Key Insights - The report highlights the optimistic growth trajectory of the semiconductor industry in 2025, driven by AI demand and ongoing domestic substitution efforts [4][27] - The report emphasizes the increasing interest in convertible bonds on the Beijing Stock Exchange, suggesting they may become a key tool for strategic investments amid a supportive policy environment for mergers and acquisitions [3] - The lithium carbonate market has experienced significant price fluctuations due to supply contraction expectations and regulatory actions against illegal mining, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][7] Semiconductor Industry - In June, the overall chip delivery times increased, with certain categories experiencing extended lead times, while the spot market remained stable [4][23] - Storage prices, particularly for LPDDR4X, saw substantial increases due to delays in packaging substrate deliveries and tight resource supply [4][23] - The forecast for Q3 2025 indicates a continued rise in delivery times and significant price increases for DRAM and NAND Flash products, driven by strong enterprise demand and AI investments [24][27] Lithium Market - The main lithium contract saw an 18.3% increase in the week of July 25, reaching 80,520 RMB/ton, marking a 37.9% rise from the June low [5][7] - Regulatory actions in July aimed at addressing illegal mining practices have intensified supply contraction expectations, contributing to price volatility [5][7] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies in the semiconductor storage sector, particularly those benefiting from price increases and domestic substitution trends [26][27] - It also recommends monitoring firms involved in the nuclear fusion sector, as the establishment of China Fusion Energy Co. is expected to accelerate investment and technological advancements in this area [7] Fund Holdings in Pharmaceuticals - As of Q2 2025, the active pharmaceutical fund size reached 191.6 billion RMB, reflecting a 3.5 billion RMB increase from Q1, while passive funds hit a record high of 143.4 billion RMB [16][29] - The report notes a shift in fund holdings, with a significant portion allocated to innovative drugs and traditional pharmaceuticals, indicating a strategic focus on growth areas within the sector [29][30]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintained Rating) [8] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a positive growth trajectory, driven by AI demand and ongoing domestic substitution efforts [20][21] - The report highlights the significant price increases in storage products, particularly DRAM and NAND Flash, with expectations of continued growth in Q3 2025 [17][19] - Key players like SK Hynix are reporting record earnings, benefiting from strong AI server demand and optimizing product structures to maintain market leadership [18][27] Summary by Sections June Semiconductor Summary and Q3 Outlook - In June, overall chip delivery times showed fluctuations, with some categories experiencing extended lead times while the spot market remained stable [16] - Storage prices continued to rise, particularly LPDDR4X, due to packaging substrate delivery delays and tight resource supply [16] - Major chip suppliers saw slight increases in delivery times and prices, with DRAM delivery times stable but prices rising significantly [16] Q3 Outlook - According to TechInsight data, most product categories are expected to see continued increases in delivery times in Q3 2025 [17] - DRAM prices are projected to rise significantly, with Consumer DDR4 expected to increase by 40-45% and overall DRAM price increases estimated at 15-20% [17] - NAND Flash prices are also expected to rise, driven by enterprise demand and AI investments, with overall contract prices projected to increase by 5-10% [17] Key Company Performance - SK Hynix reported a record high revenue of 22.2 trillion KRW (approximately 16.17 billion USD) in Q2 2025, a 35% year-on-year increase [18] - The company plans to expand HBM3E supply and has developed a UFS 4.1 chip, expected to launch related SSD products within the year [18][27] Recommended Stocks in the Storage Sector - Jiangbolong is highlighted as a key stock with dual growth potential, benefiting from storage price increases and domestic substitution in enterprise storage [19] - The company has completed compatibility certification for its DDR5 RDIMM with AMD's Threadripper PRO 9000WX series, enhancing its market position [19][22] Overall Market Outlook - The semiconductor market is expected to maintain optimistic growth in 2025, with a focus on storage, foundry, SoC, ASIC, and CIS performance elasticity [20] - The report suggests monitoring the equipment and materials sector, as domestic lithography machine advancements may catalyze significant industry changes [20][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [3][33] Core Insights - The allocation ratio of innovative drugs and traditional pharmaceuticals has significantly increased, indicating substantial room for further allocation in the overall market [4] - As of Q2 2025, the active pharmaceutical fund size reached 191.6 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.5 billion, while the passive pharmaceutical fund size reached a historical high of 143.4 billion [4][6] - The top three sectors held by active pharmaceutical theme funds in Q1 2025 were innovative drugs (41%), traditional pharmaceuticals (34%), and CDMO (13%) [4] - The pharmaceutical sector's heavy holdings in all funds accounted for 10.2%, with a slight increase of 0.7 percentage points, indicating a slight rise in overall allocation [4] Summary by Sections Fund Size and Share - As of Q2 2025, the active pharmaceutical fund size was 191.6 billion, up 3.5 billion from Q1 2025, while the passive fund size was 143.4 billion, marking a historical peak [4][6] - The active pharmaceutical fund share was 104.2 billion, down 19.6 billion from Q1 2025, primarily due to rising stock prices [9] Heavy Holdings in Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry accounted for 10.2% of heavy holdings in all funds, with a slight increase of 0.7 percentage points, while the proportion excluding pharmaceutical funds