1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 12 - May 18), treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly due to factors such as the unexpected progress of China - US trade negotiations and marginal convergence of the capital market. Looking ahead to next week, the capital market is expected to see a slight increase in interest rates during the tax period, and the market sentiment will remain weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process will be tortuous, and there is a possibility of flattening in the short - term [13][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. On Monday, due to the unexpected statement of China - US trade negotiations, futures opened lower, then strengthened slightly and finally weakened significantly. On Tuesday, they turned from weak to strong. On Wednesday, they declined slightly. On Thursday, long - term futures performed strongly. On Friday, the curve flattened bearishly in the morning and the decline narrowed in the afternoon. As of May 16, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main continuous contracts were 102.368, 105.695, 108.460, and 118.880 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.012, +0.005, - 0.015, and - 0.520 yuan compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Views - The capital market will be the focus. During the tax period, the capital market is expected to be slightly tighter, and the market sentiment will be weak. Although the curve is expected to steepen in the long - term, the process is tortuous, and there may be a slight flattening in the short - term. The capital interest rate is expected to rise slightly during the tax period, and the market's concern about the capital market persists [15] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 77 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 939.5 billion yuan and a net financing of 707.974 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds increased slightly, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [23] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields increased. As of May 16, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.68%, and 1.88% respectively, up 4.73, 6.80, 4.60, and 4.25 bp from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread widened, while the 10Y - 5Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed [27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests decreased [35][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy decreased significantly. The basis of each variety is expected to gradually return to a normal level [42] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - The inter - delivery spreads of each variety generally widened in the opposite direction and are expected to gradually converge to 0 in the oscillation. However, the time for deploying this strategy is limited [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 475.1 billion yuan. As of May 16, capital interest rates such as R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week all increased. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank repurchase increased [51][53] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose slightly. As of May 9, the US dollar index increased by 0.56% to 100.9828, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose 6 bp to 4.43%. The spread between China and the US 10Y Treasury bonds was inverted by 275 bp [60] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Next week, with weak market sentiment, short - term defense is recommended. Aggressive investors can consider buying long - term varieties on dips. In the long - term, the curve is expected to steepen, but the process is tortuous. The opportunity for the cash - and - carry strategy has decreased significantly, and attention can be paid to the strategy of the basis returning to 0. The strategy of widening the inter - delivery spread can be tried, with a quick - in - quick - out approach [2][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index is "oscillation" [1] Core View of the Report - The global stock market rose this week, especially the US stocks driving the significant recovery of developed markets. The Sino-US Geneva talks achieved better-than-expected progress, with a 91% reduction in reciprocal tariffs, and 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days. This will lead to trade restoration between the two countries in the next 90 days, and the external cycle will support the domestic economy. However, policy efforts may remain conservative, and the inflation situation is hard to strengthen. Given the current high valuation of the stock market, the potential return on investment is restricted. The short - term market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [2][9] Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week View and Macro Key Event Overview - **Next Week's View**: The market is expected to wait for the return of liquidity. The short - term market will maintain an oscillatory trend due to Sino - US trade restoration, conservative policy efforts, and high stock market valuations [2][9] - **This Week's Key Event Concerns**: - On May 12th, Sino - US Geneva economic and trade negotiations made positive progress, with a 91% reduction in reciprocal tariffs. The US and China will adjust relevant tariff policies, and China will take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff countermeasures against the US. Also, 34 cities will be selected for the third batch of enterprise digital transformation pilot projects. Japan's Prime Minister demanded the US to cancel all additional tariffs [10][11][12] - On May 13th, China's leader proposed to start five major projects with Latin American countries. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of work - relief. The central bank's deputy governor summarized four changes in the central bank's policy framework. India plans to impose tariffs on some US products. China's central bank and Brazil's central bank signed relevant agreements [14][15][16][17][18] - On May 14th, China's leader met with leaders of Colombia and Chile, promoting bilateral cooperation. Seven departments issued policies to build a science - technology finance system. Tax data showed that the national enterprise sales revenue increased by 4.3% year - on - year in April. China's M2 growth rate was 8% and M1 was 1.5% in April [19][20][21][22] - On May 15th, China will implement a visa - free policy for five South American countries. The Supreme People's Court and the CSRC jointly issued a document to combat illegal activities in the capital market. The agricultural machinery market index in April showed a weak peak season [23][24][25] - On May 16th, the average annual salary of urban non - private employees in 2024 was 124,110 yuan, with a 2.6% increase, and that of private employees was 69,476 yuan, with a 4% increase. Public fund professionals refuted the view of market repositioning due to public fund assessment benchmarks. The Ministry of Commerce emphasized the importance of duty - free shopping for consumption [26][27][28] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview - **Global Stock Market Weekly Overview**: From May 12th to May 16th, the global stock market denominated in US dollars generally rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 3.97%, with developed markets (+4.08%) > emerging markets (+2.98%) > frontier markets (+1.72%). The stock index of Taiwan, China rose 5.37%, leading the world, while the Japanese stock market fell 0.48%, performing the worst globally [29] - **Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview**: Chinese equity assets were divided into markets, with Chinese concept stocks > A - shares > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of A - shares in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 1266.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 87.2 billion yuan from last week. A - share indexes were differentiated, with blue - chip indexes such as the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rising more than 1%, while the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and STAR 50 indexes fell [32] - **Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets**: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week, with the information technology industry leading (+7.39%), and the healthcare industry performing poorly (-0.02%). In the Chinese market, the financial industry led the rise (+1.91%), and the information technology industry led the decline (-0.84%) [35] - **Weekly Overview of Chinese A - Share CITIC Primary Industries**: Among Chinese A - share CITIC primary industries, 21 rose (30 last week) and 9 fell (0 last week). The leading industry was the automobile industry (+2.71%), and the industry with the largest decline was the national defense and military industry (-1.61%) [36] - **Weekly Overview of Chinese A - Share Styles**: The large - cap growth style was dominant [41] - **Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis**: No specific data was summarized in the text [44] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - **Broad - Based Index Valuation**: The text provided PE and PB data for various broad - based indexes this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes and eight - year percentile rankings [53] - **Primary Industry Valuation**: The text provided PE and PB data for various primary industries this week, at the beginning of the year, and their changes and eight - year percentile rankings [54] - **Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium**: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [55][60] - **Consensus Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - Based Indexes**: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 8.38% and up to 8.09% in 2026; that of the CSI 500 in 2025 was adjusted down to 37.38% and down to 16.00% in 2026; that of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was adjusted up to 1.55% and down to 18.76% in 2026 [61] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: This week, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond and the 1 - year Treasury bond rose, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 100, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.20 [68] - **Trading - Type Capital Tracking**: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 13.3 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 4.3 billion yuan [71] - **Capital Inflow Tracking through ETFs**: There were 28 on - site ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 29 tracking the CSI A500. The share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 1.6 billion shares, that of the CSI 500 decreased by 200 million shares, that of the CSI 1000 decreased by 700 million shares, and that of the CSI A500 decreased by 4.3 billion shares [73][74][78] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data - **Supply Side**: The tire operating rate rebounded rapidly [80] - **Consumption Side**: The number of second - hand housing listings decreased, and international oil prices slightly recovered [90] - **Inflation Observation**: Agricultural product prices reached a new low this year [101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for corn and corn starch is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the spot price of corn continued to oscillate strongly, while the futures price declined slightly due to weak basis, increased hedging pressure, and stronger auction expectations. The energy demand is expected to recover moderately, which will significantly exceed the decline in deep - processing demand. Corn spot prices are expected to continue to rise, and it is recommended to hold the existing 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spreads strategies [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Review 3.1.1 Corn - Analyzes the performance of corn's futures and spot prices, basis, spot price trends, and 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 month spreads [13][18][19] 3.1.2 Corn Starch - Examines the futures and spot prices, basis, the spread between starch and corn futures, the spot price spread in Weifang, and the by - product income compensation of corn starch [21][22][28] 3.2 Corn Fundamental Information Weekly Observation 3.2.1 Receipt and Auction of Reserves - Focuses on the corn auction and procurement information on the Sinograin online bidding platform [30][32] 3.2.2 Inventory - Covers the grain inventory, foreign - trade inventory, domestic - trade inventory in southern ports, and the inventory in northern ports of corn, as well as the corn inventory and consumption of major deep - processing enterprises [34][37][43] 3.2.3 Substitutes - Analyzes the price spread between wheat and corn and the theoretical substitution advantage spread of wheat for corn [50][51] 3.2.4 Demand - Considers the profitability of corn - to - ethanol production, the operating rate of corn alcohol, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs [53][54][56] 3.3 Corn Starch Fundamental Information Weekly Observation 3.3.1 Profitability - Analyzes the profitability and profit of corn starch enterprises [59][61] 3.3.2 Supply - Focuses on the operating rate and processing volume of corn starch enterprises [63][64] 3.3.3 Demand - Examines the operating rates of fructose syrup, maltose syrup, corrugated paper, and box - board paper in the starch sugar industry [67][69][70] 3.3.4 Inventory - Covers the available inventory and the seasonal trend of registered warehouse receipts of corn starch enterprises [73][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, various sectors in the market are influenced by multiple factors including economic policies, international trade negotiations, and supply - demand dynamics. