Group 1: FOMC Structure and Independence - The FOMC consists of 7 governors and 5 regional Fed presidents, shaping monetary policy and influencing global capital prices[1] - The upcoming 2026 FOMC personnel changes will be a critical turning point for policy direction and institutional independence[2] - Current governors include three "core dependent" members appointed by Trump, while three others maintain traditional independence, with Powell in a balancing role[2] Group 2: Political Influence and Future Projections - Trump's administration has challenged the independence of the Fed, exerting pressure on Powell and attempting to influence board appointments[1] - The report predicts two interest rate cuts in 2026, with the federal funds rate expected to fall to 3%-3.25%[3] - The Fed is likely to enter a phase of "political rate cuts," increasing uncertainty in decision-making frameworks[2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 1.70% year-on-year[5] - Retail sales have increased by 2.90% year-on-year, while exports have declined by 1.10% year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth stands at 8.21%[5] Group 4: Risks and Market Dynamics - Risks include potential turmoil in overseas markets and uncertainties in domestic policy execution[4] - The Fed's decision-making may face increased internal divisions, complicating consensus-building among committee members[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is a global leader in enterprise management cloud SaaS services, actively promoting AI integration into its management software [1][12] - The transition to a cloud-native EBC (Enterprise Business Capability) is essential for AI implementation, allowing for modular and flexible service offerings [1][39] - The company has seen significant growth in cloud service revenue, which accounted for 83.74% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, reflecting a shift from traditional ERP systems [23][28] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company has established a comprehensive digital solution covering the entire lifecycle of enterprises, serving over 7.4 million businesses and government organizations globally [12] - It ranks first in various SaaS categories in the Chinese market and is the only enterprise management vendor in the top 10 of generative AI models [12] Financial Analysis - The company achieved total revenue of 3.192 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.24%, with a significant reduction in net loss [28] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2020 to 2024 is projected at 16.84%, with improvements in gross and net profit margins [28][34] SaaS Layer - The demand for software upgrades driven by national innovation and the need for domestic alternatives presents substantial market opportunities [2][67] - The company has adapted its products to align with major domestic innovation ecosystems, becoming a preferred choice for state-owned enterprises and top 500 companies [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.957 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2%, and net profits of 72 million yuan [3][4] - The report suggests a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 6.1 for 2025, with a valuation range of 610.68 to 697.92 billion HKD for 2026 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of uncertain Fed rate - cut amplitude next year, significant global economic and geopolitical variables, it's difficult for liquidity to drive a major upward trend. The AI infrastructure faces over - investment doubts, and the AI, lithium - battery, and anti - involution sectors are waiting for certain developments. From a seasonal perspective, high - dividend sectors are expected to have a good performance at the end of the year. Overall, the equity market may enter a wide - range oscillation state, waiting for the spring rally. [2][17] - In the convertible bond market, the capital flow in November had a great impact on the market. The share of convertible bond ETFs showed a "down - up - down" trend, which was consistent with the overall market valuation trend. Due to unclear equity expectations and poor overall cost - effectiveness of convertible bond assets, the premium rate is vulnerable, and the operation of convertible bonds is difficult. [2][17] - For relative - return investors, it is recommended to allocate a small and balanced position in non - callable, high - quality equity - linked convertible bonds with suitable premium rates. For absolute - return investors, it is recommended to focus on convertible bonds below 130 yuan with high odds. [2][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends (2025/12/1 - 2025/12/5) Stock Market - The A - share market was generally oscillating last week. With the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and positive signals from the China - US economic and trade delegation meeting, the market risk appetite remained high. The non - ferrous and commercial aerospace sectors performed strongly. [7] - By industry, most Shenwan primary industries rose. Non - ferrous metals (5.35%), communication (3.69%), national defense and military industry (2.82%), machinery (2.77%), and non - bank finance (2.27%) led the gains, while media (- 3.86%), real estate (- 2.15%), beauty care (- 2.00%), and food and beverage (- 1.90%) lagged. [8] Bond Market - The bond market continued to weaken last week, with sentiment stabilizing and yields slightly declining on Friday. