Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariff Policies - The US and China acknowledged substantial progress in trade talks, with a return to pre-April 2 tariff statuses and an additional 10% tariff on equal terms[5] - Both parties expressed a desire to avoid economic decoupling, with the US seeking balanced trade and China showing willingness to increase imports from the US[5] - The establishment of a trade communication mechanism aims to reduce misunderstandings and ensure regular exchanges between working groups[5] Group 2: Economic Impact and Market Outlook - The suspension of the tariff war for three months is expected to maintain high export growth, potentially shifting towards mid and high-end industries[6] - The 10% basic tariff will significantly increase the burden on US consumers, with estimated taxable imports rising from $380 billion in Trump's first term to $2.5 trillion in the second term, a 6.6-fold increase[7] - The basic tariff could generate additional revenue of approximately 0.5% of GDP, partially offsetting the current federal deficit rate of 6.7%[7] Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The focus may shift to new tax reduction proposals post-summer, which could be more lenient than the 2017 version, combining tariffs with tax cuts for households and businesses[8] - The likelihood of a US recession within the year has decreased, although inflation may rise due to the basic tariff, potentially prolonging the current interest rate levels by the Federal Reserve[8] - The overall market sentiment has shifted from neutral to cautiously optimistic in the short term, with a stable outlook for domestic capital markets[8]

中美谈判超预期 市场重回活跃 2025 年 5 月 13 日 A 股策略 点评报告 | | | 观点： 中美谈判超预期。从上轮中美关税战谈判的进程来看，经历了多轮谈判，且两国元首两次会晤之后才达成一定程度的关 税减让，市场普遍对本轮谈判的预期偏谨慎，因此，本次谈判一次性达成大幅降低双边关税的结果，超出市场普遍预期。 美对华加征关税由 4 月 2 日之后的 125%降至 10%，目前综合关税税率为 50%左右，其中前期关税税率约为 20%左右， 芬太尼关税为 20%，对等关税 10%，另外有 24%的关税有 90 天豁免期。中国对美关税税率为 10%，另外 24%的关税 有 90 天豁免期。中美关税博弈短期进入休战期，短期有利于市场预期稳定，中期来看还存在不确定性，但从两国经济发 展的角度出发，合作共赢仍是主旋律。 市场有望重回活跃。在中美谈判超预期的情况下，压制市场的重要因素短期缓解，市场将会重回活跃状态。首先，市场 担忧的出口问题得到缓解，2 季度出口形势得到改善，对基本面的影响偏积极；其次，政策层面出台政策持续发力，政 策效果持续显现，宏观指标持续改善的势头可能会逐步显现，企业经营压力持续缓解；再次，市场 ...

非银行金融行业：优化监管标准， 推动公募基金行业高质量发展 事件：为落实 2024 年 9 月 26 日中央政治局会议"稳步推进公募基金改革" 决策部署，中国证监会于近日公开印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》。 点评： 《方案》共 25 条举措，涉及基金运营、评价考核、风险管理等多方面，是近 年来涉及面最广的公募基金监管政策。政策重点主要包含以下几个方面： 1.推动浮动管理费收取机制的落地实施。将管理费率与业绩比较基准挂钩，未 来一年内行业头部机构发行此类基金数量不低于其主动管理权益类基金发行 数量的 60%； 2.加强基金信息披露透明度。综合展示产品中长期业绩、业绩比较基准对比、 投资者盈亏情况、换手率、产品综合费率水平、管理人实际收取管理费等信息； 3.稳步降低投资者成本。合理调降公募基金的认申购费和销售服务费。引导行 业机构适时下调大规模指数基金、货币市场基金的管理费率与托管费率； 4.改革基金公司绩效考核机制。适当降低规模排名、收入利润等经营性指标的 考核权重。同时，基金投资收益指标应当涵盖基金产品业绩和投资者盈亏情况， 该指标将在基金公司高管和基金经理考核中占据较高比例，同时加大三年以上 中长期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guoxuan High-Tech [6] Core Views - Guoxuan High-Tech achieved a revenue of 35.392 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.207 billion yuan, up 28.6% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.055 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6%, with a net profit of 101 million yuan, up 45.6% year-on-year [1] - The company continues to see high growth in the shipment of power and energy storage batteries, with a total shipment of approximately 63 GWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40% [2] - The company is expanding its global market share, with domestic market share reaching 4.6%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, ranking fourth in the market [2] - The gross margin for power batteries was 15.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for energy storage batteries was 21.8%, up 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated excellent cost control, with expense ratios of 14.8% for 2024 and 15.0% for Q1 2025, down 1.1 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 3.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the return on equity (ROE) was 4.1% [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 44.662 billion yuan, 55.165 billion yuan, and 67.199 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.2%, 23.5%, and 21.8% [5] Global Expansion - Guoxuan High-Tech is steadily advancing its global strategy, with a 5 GWh production base in Vietnam already operational and additional projects in Slovakia and Morocco underway [4] - The company aims to enhance its cost competitiveness in overseas markets through localized production capabilities, which will also provide flexibility in supply amidst geopolitical and trade tensions [4] - The ongoing development of new battery technologies, including solid-state batteries, is expected to further enhance the company's competitive edge in the global market [5]

