Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral. [4] Core Viewpoints - The macro - atmosphere is favorable, and attention should be paid to cost - side changes. The tense situation in Iran is supporting the rebound of oil prices. In the PX market, short - term supply is expected to increase, but the outlook for the second quarter of next year is good. For PTA, the short - term inventory situation is acceptable, and the processing fee is expected to improve in the long - term. The demand side of polyester is weakening, and different products in the polyester industry have different performance in terms of profit and inventory. [1][2][4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis. [10][13][15] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korea's xylene isomerization profit, and South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit. [20][24] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Cover toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit. [26][28] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia. [29][32][34] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Present PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt data of PTA, PX, and PF. [39][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Involve the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of different types of filaments, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. [49][51][59] PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber's operating rate, factory equity inventory days, production profit, and the operating rates and profits of related products such as pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn. [76][80][90] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Show polyester bottle - chip's operating rate, factory inventory days, processing fees (spot and export), export profit, and price spreads. [93][98][100]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the domestic important meetings and the Fed's return to the "restrictive" stance, there is a risk of the policy expectations at home and abroad swinging back, and the asset sentiment deviates from the macro situation. Attention should be paid to the specific domestic policy announcements and Trump's announced candidates for the Fed Chair [1] - Since October, there has been a certain divergence in the domestic and foreign economic outlooks. The overseas economic outlook has been continuously declining, but China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November economic data is under pressure, while the December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs are better than expected. The US November non - farm payrolls recovered but are still weak, and the December ISM manufacturing index fell slightly [2] - Currently, focus on the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors with high certainty, and also pay attention to the opportunities for low - valued commodities to catch up. In the energy sector, focus on the expected increase in crude oil supply after the US "temporarily manages" Venezuela, and also pay attention to the situation in Iran. In the chemical sector, pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA and other varieties. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig diseases. For precious metals, consider buying on dips [3] - For commodities and stock index futures, go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations may swing back. After the central economic work conference and the 2026 PBOC work conference, the directions of boosting consumption and promoting "anti - involution" remain unchanged. The Fed's stance and geopolitical tensions may affect asset prices. On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded 13 consecutive positive days, reaching a new high in more than a decade [1] Domestic and Foreign Economic Situation - There is a divergence between domestic and foreign economic outlooks. Overseas economic outlook has declined since October, while China's exports and new orders are positive. China's November economic data is under pressure, and the December official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs are better than expected. The US November non - farm payrolls recovered but are still weak, and the December ISM manufacturing index fell slightly [2] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. In the non - ferrous sector, aluminum is a preferred choice. In the energy sector, focus on the US - Venezuela situation and the Iran situation. In the chemical sector, pay attention to methanol and PTA. For agricultural products, pay attention to weather and pig diseases. For precious metals, consider buying on dips. On January 6, many commodity futures had significant price increases [3] Strategy - Go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [4] Important News - The 2026 PBOC work conference emphasized the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. The Shanghai Composite Index recorded 13 consecutive positive days. The US December ISM manufacturing index fell. There were developments in the Venezuela situation. Many commodity prices reached new highs or had significant increases [6]

化工日报 | 2026-01-07 EG价格反弹，关注地缘变化 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3838元/吨（较前一交易日变动+106元/吨，幅度+2.84%），EG华东市场现货 价3680元/吨（较前一交易日变动+40元/吨，幅度+1.10%），EG华东现货基差-129元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。受海外局势 影响，化工品表现偏强，乙二醇价格重心适度抬升。