Report Investment Rating - The trend rating of treasury bonds is "volatile" [4] Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to gradually strengthen in the volatility, and it is recommended to seize the opportunity to go long. The fundamental factors are relatively certain to be favorable, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the bond market is clear. However, the price of treasury bond futures is still high, and there may be short - term disturbances. It is necessary to time the entry and adjust the adding strategy [2][16]. - After the central bank's interest rate cut, the capital interest rate center has declined rapidly, and the yield curve has changed from flat to steep. The direction of the curve steepening is relatively certain, and its space is determined by the downward space of the capital interest rate, which is expected to have some room for decline but with a possibly tortuous rhythm [2][17]. Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Outlook 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From May 5th to May 11th, treasury bond futures fluctuated at a high level. On Tuesday, the central bank net - withdrew a large amount of funds through reverse repurchase, the short - end varieties were weak, and the long - end varieties were slightly strong due to the expected weakening of April's economic indicators. On Wednesday, after the central bank announced the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the interest rate briefly declined, then institutions' profit - taking intention rose rapidly, and short - end varieties outperformed long - end ones. On Thursday, with the marginal loosening of the capital market and the lack of upward momentum in the stock market, treasury bond futures rose and the curve steepened. On Friday, treasury bond futures rose in the morning but weakened in the afternoon due to the better - than - expected April export data. As of May 9th, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.356, 106.105, 109.035, and 120.320 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.012, + 0.005, - 0.015, and - 0.520 yuan compared to last weekend [1][13]. 1.2 Next Week's Outlook - Although the central bank announced the "double - cut" this week and the curve started to steepen, the long - end treasury bond futures did not break through upwards because the market had over - anticipated the interest rate cut and April's export data exceeded expectations. In the future, the market should gradually strengthen in the volatility, but the timing of going long should be well - grasped. Fundamental factors are favorable, but short - term disturbances may exist. It is more cost - effective to wait for pullbacks to buy [16]. 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 50 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 578.579 billion yuan and a net financing of 235.291 billion yuan, an increase of 443.487 billion yuan and 100.594 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 28 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 105.459 billion yuan and a net financing of 67.191 billion yuan, an increase of 12.367 billion yuan and a decrease of 25.506 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 453 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 857.920 billion yuan and a net financing of 334.360 billion yuan, an increase of 608.580 billion yuan and 420.330 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [23][24]. 2.2 Secondary Market - As of May 9th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.43%, 1.49%, 1.64%, and 1.84% respectively, changing by - 1.54, - 1.92, + 0.76, and + 1.35 basis points compared to last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - financial bonds were 1.47%, 1.55%, and 1.66% respectively, changing by - 9.22, - 2.50, and + 0.31 basis points compared to last weekend [28][29]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of May 9th, the settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.356, 106.105, 109.035, and 120.320 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.012, + 0.005, - 0.015, and - 0.520 yuan compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 46,612, 70,116, 82,596, and 99,245 lots respectively, an increase of 4,851, 10,812, 16,677, and 16,030 lots compared to last weekend. The open interests were 149,492, 210,970, 245,395, and 132,157 lots respectively, changing by + 2,582, + 5,180, + 8,820, and - 1,496 lots compared to last weekend [36][39]. 3.2 Basis and IRR - The positive - arbitrage strategy is recommended. The IRRs of T and TF have been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosened at the end of Q1, the cost - effectiveness of the positive - arbitrage strategy became prominent. There are stable positive - arbitrage opportunities because the negative carry problem still exists in some varieties and the basis center is difficult to rise, and at the same time, some investors are actively going long on the bond market [43]. 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of May 9th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2506 - 2509 were - 0.196, - 0.340, - 0.165, and - 0.530 yuan respectively, changing by + 0.068, - 0.040, - 0.020, and - 0.260 yuan compared to last weekend. The inter - delivery spread of TS started to rise, and its future trend is expected to be tortuous [47][48]. 