保利发展（600048.SH）2024 年报 及 2025Q1 业绩点评：强化城市深耕 战略，加快增量项目销售 公司发布 2024 年及 2025Q1 业绩：公司 2024 年实现营业总收入 3116.7 亿元， 同比下滑 10.2%，归母净利润 50.0 亿元，同比下降 58.6%.2025Q1 营业总收 入 542.7 亿元，同比增长 9.1%，归母净利润 19.5 亿元，同比下滑 12.3%。 由于近年来销售规模收缩，存量项目去化压力加大，预计未来 2 年营收仍面临 一定的下行压力。受行业下行的影响，公司销售规模自 2022 年以来持续下降， 2024 年销售金额为 3230 亿元，同比下滑 23.5%。我们根据销售规模拟合竣工 规模，测算 2025 年地产销售收入约下滑 8.9%。 市场下行之下，公司强化城市深耕战略，加快高价增量项目销售，有效对冲低 价库存项目去化压力。公司进一步深耕核心城市，28 个核心城市 2024 年销售 占比达到 90%，同比提升 2 个百分点。近三年的拿地和销售均价显著提升，新 增土储计容建面均价从 2021 年的 0.73 万/平大幅度提升至 2024 年的 1.69 万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 174 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.93%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.74 million yuan, a decrease of 11.93 million yuan year-on-year [3][4]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 31.05%, an increase of 8.49 percentage points year-on-year, although it decreased by 9.34 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [4]. - The company is actively investing in R&D and application of 3D printing technology to establish a second growth curve, leveraging the advantages of complex structure free-forming [5]. - The company is steadily advancing new capacity deployment and expanding both domestic and international markets, with factories in Changsha and Vietnam undergoing preliminary preparations for production [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 561.72 million yuan for 2023, with a growth rate of 10.43%, and expects revenues to reach 2,075.82 million yuan by 2027, with a growth rate of 36.05% [12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 58.77 million yuan in 2023, with a significant increase to 315.55 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 40.47% [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.37 yuan in 2023, increasing to 1.97 yuan by 2027 [12].

统联精密（688210.SH）：收入增长 33.93%，积极布局 3D 打印等技术 2025 年 5 月 9 日 强烈推荐/维持 统联精密 公司报告 ——2025 年一季报业绩点评 事件： 2025 年 4 月 29 日，统联精密发布 2025 年一季报：公司实现营业收入 1.74 亿元，同比增长 33.93%；实现归母净利润为 274.27 万元，同比减少 1192.96 万。 点评： 公司 2025 年一季度实现营收同比增长 33.93%，毛利率为 31.05%，同比增加 8.49pct，业绩明显提升。2025Q1 公司实现营业收入 1.74 亿元，同比增长 33.93%，公司其他金属工艺制品及塑胶制品业务收入增长带动公司营收增长。 同时 Q1 实现归母净利润为 274.27 万元，同比减少 1192.96 万，目前公司处 于投入期，受客户需求季节性波动，短期盈利受到一定影响。公司 1Q25 毛利 率为 31.05%，同比减少 9.34pct，环比减少 1.33pct，主要是由于前期为了满 足客户扩大的产能需求而新增的人力投入和设备等固定资产投入较大，产品单 位成本有所增加，毛利率水平发生波动。 公司积极 ...

食品饮料：五一假期消费市场活 跃，带动餐饮市场恢复 2025 年 5 月 9 日 看好/维持 食品饮料 行业报告 根据商务部 5 日发布的数据显示，"五一"假期全国消费市场繁荣活跃。 据商务部商务大数据监测，假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长 6.3%。其中餐饮文旅市场红火，假期全国重点监测餐饮企业销售额同比增长 8.7%，显示出较强的恢复趋势。 今年五一整体呈现文旅消费双旺的局面，根据去哪儿统计数据，"五一" 假期县城成为"反向旅游"最火目的地。平台上酒店预订遍布 1230 个县， 县城酒店预订量同比增长 30%。从客源地看，一线和新一线城市居民占比超 过六成。旅游消费的旺盛直接推动餐饮市场的恢复，根据商务部统计，假期 全国重点监测餐饮企业销售额同比增长 8.7%，较 2025 年春节全国重点零售 和餐饮企业销售额同比增长 4.1%的增速快 4.6 个百分点，显示出强劲的恢 复。 五一假期呈现的消费市场活跃，我们认为与各地落实中央促进消费内需 政策加大对内需的刺激力度有关，餐饮受到旅游带动呈现较好的恢复。我们 认为随着促内需政策的进一步落实，消费会有进一步的恢复。特别是跟旅游、 文化产业相关的餐饮行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant revenue increase of 35.05% year-on-year, reaching 2.845 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 115.87% to 473 million yuan in 2024 [3][4]. - The strong performance is attributed to robust sales in two core product lines, with power semiconductor chip production and sales increasing by 43.93% and 63.10% respectively, leading to a revenue growth of 44.59% and a gross margin of 23.47% [4]. - The company is expanding its product structure with a new 6-inch wafer production line, which has reached a capacity of 50,000 pieces per month, enhancing its offerings in the power semiconductor sector [5]. - A subsidiary focused on high-end isolation chips has been established, aiming to tap into new growth areas in high-end manufacturing and domestic substitution, with expected sales of around 5 million yuan in 2025 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 2,845 million yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35.05% [12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 473 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 115.87% [12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 0.78 yuan, 1.02 yuan, and 1.35 yuan respectively [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight revenue increase of 1.35% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.87 billion yuan, down 17.71% year-on-year [3][5] - The milk powder and dairy products segment is highlighted as a growth driver, with revenue for 2024 and Q1 2025 reaching 29.68 billion yuan and 8.81 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 7.53% and 18.65% [4][5] - The gross margin improved to 33.88% in 2024 and 37.67% in Q1 2025, attributed to lower raw milk costs and an increased proportion of high-margin products [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company recorded total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.45 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 18.94% [6] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.34 billion yuan, 12.30 billion yuan, and 13.05 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.78, 1.93, and 2.05 [5][6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 34% in the coming years, with a net profit margin projected to improve gradually [5][11]