Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk appetite remains high, with most stock markets rising, and most bond yields increasing. The US Treasury yield slightly dropped to 4.39%. The US dollar index fell 0.85% to 97.6, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices dropped 0.4% to $3337 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 14.9, the spot commodity index rose, and Brent crude oil dropped 2.4% to $69.4 per barrel [1][5][9] - The US economic data is mixed but still shows some resilience. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in July, but internal differences are increasing. The ECB also kept rates unchanged in July, and the market's expectation of an ECB rate cut this year has decreased [2][11] - The short - term market risk appetite will continue to be relatively optimistic, and the US dollar index will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term with continued downward pressure in the medium term [37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite is high, most stock markets rise, most bond yields increase, and the US Treasury yield slightly drops to 4.39%. The US dollar index falls 0.85% to 97.6, most non - US currencies appreciate, gold prices drop 0.4% to $3337 per ounce, the VIX index drops to 14.9, the spot commodity index rises, and Brent crude oil drops 2.4% to $69.4 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise. The S&P 500 index rises 1.46%, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 1.67%, the Hang Seng Index rises 2.27%, and the Nikkei 225 index rises 4.11%. The US economic data is mixed, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in July but with internal differences, and the ECB also keeps rates unchanged [10][11] - The domestic stock market sentiment is high, the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through 3600 points, and the market style rotates rapidly [13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rise, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield slightly drops to 4.39%. Eurozone government bonds mostly rise, and emerging - market bond yields mostly recover. The US economic data is okay, the ECB pauses rate cuts, and bond yields still have room to rise [14][18][20] - The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield rises to 1.739%, the Sino - US interest rate spread inversion narrows to 264bp, and the domestic bond market shows a significant correction [22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index falls 0.85% to 97.6, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Offshore RMB rises 0.19%, the euro rises 0.98%, the pound rises 0.16%, the yen rises 0.75%, the Swiss franc rises 0.74%, the Mexican peso rises 1.07%, and the Korean won, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and ringgit all rise [27][29][30] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold drops 0.4% to $3337 per ounce. After the US - Japan agreement, the market expects the US - EU agreement to be reached. The US economic data supports the Fed to continue pausing rate cuts, and the ECB also pauses rate cuts in July. Gold should beware of correction risks [31][33][34] - Brent crude oil drops 2.4% to $69.4 per barrel. The crude oil supply - demand pattern is weak, and the spot commodity index rises, but the market starts to fluctuate sharply on Friday [34] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US - Japan trade agreement is reached. The US will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, lower than the previously threatened 25% level. Japan needs to invest $550 billion in the US, with 90% of the profits going to the US [3][35][36] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - From July 27th to 30th, there will be high - level China - US trade negotiations in Sweden. There are also important economic data releases such as the US 5 - month housing price index, 6 - month job vacancies, and 7 - month consumer confidence. The Fed and the BoJ will announce their July interest - rate meeting decisions, and the US will release its 7 - month non - farm payroll report [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) rating for treasury bonds is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week as exchanges cool down commodities and the Politburo meeting's incremental policies are likely limited. The central bank will maintain market liquidity, and funds are expected to return to a loose state after the month - end. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [2][14] - It is difficult for market risk appetite to continue rising next week. The commodity market rally is driven by sentiment, and there is a risk that market expectations for incremental policies may be disappointed. Market risk appetite is expected to decline gradually [14] - There is no basis for the continuous tightening of the funds market. After the month - end, the funds market is expected to loosen, and the sentiment in the treasury bond market may improve [15][16] - Market fluctuations will continue in Q3, and a trend - based market may not appear until Q4. The bond market is not at risk of a long - term bear market, and it will turn bullish after the central bank's interest - rate cut expectations rise [16] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From July 21 - 27, treasury bond futures declined significantly. Influenced by various factors such as investment news, commodity price changes, and central bank policies, the prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main contracts decreased by 0.108, 0.420, 0.615, and 2.410 yuan respectively compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Outlook - Market sentiment is expected to improve, but fluctuations will persist. Risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and trend - based market may appear in Q4. Strategies include cautiously gambling on oversold rebound opportunities, considering short - hedging strategies, and constructing curve - steepening strategies [2][14][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 84 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 939.805 billion yuan and a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds increased, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. As of July 25, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 4.92, 9.14, 7.07, and 9.15 basis points respectively compared to last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened, while the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed [26][27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures declined