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 836.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1,617.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan. As of May 9th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.58%, 1.54%, 1.50%, and 1.52% respectively, down 25.91, 25.77, 26.30, and 24.30 basis points compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 6.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.34 trillion yuan from last week, and the overnight proportion was 85.79%, higher than last week [52][56][58]. 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - As of May 9th, the US dollar index rose 0.38% to 100.4218 compared to last weekend, the 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.37%, up 4 basis points compared to last weekend, and the 10Y China - US Treasury yield spread was inverted by 274 basis points. The progress of the UK - US trade negotiation and the Fed's slightly hawkish stance in the May interest - rate meeting led to the strengthening of the US dollar index and the rise of US Treasury yields [63]. 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices fell across the board. As of May 9th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,446.32, 6,047.02, and 1,608.41 points respectively, down 31.89, 59.87, and 12.60 points compared to last weekend. Agricultural product prices rose across the board. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.62, 4.40, and 8.01 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.03, 0.01, and 0.42 yuan/kg compared to last weekend [67]. 7. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying on pullbacks. Specific strategies include: 1) Recommend the strategy of laying out medium - term long positions on dips. 2) Pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunities of short - end varieties. 3) The opportunity to steepen the curve has initially emerged, and continue to monitor the change of the capital interest rate. 4) Stop profiting from the strategy of narrowing the TS06 - 09 spread in advance [2][18][68].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agreement between the US and the UK on tariff trade has led to a rise in market risk appetite, with the gold price falling by over 2%, the US dollar index strengthening, and the US stock index futures showing a short - term risk preference recovery. However, tariff negotiations remain complex, and the long - term impact is uncertain [2][3][14][17]. - In the commodity market, different sectors have different trends. For example, the steel price continues to decline, the inventory of some metals and energy products shows changes, and the prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy [6][24][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US and the UK reached a tariff trade agreement, reducing the US tariff on British - made cars to 10% and the beef tariff close to zero. The gold price fell by over 2%. In the short term, gold is under pressure, but the negotiation is complex, and there is still room for correction [14]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the progress of US trade negotiations, and be aware of the short - term correction risk of gold [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates. The US and the UK reached the first trade agreement since the Trump tariff war, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The US dollar index is expected to maintain a short - term rebound [15][17][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced a major agreement with the UK. The US House of Representatives Committee will start deliberating on Trump's tax - cut plan next week. The short - term market risk preference recovers, but tariff negotiations tend to be long - term, and it is not recommended to chase high [19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 158.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 158.6 billion yuan. The current one - sided market opportunities are limited, and attention can be paid to various arbitrage strategies, such as the curve - steepening strategy. The opportunity to steepen the curve has initially emerged, and subsequent changes in capital interest rates should be continuously monitored [21][22][23]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of March 31, Canada's rapeseed ending inventory was 5.8694 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease. The oil market continued to fluctuate. The short - term palm oil price has reached the support level, and it is recommended to wait for the MPOB report data before operating [24]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil announced the 25/26 sanitary interval schedule. The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. The domestic soybean meal futures price is expected to fluctuate, and the spot will continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply and demand report on May 12 [25][27][28]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in April decreased by 17.65% year - on - year. In China, the sugar production in Guangxi increased, and the sales rate