was 4.7%, up 0.1 percentage points [4] Sector Allocation - As of Q2 2025, the over-allocation levels for innovative drugs, traditional pharmaceuticals, and CDMO were notably high, while medical equipment and traditional Chinese medicine were under-allocated [14] - The over-allocation ratios for innovative drugs increased from 17.5% in Q1 2025 to 20.6% in Q2 2025, and for traditional pharmaceuticals from 2.9% to 9.4% in the same period [15] Major Holdings in Innovative and Traditional Pharmaceuticals - Key holdings in the innovative drug sector included companies like Innovent Biologics and BeiGene, while traditional pharmaceutical holdings featured companies such as Hengrui Medicine and Sinopharm [16][17]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the real estate index has shown a zigzag pattern of excess returns over the past year, characterized by short cycles, high volatility, and strong policy correlation. The average excess return during the last six upward waves reached 13%, lasting an average of 18 days [2][28][29] - It is suggested that if the upcoming political bureau meeting or related policies signal more aggressive real estate stimulus, the real estate index may initiate a new round of upward movement. However, the long-term outlook remains dependent on the stabilization of the fundamental market conditions [2][28][29] - Key themes identified include the push for orderly exit of backward production capacity to achieve high-quality development, significant investment in the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, and the high demand in the AIDC sector driven by policy [2][28][29] Group 2 - The report indicates that the domestic fiscal situation showed a slight decline in June, but land transaction recovery has led to an increase in government fund income. The overall fiscal revenue remained flat year-on-year, while tax revenue showed a positive trend [4][32] - Internationally, ongoing ceasefire negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East are being monitored, with significant political figures expressing their views on interest rate policies [4][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a cautious approach in the current market environment, as the market may experience overheating and increased volatility following recent highs [4][32] Group 3 - The report on the bond market suggests that the current "triple concerns" may be alleviating, with marginal improvements in the fundamentals and policy expectations boosting market sentiment. The bond market is expected to stabilize as the central bank's supportive stance continues [10][12] - It is noted that the bond market's rapid adjustment phase may be nearing its end, with the long-end interest rates expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.8%, indicating potential value in allocations above 1.75% [10][12] - The report also highlights the need for ongoing observation of policy outcomes from the upcoming political bureau meeting and changes in funding and deposit pricing [10][12] Group 4 - The report on the construction materials sector indicates that signs of stabilization in the real estate chain are emerging, with non-traditional building materials showing higher demand. The focus is on structural optimization and growth opportunities [21][22] - Recommendations include investing in cement companies benefiting from policy-driven capacity recovery, consumer building materials with strong growth potential, and fiberglass companies anticipating significant demand increases [21][22] - The report also mentions the potential for explosive growth in the civil explosives market driven by coal mining activities in Xinjiang [21][22]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in the domestic nuclear fusion industry, with a registered capital of 11.469 billion yuan. The company aims to transition nuclear fusion technology from research to engineering applications [1] - The global investment landscape in nuclear fusion is heating up, with the US and China leading in equity financing. As of July 2025, US fusion companies have attracted approximately $6.28 billion, while Chinese companies have secured around $2.79 billion [2] - Various companies are making substantial investments in nuclear fusion technology, including New Hope Group, which has invested about 4 billion yuan since 2017, and several startups collaborating with public channels for funding [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Establishment - China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. was officially established on July 22 in Shanghai, with significant backing from state-owned enterprises and private capital [1] - The company will focus on overall design, technology validation, and digital R&D, aiming to build a technology research platform and a capital operation platform [1] Section 2: Investment Trends - The report highlights a surge in investments in nuclear fusion, with notable contributions from both state-owned and private enterprises in China [2] - Key players in the US, such as Helion and Commonwealth Fusion Systems, have also secured significant funding, indicating a competitive landscape [2] Section 3: Recommended Companies - The report suggests monitoring several companies involved in the nuclear fusion supply chain, including: - Lianchuang Optoelectronics, a leading supplier of high-temperature superconducting magnets - Yongding Co., a major supplier of high-temperature superconducting strips - Guoguang Electric, which provides various components for controllable nuclear fusion devices [3]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose for five consecutive days, increasing by 1.46% during the week ending July 25, 2025[10] - The Nikkei 225 index surged by 4.1% due to trade agreement progress between the US and Japan[10] - The Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices increased by 1.26% and 1.02%, respectively, during the same period[10] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims fell to 217,000, marking a decline for the sixth consecutive week, against an expected 226,000[4] - The probability of a US recession by 2025 is estimated at 17%, down from 18% the previous week[39] - The market