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.85% on Friday, up 0.68bp from the previous week. [8] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 0.08% for the whole week, the median price increased by 0.19%, the arithmetic average parity decreased by 0.17%, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased by 0.79% compared with the previous week. [1][8] - By industry, half of the convertible bond sectors in the market rose. National defense and military industry (+3.64%), non - bank finance (+2.21%), non - ferrous metals (+1.53%), and petroleum and petrochemical (+1.40%) led the gains, while steel (- 2.53%), computer (- 0.96%), household appliances (- 0.91%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 0.71%) lagged. [11] - At the individual bond level, Yake, Weidao, Yong 02, Furong, and Ruichuang convertible bonds led the gains, while Dazhong, Guocheng, Limin, Yingbo, and Yitian convertible bonds led the losses. [1][12] - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 254.549 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 50.91 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week. [15] 3.2 Valuation Overview (as of 2025/12/05) - For equity - linked convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates for par values in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 46.32%, 32.88%, 29.62%, 19.91%, 12.21%, and 11.93% respectively, at the 96%/94%, 90%/86%, 96%/99%, 90%/89%, 78%/67%, 95%/94% percentile since 2010/2021. [18] - For bond - linked convertible bonds, the average YTM for par values below 70 yuan was - 4.11%, at the 1%/4% percentile since 2010/2021. [18] - The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 42.97%, at the 87% percentile since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 1.69%, at the 82%/83% percentile since 2010/2021. [18] 3.3 Primary Market Tracking - From 2025/12/1 to 2025/12/5, the Pulan Convertible Bond was announced for issuance, and no convertible bonds were listed. Pulan Software, the underlying stock of Pulan Convertible Bond, belongs to the computer industry. The company's 2024 revenue was 836 million yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 11.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 121 million yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 95.06%. In 2025Q1 - 3, the revenue was 300 million yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.17%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 100,000 yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 90.07%. The scale of the issued convertible bond is 243 million yuan. [26] - As of the announcement on December 5, there were no announcements of convertible bond issuance and listing in the coming week (2025/12/8 - 2025/12/12). Last week, 2 companies' applications passed the listing committee review, 1 company's application was accepted by the exchange, 3 companies' applications passed the shareholders' meeting, and 2 companies' applications were at the board of directors' proposal stage. Currently, there are 96 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 149.23 billion yuan, including 6 approved for registration with a total scale of 4.47 billion yuan and 8 passing the listing committee review with a total scale of 9.81 billion yuan. [27]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report regularly tracks the latest private exchangeable bond (private EB) projects from public channels and provides basic element tracking. There were no new project information this week (20251201 - 20251205), and some projects were not listed due to compliance reasons. The final terms of private bond issuance should refer to the final prospectus, and the issuance progress should be consulted with the relevant lead underwriters. [1] Group 2: Project Status Table - The table lists 23 private EB projects, including details such as bond names, lead underwriters, scales, underlying stocks, project statuses, and update dates. Among them, 16 projects have passed, 6 projects have received feedback, and 1 project has been accepted. [2] Group 3: Related Research Reports - Lists several related research reports on the weekly tracking of private EBs from 20251027 to 20251128. [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ServiceNow (NOW.N) [5][12] Core Insights - ServiceNow reported subscription revenue of $3.299 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 20.5% at constant currency, exceeding the upper guidance by 1 percentage point and market consensus of $3.265 billion [1][7] - Adjusted net profit reached $1.01 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $900 million, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 33.5%, exceeding guidance by 3 percentage points [1][7] - The company's CRPO (Current Remaining Performance Obligations) grew by 20.5% year-over-year at constant currency, exceeding guidance by 250 basis points [1][7] Government and Large Orders Performance - The government segment showed strong growth with net new ACV (Annual Contract Value) exceeding expectations, growing over 30% year-over-year [2] - Significant growth was observed in transportation and logistics with over 90% year-over-year increase, while retail, hospitality, and education sectors also saw over 50% growth [2] - The company secured 103 transactions exceeding $1 million in ACV during the quarter, including 6 transactions over $10 million and 3 over $20 million [2] AI Product Performance - ServiceNow signed 12 net new ACV transactions exceeding $1 million for its Now Assist product, including one over $10 million [2] - The ITSM Pro Plus and HR Pro Plus products saw net new ACV double quarter-over-quarter, while ITOM Pro Plus grew fivefold [2] - The company aims to achieve over $1 billion in AI revenue by 2026, with AI product ACV expected to exceed $500 million this year [2] Financial Guidance and Outlook - The company raised its full-year subscription revenue guidance by $550 million to a range of $12.835 billion to $12.845 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 20.5% [3] - For Q4, ServiceNow expects subscription revenue of $3.42 billion to $3.43 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 19.5% [3] - The company has approved a 1-for-5 stock split to lower the investment threshold for investors [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at $13.287 billion, $16.139 billion, and $19.641 billion respectively, with net profits projected at $2.007 billion, $2.911 billion, and $4.013 billion [12][4]

