华泰期货研究 2026 年期货市场年度展望 俄乌和谈让市场产生了新的变量，但依然离不开制裁油与合规油之间的博弈，但我们预计今年年内达成的难度较大，但如果真的达成，导 致俄油制裁放松重新转化为合规油，那么对油市的影响毫无疑问是显著利空的。 二元结构下的油市新格局 Energy 能源板块研究 Research 本期分析研究员 潘翔 从业资格号：F3023104 投资咨询号：Z0013188 康远宁 从业资格号：F3049404 投资咨询号：Z0015842 2025 年 11 月 30 日 华泰期货研究院能源板块研究 期货研究报告 | 原油年报 2025-11-30 二元结构下的油市新格局 策略摘要 由于西方制裁，原油市场划分为制裁油与合规油两个市场，制裁油包括原产 地俄罗斯、伊朗与委内瑞拉的原油，西方制裁涉及的主体包含但不限于出口商、 船东、油轮、贸易商、码头、炼厂等，这导致了制裁油的贸易在有限的主体中进 行，形成了一个相对封闭的链条。而当前基准原油的价格（WTI、Brent、Dubai） 代表着合规油的价格。在当前制裁逐步收紧的情况下，市场出现了新的态势。买 家在合规与经济性上在合规油与制裁油的采购上进行权衡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the PX market is expected to see both supply and demand increase, with the Chinese PX balance sheet likely to remain in a de - stocking state, though the de - stocking amplitude will narrow compared to 2025. Attention should be paid to the load - increasing situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical [4][5][13]. - In 2026, without new PTA capacity additions, PTA supply growth is expected to be less than demand growth, leading to continued de - stocking and potential low - level recovery of processing fees. However, the supply elasticity of PTA remains, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of devices under the recovery of processing fees [8][9][13]. - In 2026, the supply pressure of new MEG capacity will increase. Assuming a 4.9% growth rate in polyester demand, MEG is expected to accumulate inventory, with the price center expected to be lower than in 2025, mostly operating in the range of 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton [11][12][14]. - In 2026, the new PF capacity will increase again. After the high - growth in 2025, the direct export of staple fiber in some regions is saturated, and the demand - side growth space is limited. The competition in the staple fiber industry is expected to intensify again, and the processing margin may be compressed [14]. - In 2026, although the production capacity growth of PR will further slow down, due to the previous high - speed supply growth, the processing fee of bottle chips is still under pressure. It is expected to have a slight improvement compared to 2025 but will still fluctuate in the range of 300 - 600 yuan/ton [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **PX Balance Sheet Data** - Demand: Calculated simply based on the estimated PTA production [4]. - Production: In 2026, China's new PX capacity is planned to be 2.6 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6%. The actual new production capacity mainly comes from Liaoning Huajin Aramco's 2 million tons and Fujia Dahua's 0.6 million tons of transformation and expansion. The new capacity is expected to contribute about 1.2 million tons of production in 2026. The average operating rate of China's PX in 2025 is expected to be 87.1%, and in 2026, the PX production is expected to increase by about 2 million tons compared to 2025, with a growth rate of 5.3%, and the average operating rate is estimated at 89% [4]. - Import: In 2026, the import demand is expected to continue to grow, with an estimated import of about 9.99 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%, and the import dependence will remain around 20% [5]. - Summary: In 2026, PX supply and demand are expected to increase, and the Chinese PX balance sheet is expected to remain in a de - stocking state, but the de - stocking amplitude will narrow [5]. - **PTA Balance Sheet Data** - Demand: In 2026, the new polyester capacity is planned to be about 4 million tons. The average operating rate of polyester in 2025 is expected to be around 90%, and in 2026, it is expected to rise slightly to 91%. The estimated polyester production in 2025 is 84.64 million tons, with a production growth rate of 4.9%. The non - polyester demand for PTA is expected to be about 2.88 million tons throughout the year [7]. - Production: In 2026, there are no PTA production capacity addition plans in China. However, the production of new devices put into operation in 2025 will gradually increase. It is expected that the total PTA production in 2026 will increase by about 2.9 million tons compared to 2025, with a production growth rate of 3.9%, and the average operating rate is expected to decline from 83% in 2025 to 81% [8]. - Net Export: In 2026, the PTA export volume is expected to decrease slightly compared to 2025 due to the increase in overseas supply [9]. - Summary: In 2026, without new production capacity additions, PTA supply growth is expected to be less than demand growth, and PTA will remain in a de - stocking state, with processing fees expected to recover from a low level [9]. - **MEG Balance Sheet Data** - Demand: Similar to PTA, in 2026, new polyester capacity is planned to be about 4 million tons, and the average operating rate of polyester is expected to rise slightly to 91%. The estimated polyester production in 2025 is 84.64 million tons, with a production growth rate of 4.9%. The non - polyester demand for EG is estimated to be about 1.65 million tons throughout the year [10]. - Domestic