[Table_Main] 美国国家安全战略对中国矿业的影响 ——国际地缘政治系列之二 报告要点 美国的全球战略布局出现调整。2025 年发布的美国《国家安全战略》标志着 美国全球战略的重大转变，美国不再致力于向全球输出意识形态，而是将重点 转向捍卫"西方文明"的核心堡垒（美洲）及其势力范围，并凸显了对于矿产 资源的高度重视及竞争意图。在西半球，美国提出了"门罗主义的特朗普推论"， 将西半球视为不可侵犯的核心势力范围和需要被"净化"的战略纵深。在印太 地区，美国采取务实的利益博弈，不再强调意识形态对抗，而是联合日本、韩 国、澳大利亚及印度等盟友，通过增强军事威慑和供应链合作来遏制中国，并 明确"经济是决胜点"。在欧洲，美国指责欧洲经济衰退和移民政策削弱了西 方文明根基。在非洲与中东，美国转向"资源交易主义"，不再纠结政体问题， 而是直接与中国展开资源竞争。 美国可能采取哪些遏制中国矿业的手段？一是法律壁垒，通过"受关注外国实 体"规则极化和"有效控制"概念的扩张，强制重组全球矿业股权，挤压中企 出海路径。利用国家安全审查实施具有追溯性的资产剥离等等。二是金融制裁， 利用美元霸权切断中企融资管道，阻击 IPO，扩 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 [Table_Main] 行稳致远——2026 年宏观和大类资产 配置展望 报告要点 全球：经济平稳，降息持续。2026 年全球经济预计将保持平稳运行。从周期 位置看，美国经济处于下行期后期，美联储降息周期将持续，预计 2026 年将 有 50bp-75bp 的降息幅度。这不仅因为经济边际转弱，还受到特朗普政府对 美联储独立性施压的影响，未来美联储内部鸽派官员或将增加。更深远的宏观 变化在于全球进入"大财政时代"。为应对地缘政治冲突和重建产业链安全的 需求，主要经济体（美、中、欧、日）均打破了财政纪律，转向大规模财政扩 张。这一趋势将长期持续，意味着宏观调控从货币主导转向财政主导，这将推 升实物资产需求，使全球长期利率中枢难以回到极低水平。 中国：转型中的阵痛与应对。中国经济仍存在"宏微观温差"，导致企业和居 民体感不佳 。造成这一现象的根本原因是物价低迷，而物价低迷不仅源于金 融周期偏弱，更源于深层的结构性因素：经济"去地产化"导致商品需求下降， 以及居民消费结构向服务业转移。预计 2026 年通胀将温和缓慢回升，PP I 转 正难度仍大。消费增长内生动力偏弱。投资整体有望边际回 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the electrical equipment industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of industry valuation driven by anti-involution measures and the growth opportunities presented by new technologies such as copper substitution for silver and the industrialization of perovskite materials [7] - The offshore wind power sector is expected to see significant growth, with companies expanding their overseas operations to enhance profitability [7] Summary by Sections Electricity Prices - The report indicates a downward trend in electricity prices for new energy, with spot prices declining due to oversupply, negatively impacting investment demand, particularly in the photovoltaic sector [1][12][21] Photovoltaics - Short-term demand for photovoltaics is weak, with production declining in recent months. The domestic market is constrained by electricity prices, while the European market faces challenges due to insufficient grid infrastructure. The U.S. market is hindered by the rapid phase-out of subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act [2] - The focus is on the supply side, with anti-involution measures showing positive effects, leading to price recovery in the industry chain. The estimated component price is projected to be between 0.80 and 0.85 yuan/W, assuming a 5% net profit margin across various segments [2][41] - Investment opportunities are identified in the valuation recovery from anti-involution