Report Summary - **Report Date**: February 5, 2026 - **Report Source**: Baocheng Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, along with their core driving logics. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Performance**: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be strong, and the reference view is also strong. [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The sentiment in the US soybean market has improved, leading to a strong rebound in futures prices. However, the domestic fundamentals are weak. After the pre - holiday stocking by downstream users, the demand for soybean meal has declined, resulting in inventory accumulation. The high operating rate of oil mills has alleviated the expected shortage of soybean supply. The losses in the livestock farming sector further suppress the demand for soybean meal. At the end of the stocking period, terminal transactions have decreased, and the spot market is weak. Feed enterprises' inventories have increased, and the oil mills' production has been steadily increasing, so the supply pressure remains high. The short - term price of soybean meal will rebound following the US soybean futures prices, but the rebound amplitude will be restricted by domestic industrial chain pressure. [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Performance**: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be strong. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be moderately strong, and the reference view is also moderately strong. [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The core driver of the oil market comes from the proposed 45Z biofuel tax credit rule issued by the US Treasury Department, which allows the use of Canadian and Mexican raw materials, marginally benefiting the consumption of US soybean oil and strengthening the market's optimistic expectations for biofuel policies. Coupled with the increase in international oil prices due to geopolitical situations, the overnight CBOT soybean oil futures rose strongly, driving the overall domestic oil market higher. However, domestic fundamentals restrict the upward movement. Palm oil is supported by the expected improvement in Malaysia's supply - demand situation in January, but the high domestic inventory and light spot trading limit its upward space. In the short term, the palm oil market is mainly affected by sentiment and capital, with futures prices moderately strong. [7] Soybean Oil - **Price Performance**: - Short - term: 2605 contract is expected to be in a range - bound state. - Medium - term: 2605 contract is expected to be strong. - Intraday: 2605 contract is expected to be moderately strong, and the reference view is also moderately strong. [6] - **Core Logic**: It is supported by the cost of US soybeans, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term demand for thermal coal is strong, and factors such as continuous inventory reduction at northern ports and the replenishment demand of downstream terminal enterprises support a small rebound in coal prices. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals of thermal coal still face pressure. It is expected that coal prices will operate in a narrow range at a low level before the Spring Festival, and may maintain a slightly stronger short - term trend [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Main Varieties Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: The reference view is "oscillation" - **Core Logic**: In the critical period of peak winter, residential electricity consumption has improved significantly. With two weeks until the Spring Festival, industrial electricity consumption has not declined. In the short term, the daily coal consumption of power plants has reached the peak of the year, and the replenishment demand of downstream power plants and other terminal enterprises still exists, supporting a small rebound in coal prices. However, in the context of the peak season in January, the price of 5500K coal at ports only increased by 11 yuan/ton throughout the month, reflecting the weakness of the current coal fundamentals and the market's bearish expectation of the subsequent coal supply - demand pattern [4]

宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空因素交织，焦煤震荡整理 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 向上驱动有限，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：2 月 4 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约低开低走，未延 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 黑色情绪回暖，钢矿震荡企稳 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.13%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应压力有所增加，而需求表现偏弱，基本面延续季节性弱势， 淡季钢价承压运行，相对利好的是成本支撑，预计走势延续低位震荡运 行，关注库存变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.18%日涨幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷供需两端均维持高位，基本面弱势运行，相对利好则是成本支 撑，预计热卷价格延续震荡运行，且需谨防需求走弱引发产业矛盾易激 化，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.32%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，海外供应企稳，且库存高企，矿石供应压力偏大，相应的矿石需 求偏弱运行，矿市基本面表现不佳，预计矿价继续承压，偏弱震荡运 行，关注钢厂补库情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜表现强势 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜主力期价整体围绕 10.5 万一线震荡运行，日内下探至 10.4 万下方，沪铜持仓量小幅上升。从盘面来看，前期悲观情绪得 到释放，市场氛围有所回暖，尾盘白银拉升带动有色盘面普涨。产 业层面，SMM 报道，隔月 Contango 月差小幅走扩，进一步促使持货 商将部分货源转为仓单，限制现货流动性进一步收紧。部分冶炼厂 选择备货交割，叠加持货商惜售挺价情绪明显，市场中可交易现货 有限，将支撑现货 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂震荡企稳 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 147220 元/吨，较前日 下跌 880 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 152920 元/吨，较前日下跌 0.36%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为 4260 点，正基差（现货升水），较前日 走弱 3910 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走强。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量为 3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-04 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。经历短期大幅回调以后，油市利空情绪得到释放。由于中东地缘风险依然存在，且 北半球处在冬季用油旺季阶段，偏多氛 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report predicts that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. Although the upward momentum is insufficient due to the low possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts in the short - term, there is still strong support because of the expected loose monetary and credit environment in the future [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "fluctuation and consolidation" with the core logic being the reduced possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts in the short - term [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties TL, T, TF, and TS have an intraday view of "weakening" and a medium - term view of "fluctuation", with a reference view of "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. With the announcement of the new Fed Chairman candidate, the expectation of a hawkish shift in Fed monetary policy has increased. After the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is low, weakening the upward momentum. However, macroeconomic indicators have weakened, there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 基本面表现偏弱，矿价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需弱势格局未变，库存高位攀升，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗低位运行，而钢市产业 矛盾累积，需求弱势格局将延续，继续抑制矿价走势。与此同时，国内港口到货低位回升，而矿商发 运则是持续增加，海外矿石供应企稳，相应的内矿供应平稳，叠加库存高企，供应压力未 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line, with the steel price oscillating at a low level due to the weak and stable industrial pattern [2] - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, with increased supply pressure and weakening demand. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season but is supported by costs, and it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, with attention to inventory changes [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is the weak and stable industrial pattern and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. The inventory increase has widened, production has risen to a relatively high level, and supply pressure has increased. However, short - process steel mills are expected to cut production as the Spring Festival approaches [3] - Rebar demand is declining weakly, with high - frequency demand indicators decreasing month - on - month and at a low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The demand pattern remains weak and continues to drag down steel prices [3] - The fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season. The positive factor is cost support, and the trend is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, with attention to inventory changes [3]