周度报告——光伏玻璃 5 月份新月价格较 4 月有一定幅度下滑，行业低价产品较前期有 所增多。随着后续供需差进一步扩大，光伏玻璃价格仍存在下行 风险。 供增需减背景下，光伏玻璃价格走弱 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 5 月 12 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/5/9 当周）： 截至 5 月 9 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格为 13.5 元/平米，环比上周下跌；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 21.5 元/ 平米，亦环比上周下跌。 五一假期期间有一条产线保窑，暂不出产品。预计本周有 1-2 条 前期新投产线将引头子出玻璃，行业产量呈上行趋势。目前来看， 短期内暂无企业存在新投产计划。 能 源 五一假期后组件端表现偏弱，随着光伏抢装需求快速退潮，5 月 组件排产计划迎来下调，行业进入深度调整期，对于光伏玻璃消 费相应减少。 化 工 进入 5 月份，随着光伏玻璃供给量回升至高位，而需求较 4 月整 体有所下滑，供需差进一步加大，行业库存开始呈上行趋势。预 计本周行业需求难有好转，且不排除组件端持续减产的可能，光 伏玻璃厂家走货压力或进一步加大。 ★ 供需分析： ...

日度报告——综合晨报 中美贸易谈判预计取得进展，美联储强调稳 定通胀重要性 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-12 宏观策略（黄金） 4 月中国 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降 2.7% 综 合 在散户交投活跃度高涨、消息面驱动的背景下，通胀压力和企 业业绩压力被市场忽视。当前市场估值水平已经修复至历史中 值附近，已经难言便宜，行情持续冲高将逐渐积累风险。 晨 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 报 美联储威廉姆斯强调稳定通胀重要 中美关税谈判达成共识，有望进行进一步谈判，对短期风险偏 好构成支持，美国股指期货涨幅近 1%。 黑色金属（动力煤） 2025 年 3 月日本煤炭进口 1237.98 万吨 中美贸易谈判取得进展 金价周五走势震荡表现偏弱，中美高层贸易谈判取得进展推动 金价周一开盘走低，关税问题和地缘军事冲突短期存在改善空 间，黄金短期仍有回调空间。 宏观策略（股指期货） 五一后，港口动力煤库存爆仓，煤价再度失守，港口 5500K 报 价约 645 元，前期 650 元支撑位跌破。关注 5 月份后火电日耗增 速以及国内煤矿开工率变化，或在此轮急跌后供 农产品（玉米） 中央气象台 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market shows an upward trend, with different industries contributing to the gains of various indices. The subsequent basis trend is affected by complex factors, and both the roll - over strategy and the inter - period strategy recommend going long on the near - term contracts and short on the far - term contracts for IH, IF, IC, and IM. Different arbitrage and timing strategies of stock index futures have different performances last week [3][4]. - For treasury bond futures, the inter - period strategy maintains the previous view, suggesting that short - hedging positions of treasury bond futures start to arrange the roll - over in advance. The multi - factor timing strategy signal is bullish, the inter - variety arbitrage strategy signal of TS - T is neutral and T - TL is bearish, and the current credit bond duration rotation plus hedging strategy holds the 3 - 5 - year index and conducts treasury bond futures hedging [56]. - In the commodity market, various style factors of commodities perform differently. The term structure and basis factors rebound slightly, the warehouse receipt factor falls, and the volume - price and value factors rise more. The CTA strategy may fluctuate in the short - term, but the long - term prospects of the CTA's volume - price trend and spot - futures structure factors are promising [76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Quantitative Strategy Tracking 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures Market Review - The market shows an upward trend. Banks and food and beverage contribute to the gains of the SSE 50 Index, banks and power equipment contribute to the gains of the CSI 300 Index, national defense and military industry and computer contribute to the gains of the CSI 500 Index, and power equipment and national defense and military industry contribute to the gains of the CSI 1000 Index [3]. - The trading volume of each variety increases month - on - month. The basis of IF and IH strengthens, while that of IC and IM weakens, with IC and IM maintaining a deep discount [4]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Futures Basis Strategy Recommendation - IH and IF are prone to provide trading opportunities of going long on the near - term contracts and short on the far - term contracts during the ex - dividend season. IC and IM maintain a discount due to the dominant roll - over of neutral strategies. Both the roll - over strategy and the inter - period strategy recommend going long on the near - term contracts and short on the far - term contracts [4]. 3.1.3 Stock Index Futures Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - In the inter - period arbitrage strategy, the annualized basis rate, cash - and - carry, and momentum strategies gain 1.1%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively last week [5]. - The inter - variety arbitrage timing strategy's signal turns to going long on small - cap and short on large - cap, and the synthetic strategy has a drawdown of 0.1% last week. The latest signal recommends a 100% position to go long on IC and short on IF, and a 100% position to go long on IM and short on IF [6]. - The inter - variety arbitrage cross - section strategy gains 0.04% last week [7]. 3.1.4 Stock Index Futures Timing Strategy Tracking - The daily timing strategy's different models have different performances last week. The single - factor equal - weighted, OLS, and XGB models lose 1.5%, 1.3%, and gain 1.7% respectively. The latest signal of the OLS model is bearish on each index, and the XGB model is bullish on the CSI 500/CSI 1000 and bearish on the SSE 50/CSI 300 [8]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Quantitative Strategy 3.2.1 This Week's Strategy Focus - In terms of basis and inter - period, the inter - period strategy maintains the previous view, suggesting that short - hedging positions of treasury bond futures start to arrange the roll - over in advance. - In the futures timing strategy, the net value of the multi - factor timing strategy fluctuates this week, and the signal is bullish. - In the futures inter - variety arbitrage strategy, the latest signal of the TS - T strategy is neutral, and the T - TL strategy is bearish. - In the credit bond neutral strategy, the hedging pressure index of treasury bond futures based on far - term contracts rebounds, and the current credit bond duration rotation plus hedging strategy holds the 3 - 5 - year index and conducts treasury bond futures hedging [56]. 