1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the propylene industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of propylene in East China are basically balanced, but this balance is fragile, maintained by sacrificing the economics of propylene production [2][16] - Propylene production enterprises consider three major factors: economics, material balance, and customer supply guarantee, resulting in strong price elasticity on the demand side and weak price elasticity on the supply side [2][18] - The propylene industry chain's production plans have an anti - involution nature, which can repair the economics of loss - making downstream sectors and maintain the supply - demand balance [3][23] - Enterprises generally pay attention to propylene futures, but their participation levels are expected to vary greatly [4][24] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Purpose - Understand the production consideration factors of different propylene production enterprises - Understand the ins and outs of the propylene industry chain production process, including raw material sources, product customer composition, and pricing models - Understand the production plans and future outlooks of propylene production enterprises - Understand the participation levels and concerns of propylene production enterprises regarding propylene futures [15] 3.2 Research Core Conclusions - The supply - demand balance of propylene in East China is fragile, maintained by sacrificing the economics of propylene production, such as some MTO and PDH enterprises adjusting their operations [16] - Enterprises consider economics, material balance, and customer supply guarantee. Downstream focuses more on economics, upstream is more affected by material balance, and downstream with high long - term contract ratios is more affected by customer supply guarantee [18][19] - The production plans of the propylene industry chain have an anti - involution nature, which can repair downstream economics and maintain the supply - demand balance [23] - Enterprises are highly concerned about propylene futures, and their participation can be divided into four categories [24] 3.3 Research Detailed Situations 3.3.1 A Large Refining and Chemical Enterprise A - The company has three propylene production devices with a total capacity of over 1 million tons/year, and downstream products include acrylonitrile, propylene oxide, and acetone [25] - Currently, all devices except one acrylonitrile device are operating at full capacity. The refinery is overhauled every 3 - 4 years, and PDH is overhauled once a year [26] - The company prioritizes material balance and then production economics. Steam cracking and MTO devices rarely reduce their loads, while PDH load adjustment is more flexible [27] - Propane is 60% - 70% self - produced and 30% - 40% imported from the Middle East. The steam cracking raw material contains a small amount of externally purchased ethane [29] - When all devices are operating at full capacity, the company exports over 10,000 tons of propylene per month. Currently, it exports about 40,000 tons per month, mainly to surrounding enterprises and sold in East China and Southwest Shandong [30] - The long - term contract is priced based on the average price of Shandong and East China plus a premium or discount [31] - The exported propylene is all Type I, and the self - used propylene is of slightly lower quality [32] - The company has abandoned the plan to expand acrylic acid production and has no current expansion plans [33] 3.3.2 A PDH Enterprise B - The company has a 600,000 - ton/year PDH device, and downstream products include acetone, propylene oxide, and epichlorohydrin [35] - Currently, the PDH is under maintenance, and propylene oxide has stopped production. Phenol - ketone and epichlorohydrin are operating by externally purchasing propylene. PDH is overhauled every two years, and the main catalyst is replaced every four years [37][38] - The company will try to achieve full production and sales in the future and will attempt to digest products within the parent company group during poor market conditions [39] - Before the tariff, 80% of imported propane was from the United States, and now it is 20%. Propane is also imported from Canada and Australia. When externally purchasing propylene, pipeline transportation is preferred [41][42] - The company exports about 50,000 tons of propylene per year, with customers mainly from Jiangsu, Anhui, and Shandong. The downstream is mainly PP powder [44] - The pricing is based on the Zhenhai price when shipping south and the average price of East China and Shandong when shipping north or for short - distance transportation [45] - All propylene is Type I. Propylene oxide has the lowest quality requirement, and phenol - ketone has the highest requirement [46] - The company has abandoned the second - phase expansion plan [47] 3.3.3 An MTO Enterprise C - The company has two MTO devices with a total propylene capacity of about 500,000 tons/year, and downstream products include butanol and octanol [51] - Currently, butanol and octanol are operating at full capacity, and the small MTO device is operating at 70% capacity, while the large one is at 85%. In August, the MTO load will be reduced to the minimum [52] - The MTO process is in long - term loss, and the butanol and octanol profits are also poor this year. However, the company does not consider shutting down to avoid losing pipeline customers [54] - If operating at full capacity, the company will externally purchase about 2 million tons of methanol per year. The small device self - produces part of the methanol, and the large device purchases all externally [55] - When operating at full capacity, the company exports about 12,000 tons of propylene per month, mainly through pipeline and road transportation. The company values price rather than the type of customer [56] - Propylene is priced with reference to the chemical sales price plus a self - determined premium or discount, and ethylene is priced based on a comprehensive consideration of Northeast Asian and chemical sales prices [57] - The propylene produced by the company is all Type I, and the self - used propylene quality is not deliberately adjusted [58] - The company has no expansion plans for the propylene industry chain [59] 3.3.4 A Mixed Alkane Cracking Enterprise D - The company has a steam cracking device with a propylene capacity of about 150,000 tons/year, using a mixture of ethane and propane as raw materials [61] - Ethylene production is fixed, and propylene production depends on the feedstock. Currently, it is about 10,000 tons per month [62] - The ratio of ethane to propane is determined by economics. Currently, ethane accounts for about 70%. The device can use all propane but not all ethane [63] - The raw materials are all imported. Propane comes from the Middle East and the United States, and ethane is from the United States under a ten - year long - term contract. In case of a tariff war, the company will adjust its operations [64] - Propylene is mainly transported by pipeline to enterprises in the park for acrylic acid production, with a small amount sold externally by road [65] - The pricing is based on the average price of Zhenhai and Jinling. Each device is independently accounted for, and internal supply is also priced at the market price [66] - The company is building a PDH device with a capacity of nearly 1 million