Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector has shown resilience with a 3.66% increase, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.08 percentage points [1][39] - The cleanroom segment is expected to benefit from increased storage expansion and domestic production expectations, driven by AI demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) [2][16] - The semiconductor supply chain remains robust, with significant investments in HBM technology anticipated to double global revenue by 2025, reaching approximately $34 billion [14][16] Summary by Sections Storage Expansion and Cleanroom Opportunities - Domestic AI demand is driving growth in HBM, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 33% until 2030 [14] - Major investments include Micron's $7 billion in Singapore for advanced HBM packaging, set to begin operations in 2026 [2][16] - Cleanroom companies like Baicheng and Shenghui are seeing order growth, with Baicheng's new orders reaching 5.418 billion yuan in 2024, up 9.45% year-on-year [17][18] Market Performance Review - The construction index rose 3.66% from June 23 to June 27, with significant gains in sectors like architectural design and landscaping [39] - Notable stock performances include Hopu Co. (+33%) and Hangzhou Landscaping (+28%) [39] Investment Recommendations - Focus on cyclical opportunities in infrastructure, particularly in water conservancy, railways, and aviation projects, with a recommendation for companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge and Zhejiang Communications [44] - Emphasis on the nuclear power sector's high investment climate, recommending companies like Libat and China Nuclear Engineering [46] - Cleanroom segment investments are highlighted, with recommendations for Baicheng and Shenghui, and a focus on Yaxiang Integration due to its lower valuation compared to peers [20][46]

Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The Shanghai Stock Exchange released new guidelines for public REITs expansion, which includes three methods: issuance to specific objects, allocation to existing fund holders, and public fundraising [1][7] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that the non-directional expansion function for REITs will officially start on June 30, allowing fund managers to handle various expansion-related tasks [1][7] Group 2: Primary Market - As of June 28, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 177.1 billion, with 68 funds issued [8][10] Group 3: Market Performance - For the week of June 23-27, 2025, the CSI REITs total return index fell by 1.38%, while the total REITs index decreased by 1.99% [2][18] - The total REITs index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.94 percentage points and the CSI All Bond index by 1.93 percentage points, but slightly outperformed the Nanhua Commodity index by 0.01 percentage points [2][18] - Individual REITs such as Zhongjin Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT, Zhongjin China Green Development Commercial REIT, and AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT led the gains with increases of 43.01%, 30.00%, and 0.95% respectively [2][18] Group 4: Liquidity - The total trading activity of REITs increased, with a total trading volume (MA5) of 579 million, up 1.8% from the previous week [3][37] - The MA5 trading volumes for property and operating rights were 325 million and 249 million respectively, with changes of 2.3% and -0.9% [3][37] - The largest trading volume among REIT types was in transportation infrastructure, accounting for 25.9% of total trading [3][37] Group 5: Valuation - The report includes various valuation metrics and trends for REITs, indicating ongoing assessments of their market positions and performance [42]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Hold" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company is experiencing structural improvements in its main business, with significant growth in revenue driven by the transition from traditional body control modules to body zone controllers (ZCU) and the addition of new clients in the smart vehicle sector [1][3]. - The reduction in R&D expenses and capital expenditures, alongside increased revenue scale, is identified as a key factor for the company's profitability turning point [2][29]. - Future growth points are anticipated in the body domain and intelligent driving domain, with the company positioned well in the ZCU market and achieving significant market share in the ADAS sector [3][41]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been a leading automotive electronics manufacturer in China since its establishment in 2003, focusing on automotive software and electronic systems [14]. - The ownership structure is stable, with a significant portion held by the founder, ensuring strategic continuity [17]. Customer Structure - The company has optimized its customer base, now including both traditional OEMs and emerging players like Xiaomi and Xpeng, enhancing its market position [21]. Financial Analysis - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 69.97 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.27% [4][52]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 21.85% in 2025, with improvements anticipated as the company scales its operations [50]. Product Development and Market Position - The transition from distributed body control modules to integrated ZCU systems is expected to enhance revenue potential due to increased value per vehicle [35][36]. - The company has successfully penetrated the ADAS market, achieving a market share of over 10% in Q1 2025, positioning it as a leading domestic Tier 1 supplier [41][42]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.17 billion yuan in 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to rise to 0.15 yuan [4][52]. - The report highlights that the company's profitability is under pressure due to high R&D investments, but these are expected to yield returns as the business grows [27][33].

