未来一段时间，我们认为美国关税体系大概率呈现"三层并行"格局：一是 Section 122 临时普遍性附加税作为短期兜底工具；二是 Section 232（国家 安全）和 Section 301（不公平贸易）作为中期、定向、可滚动强化的主渠道； 三是国会立法层面的关税、产业补贴、税收激励与供应链约束政策形成配套。 相关公开信息显示，Section 301 现有对华调查与执行框架仍在运行，US TR 官网仍保留中国相关 301 页面与调查入口；同时，Section 232 调查和措施仍 是白宫及商务部可持续动用的重要权限。 对中国而言，短期冲击主要体现在外需预期波动、行业利润压缩与订单再分配 节奏扰动，而非"全面失去竞争力"。在美国对多国同时提高普遍性关税税率 的情形下，中国面临的压力并非孤立上升，部分行业相对竞争地位甚至可能阶 段性改善，尤其是在供应链完整性、交付稳定性与成本效率仍具优势的领域， 比较优势进一步凸显，因此我们认为整体会利好国内制造业。但对已被 301、 232 或行业专项措施持续覆盖的品类而言，中国出口仍将承受更高政策风险溢 价，企业经营重心将进一步转向"区域化产能布局+原产地管理+产品升级+ ...

[Table_Main] 有色月跟踪：美国关键矿产战略持续演 进，关注重点品种价值重估 报告要点 美国关键矿产战略历经四个阶段演进，目标扩展至全产业链控制。美国关键 矿产战略历经 2008-2017 年风险识别萌芽期、2017-2021 年"美国优先" 本 土化启动期、2021-2025 年"盟友协同"深化期，2025 年起进入全产业链条 控制的激进扩张期，战略强度持续升级。总结而言，美国关键矿产战略发展至 今，其特征包括战略导向明确、政企协同发力、覆盖全产业链、联盟化特征显 著、政策工具灵活。 美国关键矿产储备项目（Project Vault，金库项目）是一项结合国家政策、 金融和市场手段的系统性设计, 不应仅理解为供应缓冲，而是重塑其供应体 系的关键一环。通过金库项目整合政府、贸易商、矿企及制造企业，以 16.7 亿美元私人资本以及 100 亿进出口银行贷款为支撑，提供关税豁免、价格底 线保障等政策支持，发挥的作用不仅在于稳定价格，也衔接了上下游供需，并 发出矿产投资的信号。 美国通过金库项目构建联动各方的行动框架，指引矿产项目投资，并以国家 资本撬动私人资本跟进。美国已计划投入超 300 亿美元资助矿山 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 美欧经济回暖，地缘局势升温 报告摘要 海外宏观：美欧经济回暖。全球制造业温和扩张。景气度连续六个月保持在荣 枯线以上。欧元区各国的财政扩张政策对制造业的拉动作用开始显现，尤其是 德国国防和基建支出对制造业的拉动力很强。美国 1 月就业市场表现强劲，消 费者信心也与就业市场同步回升，显示出居民部门的预期有所改善。 国内宏观：春节假期消费稳定增长。国内出游总消费较去年大幅增长，不过考 虑到今年假期为 9 天，而以往年份春节假期为 8 天，按照日均消费计算，则 增速为 5.5%，增长较为平稳。假期延长对于居民消费的促进作用较为明显， 有助于内需的释放。通胀温和抬升。制造业产业链补库存以及"反内卷"相关 政策对于物价的推动作用正在显现。如果这一趋势能够持续，则有望促进经济 更大范围的回暖。 登记编码：S0950523100001 ：13817489814 ：youchunye1@wkzq.com.cn 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 1 / 7 政策：外部"地缘+关税"再抬头，国内以"稳流动性+促兑现"为主线。1月 以来，外部环境的主线从年末的"降温"转向"风险议题再抬头"，但整体仍 ...

[Table_Main] 电车需求跟踪（2 月）：产品力推动单 车带电量显著提升 报告要点 月度关注：2 月受政策退坡及春节影响，我们预计国内零售持续同环比下滑， 3 月随着以旧换新申请通道畅通及新产品密集上市，市场逐步回暖。 2 月春节休假+消费者观望情绪对销量产生负面影响，我们预计 2月国内零售 持续同环比两位数下滑。各省市以旧换新实施细则在 1-2 月陆续发布，发布 前政策虽已明确但补贴申领渠道尚未开放，会引起消费者的观望情绪，同时 购置税减半征收实施初期、春节休假等均对 2 月销量产生负面影响。2 月第 一周国内零售约 11.9 万辆，单日销量 1.5 万辆，2024 年和 2025 年春节前两 周的日均销量分别是 2.5 万辆和 3.1 万辆，低于历史同期水平。 3 月以旧换新申请渠道开放+插混纯电续航提升（即产品力提升）均是积极因 素，推动市场回暖。政策方面，以旧换新申请渠道开放，消费者观望情绪释 放。产品方面，在价格战熄火后提升产品力成为车企在市场竞争中取胜的关 键方式，比亚迪对插混和纯电车均升级电池或优化能耗来增加续航里程，尤 其是对于续航不足 100km 插混车型，在保持原售价的情况下增加电 ...