tons, but it plans to start operation after the downstream PP and butanol and octanol devices are completed in 2027 [67] 3.3.5 A PDH Enterprise E - The company has two PDH devices with a total capacity of about 1 million tons/year, and downstream products include acrylic acid, PP powder, butanol and octanol, and propylene oxide [70] - Currently, one line of PP powder has stopped production, and the rest are operating at full capacity. The company has a processing trade business for acrylic acid and esters for export, with a monthly volume of about 20,000 tons [71] - Currently, acrylic acid and butanol and octanol are profitable, PP breaks even, and propylene oxide is in loss. PDH is in marginal loss, but the company does not consider shutting down to avoid excessive external propylene purchases [72] - 90% of propane comes from the United States. In case of a tariff increase, the company will switch to Middle Eastern and Canadian sources. Currently, US goods are still more suitable [73] - The company externally purchases about 60,000 tons of propylene per month, mainly through shipping and road transportation. The imported propylene is about 300,000 tons per year [74] - The company requires Type I propylene for spot purchases. Type II propylene can be processed or used in the acrylic acid device [75] - The company plans to expand downstream acrylic acid production by nearly 300,000 tons/year, with no upstream expansion plans [76] 3.3.6 A PDH Enterprise F - The company has two PDH devices with a total capacity of about 1 million tons/year, and downstream products are polypropylene powder and modified materials [78] - Currently, one PDH device is operating at 98% - 104% capacity, and one line of powder has stopped production [79] - One PDH device was shut down due to poor economics and transportation issues. It is expected to restart next year due to device maintenance and expected profit improvement [80] - Propane is mainly purchased from the Middle East and the United States. Propylene is 80% purchased by shipping and 20% by road, with about half of the shipping being imports [81] - This year, there is no external propylene sales, and about 10,000 tons are externally purchased per month [82] - The company has no expansion plans, only considering downstream optimization [83] 3.3.7 A Large Refining and Chemical Enterprise G - The company has three production devices with a total capacity of about 3 million tons/year, and downstream products include polypropylene, acetone, acrylonitrile, and propylene oxide [86] - Currently, one cracking device is under maintenance, expected to end in August. PDH is operating at over 80% capacity and is overhauled every 2 - 3 years. The cracking device is overhauled every three years [87] - PDH operation is based on material balance, and economics is an important factor for downstream operation. The load of acrylonitrile is mainly adjusted in recent years [88] - Imported crude oil is mainly from Saudi Arabia, with Oman and Kuwait oil as supplements. PDH uses self - produced propane [90] - When all devices are operating at full capacity, the company can achieve propylene balance. After the acrylonitrile device is put into operation, there will be a shortage. Last year, the maximum external sales volume was 50,000 tons per month, and this year it is about 10,000 tons per month [91] - Propylene price is based on the listed price of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical plus a premium or discount [92] - The company has an acrylonitrile device to be put into operation at the end of this year, but it will probably start operation together with MMA and SAR devices in the second quarter of next year. There is also a subsidiary with a propylene capacity of about 1 million tons to be put into operation at the end of 2026 [93] 3.3.8 A PDH Enterprise H - The company has three PDH devices with a total capacity of about 2 million tons/year. The A base has two devices, and the B base has one device. Downstream products include PP and acrylonitrile [96] - Currently, all upstream and downstream devices are operating, and the PP load is high. One PDH device will be overhauled in September and restarted before National Day [97] - The enterprise calculates the full cost. PDH is in long - term loss and is subsidized by PP. If the externally purchased propylene is cheap and stable, the enterprise may shut down one PDH device [98] - The enterprise only accepts pure propane from the Middle East and the United States. To avoid tariff risks, it will adjust its purchases [100] - The enterprise needs to sell propylene externally, with about 20,000 tons per month from the A base and 30,000 tons per month from the B base. It will also purchase propylene if the price difference is appropriate and has exported propylene in the past [101][102] - The enterprise has some pricing power and affects the listed price in East China. The settlement with the B base is based on the local price [103] 3.4 Investment Suggestions - In the next three months, the propylene futures price will mainly follow the polypropylene futures price. Before November, the impact of spot price changes on futures prices will be weak, and the PL2601 price will be priced by subtracting the processing fee from PP2601 [106] - It is recommended to shrink the PP - PL processing fee when it is high. The current 550 yuan/ton is reasonable, and near the delivery month, a processing fee above 500 yuan/ton can be considered for shrinking [106] - The PL single - side price should be treated with an oscillatory mindset. The PP single - side price is under pressure from new production capacity but has limited further downward space due to the ability to replace recycled materials and the anti - involution market. PL may be slightly stronger than PP [107][108]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Central Political Bureau meeting maintained a stable tone, emphasizing the optimization of existing policies and some structural increments. The stock market is expected to remain at a relatively high risk - preference level due to the demand for a long - bull market [1]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and Powell downplayed the expectation of a September rate cut, leading to a significant rise in the US dollar index [2]. - The July Political Bureau meeting announced limited incremental policies, and the policy risks faced by the bond market significantly decreased. There is a chance to start trying to go long [3]. - The oil market continued to rise, while the EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased [6]. - The steel price declined significantly. The Political Bureau meeting did not give further expectations on "anti - involution", causing a decline in market sentiment. The long - term impact of "anti - involution" is worthy of attention, but short - term trading is difficult, and market fluctuations remain large [5]. - The grease market continued to fluctuate. The poor rapeseed harvest in Ukraine led to an increase in the price of rapeseed oil [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3%, better than expected. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, with internal differences. Gold prices fell significantly by more than 1%. Short - term gold lacks upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - This year, the preliminary budget for childcare subsidies is about 90 billion yuan, and the application will be fully open by August 31. The Political Bureau meeting emphasized policy continuity and stability, and the stock market is expected to remain at a high risk - preference level. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [15][16][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump announced a trade agreement with South Korea, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July. Powell downplayed the September rate - cut expectation, and the US dollar index rose significantly. It is recommended that the US dollar index will rebound in the short term [20][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed continued to hold off on rate changes, with two voting members supporting rate cuts. The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3%, better than expected. Market risk preference declined slightly. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction due to economic data falling short of expectations [24][25][26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The July Political Bureau meeting highly evaluated the economic development in the first half of the year, and the incremental policies were limited. The policy risks faced by the bond market decreased. The long - end variety spread may rise moderately. It is recommended to start trying to go long [27][28][30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal auction in Linfen mostly continued to rise. Coke started the third round of price increases. The short - term price may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to position management [31][32][33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The supply of imported soybeans in China is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is rising. The US soybean产区 has good weather, and the market is worried about US soybean exports. It is recommended to view the internal and external futures prices with a volatile mindset [34][35][36]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia is expected to export more than 5 million tons of palm oil to India. The grease market continued to fluctuate. Rapeseed oil rose due to the poor rapeseed harvest in Ukraine. It is recommended to buy on dips [37][38][39]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Political Bureau meeting emphasized capacity governance. Steel prices declined, and market sentiment slipped. The short - term market may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to be cautious [40][41][42]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch startup rate increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to remain in low - level volatility [43][44]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port corn spot price remained stagnant. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. It is recommended to hold short positions in new crops [45]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The northern port steam coal price remained stable. The short - term coal price is expected to continue to fluctuate due to factors such as rainfall and environmental inspections [46][47]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Brazil's J&F Group plans to invest over $700 million in an iron ore project. The iron ore price continued to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The trading limits of some polysilicon futures contracts were adjusted. The spot transaction average price increased. The short - term polysilicon price is expected to run between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips [49][50][51]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of silicon coal increased. The industrial silicon production may increase. The price is expected to run between 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [52][53][54]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Vale Indonesia plans to develop a nickel project. The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warrant decreased. The short - term raw material price is weakening, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [55][56][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Rio Tinto expanded its lithium business in Quebec. The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures decreased after position limits. It is not recommended to short too early, and long positions need to wait for safer points [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - An energy storage project using lead - carbon batteries started. The Shanghai lead futures maintained a weak and volatile pattern. In the short term, pay attention to buying on dips and manage positions well [60][62][63]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Grupo Mexico's second - quarter zinc concentrate production increased by 56% year - on - year. The Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [64][66][67]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen LPG increased. The US C3 inventory increased. Pay attention to the release of the August CP [68][69]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA US commercial crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices continued to rise, supported by short - term geopolitical risks. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and strong [70][71]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate [72][73]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp varied. The futures price of pulp decreased. It is expected to follow the commodity market correction [74][75]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price was range - bound. The futures price fluctuated. It is expected to follow the commodity market correction [76][77]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price of Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical remained stable. The futures price increase declined. The short - term market may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [78]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. The futures price increase declined. It is recommended to operate cautiously on a single - side basis and focus on arbitrage strategies [79]. 3.2.22 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The proportion of West African dry bulk freight volume soared. The container freight rate price inflection point was confirmed. It is recommended to pay attention to the decline slope of the freight rate [80][82][83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for rebar and hot-rolled coil is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current steel downturn cycle has similarities and differences with the previous one. The current cycle is more driven by demand decline, with a larger demand drop but a less severe overcapacity issue. The price center is still higher due to increased demand and emerging market demand [2][27][46] - The main policy focus of the previous supply - side reform included capacity reduction, supply control, new capacity control, environmental protection improvement, and price control. However, there were some implementation issues [49][51][56] - Potential supply - side policies for the current "anti - involution" in the steel industry may include promoting ultra - low emission transformation and incorporating the industry into the carbon emission trading market. These are long - term tasks, and short - term over - trading is not recommended. Market turnaround depends on demand recovery [4][78][79] Summary by Directory 1. Comparison of