固定收益 | 固定收益定期固定收益定期 流动性跟踪 证券研究报告 跨季后资金面有哪些关注点？ 1、资金面聚焦：跨季后资金面有哪些关注点？ 本周资金面整体平稳，临近跨季波动有所增加，7 天资金利率大幅上行， 上半周政府债发行规模较大。但央行呵护意图较为明显，全周逆回购投放 超 2 万亿元，存单发行利率低波震荡、小幅上行，跨季资金整体无虞。 下周，政府债发行规模回落至 721 亿元。其中，无国债发行，地方债发行 721 亿元、净缴款 742 亿元，供给压力明显缓和。 4、货币市场：本周 7 天资金利率大幅上行 资金利率多数上行：截至 6/27，DR001 下行 0.59BP 至 1.37%，DR007 上行 20.27BP 至 1.7%，R001 上行 1.22BP 至 1.46%，R007 上行 32.91BP 至 1.92%。 本周，银行体系资金净融出平均 3.86 万亿元，较上周变动-1067 亿元。其 中，国有大行净融出平均 3.98 万亿元，较上周变动-3931 亿元，隔夜占比 90%，较上周变动-7.39%。 5、同业存单 本周，同业存单发行总额为 7264 亿元，净融资额为-3827 亿元，相较上周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 78.01 HKD per share, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company has approved a stock option plan and a restricted share unit plan, which will be subject to shareholder approval. A total of 6.985 million stock options and restricted share units have been conditionally granted to 279 participants, including 75,000 each to the CEO [1][2]. - The HLX43 PD-L1 ADC has completed dosing in an international Phase II clinical trial, marking it as the first PD-L1 ADC to enter this stage globally. Initial Phase I data showed promising safety and efficacy results in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 5.873 billion, 5.970 billion, and 7.125 billion HKD for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 2.60%, 1.64%, and 19.36% respectively. Net profits attributable to shareholders are expected to be 827 million, 797 million, and 1.122 billion HKD for the same years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation in the current week, covering aspects such as demand, production, investment, trade, prices, and interest - rate bonds. It shows that the real - estate market is still at a low level, while the automotive consumption is warming up. Industrial production is stable, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong. Trade shows an upward trend, but prices of some commodities are falling. The issuance of interest - rate bonds has a certain progress [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Demand: New home sales decline year - on - year, while automotive consumption continues to recover - New home sales: The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 20 cities increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, far below the seasonal level. High - tier cities saw a narrowing decline in new home sales year - on - year, while low - tier cities had a larger decline. The sales area of second - hand housing in key cities mostly decreased week - on - week [1][11][27]. - Consumption: The daily average retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars increased significantly week - on - week. Movie consumption was below the seasonal level, and travel performance was divided. The national migration scale index decreased week - on - week, while the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities recovered [1]. 3.2 Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong - Mid - and upstream: The blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan remained basically flat, the rebar operating rate increased, the PTA operating rate decreased week - on - week, and the operating rates of polyester filament and petroleum asphalt plants increased week - on - week, indicating a possible marginal improvement in infrastructure construction starts [2][44]. - Downstream: The operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles continued to rise, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly week - on - week. The absolute value of semi - steel tires was still higher than the same period in previous years. The trade - in subsidy policy may support the production side in the short term [2][44]. 3.3 Investment: The apparent consumption of rebar recovers, and cement prices decline The apparent consumption of rebar improved, and its price decreased week - on - week. The cement shipping rate decreased, the cement storage capacity ratio increased, and the cement price declined [3][59]. 3.4 Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices continue to rise - Export: The container throughput of ports increased, and the CCFI composite index rebounded week - on - week. Freight rates on European routes increased, those on the US West Coast routes decreased, and those on Southeast Asian routes remained basically flat. In addition, the BDI index also declined [4][71]. - Import: Container shipping prices increased, and the CICFI composite index rose slightly by 1.2% week - on - week [4][71]. 3.5 Prices: Agricultural product prices are weak, and international crude oil prices decline - CPI: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices dropped by 0.2% week - on - week. Pork and fruit prices decreased, while egg and vegetable prices rebounded slightly [5][82]. - PPI: Commodity and metal price indices declined. The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, Brent crude oil spot price dropped by 8.2% week - on - week, COMEX gold futures price decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and LME copper spot price increased by 1.8% week - on - week [5][90]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year reaches 90% - Next week (June 30 - July 4), the disclosed issuance of interest - rate bonds is 97.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 39.5 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 80.2 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds is 72.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of 21.7 billion yuan [6][101]. - As of June 27, the issuance scale of replacement bonds this year is 1.7959 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 89.8%; the issuance of new general bonds is 445.4 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 55.7%; the issuance of new special bonds is 2.1127 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 48.0% [6]. - 29 provinces and municipalities directly under the central government have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total planned issuance scale of 2.5868 trillion yuan [6][112]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation: The central bank's second - quarter regular meeting emphasizes flexible policy implementation - On June 24, the Ministry of Finance stated that the final accounts were generally good and would implement a more proactive fiscal policy [114]. - On June 23, the central bank's policy committee held its second - quarter regular meeting in 2025, suggesting to increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation and flexibly control the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [115]. - On June 24, six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" [116]. - On June 25 (local time), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates [117]. - On June 25, Guangdong Province implemented policies on off - site provident fund loans and withdrawals for off - site house purchases [118]. - On June 26, Qingdao City optimized and adjusted its housing provident fund loan policy [119].