Group 1: Tariff Adjustments Overview - Trump's recent reciprocal tariff adjustments categorize countries into three groups based on economic size and negotiation progress[1] - Major economies like China, the UK, India, and the EU saw no new tariff changes, indicating a potential return to rationality in Trump's tariff policy[1] - Japan and South Korea are under pressure for tariff adjustments due to slow negotiation progress and high geopolitical reliance on the US[1] Group 2: Specific Tariff Changes - 14 countries received updated tariff rates, with Japan and South Korea facing potential increases while countries like Cambodia saw reductions of up to 13%[2][3] - The new tariff rates for 11 of the 14 countries are whole numbers, suggesting a degree of subjectivity in the adjustments[3] - The deadline for tariff exemptions for countries other than China has been extended to August 1, 2025, while China's exemption remains valid until August 12, 2025[2][4] Group 3: Negotiation Dynamics - The adjustments appear to be more about leveraging negotiations rather than substantial tariff increases, as indicated by Trump's willingness to reconsider if countries express a desire to negotiate differently[10] - The focus on East Asian and Southeast Asian countries suggests ongoing strategic considerations in US-China relations, with Japan and South Korea as key negotiation points[11]

Core Insights - As of July 4, 2025, the interest rate timing model has maintained a bullish signal since June, indicating a stable upward trend in the bond market [1][10] - The model's predictions align with the actual performance of the TL bond, which rose by 1.01 yuan, a 0.85% increase in June [1][10] Model Performance Review - The timing model effectively identified multiple buying windows in 2024, with a high correlation between predicted results and periods of declining interest rates [2][11] - Since May 14, 2024, the strategy's net value reached 1.179, outperforming the benchmark net value (TL) by a cumulative excess of 4.22% [2][17] - The model demonstrated strong excess return capabilities during bullish cycles but showed significant drawdowns during bearish periods, indicating a need for improvement in recognizing short-selling scenarios [2][14][17] Subsequent Optimization - The model's performance in bearish market conditions is limited due to insufficient training data from the newly listed 30-year Treasury futures (TL) [2][18] - To enhance the model's ability to identify bearish trends, historical data from the 10-year Treasury futures (T), which has a high price correlation with TL, will be utilized for training [2][19]

Market Overview - On July 8, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.84%, the STAR 50 climbed by 1.4%, the CSI 1000 went up by 1.27%, the ChiNext Index surged by 2.39%, and the Hang Seng Index gained 1.09% [4] - The best-performing sectors on July 8 were telecommunications (+2.89%), electric power equipment (+2.3%), electronics (+2.27%), building materials (+2.12%), and media (+1.73%). The worst-performing sectors included utilities (-0.37%), banking (-0.24%), household appliances (+0.21%), transportation (+0.22%), and pharmaceuticals (+0.31%) [4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on July 8 was 1,474.6 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 387 million Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Recommendations - The report highlights New Asia Electronics (605277) as a core supplier for Amphenol, with potential to enter the external wire market, which may enhance its valuation [5] - The recommendation logic is based on the company's collaboration with Amphenol to develop new technology that reduces reliance on imported equipment/materials, offering better cost-performance and product quality [5] - The company’s new technology has already been mass-produced in PCIe and is expected to be applied in 448G and PCIe 7.0, with potential entry into the 224G/448G market [5] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for New Asia Electronics from 2025 to 2027 are 4,023 million yuan, 4,742 million yuan, and 5,736 million yuan, with growth rates of 13.92%, 17.88%, and 20.96% respectively [5] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 181 million yuan, 229 million yuan, and 338 million yuan, with growth rates of 18.41%, 26.43%, and 47.68% respectively [5] - Earnings per share are expected to be 0.56 yuan, 0.71 yuan, and 1.04 yuan, with price-to-earnings ratios of 37, 29, and 20 times [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The current state of pet hospitals shows a fragmented supply that is awaiting consolidation, while demand is rapidly growing, revealing new opportunities [3][21] - The trend in pet hospitals is moving towards chain development, with a focus on classification integration and specialization [4][50] Summary by Sections 1. Current Development of Pet Hospitals - The supply side of pet hospitals in China is still in the early stages of scale and specialization, with a competitive landscape that is fragmented; the CR3 is only 13% in 2024, and the chain rate is about 25% [3][14] - The pet diagnosis market is expanding quickly, with pet hospitals accounting for nearly 60% of the market; structural opportunities exist, particularly with the increasing number of cats and higher single-consumption rates for dogs [22][31] 2. Development Trends of Pet Hospitals - The chain rate of pet hospitals has steadily increased from 5% in 2017 to 25% in 2024, indicating a fivefold growth [50] - The industry is moving towards a classification and integration model, with 70% of hospitals already offering specialized services, particularly in feline care [55][60]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The global AI sector remains highly prosperous, with continuous application development. Domestic telecom operators are experiencing a recovery in growth rates, and satellite internet is beginning to contribute to performance elasticity [4] - Telecom operators benefit from the ongoing promotion of the Digital China strategy, leading to stable overall business growth. Innovative businesses are growing faster and increasing their share, while new growth drivers continue to strengthen. Additionally, the reduction in capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is favorable for profit release [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Telecom Operators - China Mobile's Q2 revenue is projected to be between 285.85 billion and 288.70 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1%-2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 52.20 billion and 52.55 billion yuan, growing by 3.2%-3.9% [2] - China Telecom's Q2 revenue is expected to be between 132.80 billion and 134.10 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1%-2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 13.57 billion and 13.66 billion yuan, growing by 2.7%-3.4% [2] - China Unicom's Q2 revenue is expected to be between 101.30 billion and 102.00 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%-4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 3.795 billion and 3.855 billion yuan, growing by 5.6%-7.3% [2] - China Tower's Q2 revenue is projected to be between 24.88 billion and 25.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%-3.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 2.72 billion and 2.76 billion yuan, growing by 6.8%-8.4% [3] AI and Network Connection - The AI optical module sector is experiencing significant growth, with 800G optical modules continuing to ramp up production and 1.6T products entering mass production. Domestic companies are leading the industry and deeply participating in the global supply chain [3] - Zhongji Xuchuang's Q2 revenue is expected to be between 7 billion and 8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18%-34%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 1.75 billion and 2 billion yuan, growing by 30%-48% [3] AI Liquid Cooling - The trend towards liquid cooling in data centers is becoming more pronounced due to the increasing power consumption of AI servers. Yingwei's Q2 revenue is expected to be between 12 billion and 14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 24%-45% [6] - Oulu Tong's Q2 revenue is projected to be between 11 billion and 12 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22%-33% [7] AI Applications - The demand for AI servers is expected to grow steadily, benefiting from the development of the digital economy and AI computing power. Huqin Technology's Q2 revenue is projected to be between 350 billion and 365 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 51%-58% [8] Military Communication & Satellite Internet - Increased regional tensions are likely to lead to sustained investment in national defense construction, with communication and information technology being key investment areas. The domestic low-orbit satellite network is expected to continue advancing [11] - Changjiang Communication's Q2 revenue is expected to be between 2.3 billion and 3.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10%-63% [12]

