调 果农货源，包装发货较为稳定，走货尚可。山东产区成交一般，礼盒开始零星包装，少量75#货源、三级货源出库 为主，交易不多。栖霞80#一二级片红果农货3.2-4.5元/斤，80#统货2.5-3元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库价 格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静 ...

油料日报 | 2026-01-28 豆一交投平淡稳运行，花生备货收尾显弱稳 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4364.00元/吨，较前日变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.46%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05+76，较前日变化+20，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：昨日东北大豆现货价格整体持稳。市场整体表现较为稳定，不过从贸易环节反馈来看，当前出货 节奏有所放缓，终端需求的释放力度仍需提升。现货方面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车 报价2.22元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市 场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.33元/斤；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场 国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.30元/斤。 昨日豆一期货主力合约价格探底回升。近期双向拍卖的成交情况整体符合市场普遍预期，一定程度上缓和了此前 较为明显的看涨情绪。从现货市场来看，国内大豆产 ...

PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4911元/吨（-48）；华东基差-211元/吨（+48）;华南基差-191元/吨（+18）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4700元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4720元/吨（-30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2855元/吨（+0）；电石利润-23元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-800元/吨（-137）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-49元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润-5.1美元/吨（+11.5）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.8万吨（-0.3）；PVC社会库存57.6万吨（+1.5）；PVC电石法开工率80.14%（-0.52%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.04%（-2.44%）；PVC开工率77.98%（-1.10%）。 氯碱日报 | 2026-01-28 山东烧碱主力下游再次下调采购价 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC： PVC4月1日起出口退税取消，4月之前存抢出口情况，出口订单延续高位。当前PVC市场整体供需格局延续弱势。 供应端，国内PVC供应充裕，福建万华检修及山东恒通临时故障，暂无新增检修企业；下游开工因春节前降价促 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - The soybean meal inventory is continuously being consumed but remains significantly higher than historical levels, and the soybean inventory also stays at a high level. Affected by the boost of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal prices are expected to run relatively strongly in the short - term. However, due to the upcoming harvest of new - season soybeans in Brazil, the supply pressure will gradually increase, and soybean meal prices are likely to weaken in the future [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises are starting to stock up. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have a demand for replenishing stocks, and the purchase demand of deep - processing enterprises is increasing. Although the arrival volume is low due to snowfall, the purchase price of corn has been raised, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly. The inventory in the northern ports has slightly increased, while the domestic trade inventory in the southern ports is still being consumed. The price is relatively high, and feed enterprises are mainly fulfilling contracts. The current inventory is still lower than historical levels. Future attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [5] Group 3: Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2,766 yuan/ton, a change of - 3 yuan/ton (- 0.11%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2,271 yuan/ton, a change of + 2 yuan/ton (+ 0.09%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot price of soybean meal in Tianjin was 3,170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 404, a change of + 3 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3,070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 304, a change of + 3 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 3,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 304, a change of - 7 from the previous day. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2,480 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of RM05 + 209, a change of - 2 from the previous day [1] - Market news: From January 26th, Brazilian export data showed that Brazil exported 1.522 million tons of soybeans in the first four weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 95,000 tons, a 96% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 49,000 tons in the whole of January last year. The agricultural consulting firm AgRural reported that the soybean production in Brazil's 2025/26 season is expected to reach 181 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 180.4 million tons. As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.324 million tons, with a previous market forecast of 900,000 - 1.55 million tons, and the revised figure for the previous week was 1.345 million tons [2] Group 4: Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2,283 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.44%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 18 yuan/ton (- 0.70%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of corn in Liaoning was 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C03 + 67, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS03 + 90, a change of + 18 from the previous day [4] - Market news: The consulting firm AgRural predicted that the total corn production in Brazil's 2025/26 season would be 136.6 million tons, 600,000 tons higher than the December forecast but still lower than the record - high production of 141.1 million tons in the 2024/25 season. As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.51 million tons, with a previous market forecast of 1 - 1.7 million tons, and the revised figure for the previous week was 1.486 million tons [4] Group 5: Figures - The report includes 44 figures related to the prices, production, consumption, inventory, and basis of soybean meal, corn, rapeseed meal, and corn starch, with data sourced from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, the price is under pressure due to a strong US dollar, high refined nickel inventory, and limited demand from new - energy vehicles, despite cost support from rising nickel ore and nickel - iron prices. The market is in a state of wide - range oscillation, with the short - term price being easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment [1]. - For the stainless - steel market, the core contradiction lies in the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia materializes and nickel - iron prices continue to rise, the cost support will strengthen, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If demand remains weak and inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 147,980 yuan/ton and closed at 146,110 yuan/ton, down 1.87% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 523,396 (- 207,084) lots, and the open interest was 40,119 (- 19,164) lots. The strong US durable goods order data strengthened the US dollar index, which suppressed the prices of commodities denominated in US dollars. The London nickel closed down 0.64%, dragging down the opening performance of Shanghai nickel. Additionally, with the approaching Spring Festival, market funds' risk - aversion sentiment increased, and speculative funds gradually left the market, further intensifying the price correction pressure. High refined nickel inventory also put pressure on the nickel price [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market remained stable overall. After several days of continuous price increases, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, and the market trading atmosphere became calm. Mine owners maintained firm quotes based on previous high - price transactions. Some mines' FOB tender price for 1.3% nickel ore was 39.5 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the nickel ore premium for February was being negotiated, and the benchmark price for the first half of February was expected to rise by 2 - 3 US dollars. The ESDM began to approve the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB), and the supply of Indonesian nickel ore remained tight [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 151,300 yuan/ton, down 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and the overall transaction was average. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 250 yuan/ton to 6,750 yuan/ton, and the premium of imported nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton, with the nickel bean premium at 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 42,499 (- 18) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,726 ( + 174) tons [2]. Strategy - The market divergence focuses on the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". Short - term prices are easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for spread trading, cross - variety trading, cash - futures arbitrage, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 27, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 14,725 yuan/ton and closed at 14,540 yuan/ton, down 1.26%. The market trading and open interest both contracted, showing obvious weak characteristics. The strong US dollar suppressed commodities, and the weakening of London nickel dragged down the cost support of stainless steel. The synchronous decline of Shanghai nickel further transmitted negative sentiment, suppressing the stainless - steel futures market. Fundamentally, the demand side was unable to support price increases, and although some steel mills had maintenance plans, the short - term supply was still sufficient, and the inventory decline slowed down, highlighting the supply - demand contradiction [3][4]. - **Spot**: The spot price was slightly adjusted downward but remained at a high level overall. Some downstream stocking demand was released, and the market transaction improved compared with the previous period. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 14,500 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market, it was 14,450 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 110 - 210 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,053.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. The short - term strategy is range - bound operation, buying low and selling high, with strict stop - loss settings. In the medium term, attention should be paid to policy and demand changes, and unilateral positions should be arranged after the trend is clear. The unilateral rating is neutral, and there are no suggestions for spread trading, cross - variety trading, cash - futures arbitrage, or options trading [5].

