战略性矿产系列报告：铀，天然铀 价值重估，长牛征程进行时 五矿证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：王小芃 登记编码：S0950523050002 联系电话：021-61102510 邮箱：wangxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 证券研究报告|行业深度 2026/1/16 | 有色金属行业 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | Contents 目录 01 核燃料循环概览 02 天然铀价格复盘及预测 03 04 天然铀供需格局 风险提示 核燃料循环产业链概览 Nuclear Fuel Cycle Overview 1.1 天然铀的物理、化学性质及放射性（1/2） 资料来源：中国核工业地质局，五矿证券研究所 珍惜有限 创造无限 图表2：铀元素主要以铀-238同位素形式存在在地壳中 资料来源：IAEA，五矿证券研究所 4 铀的物理性质：铀位于第七周期第ⅢB族，属于锕系元素之一，其化学符号为U。1）原子性质：铀原子序数为92，原子量为238，是自然界至 今发现的最重的元素。铀原子呈椭圆形，原子体积为12.59cm3/mol，密度与黄金密度相似（常温下为19.05g/cm3），硬度稍低 ...

[Table_Main] 硬质合金及刀具系列二：从德国玛帕看 刀具行业"隐形赢家"如何获益于新能 源汽车行业发展 报告要点 坚持专注与创新，德国玛帕缔造非标刀具龙头的跨越发展之路。德国高端精 密刀具制造商 MAPAL，专注于非标刀具的开发与应用，以阀体组合刀具和导 条铰刀产品而闻名，其产品自上世纪 80 年代便驰骋于汽车制造行业。纵览 MAPAL 发展史，公司坚持专注与创新，历经四阶段阶梯递进式发展，实现了 非标刀具龙头的跨越式成长。 玛帕呈现新能源汽车切削加工专家级解决方案。玛帕作为业内以非标刀具解 决方案最为知名的公司，面对电驱动新能源汽车快速增长的制造需求，凭借 通用部件解决方案，快速推出了电动车汽车部件的创新加工方案：（1）面向 新能源汽车，打造成套的工件加工解决方案；（2）针对电动车零部件开发非 标刀具，实现无切换连续加工的专家级解决方案；（3）独特的复杂刀体和可 调节切削刃设计，可实现工件的高效加工与柔性加工。 危中寻机：关注新能源汽车领域非标 PCD 刀具布局。汽车制造业属于重资产 行业，固定投资强度高，根据精益生产理论，汽车制造企业一般会通过追求极 致的生产节拍，打造高性价比的质效壁垒。一方面 ...