Meta 智能眼镜产品深度解析： 技术、生态与商业化全景图 目前，Meta 已构建起清晰的三级产品矩阵：以 Ray-Ban Meta 为代表的 AI 音频眼镜主打轻量化与内容捕捉，以 Hypernova 为代表的平视显示眼镜探 索神经交互，而以 Orion 为原型的全息 AR 眼镜则展现了从"听觉延伸"向 "视觉增强"逐步递进的战略逻辑。 产品矩阵：摆脱极客玩具定位，构建听觉向视觉递进的三级产品矩阵 穿戴式计算产业已走出早期"极客玩具"的定位局限，转向以时尚属性为核心 的成熟发展阶段。Meta 吸取了 Google Glass 的经验，通过将计算单元隐形 于经典镜框之中的策略，降低了设备的异化感，并在 2025 年第二季度占据了 全球 AR/VR 市场近 60%的份额。 产业拐点：突破续航与 AI 瓶颈，拓展专业运动场景的商业版图 2025 年至 2026 年标志着智能眼镜行业的产业拐点，硬件瓶颈与 AI 能力的双 重突破推动了产品的全天候普及。Ray-Ban Meta Gen 2 通过引入高能量密 度的硅负极电池，将混合续航提升至 8 小时基准，配合端侧 Llama 4 大模型， 实现了低延迟的多模态交互与 ...

关键矿产清单"扩容"与重心下沉，关键矿产重视程度再抬升。2025 年 11 月，美国地质调查局将关键矿产清单从 50 种扩充至 60 种，铜、硅、冶金煤、 银等基础大宗商品首次入选。2025 版关键矿产清单元素扩容，标志着博弈已 从尖端技术相关品种延伸至基础原材料。 /证券研究报告 | 行业点评 清单品种扩容与国际合作加速——美 国关键矿产发展跟踪 事件描述 2026 年 1 月 14 日，特朗普签署《调整加工关键矿物及其衍生产品进口的公 告》，报告强调美国尚未建立起足够安全、可靠的关键矿产加工产品供应链， 对此美国计划与贸易伙伴国推进达成协议快速保障美国关键矿物的充足供 应，否则将面临新的贸易壁垒，包括高关税和配额限制。期限设定为 180 天， 从公告发布日起计算，到 2026 年 7 月 13 日结束，该事件标志着美国进一步 加速建设与完善关键矿产供应链。 事件点评 回顾：从投资品种与支持方式两个角度看美国关键矿产核心元素。美国政府 以战争部为牵头，进出口银行和产业资本为支撑，建设多层级的战略金属投 资、扶持体系：1）从投资金额看稀土、锂、锑、钪和钴已成为美国目前的扶 持重点；2）而从扶持手段与工具来看， ...

