固定收益 | 固定收益点评 美股新高，原油大跌 证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 29 日 海外经济跟踪周报 20250629 海外市场复盘（6.23-6.27） 本周海外主要股指普遍收涨。一是对伊朗以色列局势的担忧降温；二是因 为个别联储官员放鸽、特朗普喊话降息和降低油价，令年内降息预期从 2 次上升至 3 次；三是芯片和科技股发力；本周标普和纳指创新高，VIX 指 数下跌。 美元下跌、美债收益率下行。本周个别联储官员放鸽、特朗普喊话降息、 鲍威尔在国会听证会上继续强调观望但态度开始"端水"；油价大幅回调、 抹去以伊冲突以来的涨幅；周五公布 PCE 通胀超预期但超出的幅度有限， 年内降息预期从 2 次上升至 3 次，美元和美债下行。 油价和黄金下跌。中东局势担忧下降，特朗普强调降低油价，令油价在此 前连续 3 周收涨后本周大跌，抹去以伊冲突以来的涨幅。地缘冲突风险下 降、美国标普 PMI 等经济数据稳健、经济陷入衰退的概率下降，黄金回调。 海外央行动态 本周，美联储官员密集发声，立场不一。鸽派代表有美联储理事鲍曼，表 示可能支持 7 月降息；鹰派代表有哈玛克、博斯蒂克、柯林斯等。美联储 主席鲍威尔本周在 ...

- The report defines a timing system signal based on the distance between the long-term moving average (120 days) and the short-term moving average (20 days) of the Wind All A Index, which is currently at 1.76%, indicating the market is still in a consolidation pattern[1][3][9] - The industry allocation model recommends mid-term allocation to sectors experiencing a turnaround, such as Hong Kong innovative drugs, new consumption, and Hong Kong finance, with the trend still intact[2][3][10] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on military and communication sectors[2][3][10] - The Wind All A Index's PE ratio is at the 65th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB ratio is at the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level[2][10] - The position management model suggests a 50% allocation to absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index[2][10] Model Backtest Results - Timing system signal: Moving average distance 1.76%[1][3][9] - Industry allocation model: Mid-term recommendation for turnaround sectors, Hong Kong innovative drugs, new consumption, and Hong Kong finance[2][3][10] - TWO BETA model: Recommendation for technology sector, focus on military and communication[2][3][10] - Wind All A Index PE ratio: 65th percentile[2][10] - Wind All A Index PB ratio: 20th percentile[2][10] - Position management model: 50% allocation to absolute return products[2][10]

Market Insights - The small-cap crowding index has decreased from 65% to 62.4%, indicating a significant drop in market congestion, approaching levels seen in April 2025 [1][10] - Previous market adjustments occurred when the trading volume decreased alongside rising small-cap crowding, while the current market shows stable inventory levels [1][10] - The current trading volume has remained relatively low, averaging around 1.2 trillion, without signs of overheating during the recovery phase [1][11] Domestic Industry Analysis - In May, industrial enterprise profits reported a year-on-year decline of 9.10%, with cumulative profits from January to May down to -1.10% from a previous 1.40% [3][20] - The inventory of finished goods for large industrial enterprises stood at 6.65 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.50% [3][20] - The People's Bank of China indicated a need for moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery amid challenges like insufficient domestic demand [3][31] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE index rose by 2.68% year-on-year in May, slightly above expectations, indicating inflationary pressures [4][11] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: breakthroughs in AI technology, valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [5][11] - The consumer sector is expected to recover due to low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts, despite a cautious macro narrative [5][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "Everbright Convertible Bond" model reappears. The maturity repayment pressure of the "Pufa Convertible Bond" has decreased, and the allocation difficulty of bank convertible bonds has further increased. Mid - large - cap high - quality convertible bonds are expected to benefit from the spillover of "fixed income +" fund allocation demand [11]. - The current A - share market valuation is recovering. The domestic economic fundamentals and capital market may gradually start a weak resonance. Considering the influence of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure of convertible bonds is not expected to be high. However, as the stock market warms up, the inflow of incremental funds into convertible bonds drives the valuation to a historical high, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. In terms of terms, continue to pay attention to the downward revision game space, be vigilant against the forced redemption risk, and appropriately pay attention to the short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 3.1.1. The Reappearance of the "Everbright Convertible Bond" Model - Qilu Bank announced that the "Qilu Convertible Bond" is expected to trigger redemption. From June 24th to June 26th, Qilu Bank's stock price closed above the redemption price line for three consecutive days, only two trading days away from triggering redemption [10]. - As of June 25th, Xinfeng No. 1 single asset management plan under Cinda Securities increased its holdings of Pufa Bank's convertible bonds, and then transferred them to Cinda Investment on June 26th. On June 27th, the scale of the "Pufa Convertible Bond" decreased, and its conversion premium rate remained around 7%. Similar operations were carried out on the "Everbright Convertible Bond" before its maturity, which greatly alleviated the maturity repayment pressure. As of June 27th, the remaining scale of the Pufa Convertible Bond was 38.211 billion yuan, and its maturity repayment pressure decreased [11]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the market generally rose, with high trading enthusiasm. From Monday to Wednesday, most Shenwan industries rose, with the non - banking sector leading and the TMT and mid - stream manufacturing sectors having relatively high increases. On Thursday, the market had a narrow - range