the Current and Previous Steel Downturn Cycles - **Price decline and structure**: The decline time of the current cycle is similar to the previous one. The average price decline of finished products is slightly higher, while the decline of iron ore and coking coal is relatively smaller. The price center is higher than the previous low. The current cycle compresses steel mill profits earlier, and the profit recovers in 2024 - 25 [15][19] - **Demand and overcapacity**: The current cycle is triggered by the decline in real estate demand. The domestic demand for crude steel has been in negative growth since 2021. Although the demand decline is larger, the total demand is on a higher level, and the overcapacity is less severe than the previous cycle [20][27] - **Demand structure**: In the current cycle, the proportion of manufacturing and export demand has increased, playing a role in hedging demand decline. The external demand for manufacturing is strong, supported by overseas demand and emerging market growth. The overseas steel demand also shows a structural increase in emerging markets [28][31][33] 2. Review of the Previous Supply - Side Structural Reform Policies and Market Changes - **Policy background and path**: The previous supply - side reform aimed to solve problems such as overcapacity, high leverage, and real estate inventory. The main policies included capacity reduction (1 - 1.5 billion tons of steel and 5 billion tons of coal), supply control, new capacity control, environmental protection improvement, and price control [47][49][51] - **Market performance**: The steel price performance during the previous reform can be divided into four stages: policy - expectation - driven rise and fall (2015.12 - 2016.4), supply - reduction - driven rise (2016.5 - 2016.12), capacity - reduction - driven profit expansion (2017), and supply - elasticity - increase and narrowing profit (2018 - 2019) [57][61][71] 3. Potential Policy Directions for the Current "Anti - Involution" in the Steel Industry - The current market environment is similar to the previous one, with profit compression and a certain degree of market - based clearance. The priority of promoting supply - side reform this year is not high, but "anti - involution" may be related to anti - deflation [72] - Potential capacity - reduction directions include eliminating blast furnaces below 1000 cubic meters and promoting ultra - low emission transformation in 2026. Supply - control may be achieved by incorporating the industry into the carbon emission trading market, which is a long - term task. Market turnaround depends on demand recovery [73][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers various sectors including finance and commodities, analyzing the impact of economic events and policies on different assets. In the financial sector, it discusses the influence of trade negotiations, GDP forecasts, and central bank policies on gold, stock indices, and bonds. In the commodity sector, it assesses factors such as production, demand, and geopolitical events affecting coal, iron ore, agricultural products, and energy - related commodities. Overall, it provides investment suggestions based on the current market situation and future expectations in each sector [12][26][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 6 - month JOLTs job openings were 7.437 million, slightly lower than expected. Sino - US trade talks are optimistic, and the extension of tariffs is negative for gold. The dollar index is strong, and gold lacks the momentum to break through and rise in the short term. It is recommended to expect short - term gold to remain in a consolidation pattern with increased volatility [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The IMF raised China's 2025 GDP growth rate to 4.8%. Sino - US trade talks led to a 90 - day extension of the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs, which is beneficial for the stock market. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [14][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump may impose 20% - 25% tariffs on India. The third round of Sino - US trade talks ended with tariff extensions but no significant progress in other aspects, causing the dollar index to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended that the dollar index will oscillate at a high level in the short term [17][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Sino - US trade talks will continue to extend the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs. The US consumer confidence index in July rebounded, but the job openings in June decreased slightly, and the market is cautious about future economic data. It is recommended to be aware of the risk of pullbacks [21][22][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's income perception index declined in the second quarter. The central bank conducted a 449.2 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 234.4 billion yuan. It is recommended to go long after the market negatives are mostly cleared in early August [25][26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 25, the price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable. Downstream demand was weak, and the market was in a stalemate. It is recommended to pay attention to the change in daily consumption growth rate [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Anglo American's iron ore production in the second quarter of 2025 increased year - on - year, and sales were slightly different. The iron ore price oscillated at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see for now [29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's B50 biofuel plan may increase palm oil consumption by 3 million tons. The EU will allow Indonesian palm oil to enter the market with zero tariffs. It is recommended not to short, be cautious when going long, and choose P2601 and Y2601 contracts, while paying attention to China's actual soybean oil exports [30][31][32]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - New cotton in Xinjiang has entered the boll - setting stage with good growth. Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was 21.7% as of July 26. US cotton growth was slightly slower, and the excellent - good rate declined. It is recommended that the 9 - month contract may be weak in the short term, and the 1 - month contract may oscillate and adjust, while paying attention to Sino - US trade negotiation results [33][34][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tiankang Bio's pig - raising cost dropped to 13 yuan/kg at the beginning of 2025. It is recommended to use a reverse - spread strategy [37][38]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The CMI index in July increased by 5.54% year - on - year. Steel prices rose, mainly driven by expectations of the Politburo meeting and environmental protection restrictions during the parade. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term as the market may fluctuate greatly [39][40][41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The auction price of coking coal in the Lvliang market increased. After the previous sharp rise in the futures market, it has recently fallen to digest some sentiment. Coke enterprises have started the third round of price increases. It is recommended to pay attention to position management [42][43][44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Peru is considering approving a 6 - billion - dollar mining project. The EU and the US will establish a metal alliance. The US copper price premium declined. It is recommended to go long on dips unilaterally and pay attention to the internal - external reverse - spread strategy [45][46][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Jiangte Motor's actual controller changed, and the stock resumed trading. After the position limit took effect, the speculative sentiment receded. It is recommended not to short too early on the left side and wait for a safer point to go long [49][50]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Adriatic Metals' silver production in the second quarter increased by 23% quarter - on - quarter. The lead market oscillated weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term callback buying opportunities and manage positions well, and wait and see for arbitrage [51][52][53]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Newmont and Fresnilloplc's zinc concentrate production increased quarter - on - quarter. The zinc market fundamentals weakened, but the decline led to better spot trading. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to the mid - term monthly spread positive - spread opportunity for arbitrage, and wait and see for internal - external trading [54][55][58]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - PT Vale obtained a 2.2 - million - ton nickel ore quota. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies in the medium term [59][60][61]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Trump will give Russia 10 days to reach a cease - fire agreement. API crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices rose, and the short - term risk premium may increase. It is recommended that the short - term trend is oscillating and strengthening [62][63][65]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 29, the CEA closing price was 73.32 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous day. It is recommended that CEA will oscillate in the short term [66][67]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 29, the caustic soda market in Shandong was stable. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was stable. It is recommended that the caustic soda price may rise slightly but with limited increase [68][69]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp showed different trends among different varieties. It is recommended to be aware of the risk of capital speculation on low - valuation pulp [70][71]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price weakened. It is recommended to be aware of the risk of capital speculation on low - valuation PVC [72]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot market was quiet, and the basis was weak. Supply and demand were in a tight - balance state. It is recommended that the PTA price may oscillate slightly stronger in the short term with increased volatility [73][74]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - In July 2025, the urea开工 load rate decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to view the urea market as oscillating in the short term [75][76]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Sinopec raised the pure benzene listing price by 100 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - sentiment changes for styrene and view pure benzene as oscillating in the short term [77][78]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export quotes were mostly stable, with some slightly decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee by going long on dips [79][80]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On July 29, the soda ash market in South China was stable. The futures price continued to fall. It is recommended to operate carefully and wait for policy guidance [81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On July 29, the price of float glass in Hubei remained unchanged. The futures price dropped significantly. It is recommended to operate cautiously on the long - short side and focus on the long - glass short - soda - ash arbitrage strategy [82][83][84].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Key Container Ports and Critical Hub Monitoring 20250729 [1] - Researcher: Lan Xi from the Black and Shipping Department of Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute [1] - Qualification Number: F03086543 (Practice Qualification), Z0016590 (Investment Consultation) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In Asia, the superposition of typhoon season and export peak has continuously pressured the operation of domestic ports. Southeast Asian ports may face continuous congestion due to increased transfer demand. In Europe, ports will face continuous pressure of rising congestion in the next two months, but the overall congestion level is lower than the same period last year. In North America, the scale of ships in port has slightly increased, and the congestion level is generally controllable [2] 3. Data Analysis by Region Asia - **Port Operation Data**: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships in Yangshan, Waigaoqiao, Ningbo, Qingdao, Singapore, and Port Klang are 15.7h/24.7h, 19.0h/20.7h, 11.2h/29.1h, 13.8h/44.3h, 4.5h/30.6h, and 10.2h/28.0h respectively. The average turnover time of Yangshan, Ningbo, and Yantian ports is about 1.8 days, 1.7 days, and 1.6 days respectively. The average time of ships in port in Singapore and Port Klang is 1.4 days and 1.6 days respectively [2] - **Congestion Situation**: Typhoons may affect ship berthing and operations in Ningbo and Shanghai ports, increasing the pressure of rising congestion. Port Klang's congestion has improved month - on - month but remains high [2] - **In - port Duration**: The latest in - port durations of Yangshan, Ningbo, Singapore, and Port Klang are 44.2h, 41.6h, 33.5h, and 38.3h respectively. The month - on - month changes are - 4.0h, 1.8h, 0.8h, and - 1.8h respectively [6] Europe - **Port Operation Data**: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships in Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Bremen, and Valencia are 9.2h/46.3h, 3.8h/37.9h, 16.1h/49.1h, 26.7h/53.3h, and 14.3h/34.2h respectively. The average in - port durations of Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Bremen are about 1.79 days, 2.1 days, 2.8 days, and 3.8 days respectively [2] - **Congestion Situation**: Problems such as summer vacations, labor shortages, railway construction in Germany, and low water levels in the Rhine will gradually emerge in the next two months, and ports will face continuous pressure of rising congestion. The overall congestion level is lower than the same period last year [2] - **In - port Duration**: The latest in - port durations of Rotterdam, Hamburg, Felixstowe, and Valencia are 49.8h, 67.3h, 41.5h, and 39.4h respectively. The month - on - month changes are - 6.0h, 7.8h, - 12.0h, and - 2.4h respectively [6] North America - **Port Operation Data**: The weekly average waiting time/berthing time of ocean - going container ships in Long Beach, Los Angeles, Tacoma, New York, Savannah, Norfolk, and Houston are 0h/107.9h, 3.4h/109.3h, 0h/69.5h, 1.1h/45.6h, 26.0h/36.8h, 6.5h/21.9h, and 15.2h/48.2h respectively [2] - **Congestion Situation**: The scale of ships in port in the US has slightly increased, and the in - port duration of some ports has slightly increased month - on - month, but