significantly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests of 2 - year and 5 - year contracts changed, with the 10 - year and 30 - year contracts showing an increase in open interest [35][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - Positive - arbitrage opportunities were not obvious this week. The IRR of CTD bonds of each main contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%, and the positive - arbitrage strategy opportunities were relatively few [42] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of July 25, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2509 - 2512 contracts were - 0.082, - 0.060, - 0.015, and + 0.220 yuan respectively. The long - term far - season contracts declined slightly more [45][46] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funds Market - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 705 billion yuan this week, but the overall net investment was 109.5 billion yuan. The funds rate increased slightly, and the average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased [49][52][54] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield declined slightly. As of July 25, the US dollar index decreased by 0.80% to 97.6701, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.40%, a 4 - basis - point decline from last weekend [61] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose across the board this week, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of July 25, the South China industrial product index, metal index, and energy - chemical index increased, while the prices of pork, vegetables, and fruits changed differently [64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Next week, it is recommended to cautiously gamble on oversold rebound opportunities. Long - term, there is no bearish view, but it may be too early for allocation funds to go long. Consider short - hedging strategies and construct curve - steepening strategies [2][65]

Industry Investment Rating - The rating for both thermal coal and coking coal is "Bullish" [6] Core Viewpoints - Since June 2025, the "anti-involution" policy has spread to the coal industry, leading to a rapid reversal in coal prices, especially for coking coal. The main coking coal contract has risen by over 70% from the mid-June bottom. The coal overproduction verification is expected to cause a decline in Q3 coal production [2][9]. - The current coal "anti-involution" policy is much weaker than the 2016 supply-side reform in terms of policy intensity and demand-side support. Long-term coal prices still face pressure in price transmission, while short-term price elasticity is mainly due to the backlash of consistent "shorting energy varieties" capital behavior [3]. - Considering the implementation of production control policies, the overall coal production is expected to decrease by 1 - 2% quarter-on-quarter. Thermal coal prices are expected to bottom out early and return to the NDRC's long-term agreement price. For coking coal, the low point for the year has passed, and the upward price trend remains unchanged, but it may return to fundamentals later [4]. Summary by Directory 1. "Anti-involution" Spreads to the Coal Industry, and the Coal Overproduction Control Document is Issued in July - Since June 2025, the "anti-involution" policy has spread to the coal industry, with coking coal prices leading the reversal. As of July 24, the main coking coal contract reached 1,232 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of over 70% from the mid-June bottom [2][9]. - On July 22, the National Energy Administration issued a notice to verify coal mine production and control overproduction. The verification covers about 90% of the country's major coal-producing areas. Local coal enterprises need to complete self-inspections by August 15, and national inspections will be conducted in September. The Q3 coal production is expected to decline quarter-on-quarter [9][10]. 2. Comparison between the Current Coal "Anti-involution" and the 2016 Supply-side Policy - The current coal supply-side policy is much weaker than the 2016 coal and steel supply-side reform in terms of policy urgency, specific measures, and the involved departments. There is also a lack of corresponding demand-side stimulus measures [3][15]. - The long-term effectiveness of the current "anti-involution" policy needs to be observed. With weak domestic and foreign demand, long-term coal price rebound still faces resistance. Short-term price elasticity is mainly due to the backlash of consistent "shorting energy varieties" capital behavior [3][16]. 3. Impact of the Policy on Thermal Coal - In the first half of 2025, thermal coal prices decreased by 150 yuan to a minimum of 620 yuan/ton due to the impact of new energy power generation. After the seasonal peak in power consumption in June, thermal coal prices stabilized seasonally [18]. - Considering the implementation of production control policies, the overall coal production is expected to decrease by 1 - 2% quarter-on-quarter. Thermal coal prices are expected to bottom out early and return to the NDRC's long-term agreement price of 675 yuan/ton (5,500 kcal) [4][19]. 4. Impact of the Policy on Coking Coal - In the first half of this year, coking coal supply increased significantly year-on-year, leading to a rapid accumulation of inventory and a unilateral decline in prices. With the issuance of the verification notice, the coking coal supply has reached its peak, and production may decline quarter-on-quarter in the second half of the year [27]. - Although there is a risk of demand decline, the domestic supply contraction means the low point for the year has passed, and the upward price trend remains unchanged. However, due to the high recent rally sentiment, prices may return to fundamentals later [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy shows mixed data with manufacturing facing stagflation risks but services remaining resilient. Market risk preferences are generally high, and various asset prices are affected by factors such as trade agreements, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [13][21]. - The European Central Bank maintains interest rates and is in a wait - and - see mode, which impacts the short - term trends of the euro and the US dollar index [16][17]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends and investment outlooks based on their own supply - demand situations, policy impacts, and other factors [3][28][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Eurozone central bank interest rates meet market expectations, and the ECB does not provide forward - looking