Market Overview - On July 7, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.02%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.43%, the STAR Market 50 dropped by 0.66%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.24%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.21%. The Hang Seng Index also fell by 0.12% [4]. - The best-performing industries on July 7 were comprehensive (+2.57%), utilities (+1.87%), real estate (+1.68%), light industry manufacturing (+1.52%), and environmental protection (+1.1%). The worst-performing industries included coal (-2.04%), pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.97%), telecommunications (-0.77%), home appliances (-0.7%), and electronics (-0.67%) [4]. - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on July 7 was 1,227.1 billion yuan, with net inflow from southbound funds amounting to 12.067 billion Hong Kong dollars [4]. Key Insights Light Industry Manufacturing - The report emphasizes a trend in consumer growth industries, advocating for a balanced investment in value stocks [5]. - The market outlook indicates that the first half of 2025 saw insufficient national subsidies and weak overall consumption, leading to a structural growth in "new" consumption [5]. - The underlying logic of "new" consumption is attributed to generational shifts and changes in consumer attitudes during the economic transition period. Despite full pricing, mid-term performance growth is expected to digest valuations, making the second half of the year a clear investment focus for the sector [5]. - Key drivers include the sustained prosperity of new consumption and the performance turning point for traditional consumption [5]. - Recommendations include focusing on growth in consumer experience and prioritizing quality manufacturing stocks that have solidified their bottom lines [5]. Strategy Insights - The report projects that in Q3 2025, the domestic equity market may be dominated by local factors, suggesting banks as a stable investment while recommending balanced allocations in brokerage, military industry, and TMT sectors [6]. - The report notes a potential slowdown in the global trend of "de-dollarization" and emphasizes the need for rebalancing in dollar asset allocations. It suggests that U.S. stocks may show resilience beyond expectations, although caution is advised regarding potential inflationary pressures [6]. - Key factors to monitor include the expiration of the 90-day tariff exemption on China by the U.S. in mid-August and the earnings reports of U.S. stocks for Q2 2025 [7]. - The report highlights that the current dollar is likely entering a prolonged downtrend, with U.S. Treasury rates expected to remain high and volatile in Q3 2025 [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The industrial gas sector is experiencing a price upturn, with liquid oxygen showing a continuous year-on-year growth for three consecutive weeks [3][10] - The market for industrial gases in China is approximately 200 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 10% over the past five years [4][56] - The electronic gas sector is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of the semiconductor industry, with the global electronic gas market projected to exceed 50 billion yuan by 2025 [54][57] Price Tracking - In June, the average prices for liquid oxygen, liquid nitrogen, and liquid argon were 448 yuan/ton (up 4.7% month-on-month, up 0.5% year-on-year), 480 yuan/ton (up 6% month-on-month, up 5% year-on-year), and 629 yuan/ton (up 3.5% month-on-month, down 35.6% year-on-year) respectively [3][9] - As of July 3, the prices were 449 yuan/ton for liquid oxygen (up 1.4% month-on-month, up 3.5% year-on-year), 469 yuan/ton for liquid nitrogen (down 0.2% month-on-month, up 7% year-on-year), and 628 yuan/ton for liquid argon (down 1.1% month-on-month, down 27% year-on-year) [10] Supply and Demand Tracking - The operating load rate of air separation units in China is showing a rebound, with market supply tightening due to maintenance and increased self-use by major enterprises [36] - In June, the PMI was recorded at 49.7, indicating a slight improvement over the past two months [37] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include Hangyang Co., Ltd., with continuous recommendations for Qiaoyuan Co., Ltd. and Shangu Power, and suggestions to pay attention to HeYuan Gas, China Shipbuilding Special Gas, Guanggang Gas, Huate Gas, and Kaimeite Gas [55][56] - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic companies to increase their market share in the electronic gas sector, with a significant shift from foreign to domestic suppliers [53][57]

