Group 1: Overview of Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting the acceleration of resource competition and technological revolution as key factors reshaping the landscape [2][3] - The overall price trends for non-ferrous metals in 2025 are influenced by tariffs, interest rate cuts, and the reassessment of strategic metal values, with most metals experiencing price increases except for lead and medium-heavy rare earths [8][9] Group 2: Price Trends and Expectations - Precious metals are expected to see significant price increases, with gold and silver projected to rise by 81% and 178% respectively, while industrial metals are expected to increase by approximately 30% [6][8] - The report indicates that the price performance of various metals in 2025 will largely reflect macroeconomic and geopolitical disturbances, with supply constraints and demand fluctuations playing critical roles [5][8] Group 3: Industry Performance and Profitability - The non-ferrous metals sector is projected to achieve a cumulative revenue of 4,247.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.7%, with profits expected to rise by 36.1% [13] - The profitability of the non-ferrous metals industry is closely tied to price trends, with significant profit increases observed across various sub-sectors, particularly in precious and industrial metals [12][13] Group 4: Gold Market Outlook - The report suggests that the gold price is expected to have an upward trend due to factors such as ongoing central bank purchases and the global fiscal expansion, which is likely to reinforce gold's role as a reserve asset [18][19] - The anticipated continuation of the interest rate cut cycle in 2026 is expected to support gold prices, alongside geopolitical uncertainties that may drive demand for safe-haven assets [27][28] Group 5: Copper Market Dynamics - The copper market is expected to experience ongoing supply disruptions, with the potential for price volatility driven by U.S. tariff policies and global resource nationalism [38][42] - Demand for copper is projected to increase significantly due to the growth of AI data centers and energy storage solutions, which will further support copper prices in the long term [49][53] Group 6: Lead Market Analysis - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, with prices expected to remain stable but under pressure due to limited production increases and low operating rates in recycling facilities [59][63] - The report anticipates a modest recovery in lead production in 2026, driven by new projects and improved market conditions, although challenges remain in the recycling sector [63][72]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The price of tungsten has increased significantly, with 65% black tungsten concentrate priced at 632,000 RMB per ton, up 37.4% year-to-date, and tungsten powder priced at 1,550 RMB per kilogram, up 43.5% year-to-date, indicating strong support for elevated tungsten price levels [1][2] - China's supply and export of tungsten are both contracting, with a projected total mining output of 58,000 tons in 2025, down 6.5% year-on-year, and a cumulative export of tungsten products expected to be 13,149 tons, down 27.5% year-on-year [2][8] - The high tungsten prices are stimulating the advancement of tungsten mining projects in Kazakhstan, Canada, South Korea, and Australia, but the pace of capacity release is slow, with expectations of less than 5,000 tons of new capacity from overseas tungsten mines by 2026 [2][10] - The downstream demand for tungsten products is gradually transmitting price changes, with manufacturers adjusting prices in response to rising raw material costs, indicating a need to focus on end-user demand feedback [3][14] Summary by Sections Supply and Export Dynamics - China's tungsten supply is under strict control, with environmental and safety inspections limiting output from non-compliant mines, leading to a significant reduction in exports to key markets such as Japan and the EU [2][8] - The tightening of export controls on dual-use items to Japan is expected to further decrease market access, reinforcing the reliance on domestic supply [2][8] Price Transmission in Downstream Markets - The impact of tungsten price fluctuations on downstream products is mitigated by the low proportion of tungsten in the overall cost structure of tools, which is around 10-15% [13][14] - Price adjustments by tool manufacturers are expected to occur over a 2-6 month period, reflecting the gradual transmission of raw material costs through the supply chain [3][14] Long-term Industry Outlook - The strategic importance of tungsten resources is increasing, with the U.S. and other countries seeking to reduce dependence on Chinese tungsten through various policies, although significant shifts in the industry are not expected within the next 5-10 years [4][11][18] - The transition from low-end to mid-to-high-end tungsten products is anticipated to enhance profitability and support the overall upgrade of the Chinese tungsten industry [4][18]

