Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see, focus on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - The domestic LPG market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Although overseas supply has tightened marginally and the external market is strong, the domestic market's response is limited. The price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG market, and the game between warehouse receipts and delivery also disturbs the market. In the short - term, the fundamentals are mixed, and in the medium - term, the global LPG balance is expected to be oversupplied. The escalation of the geopolitical situation may lead to a supply shortage [1] Market Analysis Summary Regional Spot Prices - On January 6, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4400 - 4460 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3960 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market 4000 - 4420 yuan/ton; East China market 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4750 - 4950 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4200 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market 4800 - 4950 yuan/ton [1] Import Prices - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 596 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton, and butane was 591 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton, equivalent to 4608 yuan/ton for propane and 4569 yuan/ton for butane, both down 8 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of propane was 589 US dollars/ton, stable, and butane was 584 US dollars/ton, stable, equivalent to 4554 yuan/ton for propane and 4515 yuan/ton for butane, both stable [1] Market Situation - The domestic civil gas spot price continued to rise, but the ether - after carbon four market was relatively flat. The LPG market is "strong overseas and weak domestic". The short - term fundamentals are mixed, and the medium - term global supply is expected to exceed demand. The escalation of the geopolitical situation may tighten the LPG supply [1] Chart Information - The report provides charts on spot prices of civil liquefied gas and ether - after carbon four in different regions, as well as closing prices, price differences, and trading volumes of PG futures contracts [3][10][17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] Core Views of the Report - The cotton market shows a short - term supply - demand imbalance with pressure on ICE cotton in the short - term, while long - term cotton prices are expected to be bullish. The sugar market is in a surplus situation in the short - to - medium term, but long - term prices are not overly pessimistic. The pulp market is affected by supply disruptions and may see a short - term bullish trend, but the long - term depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [2][5][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,855 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (+1.36%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,487 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,711 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton. As of December 25, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed 1.519 million tons of 2025/26 cotton exports, reaching 57.20% of the annual expected exports, and shipped 674,000 tons with a shipment rate of 44.39%. China had cumulatively signed 68,000 tons of US cotton and shipped 26,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's December adjustment to global cotton supply - demand data was small, with both production and demand decreasing in the 25/26 season and a slight increase in ending inventory. US cotton production increased slightly, with greater inventory pressure. The short - term ICE cotton is under pressure, and the long - term downward space is limited. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season. As the sales progress accelerated, the hedging resistance on the disk weakened. However, downstream demand showed a marginal weakening trend [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral to bullish. In the whole year, domestic cotton consumption is expected to increase due to the expansion of spinning capacity. With high production and consumption and low imports, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and there may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year. Considering the possible reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year, long - term cotton prices are expected to be bullish, but short - term high - level corrections should be vigilant [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5259 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5200 yuan/ton, unchanged. Bihar in India plans to expand sugarcane planting area and restart and build sugar mills [4] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. In the 25/26 season, the global sugar market is in a surplus. In the short - term, the further decline space of raw sugar is limited, but the rebound momentum is restricted. In the long - term, there are uncertainties in weather and sugar - making ratio, and some institutions predict a decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season and a reduction in Thailand's planting area. Domestically, sugar production is expected to increase for the third year, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The import profit from Brazil is high, and the supply pressure is still there, but the import of syrup and premix may decrease next year [5][6] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The domestic fundamental driving force is still downward. Although the valuation is low, there is still a possibility of a new low, but the overall decline space is limited. In the short - to - medium term, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate and bottom out [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5612 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton (+1.48%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market showed a strengthening trend, with some prices of imported softwood and hardwood pulp rising by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, while the prices of imported natural and chemimechanical pulp remained stable [8] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price was strong. On the supply side, there were continuous news of overseas pulp mill shutdowns and maintenance. On the demand side, the European port wood pulp inventory continued to decline in November, indicating improving demand. Domestically, although there was a large - scale production capacity of finished paper this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the port inventory was still at a high level. However, the port inventory has been declining recently, and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity next year may support pulp prices [9] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Overseas supply disruptions continue, and there is an expectation of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. The domestic demand may show a moderate recovery, and the short - term trend is expected to be bullish, but the upward height depends on the improvement of demand and inventory digestion [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market has a firm price bottom supported by suppliers' reluctance to sell and policy measures, with potential upward momentum from pre - holiday stocking expectations, but current demand is weak [2] - The peanut market has strong price support due to the reluctance of the grassroots and some buyers to sell, but the demand side is weak overall, and the focus is on the pre - holiday stocking rhythm of downstream users [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean one 2605 contract was 4276.