Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [67]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in prices for coking coal and coke, with coking coal averaging 1093 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and coke at 1129 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton [10][42]. - The polyurethane sector shows a decrease in average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI, with respective averages of 17570, 15790, and 11558 yuan/ton, reflecting declines of 318, 285, and 892 yuan/ton [2][17]. - In the oil, coal, gas, and olefin sector, ethane and propane prices increased slightly, while the average price of polyethylene rose to 7807 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton [2][25]. - The coal chemical sector reported average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid at 2348, 1803, 3965, and 2376 yuan/ton, with minor declines [2][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Polyurethane Sector - Average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 17570, 15790, and 11558 yuan/ton, with corresponding gross profits of 4334, 3534, and 18 yuan/ton [2][19]. - The sector experienced significant price drops, with TDI seeing the largest decline of 892 yuan/ton [2][24]. 2. Oil, Coal, Gas, and Olefin Sector - Ethane and propane prices are 1387 and 4267 yuan/ton, with slight increases of 197 and 9 yuan/ton respectively [2][34]. - The average price of polyethylene is 7807 yuan/ton, reflecting a minor increase of 17 yuan/ton [2][25]. 3. Coal Chemical Sector - Average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2348, 1803, 3965, and 2376 yuan/ton, with slight declines noted [2][51]. - Gross profits for synthetic ammonia and urea are 462 and 137 yuan/ton, while DMF and acetic acid report losses of 119 and 32 yuan/ton respectively [2][51]. 4. Related Listed Companies - Key companies in the chemical sector include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, with varying stock performance noted [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the engineering machinery and oil service equipment sectors [1] Core Insights - The oil service equipment sector is experiencing rapid growth in exports to the Middle East, driven by China's increasing foreign investments in energy projects, with a projected total investment of $50.28 billion from 2020 to 2024 in six countries [2][21] - The engineering machinery sector shows a mixed outlook, with a decline in domestic excavator sales but a recovery in non-excavator sales and exports, indicating undervalued investment opportunities [3] - The trend towards lightweight humanoid robots is accelerating, with increased application of magnesium alloys and PEEK materials, enhancing performance and efficiency [4][27] Summary by Sections Oil Service Equipment - China's foreign investment in energy projects in the Middle East is expected to reach $50.28 billion from 2020 to 2024, with oil and gas projects accounting for $29.15 billion [2][21] - Leading companies like Jerry and Neway have seen explosive growth in orders from the Middle East, with Jerry's orders expected to double in 2024 [2][23] - The Middle East oil service market is projected to be worth over $100 billion, with significant growth potential for Chinese companies [2][21] Engineering Machinery - In May 2025, excavator sales reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%, with domestic sales declining by 1.48% [3] - Non-excavator machinery sales are recovering, with significant year-on-year increases in sales of road rollers and pavers [3] - The sector is currently undervalued, presenting investment opportunities as export sales continue to support overall performance [3] Humanoid Robots - Lightweight design is becoming a core focus for humanoid robot manufacturers, utilizing materials like magnesium alloys and PEEK to reduce weight and improve performance [4][25] - Magnesium alloy's density is only two-thirds that of aluminum, offering advantages in strength and processing, while PEEK materials are expected to see increased application as costs decrease [26][27] - Investment opportunities in magnesium alloy die-casting and PEEK materials are highlighted, with specific companies recommended for attention [5][28] Forklifts and AI in Logistics - The integration of AI in logistics is driving the transformation towards automation, with a focus on unmanned forklifts and smart logistics solutions [6] - Key players in the forklift