Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to HKD 2.79, indicating a potential decline of 3.1% from the current price of HKD 2.88 [2][17]. Core Insights - The company continues to face operational pressures in Q2, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027. The same-store sales for key brands have shown a decline, with the company adjusting its strategies to stabilize performance [6][19]. - Despite the challenges, there are signs of improvement in the core brand's performance, with expectations for marginal recovery in the second half of the year as store adjustments take effect [6][19]. - The company has reduced its store count by 51 in Q2, primarily due to structural adjustments of underperforming locations, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency moving forward [6][19]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for 2025 have been revised down to RMB 5,615 million, reflecting a decrease of approximately 6.6% from previous estimates. Net profit forecasts have also been adjusted down to RMB 153 million for 2025, a reduction of 31.3% [5][7][19]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a significant drop in earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, with a forecast of RMB 0.04, down from RMB 0.31 in 2023. The EPS is expected to recover gradually in subsequent years [5][19]. - The report highlights a stable gross margin of around 64.3% for 2025, although operating and net profit margins are projected to decline slightly [7][21].

Group 1: Company Insights - Seres (赛力斯) - Seres is accelerating its high-end transformation, with the Wanjie brand establishing a premium positioning that enhances profitability [1][2] - The Wanjie M9 model is leading sales in the 450,000 to 600,000 RMB range, reshaping the high-end SUV market, while the M8 model, launched in April, is expected to maintain steady monthly sales of around 15,000 units [1][2] - The gross margin for Seres reached 27.6% in Q1 2025, significantly outperforming the industry average, with expectations for the average selling price per vehicle to rise to 297,000 RMB by 2025 [2] Group 2: Company Insights - Nvidia (英伟达) - Nvidia's export restrictions have been relaxed, positively impacting its long-term growth prospects in the global GPU market [3][5] - The reopening of the Chinese market is seen as a critical factor for Nvidia's valuation, as it allows the company to target a significant market segment [3][5] - The trend of domestic computing chip replacements is expected to persist, but Nvidia's new products are anticipated to enhance market access due to improved network communication capabilities [3] Group 3: Company Insights - Alibaba (阿里巴巴) - Alibaba is increasing its investment in instant retail, which is expected to impact short-term profits but aims to drive cross-selling opportunities in traditional e-commerce [6][7] - The company has adjusted its EBITA forecasts down by 25% for FY2026 and 23% for Q1, while revenue predictions have been slightly reduced by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively [6] - Alibaba's cloud business is projected to see accelerating growth driven by AI demand, with a stable profit margin in the mid-single digits [6] Group 4: Industry Insights - Instant Retail - The instant retail sector is experiencing increased subsidy efforts, which are expected to pressure short-term profits but may stabilize valuations [7][8] - Daily order volumes for major platforms are projected to rise significantly in Q3, with estimates of 8.8 million for Meituan, 6.5 million for Taobao Flash Sale, and 1.8 million for JD's delivery service [7] - The competitive landscape is expected to see heightened investment in Q3, with potential profit adjustments for Meituan due to its operational capabilities [7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 180.5, indicating a potential upside of 38.4% from the current price of RMB 130.40 [4][17]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a significant transformation towards high-end electric vehicles, with its brand "Wenjie" establishing a strong presence in the luxury market, particularly against traditional luxury brands [5][10]. - The collaboration with Huawei is enhancing the company's technological capabilities and brand perception, driving profitability and market competitiveness [10][15]. - The expected launch of the updated M7 model is anticipated to strengthen the company's position in the competitive 250,000 to 350,000 RMB