Group 1: U.S. National Security Strategy Changes - The U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) 2025 marks a significant shift from promoting ideology to defending "Western civilization" and its core territories, emphasizing the importance of mineral resources[1] - The strategy identifies North America as an inviolable core area, while Latin America is viewed as a strategic depth that needs "purification" from external competitors, particularly China[12] - In the Indo-Pacific region, the U.S. aims to curb China through military deterrence and supply chain cooperation with allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India, focusing on economic competition as the decisive factor[15] Group 2: Methods to Contain Chinese Mining - Legal barriers will be implemented through the expansion of "Foreign Entities of Concern" rules, forcing a restructuring of global mining equity and restricting Chinese companies' overseas paths[2] - Financial sanctions will be utilized to cut off financing channels for Chinese companies, block IPOs, and freeze settlement channels, potentially affecting third parties that assist[2] - The U.S. will construct exclusive logistics networks to physically isolate Chinese mining operations and promote standards that exclude Chinese supply chains from high-end markets[2] Group 3: Risk Assessment of Mining Regions - North America is classified as a high-risk area for Chinese mining enterprises, with potential asset confiscation and administrative intervention due to national security concerns[36] - South America is deemed a dangerous zone, where U.S. strategies aim to create operational difficulties for Chinese companies through high tariffs and responsible mining certifications[39] - Africa is identified as a competitive zone, where the U.S. engages in resource competition without seeking to monopolize, allowing for some operational flexibility for Chinese firms[42]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 [Table_Main] 行稳致远——2026 年宏观和大类资产 配置展望 报告要点 全球：经济平稳，降息持续。2026 年全球经济预计将保持平稳运行。从周期 位置看，美国经济处于下行期后期，美联储降息周期将持续，预计 2026 年将 有 50bp-75bp 的降息幅度。这不仅因为经济边际转弱，还受到特朗普政府对 美联储独立性施压的影响，未来美联储内部鸽派官员或将增加。更深远的宏观 变化在于全球进入"大财政时代"。为应对地缘政治冲突和重建产业链安全的 需求，主要经济体（美、中、欧、日）均打破了财政纪律，转向大规模财政扩 张。这一趋势将长期持续，意味着宏观调控从货币主导转向财政主导，这将推 升实物资产需求，使全球长期利率中枢难以回到极低水平。 中国：转型中的阵痛与应对。中国经济仍存在"宏微观温差"，导致企业和居 民体感不佳 。造成这一现象的根本原因是物价低迷，而物价低迷不仅源于金 融周期偏弱，更源于深层的结构性因素：经济"去地产化"导致商品需求下降， 以及居民消费结构向服务业转移。预计 2026 年通胀将温和缓慢回升，PP I 转 正难度仍大。消费增长内生动力偏弱。投资整体有望边际回 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the electrical equipment industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of industry valuation driven by anti-involution measures and the growth opportunities presented by new technologies such as copper substitution for silver and the industrialization of perovskite materials [7] - The offshore wind power sector is expected to see significant growth, with companies expanding their overseas operations to enhance profitability [7] Summary by Sections Electricity Prices - The report indicates a downward trend in electricity prices for new energy, with spot prices declining due to oversupply, negatively impacting investment demand, particularly in the photovoltaic sector [1][12][21] Photovoltaics - Short-term demand for photovoltaics is weak, with production declining in recent months. The domestic market is constrained by electricity prices, while the European market faces challenges due to insufficient grid infrastructure. The U.S. market is hindered by the rapid phase-out of subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act [2] - The focus is on the supply side, with anti-involution measures showing positive effects, leading to price recovery in the industry chain. The estimated component price is projected to be between 0.80 and 0.85 yuan/W, assuming a 5% net profit margin across various segments [2][41] - Investment opportunities are identified in the valuation recovery from anti-involution and advancements in new technologies [2] Wind Power - The report emphasizes the growth trend in wind power, particularly in the European market, where onshore and offshore wind power are expected to grow at CAGRs of 14% and 34%, respectively. The first half of 2025 saw a significant increase in offshore wind power FID amounts, which grew by 1.8 times year-on-year [3] - The report notes that the wind turbine bidding prices have been recovering since Q3 2024, indicating improved profitability for wind turbine manufacturers. The trend towards larger wind turbines is expected to ease price pressures [3][69] - The global wind power supply chain is primarily located in the Asia-Pacific region, with China being a core supplier. Many components are sourced from China for the European and American markets, providing opportunities for Chinese wind power companies to expand internationally [3][60][70]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric equipment industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is expected to experience a new demand cycle and material iteration upgrade in 2026, driven by the growth in new energy vehicle demand and advancements in battery technology [2] - Key focus areas for 2026 include the outlook for lithium battery demand, the potential intensification of supply-demand balance, supply-side expansion conditions, and the limits of price increases under tight supply-demand conditions [2] Summary by Sections 2025 Review: Industry Bottom Confirmed, Energy Storage Battery Demand Exceeds Expectations - The lithium battery industry confirmed its bottom in 2025, with energy storage demand driving global battery shipments to approximately 2.26 TWh, a year-on-year increase of about 49% [13][16] - The supply side experienced a negative feedback loop in both quantity and price, leading to a tightening of supply and price increases in certain lithium materials [13][15] 2026 Supply and Demand Outlook: Tight Balance Continues, Four Key Issues - Demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow, particularly in commercial vehicles, which will enhance battery capacity per vehicle [20][23] - The supply-demand balance is likely to tighten further, with a projected battery shipment of over 2.7 TWh in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% [25][26] - Supply-side expansion is constrained due to general profitability and cash flow issues within the lithium battery industry, limiting aggressive capacity increases [37][41] 2026 Material Iteration Outlook: New Technologies Gradually Realizing - High-pressure lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) is expected to see increased industrialization in 2026, driven by the demand for fast-charging capabilities in electric vehicles [55] - Silicon-based anodes are anticipated to gain market share, with production expected to rise significantly in consumer applications [58] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on solid-state batteries, high-pressure LiFePO4, silicon-based anodes, and sodium batteries as key areas for investment in the evolving lithium battery landscape [2]

Group 1: Currency Appreciation Factors - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD is attributed to a 1.2% increase from November 24 to December 23, approaching the "7" mark[1] - The depreciation of the USD, with a 2.3% drop in the USD index, has led to a passive appreciation of the RMB[7] - Strong export performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.4% until November, supports the RMB's appreciation[8] Group 2: Future Outlook and Impacts - The trend of RMB appreciation is expected to continue, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US[13] - China's significant trade surplus, exceeding $1 trillion in the first 11 months, necessitates RMB appreciation[8] - The appreciation of the RMB enhances the attractiveness of Chinese assets, potentially increasing foreign capital inflow[17] - Export-oriented companies may face challenges due to reduced competitiveness, while import-oriented firms could benefit from lower costs[17] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential underperformance of the Chinese economy and unexpected tightening of US monetary policy[18] - Diplomatic pressures may arise from the expanding trade surplus, necessitating a balanced approach to currency appreciation[16]

