Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a record high of over $3,685 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The increase in gold prices is attributed to market speculation regarding potential monetary policy changes [1] - The current price level indicates a significant rise in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainty [1]

报告日期：2025 年 9 月 16 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：金价上行，双焦强势 据央视新闻，中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢说，关于 TikTok 问 题，中国一贯反对将科技和经贸问题政治化、工具化、武器化，绝不会以牺牲原 则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代价，寻求达成任何协议。中美双方就以合 作方式妥善解决 TikTok 相关问题等达成了基本框架共识。8 月社会消费品零售 同比增速放缓至 3.4%，8 月规模以上工业增加值同比 5.2%，装备制造业和高技 术制造业增势较好。1-8 月全国固定资产投资增长 0.5%，制造业投资增长 5.1%。 1-8 月房地产开发投资同比下降 12.9%，新建商品房销售面积同比下降 4.7%。 重点品种：焦煤、黄金、玻璃 焦煤：昨日夜盘双焦主力合约延续强势，焦煤持仓环比明显增加。从上周公布的 钢联数据来看，累库仍由螺纹贡献、热卷库存环比微幅下降，整体表需环比增加、 增量主要源于热卷，建材与板材之间进一步分化，铁水产量快速恢复，将进一步 加剧成材的供应的压力，叠加第二轮焦炭提降预期的出现、成材利润持续走缩、 以及同期低位的近远月价差均会对盘面走势形成压力，但 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Data - GDP in Q2 2025 grew 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.4% in the previous quarter but up from 4.7% in the same period last year [1] - In August 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% last year; the Non-Manufacturing PMI: Business Activity was 50.3%, up from 50.1% in the previous month and the same as last year [1] - Social financing scale increment in August 2025 was not provided, with the previous month at 25668.00 billion yuan and last year at 30323.00 billion yuan [1] - In August 2025, M0 grew 11.7% year-on-year, down from 11.8% in the previous month and 12.2% last year; M1 grew 6.0%, up from 5.6% in the previous month and -3.0% last year; M2 grew 8.8%, the same as the previous month and up from 6.3% last year [1] - New RMB loans in August 2025 were 5900.00 billion yuan, up from -500.00 billion yuan in the previous month but down from 9000.00 billion yuan last year [1] - CPI in August 2025 decreased 0.4% year-on-year, down from 0.0% in the previous month and 0.6% last year; PPI decreased 2.9%, up from -3.6% in the previous month but down from -1.8% last year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to August 2025 grew 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.6% in the previous period and 3.4% last year [1] - Total retail sales of consumer goods from January to August 2025 grew 4.64% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous period but up from 3.4% last year [1] - In August 2025, export value grew 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in the previous month and 8.6% last year; import value grew 1.3%, down from 4.1% in the previous month but up from 0.03% last year [1] Group 2: Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From September 14 - 15, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Madrid, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues like TikTok and reducing investment barriers [2][15][16] - The "Xiamen Initiative for Global Supply Chain Development and Stability" was released, aiming to maintain the multilateral trading system [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the maximum order volume for option trading from September 17 [2] - In the first eight months of 2025, China's trade with ASEAN grew 9.7% year-on-year, with ASEAN remaining China's largest trading partner [2][3] - China's Ministry of Commerce launched an anti-dumping investigation on US analog chips, and the State Administration for Market Regulation announced an investigation on NVIDIA [3] - In August 2025, China's industrial added value grew 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month; the service production index grew 5.6% year-on-year; total retail sales of consumer goods grew 3.4% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month. From January to August, fixed asset investment grew 0.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing 5.1% and real estate development investment falling 12.9% [3][16] - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates. The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, and analysts expect the Fed to start a new round of rate cuts in September [4][19] Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose. Gold hit a new high, with London spot gold rising nearly $40 and COMEX gold rising nearly 1% [5] - India's gold imports in August were $5.14 billion, and oil imports were $13.2 billion [5] - Thailand's central bank met with gold traders after the baht's appreciation, planning to take measures to reduce the impact of gold trading on the baht [5] - Thailand is considering taxing physical gold transactions to slow the baht's appreciation [5] - On September 12, lead, copper, zinc, and nickel inventories decreased, while tin inventory increased, and aluminum and cobalt inventories remained stable [6] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - A second round of coke price cuts is coming, with prices in Tangshan and Xingtai set to be reduced [8] - In August 2025, China's raw coal production decreased 3.2% year-on-year, crude oil production grew 2.4%, and natural gas production grew 5.9% [8] - In August 2025, China's crude steel production decreased 0.7% year-on-year, pig iron production grew 1.0%, and steel production grew 9.7% [8] Energy and Chemicals - Fujian plans to accelerate the construction of offshore wind power projects [9] - The US wants the G7 and NATO to impose 50% - 100% tariffs on China for buying Russian oil, which China firmly opposes [9][10] - HSBC predicts a large oil surplus from Q4 2025 (1.7 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026) [10] - If