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Davis Double Hit Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at a low P/E ratio and selling them after the growth materializes and the P/E ratio increases, achieving a "double hit" effect through EPS growth and P/E expansion[7] - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify stocks with accelerating earnings growth - Evaluate the reasonableness of stock pricing using the PEG indicator, which considers both P/E and growth rate[7] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrated strong stability, with annual excess returns exceeding 11% in all seven years of the backtest period from 2010 to 2017[8] 2. Model Name: Net Profit Gap Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy combines fundamental and technical analysis, focusing on two key aspects: - "Net profit" refers to earnings surprises, typically exceeding market expectations - "Gap" refers to a significant upward price gap on the first trading day after the earnings announcement, reflecting market recognition and sentiment[11] - **Model Construction Process**: - Select stocks with earnings surprises based on earnings forecasts and financial reports from the past two months - Rank stocks by the magnitude of the price gap on the earnings announcement day - Construct an equal-weight portfolio of the top 50 stocks[11] 3. Model Name: CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on investor preferences, categorized into GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value styles[16] - GARP investors focus on companies with strong profitability and stable growth potential at relatively low prices - Growth investors prioritize high-growth companies based on revenue, gross profit, and net profit growth - Value investors prefer companies with high and stable ROE over the long term[16] - **Model Construction Process**: - Construct the PBROE factor using the difference in percentiles between PB and ROE to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability - Construct the PEG factor using the difference in percentiles between P/E and growth rate to find undervalued stocks with reliable growth potential[16] --- Backtest Results of Models 1. Davis Double Hit Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 26.45% (2010-2017)[8] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 21.08% (2010-2017)[8] - **YTD Absolute Return**: 16.55%[8] - **YTD Excess Return**: 14.14% (relative to CSI 500 Index)[8] - **Weekly Excess Return**: -0.15% (relative to CSI 500 Index)[8] - **Current Period Excess Return**: 1.75% (2025-05-06 to 2025-06-27)[8] 2. Net Profit Gap Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 29.21% (2010-present)[14] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 27.45% (2010-present)[14] - **YTD Absolute Return**: 27.39%[14] - **YTD Excess Return**: 24.98%[14] - **Weekly Excess Return**: 3.24%[14] 3. CSI 300 Enhanced Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: 9.75% (full sample period)[18] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 9.13% (full sample period)[18] - **YTD Absolute Return**: 12.90%[20] - **YTD Excess Return**: 13.23% (relative to CSI 300 Index)[20] - **Weekly Excess Return**: -0.10%[20] - **Monthly Excess Return**: 2.40%[20]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for COFCO Technology with a target price of 6.8 CNY, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.2 for 2025 [5][3]. Core Views - COFCO Technology is a leading player in the domestic corn deep processing industry, with its dividend value becoming more prominent as performance improves. The company has a strong cost control capability, which has allowed it to turn a profit in 2024 despite low corn prices [1][3]. - The company is focusing on sustainable business models centered around biotechnology, with significant developments in bioenergy, fermentation products, and biodegradable materials [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - COFCO Technology, controlled by COFCO Group, has established a comprehensive corn processing industry layout covering food, food ingredients, bioenergy, and biodegradable materials. It is recognized as a leading corn deep processing enterprise in terms of scale and technology [1][13]. Main Business Segments 1. **Bioenergy**: - The company is a leader in fuel ethanol production with a capacity of 1.35 million tons, accounting for 23% of the national total. The industry is currently experiencing a slowdown, prompting the company to diversify into high-end alcohol and carbon dioxide utilization [2][31]. 2. **Fermentation Products & Starch Raw Materials**: - COFCO Technology is a leading producer of starch sugars, focusing on products like fructose syrup and maltodextrin. The company plans to expand its production capacity significantly by 2025 [2][46]. 3. **Biodegradable Materials**: - The main product is polylactic acid (PLA), with applications in packaging and agriculture. The company is advancing its biodegradable materials business through subsidiaries and plans to enhance its production capabilities [2][72]. Financial Forecast & Valuation Analysis - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 20.62 billion, 21.25 billion, and 22.97 billion CNY, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.02 million, 1.64 million, and 2.34 million CNY for the same period [3][4]. - The report highlights the company's strong recovery in profitability, with a net profit of over 40 million CNY in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 63.17% [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for COFCO Technology to explore sustainable development models centered on biotechnology, which could enhance its dividend value as performance improves [3][5].