Capacity and Production: In 2026, China plans to put into operation 2.8 million tons of MEG capacity, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 9.2%. The new capacity is expected to contribute about 0.95 million tons of production. The production of existing devices is expected to increase by about 1.25 million tons, and the overall domestic MEG production is expected to increase by about 1.8 million tons, with a production growth rate of 8.7% [11]. - Net Import: In 2026, the net import level is about 7.35 million tons, a slight decrease compared to 2025 [12]. - Summary: In 2026, the supply pressure of new MEG capacity will increase, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. The annual price center is expected to be lower than in 2025, mostly operating in the range of 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PX**: In 2026, PX supply and demand are expected to increase, and the Chinese PX balance sheet is expected to remain in a de - stocking state, but the de - stocking amplitude will narrow. Attention should be paid to the load - increasing situation of Zhejiang Petrochemical and the commissioning progress of Yulong Petrochemical. PXN is expected to be strong during the aromatics blending stockpiling and PX centralized maintenance periods and weak at other times [13]. - **PTA**: In 2026, without new production capacity additions, PTA is expected to remain in a de - stocking state, and processing fees are expected to recover from a low level. However, attention should be paid to the resumption of production of devices under the recovery of processing fees [13]. - **MEG**: In 2026, the supply pressure of new MEG capacity will increase, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. The annual price center is expected to be lower than in 2025, mostly operating in the range of 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton [14]. - **PF**: In 2026, the new PF capacity will increase again. After the high - growth in 2025, the direct export of staple fiber in some regions is saturated, and the demand - side growth space is limited. The competition in the staple fiber industry is expected to intensify again, and the processing margin may be compressed [14]. - **PR**: In 2026, although the production capacity growth of PR will further slow down, due to the previous high - speed supply growth, the processing fee of bottle chips is still under pressure. It is expected to have a slight improvement compared to 2025 but will still fluctuate in the range of 300 - 600 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Strategies - **PX and PTA**: For the 05 contract, consider long - hedging on dips. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread opportunity in the inter - period spread and the opportunity to go long on PTA processing fees in the inter - variety spread. In 2026, there are no new PTA device additions, and downstream polyester still has new capacity additions, so the PTA supply - demand situation will improve. PX new devices will mainly be put into operation in the second half of the year, and PX is expected to be tight in the first half of the year, so the 5 - 9 positive spread opportunity can be considered [15]. - **MEG**: The annual - level unilateral price is expected to mostly operate in the range of 3,700 - 4,600 yuan/ton. The 01 contract is expected to be under pressure due to the new device commissioning, the 05 contract may have a rebound opportunity, and the 09 contract may be under pressure again due to the concentrated commissioning of devices [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - **Nickel**: In 2025, LME and SHFE nickel prices showed a downward trend throughout the year. The core issue was the exacerbation of supply - demand imbalance. Currently, nickel prices are at a 5 - year low, and the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In 2025, stainless steel prices generally followed the trend of nickel prices, showing a downward trend. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was difficult to reverse. Currently, stainless steel prices are at a 5 - year low, and the downward space is expected to be limited [13]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Trends - Nickel and stainless steel prices first rose and then fell in 2025, and have now dropped to a 5 - year low. In 2026, both are expected to show a situation of weak supply and demand [1][5]. 2. Nickel Ore - **Indonesia**: In 2025, there were many disturbances in Indonesia. The nickel ore price first rose and then fell. The RKAB total approval volume increased, but the actual production was far lower than the approved quota. It is expected that the RKAB approval volume will decline in 2026 [31][34]. - **Philippines**: In 2025, the nickel ore price showed a "high - level shock - seasonal decline - rainy - season support - weak stability" pattern. The export volume to Indonesia increased significantly, and it is expected to continue to grow throughout the year [36][37]. - **Sulfide Nickel Ore**: After the clearance of high - cost production capacity in 2024, the supply of overseas sulfide nickel ore has gradually stabilized [40]. 