guidance due to unclear tariff policies. The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI drops to 49.5, while the service and composite PMIs reach new highs since December last year. Gold prices are weak in a shock, and short - term gold lacks upward momentum and remains in a shock state [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's allies sue the Fed, and the ECB maintains interest rates. The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term as the euro gets a short - term boost [15][16][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and Japan reach a detailed agreement, and South Korea plans to use corporate investment in the US as a bargaining chip. The US stock market is driven by performance, and the short - term market risk preference remains high but may face callback risks [19][20][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index stands above 3600 points, and it is recommended to allocate assets evenly [22][24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. The market risk preference is strong, and short - term treasury bond futures should be treated with a defensive mindset [26][27]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA weekly export sales report meets expectations. CBOT soybeans continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to maintain a shock - based approach and pay attention to weather and Sino - US relations [28][29]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Issues such as insufficient US sugar production, drought in Russia, and Indian sugar exports are present. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate mainly, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 5900 [30][32][33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Forest fires in Indonesia may affect palm oil production, and palm oil prices may rise further [34]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel inventories show a slight decrease, and steel prices are supported by policies but may face risks. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and pay attention to hedging opportunities [35][37][38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The port inventory of cassava starch decreases, and the price difference with corn starch slightly widens. Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low [39][40]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn consumption and inventory of deep - processing enterprises both decline. New - crop short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to rebound and additional - position opportunities [41][42]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Coal prices are expected to remain strong due to policy and seasonal factors, and attention should be paid to whether the price can reach 700 yuan [43]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Anglo American's iron ore production and sales in Q2 show differences. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44][45]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - New Wufeng's pig sales are reported. The pig market has a complex supply - demand situation, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing long positions [46][47][48]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Issues such as increased maintenance costs of the Panama copper mine and US copper tariffs are present. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [49][52][53]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are plans to revise the energy - consumption standard for polysilicon. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and consider short - term light - position shorting through options [54][55]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Industrial silicon inventory decreases, and production capacity may increase. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view and pay attention to the resumption of production by large factories [56][57]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreases. Nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector to be strong in the short term and decline in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [58][59]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Tesla's new plans and supply - side uncertainties affect lithium carbonate prices. It is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commodity volume of LPG decreases, and inventory shows different trends. LPG prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [62][63][64]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price fluctuates slightly, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [65][66]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory increases. NYMEX natural gas is expected to fluctuate in the short term [67][68]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rises locally. The upward momentum of the caustic soda futures contract may weaken [69][70]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is mostly stable. Investors should be aware of the risks of pulp being hyped by funds [71]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder mostly rises. Investors should be aware of the risks of PVC being hyped by funds [72][73]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories are implementing production - cut plans. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying low and rolling [74][75]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash inventory decreases. The short - term futures price may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to operate carefully [76][77][78]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass rises. It is recommended to operate cautiously on a single side and focus on the arbitrage strategy of buying glass and shorting soda ash [79][80]. 2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - US port container imports decline for two consecutive months. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the short term [81][82].