correction, and on Friday, it showed a volatile trend, with the banking sector leading the decline [12]. - In the stock market outlook, the current A - share market valuation is recovering. The rebound of export orders drove a narrow - range recovery of the May PMI. Policies such as large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in are expected to boost domestic demand, but the export growth rate may decline. For convertible bonds, the subsequent issuance pressure is not expected to be high. Pay attention to the risk of valuation correction, the downward revision game space, forced redemption risk, and short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds. Industries to focus on include hot topics, domestic demand directions, central state - owned enterprises represented by "central - headed" stocks, and the military industry [12][13]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. The Equity Market Rose, with TMT, Military, and Non - Banking Sectors Leading - This week, major equity market indices rose. The Wind All - A Index rose 3.56%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.91%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.69%. The market style was more inclined to small - cap value. Among small - cap indices, the CSI 1000 Index rose 4.62%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 3.17% [17]. - Twenty - eight Shenwan industry indices rose, and three industries declined. The computer, national defense and military, and non - banking finance industries led the market with increases of 7.70%, 6.90%, and 6.66% respectively. The petroleum and petrochemical, food and beverage, and transportation industries were among the top three decliners, with declines of 2.07%, 0.88%, and 0.24% respectively [19]. 3.2.2. The Convertible Bond Market Rose Significantly, and the Premium Rate of 100 - Yuan Par Value Increased Significantly - This week, the convertible bond market rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.08%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 1.94%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 2.30%. The Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 2.57%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index rose 2.03%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds decreased compared with last week [21]. - At the industry level, 29 convertible bond industries rose, with the communication, national defense and military, and automobile industries leading the gains with increases of 4.59%, 4.22%, and 3.54% respectively. The public utilities, banking, and food and beverage industries had relatively weak increases. Most individual convertible bonds rose. In terms of price, the number of low - priced convertible bonds decreased, and the median price of convertible bonds rose. The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased [27][33][35]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds increased significantly. Only the valuations of convertible bonds with a par value of 80 - 90 yuan decreased, while the valuations of other par - value convertible bonds increased. The valuations of AAA - rated convertible bonds increased, the conversion premium rates of A - and below - rated convertible bonds decreased significantly, and the valuations of other rated convertible bonds decreased slightly. The valuations of large - cap convertible bonds increased, while the valuations of convertible bonds in other scale brackets decreased [44]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. Since 2023, AAA convertible bonds have recorded a 17.14% return, AA + convertible bonds a 3.39% return, AA convertible bonds a 6.95% return, AA - convertible bonds a 14.45% return, A + convertible bonds a 17.04% return, and A - and below - rated convertible bonds a 22.36% return. Historically, high - rated AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker downside resistance and greater rebound strength [53]. - This week, convertible bonds of all scales rose. Since 2023, small - cap convertible bonds have recorded a 16.74% return, small - medium - cap convertible bonds a 16.09% return, medium - cap convertible bonds an 11.65% return, and large - cap convertible bonds a 12.43% return [55]. 3.3. Convertible Bond Supply and Terms Tracking 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - There were no newly listed convertible bonds this week, and the total amount of convertible bonds awaiting listing was 7.154 billion yuan. Among them, the Bo 25 Convertible Bond (with a scale of 2.802 billion yuan) was announced to be issued on July 1st, and there were 6 issued but unlisted convertible bonds. The number of primary approvals this week was 10. Kaizhong Co., Ltd. (308 million yuan) was approved for registration, and 4 convertible bonds were accepted by the exchange [58]. - From the beginning of 2023 to June 27, 2025, the total number of planned convertible bonds was 88, with a total scale of 143.652 billion yuan. Among them, 13 convertible bonds passed the board of directors' proposal with a total scale of 17.632 billion yuan; 42 convertible bonds passed the general meeting of shareholders with a total scale of 67.203 billion yuan; 25 convertible bonds were accepted by the exchange with a total scale of 46.437 billion yuan; 3 convertible bonds passed the review committee with a total scale of 26.20 billion yuan; and 5 convertible bonds were approved for registration by the CSRC with a total scale of 9.76 billion yuan [59]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - As of June 28, 2025, 14 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revision; 7 convertible bonds announced that they would not be downward - revised, among which Kewotong Convertible Bond, Tianjian Convertible Bond, and Weil Convertible Bond announced that they would not be downward - revised within 6 months; 1 convertible bond (Shanshi Convertible Bond) announced a proposed downward revision; 1 convertible bond (Jiangong Convertible Bond) announced the result of downward revision, with the downward revision reaching the bottom price [64][65]. - Five convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption; 2 convertible bonds announced that they would not be redeemed; 4 convertible bonds (Huafeng Convertible Bond, Guansheng Convertible Bond, Jinling Convertible Bond, and Chuanheng Convertible Bond) announced early redemption. As of the end of this week, there were 3 convertible bonds still in the put option declaration period and 24 convertible bonds still in the company's capital reduction repayment declaration period [68].