3. Refined Nickel - **Production**: From January to November 2025, domestic refined nickel production increased by 21.8% year - on - year. The import volume from Russia and Norway increased significantly [44]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, 2025, the global nickel inventory reached a 5 - year high. The main reason was the intensification of the supply - demand contradiction [48]. 4. Nickel Intermediates and Nickel Sulfate - **Nickel Intermediates**: In 2025, the production and price of MHP and high - nickel matte both increased. It is expected that the price of MHP will face downward pressure in the second quarter of 2026 [51][52]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: From January to October 2025, the production decreased by about 10% year - on - year. In the long term, the price is expected to continue to be weak [57][58]. 5. Ferronickel - **Production**: From January to October 2025, the total production of China and Indonesia increased by 11.6% year - on - year. Indonesia's supply proportion continued to rise [64]. - **Price**: In 2025, the ferronickel price fluctuated greatly and is currently close to the cost line. It is expected that the price will continue to decline in the short term, but the downward space is limited [69]. 6. Stainless Steel - **Capacity and Production**: In 2025, the capacity continued to be released, and the supply increased steadily. The export volume remained stable, while the import volume decreased significantly [75][76]. - **Inventory**: The stainless steel inventory remained at a high level and showed a trend of re - accumulation [88]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost remained stable, and it was still difficult for the profit to turn positive in the short term [90][91]. 7. Terminal Demand - **Traditional Sectors**: In 2025, the real estate sector was sluggish, while the home appliance industry was outstanding. Overall, the demand showed a downward trend [94][95]. - **Lithium - Battery Industry**: The production of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly, driving nickel consumption. However, the proportion of ternary batteries continued to decline [101][102]. 8. Supply - Demand Balance - **Nickel**: In 2026, the oversupply of primary nickel is expected to shrink slightly [106][107]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel industry will improve the current supply - demand pattern under policy guidance, and the oversupply in China is expected to shrink in 2026 [112][113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the center of copper prices is likely to continue rising. However, with the TC remaining at -$40 per ton, mine - end disturbances may not be able to drive significant price increases. The demand side may have positive momentum under the "15th Five - Year Plan", and macro - factors and the strong gold price may make copper price fluctuations more difficult to predict. The annual price is expected to fluctuate between 80,000 yuan/ton and 100,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The supply - demand gap of copper is expected to gradually widen from 2025 - 2026, start to narrow in 2027, and turn into a surplus in 2028, at which time processing fees are expected to recover. Short - term copper prices are supported by the supply - demand gap, while in the medium - to - long term, they will depend more on the realization of terminal demand [10]. - In 2026, the copper terminal demand will show a multi - polar driven pattern with relatively stable power demand and potential surprises from the electronics sector. But in 2026 specifically, copper demand may only show a slight increase due to a short - term decline in the photovoltaic sector and relatively weak real estate demand [15]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Summary - In 2025, copper prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the year, tight mineral supply, low processing fees, expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the strong gold price pushed copper prices up. After that, due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, copper prices dropped significantly around the Tomb - sweeping Festival. In the second half of the year, with loose macro - expectations, good demand in the AI and new energy fields, and supply disturbances such as the shutdown of Grasberg, the center of copper prices moved up again, and it entered a shock range at the end of the year [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Overview 3.2.1 Annual Mine - end Supply Disturbances and No Improvement in Mid - stream Smelting Profit Margins - In 2025, the TC price of imported copper concentrates continued to decline, reaching -$42.15 per ton by mid - November. Smelter profits mainly came from by - products such as sulfuric acid, gold, and silver. The TC price set by Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in