reached 63.96%, a 6 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The domestic sugar price has strong resistance to decline in the short term, but the external market is under pressure, and the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly in the second quarter of 2025. Attention should be paid to the sugar factory's inventory reduction progress [30][33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Deep - processing enterprises continued to raise prices to promote purchases, but the effect was not good. The overseas cassava starch startup rate decreased seasonally. The CS - C futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [35][36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline. It is recommended to hold the 07 long positions and pay attention to the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spread opportunities. If the import auction starts, focus on the transaction rate and price [38]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In April, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 90,000 vehicles, and the national passenger - car market retail sales were 1.791 million vehicles. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 289,700 tons week - on - week. The steel price continued to decline, and the short - term downward space is difficult to open. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see in the short term, and use the rebound hedging strategy for the spot [39][40][41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - After the holiday, the port coal inventory was full, and the coal price may decline rapidly again. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the price can hold at the 600 - yuan level [43]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - FMG's iron ore shipments in the first quarter of 2025 were 46.1 million tons. With the seasonal weakening of demand, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [44][45][46]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market was stable. During the May Day holiday, the supply of coking coal was sufficient, and the second round of coke price increase was postponed. In the short term, it will maintain a volatile trend, and in the long term, it will be weak [47][48]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In April, the total actual output of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia was 181,500 tons of metal, with a month - on - month increase of 3.62% and a year - on - year increase of 24.34%. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band operations in the short term [48][49][50]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Several copper - related companies had acquisition and project progress. The UK - US trade agreement may increase market risk appetite and benefit the copper price. The domestic copper inventory continued to decline, supporting the price. It is recommended to conduct band operations in the short term and gradually stop profiting from the positive spread strategy [51][53][54]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Tongwei has no plan to destock through the polysilicon futures delivery. The 06 contract price rebounded after reaching a low point. It is expected that the polysilicon will continue to destock in May. Long positions and positive spreads can continue to be held [55][56][57]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The organic silicon DMC price is expected to fluctuate. The demand for industrial silicon is weak, and it is recommended to partially stop profiting from previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [58]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown received 15 million Australian dollars in support from the Western Australian government, and BYD and Tsingshan Holdings withdrew from the Chilean lithium processing plant plan. In the long term, the lithium carbonate market is in surplus, and the cost support may move down. It is not recommended to chase short positions at the current point, and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities [59][60][62]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead ingot social inventory continued to increase. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spread opportunities [63][64][65]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American and Lundin Mining's zinc production increased in the first quarter of 2025. The zinc social inventory decreased slightly. The short - term zinc price is supported by low inventory and strong spot, but the medium - term demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and internal - external positive spread opportunities [66][67][68]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the inventory increased. The short - term price is expected to maintain a volatile trend [70][71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in an oscillating adjustment phase. In 2025, the overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emission allowances is relatively loose, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [74][75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased. The PTA price is expected to be oscillatingly strong or continue to rebound in the short term [76][77][78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's styrene production increased this week. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future. The cost end drags down the price, and the downstream profit expansion space is limited [79][80][81]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On May 8, the caustic soda market in Shandong had an upward transaction, and the enterprise inventory was at a low level. The caustic soda spot price rebounded, but the overall commodity market is weak, and the caustic soda market is difficult to rise significantly [82][83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable. The short - term pulp market is expected to be oscillatingly weak [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased. Although the inventory is decreasing and the basis is strengthening, the market expects negative impacts from tariffs, and the PVC performance may continue to be weak [85]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chips increased slightly in some areas. The supply pressure of bottle chips is increasing, and the processing fee is expected to be under pressure [86][87][88]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of May 8, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 1.74%. The soda ash futures price continued to fall, and the market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term and pay attention to the impact of maintenance on the 09 contract [89]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased significantly this week. The glass price continued to fall, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The glass price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy variables [90][91]. 2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's EBIT in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.253 billion US dollars. Affected by the peace talks between the Houthi and the US, the European - line futures weakened. It is recommended to treat the market as a wide - range oscillation and wait and see in the short term [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for corn [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second-round price increase of corn in the 2024/2025 period has started as expected, and the expectation of new crops is unlikely to prevent the tail-up of old crops [1][3]. - In a normal-yield scenario, the cost of new corn is expected to decline slightly, but there are significant uncertainties related to weather [2]. - The current supply-demand gap of corn has not been filled, and in the medium term, the tight inventory will continue to drive up corn prices [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gradually Tightening Inventory and the Second-Round Price Increase - The second-round price increase of corn in the 2024/2025 period has started. After the first-round increase, the price entered a wide - range oscillation period. Since mid - April, the price has strengthened again, breaking through the previous resistance level of 2,350 yuan/ton. As of May 7, the closing price of the 07 contract was 2,369 yuan/ton, up about 4% from the annual low of 2,280 yuan/ton [10]. - The expectation that "without large - scale substitution, the real supply gap will emerge in July" may be starting to materialize. Due to a significant decline in imports and a cyclical increase in energy demand, a large amount of substitutes are needed this year. The current wheat situation indicates that large - scale feed substitution will be achieved through the increase in corn prices. Signs of tight inventory are emerging, such as a decline in the inventory of deep - processing enterprises and an improvement in the auction performance of China Grain Reserves Corporation [11]. 2. New Crop Cost and Weather Uncertainties - Sowing: Affected by weather, the sowing of corn in Northeast China has been delayed by 1 - 2 weeks. Although sowing delay is theoretically unfavorable for yield, the overall growing - season weather is more crucial. If the delay is too long, some corn may be replanted with soybeans. Currently, the corn area is not expected to decrease significantly [21]. - Land rent cost: The decline in land rent this year is more moderate than expected and shows regional differentiation. In Heilongjiang, the cost reduction is not obvious, with the northern part remaining basically flat and the central and western parts having a 5% - 10% reduction. In Jilin and Liaoning, the decline is larger than in Heilongjiang but still more moderate year - on - year [2][28]. - Cost in a normal - yield scenario: Taking the median value of the land rent decline in Heilongjiang (-5%) as a reference, in a normal - yield scenario, the new - grain drying cost in Heilongjiang is expected to be about 1,750 yuan/ton, and the port - collection cost is expected to be about 2,010 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of about 60 - 70 yuan/ton. However, if there is a slight reduction in yield (-3%), the cost may remain basically the same year - on - year. The cost of new crops still has uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the weather in the production areas [25]. 