3.2.2 Key Points of Treasury Bond Futures Basis and Inter - Period Spread - The inter - period spreads of different treasury bond futures varieties show obvious differentiation this week. TS rebounds significantly, TL weakens significantly, and T and TF fluctuate at a low level. The inter - period strategy maintains the previous view, suggesting that short - hedging positions of treasury bond futures start to arrange the roll - over in advance [57]. 3.3 Commodity CTA Factor and Tracking Strategy Performance 3.3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Affected by the combination of macro policies and external events, the domestic commodity market shows mixed performance. Different style factors of commodities perform differently. The term structure and basis factors rebound slightly, the warehouse receipt factor falls, and the volume - price and value factors rise more. The CTA strategy may fluctuate in the short - term, but the long - term prospects of the CTA's volume - price trend and spot - futures structure factors are promising [76][79]. 3.3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies have different performances. For example, the CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 9.8%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.64, and a Calmar ratio of 1.11, with a return of 0.34% last week and 1.08% this year [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "sideways" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The core trading logic of the continuous increase in positions and decline in the futures market, hitting new lows, is to continuously test the cost support of the resource end against the backdrop of no unexpected performance on the demand side and even the need to revise down the terminal growth rate expectations. The accelerated decline in ore prices and the sequential decline in the current operating costs of multiple mines have made this logic smoother. The main logic of long - term oversupply of the variety and the downward shift of cost support remains unchanged, but short - term rhythms need to be noted in the trading dimension. From a fundamental perspective, attention should be paid to whether the reduction in salt production continues to expand, and potential disturbances at the resource end should be continuously vigilant in a low - price environment. After a rapid increase in positions and decline in the futures market, short - covering caused by the expectation gap may drive a rapid rebound in the futures market. Strategically, it is not recommended to continue to short at the current level, nor is it recommended to bottom - fish on the left side based solely on static valuations. Instead, patiently wait for opportunities to short on rebounds [2][20] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Resource End Has No Effective Resistance, and the Increase in Positions in the Futures Market Hits New Lows - Last week (05/06 - 05/09), lithium salt prices accelerated their decline. The closing price of LC2505 decreased by 4% sequentially to 63,000 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LC2507 decreased by 4.5% sequentially to 63,000 yuan/ton. The average spot prices of SMM battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate decreased by 4.0% and 3.9% sequentially to 65,300 yuan/ton and 63,600 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the near - month contract of lithium carbonate on Liyang Zhonglian Jin decreased by 3.5% sequentially to 64,000 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of lithium hydroxide also showed a weak trend. The average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micron - sized battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 1.9% and 1.8% sequentially to 66,300 yuan/ton and 71,500 yuan/ton respectively. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate slightly narrowed to 1,700 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide changed from a discount to a premium of 1,000 yuan/ton compared to battery - grade lithium carbonate [1][10] - According to Chilean customs, in April, Chile exported a total of 24,400 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 6% increase sequentially and a 15% decrease year - on - year. Among them, the export to China was 15,500 tons, a 6.3% decrease sequentially and a 32% decrease year - on - year. From January to April, Chile exported a total of 91,600 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 3% increase year - on - year. Among them, the export to China was 63,300 tons, unchanged year - on - year. In terms of lithium sulfate, in April, Chile shipped 9,100 tons (4,500 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate to China, a 56% increase sequentially and a 14% increase year - on - year. From January to April, a total of 27,300 tons (13,600 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate were shipped to China, a 138% increase year - on - year [2][12] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - In April 2025, BYD's total installed capacity of power batteries and energy - storage batteries was approximately 26.478GWh, a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 110.83%. In April, BYD's new - energy vehicle production was 385,064 units, and sales were 380,089 units, a year - on - year increase of 21.34%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative production was 1,442,143 units, and the cumulative sales were 1,380,893 units. In April, the overseas sales of new - energy vehicles totaled 79,086 units, and the cumulative overseas sales from January to April were 285,134 units. The cumulative installed capacity from January to April was approximately 79.031GWh [22] - Chile's lithium export volume in April was 24,404 tons, of which the export volume of lithium carbonate was 21,770 tons. The export volume of lithium carbonate to China in that month was 15,546 tons [22] - Liontown Resources received 15 million Australian dollars in financial support from the Western Australian state government. The state took action to support its key minerals industry in the context of持续疲软 prices. Liontown signed a 15 million Australian - dollar interest - free loan agreement with the state and was confirmed to be eligible for temporary exemption from port fees and certain mining property fee rebates. These support measures are aimed at alleviating the financial pressure during the capacity expansion of the Kathleen Valley lithium project and will remain effective until the spodumene price recovers to over $1,100 per ton for two consecutive quarters or until June 30, 2026, whichever comes first [23] - The Chinese Embassy in Chile stated that BYD and Tsingshan have never said they stopped investing in Chile and are willing to continue dialogue with the Chilean authorities [23] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: The Spot Quotation of Lithium Concentrate Continues to Decline - The spot quotation of lithium concentrate continues to decline [24] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: The Main Contract Hits a New Low Again - The main contract of lithium carbonate hits a new low again [26] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Decline - The quotes of downstream intermediates decline [36] 3.3.4 Terminal: In March, China's New - Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Increased Significantly Year - on - Year - In March, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly year - on - year [41]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for corn and corn starch is bullish [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Agricultural product spot prices have risen without triggering a large amount of new supply. The supply - demand gap is expected not to shrink, and spot prices are expected to continue to strengthen. Before more fragmented evidence supporting tight inventory carry - over appears, hedging pressure and concerns about auctions may suppress the upward momentum of futures prices. It is recommended to continue holding the 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spread strategies. If import auctions are launched, the quantity is not expected to exceed expectations, and attention should be paid to the demand and inventory situation reflected by the transaction rate and transaction price [3] - The开机 rate of corn starch continues to increase inertia, and starch inventory accumulates. Although the overall tone of reducing the开机 rate remains unchanged, the speed may be disturbed by various factors. The current futures CS - C spread has complex influencing factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Review 1.1 Corn - Relevant charts include corn's spot and futures price performance and basis, spot price trend, 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 month - spread trends [15] 1.2 Corn Starch - Relevant charts include corn starch's spot and futures price performance and basis, the spread between starch and corn's main futures, the spot spread between starch and corn in Weifang, and corn starch by - product revenue compensation [19][22] 2. Weekly Observation of Corn Fundamental Information 2.1 Purchase and Sale of Reserves - Relevant charts show the situation of China Grain Reserves Corporation's online competitive sales and purchases of corn [29] 2.2 Inventory - Relevant charts cover the grain inventory, foreign trade inventory, and domestic trade inventory of corn in southern ports, the corn inventory in northern ports, the corn inventory of major deep - processing enterprises, the corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of major deep - processing enterprises, and the corn inventory days of feed enterprises [32][38][43] 2.3 Substitutes - Relevant charts show the price spread between wheat and corn and the theoretical advantage spread of wheat substituting for corn [47] 2.4 Demand - Relevant charts include the profitability of corn - to - ethanol in Heilongjiang, the corn alcohol开机 rate, and the average slaughter weight of pigs [49][50] 3. Weekly Observation of Corn Starch Fundamental Information 3.1 Profitability - Relevant charts show the profitability and profit of corn starch enterprises [54] 3.2 Supply - Relevant charts include the开机 rate and processing volume of corn starch enterprises [57] 3.3 Demand - Relevant charts show the开机 rates of fructose syrup, maltose syrup, corrugated paper, and box - board paper [62][63] 3.4 Inventory - Relevant charts cover the available inventory of corn starch enterprises and the seasonal trend of registered corn starch warehouse receipts [67]