the middle of the year was $0 per ton, slightly higher than market expectations, highlighting the tight supply situation at the mine end [10][24]. - In the third quarter of 2025, the production of major global copper miners showed a structural tightening trend, with output generally declining. For example, BHP's copper concentrate production decreased slightly, and Southern Copper, Freeport, and Zijin Mining all had different degrees of production cuts due to factors such as grade decline and accidents [10][26]. - Although the processing fees were low, the strong prices of by - products supported the growth of domestic refined copper production. The expansion of smelting capacity was slightly faster than that of the mine end. In the future, the profit of the copper industry chain will continue to concentrate upstream. The supply - demand gap of copper concentrates is expected to widen from 2025 - 2026, start to narrow in 2027, and turn into a surplus in 2028 [10][32][35]. 3.2.2 Refined Ore Supply Constraints Suppress Smelter Profits, and Scrap Copper Supply Also Has Short - term Bottlenecks - From January to October 2025, domestic refined copper production was about 1.115 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 12%. Domestic smelting maintained a high operating rate, relying on the strong prices of by - products and scrap copper to offset the decline in processing fees. In the future, the sustainability of this state depends on the realization of overseas mine production and the support of by - products and scrap copper [13][41]. - From January to September 2025, scrap copper production was 902,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.18%. However, due to policy adjustments and import constraints, the supply of scrap copper was limited and there was a risk of a slight decline in the future [42]. 3.2.3 The Tight Spot Pattern in Shanghai and London Continues, and Copper Prices Are Prone to Rise and Difficult to Fall under Tariff Expectations - From January to October 2025, domestic electrolytic copper imports decreased by 6.14% year - on - year, while exports increased by 29.44% year - on - year. The Comex premium led to the migration of inventories from London and Shanghai to the US. The Shanghai and London markets were in a tight Back structure, and if tariffs were implemented, the tight pattern of Shanghai copper would be difficult to ease, and the overall copper price center would be prone to rise [46][48]. 3.3 Primary Processing - end Situation Overview 3.3.1 Copper Rods - Grid Rush Installation and Temporarily Tight Refined Copper Lead to a Recovery in Processing Fees - In July - September 2025, the wire and cable tenders of the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid increased by 18% year - on - year. Due to smelter maintenance, the production of 8 - mm copper rods decreased, and the processing fees rebounded from 550 yuan to 700 yuan. After that, the processing fees fell back to 600 - 650 yuan but were still higher than in 2024. In 2026, copper rod consumption may maintain positive growth, and the processing fee center may oscillate between 550 - 700 yuan [50][53]. 3.3.2 Copper Tubes - Air - conditioner Production Scheduling First High and Then Low, and Exports Rush to the "Tariff Window" - In July - August 2025, the production scheduling of household air - conditioners increased by 12%. In September, due to the possible increase in HVAC tariffs in 2026, copper tube exports increased by 26% year - on - year. After October, air - conditioner production scheduling decreased, and processing fees fell slightly. In 2026, domestic air - conditioner sales will enter the replacement cycle, and exports may be under pressure. If copper prices remain above 80,000 yuan, "aluminum replacing copper" may accelerate, and copper tube consumption may have zero growth, with the processing fee range at 4,500 - 5,200 yuan [55]. 3.3.3 Copper Foil - Lithium - battery Demand Is "Not Weak in the Off - season", and Processing Fees Bottomed out and Rebounded - In July 2025, the production scheduling of lithium - ion batteries decreased, and the operating rate of lithium - ion copper foil reached a minimum of 68%. After August, with the implementation of policies such as energy storage and "trading in the old for the new", the production scheduling of power batteries increased, and processing fees rebounded. In 2026, new copper foil production capacity will be mainly high - end projects, and processing fees are expected to continue to recover [58]. 3.4 Terminal Situation Overview 3.4.1 Power - A Solid Foundation for Copper Demand and Potential Demand Growth Points in the Construction of a New Power System - The power sector is the largest part of domestic copper terminal demand. According to the "15th Five - Year Plan", the strategic position of the power sector is emphasized again. By 2030, the copper consumption in the power sector is expected to reach more than 800 million tons. The growth of renewable energy such as wind and solar power and the construction of UHV projects will be the main driving forces for copper demand growth. However, in 2026, the marginal growth rate of copper demand in the power sector may decline due to the possible short - term decline in the photovoltaic sector and the slowdown of UHV construction [60][61][63]. 