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest news indicates that the US and the EU are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index [2][13]. - The market risk preference remains high, with US stock index futures continuing to rise, and gold and US Treasuries experiencing corrections. However, due to the weak performance of the US real - estate market and uncertainties in US - EU negotiations, there is a need to be cautious about callback risks [18]. - The bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based performance in the near term. Long - position holders are advised to sell on rebounds, and cash bond positions can consider hedging strategies [3]. - For agricultural products, the situation varies. For example, the demand for soybean meal is good, and it is advisable to buy on dips; the palm oil market is affected by supply - side factors in Indonesia; the corn starch industry may face continued losses; and for corn, old - crop prices are expected to remain stable until new - crop harvest [24][26][31][34]. - In the black metal sector, the price of thermal coal is expected to rebound in the short term; iron ore prices are overvalued and show differentiation; and coking coal prices are affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with a need to be cautious after a sharp increase [28][29][36]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, the price of lithium carbonate is affected by supply - side disturbances; the fundamentals of lead are improving; copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the short term; zinc prices are expected to continue the upward trend in the short term; and nickel prices may follow the overall non - ferrous metal trend in the short term but face supply - side pressure in the medium term [38][39][45][48][52]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term; PX prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term; PTA prices may follow the overall domestic commodity trend; and the situations of other products such as caustic soda, pulp, PVC, bottle chips, soda ash, and float glass also have their own characteristics and corresponding investment suggestions [53][55][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Russia and Ukraine will hold a new round of negotiations. The Russian delegation led by Vladimir Medinsky went to Turkey to meet the Ukrainian delegation led by Rustem Umerov. The meeting is expected to start in the evening [11]. - Trump said that the US and the EU reached an agreement on military aid to Ukraine, where the EU will pay for all military equipment and distribute it, with most going to Ukraine [12]. - The US and the EU are close to reaching a 15% tariff agreement, which will reduce the possibility of trade conflicts between them, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite and a weakening of the US dollar index. It is recommended that the US dollar index will weaken in the short term [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US existing - home sales dropped to a nine - month low in June, with the annualized total of existing - home sales decreasing by 2.7% month - on - month to 393,000 units, lower than the expected 400,000 units, and the supply of existing - home sales can last for 4.7 months, the highest since July 2016 [15]. - Google's second - quarter earnings exceeded expectations, and it increased its annual capital expenditure to $85 billion from the previously expected $75 billion [16]. - The US and the EU are close to reaching a trade agreement, and the negotiation is positive. The market risk preference remains high, but due to the weak real - estate market and uncertainties in the negotiation, there is a need to be cautious about callback risks [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 23, with a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan due to the maturity of 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases. The bond market is unlikely to have a trend - based performance in the near term. Long - position holders are advised to sell on rebounds, and cash bond positions can consider hedging strategies. Short - term trading long - position holders can close their positions after the Politburo meeting [20][21]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. Analysts expect the net increase in US soybean export sales for the week ending July 17 to be between 350,000 and 850,000 tons. - Argentina crushed 4.055 million tons of soybeans in June, producing 788,000 tons of soybean oil and 3.021 million tons of soybean meal. The demand for soybean meal is good, and it is advisable to buy on dips and not chase high prices [22][23][24]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 11.24% month - on - month. GAPKI data shows that Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased to 2.96 million tons in May. The palm oil market is affected by supply - side factors in Indonesia, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the transfer of plantation operating rights on the production - increasing season [25][26]. 2.3 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - Zheng Shanjie emphasized promoting the improvement of involution - style competition and expanding industrial chain and supply - chain cooperation. The port spot coal price is rising moderately, and it is expected to continue the rebound trend in the short term due to the high market sentiment and rigid demand [27][28]. 2.4 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Vale's second - quarter production and sales report shows stable performance. The price of iron ore is overvalued, and it is recommended to wait and see due to the possible compression of price space by the increase in coal prices and weak terminal demand [29]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased, and inventory has been reduced. However, the industry may face continued losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low and volatile [30][31]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern port decreased, while that in the southern port increased. The price of old - crop corn is expected to remain stable until new - crop harvest, and early - entered short positions of new - crop corn can be held, with attention to rebound - adding opportunities [33][34]. 2.7 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply of coking coal is recovering slower than expected, and demand is strong. After a sharp increase, it is necessary to be cautious about risks [35][36]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe's lithium spodumene exports increased by 30% in the first half of 2025. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading fee standard for lithium carbonate futures contracts. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by supply - side disturbances, and it is recommended to reduce positions or wait and see [37][38]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - On July 22, the [LME0 - 3 Lead] was at a discount of $25.4 per ton. The fundamentals of lead are improving, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips in the short term [39]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metal (Copper) - Glencore plans to suspend copper smelting in northern Queensland; Askari found high - grade copper mineralization in Ethiopia; MMG's copper production in the second quarter increased by 54% year - on - year; the global copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons in May. Copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - On July 22, the [LME0 - 3 Zinc] was at a discount of $4.23 per ton. MMG's zinc mine production in the second quarter increased by 12% year - on - year. Zinc prices are expected to continue the upward trend in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for the overall situation and consider near - month spread arbitrage [46][47][48][49]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - Vale's nickel production in the second quarter reached a new high since 2021. The price of nickel may follow the overall non - ferrous metal trend in the short term but face supply - side pressure in the medium term [50][52]. 2.13 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased. Crude oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, waiting for new driving factors [53][54]. 2.14 Energy and Chemical (PX) - On July 23, the PX price was slightly weaker. The cost support is insufficient, but the bottom is supported. The PX price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [55][56]. 2.15 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased significantly in the afternoon of the previous day. PTA prices may follow the overall domestic commodity trend in the short term [57][58]. 2.16 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - On July 23, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong fluctuated. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable. The upward space of caustic soda prices is limited after the basis of the 09 contract is completed [59][60]. 2.17 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is rising, but high - price transactions are difficult. The pulp price is rising due to policy and coal price factors, but the upward space is limited due to the unchanged supply - demand situation [61][62]. 2.18 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - The price of PVC powder in the domestic market is consolidating. The PVC price is rising with the overall commodity market, but the inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [63]. 2.19 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable with partial slight increases. The industry is implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding processing fees by buying on dips [64][65][66]. 2.20 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash from Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical is stable. The soda ash futures price decreased slightly, and the market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to operate cautiously and wait for policy guidance [67]. 2.21 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - The price of 5mm float glass in Hubei increased by 1.5 on July 23. The glass futures price increase narrowed. It is recommended to operate cautiously on a single - side basis and focus on arbitrage strategies such as buying glass and shorting soda ash [68].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices rose by over 1%, influenced by domestic stimulus expectations for commodities and overseas concerns about US tariff implementation and the Fed's independence [1][12]. - Strong risk appetite may disrupt the bond market in the next 1 - 2 months, with a risk of the futures' oscillation center shifting downwards. However, there is no long - term adjustment risk for the bond market [2][13]. - Coke had a second round of price hikes. Recently, coking coal was affected by macro and policy factors, with strong market sentiment, but risks should be noted after a significant increase [3][23]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to policy expectation risks and inventory accumulation concerns, and it is advisable to wait and see [4][44]. - Oil prices oscillated downward despite a decline in API crude oil inventory [5][51]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump stated that Powell's term has only eight months left and criticized his interest - rate policy, calling for a rate cut of at least 3 percentage points [11]. - Trump announced that Japan will pay a 15% reciprocal tariff to the US, and Japan will invest $550 billion in the US, with the US getting 90% of the profits. Gold prices rose over 1%, driven by domestic stimulus expectations and overseas concerns. It is recommended that short - term gold prices are likely to be strong with increased volatility [12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 22. Sentiment is driving the market. It is expected that strong risk appetite will disrupt the bond market in the next 1 - 2 months, but there is no long - term adjustment risk. Short - term trading long positions can be closed after the Politburo meeting [13][14]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of July 19, Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was 16.7%, 3.1 percentage points higher than the previous week but 3.8% slower than last year. In 2025, China's new cotton is expected to have a yield of 158.7 kg/mu, a 2.5% increase. As of July 20, US cotton's budding and boll - setting rates were slower than last year, but the excellent rate was higher. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up Zhengzhou cotton prices [15][16][17]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOC expects the price of crude palm oil in August to be between 4,100 - 4,300 ringgit/ton. The oil market was oscillating, and it is recommended to buy on dips or sell call options on the 09 contract [18][19]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In Q2 2025, the growth rate of real estate loans rebounded. Steel prices rose mainly due to the increase in coking coal and coke prices. It is expected that steel prices will be strong in the short term, but there are potential risks after August [20][21]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Coke had a second round of price hikes. The impact of checking for over - production in coal mines is limited. Coking coal supply recovery is slower than expected, and demand is strong. However, risks should be noted after a significant increase [22][23]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On July 22, corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong had theoretical losses, and the losses are expected to continue or expand, with the operating rate remaining low [24][25]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - On July 22, the成交 rate of imported corn auctions increased. Old - crop corn is expected to have little fluctuation, and it is recommended to hold a small number of new - crop short positions and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [26]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - New Hope's piglet stocking in June 2025 was about 1.3 million. Spot prices have been falling, while futures are relatively stable. It is recommended to buy the 09 contract on dips and wait for hedging opportunities on the November contract [27][28]. 