Western inventories increase, the expected price of Brent crude at $65 per barrel in 2026 may face downward pressure [10] - Woodside Energy's CEO expects LNG demand to grow 50% in the next decade [11] Agricultural Products - Market regulators are soliciting public opinions on regulations for the road bulk transportation of key liquid foods [12] - Arabica coffee beans reached $4 per pound for the first time since April [13] Group 3: Financial News Open Market - On September 15, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of 6 - month买断式逆回购 and 280 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase. After deducting the maturing amount, the net investment was 88.5 billion yuan [14] Important News - An important article by Xi Jinping on building a unified national market was published, emphasizing the need to address low - price competition [15] - Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues like TikTok and reducing investment barriers [2][15][16] - China opposes politicizing the TikTok issue and will safeguard national and corporate interests [16] - China's economic data for August 2025 showed stable growth in industry, services, and consumption, with fixed asset investment growing 0.5% from January to August [3][16] - The National Bureau of Statistics said the economy was generally stable in August but faced external challenges [17] - In August 2025, the prices of new commercial housing in first - tier cities decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, with Shanghai showing an increase [17] - The "2025 China's Top 500 Enterprises" list was released, with manufacturing and service enterprises' revenue accounting for 40.48% and 40.29% respectively [17] - Rules for public bond - type fund applications have changed, with new requirements for registration time and the number of pending products [18] - The Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau updated the "Trust Company Management Measures" [18] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange introduced policies to facilitate cross - border investment and financing [18] - Many private banks issued large - denomination certificates of deposit with attractive interest rates, but they were often quickly sold out [19] - Some Hong Kong - listed companies issued zero - coupon convertible bonds [19] - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates, and the market expects a rate cut in September due to rising unemployment [4][19] - Several companies had major events such as asset restructuring and equity transfers [20] - Some companies received overseas credit ratings [20] Bond Market - After China's economic data in August, the yield of long - term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose slightly at the end of the session, while Treasury bond futures closed up [21] - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose and some fell, with the Wande Real Estate Bond 30 Index and High - Yield Urban Investment Bond Index rising [21] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.72%, and the Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.81% [22] - Money market rates showed mixed trends, with some rising and some falling [22][23] - The yields of European and US government bonds fell across the board [24] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1228, down 4 points from the previous day, and the central parity rate was 7.1056, down 37 points [25] - The US dollar index fell 0.26%, and most non - US currencies rose [25] Research Reports - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that the credit bond market is favorable in September, and a short - duration strategy is recommended [27] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the bond market may stabilize in the short term but may face upward pressure on yields in the medium term [27] - Shenwan Fixed Income thinks the current bond market risk comes from the redemption pressure of fixed - income products, and it is in a risk - releasing stage [27] - Huatai Fixed Income believes that new regulations may reshape the bond market, and the bond market may take a break in the short term [28] - Hongze Fixed Income believes that quasi - fixed - income products will play a key role in the rising asset yield environment [28] Group 4: Stock Market - On Monday, the A - share market showed a mixed trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index rising 1.51%. The trading volume was 2.3 trillion yuan [31] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.22%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.91%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.21%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$14.473 billion [31] Group 5: Bond Information for September 16 - 227 bonds will be listed [30] - 179 bonds will be issued [30] - 88 bonds will have payments [30] - 142 bonds will have principal and interest payments [30]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend across different commodities, with some expected to be volatile, some bullish in the short - term, and others bearish or with a neutral outlook [1][2][4]. - Geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and economic indicators significantly influence commodity prices [2][9]. Summary by Commodity Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks support short - term oil prices, but supply surplus and weak US demand may suppress prices in the medium - term; it is recommended to trade cautiously in the short - term [2]. Natural Gas - Not covered in the given content. Metals Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments are rising, arrivals are fluctuating slightly, iron - water production is high and stable, and port inventories are expected to accumulate. Short - term prices may be strongly volatile [4]. Steel (including Rebar) - Cost increases drive steel prices up, but considering the balanced supply - demand in the steel market, continuous price increases are doubtful; short - term prices may be strongly volatile [4]. Copper - Not covered in the given content. Aluminum - Not covered in the given content. Gold - Before the interest - rate cut is realized, the price trend is bullish; after the cut, it may follow the expected realization trend. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations [9]. Silver - Before the interest - rate cut, the price is expected to be bullish; after the cut, it may enter an expected realization phase. The influence of gold price fluctuations on silver should be monitored [9]. Agricultural Products Corn - Not covered in the given content. Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term due to strong new - grain harvest expectations and cautious attitudes of grain trading enterprises. The upward price space is limited [7]. Wheat - Not covered in the given content. Cotton - Not covered in the given content. Palm Oil - Floods in Malaysia's palm - oil producing areas and strong demand in India support the price. Domestic demand is weakening. In the short - term, the price is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. Pork - The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the price continues to adjust weakly. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of large farms and demand recovery [5]. Chemicals PX - As PX maintenance units restart, supply increases to a high level. Although there is some short - term demand support, the expected increase in new orders and production load is limited. The supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [8]. Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories continue to accumulate. The short - term price of the 01 contract is expected to be volatile [10]. Polyethylene (including LLDPE) - LLDPE prices are weak, supply is high, production enterprise inventories are rising, downstream demand is expected to increase, and cost support is strengthening. The short - term price of the L2601 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [13]. PVC - Not covered in the given content. Rubber - Overseas raw material prices are resilient, port inventories are decreasing due to pre - holiday stocking, and the price is slightly rising. It is currently in a low - inventory and weak - demand situation and is expected to be volatile [8]. Others Tires - Not covered in the given content. Paper - Not covered in the given content. Glass - Float glass production is stable, inventories are slightly decreasing, and the trading atmosphere in the East China market is average. The domestic soda - ash market is in an adjustment phase, with supply slightly decreasing and downstream demand being mainly for replenishing stocks as needed [12]. Soda Ash - The short - term price of the 01 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or make short - term long positions on price corrections [12]. Coke - Coking enterprises still have profits, supply is becoming more abundant, and the futures price is expected to be volatile after two rounds of price cuts. Attention should be paid to iron - water production during the peak season [1].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's meeting on interest rates is scheduled for September 17, with a 100% probability of a rate cut, 95.9% chance of a 25 basis points cut, and 4.1% chance of a 50 basis points cut [1] - The Hong Kong stock market has been active due to rate cut expectations, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index opening higher, and ETFs focused on AI and internet sectors rising over 1% [1] - There is a market expectation of a total rate cut of 75 basis points within the year, with the CME Federal Funds futures model indicating three rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the medium - and long - term strategy for the stock index is to buy on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [3]. - In the bond market, with weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates may decline, but the short - term outlook is for a volatile recovery, considering the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. - The current macro background is favorable for precious metals, especially silver. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to show a strong or volatile - strong trend. For example, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, etc. are affected by factors such as Fed policy expectations, industry fundamentals, and supply - demand relationships [8][9][11]. - In the black building materials sector, although the short - term prices may have a callback risk due to weak real - time demand, in the future, with overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of domestic policy space, the sector may gradually have multi - allocation value [31]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended for multi - allocation, while methanol and urea have different strategies based on their supply - demand and inventory situations [42][43]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products such as pigs, eggs, and grains have different supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these situations [55][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **News**: Articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published, NVIDIA is under investigation, black - series