Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773) with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The "Tianli Qiming AI Learning Companion" model is the first AI model approved by the state for large-scale application in campus education, currently used in 107 schools with 250,000 teachers and students [1]. - The AI model integrates generative AI technology with educational research, creating a comprehensive ecosystem for teaching, learning, management, evaluation, and practice [1]. - The company plans to pilot an empathetic AI teacher by September and aims to build a digital education community in collaboration with hundreds of schools and enterprises over the next three years [1]. Summary by Sections AI Application in Education - The "Tianli Qiming AI Learning Companion" model is designed to enhance educational digital transformation and is supported by strategic partnerships with several leading schools [2]. - The model utilizes a localized knowledge graph and various AI tools to provide precise learning diagnostics, intelligent exam analysis, and dynamic path optimization [2]. Market Trends - 2025 is identified as a critical year for the full implementation of AI in education in China, driven by policy, technology, and capital [3]. - The Ministry of Education and other departments have issued guidelines to accelerate educational digitalization, emphasizing the construction of educational models and the integration of AI in educational scenarios [3]. Business Strategy - The introduction of the AI college entrance examination training camp is seen as a strategic entry point for AI application, addressing the rigid demand and high willingness to pay during critical learning phases [4]. - The company possesses a strong foundation of high-quality content and practical experience, along with a robust network of self-operated and managed schools, providing a significant market advantage [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenues of 4.32 billion RMB, 5.64 billion RMB, and 7.39 billion RMB for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively, with net profits projected at 780 million RMB, 1.02 billion RMB, and 1.35 billion RMB [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for King Long Automobile [7] Core Views - The integration of the three subsidiaries is expected to enhance procurement efficiency and improve the gross margin level, which has been relatively low compared to peers [2][48] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for buses in emerging markets and the increasing penetration of new energy buses globally [3][55] - The new management is anticipated to accelerate operational efficiency improvements, contributing to better financial performance [2][54] Summary by Sections Company Overview - King Long Automobile, established in 1988, has developed three core brands: King Long Buses, Jinlv Buses, and Haige Buses, and has faced challenges with low gross margins affecting performance [1][19] Financial Performance - The company has seen revenue growth since 2021, with 2024 revenue projected at 22.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%. However, the gross margin remains low at 10.2% compared to competitors [1][30] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.6 billion yuan, with a significant portion of this profit reliant on government subsidies [37] Strategic Developments - The integration of the three subsidiaries is expected to enhance gross margins significantly, with potential improvements if raw material costs decrease [2][50] - The appointment of a new chairman is expected to drive management reforms and operational efficiency [54] Market Outlook - King Long's products are exported to over 170 countries, with a strong growth trajectory in overseas sales, particularly in new energy buses [3][55] - The company is also focusing on autonomous driving technology, which could serve as a second growth engine [3][66] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 shows substantial growth, with expected figures of 3.78 billion, 6.86 billion, and 11.95 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 140%, 81%, and 74% [4][68] - The report suggests a target price of 15.83 yuan based on a projected valuation multiple of 9.5 times for 2027 [71]

行业比较专题 证券研究报告 "反内卷"行情的三阶段 核心结论：反内卷行情如果发展顺利，可能分为三阶段：第一阶段政策催化下 的预期（幅度可能较小），第二段定价资源品价格上涨，第三段定价资源品高 价横住的时间。目前投资者或预期类似 16-17 年供给侧改革带来的资源股行 情，但是目前行情尚在预期阶段，后续仍需观察政策落地和产能出清情况，如 果没有真实的出清，行情可能不会有后续两个阶段。 和反内卷类似，当年的供给侧改革也属于供给侧出清。我们认为，相比需求侧 驱动，供给侧驱动由于带有比较强的政策因素，市场调节机制相对弱化。因此， 供需趋紧的持续时间更长、预判难度较高。供给侧驱动的特征就导致股价行情 大概率是分阶段的。 复盘 16-17 年的供给侧改革行情，最典型的例子是煤炭的落后产能淘汰。我们 重点分析股价和煤价的关系，可以分为三阶段： 策略报告 | 投资策略 1）第一段是 2016 年 2 月供给侧结构性改革文件发布；尽管站在当时看历史 案例不多，但市场已有部分格局出清、煤价企稳预期，可以发现 16 年 2 月煤 炭板块相对沪深 300 有小幅超额行情。 2）第二段是 2016 年 6 月，当时煤价小幅上涨，但煤炭 ...