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, in the financial market, the Fed's potential policy framework changes affect the performance of the US dollar index and US stock index futures; in the commodity market, supply - demand relationships in industries such as steel, copper, and agricultural products determine price trends [14][22][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The release of the urban renewal action plan clarifies the path for domestic economic support, and fixed - asset investment will maintain a high proportion in the economy. Attention should be paid to the marginal change of PPI to determine the elasticity of corporate profit margins. It is recommended to allocate large, medium, and small - cap stock indices evenly [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated sharply, first falling then rising and finally closing higher. With the easing of tariffs and geopolitical military conflicts, funds are flowing out of gold. The short - term gold price is still in the adjustment process, not fully stabilized, and the increased volatility makes trading more difficult. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of price decline and wait before bottom - fishing [18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed is preparing to modify its policy framework, which means a significant change in future policy thinking. The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to expect the US dollar index to oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's change in the monetary framework may increase its tolerance for inflation, and high inflation and high interest rates may exist for a longer period. Economic data shows that inflation and consumption data continue to weaken, and market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased. The short - term market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index fluctuates strongly, but it is recommended to treat it as range - bound due to potential negotiation uncertainties [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Market concerns about the US biodiesel policy have led to a significant decline in the prices of US soybean oil and US soybean futures. Brazilian soybean production and export forecasts have been raised. The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, US biodiesel policy, and weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased this week, but the marginal weakness in the manufacturing terminal has not been completely reversed. Steel prices are in a stage of rebound, but lack the momentum for a sharp rise. It is recommended to hold a light position in the short term, wait for the market to rebound, and pay attention to changes in the export end [31][32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry has declined, and inventory has decreased slightly. The factors affecting the CS - C futures spread are complex, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is oscillating weakly. With the improvement of the macro - environment, coking coal may stabilize with the overall black metal sector in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not changed, and attention should be paid to demand changes [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory days of feed enterprises have slightly increased, while the raw material inventory of deep - processing enterprises has declined. It is recommended to hold the previously entered 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spreads, and pay attention to the results of import auctions [36][37]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Foran Mining is promoting the McIlvenna Bay copper - zinc project. US economic data is weakening marginally, and the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising. Domestic short - term inventory is still being depleted. Copper prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to conduct short - term band operations and wait and see for arbitrage [42]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Considering the delayed resumption of production at the southwest base of leading enterprises and the planned production cuts and overhauls of some enterprises, the polysilicon production plan for May has been revised down. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and focus on arbitrage strategies [44]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - There are rumors that northern large - scale factories plan to resume production, and some silicon factories in Sichuan are gradually resuming production. Demand is still weak. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [45][46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The market risk appetite has been repaired, but the mine price has not stabilized, and the fundamentals are difficult to support continuous price rebounds. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased significantly. Under the intertwined situation of multiple factors, there is no clear unilateral logic for lead prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spread opportunities [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc has increased. The short - term spot market is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for previous short positions, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rebounds for those not yet entered [56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to band operations within the range [59]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and both refinery and port inventories are accumulating. The price has insufficient upward driving force, and attention should be paid to changes in Shandong spot prices and factory warehouse behaviors [61]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - It is recommended to continue to be bearish on NYMEX natural gas [67]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - After a short - term rapid rise, PTA prices may start to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended that long positions consider taking profit and waiting and seeing [69][70]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The spot price of caustic soda is still strong in the short term, and the futures price is also expected to be strong [71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the pulp futures price to stabilize and rebound [73]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the PVC price to stabilize and rebound [75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Due to supply pressure, the processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low [78]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Short - term maintenance of soda ash plants may support the spot and futures prices, but the medium - term view is to short on price rebounds [79]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Under the situation of weak reality and the absence of favorable policies, the glass futures price will remain in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to changes in real - estate policies [81].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for nickel is "Oscillation" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current range - bound oscillation pattern of nickel may continue in the short - term. Band trading opportunities can be focused on. When the factors of "geopolitical risk + concentrated supply" are present in the nickel industry chain, the trading focus is recommended to be on seizing opportunities to go long at low prices, while closely tracking the trend of ore prices [5][45][46] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Event Overview - The first - quarter operation reports of most overseas nickel enterprises have been gradually disclosed recently. By analyzing the nickel ore production in the latest financial reports, different evolution patterns of laterite nickel ore and sulfide nickel ore are deduced, and some thoughts on recent trading rhythms are provided [11] 2. Event Analysis 2.1 Indonesia Laterite Nickel Ore Supply Tight, Focus on Quota Release Rhythm - Harita Nickel: In Q1 2025, the sales volume of limonite reached 3.71 million wet tons and saprolite reached 1.78 million wet tons, with a total year - on - year increase of 52%. The joint - venture project KPS expanded production to 4 furnaces in Q1 2025, and 6 HPAL production lines were in stable over - production [12] - PT Vale: In Q1 2025, nickel production in the Indonesian production area decreased by 24% year - on - year to 14,200 metal tons, reflecting the tight supply of Indonesian nickel ore and the rising premium [12] - Antam: In Q1 2025, the quarterly nickel ore production reached a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 221% to 4.63 million wet tons and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 76% [14] - Nickel Industries: In Q1 2025, nickel ore production increased by 82% year - on - year but decreased by 21.5% quarter - on - quarter to 5.649 million wet tons. The company is confident of getting the RKAB increase approved in the second half of the year [15] - WedaBay Nickel: In Q1 2025, the nickel ore production increased by 3.2% year - on - year to 9.169 million wet tons. The RKAB quota obtained in 2025 has decreased significantly compared with last year, with the risk of production falling short of expectations [15] - Merdeka (MBMA): In Q1 2025, the production of saprolite increased by 190% year - on - year to 1.3 million wet tons, and limonite increased by 54% to 1.8 million wet tons. The cash cost of saprolite decreased year - on - year, while that of limonite increased [17] 2.2 Sulfide Nickel Ore Production Cutback Rhythm Slows - Russia: In Q1 2025, nickel production decreased by 1.1% year - on - year to 41,600 tons. The company expects the total refined nickel production in 2025 to be 204,000 - 211,000 tons, with a higher probability of being on the left side of the range [26] - Vale: The total nickel production reached 42,900 metal tons in Q1 2025, an increase of 4,400 metal tons year - on - year, with a 4% decrease in total cost [26] - Australia: After the shutdown of high - cost nickel ore projects in 2024, only two nickel ore projects are currently in operation, and the Nova project is expected to stop production at the end of 2026 due to grade depletion. The production of operating projects in Q1 2025 remained low [29] 3. Investment Advice - Laterite nickel ore: Since the beginning of 2025, the supply of Indonesian nickel ore has been tight. Some leading mining enterprises have good year - on - year growth, mainly due to the slow release of quotas last year. The core logic is that mines with new projects will get corresponding incremental quotas, while large mines cut quotas to support small mines. The approved RKAB quota is less than the previous news, and the supply may remain tight throughout the year [40] - Trading: The tight supply expectation of Indonesian ore may last throughout the year. The current range - bound oscillation pattern may continue in the short - term. The short - side logic focuses on the loosening of ore supply, while the long - side logic emphasizes the tight ore supply and potential production cuts. It is recommended to focus on band trading opportunities and pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices [45][46]

日度报告——综合晨报 中国 4 月金融数据多数不及预期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-15 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储副主席：预计经济增长将放缓，通胀或反弹但待观察 美联储官员表态经济稳健，因此不急于降息，美联储官员对于 经济短期看法明显乐观，美元维持震荡。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 韩国与美国就外汇政策展开对话 美国与中东国家的协议继续支撑科技板块上涨，股指表现分化， 纳指明显强于标普 500 和道琼斯指数。 综 宏观策略（国债期货） 合 4 月金融数据多数不及预期 晨 报 虽然财政正在积极发力，但私人部门仍然缺乏主动投融资意愿。 基本面对债市的影响依然是偏多的。 黑色金属（动力煤） 5 月 14 日北港市场动力煤价格弱势运行 伴随港口集中疏港，煤价下行压力一次性释放。后期来看，根 据天气预估，此轮夏季或再次呈现高温，火电增速有望在夏季 转至同比正增长。需求季节性回转将接替港口降库完成，煤 农产品（豆粕） 美国建议延长生物燃料税收抵免 美国众议院提议延长生物燃料税收抵免至 2031 年底，ANEC 将 巴西 5 月出口预估上调至 1426 万吨。昨日国内豆粕现货稳中有 跌 ...