3.4.2 Real Estate - Structural Opportunities in the Stock Era - The real estate sector's demand for copper is concentrated in building wiring, pipeline systems, etc. Although the real estate market is in a deep adjustment period, there will be a major opportunity for demand structure transformation during the "15th Five - Year Plan". The renovation of old communities, urban renewal, and the development of smart homes and "photovoltaic - energy storage - charging" integrated parking lots will drive copper demand. However, in 2026, the real estate sector may still drag down copper terminal demand [75][76][77]. 3.4.3 Automobiles - The Automobile Sector Still Has a Certain Pulling Effect on Demand under the Electrification Transformation - With the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, they have become the core driving force for copper demand in the transportation sector. In 2024, new energy vehicles consumed about 1.068 billion tons of copper, accounting for about 60% of transportation copper demand. By 2030, the total copper consumption in the transportation sector is expected to exceed 2.4 billion tons [83][85]. 3.4.4 Home Appliances - The "15th Five - Year Plan" May Be an Era of Both Quantity and Quality Improvement - In the "15th Five - Year Plan", the home appliance industry will face the full upgrade of energy - efficiency standards and the wave of intelligence. The copper consumption of air - conditioners and refrigerators is expected to increase. The export market will also have certain growth, and the home appliance industry will maintain a stable growth rate of 3 - 4% in copper consumption during the "15th Five - Year Plan" [92][93]. 3.4.5 Electronics Sector - The Most Important Demand Growth Point - During the "15th Five - Year Plan", the domestic electronics information industry will continue to develop in the directions of high - end, electrification, and intelligence. PCB and electronic wiring harnesses will be the main driving forces for copper demand growth. By 2030, the copper consumption in the electronics sector is expected to reach 2 billion tons, with an average annual growth rate of 7.3% [100][101][102]. 3.4.6 Summary of Changes in Copper Terminal Demand in Each Sector - In 2026, the power, automobile, home appliance, and electronics sectors will have positive marginal increments in copper demand, while the real estate sector will have a negative marginal increment. Overall, the total copper demand will increase slightly [108]. 3.5 Comex Inventory Continues to Rise, while Inventories in Shanghai and London Are Difficult to Accumulate Continuously - In 2025, Comex inventory continued to rise significantly, approaching 400,000 tons. This is mainly due to the previous high premium in the US market caused by tariff expectations. In the Shanghai and London markets, low inventories may lead to squeeze - out risks from time to time [107]. 3.6 Domestic Supply in 2026 May Continue to Be in a Slight Surplus - According to the forecast, in 2026, the global refined copper production will be 2.8166 billion tons, and the demand will be 2.8076 billion tons, with a surplus of 90,000 tons [116].

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 新能源&有色组行业贵金属年报 贵金属的黄金时代 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号 F3080232 投资咨询号 Z0016047 师橙 从业资格号 F3046665 投资咨询号 Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号 F03139777 投资咨询号 Z0021579 王育武 从业资格号 F03114162 投资咨询号 Z0022466 新能源&有色组 | 贵金属年度报告 2025-11-30 贵金属的黄金时代 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 王育武 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：wangyuwu@ ...

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 整体来看，2025 年生猪市场整体呈震荡下行趋势，核心因素在于产能端能繁母猪存栏量保持稳定，进而使得全年价格波动幅度相对 温和。尽管能繁母猪存栏仍处于绿色合理区间，但行业生产效能的持续提升，叠加政策导向下出栏节奏的调整，共同推动猪价逐步 回落，行业整体陷入亏损状态...... 产能逐步去化，猪周期有望迎来拐点 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 白旭宇 期货研究报告 | 养殖年报 2025-11-30 产能逐步去化，猪周期有望迎来拐点 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the domestic and overseas macro - liquidity is expected to maintain a resonant and loose state, with sufficient market capital. The stock market has become an important outlet for funds, and the liquidity support for the stock market will be further strengthened. The securitization rate increase will be one of the core drivers [6]. - It is necessary to pay attention to the profit repair progress in the second stage of the bull market. The profit bottom of the entire A - share market is expected to appear at the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026, and the market may shift from the previous structural differentiation to full - scale spread, driving the four major indexes upward. The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 