Group 1: Credit and Debt Settlement - Several provinces have reported specific amounts allocated for settling overdue enterprise payments, with Hunan and Yunnan allocating 200 billion and 356 billion respectively, while Guangxi and Shaanxi have also set aside significant amounts from their special bonds [1][18][19] - Various counties have reported on the scale of overdue payments, with notable repayments such as 20.59 billion in Guizhou's Tongren Dejiang County, and several counties achieving a "zero balance" on overdue payments [1][19][20] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The recent fluctuation in the price of Moutai has affected market sentiment, prompting leading brands to explore new consumption scenarios and target younger demographics [2][29] - The beer sector has seen a decline, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Yanjing Beer as consumption policies evolve [2][30] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with health products and baked goods showing growth, while traditional alcoholic beverages face challenges [2][28][31] Group 3: Internet Industry - The valuation of Chinese internet companies is considered attractive, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index showing significant valuation advantages [3][34] - The focus for 2025 is on the resurgence of growth and innovation within the Chinese internet sector, with companies like Tencent and Alibaba actively pursuing new business opportunities [3][34] - AI applications are expected to enhance the overall valuation of Chinese internet companies, with significant advancements in technology and business practices [3][34][35] Group 4: Emerging Industries - The approval of D-allohexose as a new food ingredient in China is expected to expand market demand, with companies like Baolong Chuangyuan and Bailingbao positioned to benefit from this development [9][10] - The global market for allohexose is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 33.26% from 2019 to 2023, indicating strong future potential [9][10] Group 5: Textile and Fashion Industry - Jin Hong Group is successfully leveraging IP licensing and cloud brocade to enhance its market presence, with significant revenue growth projected for the coming years [8][26] - The company is focusing on creating diverse consumer experiences through innovative retail strategies and collaborations with popular brands [8][24][25]

基金研究 | 基金专题报告 基金研究 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 04 日 作者 吴先兴 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110516120001 wuxianxing@tfzq.com 王喆 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110520060005 wangzhe@tfzq.com 相关报告 1 《金融工程：基金研究-新经济龙头 引擎：华商中证 A500 指数增强基金配 置价值深度解析》 2025-07-02 2 《金融工程：金融工程-哪些行业景 气度在上行？——细分行业景气度跟踪 -20250701》 2025-07-01 3 《金融工程：金融工程-量化择时周 报 ： 突 破 震 荡 上 轨 后 如 何 应 对 ?》 2025-06-29 基金经理海洋所管理的华商量化优质精选基金采用 "量化行业轮动+基本 面验证"框架，通过个股α、产业β及交易保护三维策略获取超额收益。2024 年接管以来年化收益 6.64%，跑赢 50%同类基金。 业绩归因显示基金对电子、汽车、有色金属的超配为基金贡献较高超额收 益，而对非银金融以及家用电器的低配也为组合贡献了一定的行业配置超 额收益。电子、计算机以及通信 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a decline in sentiment due to fluctuations in the price of Feitian Moutai, with leading companies actively exploring new consumption scenarios and demographics [2][13] - The health products, soft drinks, and snacks sectors are viewed positively due to high growth potential, low base effects, and upcoming peak seasons [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.88% from June 23 to June 27, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% [1][22] - Specific sector performances included health products (+3.65%), baked goods (+2.72%), and soft drinks (-0.58%) [1][22] Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor sector declined by 1.66%, attributed to seasonal demand weakness and price fluctuations of high-end products like Feitian Moutai [2][13] - Current prices for 25-year Moutai (original/scattered) are 1870 RMB/1800 RMB, down by 80 RMB/100 RMB from the previous week [2][13] - The Shunwan white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18X, which is considered low compared to the historical average [2][13] Health Products and Snacks - The health products sector is experiencing a growth trend, with a 3.65% increase this week, driven by new consumption trends [20] - The snack sector is expected to benefit from low base effects and new product launches, with companies like Three Squirrels and Salted Fish being highlighted [17][21] Soft Drinks and Beer - The soft drink sector saw a slight decline of 0.6%, with notable performances from brands like Master Kong (+5.4%) and Nongfu Spring (+5.3%) [4][15] - The beer sector declined by 1.9%, but there is optimism for recovery with upcoming consumption policies [4][15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on strong alpha companies in the liquor sector such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from market consolidation [4][21] - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies are recommended, including Li Gao Foods and Nongfu Spring [4][21]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that the Hong Kong market, particularly the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index, shows significant valuation advantages, with a TTM P/E ratio of 10.68 and a dividend yield of 3.93% as of July 1, 2025, indicating attractive investment opportunities [3][18]. - The report emphasizes that China's AI capabilities are becoming globally competitive, with domestic internet companies expected to narrow the gap with leading global firms, particularly in AI technology, which is not yet fully reflected in current valuations [4][19]. - The gaming industry is experiencing a positive trend with a 17.99% year-on-year increase in actual sales revenue in Q1 2025, supported by a stable policy environment and a growing number of game approvals [5]. - The advertising industry is facing a slowdown in growth due to macroeconomic fluctuations, but certain companies are still outperforming the market through improved advertising efficiency and AI-driven innovations [6]. - The local lifestyle sector is exploring new growth avenues through flash sales and international expansion, with significant cost savings anticipated from the adoption of unmanned delivery systems [7]. - The e-commerce sector is characterized by intense competition but is expected to stabilize as platforms return to their core strengths, with a focus on rational consumer spending and promotional activities [8]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The gaming industry is projected to maintain high single-digit growth in revenue, supported by a solid supply foundation from increased game approvals and improving consumer sentiment [5]. - The advertising sector is expected to benefit from AI technologies that enhance targeting and return on ad spend (ROAS), potentially leading to increased revenue despite overall industry growth slowing [6]. - The local lifestyle market is anticipated to grow significantly, particularly in the Middle East, with a projected market size increase to $2.77 billion by 2028, driven by high mobile internet penetration and favorable demographics [7]. - The e-commerce industry is expected to see a gradual increase in online penetration rates, with platforms focusing on high-demand products and improving service quality to enhance user experience [8]. - The report notes that the overall capital expenditure (Capex) among major Chinese internet companies is likely to increase, reflecting a commitment to AI and cloud infrastructure investments [65][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Since May 2025, multiple provinces have adjusted their fiscal budgets this year, and some have disclosed the latest adjusted budget plans, including the situation of clearing overdue payments to enterprises. The report sorts out the progress of clearing overdue payments at the provincial, municipal, and district - county levels [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Provincial - Level Clearing Progress - Four provinces (Guangxi, Hunan, Yunnan, and Shaanxi) have disclosed details about clearing overdue payments to enterprises. Hunan and Yunnan earmarked 20 billion and 35.6 billion yuan respectively; Guangxi will use part of its 36.5 - billion - yuan special bond quota, and Shaanxi will use part of its 50.1 - billion - yuan special bond for this purpose. Shaanxi has also cleared all overdue payments within the ledger [1][9]. 3.2 Municipal - Level Clearing Progress - **Specific Repayment Scale**: In 2024, cities like Qionghai, Wenchang, Wanning in Hainan and Yangquan in Shanxi cleared 745 million, 300 million, 220 million, and 8.07 million yuan of government - owed enterprise payments respectively. Gannan Prefecture in Gansu allocated 520.74 million yuan in government bonds in 2025 for this purpose [2][11]. - **Clearing of Ledger - based Overdue Payments**: Cities such as Ulanqab in Inner Mongolia, Zhongwei in Ningxia, the whole of Shaanxi Province, and Zhaotong in Yunnan have cleared all overdue payments within the ledger. Mianyang in Sichuan completed the "provincial ledger" clearing of 2024 overdue payments [2][11]. - **Bonds Available but No Specific Repayment Amount**: Some cities like Chongzuo, Fangchenggang, etc. in Guangxi, Anshun in Guizhou, Zhangjiakou in Hebei, and Datong, Tongchuan in Shanxi can use refinancing or special bonds to clear overdue payments, but the actual repayment amount is not disclosed [2][11]. 