SUV market [5][14]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show substantial growth, with expected revenues of RMB 35,842 million in 2023, increasing to RMB 175,174 million by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 305% [9]. - Net profit is projected to turn positive in 2024, reaching RMB 5,946 million, with earnings per share expected to rise to RMB 3.94 [9]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to reach 27.1% by 2025, significantly higher than industry peers, driven by the high-end product mix [10][17]. Market Positioning - The high-end electric vehicle market in China is projected to grow, with sales expected to reach 2.6 million units by 2024, capturing over 23% of the total electric vehicle market [10][19]. - The company's Wenjie M9 model is leading sales in the 450,000 to 600,000 RMB segment, indicating a successful penetration into the luxury SUV market [10][33]. - The Wenjie brand is expected to capture over 50% of the company's total sales by 2025, with the M8 and M9 models driving this growth [17][39]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights the competitive dynamics in the high-end SUV market, where the Wenjie M9 is positioned against traditional luxury brands like BMW and Mercedes-Benz, offering superior technology and value [10][34]. - The company is leveraging its partnership with Huawei to enhance its product offerings, particularly in smart driving and intelligent cockpit features, setting it apart from competitors [15][32]. - The report notes a shift in consumer preferences towards high-tech and electric vehicles, benefiting domestic brands like Wenjie, which are rapidly gaining market share [19][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA US) with a target price of $165, indicating a potential upside of 37.2% from the current price of $120.23 [1][6][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that increased investment in flash sales is impacting profits, but the valuation is nearing a bottom. The focus on AI cloud services is expected to shift market sentiment positively [2]. - Revenue forecasts for FY26 have been slightly adjusted downwards by 0.9% for Q1 and 0.4% for the full year, while the market share for Taobao remains stable with a projected double-digit growth in CMR for Q1 [3][7]. - The report anticipates a continued acceleration in cloud business growth driven by AI demand, with a stable profit margin in the mid-single digits [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for FY26 is projected at RMB 1,039,034 million, reflecting a growth rate of 4.3%, down from the previous estimate of 5.2% [3][9]. - Adjusted EBITA for FY26 is expected to be RMB 213,506 million, a decrease of 13.9% from prior estimates, with a corresponding EBITA margin of 18.8% [3][9]. - The adjusted net profit for FY26 is forecasted at RMB 159,209 million, down 14.5% from previous estimates, with a net profit margin of 14.0% [3][9]. Segment Performance - The report provides a detailed breakdown of segment performance, with Taobao Group expected to generate RMB 449.8 billion in revenue for FY25, growing to RMB 496.9 billion in FY26 [8]. - The cloud intelligence group is projected to see revenue growth from RMB 118.0 billion in FY25 to RMB 141.8 billion in FY26, reflecting a strong demand for AI services [8]. - The report also notes that the local life group is expected to face challenges, with a projected revenue decline [8]. Market Data - Alibaba's market capitalization is approximately $268.8 billion, with a 52-week high of $147.57 and a low of $75.27 [5]. - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 41.8% [5]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the potential for Alibaba to recover and grow, particularly through its cloud services and e-commerce segments, despite short-term profit pressures from increased investments in flash sales [2][3][7].

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 即时零售补贴加大拖累短期利润，估值触底，推荐阿里>京东>美团 日单持续突破。3 季度即时零售平台加大补贴力度，继 7 月 5 日美团即时 零售宣布当日订单突破 1.2 亿（其中餐饮超 1 亿单）、7 月 7 日淘宝闪购日 订单超 8000 万（其中非餐饮订单 1300 万）后，7 月 12 日美团即时零售订 单突破 1.5 亿。参考过去 5 年日单均值/峰值比例下降趋势，考虑到本次峰 值突破相比往年花费更高的补贴投入，我们按美团外卖当季日均单量/峰 值比例约 65%，估算 2 季度美团即时零售/淘宝闪购（含饿了么）/京东外 卖 日 均 单 量 分 别 为 7700/5500/1100 万 单 ， 3 季 度 或 分 别 达 到 8800/6500/1800 万单。 长期来看，补贴收窄后单量稳定及 AOV 趋势仍有不确定性，短期补贴持 续加大将拖累今年内的利润表现： 2025 年 7 月 21 日 互联网行业 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 7/24 11/24 3/25 7/25 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% ...