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 22, the price of steam coal in northern ports was stable. With the implementation of the coal over - production check policy and the peak summer season, coal prices are expected to be strong in the short term [29]. 2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The production plan of household air conditioners in August 2025 decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. Iron ore prices continued to rise, but they are in an over - valued area, and it is advisable to wait and see [30]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A Japanese - Korean joint venture plans to build a polysilicon plant in Malaysia. The polysilicon capacity storage plan is progressing slowly. It is recommended that polysilicon enterprises sell at or above the benchmark cost. Long positions are advised to consider taking profits gradually [33][34]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In June, China's export of primary polysiloxane increased month - on - month. The supply recovery of industrial silicon is slower than expected, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and observe the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang [35][36]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On July 21, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount. The fundamentals of lead have improved, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips [37][38]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On July 21, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount. Zinc supply is expected to increase, and demand is differentiated. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and pay attention to near - month spread arbitrage [39][41]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Nornickel lowered its 2025 nickel, copper, and palladium production forecasts. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to policy and inventory factors, and it is advisable to wait and see [42][44]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Nornickel's nickel production in Q2 2025 increased by 9% quarter - on - quarter. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to follow the non - ferrous metals sector and be strong, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium term, it is recommended to look for opportunities to sell high [45][47]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - There are disputes over a lithium project in Congo. The market is focused on supply - side disturbances. It is recommended to reduce positions or wait and see unilaterally and focus on 9 - 11 spread operations [48][50]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - API crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while refined oil inventory increased. Oil prices are expected to remain oscillating in the short term [51][52]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 22, the CEA closed at 73.30 yuan/ton. The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and enterprises with quota needs can buy cautiously on dips [53][55]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 22, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong declined. The upward momentum of the caustic soda futures may weaken [56][57]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was stable. The pulp futures increased due to policy and coal price factors, but the upward space is limited [58]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - From July 1 - 20, 2025, South Korea's total benzene exports were 162,015 tons. Styrene prices oscillated strongly. It is recommended to wait for a better entry point for pure benzene and observe the macro - policy impact on styrene [59][60]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder increased. PVC futures followed the market's upward trend, but the fundamentals are weakening, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [61]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market was stable and strong. The futures price rose significantly. It is risky to short in the short term, and it is necessary to wait for further policy guidance [63][64]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market increased. The glass futures rose due to supply - side policy expectations. It is recommended to be cautious about unilateral operations and focus on arbitrage strategies such as going long on glass and short on soda ash [65][66]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories' export prices were mostly stable with partial slight adjustments. The industry plans to cut production in July, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to expand processing fees on dips [67][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend rating for PVC is "oscillating", with an amplitude of - 5% - + 5% [5] Report's Core View - Currently, the supply - demand situation of PVC has weakened month - on - month, but the strong policy expectations have reversed the market's overly pessimistic sentiment, driving the futures price to rise significantly. However, the price increase has not yet significantly affected the supply - demand relationship, as marginal production capacity is still in a loss state. If the futures price rises to 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, marginal production capacity may turn profitable, and supply may increase marginally. Also, the 09 basis has reached the risk - free arbitrage level, and sufficient spot inventory and available warehouse capacity will attract more hedging positions if the price continues to rise. In the current strong commodity market sentiment, the PVC futures price may remain strong in the short term, but it is likely to fall from its high if there is no clear short - term policy implementation plan or if the overall commodity market sentiment calms down [3][18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 6 - month - on - month Weakening of PVC Fundamentals - Since June, with the end of spring maintenance, PVC supply has increased month - on - month. As Southeast Asia