indexes are expected to rise steadily, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes may have stronger performance - driven market conditions [6]. - Under the guidance of the capital market policies promoted by the new "Nine - National - Point Plan", the stock index market will tend to the mid - and large - cap style in the long term. In 2026, the market driven by profit and industry policies will focus on the cycle and technology sectors, and the performance of the CSI 500 index will be more prominent [7]. Summary by Directory I. Internal and External Liquidity Remains Abundant 1. The US is Expected to Continue Cutting Interest Rates - The US labor market is weak, with indicators such as the continuous rise in the number of initial jobless claims and a peak in corporate lay - offs in October 2025. The unemployment rate of high - skilled groups has reached a new high since 2022 [12]. - The deterioration of the labor market has strengthened the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts. The current round of interest rate cuts may last until the end of 2026, with the target rate possibly falling below 1%, and the cumulative rate cut may exceed 300 basis points [13]. 2. Domestic Liquidity Remains Ample - The domestic economy faces pressure in investment, export, and consumption, but still maintains a stable and progressive overall trend. New productive forces are growing, and the necessity of continuing loose monetary and active fiscal policies in 2026 is more prominent [17]. - The central bank has ensured reasonable and ample liquidity through various tools. The policy interest rate has remained stable, and the market interest rate has run at a low level. The M1 - M2 scissors - gap has continued to narrow, indicating an improvement in the activation of funds [23]. 3. The Ranking of Stock Index Investment Rises - The yields of traditional assets such as bonds and real estate have declined, while the performance of the equity market has been excellent. The gap in yields between traditional and equity assets has widened [26]. - Policy guidance, such as encouraging insurance funds to increase equity allocation and optimizing the investment scope of public funds, has accelerated the flow of funds into the equity market. Various types of funds are increasing their equity market allocation [27]. II. Focus on Profits in the Second Stage of the Bull Market 1. System Optimization Consolidates the Foundation for a Long - Term Bull Market - The new "Nine - National - Point Plan" in 2024 is a milestone for the capital market to turn to fundamental investment. In 2025, the regulatory authorities further optimized the system in terms of investment and financing reform, market stability, and opening - up [48]. 2. The Profit Inflection Point is Approaching - China's economic growth is expected to remain at around 4% in 2026, providing support for the capital market. The market is transitioning from a liquidity - driven to a fundamentals - driven stage, and corporate profit repair is the core concern [53]. - The prices of upstream industrial products and inflation levels are key factors. Metal prices have strengthened, and PPI is expected to enter a mild repair channel in 2026. The profit repair of the cycle sector is highly certain [54]. - The profit of the entire A - share market (excluding finance and petroleum and petrochemical sectors) is expected to bottom out at the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026. The performance of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes may be stronger [62]. 3. Stock Index Investment Tends Towards Large - Cap Indexes - The "Buffett Indicator" of the A - share market shows that there is still room for the securitization rate to increase. The market investment style is tilting towards large - cap stocks, and the performance of the CSI 500 index may be more prominent in 2026 [68].

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 预计 2026 年锡价在供应难有保障，而需求则是在"十五五"规划的刺激以及美联储降息持续的背景下维持...... 缅甸复产暂不及预期 需求存在潜在增长点 新能源&有色组行业锡年报 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号 F3080232 投资咨询号 Z0016047 师橙 从业资格号 F3046665 投资咨询号 Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号 F03139777 投资咨询号 Z0021579 缅甸复产暂不及预期 需求存在潜在增长点 策略摘要 2025 年下半年以来，佤邦雨季致复产及出口不及预期，进口矿加工费跌至 1.1 万，供应端干扰仍存。而需求则是在"十五五"规划相关板块的刺激下或将 呈现逐步转强的情况，价格重心预计在 2026 年仍将上行。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 价格展望： 预计 2026 年锡价在供应难有保障，而需求则是在"十五五"规 划的刺激以及美联储降息持续的背景下维持震荡偏强格局，高点或触及 37 万元 /吨至 38 万元/吨区间。 