anticipates a 64.5% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July or September, up from 52.9% a week prior[28] Commodity Prices - Gold and silver prices decreased by 0.61% and 0.55%, respectively, while WTI crude oil fell by 3.31%[11] - The market expects an increase in Venezuelan oil exports following the easing of sanctions, contributing to the decline in oil prices[10] Trade Agreements - The US reached a trade agreement with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff and a $550 billion investment from Japan[33] - The Philippines will impose a 19% tariff on US goods while opening its market to zero tariffs for US products[33] - Ongoing trade negotiations with the EU could lead to a counter-tariff on $93 billion worth of US goods if talks fail[33]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the real estate chain is showing signs of stabilization, with policies since 2025 continuing a loose tone that has been in place since 2024, suggesting a gradual bottoming out of the real estate fundamentals [1][34] - Cement demand is expected to decline at a slower rate in 2025, with industry awareness of price stability and profit protection increasing, indicating a potential profit turning point [1][34] - The consumption building materials sector is seeing an increase in the proportion of existing stock, with improved second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus expected to accelerate demand for renovations [1][3] Group 2 - Non-traditional building materials are experiencing higher overall demand, particularly in fiberglass, where downstream demand from wind power and thermoplastics remains strong, and competition is expected to ease [2][3] - The civil explosives sector is benefiting from increased investment in mining and water conservancy, leading to sustained demand growth, with major companies accelerating mergers and acquisitions [2][3] - Traditional refractory materials are facing weak downstream demand, but leading companies are expanding into new markets, such as magnesium salt chemicals and wet metallurgy, which are expected to contribute significantly to profits [2][3] Group 3 - The investment focus for traditional chains is on structural and supply aspects, while non-traditional chains are centered on downstream growth opportunities [3][4] - In the cement sector, supply-side reforms are accelerating, with a potential reduction in actual capacity to below 180 million tons in the medium to long term [3][4] - The consumption building materials sector is witnessing a price competition trend easing, with a focus on leading companies in the consumer market [3][4] Group 4 - The fiberglass segment is highlighted as a market focus, with significant demand expected for low dielectric and low expansion electronic fabrics, particularly in communication infrastructure and semiconductor packaging [4][3] - The civil explosives market in Xinjiang is projected to grow significantly, with existing demand estimated at 67.6 million tons, potentially reaching close to one million tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven demand in the photovoltaic glass sector, awaiting improvements in market conditions [4][3]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Views - The significant increase in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by supply contraction expectations and a rapid price correction due to regulatory actions against non-compliant mining practices [1] - Copper prices have shown a mixed performance, with market sentiment supporting price increases, but demand remains weak, limiting upward momentum [2][15] - Aluminum prices have risen due to external market influences and domestic production adjustments, although concerns about future demand in the photovoltaic sector persist [3][24] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases driven by heightened risk aversion amid global trade uncertainties [4][30] - Tungsten prices have increased across the board, supported by resource scarcity and cautious market activity [5][63] - The rare earth sector is experiencing a recovery in fundamentals, with significant price increases for light and heavy rare earth elements [6][41] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices have fluctuated, with a recent increase to 78,710 CNY/ton, but market demand remains weak, leading to cautious trading [2][15] - Aluminum: Prices rose to 20,630 CNY/ton, driven by external market trends and domestic production recovery, despite concerns in the photovoltaic sector [3][24] - Precious Metals: Gold averaged 780.69 CNY/gram, up 0.83%, and silver at 9,291 CNY/kg, up 2.02%, influenced by global trade tensions [4][30] Minor Metals - Lithium: Prices for lithium carbonate have stabilized, with market sentiment remaining cautious amid steady production [41][42] - Cobalt: Prices have increased slightly, but demand remains weak, leading to limited trading activity [43][44] - Tin: Prices have risen to 34,750 USD/ton, supported by supply-side reforms and low inventory levels [53][54] - Tungsten: Prices have increased due to resource scarcity, with black tungsten averaging 186,500 CNY/ton [5][63] - Molybdenum: Prices have shown a mixed trend, with recent increases due to supply disruptions and market optimism [68][69] Rare Earths - The rare earth market is witnessing a significant recovery, with prices for light rare earths like praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising to 514,000 CNY/ton [6][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - North - Exchange convertible bonds have certain special features in terms of clause settings and transfer transactions, with relatively low overall issuance scale. In the current policy environment encouraging mergers and acquisitions, private placement convertible bonds may become an important tool for North - Exchange listed companies to introduce strategic investors and be widely used as a payment instrument for M&A. With the slowdown of new supply of public convertible bonds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, continuous attention to North - Exchange related investment opportunities is recommended [2][13]. - Considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure of convertible bonds is expected to be low. As the stock market recovers, the return of incremental funds in convertible bonds drives the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. In terms of clauses, continue to focus on the space for lower - revision games, be vigilant against call risks, and appropriately focus on short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds. Industries to focus on include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises under the Chinese characteristic valuation system, and the military industry [16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1.