Group 1: Overview of Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting the acceleration of resource competition and technological revolution as key factors reshaping the landscape [2][3] - The overall price trends for non-ferrous metals in 2025 are influenced by tariffs, interest rate cuts, and the reassessment of strategic metal values, with most metals experiencing price increases except for lead and medium-heavy rare earths [8][9] Group 2: Price Trends and Expectations - Precious metals are expected to see significant price increases, with gold and silver projected to rise by 81% and 178% respectively, while industrial metals are expected to increase by approximately 30% [6][8] - The report indicates that the price performance of various metals in 2025 will largely reflect macroeconomic and geopolitical disturbances, with supply constraints and demand fluctuations playing critical roles [5][8] Group 3: Industry Performance and Profitability - The non-ferrous metals sector is projected to achieve a cumulative revenue of 4,247.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.7%, with profits expected to rise by 36.1% [13] - The profitability of the non-ferrous metals industry is closely tied to price trends, with significant profit increases observed across various sub-sectors, particularly in precious and industrial metals [12][13] Group 4: Gold Market Outlook - The report suggests that the gold price is expected to have an upward trend due to factors such as ongoing central bank purchases and the global fiscal expansion, which is likely to reinforce gold's role as a reserve asset [18][19] - The anticipated continuation of the interest rate cut cycle in 2026 is expected to support gold prices, alongside geopolitical uncertainties that may drive demand for safe-haven assets [27][28] Group 5: Copper Market Dynamics - The copper market is expected to experience ongoing supply disruptions, with the potential for price volatility driven by U.S. tariff policies and global resource nationalism [38][42] - Demand for copper is projected to increase significantly due to the growth of AI data centers and energy storage solutions, which will further support copper prices in the long term [49][53] Group 6: Lead Market Analysis - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, with prices expected to remain stable but under pressure due to limited production increases and low operating rates in recycling facilities [59][63] - The report anticipates a modest recovery in lead production in 2026, driven by new projects and improved market conditions, although challenges remain in the recycling sector [63][72]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The price of tungsten has increased significantly, with 65% black tungsten concentrate priced at 632,000 RMB per ton, up 37.4% year-to-date, and tungsten powder priced at 1,550 RMB per kilogram, up 43.5% year-to-date, indicating strong support for elevated tungsten price levels [1][2] - China's supply and export of tungsten are both contracting, with a projected total mining output of 58,000 tons in 2025, down 6.5% year-on-year, and a cumulative export of tungsten products expected to be 13,149 tons, down 27.5% year-on-year [2][8] - The high tungsten prices are stimulating the advancement of tungsten mining projects in Kazakhstan, Canada, South Korea, and Australia, but the pace of capacity release is slow, with expectations of less than 5,000 tons of new capacity from overseas tungsten mines by 2026 [2][10] - The downstream demand for tungsten products is gradually transmitting price changes, with manufacturers adjusting prices in response to rising raw material costs, indicating a need to focus on end-user demand feedback [3][14] Summary by Sections Supply and Export Dynamics - China's tungsten supply is under strict control, with environmental and safety inspections limiting output from non-compliant mines, leading to a significant reduction in exports to key markets such as Japan and the EU [2][8] - The tightening of export controls on dual-use items to Japan is expected to further decrease market access, reinforcing the reliance on domestic supply [2][8] Price Transmission in Downstream Markets - The impact of tungsten price fluctuations on downstream products is mitigated by the low proportion of tungsten in the overall cost structure of tools, which is around 10-15% [13][14] - Price adjustments by tool manufacturers are expected to occur over a 2-6 month period, reflecting the gradual transmission of raw material costs through the supply chain [3][14] Long-term Industry Outlook - The strategic importance of tungsten resources is increasing, with the U.S. and other countries seeking to reduce dependence on Chinese tungsten through various policies, although significant shifts in the industry are not expected within the next 5-10 years [4][11][18] - The transition from low-end to mid-to-high-end tungsten products is anticipated to enhance profitability and support the overall upgrade of the Chinese tungsten industry [4][18]

Regulatory Framework - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the "Guidelines for Performance Comparison Benchmarks of Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds" on January 23, 2026, which will take effect on March 1, 2026[1] - The guidelines consist of six chapters and twenty-one articles, emphasizing the serious and stable application of performance comparison benchmarks[2] Internal Control and Management - Fund managers are required to establish robust internal control mechanisms and management systems to ensure the stability of fund managers and investment styles[3] - The guidelines mandate that performance benchmarks must align with the core elements of the fund contract and investment style, and cannot be changed arbitrarily once selected[9] External Constraints and Supervision - The guidelines enhance external constraints by clarifying the supervisory responsibilities of fund custodians and regulating the behavior of fund sales and evaluation institutions regarding performance benchmarks[2] - Strict regulatory measures will be enforced by the CSRC against violations by fund managers, custodians, sales institutions, and evaluation agencies[10] Performance Benchmark Standards - The "Operational Guidelines" consist of six chapters and twenty-eight articles, detailing the standards for establishing performance benchmarks, which must be representative and sustainable[11] - Fund managers must regularly assess the rationality and potential risks of deviations from performance benchmarks, ensuring compliance and accountability[11] Industry Development Trends - The public fund industry is expected to focus on equity funds, with a need for repositioning in actively managed equity funds[12] - Future adjustments may include thematic funds covering multiple industries and multi-asset investment funds to diversify risks and enhance performance stability[13] Policy Implications - The guidelines support the high-quality development of public funds, addressing issues such as significant performance deviations from benchmarks in actively managed equity funds[12] - The government aims for publicly raised funds to increase their holdings of A-shares by at least 10% annually over the next three years[12]

Global Macro - Global manufacturing shows moderate expansion with a PMI of 50.4% in November, while the US manufacturing PMI is at 51.8% and the Eurozone at 48.8%[7] - The US manufacturing sector is benefiting from geopolitical tensions, while the Eurozone, particularly Germany, faces significant challenges with a PMI of 47%[7] Domestic Macro - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is set at 5%, with nominal GDP growth at 4%[11] - Consumption contributes 2.6% to GDP growth, investment contributes 0.77%, and net exports contribute 1.64%[11] - December data shows a 0.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales, with significant declines in sectors like construction materials (-11.8%) and home appliances (-18.7%)[17] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in December fell by 16%, with manufacturing investment down 10.5% and real estate investment down 36.3%[19] - The stock market is expected to perform well due to the rapid economic transition and high demand for technology sectors[33] Policy Environment - The policy focus remains on stability, with no significant new stimulus measures announced in December[30] - The government aims to support domestic demand through fiscal and monetary policies, including increased consumer loan subsidies[28] Inflation and Financial Cycle - December CPI rose by 0.8%, while PPI decreased by 1.9%, indicating a mixed inflation outlook[24] - The financial cycle is in a downward trend, with social financing growth slowing to 8.3% year-on-year[24]