and advancements in new technologies [2] Wind Power - The report emphasizes the growth trend in wind power, particularly in the European market, where onshore and offshore wind power are expected to grow at CAGRs of 14% and 34%, respectively. The first half of 2025 saw a significant increase in offshore wind power FID amounts, which grew by 1.8 times year-on-year [3] - The report notes that the wind turbine bidding prices have been recovering since Q3 2024, indicating improved profitability for wind turbine manufacturers. The trend towards larger wind turbines is expected to ease price pressures [3][69] - The global wind power supply chain is primarily located in the Asia-Pacific region, with China being a core supplier. Many components are sourced from China for the European and American markets, providing opportunities for Chinese wind power companies to expand internationally [3][60][70]

证券研究报告[Table_First] | 行业深度 2026 年锂电行业四大关注点 报告要点 展望 2026 年锂电板块产业，从供需层面有四大关注点： 关注点一：锂电池需求展望。在下游新能源车需求增长的基础上，总体单车带 电量的提升关注商用车等贡献。 关注点二：锂电产业供需紧平衡是否会加剧。2025Q3 的旺季出现了供需紧平 衡的首次测试，2026 年产业供需紧平衡有望加剧。从结构上看，预期旺季下 库存行为成为重点变量。从产业变化上看，电池企业纷纷强化对 2026 年材料 保供，当前对供给侧担忧明显加剧。 从材料迭代层面，建议关注固态电池、高压实铁锂、硅基负极、钠电池等产业 进展。 总的看，展望 2026 年，有望处于新一轮需求周期延续期以及新一轮材料迭代 升级关键期。 [Table_Invest] 电气设备 评级： 看好 日期： 2025.12.25 [Table_Author] 分析师 张鹏 登记编码：S0950523070001 ：18820232934 ：zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn [Table_PicQuote] 行业表现 2025/12/24 -18% -4% 10% 24% ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 人民币升值的原因、展望及影响 事件描述 近期人民币汇率出现升值趋势。自 11 月 24 日至 12 月 23 日这一个月来，人 民币兑美元升值幅度为 1.2%。在 4 月份美国关税战的冲击过后，人民币一直 处于升值趋势，目前已经逼近"7"关口。 事件点评 人民币缘何升值？我们认为推动人民币升值的主要因素有以下几点：第一，美 元贬值导致的人民币被动升值。第二，中国的出口强劲，支撑人民币升值。第 三，中国货币政策相对克制。 人民币汇率未来的趋势是什么？我们认为人民币升值的趋势有望持续。首先， 从内生动力来看，中美利差有望继续缩窄，给人民币汇率以升值动力。其次， 从外部形势来看，中国巨大的贸易顺差也客观上要求人民币升值。但升值将会 是缓慢的、逐步的升值趋势，而非快速大幅升值。 人民币升值有何影响？第一，有利于增强中国资产的吸引力。第二，对于出口 企业相对不利，对于进口企业则利好。 [Table_Invest] 宏观点评 日期： 2025.12.25 [Table_Author] 分析师 尤春野 登记编码：S0950523100001 ：021-61102508 ：youchunye1@w ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 经济加速"去地产化" 报告摘要 海外宏观：全球经济平稳运行。全球制造业温和扩张。美国制造业景气度相对 较高，欧元区表现相对较弱，其中德国对整体欧元区的拖累较大。由于德国汽 车行业相对于中国汽车的优势不断下降，其需求持续降温，且受到美国关税的 冲击，制造业下滑速度较快。美国 11 月就业市场降温。但这一数据尚不能对 美联储的货币政策产生很大影响，也暂时无需担忧美国经济会陷入衰退。美联 储 12 月会议如期降息。我们认为美联储降息周期尚未终止，但未来几个月内 美联储进一步降息的概率较小。未来几个月内美联储内部及美联储主席候选人 的表态将对金融市场造成较大影响。 国内宏观："去地产化"加速。11 月中国经济数据普遍走弱。工业增加值、 消费、固定资产投资等重要数据纷纷下滑。出口表现依然较强。我们认为内需 数据走弱的集中体现在各个领域的"去地产化"。即房地产行业加速下行导致 对经济总体的拖累加大。房地产行业需要更大力度的政策支持，比如加大政府 收储力度以消化库存等手段实现止跌回稳，以遏制整体经济的快速下滑。出口 仍然保持韧性，"去美国化"持续。我们认为明年出口依然是拉动中国经济的 重要动力。 ...