futures rose, a press conference on service consumption policies is upcoming, and Tesla's stock price reached a new high [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided. After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have diverged, and the short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the medium - and long - term strategy is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. Economic data in August showed a slowdown, and the central bank conducted net capital injections [4]. - **Strategy**: With weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates may decline, but the short - term bond market is expected to recover in a volatile manner [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver rose, while COMEX gold slightly declined and COMEX silver rose. Trump's remarks and the expected Fed policy have increased the market's expectation of a dovish Fed stance. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market**: Affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's expected policy, copper prices rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [8]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract being 80600 - 82000 yuan/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Market**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, but aluminum prices rose. Downstream consumption is in the peak season, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to be strong [9]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the domestic main contract is 20960 - 21200 yuan/ton [9]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed a short - term strong trend. Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and the import window closed. The short - term outlook is for a strong trend [10][11]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices broke through the shock range. Lead concentrate is in short supply, and downstream demand is improving. The short - term outlook is for a strong trend [12][13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices fluctuated. Refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, but in the medium - and long - term, nickel prices are supported by policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [14]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices fluctuated. Supply decreased, and demand improved marginally. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: Carbonate lithium prices rose. Demand expectations are optimistic, and lithium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [16]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2511 contract is 71000 - 74600 yuan/ton [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices rose. The supply - side has an over - capacity situation, but the Fed's expected policy may drive the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices rose. Raw material prices recovered, and it is recommended to be bullish on stainless steel [18][19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices were at a high level. Downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and prices are expected to remain high [20]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the AD2511 contract is 20450 - 20650 yuan/ton [20]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. The overall commodity market atmosphere improved, but steel prices showed a weak trend. Rebar demand is weak, while hot - rolled coil demand is relatively strong [22][23]. - **Outlook**: If demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline further [24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices fluctuated. Supply increased, and demand was supported in the short - term. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Glass prices rose. Industry supply increased slightly, and inventory decreased. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices rose. Industry supply decreased slightly, and demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. They are expected to follow the black sector, but their independent strong trends are difficult to form [29][30]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [30]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon prices rose. Supply increased, and demand improved marginally. The short - term valuation is neutral, and it is necessary to pay attention to industry policies [33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon prices fluctuated. Supply was high, and demand was mainly for rigid needs. The short - term market is affected by policies [35][36]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices rebounded. Supply and demand factors coexist, and the medium - term outlook is bullish, while the short - term outlook is neutral [38][39]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or trade quickly [41]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil prices rose. Geopolitical premiums have disappeared, but OPEC's actions are seen as a market pressure test. It is recommended for multi - allocation [42]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices rose. Port inventory is high, but demand is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider 1 - 5 positive spreads [43]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices rose. Domestic inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [44]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices fell, and futures prices rose. BZN spreads are expected to repair, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the pure benzene US - South Korea spread [45][46]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of upward fluctuations [47]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is high, and inventory is expected to increase in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of risks [48]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose. Supply is affected by unexpected maintenance, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. p - Xylene - **Market**: p - Xylene prices rose. Supply is high, and demand from downstream PTA is affected by maintenance. It is recommended to wait and see [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE futures prices rose. Cost support exists, and demand is expected to improve. Prices are expected to fluctuate upward [52]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP futures prices rose. Supply pressure is high, and demand is recovering seasonally. The short - term trend is not clear [53]. Agricultural Products Category Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is general. It is recommended to pay attention to potential rebound opportunities and short - sell after rebounds [55]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable with some increases. Supply is stable, and demand is normal. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long positions in the distant month after a decline [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans fell slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is uncertain. It is recommended to trade within a range [57][58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Three major domestic oils fluctuated. Supply and demand factors coexist, and the medium - term outlook is bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips after a decline [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices fluctuated. Domestic and foreign markets are bearish, and the overall outlook is bearish [62][63]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices fluctuated. Supply and demand factors coexist, and short - term prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [64][65].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increase in gold and silver futures prices due to a weaker dollar and stronger oil prices, alongside positive trade negotiation news between China and Spain [1] - The most active gold futures for December 2025 rose by $33.1 to close at $3,719.5 per ounce, marking a 0.90% increase [1] - Silver futures for December delivery increased by $0.36 to close at $43.190 per ounce, reflecting a 0.84% rise [1] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings downgraded France's government credit rating from AA- to A+, citing rising public debt and political instability [1] - The market is anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point interest rate cut [1] - Some fund managers speculate that the Federal Reserve's actions may be more aggressive than market expectations, with a potential surprise cut of 50 basis points that could accelerate gold price increases [1] Group 3 - The ongoing criticism of the Federal Reserve's independence by the Trump administration, along with inflation driven by tariffs, is leading to signs of stagflation in financial markets [1] - Analysts believe this trend may result in gold replacing the dollar as the primary store of value [1]

每经AI快讯，9月16日，金价升至每盎司3685美元上方的纪录高位，受降息预期推动。 ...

备受瞩目的美联储利率决议即将到来之际，美东时间周一，美股三大指数收盘集体收涨，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数均创下历史新高。截至收盘，道琼 斯指数涨0.11%，报45883.45点；纳斯达克指数涨0.94%，报22348.75点；标普500指数涨0.47%，报6615.28点。 谷歌收涨4.5%，成为第4家突破3万亿美元市值的美国上市公司。降息预期环境之下，黄金再创新高。伦敦现货黄金日内涨超40美元，历史首次站上3680 美元/盎司，最高触及3685.524美元/盎司。 美国总统特朗普的经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰在周一参议院的一项关键投票后即将加入美联储理事会，并计划于当日晚些时候进行最终确认投票。 此外，特朗普正在推动美国上市公司采用每六个月发布一次报告的时间表，而不是目前的季度报告格式，以"节省资金，并让管理人员专注于妥善运营公 司"。 美股三大指数集体收涨 美东时间周一，美股三大指数收盘集体收涨，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数均创下历史新高。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.11%，报45883.45点；纳斯达克指 数涨0.94%，报22348.75点；标普500指数涨0.47%，报6615.28点。 | 道琼斯 | 纳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in various commodities, highlighting the strength of gold prices and the performance of coking coal, while also addressing the economic indicators from China and the U.S. that influence these markets [1][3][5]. Economic Indicators - In August, China's retail sales growth slowed to 3.4% year-on-year, while industrial output increased by 5.2% [1]. - Fixed asset investment in China grew by 0.5% from January to August, with manufacturing investment rising by 5.1% [1]. - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, and new housing sales fell by 4.7% [1]. - U.S. inflation data showed an increase in CPI to 2.9% year-on-year in August, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts [3]. Commodity Analysis Coking Coal - Coking coal futures continued to show strength, with a notable increase in positions. The market is experiencing a high-level fluctuation due to various pressures, including supply chain dynamics and policy expectations [2][22]. Gold - Gold and silver prices are on the rise, driven by inflation data and expectations of interest rate cuts. The market is speculating on potential rate cuts of 50 basis points, with a neutral expectation of three cuts by the end of the year [3][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures showed a slight rebound, with inventory levels decreasing. The market is focused on supply-side adjustments and the potential for improved demand in the autumn [4][17]. Other Commodities - The article also touches on the performance of other commodities such as copper, zinc, and lithium, indicating mixed trends influenced by supply and demand dynamics [19][20][21].