转债周度专题与展望 3.1.1. 北交所转债怎么看？ - As of July 25, there were 5 convertible bond proposals on the North - Exchange. The current proposals are all private placement convertible bonds with an issuance scale within 150 million yuan. North - Exchange private placement convertible bonds usually do not have a "downward revision clause", suspend transfer 10 trading days before the end of the conversion period, have a clear 18 - month conversion restriction requirement, and a non - call period of at least 6 months [1][10]. - Taking the private placement convertible bonds of Youji Co., Ltd. as an example, it has obvious features in the initial conversion price, conditional call clause, non - downward revision clause, and put period. Other clauses are relatively conventional, with an issuance term of 6 years and a put trigger threshold of 70% [11][13]. 3.1.2. 周度回顾与市场展望 - This week, the three major stock indices fluctuated upward, with active trading and obvious rotation of hot sectors. The A - share market valuation is recovering. Measures such as large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement are expected to boost domestic demand, while export growth may decline. A weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market is expected to gradually start [14][15]. - In terms of convertible bonds, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure is expected to be low. As the stock market recovers, the return of incremental funds drives the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. Industries to focus on include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises under the Chinese characteristic valuation system, and the military industry [16]. 3.2. 转债市场周度跟踪 3.2.1. 权益市场收涨，建材煤炭钢铁领涨 - This week, the major equity market indices rose. The market style was more inclined to small - cap value stocks. Among the 27 Shenwan industry indices, 27 rose and 4 fell. Building materials, coal, and steel industries led the market [19][22]. 3.2.2. 转债市场大涨，百元溢价率中位数抬升 - This week, the convertible bond market rose. The average daily trading volume increased. Most industries in the convertible bond market rose, with coal, building materials, and petroleum and petrochemical industries leading the gains. Only bank convertible bonds fell. Most individual bonds rose. In terms of price, the number of absolute low - price convertible bonds decreased, and the median price increased significantly. The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased [24][31][36]. 3.2.3. 不同类型转债高频跟踪 3.2.3.1. 分类估值变化 - This week, the valuations of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds increased significantly, with a higher increase in balanced convertible bonds. The valuations of convertible bonds with a parity of 0 - 80 yuan and above 130 yuan decreased, while those of other parity convertible bonds increased. The valuations of most convertible bonds of each rating decreased, and the valuations of convertible bonds in each scale category decreased [51]. 3.2.3.2. 市场指数表现 - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. Since 2023, high - rating AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rating convertible bonds have shown weaker anti - decline attributes and greater rebound strength. Convertible bonds of all scales rose this week [62][64]. 3.3. 转债供给与条款跟踪 3.3.1. 本周一级预案发行 - Two new convertible bonds were listed this week, and one was issued but not yet listed. The first - day closing prices of Libo Convertible Bonds and Guanghe Convertible Bonds were 129.46 yuan and 129.80 yuan respectively, with reasonable pricing. The scale of the to - be - listed Bo 25 Convertible Bonds is 2.802 billion yuan. There were 9 first - level approvals this week [69]. 3.3.2. 下修&赎回条款 - This week, 9 convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revision, 9 announced no downward revision, 2 proposed downward revision, and 1 announced the downward - revision result. Thirteen convertible bonds were expected to trigger call, 4 announced no call, and 4 announced early call. As of the end of this week, 3 convertible bonds were still in the put declaration period, and 19 were in the company's capital reduction and settlement declaration period [73][77][79].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the long-term excess returns of the real estate index are correlated with trends in sales growth and price growth, indicating a cyclical nature in the market [2][7][10] - In the past year, the real estate index has shown a pulsing zigzag pattern characterized by short cycles, high volatility, and strong policy correlation, driven mainly by short-term stimulus policies rather than fundamental recovery [2][10][11] - The average excess return during the last six upward phases of the index reached 13%, with an average duration of 18 days, suggesting potential for new upward movements if positive signals are released from upcoming policy meetings [2][10][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the "anti-involution" theme, emphasizing the orderly exit of backward production capacity to achieve high-quality industry development, with a focus on sectors like steel, pig farming, and cement [30] - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to create opportunities in related sectors such as cement, steel materials, and hydropower equipment [33] - The AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) sector is projected to experience high growth driven by policy and demand resonance, with a target market scale exceeding 280 billion yuan by 2028, indicating strong investment potential in AI infrastructure [37][41]