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-93美元/吨（环比-6美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-898 元/吨（环比-41元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数8.3万吨，副 港到港量2.5万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数17.8万吨，副港到港量5.8万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷回升至7成以上高位，1~2月高供 应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大；海外供应方面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Core View - The spot market supply remains tight, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor, the domestic smelter comprehensive smelting loss expands, the supply pressure decreases, and the fundamentals are bullish. The zinc valuation is low, the future consumption is optimistic, the interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and the re - inflation has not yet been reflected [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$36.30/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose 370 yuan/ton to 24,340 yuan/ton with a premium of 110 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose 370 yuan/ton to 24,240 yuan/ton with a premium of 10 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price rose 370 yuan/ton to 24,260 yuan/ton with a premium of 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On January 6, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,775 yuan/ton, closed at 24,295 yuan/ton, up 540 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 177,175 lots, and the open interest was 96,459 lots. The highest price was 24,420 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,775 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of January 6, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 105,775 tons, down 75 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - The spot market supply is tight, the downstream is reluctant to buy at high prices, the domestic smelting loss increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The fundamentals are favorable, the zinc valuation is low, and the future consumption is expected to be good [1][5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-07 基本面变化有限 但有色整体带动铅价上行 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-01-06，LME铅现货升水为-45.52美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化125元/吨至17350 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化75元/ 吨至17375元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化100元/吨至17375元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化100元/吨至17400元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-125元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至10025元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化50元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10400 元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-06，沪铅主力合约开于17385元/吨，收于17520元/吨，较前一交易日变化125元/吨，全天交易 日成交56885手，较前一交易日变化18820手，全天交易日持仓51000手，手较前一交易日变化3456手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17670元/吨，最低 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw continues, and treasury bond futures close down across the board. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - The current fiscal policy aims to stabilize the aggregate, adjust the structure, and provide support. In the short term, it provides some support to the economy, but stronger impetus depends on the implementation of quasi - fiscal funds and next year's policy intensification [2]. - The financial data in November is generally weak. The follow - up stable growth still depends more on the monetary side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 0.70%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.20% [9]. - **Economic indicators (monthly update)**: The social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.54%; M2 year - on - year is 8.00%, with a decrease of 0.20% and a decline rate of 2.44%; the manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with an increase of 0.90% and a growth rate of 1.83% [10]. - **Economic indicators (daily update)**: The US dollar index is 98.60, with a month - on - month increase of 0.27 and a growth rate of 0.27%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9763, with a month - on - month increase of 0.000 and a growth rate of 0.01% etc. [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing prices and price changes on January 6, 2026**: The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.37 yuan, 105.57 yuan, 107.70 yuan, and 110.93 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.05%, - 0.11%, - 0.13%, and - 0.31% respectively [3]. - **Net basis spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.048 yuan, - 0.026 yuan, 0.034 yuan, and - 0.055 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - In November, the year - on - year growth of general public budget revenue slowed down due to the high base, but the annual revenue progress was still fast. The expenditure decline narrowed significantly, and the structure was more inclined to people's livelihood and investment. The government - funded revenue was still dragged down by the real estate market, but the accelerated issuance of special bonds drove the year - on - year increase in expenditure [2]. - The financial data in November was generally weak. Credit was still supported by bills and short - term loans, and the medium - and long - term financing needs of residents and enterprises continued to decline. The growth rate of social financing remained at 8.5%, mainly hedged by corporate bonds and off - balance - sheet financing [2]. - On January 6, 2026, the central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 1.62 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.263%, 1.422%, 1.465%, and 1.569% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview The report provides various spread data, such as the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread relationships between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [28][34][40]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows data such as the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [38][41][46]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures It includes the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract [47][51]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract [52][53]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures It contains the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract [58][60]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral strategy**: As repurchase rates decline, treasury bond futures prices oscillate [4]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis spread [4]. - **Hedging strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure. Short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-07 需求相对偏淡 但宏观因素令铜价维持偏强态势 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-06，沪铜主力合约开于 100890元/吨，收于 105320元/吨，较前一交易日收盘3.92%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于104480元/吨，收于 104600 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.68%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价呈现贴水100元至升水60元区间，均价报贴水20元，较昨日下跌55元。 