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (first rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent capital injection aims to enhance the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios of major state-owned banks, with expected increases of 0.82, 0.45, 1.43, and 1.25 percentage points for China Bank, Construction Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and Transportation Bank respectively [2][7] - The average core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of the injected banks is projected to exceed the average of U.S. Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) [8][12] - The capital injection is expected to theoretically enable a credit expansion of 4.68 trillion yuan, although actual effects depend on credit supply and demand dynamics [10][11] Summary by Sections Capital Impact - The capital injection is expected to improve the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios of the banks involved, with the average ratio post-injection estimated at 14.26%, compared to 12.98% for U.S. G-SIBs [2][8] - The capital injection of 520 billion yuan could theoretically support an increase in loans up to 4.68 trillion yuan, but actual outcomes will depend on market conditions [10][11] Operational Impact - The injection is intended to provide additional funding support to mitigate financial risks faced by smaller banks, particularly rural commercial banks, which currently exhibit weaker non-performing loan ratios and provision coverage [3][12] - The liquidity situation is expected to improve following the capital injection, as indicated by recent trends in net financing and issuance of certificates of deposit [15] Investment Recommendations - The report expresses a favorable outlook on China Bank and Postal Savings Bank due to their current stock prices being below their issuance prices, indicating potential for price appreciation [19] - The capital injection is anticipated to positively influence future credit issuance for these banks, with respective increases in capital adequacy ratios of 0.82 and 1.43 percentage points [19]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 34.6 CNY per share, based on a reasonable PE valuation of 35 times for 2026 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading player in the BOPA film market, with plans to rapidly expand into other fields, leveraging its deep expertise in film products [3][12]. - The BOPA film market has shown rapid growth, with global demand increasing from 271,300 tons in 2016 to 494,000 tons in 2023, representing a CAGR of 8.91%. The Chinese market is even more dynamic, with a CAGR of 13.01% [2][24]. - The company aims to develop multiple champion products in the next five years that can compete with BOPA films, while also expanding into high-end emerging markets such as solid-state battery packaging materials and electronic components [1][12]. Summary by Sections Strategic Layout - The company focuses on becoming a high-end materials innovation enterprise, utilizing a multi-matrix, high-precision, and global strategy. It aims to create a sustainable development system covering the entire product lifecycle [12][14]. - The company has established an integrated industrial chain strategy for PA6 and functional BOPA films, positioning itself as a global leader with over 20% market share [13][32]. BOPA Film Market - The BOPA film market is experiencing significant growth, with the company holding a 20% global market share and a 36% share in China. The market potential remains large, as BOPA films only account for 1.9% of the total plastic film market [2][32]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with plans for new production lines to meet increasing demand, particularly in the food and healthcare sectors [23][28]. Financial Data and Projections - The company expects to achieve net profits of 1.4 billion CNY, 3.96 billion CNY, and 6 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Revenue is projected to grow from 2.35 billion CNY in 2023 to 4.86 billion CNY in 2027 [3][4]. - The EBITDA is forecasted to increase significantly, with a notable jump in 2026, reflecting the anticipated production capacity expansion [3][4]. Technological Advantages - The company possesses advanced production technologies, including magnetic suspension linear motor synchronous stretching technology, which enhances production efficiency and product quality [8][49]. - The company has a strong R&D pipeline, with increasing investment in new projects aimed at high-temperature nylon and composite materials, indicating a commitment to innovation [21][22]. Market Demand and Applications - BOPA films are widely used in food preservation and packaging due to their excellent mechanical properties and barrier performance. The demand for BOPA films is expected to grow, particularly in the lithium battery sector [23][36]. - The company is also focusing on new applications for BOPA films in the lithium battery market, which is projected to see significant growth in the coming years [38][39].