Policy Direction - The policy aims to increase the proportion and stability of commercial insurance funds invested in A-shares, targeting a 30% investment of new premiums into A-shares from 2025[8] - The pilot program for long-term investment by insurance funds has been expanded, with a total of 222 billion yuan approved for long-term investments in 2023[9] - Regulatory rules are being optimized, including a 10% reduction in risk factors for stock investments and adjustments to the solvency ratio requirements for equity assets[9] Investment Projections - In a neutral scenario, insurance funds are projected to increase equity investments by 1.15 trillion yuan in 2026 and 1.45 trillion yuan in 2027, raising the equity asset proportion to 23.6% and 24.6% respectively[2] - If new premiums are allocated 30% to A-shares, the projected new equity investments would be 9.88 trillion yuan in 2026 and 10.77 trillion yuan in 2027, with equity asset proportions reaching 23.2% and 23.7%[28] Risk Factors and Challenges - Risks include lower-than-expected premium income, which could lead to insufficient new funds for investment[4] - Significant market volatility may impact investment returns and asset values, affecting the pace of insurance funds entering the market[4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in Europe from 2020 to 2025 has experienced three phases: "explosion period ➡ stagnation period ➡ return to growth" [15] - The EU's carbon emission targets are driving the cyclical growth of electric vehicles (EVs) [15] - Government incentives and infrastructure development are directly related to EV penetration rates [2] - Automakers are transitioning to new electric platforms and expanding their product matrix to include entry-level models [3] - The long-term trend for European EVs suggests a potential for steady growth beyond cyclical fluctuations [4] Summary by Sections 1. EU's Top-Level Design - Carbon Emission Targets - The EU has implemented stringent carbon emission regulations, tightening targets every five years, which has led to a cyclical growth pattern in NEVs [16] - The average carbon emission target for 2025 is set at 93.6 g/km, with penalties for non-compliance [34] - The introduction of a "new energy vehicle coefficient" allows automakers to count EV sales more favorably towards their carbon targets [24][34] 2. Government Efforts - Incentives & Infrastructure - Various countries have introduced diverse and robust incentive measures, including purchase subsidies, which have significantly boosted EV sales [45] - The correlation between charging station density and EV penetration is strong, with a coefficient of approximately 0.64 [2] - By 2025, Europe will need around 7 million charging stations to meet carbon emission targets, with current numbers at approximately 1.218 million [2] 3. Automakers' Efforts - Electrification Transition - Major automakers are shifting from internal combustion engine platforms to dedicated electric platforms, enhancing product capabilities such as range and charging speed [3] - Companies like Volkswagen and Renault are focusing on reducing vehicle prices to make EVs more accessible, targeting price points around €20,000 [3] - The competitive landscape is evolving with increased offerings from Chinese automakers in the European market [3] 4. Long-Term Trends for European EVs - The average EV penetration rate in Europe needs to reach 33% from 2025 to 2027 to meet carbon emission requirements, with projected rates of 25%, 32%, and 35% for those years [4] - The long-term market outlook is positive, with expected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of approximately 16% from 2025 to 2030 [4]

[Table_Main] 新旧动能转换，资本市场如何做好"科 技金融"大文章？ 报告要点 百年未有之大变局，全球经济复苏乏力、逆全球化进程推进、地缘政治冲突不断，世 界正在经历新的动荡变革期。新一轮科技革命和产业革命不仅为经济增长注入新动 能，也在重塑全球秩序和发展格局，科技创新能力成为大国博弈的主要变量。实现高 水平科技自立自强不仅是应对外部风险、落实国家安全战略的必然要求，也是实现经 济高质量发展的必由之路。 高质量发展阶段，新旧动能转换需要强大的资本市场赋能。"新质生产力"概念的提 出为增强经济发展新动能提供了重要指引。资本市场作为金融资源配置的枢纽，在风 险共担和利益共享方面具备独特优势，以新质生产力推动经济转型升级，需要规范、 透明、开放、有活力、有韧性的资本市场赋能。 经济增长模式由"债务驱动型"向"创新驱动型"转换，金融体系也应该由"间接融 资"走向"直接融资"。高质量发展阶段，金融行业更注重"功能性"的发挥和淡化 "规模情结"，面临盈利性下行和盈利模式转换的双重压力。伴随着供给侧改革的深 化、强监管周期开启，金融行业的盈利模式也将发生根本性改变。 资本市场是现代金融体系的核心和基石，强大的资本 ...

[Table_Main] 平稳过渡，结构优化——中央经济工作 会议精神学习 事件描述 12 月 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中 央军委主席习近平出席会议并发表重要讲话。 事件点评 站在跨年和跨越五年规划周期的节点上，会议高度肯定了过去一年及"十四 五"阶段取得的成果，并对新形势下的经济工作规律进行了深刻总结，提出了 极具战略指导意义的"五个必须"：即"必须充分挖掘经济潜能，必须坚持政策 支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既'放得活'又'管得好'，必须坚持投资于物和投 资于人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。"我们深入研判认为，这 五项"坚持"分别精准对应的是：1）全要素生产率的挖掘与提升、2）高质量发 展的政策协同与制度供给、3）全国统一大市场的构建与微观活力释放、4）居 民福利水平与人力资本的"双重积累"、5）以及在复杂外部环境下统筹发展与 安全，筑牢产业链供应链自主可控的实体经济"安全底座"。 风险提示： 1、 政策力度和效果需要观察； 2、 海外不确定性需持续关注。 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Invest] 宏观点评 日期： ...