Global Macro - Global manufacturing shows moderate expansion, with the global manufacturing PMI at 50.5% in November[5] - The US manufacturing PMI is at 52.2%, indicating relatively high economic activity, while the Eurozone PMI is at 49.6%[5] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since October 2021, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000[7] Domestic Macro - China's economic data weakened in November, with industrial value-added growth at 4.8%, down 0.1 percentage points from October[12] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year in November, with real estate investment down 30.1%[19] - Exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year in November, with a significant decline in exports to the US by 28.6%[20] Policy Environment - Global uncertainty has decreased, but domestic stimulus policies remain weak, focusing on liquidity support rather than aggressive stimulus[25] - The People's Bank of China injected 110 billion yuan through reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan via MLF in November, indicating a stable liquidity approach[27] Market Trends - Precious metals surged, with the RMB appreciating slightly, while the Chinese stock market experienced a pullback[30] - Structural opportunities exist in the Chinese stock market, particularly in technology and AI sectors, despite overall cautious sentiment towards consumer and cyclical sectors[33] Price Trends - China's CPI rose by 0.7% in November, driven by a 14.5% increase in fresh vegetable prices, while PPI fell by 2.2%[22]

Policy Direction - The policy aims to increase the proportion and stability of commercial insurance funds invested in A-shares, targeting a 30% investment of new premiums into A-shares from 2025[8] - The pilot program for long-term investment by insurance funds has been expanded, with a total of 222 billion yuan approved for long-term investments in 2023[9] - Regulatory rules are being optimized, including a 10% reduction in risk factors for stock investments and adjustments to the solvency ratio requirements for equity assets[9] Investment Projections - In a neutral scenario, insurance funds are projected to increase equity investments by 1.15 trillion yuan in 2026 and 1.45 trillion yuan in 2027, raising the equity asset proportion to 23.6% and 24.6% respectively[2] - If new premiums are allocated 30% to A-shares, the projected new equity investments would be 9.88 trillion yuan in 2026 and 10.77 trillion yuan in 2027, with equity asset proportions reaching 23.2% and 23.7%[28] Risk Factors and Challenges - Risks include lower-than-expected premium income, which could lead to insufficient new funds for investment[4] - Significant market volatility may impact investment returns and asset values, affecting the pace of insurance funds entering the market[4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in Europe from 2020 to 2025 has experienced three phases: "explosion period ➡ stagnation period ➡ return to growth" [15] - The EU's carbon emission targets are driving the cyclical growth of electric vehicles (EVs) [15] - Government incentives and infrastructure development are directly related to EV penetration rates [2] - Automakers are transitioning to new electric platforms and expanding their product matrix to include entry-level models [3] - The long-term trend for European EVs suggests a potential for steady growth beyond cyclical fluctuations [4] Summary by Sections 1. EU's Top-Level Design - Carbon Emission Targets - The EU has implemented stringent carbon emission regulations, tightening targets every five years, which has led to a cyclical growth pattern in NEVs [16] - The average carbon emission target for 2025 is set at 93.6 g/km, with penalties for non-compliance [34] - The introduction of a "new energy vehicle coefficient" allows automakers to count EV sales more favorably towards their carbon targets [24][34] 2. Government Efforts - Incentives & Infrastructure - Various countries have introduced diverse and robust incentive measures, including purchase subsidies, which have significantly boosted EV sales [45] - The correlation between charging station density and EV penetration is strong, with a coefficient of approximately 0.64 [2] - By 2025, Europe will need around 7 million charging stations to meet carbon emission targets, with current numbers at approximately 1.218 million [2] 3. Automakers' Efforts - Electrification Transition - Major automakers are shifting from internal combustion engine platforms to dedicated electric platforms, enhancing product capabilities such as range and charging speed [3] - Companies like Volkswagen and Renault are focusing on reducing vehicle prices to make EVs more accessible, targeting price points around €20,000 [3] - The competitive landscape is evolving with increased offerings from Chinese automakers in the European market [3] 4. Long-Term Trends for European EVs - The average EV penetration rate in Europe needs to reach 33% from 2025 to 2027 to meet carbon emission requirements, with projected rates of 25%, 32%, and 35% for those years [4] - The long-term market outlook is positive, with expected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of approximately 16% from 2025 to 2030 [4]