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible bean spot basis was A05 + 84, down 13 or 32.14% from the previous day. Northeast soybean prices generally rose due to policy benefits and limited remaining grain at the grassroots level. Southern soybean spot prices were stable with light trading [1][2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 8062.00 yuan/ton, up 124.00 yuan/ton or 1.56% from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8036.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 1062.00, down 124.00 or 13.22% from the previous day. The overall demand was weak, and the price performance of oil peanuts varied [3][5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6] Risk - The risk is weakening demand [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The valuation center of the February contract is continuously rising, and Maersk's quotes are slightly increasing. The EC2602 contract's valuation continues to climb as online quotes from MSC and Maersk rise in the fourth week of January. The 02 contract's valuation support is estimated to be between 1820 - 1920 points under relatively pessimistic assumptions. Near - term, attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of January [1][5][7]. - Far - month contracts face pressure from the potential reopening of the Suez Canal, which may suppress their valuations, but the extent of the impact remains uncertain. Contracts in the off - season face valuation pressure, while contracts in June and August (slightly peak seasons) still have uncertain prospects. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels (over 17000 TEU) in the first half of 2026 is relatively small [7]. - The strategy suggests a bullish and volatile trend for the February contract, and there is currently no arbitrage opportunity [9]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Futures Prices - As of January 6, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures is 58,675.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 34,329.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1872.70, 1223.80, 1417.00, 1533.20, 1105.30, and 1313.20 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price fluctuations. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote in the third week of January is 1635/2630, and in the fourth week it is 1680/2700. HPL's quotes also change over different periods. OA alliance's offline prices in the first half of January are around 2800 - 2900 dollars/FEU, and the actual freight rates are relatively firm [1][2][5]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. In terms of future delivery expectations, the delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU vessels in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships each year [3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January is 318,600 TEU, in February it is 283,500 TEU, and in March it is 272,400 TEU. There are different numbers of empty sailings and TBNs (To Be Notified) in each month [4]. IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Saudi Arabia has invited Yemeni local armed forces for dialogue, and the Southern Transitional Council has expressed its welcome. The potential reopening of the Suez Canal is expected to impact the freight rates of far - month contracts. Currently, some shipping routes have started to resume operations, such as CMA's FAL1 and FAL3 routes, and Maersk has tentatively resumed its Red Sea route [3][7]. V. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery and settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. In normal years from 2017 - 2019, the SCFI Shanghai - Europe route freight rate was roughly between 600 - 1200 dollars/FEU, corresponding to SCFIS of about 600 - 1400 points [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, suggesting buying the main contract of BU on dips without over - chasing the rise; for the inter - period strategy, it is recommended to buy the spread of BU2303/2306 on dips (positive spread trading); there are no suggestions for inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] 2. Core View - On January 6, the closing price of the main BU2603 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,156 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.22% from the previous settlement price. The position was 209,414 lots, up 6,685 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 224,437 lots, down 25,877 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were 3,306 - 3,500 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,020 - 3,190 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,100 - 3,150 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,100 - 3,200 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in North China, East China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions continued to rise, while that in South China slightly declined, and those in other regions remained basically stable [1] - Although the spot circulation in South China increased slightly due to the implementation of new contracts from Jingbo Hainan, the overall spot circulation in some areas was still tight, and the price - holding mentality in local markets was strong, so the average domestic asphalt price continued to rise [1] - Due to the uncertain situation in South America, there is still an expectation of tightened crude oil supply from Venezuela. Although refineries can find alternative heavy - quality raw materials from the Middle East, Canada, and South America in the future, the cost increase is inevitable, providing short - term support to the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures market: The closing price of the main BU2603 contract of asphalt futures on January 6 was 3,156 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% from the previous settlement price. The position increased, and the trading volume decreased [1] - Spot market: The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt varied by region. The prices in some regions rose, some declined slightly, and some remained stable. The overall average domestic asphalt price continued to rise due to tight supply in some areas [1] - Cost side: Uncertainties in the South American situation lead to an expectation of tightened Venezuelan crude oil supply. Although there are alternative raw materials, cost increase is likely, providing short - term market support [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish, buy the main contract of BU on dips, avoid over - chasing the rise [2] - Inter - period: Buy the spread of BU2303/2306 on dips (positive spread trading) [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

农产品日报 | 2026-01-07 情绪呈现好转，猪价平稳回升 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11810元/吨，较前交易日变动+150.00元/吨，幅度+1.29%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格12.84元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+1030，较前交易日变动-50；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 12.99元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.04元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1180，较前交易日变动-110； 四川地区外三元生猪价格12.75元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+940，较前交易日变动-150。 据农业农村部监测，1月6日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.28，比昨天下降0.34个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为131.96，比昨天下降0.39个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.99元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；牛肉66.12 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.3%；羊肉63.08元/公斤，比昨天上升0.3%；鸡蛋7.44元/公斤，比昨天下降0.9%；白条鸡17.72 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%。 市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand contradiction of electrolytic aluminum has not changed significantly, with consumption shifting from peak to off - peak season. The sharp rise in absolute prices suppresses actual consumption, and there is a need to be vigilant against post - rally corrections. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities between aluminum and aluminum alloy during the off - peak season [6]. - The supply of alumina remains in excess, with increasing social inventory. There is limited impetus for continuous price increases, and there will be opportunities for selling hedging after the price rally [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 23,910 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is - 220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,680 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 23,860 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 6, 2026, the main Shanghai aluminum contract opened at 23,560 yuan/ton, closed at 24,335 yuan/ton, up 775 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,375 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,500 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 551,669 lots, and the open interest was 253,076 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of January 6, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 684,000 tons, up 15,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 84,204 tons, up 1,408 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 504,250 tons, down 2,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 6, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,660 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,600 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,685 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,750 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,790 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 305 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 6, 2026, the main alumina contract opened at 2,762 yuan/ton, closed at 2,818 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.90% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,846 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,762 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 717,654 lots, and the open interest was 429,905 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 6, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil aluminum scrap was 17,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical aluminum scrap was 18,200 yuan/ton, both up 400 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,200 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 70,200 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,600 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,880 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 120 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The supply - demand contradiction has not changed significantly. Consumption is shifting from peak to off - peak season, with the sharp rise in absolute prices suppressing actual consumption. The downstream processing product start - up rate and output are declining, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is increasing [6]. Alumina - The supply is in excess, with increasing social inventory. There is limited impetus for continuous price increases, and the price of overseas ore has room for a slight decline [8]. Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum is cautiously bullish, alumina is cautiously bearish, and aluminum alloy is cautiously bullish. Arbitrage is neutral [9].

美伊地缘局势，带动甲醇盘面上涨 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤500元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润375元/吨（+3）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1850元/吨（+3），内蒙北线基差157元/吨（-76），内蒙南线1880元/吨（+25）；山东临沂2225元/吨（+15）， 鲁南基差132元/吨（-63）；河南2100元/吨（+10），河南基差7元/吨（-68）；河北2085元/吨（+30），河北基差52元/ 吨（-48）。隆众内地工厂库存422590吨（+18620），西北工厂库存253500吨（+22000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单182510 吨（-11118），西北工厂待发订单94200吨（-1300）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2268元/吨（+48），太仓基差-25元/吨（-30），CFR中国262美元/吨（+5），华东进口价差-27元/ 吨（-20），常州甲醇2330元/吨；广东甲醇2260元/吨（+60），广东基差-33元/吨（-18）。隆众港口总库存1477408吨 （+64899），江苏港口库存843845吨（+28554），浙江港口库存203300吨（+ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is to be oscillating and bullish, the UR05 - 09 is recommended to conduct long - short arbitrage at low prices, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3] Core View - After the New Year's Day in 2026, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas of urea were lifted, the transaction improved, the futures market was oscillating and bullish, which further boosted the spot purchasing sentiment, and the spot price increased slightly. The mainstream producers continued the limited - purchase policy, and the pending orders increased. The supply increased as some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production in January after the gas - based maintenance in the fourth quarter started in December. The off - season storage procurement was in progress. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer market cooled down due to the raw material supply - guarantee policies, but the start - up rate rebounded and the procurement improved after the environmental protection restrictions were lifted in some areas after New Year's Day. Melamine had rigid demand for procurement. The inventory in urea plants and ports decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd received 3.62 million tons of bids from 26 suppliers, with the lowest quotes rising by $5 - 8 per ton compared to the previous tender, which boosted the international urea market sentiment. The domestic export quota has no new news, and the export dynamics, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - It includes charts of Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [6][7][9][14][16] 2. Urea Output - It contains charts of urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves charts of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [25][27][29] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - It includes charts of urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, price differences, urea export profit, and disk export profit [34][36][39][42][48] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It has charts of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [49][50] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It contains charts of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of Hebei urea downstream manufacturers, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume [53][56][60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral. [4] Core Viewpoints - The macro - atmosphere is favorable, and attention should be paid to cost - side changes. The tense situation in Iran is supporting the rebound of oil prices. In the PX market, short - term supply is expected to increase, but the outlook for the second quarter of next year is good. For PTA, the short - term inventory situation is acceptable, and the processing fee is expected to improve in the long - term. The demand side of polyester is weakening, and different products in the polyester industry have different performance in terms of profit and inventory. [1][2][4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis. [10][13][15] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korea's xylene isomerization profit, and South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit. [20][24] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Cover toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit. [26][28] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia. [29][32][34] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Present PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt data of PTA, PX, and PF. [39][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Involve the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of different types of filaments, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. [49][51][59] PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber's operating rate, factory equity inventory days, production profit, and the operating rates and profits of related products such as pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn. [76][80][90] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Show polyester bottle - chip's operating rate, factory inventory days, processing fees (spot and export), export profit, and price spreads. [93][98][100]