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as key beneficiaries [1][12] - The monthly recommended investment portfolio includes leading companies in the livestock sector such as Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, indicating a bullish outlook on their performance [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly from 2025 to 2027 [14] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to a reduction in production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, suggesting an acceleration in the culling of dairy cows [14] - Key recommendations in the livestock sector include Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated price recovery in raw milk and beef [14][19] Swine Sector - The swine sector is characterized by a gradual recovery in prices, with a focus on leading companies such as Huazhong Holdings, Dekang Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to outperform due to their low-cost advantages [15][22] - The report notes that the average price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, reflecting a 10% month-on-month decline, while the price of piglets increased by 18% [22][23] - The report emphasizes that leading companies in the swine sector are likely to see significant cash flow improvements and increased dividend payouts as the industry stabilizes [15][21] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, where prices have shown a modest increase [24][30] - The report indicates that the price of white chicken was 7.10 yuan/kg at the end of November, reflecting a 1.43% month-on-month increase, while chick prices have decreased [25][30] - Recommendations for the poultry sector include leading companies such as Lihua Holdings and Shengnong Development, which are expected to maintain strong profitability amid improving market conditions [17][24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, benefiting from rising consumer sentiment and the emergence of domestic brands, with key recommendations including Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [16][20] - The report highlights that the domestic pet food export volume decreased by 3.88% month-on-month, indicating potential challenges in the export market [20] - The growth of high-end domestic brands during promotional events like Double 11 is noted, suggesting a strong market presence and growth potential for local players [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month to 2289 yuan/ton [2][22] - The report indicates that the supply of eggs is under pressure due to increasing production, while the demand for corn is expected to stabilize as new crops come to market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is projected to experience a recovery, with specific attention to the planting chain and companies with strong R&D capabilities [17][19]

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as core investments [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are leaders in their respective sectors [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly by 2027 [14][40] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to pressure on production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, prompting faster culling of dairy cows [14][40] Swine Sector - The swine sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend potential as industry capacity contracts [1][15] - The report emphasizes that the current valuation of leading swine companies is at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery [15][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, which is entering a consumption peak [24][30] - The report notes that the price of broiler chickens has shown a slight recovery, with a projected increase in profitability for leading poultry companies [24][30] Pet Sector - The pet industry is identified as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and emotional consumer trends [16][20] - The report recommends leading pet food companies, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product upgrades and direct sales transformations [20][16] Feed Sector - The feed sector is highlighted for its deepening industrialization and clear division of labor, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of corn has increased by 4% month-on-month, while soybean meal prices are at historical lows, indicating a potential for future recovery [2][22] - The report also mentions that the egg market is under pressure from supply increases, while the demand for soybeans is tightening in the medium to long term [2][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][6] Core Views - The successful trial run of the million-ton potash fertilizer project at the Xiaodongbu mining area marks a significant milestone for the company, indicating strong long-term growth potential [2][3][7] - The Xiaodongbu mining area has substantial resources, with an estimated potash ore volume of 3.936 billion tons and an estimated potassium chloride resource of 677 million tons, supporting the company's capacity expansion [3][7] - The company is expected to enter a stable production ramp-up phase, aiming for a mid-term production target of 5 million tons, facilitated by the newly operational main transportation system [3][8] Summary by Sections Project Development - The Xiaodongbu mining area is a key growth driver for the company, with a total area of 179.8 square kilometers and a high average potassium chloride grade of 17.14% [3][7] - The main transportation system, which is 2,500 meters long and has a capacity of 3,000 tons per hour, will enable efficient resource development and production upgrades [3][8] Industry Outlook - The global potash fertilizer supply and demand are tight, with expectations for high industry prosperity over the next 2-3 years [4][9] - In October, China's potash imports reached 1.