and India enter the rainy season, China's PVC exports have weakened significantly in June. Since mid - June, PVC social inventory has shifted from continuous depletion since the end of February to continuous accumulation, indicating a significant month - on - month weakening of PVC fundamentals [1][8] Unclear Supply - side Policy Implementation Rules and Few Old PVC Devices - There are no official and enforceable rules for anti - involution and old device transformation policies in the PVC industry. Although some marginal PVC production capacity is in a loss state, most northwest calcium carbide - based PVC enterprises are profitable, and leading enterprises have little motivation for anti - involution. According to statistics, PVC devices with an operation time of over 20 years have a total capacity of 218 million tons per year, accounting for only 7.6% of the total capacity, and 35 million tons per year of them are in long - term shutdown. The overall PVC industry devices are relatively new due to self - initiated capacity clearance from 2013 - 2015 and the clearance of high - cost calcium carbide - based devices in recent years. The current rise in the PVC futures price is more due to sentiment rather than an actual improvement in supply - demand [2][14] Investment Advice - Fundamentally, the current supply - demand of PVC has weakened month - on - month, but strong policy expectations have reversed the market's pessimistic sentiment and pushed up the futures price. The current price increase has not significantly affected the supply - demand relationship as marginal production capacity is still in a loss state. If the futures price rises to 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, marginal production capacity may turn profitable, and supply may increase marginally. The 09 basis has reached the risk - free arbitrage level, and sufficient spot inventory and available warehouse capacity will attract more hedging positions if the price continues to rise, which is why the number of warehouse receipts has increased rapidly recently. In the current strong commodity market sentiment, the PVC futures price may remain strong in the short term, but it is likely to fall from its high if there is no clear short - term policy implementation plan or if the overall commodity market sentiment calms down [3][18]

调研报告——纯苯 东证化工草根调研二十七：华东纯苯产业链 [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 纯苯：震荡 ★进口货源高企推升港口库存，华东部分库区转为阶梯式计价 今年以来，纯苯进口货源同比持续高企，使得华东主港库存明显高 于去年同期。为提升货源周转速度，华东某库区已经于 7 月中旬从 固定式收费转为阶梯式收费。关于纯苯货源抵港情况，就近端而言， 前期部分进口货源有所延期，近期抵港货源偏多。展望后续，抵港 货源数量环比可能略有减少，纯苯进口量级环比或有下降，但远端 实际下降幅度比较难评估。另外关于加氢苯入罐问题，某库区给出 的反馈为，考虑周边工厂原料实际采购及使用情况，目前不接受加 氢苯入罐，后续可能会再结合实际情况进行调整。 能 源 化 工 ★纯苯生产相对稳定，自发性供应量级调整幅度一般在 5-10%左右 纯苯因其生产特性问题，供应整体较为稳定，极少出现因单一环节 利润导致的装置开停调整。从本次调研的纯苯生产企业情况来看， 其纯苯的潜在自发性供应量级调整幅度一般在 5-10%左右，其主要通 过两种方式进行负荷调整：①某企业在去年纯苯效益好的时候，产 线负荷超负一成左右；今年效益同比有所下降，装置变为正常满负 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current tight supply of scrap aluminum provides strong support for the market. Despite the serious over - capacity and low operating rate in the recycled aluminum industry, the scrap aluminum supply shortage and the delayed arrival of the scrap peak in 2 - 3 years give a solid foundation to the market. There is a potential for a soft squeeze - out situation in the ADC12 market if the peak - season demand is fulfilled and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3][14][19]. - In terms of investment strategies, an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL can be considered currently, with profit expected to be realized in October. For unilateral trading, there are opportunities to go long at low prices [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Objects and Purposes - The research objects are 5 recycled aluminum plants and 2 scrap aluminum recyclers in Nantong, Baoying, Kunshan, and Shanghai. The purpose is to discuss aspects such as production capacity, output, scrap aluminum supply and demand, costs, prices, inventory strategies, and hedging intentions after the listing of aluminum alloy futures, and to think about subsequent trading logic [10]. 3.2. Key Research Findings and Analyses 3.2.1. Scrap Aluminum Procurement - Scrap aluminum procurement is tight due to limited imports (US tariff policies, port congestion in Malaysia, and environmental regulations in Thailand), limited domestic scrap aluminum increment but increasing demand, and some large factories only purchasing from large - scale ticket - issuing recyclers to avoid information asymmetry risks [14][17]. 3.2.2. Production and Operation - The surveyed recycled aluminum plants have an operating rate higher than the industry average, with an aluminum liquid direct - supply ratio of over 50 - 60% and a maximum transportation distance of 300km. The ADC12 production ratio is around 40 - 50%, and orders are mainly long - term contracts. There is a potential soft squeeze - out risk in the ADC12 market [18][19]. - The use ratio of raw and cooked aluminum in scrap aluminum is flexibly adjusted according to prices. The natural gas consumption per ton is 80 cubic meters, and the total processing fee is 800 - 1200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive tax burden in Jiangsu and Shanghai is about 2 percentage points higher than that in Anhui, but some enterprises can make up for this cost through local procurement and sales, and product quality premiums [23][24]. - The raw material inventory of surveyed enterprises is generally 7 - 10 days' usage, and the finished product inventory is about 1000 - 1500 tons, with some enterprises having no finished product inventory but a high aluminum liquid direct - supply ratio [25]. 3.2.3. Warehouse Receipts - Currently, surveyed enterprises are open to delivering warehouse receipts but are mostly in a wait - and - see mode, mainly referring to the futures price and basis in September - October. The storage time of ADC12 alloy ingots is limited, and the high standards of futures delivery products may reduce the willingness of downstream enterprises to take delivery from the futures market [27]. 3.3. Investment Recommendations 3.3.1. Arbitrage - Consider the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL. The current price difference between ADC12 and A00 fluctuates between - 1500 yuan and + 500 yuan/ton, and the profit is expected to be realized in October. In the long - term, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 may gradually decrease [28]. 3.3.2. Unilateral Trading - Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. The tight scrap aluminum supply and the potential for a soft squeeze - out situation provide support for long - side trading [3][29]. 