3. New Crop Expectations Unlikely to Hinder Old Crop Tail - Up - In Q3 2025, if there is a game between strong reality and weak expectations, this year is expected to be more similar to 2022/2023. Currently, the overall demand is expected to be good, and the phenomenon of a year - on - year sharp decline in imported grains is difficult to reverse. Therefore, in the face of the game between reality and expectations, this year may be more like 2022/2023, where old crops mainly reflect strong reality before the new crops are listed [33][35]. - The repair of trade profits and the likely realization of wheat's indirect support for corn prices. After the first - round price increase, traders have realized good profits. The view that "the minimum purchase price of wheat will indirectly support corn prices" has become a market consensus, and it is likely to be realized this year. Traders may use "wheat price floor - storage cost" as the bottom anchor for corn [36]. 4. Price Outlook and Investment Suggestions - Price outlook: The increase in corn prices has not attracted a large amount of new supply, and the energy demand is relatively rigid. Therefore, the supply - demand gap of corn has not been filled. In the medium term, the tight inventory will continue to drive up corn prices, and the annual high of the 07 contract is expected to reach about 2,450 yuan/ton. In the short term, concerns about import reserve auctions may suppress the upward momentum of futures prices [36][37]. - Investment suggestions: It is recommended to continue to adopt a mid - line strategy of buying on dips for the 07 contract. Attention is also recommended to be paid to the opportunities of 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spreads [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold market is affected by factors such as China's increased gold reserves, the Fed's interest - rate decision, and Sino - US trade negotiations. In the short term, gold is in a volatile phase, while in the long term, tariffs bring stagflation risks to the US economy, which is bullish for gold [12]. - The Fed's May interest - rate meeting was hawkish, maintaining the interest - rate level and remaining concerned about inflation. As a result, the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [16]. - US stock index futures are expected to be volatile and weak in the near term due to the Fed's continued suspension of rate cuts and the long - term nature of tariff games [18]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, palm oil is expected to be weak and volatile, while rapeseed oil has strong support; steel prices are in a volatile state; and the container shipping market is expected to be volatile with a wait - and - see approach recommended [20][35][78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's interest - rate decision (upper limit) on May 7 was 4.5%, with high unemployment and inflation risks rising. China's gold reserves increased by 2.18 tons in April [11][12]. - In the short term, Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's non - eagerness to cut rates are bearish for gold, but in the long term, tariffs bring stagflation risks to the US economy, which is bullish for gold. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and gold is in a volatile phase [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Ukraine is considering using the euro instead of the US dollar as a reference currency. The EU will announce further measures against US tariffs. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% [13][14][15]. - The Fed's May interest - rate meeting was hawkish, and the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. The Sino - US tariff negotiation released positive signals, but the tariff game is expected to be long - term [18]. - US stock index futures are expected to be volatile and weak in the near term [18]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The import cost of 24 - degree palm oil in South China decreased significantly on May 7. The total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil on May 7 increased by 293% compared to the previous trading day [19][20]. - Palm oil is expected to be weak and volatile, while rapeseed oil has strong support. It is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil [20][22]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Before the release of the USDA's May supply - demand report, analysts estimated the soybean production in Brazil and Argentina in the 24/25 season and the ending stocks of US soybeans. The trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly, mainly due to the increase in forward basis contracts [23][24]. - The futures price of soybean meal is expected to be volatile, and the spot price still has room to fall [26]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch continued to increase, and the inventory accumulated. The loss continued, and the operating rate is expected to decline later [27]. - The CS - C futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [28]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports continued to decline. The market is worried about the import reserve auction, which may suppress the futures price in the short term [29]. - The 07 contract of corn should be dealt with from a medium - term bullish perspective, and 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spreads are recommended [29]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The sugarcane area affected by drought in the Guangxi Sugar Group reached 175.53 million mu. The sugar mills in Yunnan and Hainan have different production and sales situations [30][31][32]. - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile in the second quarter of 2025, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking progress of sugar mills [33]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Australia launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese steel bars. The steel price was volatile, and the market expectation was weak, but the fundamentals provided support [34][35]. - It is recommended to hold a light - position wait - and - see attitude for short - term unilateral trading and use a rebound hedging strategy for spot trading [36]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - New Hope sold 1.596 million pigs in April 2025. The spot price of pigs decreased slightly before the festival and increased after May Day [37][38]. - It is recommended to wait and see, and the previous short positions can be held flexibly [39]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the northwest market was weakly stable. The second round of coke price increase was put on hold, and the market was waiting and seeing [40]. - In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile, and in the long term, they are expected to be weak and volatile [40]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange modified the regulations on futures registered brands, but polysilicon was not affected. There were rumors of transactions of rod - shaped silicon by leading enterprises, and the industry may discuss production control to support prices [40][41]. - After the price decline, attention should be paid to the supply - side changes and the possibility of demand exceeding expectations in May - June. It is not recommended to chase short positions, and long positions on the left side can be considered [43]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating capacity of organic silicon monomers increased and decreased in different regions. The demand was weak, and the price of industrial silicon fell below 9000 yuan/ton [44]. - It is recommended to partially close the previous short positions and not to go long on the left side. Wait for clear signals to consider bottom - fishing on the right side [44]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei will focus on high - nickel and doped medium - nickel high - voltage ternary precursor products. The price of nickel was volatile, and the cost of nickel - iron production was high, with a high probability of production reduction [45][47]. - It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band trading within the range [48]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Goldman Sachs raised the copper price forecast for the second and third quarters. The macro factors are in an important observation window, and the domestic inventory is decreasing, which supports the price [49][51]. - It is recommended to conduct band trading for copper prices, and gradually take profits on the Shanghai copper positive spread strategy [52]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Teck is considering other export options for its US concentrates due to the trade war. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the demand is weaker [53][54]. - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and pay attention to the spot and import changes after the festival [55]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Teck is considering other export options for its US concentrates due to the trade war. The zinc price was volatile, and the demand is expected to weaken in the future [56][58]. - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies on the mid - line and maintain the mid - line positive spread strategy between domestic and foreign markets [58]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Chile's lithium export volume in April was 24,404 tons. The core trading logic is to test the cost support of the resource end, and short - term trading rhythm should be noted [59]. - It is not recommended to chase short positions or bottom - fish based on valuation. Wait for rebound short - selling opportunities [60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and the gasoline inventory increased slightly. The short - term rebound driving force of oil prices is weak, and the downward risk is high [61][62]. - Oil prices still have a downward risk in the short term [63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of urea enterprises decreased, and the price was stable with slight increases. The urea export may be relaxed in the future, but the probability of significant relaxation in the short - to - medium term is very low [63][64][65]. - Pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity of the urea 9/1 positive spread [65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased slightly, and the supply is expected to decrease. The demand is mild [66][68]. - The caustic soda market is expected