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26%, indicating robust domestic demand [4][9] - The supply side is constrained, with no new production capacity expected until 2025, and only the company's new capacity will be released in 2026-2027 [4][9] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.86 billion, 2.73 billion, and 3.29 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.00, 2.94, and 3.54 yuan [5][10] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23.8, 16.2, and 13.4, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is a global leader in enterprise management cloud SaaS services, actively promoting AI integration into its management software [1][12] - The transition to a cloud-native EBC (Enterprise Business Capability) is essential for AI implementation, allowing for modular and flexible service capabilities [1][39] - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with cloud service revenue accounting for 83.74% of total revenue in 2025H1, reflecting a strong shift from traditional ERP systems [23][28] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 1993 and has developed a comprehensive digital solution covering the entire lifecycle of enterprises, serving over 7.4 million businesses globally [12] - It ranks first in various SaaS categories in the Chinese market and is the only enterprise management vendor in the top 10 for generative AI models [12] Financial Analysis - The company reported total revenue of 31.92 billion yuan in 2025H1, a year-on-year increase of 11.24%, with a significant reduction in net loss [28] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2020 to 2024 is projected at 16.84%, with improvements in gross and net profit margins [28][34] SaaS Market Dynamics - The demand for software upgrades driven by national innovation and the need for domestic alternatives presents substantial opportunities for the company [2][67] - The company has successfully integrated its products with major domestic innovation ecosystems, making it a preferred choice for state-owned enterprises and top 500 companies [2] AI and Market Expansion - The company is leveraging AI advancements to enhance its service offerings, signing contracts with major clients like Hisense Group and Tongwei Co [2] - The growth of the global digital economy is expected to boost the demand for cross-border ERP solutions, with the company signing 259 outbound clients in 2025H1, a 114.05% increase year-on-year [2] Profitability Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 69.57 billion, 79.28 billion, and 90.59 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 0.72 billion, 3.69 billion, and 6.34 billion yuan [3][4] - The report assigns a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 6.1, 5.35, and 4.69 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a target valuation range of 610.68 to 697.92 billion HKD for 2026 [3]

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from the livestock cycle recovery [1][3] - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, suggesting a strong recovery in the performance of livestock companies [1][14] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is projected to experience a major turnaround, with a focus on dairy farming stocks such as YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming [1][14] - The report indicates that the domestic beef and milk markets are likely to see a price rebound, driven by a reduction in production capacity and improved demand dynamics [1][14] - The anticipated "meat-milk resonance" is expected to enhance profitability for dairy farming companies, with significant earnings recovery potential [1][14] Swine Sector - The swine sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in prices, with leading companies like Huazhong and Muyuan Foods positioned to benefit from valuation corrections [1][14] - The report notes that the cash flow of leading swine companies is improving, which may lead to higher dividend payouts in the future [1][15] - The current market conditions suggest that the swine industry is stabilizing, with a focus on maintaining reasonable breeding levels [22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery to support price stabilization [24] - The report highlights that the white-feathered chicken market is showing signs of recovery, with prices expected to improve as the consumption season approaches [24] - Leading poultry companies are anticipated to maintain strong profitability amid changing supply dynamics [24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, with domestic brands gaining traction and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [1][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for local pet food brands to capture market share, particularly in the high-end segment [1][16] - The performance of leading pet food companies is projected to remain strong, driven by product upgrades and direct sales strategies [20] Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages [1][14] - The report indicates that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong cost support for livestock producers [1][14] - The anticipated tightening of supply-demand balance in the feed market is expected to lead to gradual price recovery [1][14] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, down 10% month-on-month, while the price of 7kg piglets increased by 18% [2][22] - The report also highlights that corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month, indicating a potential bottoming out in the market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is showing resilience, with the SW Agricultural Index outperforming the broader market [2][22]