Regulatory Framework - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the "Guidelines for Performance Comparison Benchmarks of Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds" on January 23, 2026, which will take effect on March 1, 2026[1] - The guidelines consist of six chapters and twenty-one articles, emphasizing the serious and stable application of performance comparison benchmarks[2] Internal Control and Management - Fund managers are required to establish robust internal control mechanisms and management systems to ensure the stability of fund managers and investment styles[3] - The guidelines mandate that performance benchmarks must align with the core elements of the fund contract and investment style, and cannot be changed arbitrarily once selected[9] External Constraints and Supervision - The guidelines enhance external constraints by clarifying the supervisory responsibilities of fund custodians and regulating the behavior of fund sales and evaluation institutions regarding performance benchmarks[2] - Strict regulatory measures will be enforced by the CSRC against violations by fund managers, custodians, sales institutions, and evaluation agencies[10] Performance Benchmark Standards - The "Operational Guidelines" consist of six chapters and twenty-eight articles, detailing the standards for establishing performance benchmarks, which must be representative and sustainable[11] - Fund managers must regularly assess the rationality and potential risks of deviations from performance benchmarks, ensuring compliance and accountability[11] Industry Development Trends - The public fund industry is expected to focus on equity funds, with a need for repositioning in actively managed equity funds[12] - Future adjustments may include thematic funds covering multiple industries and multi-asset investment funds to diversify risks and enhance performance stability[13] Policy Implications - The guidelines support the high-quality development of public funds, addressing issues such as significant performance deviations from benchmarks in actively managed equity funds[12] - The government aims for publicly raised funds to increase their holdings of A-shares by at least 10% annually over the next three years[12]

Global Macro - Global manufacturing shows moderate expansion with a PMI of 50.4% in November, while the US manufacturing PMI is at 51.8% and the Eurozone at 48.8%[7] - The US manufacturing sector is benefiting from geopolitical tensions, while the Eurozone, particularly Germany, faces significant challenges with a PMI of 47%[7] Domestic Macro - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is set at 5%, with nominal GDP growth at 4%[11] - Consumption contributes 2.6% to GDP growth, investment contributes 0.77%, and net exports contribute 1.64%[11] - December data shows a 0.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales, with significant declines in sectors like construction materials (-11.8%) and home appliances (-18.7%)[17] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in December fell by 16%, with manufacturing investment down 10.5% and real estate investment down 36.3%[19] - The stock market is expected to perform well due to the rapid economic transition and high demand for technology sectors[33] Policy Environment - The policy focus remains on stability, with no significant new stimulus measures announced in December[30] - The government aims to support domestic demand through fiscal and monetary policies, including increased consumer loan subsidies[28] Inflation and Financial Cycle - December CPI rose by 0.8%, while PPI decreased by 1.9%, indicating a mixed inflation outlook[24] - The financial cycle is in a downward trend, with social financing growth slowing to 8.3% year-on-year[24]

Global Macro - Global manufacturing shows moderate expansion with a PMI of 50.4% in November, while the US manufacturing PMI is at 51.8% and the Eurozone at 48.8%[7] - The US manufacturing sector is benefiting from geopolitical tensions, while the Eurozone, particularly Germany, faces significant challenges with a PMI of 47%[7] Domestic Macro - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is set at 5%, with nominal GDP growth at 4%[11] - Consumption contributes 2.6% to GDP growth, investment contributes 0.77%, and net exports contribute 1.64%[11] - December data shows a 0.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales, but significant declines in sectors like construction materials (-11.8%) and home appliances (-18.7%)[17] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in December fell by 16%, with manufacturing investment down 10.5% and real estate investment down 36.3%[19] - The stock market outlook remains positive, driven by a rapid economic transition and significant capital inflows from under-allocated savings[33] Policy Environment - The policy focus remains on stability rather than aggressive stimulus, with measures aimed at supporting demand and managing external risks[30] - The financial cycle is in a downward trend, with inflation showing signs of recovery but lacking strong momentum[24] Risks - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts and unexpected downturns in the Chinese economy[34]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric equipment industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of energy storage, projecting a significant increase in global new energy storage installations from 13 GWh in 2020 to 306 GWh by 2025, representing over a 20-fold increase [9] - The report identifies energy transition as the primary driving force behind the growth of the energy storage market, with major economies committing to ambitious carbon neutrality goals [55] - The report highlights the importance of economic viability and demand for energy storage, indicating that the cost of energy storage (LCOS) is expected to decrease significantly, making projects more economically feasible [12][16] Summary by Sections Global Energy Storage Development Review - Since the Paris Agreement, the penetration rates of wind and solar energy in China, the US, and Europe have rapidly increased, with these regions accounting for 56% of global electricity generation by 2024 [7] - The report notes that the global new energy storage market has transitioned from 0-1 and 1-10 development