Group 1: China Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) - The company announced a proposed acquisition of 95.09% of Lixin Pharmaceutical for a transaction price of up to $951 million, with a net payment of approximately $501 million after accounting for Lixin's estimated cash and bank deposits of $450 million on the closing date [1][2] - The acquisition will integrate Lixin's four differentiated technology platforms and eight clinical-stage drug candidates, including PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody and GPRC5D ADC, which have licensing agreements with Merck and AstraZeneca totaling $4 billion [2] - The target price has been raised to HKD 8.00 based on the acquisition and cost reduction efforts, reflecting a potential upside of 17.3% [1][2] Group 2: Flat Glass (6865 HK) - The company expects a significant quarter-on-quarter increase in earnings for 1H25, with a projected profit of RMB 230-280 million, and a midpoint increase of 41% for 2Q25 [3] - The photovoltaic glass industry has seen substantial production cuts since June, with inventory accumulation slowing down, and prices are expected to bottom out and recover starting in August [3] - The target price has been slightly adjusted to HKD 11.45 due to the weaker-than-expected price trends, maintaining a buy rating [3] Group 3: Securities Industry - The securities industry is experiencing strong growth in earnings, with a projected year-on-year increase of 65%-80% for the first half of 2025, averaging a growth of 72% [6][7] - The brokerage business is expected to rebound significantly due to a low base from the previous year, with self-investment income being a major driver of profit growth [6] - The sector's valuation remains attractive, with the A-share securities industry index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 1.38, indicating potential for further valuation increases supported by strong earnings growth [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant quarter-on-quarter increase in performance for Q2, with estimated earnings of RMB 230-280 million for 1H25, and RMB 120-170 million for Q2, representing a 41% increase from the previous quarter [2][7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in product prices following substantial industry production cuts, which are expected to lead to a bottoming out of prices for photovoltaic glass [7][8]. - The company has a production capacity of 2,000 tons of photovoltaic glass in Vietnam, which is significant for exports to the U.S. The report suggests monitoring the progress of trade agreements between the U.S. and Vietnam, as a reduction in tariffs could benefit the company's operations [7][8]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic supply side, citing recent government meetings aimed at regulating the industry and promoting the exit of outdated production capacity [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 21,524 million in 2023, RMB 18,683 million in 2024, RMB 16,543 million in 2025E, RMB 20,822 million in 2026E, and RMB 23,232 million in 2027E, with a year-on-year growth of 39.2% in 2023, followed by declines in 2024 and 2025, and recoveries in subsequent years [3][11]. - Net profit is projected to be RMB 2,760 million in 2023, dropping to RMB 1,007 million in 2024, and further to RMB 340 million in 2025E, before rebounding to RMB 1,828 million in 2026E and RMB 2,368 million in 2027E [3][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 1.17 in 2023, decreasing to RMB 0.43 in 2024, and RMB 0.15 in 2025E, with a significant recovery anticipated in 2026E and 2027E [3][11]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 7.8 in 2023, increasing to 21.2 in 2024, and then to 62.6 in 2025E, before stabilizing in the following years [3][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a year-to-date change of -8.88%, with a 52-week high of HKD 15.84 and a low of HKD 7.75 [6][10]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 10.68 million shares [6].