to have limited upward movement [68]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was stable with slight increases in some areas. The short - term pulp market is expected to be weak and volatile [69]. - The pulp market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [69]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder increased slightly, and the futures price first rose and then fell. The market expects tariffs to have a negative impact on demand in the next month [70][72]. - PVC is expected to be weak [72]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories increased, and the supply pressure increased due to the high operating rate. The processing fee is expected to be under pressure [73][74][75]. - The short - term fundamental contradiction is not significant, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the processing fee is expected to be under pressure [75]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area was volatile, and the supply decreased slightly. The downstream demand was average [76]. - In the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies, and in the short term, pay attention to the impact of maintenance on the 09 contract [76]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei was stable. The glass futures price was slightly volatile, and the spot price was stable. The market is expected to be weak in the absence of positive policies [77]. - The glass futures price is expected to be in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy variables [77]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Maersk and CMA CGM imposed PSS on some routes from China. The US line is over - booked, and the freight rate has increased, which may boost the shipping companies' sentiment. The market is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [78]. - In the absence of obvious driving factors, it is recommended to treat the market with a volatile mindset and wait and see [79].

周度报告——光伏玻璃 供需差扩大，光伏玻璃价格存在下行风险 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 5 月 7 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/4/30 当周）： 截至 4 月 30 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 14 元/平米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 22.5 元/ 平米，环比上周持平。 节前一周有两条光伏玻璃产线点火，行业产能和产量水平继续上 升。近期多条光伏玻璃新线投产，实际供给增加较多。基于当前 市场行情已经开始转弱，不排除后续产线点火计划推迟的可能。 能 源 目前光伏终端抢装潮退坡趋势明显，组件市场将进入加速调整 期，5 月组件排产或面临下调压力。光伏玻璃消费力不足，5 月 份需求预计较 4 月份整体下滑。 化 工 节前一周光伏玻璃厂家库存增幅较大，主要是下游需求退坡趋势 明显，且组件厂家仍有一定量光伏玻璃库存，导致拿货积极性不 高。进入 5 月份，随着光伏玻璃供给量回升至高位，而需求较 4 月整体有所下滑，供需差进一步加大，行业库存有继续上涨风险。 ★ 供需分析： 五一节后行业将迎来月度新价，但此轮议价预计博弈时间较长。 随着节后 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 中美高层将举行会谈，EIA 下调美国原油产量 预期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-07 宏观策略（黄金） 中美高层将举行会谈 国际金价大涨近 100 美金，受贸易局势和地缘政治风险升温的推 动国内开市后黄金表现强势，关税问题仍然是市场交易的核心， 外交部官宣中美高层将就贸易问题接触，利空黄金。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 欧盟与美国关税谈判收效甚微 综 关税谈判进展波折，关税影响可能会逐步显现，三大股指震荡 偏弱运行。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 五一假期全国出游人次 3.14 亿同比增 6.4% 报 节后第一个交易日 A 股气势如虹，放量上涨。中美贸易缓和与 中国产业升级的主题掩盖了宏观面承压的现状。市场处于下有 底，上有顶的状态中，仍需消化不利影响。 农产品（玉米） 节后首个工作日玉米现货延续上涨态势 期货价格出现小幅回落，现货价格则仍然相对强势。进口拍卖 的担忧增加，在北港基差仍然偏弱、部分贸易商群体仍然谨慎 的情况下，短期或会抑制期货的上涨势头。 能源化工（原油） EIA 下调今年美国产量预期 油价修复性反弹，EIA 下调今年美国原油产量预期。 航运指数（集 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美 4 月 ISM 服务业好于预期，智利 3 月铜产 量同比增加 9% [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-06 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国拒绝完全豁免对日本的"对等"关税 美国 4 月非农数据好于预期，新增就业维持在较高水平，表明劳 动力市场没有受到关税的负面影响，美元指数维持震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 4 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49%，不及预期 综 4 月官方制造业 PMI 不及预期，贸易冲突对于经济基本面的影响 正在体现。基本面将会主导债券走势，预计国债以震荡偏强为 主。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 美国 4 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 录得 51.6 报 国际金价昨日上涨超过 3%，收复了五一假期间的跌幅，市场再 度针对关税和地缘政治风险展开交易。特朗普表示要对海外制 作的美国电影加征关税再度施压市场风险偏好。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比下降 87.17 万吨 节前五大品种去库加速，受补库等因素带动，螺纹表需回升到 291 万吨以上，但市场对短期需求回升的关注度并不算高，需求 走弱预期依然导致钢价承压， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For zinc, maintain the main judgment of shorting on rallies in the medium - term. In May, demand may weaken more than supply, and low inventory is expected to gradually ease. Consider adding options for protection around May Day and look for short - selling opportunities after observing inventory changes [8][9][11]. - For lead, in May, the fundamentals may show a situation of weak supply and demand. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term, but be cautious when opening short positions due to limited price decline space [25][26]. - For nickel, wait for the low - buying opportunity of ni2507. Nickel iron has the logic of rebound and valuation repair, and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunity when the import loss is around 5000 [38][42]. - For polysilicon, pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of PS2506/PS2507 and the positive arbitrage opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507 and PS2507 - 2508 [54][55]. Summary by Directory 1. Zinc - **Previous Strategy Review**: The short - selling strategy on rallies for the main contract of Shanghai zinc has achieved about a 6% decline since April 1st. The previous inter - period positive arbitrage strategy had good returns but is facing short - term pressure [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation**: Overseas zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 is expected to increase significantly. Domestic TC has room to rise in the first half of the year. In May, the zinc ingot output may decline slightly, and the impact on supply is not significant. Downstream demand is weak, and the inventory inflection point is expected to appear in mid - May [9][10][11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term. Inter - period arbitrage: Wait and see. Cross - market arbitrage: Pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [13]. - **Key Indicator Tracking**: LME zinc seasonal inventory, domestic seven - region zinc ingot inventory, smelter comprehensive income considering some by - products, and raw material inventory of three primary downstream industries [13][15][17][19]. 2. Lead - **Previous Strategy Review**: The short - selling strategy on rallies for lead in the quarterly report was affected by the macro - impact in April. The previous inter - period positive arbitrage strategy was profitable, but the short - term pressure is increasing [22]. - **Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation**: In May, the fundamentals may be weak in both supply and demand. The secondary smelter may recover after raw material replenishment, while domestic demand has peaked and exports are under pressure. Pay attention to the inflow of imported lead [23][24][25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term. Inter - period arbitrage: Wait and see. Cross - market arbitrage: Pay attention to high - level internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [27]. - **Key Indicator Tracking**: Scrap battery price and Shanghai lead main contract, LME lead seasonal inventory, five - region lead ingot seasonal social inventory, and lead concentrate and refined lead import profit and loss [28][33][32][34]. 3. Nickel & Stainless Steel - **Previous Strategy Review**: After the equal - tariff was implemented in April, the nickel price was mainly guided by the macro - aspect. The previous internal - external positive arbitrage strategy was profitable [37]. - **Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation**: The nickel ore supply in Indonesia is tight, and the nickel iron price is expected to rebound. The NPI may be converted to high - grade matte, and the NPI supply will decrease. The demand for stainless steel and new energy is weak [38][39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral: Wait and see in the short - term and look for low - buying opportunities of ni2507. Inter - period arbitrage: Wait and see. Cross - market arbitrage: Pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities when the import loss is around 5000 [42]. - **Key Indicator Tracking**: Nickel internal - external Shanghai - London price ratio change, nickel theoretical import profit and loss change, SHFE nickel inventory change, and LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant change [43][47][45][48]. 4. Polysilicon - **Previous Strategy Review**: The previous PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage strategy performed well [50]. - **Arbitrage Strategy Recommendation**: In May, the domestic polysilicon production is expected to decline to 98,000 tons, and the silicon wafer production is expected to decline to 54GW. The polysilicon inventory will continue to decline by about 10,000 tons. The spot price is expected to be flat month - on - month. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities after the correction of PS2506 - PS2507 and PS2507 - 2508 [51][52][54]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral: Pay attention to low - buying opportunities of PS2506/PS2507. Inter - period arbitrage: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - 2508 [55]. - **Key Indicator Tracking**: China's polysilicon weekly inventory, China's silicon wafer weekly inventory, China's battery cell export factory weekly inventory, and China's photovoltaic module inventory [57][59].

周度报告-玉米&玉米淀粉 期现共振上涨 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 玉米&玉米淀粉：看涨 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 5 | 日 | [Table_Analyser] | ★[Ta玉ble米_Summary] 一周复盘：玉米、小麦现货明显上涨，玉米 07 合约冲破 2350 压力 位。"若无规模化替代，7 月现实缺口将暴露"的预期或正逐步兑现， 随着 7 月节点的临近，支撑我们这一观点的现象也逐步出现。深加 工企业玉米虽然因亏损而消耗量缓慢下滑，但原料库存持续大幅下 降；中储粮虽然转向净轮出状态，但拍卖成交率和溢价双高，均表 明商业库存或逐步趋紧。 下周观点： 农 产 品 中期看，现实供需的转强预计将继续驱动价格上涨，07 合约全年的 高点有望达到 2450 元/吨左右，届时基差、月差也有望形成 back 结 构，主要是考虑到以下几点原因：1）生猪存栏与均重双高，预计能 量总需求同比回升幅度较好，淀粉恢复出口与副产品受豆粕拉动， 预计将延 ...

周度报告——新能源汽车 美国汽车关税政策受压回撤 ★ 动态跟踪 行业数据跟踪方面，据乘联会发布，4 月 1-27 日全国乘用车新能 源市场零售 72.8 万辆，同比增长 24%，新能源市场零售渗透率 52.3%，今年以来累计零售 314.8 万辆，同比增长 33%；4 月 1-27 日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发 84.6 万辆，同比增长 25%，新 能源厂商批发渗透率 53.9%，今年以来累计批发 369.5 万辆，同 比同期增长 38%。 新 能 源 与 新 材 料 企业端，多车企发布 4 月销量数据，比亚迪以 38 万辆的销量数 据继续稳居领先地位，吉利、零跑、小鹏等新能源销量数据抢眼。 海外市场方面，受美国汽车及零部件关税影响北美新车市场 3 月销量高增长，但关税争对汽车而非新能源汽车，因而渗透率未 出现明显变化（见图表 23-26）。压力下关税政策有所回撤，4 月 29 日发布两项行政命令，一是进口整车关税仅由 2025 年 3 月 26 日第 10908 号公告确定，不得适用其他关税（免除钢铁、铝 的单独关税，避免多项关税叠加）；二是为在美国本土生产的整 车企业提供税收抵免，部分抵消其进口零部件所面 ...