期铜主力早盘自102880元攀升至104100元后涨幅收窄。市场方面，平水铜由早间升水迅速转为贴水成交，午后贴 水扩大至100-70元，交投迟滞。预计高铜价将继续抑制需求，现货维持贴水格局，但需留意交割前可能的收货行为。 重要资讯汇总： 地缘方面，一名美国高级官员表示，特朗普总统及其团队正在讨论多种获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括从丹麦购买该 领土、与格陵兰建立自由联系协定，军事手段亦被列为选项之一。该官员称，特朗普希望在其本届任期内完成对 格陵兰岛的获取，并表示这一议题"不会消失"。白宫方面将获取格陵兰岛视为国家安全优先事项，尽管部分北约 领导人提出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot trading of propylene has continued to improve, and attention should be paid to the disturbances on the cost side [2][3]. - On the supply side, propylene production has remained at a high level, and the upstream start - up has steadily recovered. There is still no obvious phenomenon of PDH loss and maintenance in the short term. In January, some PDH devices are expected to be overhauled, and the supply pressure in the propylene market may be alleviated periodically [3]. - On the demand side, downstream buyers enter the market at low prices for rigid - demand procurement. The spot trading of propylene has improved, and the overall start - up of PP powder has increased. The demand for propylene at the PP end is expected to rise. The profit of butanol and octanol is acceptable, and the start - up is expected to remain stable. The start - up of PO has declined slightly due to the reduction of some device loads. However, propylene is expected to rise further, which will continue to squeeze downstream profits, and the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [3]. - The international oil price has rebounded slightly due to the intensification of geopolitical situations, and the disturbance of oil prices has increased. The CP official price of propane in January has risen more than expected, and the cost - side support has recently strengthened. However, the rebound space is still limited under the limited improvement of the supply - demand fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side and the implementation of PDH device overhauls [3]. - The strategy suggests waiting and seeing. The supply - demand situation has improved slightly in the short term, but the support is still limited. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate strongly under the boost of sentiment, waiting for marginal device overhauls [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - This part may include figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, PL01 - 03 contract spreads, PL03 - 05 contract spreads, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][7][13]. II. Propylene Production Profit and Startup Rate - Relevant figures include the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [5][21][24]. III. Propylene Downstream Profit and Startup Rate - It involves figures such as the production profit and startup rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [5][39][52]. IV. Propylene Inventory - This part includes figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [5][65].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-07 双硅同步走强，减产支撑上行 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-01-06，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8730元/吨，最后收于8900元/吨，较前一日结算变化（120） 元/吨，变化（1.37）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓234611手，2026-01-05仓单总数为10687手，较前一日变化 456手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计12月31日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.7万吨，较上周变化0.36%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。近日新疆石河子地区发布污染橙色警报，供应预 期收缩，短期供应压力减少支撑价格上行。有机硅企业周度产量环比变化有限。减排挺价背景下，有机硅单体企 业从12月初开始陆续降负减产。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current price is mainly influenced by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow, and there is a divergence between the futures and spot markets. The short - term increase is too large, and there is a need to be vigilant against the risk of a pullback [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 6, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 132,600 yuan/ton and closed at 137,940 yuan/ton. The closing price increased by 8.99% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 304,237 lots, and the open interest was 534,999 lots (the previous day's open interest was 515,292 lots). The current basis was - 9,600 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 23,141 lots, a change of 2,860 lots from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 120,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 118,500 - 130,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 7,250 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,680 US dollars/ton, an increase of 113 US dollars/ton [2] Policy Impact - On December 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a document clarifying the subsidy policy for automobile trade - ins in 2026, which significantly improved the expectation of the decline in new - energy vehicle demand in the first quarter. On January 4, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", which affected small and medium - sized mines in lithium mica production areas such as Yichun, Jiangxi, and strengthened the market's expectation of supply tightening [2] Inventory and Production - The total spot inventory was 109,605 tons, a decrease of 168 tons month - on - month. Among them, the smelter inventory was 17,667 tons, a decrease of 184 tons; the downstream inventory was 38,998 tons, a decrease of 894 tons; other inventories were 52,940 tons, an increase of 910 tons. The inventory depletion speed continued to slow, and the weekly output reached 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [2] Strategy Suggestion - Unilateral: Short - term range trading. Pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and sell on rallies for hedging when the opportunity arises. Options, inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, and spot - futures strategies are not provided [3][4]