industry are forming strategic partnerships to enhance their technological capabilities and market reach [6] Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to benefit from the expansion of major players like CATL, with significant investments in new production facilities [10][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of solid-state battery technology as a future growth area, with companies like Xian Dao Intelligent positioned to capitalize on this trend [10][30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the magnesium alloy die-casting sector such as Xusheng Group and Baowu Magnesium, as well as PEEK material companies like Zhongyan Co. and Watte [5][28]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the controlled nuclear fusion industry, driven by policy and capital support, with significant potential for growth and commercialization in the coming years [4][30]. Core Insights - Controlled nuclear fusion is viewed as the ultimate energy solution due to its high energy density, abundant fuel supply, and superior safety [4][9]. - The current phase of controlled nuclear fusion is characterized by a dual drive of policy and capital, with numerous projects underway globally, particularly in China and the US, aiming for commercial viability by the 2030s to 2040s [4][30]. - Various technological pathways are emerging, including magnetic confinement (tokamak), inertial confinement (NIF), and magnetic inertial confinement, with significant advancements expected in the next few years [4][30]. Summary by Sections Part 1: What is Controlled Nuclear Fusion? - Controlled nuclear fusion involves the merging of lighter atomic nuclei to form a heavier nucleus, releasing significant energy, primarily using deuterium and tritium as fuel [9][10]. Part 2: Why is Now a New Phase for Controlled Nuclear Fusion? - The industry is experiencing a surge in support from governments worldwide, with China implementing multiple policies to foster development, including financial backing and international collaboration [30][33]. - The number of active fusion companies has increased significantly, with around 50 globally, 80% of which are private enterprises, indicating a robust investment landscape [40][41]. Part 3: Device Architecture Breakdown and Industry Cost Map - The report outlines the cost structure of fusion devices, with initial experimental tokamak investments around 15 billion yuan, and highlights the significant capital required for development [4][30]. Part 4: Competitive Cost of Fusion Power - The report estimates the cost of electricity from fusion devices, with projected costs of 0.31 and 0.27 yuan/kWh for low-temperature superconducting and linear magnetic inertial fusion devices, respectively, indicating competitive pricing compared to traditional energy sources [4][30]. Part 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key suppliers in the fusion supply chain, including companies like Western Superconducting, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, and Antai Technology, as they are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the fusion sector [4][30].

Macro Strategy - The report discusses the shift in policy focus from "controlling high prices" to "controlling low prices" to boost core CPI, suggesting that service price subsidies could increase core CPI by approximately 0.3 percentage points, offsetting declines in housing service prices [1][11] - It highlights that core CPI has shown a significant rebound since September of the previous year, despite a four-month negative growth trend driven mainly by food and energy prices [1][11] - The report emphasizes the limited upward potential for core goods and housing service prices, indicating that future policy should focus on enhancing prices of other services [1][11] Industry Analysis - The report on the energy sector recommends Foshan City Gas (佛燃能源) as a leading player with a strong dividend policy, projecting net profits of 8.72/9.22/9.76 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 2.2%/5.7%/5.9% respectively, with a buy rating assigned [8] - In the pharmaceutical sector, QHRD107 is highlighted for its promising clinical data presented at the EHA conference, showing significant overall survival benefits for patients with relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia, with a projected net profit of 4.43/5.12/6.09 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a buy rating [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The implementation of new accounting standards for non-listed insurance companies starting January 1, 2026, is expected to lead to increased volatility in net profits and downward pressure on net assets [4]. - The shift to new standards will likely drive insurance capital towards OCI stocks, enhancing the stability of profit statements [4]. - The report highlights that the insurance sector is currently undervalued, with PEV ratios ranging from 0.58 to 0.94 and PB ratios from 0.94 to 2.19, indicating a historical low [4]. Summary by Sections New Accounting Standards - Non-listed insurance companies will adopt new accounting standards in 2026, with provisions for simplified processing for those facing difficulties [4]. - The transition is expected to result in a significant drop in revenue, increased profit volatility, and pressure on net assets [4]. Impact on Financial Metrics - For five early-adopting bank-affiliated insurance companies, revenue under the new standards decreased by 76% compared to the old standards, while net assets fell by 16% [5]. - In 2024, these companies are projected to see a substantial increase in net profits, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 1,192% [5]. Asset Allocation Trends - Since 2023, listed insurance companies have been increasing their allocation to FVOCI stocks, with a notable rise in the proportion of these investments [4]. - By the end of 2024, the combined FVOCI stock proportion for five listed insurance companies is expected to reach 31.9%, up by 9.4 percentage points from the beginning of the year [4]. Market Conditions - The report notes that the demand for savings remains strong, and regulatory guidance is expected to gradually lower liability costs, alleviating pressure from interest rate spreads [4]. - The stability of long-term bond yields around 1.65% is anticipated to ease the pressure on new fixed-income investment returns for insurance companies [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry, specifically focusing on the impact of HBM bandwidth restrictions on computing chips [1]. Core Insights - The ongoing HBM bandwidth restrictions from the U.S. pose significant challenges to China's computing chip industry, with export controls tightening since October 2022 and expected to escalate further through 2025 [1][10]. - The restrictions directly affect the performance of AI chips, leading to short-term computational pressures for domestic manufacturers [2][26]. - Long-term strategies for domestic firms include localization and technological innovation to mitigate the impact of these restrictions [5][30]. Summary by Sections 1. HBM Export Restrictions Overview - The U.S. began implementing HBM export restrictions in October 2022, aiming to limit China's access to advanced AI chip manufacturing capabilities [10]. - The restrictions have evolved to include specific technical parameters, effectively blocking access to the latest HBM technologies [11][12]. 2. Impact of HBM Bandwidth on AI Chip Performance - The performance of AI chips is heavily reliant on HBM bandwidth, with significant upgrades in bandwidth observed across generations of HBM technology [17]. - For instance, the latest HBM3e technology offers bandwidth improvements of nearly 4 times compared to previous generations [17]. 3. Domestic Response to HBM Restrictions - Domestic manufacturers are exploring various strategies to cope with the HBM restrictions, including reducing the number of HBM chips used and employing alternative technologies like Chiplet packaging [30][39]. - Software optimizations, such as low-parameter models and distributed training, are also being adopted to alleviate computational bottlenecks [35]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Cambricon and Haiguang Information, while also suggesting to keep an eye on companies like Aojie Technology and ZTE [5].

证券研究报告 · 宏观报告 · 宏观点评 宏观点评 20250612 如何"反内卷"?——关键在于定价权 在过去 5 年毛利率标准差的倒数低于 25%、介于 25%至 50%两组上市 公司中,区间股价涨跌幅为负的上市公司数量占比分别为 59.85%、 51.65%; ) 乐吴让莽 2025年06月12日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书:S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 刘子博 执业证书:S0600524120014 liuzb@dwza.com.cn 相关研究 《并购重组驶入"快车道"助力科技 企业估值提升》 2025-06-08 《融资需求回暖,5月社融增速或继 续抬升》 2025-06-08 具体而言: 通过对沪深上市公司计算1自 2020年至 2024年毛利率标准差的倒数 (反映定价权,数值越高越好),2自 2020/1/2 至 2024/12/31 区间股价 涨跌幅可得: 但在过去 5年毛利率标准差的倒数介于 50%至 100%、高于 100%两组 上市公司中,区间股价涨跌幅为负的上市公司数量占比分别为 39.23%、 41.69%。 ■ 风险提示:(1)对地方 ...