液化石油气日报 | 2026-01-28 地缘溢价回调，市场阻力因素仍存 2、 2026年2月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷627美元/吨，跌12美元/吨，丁烷617美元/吨，跌12美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4822元/吨，跌91元/吨，丁烷4745元/吨，跌91元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年2月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷619美元/吨，跌12美元/吨，丁烷609美元/吨，跌12美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4761元/吨，跌91元/吨，丁烷4684元/吨，跌91元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近日中东局势升温，原油地缘溢价攀升，并带动下游能化商品上涨。但截至周二尚未发生大规模断供事件，昨日 内外盘LPG回调，国内现货价格涨跌互现。 由于LPG是伊朗出口的主要油品之一，且大部分出口到我国，因此市场对于伊朗局势的风险敞口较大。此外，美 国寒潮也对LPG存在利多。但如果排除地缘和季节因素，LPG市场内生性上行驱动相对有限。一方面，高企的原料 进口成本压制了下游PDH等装置的利润，从而造成需求负反馈，PDH装置检修已经出现增加，带动开工率与原料 需求下滑；另一方面，醚后碳四与民用气价 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-28 基本面数据表现坚挺 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-26.43美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化80元/吨至24760元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水35元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日70元/吨至24820元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水30元/吨；天 津锌现货价较前一交易日70元/吨至24690元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-35元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-27沪锌主力合约开于25280元/吨，收于24950元/吨，较前一交易日190元/吨，全天交易日成交 255674手，全天交易日持仓118946手，日内价格最高点达到25280元/吨，最低点达到24710元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-01-27，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.68万吨，较上期变化-0.20万吨。截止2026-01-27，LME 锌库存为110550吨，较上一交易日变化-775吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续，供给端增 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - Trump's remarks caused the US dollar index to fall more than 1% to 95.7905, hitting a nearly four - year low. He also decided to raise tariffs on South Korean products from 15% to 25% [1] - The US consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, the lowest since 2014, due to geopolitical tensions, high living costs, and trade wars [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,145.94 yuan/gram and closed at 1,148.38 yuan/gram, a 0.44% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The overnight session closed at 1,142.00 yuan/gram, a 0.56% drop from the afternoon close [2] - The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 27,300.00 yuan/kg and closed at 28,300.00 yuan/kg, a 4.02% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,038,738 lots, and the open interest was 310,210 lots. The overnight session closed at 27,702 yuan/kg, a 2.11% drop from the afternoon close [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 27, 2026, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.24%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.65%, a - 0.6BP change from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Position and Volume Changes on SHFE - On the Au2604 contract, the long position changed by 5,015 lots, and the short position changed by 381 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 573,180 lots, a - 1.08% change from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long position changed by - 10,773 lots, and the short position changed by - 6,800 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2,534,159 lots, a 6.64% change from the previous trading day [4] Group 5: Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,086.53 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,974 tons, a decrease of 116 tons from the previous trading day [5] Group 6: Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 27, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 16.39 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 863.14 yuan/kg [6] - The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 40.58, a - 3.44% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 46.47, a - 3.71% change from the previous trading day [6] Group 7: Fundamental Data - On January 27, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 109,368 kg, a 32.01% change from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 627,160 kg, a - 10.69% change from the previous trading day [7] - The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [7] Group 8: Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Due to increased market risk sentiment and a weaker US dollar index, gold investment demand may increase slightly. The Au2604 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,120 yuan/gram and 1,170 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. After an overnight adjustment, silver prices may be relatively stronger than gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. The Ag2604 contract is expected to fluctuate between 27,500 yuan/kg and 30,000 yuan/kg [8][9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]