热点报告——液化石油气 中美关税阶段性缓和，内外盘定价逻辑分化 | | [Table液_R化an石k]油气：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 14 | 日 [Table_Analyser] | | 走势评级： 报告日期： | | | | | | | [Table_Summary] ★中美关税缓和超预期，FEI/CP 价差显著收窄 关税缓和对国际纸货价格产生了明显的影响，中国进口美国货 可能性的提升支撑 6 月 FEI 纸货价格大幅上涨，同时此前 CP 价 格来自中国寻求美国货替代来源的支撑预期部分消退下有所回 落，FEI-CP 价差走强，但并未走强至对等关税加征前水平，6 月合约两者价差走强至-20 美元/吨后上行乏力。 能 源 结合当前的 LPG 商品基本面以及宏观环境仍存在不确定性的整 体情景，我们预计短期 FEI 向上和 CP 向下的进一步驱动相对有 限，CP 预计仍将较 FEI 表现偏强。 与 碳 ★ C4 需求疲弱叠加仓单压制下，关税缓和对内盘价格影响有限 中 和 相对于 ...

热点报告—锌 [★Ta宏bl观e_面Su：mm宏a观ry]利多阶段性出清，关税缓和递延需求走弱预期 关税缓和有几率带动锌终端需求发动新一轮抢出口，需求走弱预 期将有所递延。但即便排除关税，海外反倾销举措、买单出口等 因素依然会对锌下游出口形成压制。国内降准降息落地后，到下 一次联储降息前或存在政策真空期，宏观利多基本阶段性出清。 利多阶段性出清，基本面拐点将至 ★供应端：国内供应维持偏强释放预期 有 色 金 1Q25 海外出矿表现较好，大型项目和新项目增复产相对顺利， 部分海外炼厂进行主动减产，后续或有更多锌矿能流入国内。按 现有原料库存来估算，即便炼厂维持 4 月高位产量，矿端也难在 三季度中期前出现明显紧缺。在原料充裕和利润修复的双重支撑 下，炼厂具有较强的开工动能，预计 5 月下旬锌锭产量将有所修 复，且比价打开时间和幅度略超预期，后续或有更多进口锌流入。 属 ★需求端：内需承压预期递延而非消除 宏观来看，目前锌需求处于季节性走弱过程中。中观来看，新增 专项债实际发行规模和速度不及预期，基建实物工作量表现偏弱 且后续增量有限，关税缓和对耐用消费品的提振仍需持续观察。 微观来看，下游厂商受关税缓和刺激和担 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the US reached a tariff consensus, with both sides significantly reducing tariff levels, leading to a notable increase in market risk appetite [1][17]. - The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations has had a wide - ranging impact on various financial and commodity markets, including changes in prices and market sentiment [2][5]. - The long - term bullish logic of the bond market remains unchanged, and the impact of the easing of trade conflicts is mainly concentrated on the expected level [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed official Goolsbee believes tariffs will still cause stagflation. Gold prices continued to decline by over 3%, as the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, geopolitical military conflicts weakened, and market risk aversion eased [2][12]. - Short - term gold prices are under pressure and are expected to have further downward space [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "grand tax - cut bill" plans to cut taxes by over $4 trillion in the next decade and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion. Trump hinted at possibly participating in the Russia - Ukraine leaders' talks [15][16]. - The US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term due to the Sino - US tariff consensus and increased market risk appetite [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed Governor Kugler believes that Trump's tariff policy may still push up inflation and drag down economic growth. The Sino - US economic and trade joint statement significantly reduced bilateral tariff levels [19][21]. - The short - term strength of US stocks is supported by the easing of tariff negotiations, but there may be fluctuations in the subsequent negotiation process [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The Sino - US economic and trade talks made significant progress, and the central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [22][23]. - The long - term bullish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The USDA May report shows that the ending stocks of US cotton in 25/26 will increase slightly, and the global ending stocks will remain flat, with a bearish impact on the international cotton market [4][27]. - After the Sino - US consultations, Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate after a short - term bullish boost. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of domestic cotton commercial inventory depletion and Sino - US trade negotiations [29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA May report shows that the ending stocks of US soybeans in 25/26 are significantly lower than expected, and the soybean planting rate is higher than expected. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased [30][31]. - The easing of Sino - US relations will lead to a situation of weak domestic and strong foreign markets, and soybean meal spot prices will remain under pressure [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch remains high and firm. It is recommended to wait and see due to the complex influencing factors of the CS - C spread [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot prices of wheat and corn have risen. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 07 contract and positive spreads in 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 contracts [34][35]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market fluctuates. The short - term price of coking coal may stabilize with the improvement of the macro - environment, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals remain unchanged [36][37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The Sino - US trade negotiation progress drove up steel prices. The sales volume of excavators in April increased year - on - year, and the production and sales of automobiles from January to April exceeded 10 million for the first time [5][39]. - Steel prices are expected to continue the rebound pattern in the near future, and it is recommended to avoid short positions in the short term [41][42]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - High - grade silver - copper ore was discovered in Ireland's Ballywire multi - metal mine. Yunnan Copper plans to buy a 40% stake in Liangshan Mining [42][43]. - The Sino - US tariff reduction is beneficial to copper prices, but the weakening fundamentals will limit the increase. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [6][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots shows a slight downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spreads [48][49]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The production of zinc by Zijin Mining in the first quarter decreased, while New Century's zinc concentrate production increased. The inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased [50][52]. - Zinc has the value of short - selling allocation. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and high - level option selling opportunities [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are rumors that leading enterprises plan to control production and support prices. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the supply side and the possibility of demand exceeding expectations from May to June [55][56]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of 97 - grade silicon continues to decrease. It is recommended to partially stop profits on previous short positions and not to buy on the left side [57]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The installed capacity of power batteries in April increased year - on - year. Short - term fundamentals are mixed, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium - and long - term [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesian nickel enterprises are preparing for the potential impact of the Philippine nickel ore export ban. The price of nickel is expected to fluctuate within the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [60][62]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The reduction of China's import tariffs on the US has a positive impact on the international LPG market. Long - term FEI price increase momentum may be insufficient, and policy changes should be closely monitored [64]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iraq may cut oil exports slightly. The improvement of market risk appetite supports short - term oil prices, but supply - side risks still exist [65][66]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA increased, and the basis strengthened. PTA is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [67][68]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory accumulation of asphalt has slowed down. The futures price of asphalt is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The sowing progress of spring crops in Sichuan is over half. The urea market is expected to focus on exports, and the 9/1 spread is in a positive spread pattern in the short - to - medium - term [71][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports decreased. Short - term styrene may continue to rebound, and the medium - term depends on the recovery of 3S orders [74][76]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is rising, and the inventory is low. The short - term caustic soda futures price is expected to be strong [77][78]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp shows a differentiated trend. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs may drive the pulp futures price to rebound [79][81]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC in the domestic market slightly decreased. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs may drive the PVC price to rebound [82][83]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories have increased. Due to supply pressure, the processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low [84][86]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term and pay attention to the impact of maintenance on the 09 contract in the short - term [87]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Guangdong market remained stable. The glass futures price is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 18th week of 2025 (April 28 - May 4), the retail sales of passenger cars reached 420,000, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. The retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 203,000, a year - on - year increase of 38.4%. The new energy penetration rate was 48.4%, up 7.2 percentage points from the same period last year and down 4.6 percentage points from the previous week. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars have been 6.874 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%, and the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger cars have been 3.347 million, a year - on - year increase of 32.5%. The cumulative new energy penetration rate is 48.7% [2][13]. - The demand in the new energy vehicle market is clearly differentiated. Leading brands have consolidated their leading positions, but the market pattern is not fixed. New brands have brought new variables, and traditional car companies are achieving excellent performance in new energy sales [3][23]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Passenger Car Market Weekly Overview - **Overall Sales and Penetration Rate**: In the 18th week of 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars were 420,000, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. The retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 203,000, a year - on - year increase of 38.4%. The new energy penetration rate was 48.4%, up 7.2 percentage points from the same period last year and down 4.6 percentage points from the previous week. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars have been 6.874 million, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%, and the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger cars have been 3.347 million, a year - on - year increase of 32.5%. The cumulative new energy penetration rate is 48.7% [2][13]. - **Sales by Power Type**: Among passenger cars, traditional fuel, hybrid, and new energy vehicles sold 196,000, 20,000, and 203,000 respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 0.6%, 34.5%, and 38.4% respectively, accounting for 46.8%, 4.8%, and 48.4% of passenger cars. Among new energy passenger cars, pure - electric, plug - in hybrid, and extended - range vehicles sold 115,000, 64,000, and 25,000 respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 34.0%, 31.7%, and 92.5% respectively, accounting for 56.5%, 31.3%, and 12.2% of new energy passenger cars [18]. - **Sales by Production Attribute**: Among passenger cars, self - owned and joint - venture brands sold 264,000 and 156,000 respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 31.6% and - 0.4% respectively, accounting for 62.9% and 37.1% of passenger cars. Among new energy passenger cars, self - owned and joint - venture brands sold 187,000 and 17,000 respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 47.3% and - 18.0% respectively, accounting for 91.9% and 8.1% of new energy passenger cars [18]. 3.2 Key New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers' Sales Analysis 3.2.1 BYD - Weekly sales were 65,000, with BYD brand selling 62,000, and Denza, Fangchengbao, and Yangwang brands selling 3,000, 2,000, and 19 respectively. Since March 2022, BYD has stopped the production of fuel vehicles and focused on new energy vehicles. Since March this year, it has released the super e - platform and launched new cars such as Denza N9, Yangwang U7, and Fangchengbao Titanium 3 [24]. 3.2.2 Geely Automobile - Weekly sales were 40,000, with 22,000 being new energy vehicles (3,000 from the ZEEKR brand), and the electrification rate reached about 55%. In 2024, the company released the "Taizhou Declaration". The Geometry brand was incorporated into the Galaxy brand. Recently, Geely acquired ZEEKR. The 2025 sales target is 2.71 million, with Geely, ZEEKR, and Lynk & Co brands targeting 2 million, 320,000, and 390,000 respectively, and the new energy vehicle sales target is 1.5 million [27]. 3.2.3 SAIC - GM - Wuling - The overall weekly sales of passenger cars were 14,000, with 12,000 being new energy vehicles, and the electrification rate was about 86%. Recently, Wuling Hongguang launched an extended - range version, and Baojun launched the "Baojun Xiangjing" with plug - in hybrid and pure - electric options, but pure - electric models still dominate in sales [35]. 3.2.4 Changan Automobile - The overall weekly sales of passenger cars were 24,000, with 11,000 being new energy vehicles, and the electrification rate was about 47%. Its new energy brands Shenlan and Qiyuan sold more than 4,000 and 3,000 respectively. In addition, Avita, a joint venture with Huawei and CATL, sold about 2,000 [40]. 3.2.5 Chery Automobile - The overall weekly sales of passenger cars were 24,000, with 7,000 being new energy vehicles, and the electrification rate was about 30%. Its new energy brands iCAR, Chery New Energy, and Zhijie (a brand under Hongmeng Zhixing) each sold about 1,000 [48]. 3.2.6 Tesla - The sales of Tesla (China) in that week were 7,324. Model 3 sold 1,987 and Model Y sold 5,337. This year, Tesla has launched multiple promotions, such as the "biggest discount package ever" for Model 3 after the Spring Festival and new promotions in April [54]. 3.2.7 New - Force Car Manufacturers - Li Auto sold 11,000, mostly L - series models. Wenjie sold about 7,000, with a significant month - on - month increase. The new car M8 was launched on April 16 and started delivery on April 20. Leapmotor, Xiaomi, and XPeng each sold about 6,000, NIO sold about 5,000, and Aion sold about 4,000 [56][57].