Report Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate as it awaits further confirmation of monetary policy. Subsequently, it is expected to break through the downward space and approach the low point. Although the liquidity in July may remain relatively loose, from the perspective of coordinating fiscal policies and managing market expectations, treasury bond trading may not necessarily occur during this window period. The amplitude and rhythm of the curve opening up space require reasonable assessment [35]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Suppression, Bond Market First Weak then Strong, Curve Slightly Steepened - This week (June 23 - June 27), the cross - quarter and the stock - bond "seesaw" were the main factors influencing the bond market. The stock market's strength in the first half of the week suppressed the bond market, but the central bank's increased liquidity injection and insurance replenishment provided some support. In the second half of the week, the bond market recovered as the stock - bond linkage effect weakened and the stock market declined, along with uncertain industrial enterprise profit data [1][8]. - On a daily basis, the bond market showed different trends each day. By June 27, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bonds changed by - 1, + 0.4, + 0.7, and + 1.2 BP respectively compared to June 20, and the curve steepened slightly. Most yields of major - term certificates of deposit (CDs) increased [8]. 2. Cross - quarter Overall Secure, Bank Liability - side Pressure Controllable - This week, the overall funding situation was stable, with increased fluctuations approaching the quarter - end. The 7 - day funding rate rose significantly, and the government bond issuance scale was large in the first half of the week. However, the central bank's intention to support was obvious, with reverse repurchase injections exceeding 2 trillion yuan. CD issuance rates fluctuated slightly, and large - bank lending remained stable around 4 trillion yuan, indicating that cross - quarter funds were generally secure and bank liability - side pressure was relatively controllable [2][13]. - The 7 - day funding rate center increased, and the DR001 still ran below the policy rate. As of June 27, the weekly averages of DR001 and R001 changed by - 0.53 and + 0.58 respectively compared to the previous week, while those of DR007 and R007 changed by + 12.75 and + 24.03 BP respectively. The phenomenon of funding stratification became more prominent, and the funding pressure on non - bank institutions increased during the cross - quarter period [13]. 3. The "Actions" and "Inactions" of Central Bank Monetary Policy - In June, market discussions about whether the central bank would restart treasury bond trading intensified. Since June, large banks' purchases of short - term treasury bonds (especially 1 - 3Y) increased year - on - year and month - on - month, which made the market more likely to associate this with the restart of treasury bond trading operations [19]. - The central bank suspended treasury bond purchases in 2025 mainly due to the improvement of the government bond supply - demand relationship and to avoid creating strong market expectations. After the market adjustment in the first quarter, an expert view in the Financial Times on April 13 suggested that the central bank might buy new treasury bonds in the secondary market if the interest - rate increase pressure from expansionary fiscal policies weakened policy effectiveness [3][25]. - In the first half of 2025, the bond market's funding situation was volatile. Monetary policy showed more characteristics of dynamic equilibrium and contingency decision - making among multiple goals. The central bank's shift from "restraint" to "support" in liquidity injection corresponded to the change in policy goal priority from "risk prevention" to "stable growth" [4][29]. - Currently, the central bank's "inactions" may include: improved flexibility and precision in liquidity regulation in 2025, with June smoothly passing multiple liquidity tests; large banks' purchases of short - term treasury bonds may not directly equal the central bank's purchases; the central bank is still concerned about bond market interest - rate risks; and the government bond supply pressure decreased in June, with the next peak likely in August - September. Therefore, treasury bond trading may not necessarily occur in July, and the market may fluctuate in the short term [30][35]. 4. Next Week's Focus - June 30: China's official manufacturing PMI for June, Eurozone's M1/M2/M3 for May, Germany's CPI for June. - July 1: Eurozone's CPI for June, US ISM manufacturing PMI for June. - July 2: US ADP employment for June. - July 3: US non - farm payrolls for June, US ISM non - manufacturing PMI for June. - July 4: EU PPI for May [38][39].