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Small Market Cap - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor captures the size effect, where smaller market capitalization stocks tend to outperform larger ones over time [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated as the logarithm of the market capitalization of a stock [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrated strong performance in recent periods, particularly over the past week, month, and year [8][10] 2. Factor Name: Beta - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market returns, capturing systematic risk [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: Beta is calculated as the regression coefficient of a stock's returns against market returns over the past 490 trading days [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor showed strong performance in recent periods, particularly over the past week and month [8][10] 3. Factor Name: 1-Month Specificity - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the idiosyncratic component of stock returns, independent of systematic factors [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: It is calculated as \( 1 - R^2 \), where \( R^2 \) is derived from regressing daily stock returns against the Fama-French three-factor model over the past 20 trading days [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor exhibited strong performance in the past week, month, and year [8][10] 4. Factor Name: 1-Month Reversal - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor captures the short-term reversal effect, where stocks with poor recent performance tend to rebound [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: It is calculated as the cumulative return of a stock over the past 20 trading days [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor performed well over the past year [8][10] 5. Factor Name: Fama-French 1-Month Residual Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the residual volatility of stock returns after accounting for systematic factors [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: It is calculated as the standard deviation of residuals from regressing daily stock returns against the Fama-French three-factor model over the past 20 trading days [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrated strong performance over the past year [8][10] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Small Market Cap - **IC Performance**: Weekly IC: 15.09%, Monthly IC: 6.09%, Yearly IC: 3.61%, Historical IC: 2.20% [9] - **Excess Return Performance**: Weekly: 1.67%, Monthly: 2.75%, Yearly: 18.13%, Historical Cumulative: 66.36% [11] 2. Beta - **IC Performance**: Weekly IC: 13.20%, Monthly IC: 5.67%, Yearly IC: 1.79%, Historical IC: 0.38% [9] - **Excess Return Performance**: Weekly: 1.85%, Monthly: 2.84%, Yearly: 9.25%, Historical Cumulative: -8.52% [11] 3. 1-Month Specificity - **IC Performance**: Weekly IC: 11.75%, Monthly IC: 6.36%, Yearly IC: 3.19%, Historical IC: 2.40% [9] - **Excess Return Performance**: Weekly: 1.38%, Monthly: 1.99%, Yearly: 9.59%, Historical Cumulative: 16.77% [11] 4. 1-Month Reversal - **IC Performance**: Weekly IC: 9.55%, Monthly IC: 3.46%, Yearly IC: 3.54%, Historical IC: 2.23% [9] - **Excess Return Performance**: Weekly: 1.25%, Monthly: 0.32%, Yearly: 4.73%, Historical Cumulative: -0.81% [11] 5. Fama-French 1-Month Residual Volatility - **IC Performance**: Weekly IC: 4.67%, Monthly IC: 5.09%, Yearly IC: 3.37%, Historical IC: 2.54% [9] - **Excess Return Performance**: Weekly: 0.44%, Monthly: 1.59%, Yearly: 9.67%, Historical Cumulative: 19.58% [11]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 2025 年 06 月 27 日 作者 谭逸鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 唐海清 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517030002 tanghaiqing@tfzq.com 裴明楠 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525060004 peimingnan@tfzq.com 近期报告 1 《固定收益：信用主体骑乘库一览- 信用策略系列》 2025-06-26 美国经济观察 美国到"衰退"门槛还有多远？ 从 NBER 六大指标看，美国经济尚无"衰退"信号。今年 3 月以来，市场 持续下调美国经济增速预期，美国一季度 GDP 增速下修至-0.5%。美国经 济是否真的被"透支"空了呢？ NBER 采用 6 个底层指标判定"经济衰退 期"，截至今年 4 月，仅有 1 项指标进入明确下行趋势，4 项处于波动，1 项仍在上行趋势。 一季度美国 GDP 负增长是"技术性"现象。一季度美国 GDP 修正值-0.5% （季调环比折年率，下同），主因企业在关税前囤货，贸易逆差大增，"净 出口"拖累 GDP 增速 4 ...