矿端：2025 下半年锡精矿"紧平衡"难破：佤 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The urea market in 2026 is expected to rise first and then fall, with range-bound fluctuations. The supply is expected to remain loose due to continuous capacity expansion, while demand is likely to show a slight growth trend. Export policies are a key uncertain factor [1][7]. - The cost of coal is expected to move slightly higher in 2026, and the industry's production profit may remain at a marginal level due to the continuous release of new capacity [6]. - The report suggests a cash - futures positive spread strategy and recommends a 5 - 9 positive spread based on seasonality [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Market Review - In 2025, affected by the reduction in export scale in 2024 and the continuous effectiveness of domestic supply - stabilizing and price - controlling policies, the spot price of urea entered a downward channel in Q4 2024 and remained weak throughout 2025, with the annual average price at a near - five - year low. The price fluctuated in different periods due to factors such as agricultural demand, export policies, and macro - market sentiment [17]. 3.2 Urea Capacity and Production - In 2025, the urea industry faced increasing supply pressure, with new capacity of 591 million tons/year, mainly concentrated in Q2 and Q3. The domestic capacity was expected to reach 81.31 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 7.84%. The daily output reached a new high in recent years, and the annual average operating rate was expected to remain above 80%. The cumulative production by October was 59.0652 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.85%, and the full - year output was expected to exceed 70 million tons. In 2026, it is still a year of concentrated new device commissioning, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 6.48% [23]. - The 2025 and 2026 China urea commissioning tables list specific enterprises, commissioning times, and capacities. In 2025, the total commissioned capacity was 591 million tons/year, and in 2026, it is expected to be 527 million tons/year [30]. 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - In 2025, coal prices showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and natural gas prices increased slightly in Q4. The production profit of urea enterprises was good in the first half of the year but shrank significantly in the second half as the product price dropped rapidly. Currently, the profit structure is clearly differentiated, with natural gas and fixed - bed processes in the loss area and new coal gasification processes still profitable. In 2026, the production profit is expected to remain at a marginal level [32]. - The overall operating rate of urea declined in Q4 2025, mainly due to the technical transformation and maintenance of fixed - bed devices in Shanxi and the loss - based maintenance of some enterprises. In the long - term, technological iteration is a key variable, and the continuous progress of fixed - bed technological transformation will drive the weighted cost curve of the industry to move down systematically [43]. 3.4 Urea Import and Export - In 2025, the total import and export volume of urea is expected to return to the 2023 level. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. The export volume gradually recovered as exports were gradually liberalized, and by October, a total of 4.01 million tons had been exported, with the full - year export expected to return to the 2023 level. In 2026, the export expectation continues to improve, but export policies are a core variable [53]. - In 2025, China's urea export showed significant phased characteristics. The export volume was low in the first half of the year and increased rapidly in the second half due to factors such as the relaxation of export policies and the tightening of international supply. The export focus is gradually shifting to Southeast Asia and countries along the Belt and Road, and India's demand is still strong [56]. 3.5 Urea Consumption and Inventory - In 2025, the urea market showed a "strong first and weak later" supply - demand pattern. The apparent consumption is expected to increase slightly by 1.58% year - on - year, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2026, the demand is expected to maintain a moderate growth trend, but the growth rate may be affected by seasonality and policies [67]. - Agricultural demand is the largest downstream demand for urea. High - standard farmland construction will increase urea consumption, but the growth rate will gradually slow down. Black - land protection will reduce some urea consumption, while saline - alkali land treatment will bring incremental demand. The overall agricultural demand is expected to grow at an annual compound growth rate of about 4% [68]. - The production and sales of compound fertilizers are seasonally significant. The procurement strategy of compound fertilizer enterprises has changed from "buying at low prices" to "pricing at selected points", which has postponed the demand for urea. The overall consumption of urea by compound fertilizers increases slightly with agricultural demand [77]. - Industrial demand, mainly from melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin, accounts for 25% of the total urea demand. The demand is closely related to the real - estate cycle. Currently, domestic demand is weak, but exports have provided some support, and the future demand is expected to remain weakly stable [92]. - The demand for urea in thermal power denitrification has entered a stock market, and the future demand will only be related to thermal power installation capacity and power generation, with the growth rate significantly slowing down and tending to be stable [8]. - As of November 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, significantly higher than the same period in previous years. The port inventory was 89,000 tons, showing a process of accumulation and then de - stocking. In 2026, the domestic urea industry is still in a capacity expansion cycle. Assuming an export volume of 7 million tons, the supply - demand will remain weakly loose [115].