the overall congestion level is controllable [2] - **In - port Duration**: The latest in - port durations of Long Beach, Los Angeles, New York, and Savannah are 113.1h, 103.4h, 47.1h, and 68.3h respectively. The month - on - month changes are - 1.5h, - 5.4h, 0.9h, and 23.5h respectively [6] 4. Large - ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - **Large - ship Arrival**: The arrival situations of large - scale container ships in Yangshan, Ningbo, and Singapore ports are monitored, including different ship types (1.2 - 1.7w, 1.7w+). The arrival situations of 1.2w+ container ships of different alliances (Gemini, OA, PA + MSC) in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean are also monitored [47][50][54] - **Key Hub**: The passage situations of container ships at the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal are monitored, including the number of arrivals and passage volumes [52][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial sector, the short - term strong US dollar suppresses gold prices, the US dollar index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, and the bond market sentiment will improve this week but with continued market fluctuations. The implementation of the national parenting subsidy system is expected to drive a 0.2% increase in social retail. - In the commodity sector, the supply and demand of various commodities vary. For example, the supply of coking coal is slightly tight, the supply of soybeans is expected to be abundant, and the supply of some energy - chemical products is affected by factors such as production restrictions and inventory changes [13][17][20]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury plans to borrow $1.007 trillion from July to September, $450 billion more than the April forecast. Gold prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar, and the market is volatile this week. Short - term, gold is in a volatile state, and there is a risk of decline [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Thailand expects a favorable trade agreement from the US after the cease - fire with Cambodia. Trump may impose a 15% - 20% tariff on imports from countries without a separate trade agreement and shortens the cease - fire deadline for Russia. The US dollar index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The national parenting subsidy system will provide an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child. It is expected to increase annual fiscal expenditure by over 110 billion yuan and drive a 0.2% increase in social retail. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock index varieties [19][20][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US July Dallas Fed business activity index is 0.9, better than expected. The US Treasury raises its Q3 borrowing forecast. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, but there is a risk of correction [22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. The bond market sentiment will improve this week, but there are still uncertainties, and it is recommended to enter and exit quickly when going long [24][25]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Environmental inspections in Wuhai limit coal production, and coking coal supply is tight. Coke prices are rising, but there are risks due to rapid price increases. It is necessary to manage positions [26][27]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - US soybean good - to - excellent ratings rise to 70%, and Brazil's July soybean exports are expected to exceed last year. Domestic soybean meal inventory increases. The futures price is expected to be volatile, and focus on the Sino - US talks this week [28][30]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of July 25, soybean oil inventory decreases slightly, and palm oil inventory increases. Malaysian palm oil production increases in July. The market is expected to be under pressure, but palm oil has support. Soybean oil prices are hard to rise due to sufficient supply [31][32][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Guangtang Group aims for a sugarcane order area of 2.18 million mu by the end of 2025. Pakistan bids to buy 100,000 tons of sugar. The Sino - Thai AEO mutual recognition agreement will be implemented on August 1. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile, and focus on the resistance level of 5,900 yuan [35][36][38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch spot prices are stable. Supply pressure increases due to the resumption of some enterprises' production. Starch enterprises' losses may continue or expand [38][39][40]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Northeast China is expected to have more precipitation in the next 10 days, increasing waterlogging risks. Corn futures show differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop contracts and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's transportation fixed - asset investment in H1 is 1.6474 trillion yuan. Steel prices decline due to changes in market sentiment. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term [42][43][44]. 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Northern port steam coal prices are stable. Coal consumption growth slows down, and supply is slightly weak. Pay attention to coal consumption growth and port inventory changes [45]. 2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company plans to develop an iron ore project. Iron ore prices follow the decline of coal prices. The fundamentals may weaken later. It is recommended to reduce positions [46][47]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - An aluminum plant in Xinjiang's alumina tender price rises. The domestic alumina surplus is increasing, and the futures price falls after rising. It is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Zimbabwe makes progress, and a lithium refinery project in Morocco is advancing. The futures exchange limits positions, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory for reverse arbitrage [50][51][52]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Turkey raises the import reference price of some photovoltaic products. Polysilicon prices are affected by the market. The price is expected to be between 41,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and consider buying on dips [53][55][56]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of silicon coal in some areas rises. Industrial silicon production increases, and inventory changes. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities or sell out - of - the - money call options [57][58][59]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increases. The nickel price is affected by market sentiment. In the short - term, it may be volatile, and in the medium - term, it is expected to decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [60][61][62]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - A lead smelting system in Guizhou starts production, and lead ingot social inventory changes little. The lead price is affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term and wait and see for arbitrage [63][64][66]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Bolivian zinc concentrate production decreases in May, and domestic zinc ingot inventory increases. The zinc price is affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, pay attention to positive calendar spread arbitrage, and wait and see for cross - border trading [67][68][69]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - A refinery's LPG - related device is about to start. The LPG price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [70][71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia temporarily bans gasoline exports. Oil prices rebound. The market expects OPEC+ to increase production. The oil price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [73][74]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventory increases, and social inventory decreases slightly. The asphalt demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile [75][76][77]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene port inventory increases. The styrene price is affected by the macro - environment. Pay attention to macro - sentiment changes [77][78][79]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Urea prices in North China decline. The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [80][81][82]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices decline. The PX price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the long - term, but with large short - term fluctuations [83][84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - PTA prices decline. The PTA price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, but with large short - term fluctuations [85][86]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash inventory decreases. The soda ash price drops sharply. The market is volatile, and it is recommended to wait for policy guidance [87]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market change. The glass price drops, and the market sentiment is weak. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [88][89]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export and domestic prices decrease. Bottle chip production decreases, but demand is weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand processing margins on dips [90][91][92].

1. Report Core View - W30's average loading rate of the European route fleet departing from China was 90.8%, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period. The loading rate of the European route fleet departing from Asia in W28 was 98.8%, a slight 0.5% increase [7]. - The monthly average weekly capacity in August was 315,000 TEU, higher than the July average of 302,000 TEU. The average capacity in the first half - month was 299,000 TEU, and 331,000 TEU in the second half - month. The monthly average weekly capacity in September was 308,000 TEU, higher than the previous statistical value [11]. - There were 5 late - departing sailings from W30 to W31, including 2 from OA and 3 from MSC. The risk of delays in subsequent weeks remains high, but the delay forecast is expected to improve starting from W34 [18]. - The SCFIS (European route) index closed at 2316.56 points, a 3.5% decline from the previous period. The peak price of this peak season has basically been confirmed [19]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 European Route Loading Rate Tracking - W30's average loading rate of the European route fleet departing from China was 90.8%, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period (last period: 92.7%). W28's loading rate of the European route fleet departing from Asia was 98.8%, a slight 0.5% increase from the previous period. The loading difference between Asia and China was about 6.1%, higher than the average level from April to May. The increase in transit demand led to an expansion of the loading rate difference [7]. - OA's loading rate departing from China was 91.5%, with a relatively large decline from the previous period. PA and MSC's loading rate departing from China was 93.7%, showing a decline but still at a high level. Gemini's loading rate departing from China was 87.6%, a slight 0.6% increase [7]. 2.2 European Route Sailing Schedule and Capacity - The monthly average weekly capacity in August was 315,000 TEU, higher than the July average of 302,000 TEU. The average capacity in the first half - month was 299,000 TEU, and 331,000 TEU in the second half - month. The capacities in W32 and W34 were as high as 329,000 and 358,000 TEU respectively. The monthly average weekly capacity in September was 308,000 TEU, higher than the previous statistical value [11]. - The FAL7 route added 4 sailings in September, all with a ship type of about 13,000 - 14,000 TEU. For the LION route from September to early October, 4 sailings of the originally planned 12,000 - 17,000 TEU ship type were replaced with over - 17,000 TEU ultra - large ships transferred from other routes [11]. - MSC's ALBATROS route cancelled its Shanghai call starting from W28, and the BRITANNIA route cancelled its Ningbo call and added a call at the last port of the SWAN route, Antwerp. The sailing delay is expected to improve significantly after October [11]. 2.3 Sailing Delay and Spot Market Overview - There were 5 late - departing sailings from W30 to W31, including 2 from OA and 3 from MSC. The risk of delays in subsequent weeks remains high, but the delay forecast is expected to improve starting from W34 [18]. - The SCFIS (European route) index closed at 2316.56 points, a 3.5% decline from the previous period. The peak price of this peak season has basically been confirmed [19]. - The actual departing capacity of the European route from Shanghai Port in W30 was 263,000 TEU, of which 41% were delayed sailings from W29. By alliance, the weights of Gemini, OA, and PA + MSC were 16%, 44%, and 40% respectively. Gemini's proportion remained low, while the weights of PA and MSC increased [19]. 2.4 Sailing Delay Observation and Early Warning - In W30, OA had 2 late - departing ships, and MSC had 3. The risk of late - departing ships from W31 - W33 remains high, and the delay forecast is expected to improve starting from W34 [18]. - Warnings are issued for specific routes of different alliances in different weeks, such as OA's AE1 and AE3, Gemini's FAL3, CES, and NE3, and MSC&PA's FE4, FE6, and BRITANNIA [26][28]. 2.5 Related Port Congestion Data - In China, the average turnover time of Yangshan Port is about 1.8 days, Ningbo Port about 1.7 days, and Yantian Port about 1.6 days. Due to the overlap of the typhoon season and the export peak season, domestic port operations are under continuous pressure [34]. - In Southeast Asia, the congestion at Port Klang has improved compared to the previous period but remains at a high level. With the increase in transit demand, port congestion in Southeast Asia may continue. The average time of ships in port at Singapore Port is 1.4 days, and at Port Klang is 1.6 days [34]. - In Europe, problems such as summer vacations, labor shortages at ports, German railway construction, and low water levels in the Rhine are expected to gradually emerge in the next two months. European ports will continue to face the pressure of increasing congestion. Currently, the overall congestion level is lower than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the development trends of congestion at German ports and Rotterdam Port [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for methanol is "Bullish" [8] Core Viewpoints - Methanol is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern from July to August. Recent maintenance has been implemented, and downstream maintenance is less than expected, leading to a certain degree of contraction in the overall supply. Additionally, the rising coal prices provide support to the cost side [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Review: Macro Sentiment + Cost Support + Maintenance Boost Prices - Since the end of June, the methanol price center has increased month-on-month. As of July 24, the closing price of the main contract has increased by about 4% compared to the end of June, mainly due to macro sentiment, concentrated maintenance, and rising coal prices [16]. 