Group 1 - The ocean economy is a significant driver of GDP growth, with the national marine production value expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 7.8% of the GDP, and contributing 11.5% to economic growth [1][8] - The government has highlighted "deep-sea technology" in its reports, indicating its importance alongside commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, suggesting a rapid development potential in deep-sea equipment and exploration [1][8] - The deep-sea technology sector is identified as a key pillar for building a maritime power, encompassing three main areas: deep-sea materials, deep-sea equipment manufacturing, and deep-sea digital applications [3][17] Group 2 - Various provinces and cities are accelerating the development of marine economy, with policies focusing on high-end, intelligent, and green development, and establishing multi-level industrial systems [2][13] - Shanghai's marine industry development plan (2025-2035) proposes a "3+5+X" industrial system, while Guangdong's regulations emphasize support for eight emerging marine industry clusters [2][14] - The deep-sea materials sector is crucial for deep-sea technology, involving structural and buoyancy materials necessary for the development of marine resources, with a focus on high-performance steel, alloy materials, and composite materials [3][21] Group 3 - The deep-sea equipment sector is essential for supporting deep-sea development, facing challenges from complex underwater environments, with significant growth in China's shipbuilding industry, which saw a 13.8% increase in completed shipbuilding volume in 2024 [4][26] - The deep-sea digitalization and intelligence sector is a vital direction for deep-sea technology development, aiming to create a "digital ocean" that enhances marine decision-making and governance through advanced information technologies [5][17] - The report suggests focusing on marine engineering equipment manufacturing, marine equipment components, and marine observation instruments as key areas for investment [4][26]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [1] Core Insights - The nuclear fusion industry is experiencing significant capital injection, with Kunlun Capital receiving CNY 3.275 billion for controllable nuclear fusion projects, indicating a strong push towards the commercialization of nuclear fusion technology [2] - Shanghai Superconductor's IPO application has been accepted, aiming to raise CNY 1.2 billion to support fusion-related business development, highlighting the company's leading position in high-temperature superconducting materials [3] - The expansion of high-temperature superconducting materials production capacity is crucial for the nuclear fusion industry, as these materials are key components in magnetic confinement and current transmission [3] Summary by Sections Section: Capital Investment - Kunlun Capital's investment of CNY 3.275 billion will enhance its growth potential in the energy and chemical industries, supporting the transition to renewable energy [2] - The involvement of major players like China National Petroleum Corporation in funding nuclear fusion projects strengthens the financial backing for these initiatives [2] Section: IPO and Market Position - Shanghai Superconductor plans to raise CNY 1.2 billion through its IPO to expand its production of second-generation high-temperature superconducting materials, which are essential for nuclear fusion applications [3] - The company has established partnerships with global fusion companies and has achieved significant technological milestones, positioning itself as a core supplier in the nuclear fusion materials sector [3] Section: Industry Recommendations - Recommended companies to watch include: - Lianchuang Optoelectronics (leading supplier of high-temperature superconducting magnets) - Yongding Co., Ltd. (main supplier of high-temperature superconducting materials) - Guoguang Electric (providing various components for controllable nuclear fusion devices) [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector has shown resilience with a 3.66% increase, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.08 percentage points [1][39] - The cleanroom segment is expected to benefit from increased storage expansion and domestic production expectations, driven by AI demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) [2][16] - The semiconductor supply chain remains robust, with significant investments in HBM technology anticipated to double global revenue by 2025, reaching approximately $34 billion [14][16] Summary by Sections Storage Expansion and Cleanroom Opportunities - Domestic AI demand is driving growth in HBM, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 33% until 2030 [14] - Major investments include Micron's $7 billion in Singapore for advanced HBM packaging, set to begin operations in 2026 [2][16] - Cleanroom companies like Baicheng and Shenghui are seeing order growth, with Baicheng's new orders reaching 5.418 billion yuan in 2024, up 9.45% year-on-year [17][18] Market Performance Review - The construction index rose 3.66% from June 23 to June 27, with significant gains in sectors like architectural design and landscaping [39] - Notable stock performances include Hopu Co. (+33%) and Hangzhou Landscaping (+28%) [39] Investment Recommendations - Focus on cyclical opportunities in infrastructure, particularly in water conservancy, railways, and aviation projects, with a recommendation for companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge and Zhejiang Communications [44] - Emphasis on the nuclear power sector's high investment climate, recommending companies like Libat and China Nuclear Engineering [46] - Cleanroom segment investments are highlighted, with recommendations for Baicheng and Shenghui, and a focus on Yaxiang Integration due to its lower valuation compared to peers [20][46]