3.3 District - County - Level Clearing Progress - **Specific Repayment Scale**: Many districts and counties have reported specific repayment amounts. For example, Dejiang County in Guizhou repaid 2.059 billion yuan, followed by Gushi County in Henan, Yongning County in Ningxia, and Zhaoyang District in Yunnan with 1.23 billion, 1.145 billion, and 815 million yuan respectively. Most payments are to small and medium - sized or private enterprises. The funds come from various sources, such as bank loans and bond funds [3][15]. - **Clearing of Ledger - based Overdue Payments**: Districts and counties in Guizhou, Sichuan, and Shaanxi, such as Bijiang District and Jiangkou County in Guizhou, Chuanshan District in Sichuan, and some districts and counties in Shaanxi, have cleared all overdue payments within the ledger [3][15]. - **Bonds Available but No Specific Repayment Amount**: Some districts and counties like Lingyun County in Guangxi, Qixing District in Guangxi, Xifeng County in Guizhou, Guancheng District in Henan, and Dongli District in Tianjin can use refinancing or special bonds, but the actual repayment amount is not disclosed [4][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company is experiencing significant growth in its IP licensing and cloud brocade business, with IP licensing revenue expected to reach 33.56 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 88%, and a gross margin of 99%. The cloud brocade business is projected to generate 81.37 million yuan, reflecting a 64% year-on-year growth with a gross margin of 75% [2][4] - The company is successfully integrating its IP with consumer experiences, enhancing brand value through innovative retail formats and online engagement strategies, such as live streaming events that attract over 250,000 viewers [2][3] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts, expecting revenues of 4.6 billion yuan, 4.9 billion yuan, and 5.2 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 360 million yuan, 430 million yuan, and 490 million yuan [4][10] Summary by Sections Business Development - The company is set to open a flagship store in Suzhou in April 2025, featuring six themed areas that blend classic and modern aesthetics [1] - The cloud brocade, recognized as the pinnacle of Chinese silk weaving, is being commercialized through high-end art products, fashion accessories, and cultural creative items, with an average of 30 new SKUs launched monthly [3] Financial Performance - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027, now estimating revenues of 46 billion yuan, 49 billion yuan, and 52 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 3.6 billion yuan, 4.3 billion yuan, and 5.0 billion yuan [4][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.03 yuan, 1.24 yuan, and 1.44 yuan for the same period [4] Market Position - The company is positioned in the textile and apparel industry, focusing on innovative retail strategies and leveraging its IP assets to enhance consumer engagement and brand loyalty [6][2]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the stock-bond allocation value is near historical extremes, with the overall A-share index PE valuation at 19.9, indicating a potential upward space in the market [1][17] - Market trading indicators show improvement in turnover rate and transaction volume, suggesting a gradual increase in market trading sentiment, while individual stock trends indicate a rise in stocks above the 50-week moving average [1][17] - Investor behavior indicates a narrowing of buyback scale and an increase in industrial capital reduction, with overall funding indicators showing signs of recovery [1][17] Group 2 - The semiconductor storage sector is expected to see continuous price increases in Q3 and Q4, driven by AI server and device upgrades, with high-value products like HBM and eSSD gaining market share [2][29] - The report notes significant price increases for DRAM and NAND Flash products, with PC DDR4 prices expected to rise by 18-23% and enterprise SSD orders increasing significantly [2][30] - AI penetration is projected to drive demand for storage, with expectations of a 427% increase in LPDDR5X demand due to AI mobile applications [2][31] Group 3 - D-Alulose has been approved as a new food ingredient in China, marking a significant opportunity for companies involved in its production, with the global market expected to grow to $545 million by 2030 [3][26] - Companies like Zhong Grain Technology are leading in the enzyme production of D-Alulose, with plans for capacity expansion and significant revenue growth [5][27] - The report recommends companies such as Baolong and Bailong Chuangyuan, which are expanding their production capacities and have established market presence [5][28] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for cleanroom systems in the semiconductor industry, with significant orders expected from Singapore and other Southeast Asian markets [8][22] - The semiconductor industry is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted 11.8% and 11.2% revenue growth in 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by AI demand [12][23] - Companies like Yaxiang Integration are positioned to benefit from this growth, with a strong order pipeline and competitive advantages in the cleanroom sector [8][22]