Group 1: CPI Trends and Influences - Since February 2025, CPI has experienced four consecutive months of negative growth, primarily driven by food and energy prices, while core CPI has shown a significant recovery since September 2024[1] - The average CPI year-on-year growth from February to May 2025 was -0.25%, with food contributing -0.24 percentage points and energy contributing -0.29 percentage points, while core CPI contributed +0.28 percentage points[1] - The CPI growth target was adjusted from 3% to 2% in March 2025, indicating a shift in policy focus from preventing high prices to preventing low prices[1] Group 2: Core CPI Components - Core CPI can be divided into three main components: core goods, housing services, and other services, with housing services being a significant drag on core CPI growth[1] - Housing services prices have averaged 0.07% since 2022, down from 1.74% from 2013 to 2022, contributing approximately 0.4 percentage points to the decline in core CPI growth[1] - Other services prices are closely linked to overall wage trends, with a potential for price increases driven by rising demand and improved corporate profits[1] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To boost core CPI, service consumption subsidies are recommended, which could increase core CPI by approximately 0.3 percentage points, offsetting the negative impact from declining housing service prices[1] - The expected core CPI growth for the second half of 2025 is projected to reach around 1.0% before slightly declining, remaining within the 0.6%-1.0% range[1] - The core goods price is expected to rise initially before a slight decline, while housing service prices are anticipated to remain stable around zero[1]

Group 1: Macro Policy Insights - The concept of "involution" refers to a situation where increased labor supply does not lead to higher productivity, resulting in complex organizational structures and increased labor intensity without output growth[8] - Since 2024, "anti-involution" has been a key focus of domestic policy, with significant events such as the implementation of the new "Regulations on Payment for Small and Medium Enterprises" and increased efforts to resolve government debts owed to enterprises[9] - Short-term measures to clear government debts may improve cash flow for construction, environmental, and IT sectors, but could limit local government bond capacity for physical work contributions[10] Group 2: Pricing Power Analysis - "Pricing power" is defined as the ability of a company to pass on cost increases to consumers, which is crucial for addressing "involution" and establishing a long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve government debt issues[11] - The report quantifies pricing power using the inverse of the standard deviation of gross profit margins over the past five years, indicating that stable profit margins are essential for transferring cost increases to consumers[11] - Data from A-share listed companies shows that companies with the weakest pricing power (inverse standard deviation of gross profit margin below 25%) had a negative stock price change ratio of 59.85%, while those with the strongest pricing power (above 100%) had a ratio of only 41.69%[18] Group 3: Statistical Findings - In the past five years, companies with an inverse standard deviation of gross profit margin between 50% and 100% had a negative stock price change ratio of 39.23%[18] - The analysis indicates that as pricing power increases, the proportion of companies experiencing negative stock price changes decreases significantly, with a drop of over 18 percentage points when comparing the weakest and strongest pricing power groups[12]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - Foshan City Gas is a leading player in the urban gas sector, transitioning towards a comprehensive energy service enterprise. The company has implemented an equity incentive plan, with stable cash dividends enhancing its safety margin [2]. - The company has diversified its energy sources and is benefiting from policy support, with significant growth expected in gas consumption and photovoltaic installation capacity [2]. - The company is expanding its supply chain, engineering services, and technology research and development, contributing to multiple revenue streams [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Transition to Comprehensive Energy Services - Foshan City Gas is evolving from traditional urban gas services to a comprehensive energy service model, backed by state-owned capital for stable development. The company has expanded its gas business beyond Foshan, acquiring 13 regional gas operation rights [14][20]. - The company has successfully implemented an equity incentive plan, exceeding performance targets from 2020 to 2024, with an average dividend payout ratio exceeding 70% [43][44]. 2. Energy Business Growth - The company has a diversified natural gas supply model, with a policy target of an 8.9% increase in natural gas consumption from 2025 to 2035. The company has a competitive advantage in Foshan and has secured multiple gas operation rights [2][47]. - The natural gas sales volume has shown a compound annual growth rate of 17.59% from 2018 to 2024, with a stable user structure primarily consisting of industrial and commercial users [56][58]. 3. Supply Chain and Technological Development - The company is leveraging its supply chain advantages, with significant revenue growth in its supply chain business, which includes bio-diesel and bonded fuel oil imports [8]. - The company is also focusing on technology research and development, including solid oxide fuel cells and hydrogen energy equipment manufacturing, to drive innovation [8]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 8.72 billion, 9.22 billion, and 9.76 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.3, 14.5, and 13.7 [2][8].