周度报告-黄金 贸易问题短期缓和，黄金冲高回落 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | | 黄金：看跌 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 月 | 11 | 日 | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金反弹 2.6%至 3325 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.38%，通 胀预期 2.31%，实际利率微升至 2.06%，美元指数涨 0.31%至 100.3， 标普 500 指数跌 0.47%，离岸人民币小跌，沪金维持较高溢价。 贵 金 属 金价波动增加，关税问题仍然是市场交易核心所在，特朗普表示将 对美国以外生产的电影加征 100%关税，叠加地缘军事冲突升温，国 内资金节后抄底增加，推动黄金再度突破 3400 美元/盎司。但随后 美联储 5 月利率会议按兵不动表态偏鹰，以及英国和美国达成贸 易协议，黄金高位回落，日内波动幅度加大。中美高层瑞士举行 会谈，此前的关税无法正常贸易，因而双方均有降低关税到能贸 易的水平的意愿，关税问题边际上存在改善空间，短期对黄金不 利，但中长期维度贸易不会 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading volume and open interest of the commodity options market recovered this week. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - Most commodity option underlying assets declined this week. Many varieties' implied volatility dropped, presenting short - volatility opportunities. Different varieties show varying market sentiment based on volume PCR and open interest PCR [2][14]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - From May 5th to May 9th, 2025, the daily average trading volume was 5.5151 million lots, up 21.28% week - on - week, and the daily average open interest was 7.8 million lots, up 18.18% week - on - week [1][7]. - Actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume include PTA, soda ash, and glass. Notable volume - increasing varieties are polysilicon, caustic soda, and lithium carbonate, while p - xylene had a significant volume decline [1][7]. - Varieties with high daily average open interest are soybean meal, glass, and soda ash. Those with rapid open - interest growth are urea, polysilicon, and Shanghai lead [1][7]. 3.2 This Week's Commodity Option Main Data Review - Underlying asset price changes: 32 varieties closed down. High - gain varieties are p - xylene, alumina, and PTA; high - loss varieties are lithium carbonate, glass, and polysilicon [2][14]. - Market volatility: Most commodity implied volatility declined. 47 varieties' implied volatility decreased week - on - week, and 31 varieties' current implied volatility is below the historical 50% quantile. High - implied - volatility varieties include polysilicon, gold, and soybean No.1 [2][14]. - Option market sentiment: Varieties like silver, rebar, and PVC have high volume PCR, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. Synthetic rubber, styrene, and alumina have low volume PCR, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. PTA, polypropylene, cotton, and rapeseed meal have high open - interest PCR, suggesting accumulated bearish sentiment, while natural rubber has low open - interest PCR, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][14]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Major Varieties - This chapter presents key data of major varieties such as trading, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanyi official website [19]. - It further divides into sub - sections for energy, chemicals, precious metals, ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products, each with corresponding data charts for trading volume, volatility, open - interest PCR, and volume PCR of specific varieties [20][25][55][63][80][97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Oscillation [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Guinea ore has further decreased, and there are uncertainties in new alumina investments in China. Alumina supply and demand and costs still face pressure, but the price valuation is not high, and some negative factors have been priced in. The futures price may gradually enter the bottom - grinding stage [1][15] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices were on a downward trend last week. Shanxi 58/5 ore was priced at 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 at 668 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 at 596 yuan/ton. After the May Day holiday, mine inspections were strengthened. Domestic ore supply remained tight. Imported Guinea mainstream 45/3 ore price dropped to 75 dollars/dry ton (CIF). Newly - arrived ore during the period was 4.747 million tons, including 4.11 million tons from Guinea. The freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly to 19 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose last week. The northern comprehensive price was 2870 - 2930 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 2913.6 yuan/ton, up 22.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was flat. After the holiday, downstream enterprises had a strong willingness to replenish stocks. The domestic alumina full - cost was 2962 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of - 59 yuan/ton. The number of domestic alumina enterprises under maintenance and production cuts was increasing. The national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons from before the holiday, and an operating rate of 78.2% [3][13] - **Demand**: There were no changes in domestic and overseas demand. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.923 million tons, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.408 million tons, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [13] - **Inventory**: As of May 8, the national alumina inventory was 3.288 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons from before the holiday. Alumina enterprise inventories and electrolytic aluminum enterprise inventories both decreased [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 249,763 tons, a decrease of 28,850 tons from last week. The supply shortage led to inventory reduction, and the uncertainty of new project investment led to a rebound in the futures price [15] 3.2 Weekly Key Event News Summary in the Industry Chain - On May 9, 200,000 tons of alumina were traded in Shandong at 2900 yuan/ton [16] - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong had its third 1 - million - ton production line put into operation in mid - April. The production was mainly concentrated on the front - end of aluminum hydroxide, and the finished product was expected to be produced by the end of the month. The alumina roasting volume was difficult to increase in the short term [16] - 500,000 tons of alumina were traded in Guizhou at 3000 yuan/ton for long - term orders [16] 3.3 Key Data Monitoring of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost**: The report provided data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, bauxite port inventory, shipping volume, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It included domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina [31][33][38] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It covered the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, domestic alumina yard/terminal/in - transit inventory, port inventory, total social inventory, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions [41][44][48]

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅需求不见起色，关注多晶硅减产力度 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 月 | 年 | 5 | 11 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 价格持续下跌后，北方和云南产能出现减产，但四川进入平水 期后部分硅厂逐步复产。需求端仍无起色，有机硅大厂检修、 多晶硅大厂延迟复产，对工业硅需求减少。多晶硅厂家近期对 工业硅粉单的采购价格在 9500-10000 元/吨。后续关注供给端 边际变化。 ★投资建议 工业硅：工业硅盘面快速跌破我们此前测算的 9000 元/吨一 线，价格下跌或进一步带来供给端的边际变化。策略上，前期 空单可部分止盈，不建议左侧做多，建议关注出现明确的规模 性减产、丰水期西南复产不及预期、仓单明显流出等信号后， 再考虑右侧抄底。此外，关注大厂的现金流风险。 多晶硅：价格下跌后，关注供给端变化，以及 5-6 月份需求排 产是否有超预期的可能。现货博弈加剧，盘面额外关注仓单问 题。在仓单大规模生成之 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [6] Core View of the Report - Market risk appetite slightly increased this week, with most stocks rising, most bond yields increasing, and the US Treasury yield reaching 4.38%. The US dollar index rose 0.31% to 100.3, non - US currencies showed mixed performance, gold rebounded 2.6% to $3325 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 21.9, and the spot commodity index declined while Brent crude oil rebounded 4% to $63.8 per barrel [2][10] - The Fed's May interest - rate meeting was hawkish, maintaining the interest rate level and expressing concerns about economic uncertainty. Powell was not eager to cut rates, and the Fed remained cautious about rate cuts [37] - Market risk appetite recovered due to expectations of tariff easing after Sino - US high - level talks and a US - UK agreement. However, the US economy faces increasing stagflation risks, and overseas stocks are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [3][12] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite slightly increased. Most stocks rose, most bond yields increased with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.38%. The US dollar index rose to 100.3, non - US currencies had mixed performance, gold rebounded 2.6%, and Brent crude oil rebounded 4% [2][10] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stocks mostly rose. The S&P 500 fell 0.47%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.92%. Market risk appetite increased due to tariff - easing expectations. Overseas stocks are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, while the domestic stock market will continue to oscillate [11][12][14] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly increased, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising to 4.38%. Emerging - market bond yields mostly declined. The US Treasury yield is expected to continue rising, while the Chinese bond market is expected to be weak and oscillating [15][19][22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose to 100.3, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB fell 0.38%, the euro fell 0.42%, etc. [25][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold rebounded 2.6% to $3325 per ounce, and Brent crude oil rebounded 4% to $63.88 per barrel. The VIX index dropped to 21.9, and the overall commodity market oscillated and declined [29][32] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The Fed's May interest - rate meeting was hawkish. The Fed maintained the interest rate, was more concerned about economic uncertainty, and was cautious about rate cuts [33][37] 4. Next Week's Important Events - Next week includes events such as Sino - US high - level talks, US April CPI, and Germany's April CPI [39]