phases over the past five years, with China leading the growth [9] Future Short-term Variables - Key variables affecting the energy storage market include lithium carbonate prices, peak-valley price differences in the spot market, capacity compensation, tariffs, export tax rebates, and grid access capabilities [20] - The report warns that rising lithium prices could suppress energy storage demand if they continue to increase in 2026 [21] Long-term Trends - The report underscores the energy transition as a critical driver, with countries increasing their national commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance renewable energy usage [55] - The report also discusses the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on energy storage demand, particularly through the development of advanced data centers that require reliable energy supply [62][71] Economic Viability - The report indicates that the cost of energy storage is expected to fall significantly, with projections for 2025 showing costs between 0.35-0.60 RMB per kWh, making energy storage projects economically viable in several provinces [12][16] - The report highlights that the economic viability of energy storage will depend on the relationship between energy storage costs and revenue from energy sales [16] Emerging Markets - The report identifies emerging markets such as the Middle East, India, Australia, Japan, South Africa, and Chile as areas of interest for energy storage development, driven by favorable policies and growing energy needs [57] Conclusion - The report concludes that the global energy storage market has substantial growth potential, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 21.3% from 2024 to 2035, indicating a clear and promising growth trajectory [59]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the uranium industry is "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish trend for uranium, driven by geopolitical factors and the global push for clean energy solutions, particularly nuclear power [28] - Uranium is recognized as a strategic mineral, with its importance highlighted in various national critical mineral lists, including those of the US, China, and Canada [28] - The report outlines the nuclear fuel cycle, indicating that uranium constitutes 51% of nuclear fuel costs, which translates to approximately 9% of the overall cost of nuclear power generation [29] Summary by Sections 1. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Overview - The nuclear fuel cycle includes the preparation of nuclear fuel before it enters the reactor, its combustion within the reactor, and the subsequent processing of spent fuel [34] - The cycle can be categorized into front-end and back-end processes, with the front-end involving uranium mining, conversion, and enrichment, while the back-end includes spent fuel management and waste disposal [34] 2. Natural Uranium Price Review and Forecast - The report does not provide specific details in this section, indicating a focus on supply-demand dynamics instead [7] 3. Natural Uranium Supply and Demand Patterns - Natural uranium is widely distributed in the Earth's crust, with an average abundance of approximately 2.5 parts per million (ppm) [37] - The report identifies that the highest economic value uranium deposits are sandstone/sedimentary types, which account for about 18% of global resources [37] - Kazakhstan, Canada, and Australia together account for over 50% of the world's uranium resources, with Kazakhstan being the largest producer [44][49] 4. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Technology Chain Overview - The report details the entire nuclear fuel cycle, emphasizing the importance of uranium as a critical resource for nuclear energy [28] - It highlights that uranium's cost constitutes a significant portion of nuclear fuel expenses, with the front-end costs being crucial for the overall economics of nuclear power [29] 5. Upstream - Uranium Resource Distribution - The report notes that the global uranium resource distribution is concentrated, with Australia, Kazakhstan, and Canada holding the majority of the resources [44] - It mentions that the global uranium production is expected to meet 90% of the demand, with Kazakhstan, Canada, and Namibia being the top producers [49] 6. Midstream - Conversion and Enrichment - The report states that only a few countries, including Russia, the US, France, and China, possess large-scale uranium conversion and enrichment capabilities [59][65] - It highlights the strategic sensitivity of the enrichment process, which is tightly regulated and dominated by a few key players [65] 7. Downstream - Nuclear Fuel Component Manufacturing - The manufacturing of nuclear fuel components is the final step in the nuclear fuel cycle, primarily involving the production of uranium oxide ceramic fuel pellets [74] - The report indicates that the global capacity for fuel component manufacturing is currently in surplus, with countries like China, India, and South Korea striving for self-sufficiency [74]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of the development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) on the demand for cutting tools, particularly in the automotive sector, which has traditionally been the largest consumer of tungsten and hard alloy materials [18][19] - MAPAL, a leading manufacturer of non-standard cutting tools, has successfully navigated its growth through a focus on innovation and specialization, particularly in the automotive industry [14][15] - The shift towards NEVs has led to a decline in the consumption of tungsten per vehicle, with a reported decrease of 23% for plug-in