3.4. Research Minutes 3.4.1. Aluminum Alloy Plant A - Raw materials are mainly domestic scrap aluminum, with less than 20% imported. The annual production capacity is 24.99 tons, and the annual output is 22 tons. The ADC12 production ratio is over 40%. The enterprise does not stock finished products and sells based on orders [30]. 3.4.2. Aluminum Alloy Plant B - The import ratio of scrap aluminum is 30%, and the domestic ratio is 70%. The designed annual production capacity is 20 tons, and the current annual output is 7 - 8 tons. The enterprise plans to use a new production line for futures delivery products [33]. 3.4.3. Aluminum Alloy Plant C - Raw materials are mainly domestic. The Baoying base has a production capacity of 11.85 tons. The aluminum liquid ratio is over 60%, and the ADC12 ratio in aluminum ingots is less than 35%. The enterprise participates in hedging and has views on industry development [35][36]. 3.4.4. Aluminum Alloy Plant D - The Kunshan production line has a total approved production capacity of 12 tons, and the Anhui production line will focus on delivery. The ADC12 production ratio is 20 - 30%. The enterprise is positive about futures trading [37][38]. 3.4.5. Aluminum Alloy Plant E - The monthly scrap aluminum procurement is 4000 - 5000 tons. The current production capacity is 7 tons, and the monthly output is about 6000 tons. The enterprise is cautious about the increase in ADC12 social inventory [39][41]. 3.4.6. Scrap Aluminum Recycling Enterprise A - It has recycling centers in Shanghai and Fujian, with a large trading volume. It mainly recycles new scrap aluminum from aluminum processing enterprises and conducts business through long - term contracts [42]. 3.4.7. Scrap Aluminum Recycling and Aluminum Alloy Trading Enterprise B - It is a benchmark enterprise in scrap aluminum supply. The monthly ADC12 trading volume is about 1000 tons, and it may participate in delivery in November. It mainly conducts long - term contract business and hedges when purchasing scrap aluminum [44][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report monitors key container ports and hubs globally. In Asia, typhoon season and export peak season are overlapping, putting continuous pressure on domestic port operations, with potential for worsening congestion in the short - term. In Southeast Asia, port congestion may persist due to increased transshipment demand. In Europe, issues like summer vacations, labor shortages, railway construction, and low river levels will likely lead to a resurgence of congestion in the next two months. In North America, the overall congestion is controllable, but the scale of ships in US ports is slightly increasing [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data点评 - **Asian Ports**: In China, Yangshan, Waigaoqiao, and Ningbo ports have different average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships, with the latest number of anchored/berthed ships varying. The average turnover time in Yangshan is about 1.9 days, Ningbo about 1.5 days, and Yantian about 1.3 days. Ports in South China are closed due to typhoons, and those in East China are affected by strong winds, increasing congestion risk. In Southeast Asia, Port Klang's congestion has improved but remains high, and Singapore's average ship stay is 1.3 days, while Port Klang's is 1.7 days [2] - **European Ports**: Ports like Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, and Bremen in Europe have different average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships, with varying numbers of anchored/berthed ships. Issues such as summer vacations, labor shortages, railway construction, and low Rhine River levels will cause congestion to rise in the next two months, although the current congestion is less severe than last year. Attention should be paid to German ports and Rotterdam [2] - **North American Ports**: In the US, ports on the West Coast and East Coast have different average waiting and berthing times for ocean - going container ships. The scale of ships in US ports is slightly increasing, but the overall congestion is controllable. The stay time of ships on the West Coast has slightly increased, while that on the East Coast has no obvious change. Future port operation dynamics should be monitored [2] Data Overview - **Port in - port Duration**: The latest in - port durations, month - on - month, year - on - year changes, monthly averages, and durations of the same period last year are provided for multiple ports, including Yangshan, Ningbo, Singapore, Port Klang, etc. For example, Yangshan's latest in - port duration is 45.6 hours, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.4 hours and a year - on - year increase of 18.4 hours [6] Asian Port Dynamic Tracking - **Container Ship Scale**: Data on the scale of container ships in ports in China and Southeast Asia are presented, including the number of anchored and berthed ships in different ports over time [8][11][14] - **Average Time**: The average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in Southeast Asian and Chinese container ports are shown over time [17] European Port Dynamic Tracking - **Container Ship Scale**: The scale of container ships in European ports, including those in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean/Black Sea regions, and the number of anchored and berthed ships in major Northwest European ports are provided [20] - **Average Time**: The average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in Northwest European and Mediterranean container ports are presented over time [27][31] North American Port Dynamic Tracking - **Container Ship Scale**: The number of anchored and berthed ships in some North American ports, and the scale of container ships in North American East and West ports are shown [35][39] - **Average Time**: The average in - port, waiting, and berthing times of ocean - going container ships in US container ports are provided over time [40] Large - ship Arrival and Key Hub Monitoring - **Large - ship Arrival**: The arrival situations of large - scale container ships (1.2 - 1.7w and 1.7w +) at Yangshan, Ningbo, and Singapore ports, and the arrival situations of 1.2w + container ships of different alliances (Gemini, OA, PA + MSC) in Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean are presented [44][47][53] - **Key Hub**: The passage situations of container ships at the Cape of Good Hope, Suez Canal, and Panama Canal are shown, including the number of arriving and passing ships and the container throughput [50][51]