Group 1: Company Insights - The core viewpoint is that Haier's main business is stabilizing, and new business formats are accelerating, highlighting its strong growth and high dividend attributes [5][6] - The recommendation logic indicates that Haier is the leading men's clothing brand with high dividends, and its main brand is performing well compared to peers, with the potential for accelerated store openings in JD Outlet [5] - The main brand's revenue is expected to stabilize and show year-on-year growth, supported by improved marketing efforts and optimized channel quality [5][6] Group 2: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Haier from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 22,316 million, 24,796 million, and 26,621 million, with growth rates of 6.5%, 11.1%, and 7.4% respectively [6] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 2,411 million, 2,661 million, and 2,908 million, with growth rates of 11.7%, 10.4%, and 9.2% respectively [6] Group 3: Industry Insights - The banking sector is currently in a "bull market" phase, with the price-to-book (PB) ratio expected to recover from 0.5X to between 0.8X and 0.9X [7][8] - The report highlights that the banking sector is benefiting from a narrative of "asset scarcity" and potential incremental funding from insurance and public offerings [7][8] Group 4: Technology Sector Insights - The demand for AI reasoning is transforming the AI computing landscape, with ASIC chips offering low-cost, high-performance solutions compared to GPUs [13][14] - Investment opportunities are identified in AI networks, liquid cooling technologies, and specific companies like New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang, which are expected to benefit from the growth of ASIC technology [13][14]

Core Insights - The "TACO trade" has significantly influenced asset pricing and volatility since Trump's inauguration in January 2025, with a notable convergence in the contribution of fundamental data such as inflation and employment to asset pricing [1] - During Trump's pressure phase, it is advisable to buy safe-haven assets like gold and bonds, while sectors such as agriculture in A-shares, healthcare in Hong Kong, and utilities in the US stock market have shown relative stability [1] - In the retreat phase, equity assets are favored, with A-share financial and technology sectors performing better [1] - The current key risk overseas is the slow pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which raises concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy [1] TACO Trade Strategy Cases - Case I highlights the liquidity shock to global capital markets from reciprocal tariffs [2] - Case II discusses Trump's tariff pressure on the EU and its market implications [2] - Case III examines the interplay of interests between Musk and Trump, showcasing the TACO trade's dynamics [2] Deep Reasons for TACO Trade - The TACO trade stems from Trump's negotiation strategy of "seeking the upper hand" [3] - The Trump administration aims to balance multiple objectives in negotiations [3] - Non-US economies like China have gained more negotiating power [3] Asset-Level Review of TACO Trade - In the first half (January 13 - April 7), the market experienced a "stagflation trade" with US stocks declining, US bonds rising, and non-US currencies strengthening [4][23] - The second half (April 8 - July 4) saw a rebound in US stocks, with the Nasdaq rising 32% and the S&P 500 recovering significantly [4][24] Equity Sector Review of TACO Trade - In the first half, defensive sectors in A-shares outperformed, while technology and healthcare in Hong Kong showed strong performance [5][27] - In the second half, financial and military sectors in A-shares excelled, with Hong Kong's financial, healthcare, energy, and new consumption sectors also performing well [5][32] TACO Trade Outlook - The domestic equity market is expected to be "self-reliant," with recommendations to focus on banks as a stabilizing force and to balance investments in brokerages, military, and TMT sectors [6] - Globally, the trend of "de-dollarization" is anticipated to slow down, with a focus on rebalancing dollar asset allocations [6] - The potential for a "Buy The Dip" strategy remains effective, but caution is advised regarding the risk of stagflation [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong recovery in the steel sector driven by the "anti-involution" trend and emission reductions in Tangshan, suggesting that steel equities are undervalued [1] Summary by Sections Weekly Data - The SW Steel Index increased by 5.1% year-to-date, while the SW General Steel Index rose by 6.5% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is at 3,180 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 2.9% and a year-to-date increase of 6.7% [3] - Iron ore prices have shown a significant increase, with the Platts index at 96 USD/ton, up 20% year-to-date [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products stands at 915 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 20.7% [5] - Steel mill inventory is at 424 million tons, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 21.0% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is at 13,882 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 6.6% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to increase, indicating a potential rise in supply [10] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to remain stable, suggesting balanced demand [10] Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills is currently at 18.6%, indicating a healthy margin for major players [14]