Industry Rating - The report maintains a "Leading" investment rating for the securities industry, indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a robust growth in Q2 earnings for the securities industry, with a year-on-year profit increase of 65%-80% for A-share listed brokers, averaging 72% [4][5]. - The average daily trading volume in A-shares for H1 2025 reached 1.36 trillion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 58.8% [4]. - The report emphasizes that the current valuation of the securities sector remains attractive, with the A-share securities industry index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 1.38, below the historical median of 1.52 [4]. Valuation Summary - The report provides a detailed valuation overview for key companies in the securities sector, including: - CITIC Securities (6030 HK): Buy rating, target price of 30.00 HKD, current price 25.65 HKD, with a potential upside of 17.0% [2][17]. - Huatai Securities (6886 HK): Buy rating, target price of 20.00 HKD, current price 16.40 HKD, with a potential upside of 22.0% [2][31]. - CICC (3908 HK): Buy rating, target price of 22.00 HKD, current price 18.94 HKD, with a potential upside of 16.2% [2][17]. - CITIC Construction Investment (6066 HK): Buy rating, target price of 14.00 HKD, current price 11.80 HKD, with a potential upside of 18.6% [2][17]. Performance Trends - The report notes that the performance of the securities industry has significantly improved compared to the previous year, with major indices showing positive trends [3][12]. - The report indicates that the IPO fundraising in A-shares has seen a recovery, with a total of 374 million RMB raised in H1 2025, marking a 15% year-on-year increase [4][10]. Financial Forecasts - The report projects a 19% year-on-year growth in overall profits for the securities industry in 2025, driven by favorable market conditions and strong performance from leading brokers [4][19]. - Specific forecasts for CITIC Securities include a projected net profit of 25.8 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting an 18.9% increase from the previous year [21][28]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the securities industry is well-positioned for continued growth, supported by strong earnings, favorable market conditions, and attractive valuations, maintaining a positive outlook for key players in the sector [4][19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Biologic Products (1177 HK) with a target price of HKD 8.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.3% from the current price of HKD 6.82 [4][10][15]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Lixin Pharmaceutical for USD 5 billion is expected to enhance the company's differentiated pipeline assets and technology platforms, leading to an upward revision of the target price [2][7]. - The integration of Lixin's four unique technology platforms is anticipated to accelerate the development of China Biologic's self-researched products, with significant potential contributions to revenue growth [7][10]. - The report highlights that Lixin has eight drug candidates in clinical stages, including promising candidates with licensing agreements worth up to USD 4 billion with major pharmaceutical companies [7][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for China Biologic Products are as follows: - 2023: RMB 26,199 million - 2024: RMB 28,866 million - 2025E: RMB 34,175 million (growth of 18.4%) - 2026E: RMB 38,706 million (growth of 13.3%) - 2027E: RMB 43,606 million (growth of 12.7%) [3][16]. - Net profit estimates are projected to increase from RMB 2,332 million in 2023 to RMB 5,340 million by 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [3][16]. - The report also notes an adjustment in the net profit forecast for 2025-2027, with an increase of 6-10% due to cost reduction efforts [7][9]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value of China Biologic Products at HKD 8.00 per share, based on projected free cash flows and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [10][11]. - The enterprise value is calculated at RMB 152,132 million, with a net cash position of RMB 2,478 million [10][11]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 113.13%, with a 52-week high of HKD 6.82 and a low of HKD 2.73 [6][10].

Group 1: Company Overview - TSMC's management has raised its full-year revenue growth guidance from approximately 25% to 30% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience in gross margin at 58.6%, surpassing previous expectations [1][2] - The company anticipates that the demand for AI chips will increase due to the U.S. government's relaxation of export restrictions, which is expected to drive the demand for advanced process technologies [2] - TSMC plans to ramp up production of its 2nm process technology in the second half of 2025, with expectations that the volume of 2nm wafers will exceed that of 3nm and 5nm wafers during the same period [2] Group 2: Financial Projections - The target price for TSMC has been raised to $280, reflecting a potential upside of 17.9% from the closing price of $237.56, based on a 26x average P/E ratio for 2025/26 [1][2] - Adjustments to earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been made, with new projections set at 59.5 and 65.5 New Taiwan Dollars, down from previous estimates of 60.8 and 69.6 New Taiwan Dollars [2] Group 3: Market Context - The report highlights that the recovery in consumer electronics is expected to be moderate due to trade uncertainties, but the high demand for AI is likely to sustain TSMC's pricing for 3nm and 5nm technologies [2] - The global semiconductor market is projected to see 30% of its capacity in processes below 2nm being produced in the U.S. in the long term [2]