hybrid vehicles and 65% for pure electric vehicles compared to traditional fuel vehicles [49] Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus and Innovation - MAPAL has achieved significant growth in non-standard cutting tools through a four-phase development strategy, emphasizing innovation and specialization in precision tools for the automotive industry [14][15] Section 2: Impact of NEVs on Tool Demand - The automotive industry is experiencing a notable decline in tungsten consumption, dropping from 25.84% in 2017 to 18.44% in 2024 due to the rise of NEVs [23][24] - NEVs have simpler structures compared to traditional vehicles, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of cutting parts and overall machining workload, with machining time for pure electric vehicles reduced by 74% [31][30] - The increasing use of lightweight materials such as aluminum and magnesium alloys in NEVs is further impacting the demand for traditional hard alloy tools [47][40] Section 3: MAPAL's Solutions for NEVs - MAPAL has developed comprehensive machining solutions tailored for NEVs, including specialized non-standard tools that enable continuous processing without tool changes [50][52] - The company offers a range of solutions based on the complexity and volume of parts, ensuring high efficiency and quality in the machining process [55][56] Section 4: Opportunities in Non-Standard PCD Tools - The report emphasizes the growing market for non-standard polycrystalline diamond (PCD) tools in the NEV sector, projecting a potential growth of 1.9 to 2.7 times in the next five years [35][36] - PCD tools are particularly suited for the lightweight materials used in NEVs, providing superior machining performance and material compatibility [34][33]

Group 1: U.S. National Security Strategy Changes - The U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) 2025 marks a significant shift from promoting ideology to defending "Western civilization" and its core territories, emphasizing the importance of mineral resources[1] - The strategy identifies North America as an inviolable core area, while Latin America is viewed as a strategic depth that needs "purification" from external competitors, particularly China[12] - In the Indo-Pacific region, the U.S. aims to curb China through military deterrence and supply chain cooperation with allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India, focusing on economic competition as the decisive factor[15] Group 2: Methods to Contain Chinese Mining - Legal barriers will be implemented through the expansion of "Foreign Entities of Concern" rules, forcing a restructuring of global mining equity and restricting Chinese companies' overseas paths[2] - Financial sanctions will be utilized to cut off financing channels for Chinese companies, block IPOs, and freeze settlement channels, potentially affecting third parties that assist[2] - The U.S. will construct exclusive logistics networks to physically isolate Chinese mining operations and promote standards that exclude Chinese supply chains from high-end markets[2] Group 3: Risk Assessment of Mining Regions - North America is classified as a high-risk area for Chinese mining enterprises, with potential asset confiscation and administrative intervention due to national security concerns[36] - South America is deemed a dangerous zone, where U.S. strategies aim to create operational difficulties for Chinese companies through high tariffs and responsible mining certifications[39] - Africa is identified as a competitive zone, where the U.S. engages in resource competition without seeking to monopolize, allowing for some operational flexibility for Chinese firms[42]

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to remain stable in 2026, with a projected interest rate cut of 50-75 basis points (bp) by the Federal Reserve due to weakening economic conditions and increased pressure on the Fed's independence from the Trump administration[1] - Major economies are entering a "big fiscal era," with significant fiscal expansions breaking previous fiscal discipline to address geopolitical conflicts and supply chain security, leading to increased demand for physical assets[1] China Economic Insights - China's GDP growth is projected to be around 5% in 2026, supported by moderately loose monetary policy and more proactive fiscal policy, with a fiscal deficit rate maintained at approximately 4%[2] - The consumer growth momentum remains weak, with nominal GDP growth dropping to 3.7% in Q3 2025, leading to a disparity between macroeconomic data and microeconomic sentiment[2] - The PPI is expected to face challenges in turning positive in 2026, with inflation anticipated to recover slowly due to structural factors and weak financial cycles[2] Currency and Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar is expected to enter a long-term downtrend, influenced by its overvaluation relative to purchasing power parity and the US government's intention to promote a weaker dollar to reduce trade deficits[3] - The Chinese yuan is projected to appreciate gradually, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US, as well as China's significant trade surplus with regions like the EU and ASEAN[3] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The stock market is favored over bonds, with a slow bull market anticipated in China driven by factors such as improved global liquidity from a weak dollar and strategic government support for capital markets[4] - Commodity prices are expected to enter a long-term upward cycle, driven by the weak dollar, supply chain restructuring, and increased demand for physical assets due to expansive fiscal policies[4]