2. Third - Quarter Maintenance Expectations May Provide Strong Support to the Supply Side - July - August is the traditional off - season for methanol, with many planned maintenance activities. Due to high profits in coal - to - methanol production in the first half of the year, some maintenance plans were postponed, making the third quarter a concentrated maintenance season. The national methanol operating rate dropped from 78% at the end of June to about 71% in mid - July. The maintenance in July is expected to affect the output by 800,000 tons, and the estimated domestic methanol output in July is 7.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 10% [3][21]. 3. Strengthening Macro Sentiment, the Cost Side is Expected to be Effectively Boosted - The "Anti - involution" policy has led to a high - spirited sentiment in the commodity market, which has spread to the coal industry. Coal prices, represented by coking coal, have rebounded rapidly. As of July 24, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,232 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of over 70% from the bottom of 709 yuan in mid - June [23]. - Coal price increase may drive the repair of the methanol cost side, but it is expected to have limited impact on the operating rate. If the coal price center moves up in the second half of the year, the methanol cost side may be strongly supported, and the methanol valuation may be improved. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol production may be suppressed to some extent, the overall operating rate is expected to decline slightly [24]. 4. The Health of the Demand Side Currently Remains Stable, but the Transmission Effect after Cost Increase Needs Attention - In summer, the downstream of methanol is in the traditional off - season, but there is a certain stagger between downstream maintenance and methanol production. Except for formaldehyde, other downstream sub - industries have no large - scale maintenance in July, and the overall operating rate has remained stable month - on - month (with a slight decline due to seasonal factors). - For the traditional demand side, the overall operating rate depends on the demand of each terminal market. For the MTO side, the profit of integrated devices may decline, and attention should be paid to the subsequent operating status of MTO. Overall, the cost side is less likely to affect the downstream operating rate, and more attention should be paid to the terminal market demand feedback [29]. 5. Investment Advice - Methanol is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern from July to August. With recent maintenance and less - than - expected downstream maintenance, the supply side is contracting, and the rising coal prices support the cost side, so it is considered strong in the short term [6][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk appetite remains high, with most stock markets rising, and most bond yields increasing. The US Treasury yield slightly dropped to 4.39%. The US dollar index fell 0.85% to 97.6, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices dropped 0.4% to $3337 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 14.9, the spot commodity index rose, and Brent crude oil dropped 2.4% to $69.4 per barrel [1][5][9] - The US economic data is mixed but still shows some resilience. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in July, but internal differences are increasing. The ECB also kept rates unchanged in July, and the market's expectation of an ECB rate cut this year has decreased [2][11] - The short - term market risk appetite will continue to be relatively optimistic, and the US dollar index will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term with continued downward pressure in the medium term [37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite is high, most stock markets rise, most bond yields increase, and the US Treasury yield slightly drops to 4.39%. The US dollar index falls 0.85% to 97.6, most non - US currencies appreciate, gold prices drop 0.4% to $3337 per ounce, the VIX index drops to 14.9, the spot commodity index rises, and Brent crude oil drops 2.4% to $69.4 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise. The S&P 500 index rises 1.46%, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 1.67%, the Hang Seng Index rises 2.27%, and the Nikkei 225 index rises 4.11%. The US economic data is mixed, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in July but with internal differences, and the ECB also keeps rates unchanged [10][11] - The domestic stock market sentiment is high, the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through 3600 points, and the market style rotates rapidly [13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rise, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield slightly drops to 4.39%. Eurozone government bonds mostly rise, and emerging - market bond yields mostly recover. The US economic data is okay, the ECB pauses rate cuts, and bond yields still have room to rise [14][18][20] - The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield rises to 1.739%, the Sino - US interest rate spread inversion narrows to 264bp, and the domestic bond market shows a significant correction [22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index falls 0.85% to 97.6, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Offshore RMB rises 0.19%, the euro rises 0.98%, the pound rises 0.16%, the yen rises 0.75%, the Swiss franc rises 0.74%, the Mexican peso rises 1.07%, and the Korean won, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and ringgit all rise [27][29][30] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold drops 0.4% to $3337 per ounce. After the US - Japan agreement, the market expects the US - EU agreement to be reached. The US economic data supports the Fed to continue pausing rate cuts, and the ECB also pauses rate cuts in July. Gold should beware of correction risks [31][33][34] - Brent crude oil drops 2.4% to $69.4 per barrel. The crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, and the spot commodity index rises, but the market starts to fluctuate sharply on Friday [34] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US - Japan trade agreement is reached. The US will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, lower than the previously threatened 25% level. Japan needs to invest $550 billion in the US, with 90% of the profits going to the US [3][35][36] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - From July 27th to 30th, there will be high - level China - US trade negotiations in Sweden. There are also important economic data releases such as the US 5 - month housing price index, 6 - month job vacancies, and 7 - month consumer confidence. The Fed and the BoJ will announce their July interest - rate meeting decisions, and the US will release its 7 - month non - farm payroll report [38]