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the caustic soda market is expected to show a pattern of synchronous growth in supply and demand, but there will be a phased mismatch in rhythm and structure. The PVC market will face the triple characteristics of "high supply, pressured demand, and improved exports". The caustic soda market is expected to be volatile with a wide range, and the PVC market is expected to be volatile with a narrow range and the price center may move up [2][9]. - For caustic soda, the supply - side new capacity will continue to be released, and the demand - side main downstream alumina industry has a complex situation of "new investment and production cut expectations coexisting". For PVC, although the new capacity release slows down, the existing capacity output is still at a high level, and the industry is generally under pressure in a low - profit environment [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Annual Trend Review - In 2025, the PVC market fluctuated downward in the first half of the year and first rose then fell in the second half. The price was affected by factors such as social inventory, policy expectations, and overseas macro - uncertainties. The caustic soda market showed the characteristics of "falling from a high level and fluctuating in a range", and its price was driven by factors such as alumina demand, non - aluminum industry procurement rhythm, and chlor - alkali comprehensive cost [17][18]. Chlor - alkali New Capacity Situation - In 2025, the planned new capacity of the domestic PVC industry was 220 tons, and all were fulfilled by September, with a capacity growth rate of about 8%. In 2026, there is no clear new capacity plan. The new capacity of the domestic caustic soda industry in 2025 was significantly lower than expected, with only 90 tons added, and the planned new capacity in 2026 is about 256 tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 5% [23][27]. Chlor - alkali Supply and Production Profit - **PVC**: As of October 2025, the cumulative PVC output was 2013 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%. The production profit was in a deep - loss range for most of the time, and the industry supply pressure continued to exist [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: As of October 2025, the cumulative caustic soda output was 3514 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48%. The production profit was generally profitable, but it declined in November [48]. PVC and Caustic Soda Basis Trend and Future Judgment - **PVC**: In 2025, the PVC market maintained a negative basis structure. In the future, the negative basis structure will still be the norm, but the level may narrow slightly. - **Caustic Soda**: In 2025, the caustic soda basis fluctuated sharply. In 2026, the negative basis may appear more frequently, and the overall basis center level may face downward pressure [60][61]. Chlor - alkali Import and Export Analysis - **PVC**: From January to October 2025, the domestic PVC export volume was 323 tons, a year - on - year increase of 48.85%. The export to India is expected to be further boosted, and the export to other regions is also increasing. PVC products export showed a pattern of mixed performance in 2025 [67][85]. - **Caustic Soda**: From January to October 2025, the domestic caustic soda cumulative export volume was 349 tons, a year - on - year increase of 42%. Indonesia and Australia are the main export destinations [90]. Chlor - alkali Demand Status and Outlook - **PVC**: In 2025, the PVC market showed a pattern of "increased supply, high - growth exports, and weak domestic demand". In 2026, the demand will still be dragged down by the real - estate market and maintain a weak and stable state [103]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand for caustic soda is mainly concentrated in industries such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, and papermaking. In 2026, the new alumina capacity may bring new demand for caustic soda, but there are uncertainties [121][122]. Chlor - alkali Inventory Status and Outlook - In 2025, the PVC social inventory showed a pattern of year - on - year accumulation. In 2026, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals are expected to remain loose, and the marginal change in export demand will be the key variable affecting the social inventory destocking rhythm [142][145].